My Case for Grant Desme at #5

I'm as much of an upside guy as anyone appears to be here, but I'm a bit concerned

that Desme’s upside is negatively affected by his age. On offense, players tend to improve less and less as they approach 27-28, and they get worse defensively from about 23-25 onward. Desme’s tools may say he has a high upside, but his age and his strikeouts put that into question. All that being said, I’ll probably vote for him pretty soon after I can stop voting for Ynoa.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 7, 2009 7:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I cannot comprehend this love...

For Ynoa. The kid is a kid and nothing More just like Bryce Harper. They can look as big as they want show as much power and velocity as they want but in the end baseball is a skilled sport more so than any other major US sport. He has so far to go before he should percentage wise be in the top 20 it is ridiculous. His chances of never seeing the majors outweighs most good to average prospects in the system. I love a high upside prospect but we’ve got another couple of years before we are is he is even the least bit legit.

by throttle mathius on Oct 7, 2009 9:29 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Bryce Harper would be near the top of most teams prospect lists from most publications though

by DeJay on Oct 8, 2009 1:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but he isn't the berst thing since sliced bread

he is being way over hyped and isn’t really a generational talent like Strausburg or Ynoa.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I cannot comprehend this love...

For Ynoa. The kid is a kid and nothing More just like Bryce Harper. They can look as big as they want show as much power and velocity as they want but in the end baseball is a skilled sport more so than any other major US sport. He has so far to go before he should percentage wise be in the top 20 it is ridiculous. His chances of never seeing the majors outweighs most good to average prospects in the system. I love a high upside prospect but we’ve got another couple of years before we see if he is even the least bit legit.

by throttle mathius on Oct 7, 2009 9:31 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

The love for Ynoa comes from his ridiculous potential.

Think for a second about Beane, our frugal leader. The man spent over $4MM to get this kid into the A’s organization—the highest bonus ever given to an international player. Some of the scouting reports on Ynoa called him a “once in a decade talent.” He got the kind of reports Felix Hernandez received when he was a prospect.

He was 6’7", 205 lbs at the time of his signing as a 16 year old who had been hitting 96 on the radar gun. A GM won’t just dish out $4MM on a player unless he is legit. In all likelihood, he probably won’t turn into Felix, but he has that potential. You can count the number of King-Felix-potential prospects on one hand, and the only reason he’s not the consensus #1 is because he hasn’t appeared in a professional game yet.

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Oct 7, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The age is a concern

But he is not a typical 23 year old with 3-5 years of minor league development and wear behind him. He is an unusual case and will follow an unusual path.

I look more to his years in pro ball more than his age. The age just means he is that much closer to 30 and an actual physical decline. But if he continues to develop and reaches the majors by 26 or 27 at the latest, we could still get 4-5 very good years out of him before we really need to start worrying about his age.

Even if he ends up being Nelson Cruz, thats still very valuable.

by DrDoom on Oct 7, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, half of a 28-year-old Keith Ginter valuable.

Woo hoo.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 7, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That probably means you'll never vote for Desme.

I’ll bet he makes the list before Ynoa does.

(I don’t expect to vote for Desme either.)

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 7, 2009 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which is silly

since if you only care about upside you should be voting for Ynoa over Desme. If you care about likelihood you should vote for a whole host of people over Desme.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 12:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What if you don't care about upside OR likelihood

but are mostly interested in put-up-amazing-numbers-in-the-most-recent-season?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 8, 2009 1:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then that would be logical, but still a silly way to rank prospects.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Ynoa weren't already hurt

I think he would belong in the top 5. But he hasn’t done anything since we signed him. He still probably belongs in the top 5 based on how these things are typically listed, but I think as fans we get more attached to the guys who are actually playing.

I doubt any journalist or scout will have Donaldson, Brown or Desme ahead of Ynoa. But we have developed attachments to those guys so our list will look different.

by DrDoom on Oct 8, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are making a fallacious argument

The goal of this list is to rank prospects according to their value, however we as a community define value, not to create a list that mirrors the “expert” scouts or journalists.

What you are doing is appealing to authority, which is a logical fallacy.

Desme has had two good years since 2005, his senior year of college and last year, otherwise he has been hurt or sucked. Ynoa has generational talent and a much much higher ceiling as well as being 6 years younger than Desme. Furthermore you could make a good argument that getting a pitcher through the injury nexis without putting a lot of competitive innings on their arm is a good thing.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You misunderstand me

I am stated that our list will look different than the typical prospect lists. I am not saying either is right or wrong. Just stating that they are the way they are. Ynoa will be top 5 according to the “experts”. I don’t have him there. So I am not appealing to authority. At the same time if someone wants to put him in the top 5, I certainly won’t argue with them.

Desme hasn’t sucked since 2005 by the way. He has been awesome or hurt.

by DrDoom on Oct 8, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

no he sucked in his first two collegiant seasons

and was hurt.

Deseme’s post HS career breaks down like this:

Years Sucked 2
Years Hurt 1.5
Years awesome 1.5

when sucked + hurt > awesome then you have to be concerned.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He hasn't sucked

since he became awesome. He figured something out at some point and has not regressed.

He sucked for 2 years of college and was good for 1 year of college. Because that 1 year was the last year, he became a high draft pick despite a serious injury. Billy Beane disagrees with your logic.

by DrDoom on Oct 8, 2009 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

or Billy Beane out bid everyone for Ynoa

and didn’t pass him up 3 times in the draft.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

and if Ynoa is top 5 he will be #5

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sorry DFA, I'm a little confused...

you are saying that an appeal to authority is a logical fallacy? b/c it’s not. An improper or questionable appeal to authority is a logical fallacy. That meaning that if someone were to draw conclusions about where A’s prospects should be ranked based off rankings done by, say, a basketball analyst- that would be a logical fallacy. But simply forming an opinion based off reading the writing of a baseball analyst who is believed to be in-the-know is not a logical fallacy.

Yes, we are trying to create a list that doesn’t simply mirror the opinion of a respected baseball analyst like, say, Sickels. But let’s not cloud the fact that to varying degrees we all form some kind of opinion, or at least reinforce an opinion, about a player based off what we read from scouts and journalists. We need to appeal to these authorities b/c we do not actually possess the ability to see (for the most part) these players actually play.

So what I’m confused about is why you are saying that appealing to authority is wrong when your last fanpost, in regards to Donaldson, was partly based off of quotes from scouts in order to help reiforce your argument that he can play third.

by MAC Attack on Oct 8, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Saying that our list is flawed because it doesn't mirror "experts" is an improper appeal to authority

the success of the list is its ability to predict the future for the prospects. Dismissing an argument because experts do not agree with it is an appeal to authority.

My post uses a array of sources to make a conclusion about a specific point which isn’t an improper appeal to that authority in my book.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No one was dismissing your argument

You were dismissing other people’s arguments when this all began. My whole point on mentioning the experts was just that there is a train of thought out there that is very upside oriented so that you would just acknowledge that we aren’t crazy for thinking the way we do about the list in general or on specific players.

And there are plenty of arguments to be made for Desme being ahead of Ynoa and vice versa. Again, no one is making ridiculous claims so I don’t know why a difference of opinion should be so offensive to you or PT.

by DrDoom on Oct 8, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

1. It’s not a “logical fallacy.” No one is making syllogisms….
2. It’s not even “improper” in this context. The opinions of “experts” are relevant evidence. Indeed the very fact that certain people are “expert” is relevant evidence.
3. If I said “No GM would take Desme over Green” and that was in fact true, it would be an excellent argument (as long as you didn’t take it as an exercise in deduction which would be ridiculous) that Green is a better prospect than Desme, and it is plainly an “appeal to authority.”

Really, you just think it’s a bad argument (and I agree), but when people start going on about logical fallacies (we are not doing any deduction!) it gets my dander up.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 8, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

MAC Attack beat me to this. Appealing to authority is certainly not a logical fallacy. Like all things, it can be done smartly or it can be done stupidly. Or it might be done differently by different individual according to their subjective judgments.

I agree that our goal is not to try to mirror anyone else’s list. But it is our goal for each voter to give his personal judgment. And if one voter’s judgment happens to be, “I think that [name of favorite analyst] is the best judge of prospect talent out there, so I’m going to base my votes entirely on his list,” there’s nothing wrong with that.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 8, 2009 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

There is still a huge bonus in having actually scouted these players live, which most experts have and most people on this board haven’t, you should take their opinion into account. Of course it is not gospel otherwise we might as well just wait for BA’s top 30 and copy and paste that, but their opinions do hold weight and the argument that most experts would rank player x above player y is still a valid consideration.

by DeJay on Oct 9, 2009 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hitting a baseball is probably one of the hardest things to do in all of sports

Missing 6 months is alot, almost 2 years is insane!

One of the reasons I am giving Desme the benefit of the doubt is that very few baseball players would be able to miss 2 years of hitting in games and not strikeout a ton when they first got back on the field.

I don’t have the time to look up how other players have hit after 1+ of not hitting but I would assume its not good at any age in any league.

by asfaninpismobeach on Oct 7, 2009 9:47 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Hitting a baseball for a basehit

Not just “hitting a baseball”.
I’d say kicking a football fifty yards through the uprights, over a crossbar, is MUCH harder than “hitting a baseball”.

"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw

by One won lost won on Oct 8, 2009 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah except that is the equivilent of hitting a grand slam

kinking a football through the uprights for XPT or short FG isn’t that hard.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I did that in high school

WordUpThome: "TRENIDAD HUBBARD WENT TO HIS CUPBOARD TO FEED HIS POOR DOGS AND PETS...WHEN HE GOT THERE, THE CUPBOARD WAS BARE, AND THEY TRADED HIS DOG TO THE METS"

by Player To Be Named Later on Oct 8, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually

i would say “hitting a baseball hard/well” not “for a base hit”…but i get the gist of your argument.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Oct 9, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do people really think that Desme's upside is way higher than Green, Weeks or Brown?

As Waddel says, defensive ability doesn’t really peak, it just gets worse with age, and scouting reports I’ve seen suggest Desme’s more a pretty good COF than a CF. So even though his upside with the bat may be a higher than the others (though not much higher than Brown’s), he’s probably going to have a lot less defensive value than Weeks and Brown and A LOT less defensive value than Green (that is, if they all hit their ceilings). So I think even if you’re an upside voter, I think you can make a good case for Green, Brown or (of course) Ynoa at 5 over Desme

by Elston Gunn on Oct 7, 2009 11:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Eh, I'm having trouble finding those scouting reports I'm remembering, so maybe they don't exist.

But I am pretty sure that Desme is more an average runner than a speedster despite the excellent stolen base numbers, which may leave him in COF.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 7, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those three (defiitely Green and Weeks) have more upside

I don’t he has a lot less defensive value than Brown. Their totalzones (sss for Desme) are about equal, Brown is faster, but the SBs suggest maybe Desme has a good first step. I’d guess maybe a 4-5 run advantage for Brown.

One thing in favor of Desme’s upside is that he is maybe more likely to cut down the Ks than someone who Ks a lot year after year, but that’s pretty tenuous.

I actually like Desme as a pretty good bet to be an excellent platoon player. He had a big platoon split this year, and there’s less of an issue of being unable to hit breaking balls against lhps.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 7, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Less upside than Weeks and Green, but more than Brown

Weeks and Green were top picks so I have no issue with anyone ranking them ahead of Desme despite the lack of statistics to back it up. I doubt either will have Desme’s power, but the defensive position moves them ahead.

Despite that, I put Desme ahead of Green because Green is still… green. I think Weeks should be ahead of Desme though.

And this idea that Desme’s defense is declining at age 23 is crazy. He will improve for a few more years and from what I have read, he has been moved around a lot which has slowed his defensive development. But he is athletic enough to stick at a lot of different places. Corner OF should be no problem for him.

by DrDoom on Oct 7, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Corey Brown was drafted higher than Desme

He has, by all accounts, better tools than Desme. (In fact, the only reason he fell to the A’s to begin with was makeup questions, which have largely disappeared since he hasn’t gotten into trouble at all with the A’s.) Eg he was rated the best athlete in the system by BA in 2007, and probably would have received the honor again in 2008 but for Rashun Dixon (not coincidentally, both of them are ex-two sport athletes).

He plays a more valuable position than Desme.

Where are you getting this higher upside from?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 7, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whose accounts have Brown with better tools?

I would have thought they were about the same.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 7, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is related to the point about lack of experience

Lack of preparation time in the offseason is also relevant in that respect.

However, it’s not really relevant to physical skills, unless the injury is so severe that it actually causes the player to be immobilized for a long period of time. That’s not the case here— nothing’s stopped Desme from generically “staying in shape”. (If he had broken his tibia like Carlos Triunfel, there might be a stronger argument here.)

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 7, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

aaand, SBN randomly moves a post heading again

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 7, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know why I continue to argue with you

Maybe because it bothers you. But…

Brown did not post the numbers Desme did. Desme was only drafted in the 2nd round because of the wrist injury, which he has now recovered from.

Whichever plays better in the AFL will be ahead of the other from that point forward. So lets see how that plays out.

by DrDoom on Oct 7, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No one will have spent significant time in AA

Donaldson and Doolittle both were in the AFL last year does that mean they are at the same level?

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Both are ahead in development

Doesn’t mean I think they are better prospects. If the stats were the same, then the guy in AA or AAA would obviously be ahead and by quite a bit.

Because of Doolittle’s injury in 2008 and his performance up until then he has dropped back a bit.

Donaldson has been covered to death.

Desme could completely fail from here on out, but the outside chance at significant upside is enough to get most fans excited and get him voted in at #5… which is what will happen.

by DrDoom on Oct 7, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I am aware that Brown did not post the numbers Desme did

He was too busy playing at an age-appropriate level in a park which doesn’t give a huge boost to home run totals.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 7, 2009 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Desme doesn't play CF?

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Oct 7, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

BA thinks he projects as a RF based on his tools.

They quote his college coach, Jerry Weinstein as saying he fits in RF. It’s subscriber content.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 7, 2009 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting. You'd think with his speed he'd be able to man CF.

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Oct 7, 2009 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Apparently his speed is more Ryan Sweeney than Jose Reyes.

He just has a really good knack for basestealing.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 7, 2009 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Snarked

Was about to say exactly the same thing.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 7, 2009 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not saying that Desme's D is declining,

just that usually by the time you’re 23, you don’t usually get much if any better at d, while you still have a lot of time to get better as a hitter.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 7, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Usually that's true

Last year was Desme’s first year playing full time OF. He seemed to do ok. Scouting reports seem to think he has the tools to improve. He said he improved a lot.

This is another case of his age and his development being out of whack compared with the typical prospect.

Long story short, he can still improve, and likely will.

by DrDoom on Oct 7, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh he said he improved?

glad youre taking his word for it.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

Are you calling Grant Desme a liar? : )

by DrDoom on Oct 7, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Paging High Inquisitor grover, grover to the Desme thread please

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 7, 2009 12:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Bring forth the comfy chair!

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Our chief weapon is..

surprise…surprise and fear…fear and surprise…. Our two weapons are fear and surprise…and ruthless efficiency…. Our three weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency…and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope…. Our four…no… Amongst our weapons…. Amongst our weaponry…are such elements as fear, surprise….

by eastbayexpat on Oct 7, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cake or death?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNjcuZ-LiSY

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 7, 2009 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh I love the church of england

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2009 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because we are members of the Protestant Reformed Church,

which successfully challenged the autocratic power of the Papacy in the mid sixteenth century, we can wear little rubber devices to prevent issue!

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 7, 2009 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Time to step up

In 2009 the Midland RockHounds team OPS was 48 points higher than the next closest team. They had 113 hits, including 58 more doubles than any other team. Part of that, Hell, maybe all of that was because of the awesome line-up Midland featured for most of the season. But the overall numbers are so out of whack with the rest of the Texas League that a red flag should have popped up and you should have asked yourself if maybe Midland played as more of a bandbox this year than it had in the past.

Do you know why you got almost no change in Donaldson’s numbers when you hit the button to neutralize park effect? Because I’m almost certain that that calculator is still using the 2008 (or 2007 3 year average) park effect multipliers. No one, to my knowledge, has completed the 2009 minor league park multipliers. And if Midland is indeed boosting offensive production this year, especially in doubles, beyond what it’s done in the past then we need to adjust the performance base line for all the A’s prospects who spent the bulk of the year in AA.

This is why you always account for park and league effects when you make a projection on a player. Always. This is why you always answer the questions that could affect the outcome. And when you can’t find the answers you temper your expectations.

Sermon’s over. Time for me to step away from the pulpit.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 7, 2009 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

I think a lot of this is wrong and don't want to get this thread too far off but..

There are very few reasons that a park would play significantly differently with regards to park effects. Either A the players changed or B there was a very significant change in the weather.

I don’t care about A. The park effect is likely to change because Midland had perhaps the highest concentration of awesome hitting prospects and crappy pitching of any team in the minor leagues, which more than explains the bandbox nature of the park. Using 2009 park effects are likely to distort Donaldson’s performance much more than they would help illuminate his true talent level.

I care about how the park affects in regards to B but I have seen no evidence that the shitty part of Texas (aka the non Austin section) experienced a significant weather fluctuation compared to years past. I care for example that the Cal League consistently increases offensive production, regardless of the crapyness of the pitchers, but I dont for fluctuations that don’t give the prospect im looking at an advantage or disadvantage in their own personal performance.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do we not have numbers for

the entire Midlands roster in all away games?

or for all opposing teams when playing at Midland?

Seems like either one would answer the question about whether the park played as more of a bandbox this year.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 8, 2009 1:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The question should be did anything change that would impact the way the park played besides the players

because Midlands pitching was bad and their hitting was amazing, which would skew the park effect.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right, and the test for that is to see if

visiting teams also had bad pitching and good hitting while in Midland, right? Are those numbers available?

Alternatively, can we check each RockHound hitter’s home and away splits? Were they all significantly better at home?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 8, 2009 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just go to some games

It was obvious to every Rockhounds fan this year that the hitting was awesome and the starting pitching was below average. It wasn’t any park effects. Those guys were pounding the ball. Early in the season before several guys were promoted or injured, this was a very special team.

by redtopcowboy on Oct 8, 2009 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But almost all hitters hit better at home if in a nuetral park enviroment than on the road

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And we know by how much.

So measure this year’s differential against the expected differential.

All I’m getting at is that someone posed it as a mystery whether the park is different this year or if it’s just that this year’s hitters are better and pitchers are worse. I’m saying that’s not such a hard thing to test for. The controlled experiment was done; all you have to do is find the data and look at it.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 8, 2009 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If its not so hard you should do it

Im suggesting that it is unlikely that the true nature of the park changed this year other than the players who will inflate the park factors towards hitting because the A’s have no quality pitching prospects in AA.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since one should be using multi-year park factors anyway,

it’s really unlikely that any climatic differences would seriously affect anyone’s hitting numbers.

They’d have to do something like move the fences in by 10 feet for it to have that big of an impact.

Bottom line, the reason why Midland hit better than every other team in the Texas League is that unlike every other team in the Texas League (and probably unlike every other team in minor league baseball) virtually the entire Midland lineup was players who will ultimately play in the big leagues. Tommy Everidge was probably the worst player in that lineup and he’s already gotten some MLB time.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2009 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah the fluctations in park factors has always confused me abit.

Are their any valid reasons why it would change from season to season? If these fluctations are mainly influenced by the players who played for the home team and the league in general, then this seems like a major flaw. I suppose the same could be true with OPS+/ERA+.

by DeJay on Oct 9, 2009 1:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Season to season, it's usually just random variation around a mean

Over a period of decades, there can be climatic shifts in an area, which will impact run scoring.

There are of course a couple of really obvious things teams can do (like move the fences in) to change park factors, but those are rare and usually pretty well publicized.

“The players who play for the home team” shouldn’t be a problem though. Normally park factors are constructed by comparing how players play in that park to how the same players play in other parks and then averaging it out to get a number or numbers that represent the “park effect.”

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 9, 2009 2:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

I’ve been thinking the same thing. Even if its not park factor and its a talent thing, being dropped in a lineup next to Chris Carter will boost anyone’s stats (ie Donaldson’s RBI total).

I think both Stockton and Midland were conducive to offense this year. AA is a large step to be sure, but the idea that A+ numbers are meaningless is silly.

by DrDoom on Oct 8, 2009 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They're not meaningless

But it’s all relative. Ceteris Paribus, I am much more likely to believe a .750 OPS in AAA rather than a 1.000 OPS in A+.

by eastbayexpat on Oct 8, 2009 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone that uses minor league RBIs as a legitimate stat has no idea what they are talking about.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you even read his post?

His point is that hitting right behind Chris Carter as opposed to hitting right behind Josh Horton, Ceteris Paribus (thanks, eastbayexpat), will likely give a hitter a greater RBI total. That says nothing about Donaldson at all, and that’s the point of the post.

WordUpThome: "TRENIDAD HUBBARD WENT TO HIS CUPBOARD TO FEED HIS POOR DOGS AND PETS...WHEN HE GOT THERE, THE CUPBOARD WAS BARE, AND THEY TRADED HIS DOG TO THE METS"

by Player To Be Named Later on Oct 8, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Protection doesn't exist and RBIs are silly at the MiLB level.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

TWSS

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 8, 2009 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And then you get the clap

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Protection definitely does exist for RBIs

The reason why people say protection “doesn’t exist” is that RBIs are meaningless trivia. It doesn’t exist for any meaningful statistics.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2009 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, thats what I meant

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 2:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're a dick

Anyone that makes that response to that post has no idea what they are talking about.

Think before you post. I didn’t say RBIs mean anything. I said Donaldson got a lot because he hit behind Carter who was likely sitting on second base a lot.

Chill out.

by DrDoom on Oct 9, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You said hitting behind Carter would boost his stats

Outside of worthless stats like RBIs, that is not actually true. It does nothing to enhance the minority of stats we actually care about, that’s for sure.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 9, 2009 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And yet its RBIs I mentioned

So you agree with me. And you are still playing gotcha. I believe in protection to an extent if that’s what you want to call it. I think Bobby Crosby dropped in the Yankees lineup will post a higher OPS if only slightly. Its still a debated idea even if you have closed your mind to it.

Desme won #5 so despite your knowitallness, you didn’t convince anyone. But again, everyone but you is an idiot so I guess you expected that.

Listen, lets call it off. You and your twin stop replying to me and I’ll stop replying to you. We aren’t ever going to agree. At least I don’t pick apart every point you make… I’m waiting for you to correct my punctuation.

by DrDoom on Oct 9, 2009 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know,

for someone who keeps whining about tone in virtually every post he makes, you certainly seem to do a remarkable amount of sneering and condescending of your own. Only one of us is presuming to know what the other one’s attitudes and motives are— and it ain’t me.

If my replies to your comments were intended to convince you of how wrong you are, then you’re right— it would be pointless and I would just killfile you and move on. Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 10, 2009 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We have a difference of opinion

Lets be civil about it.

by DrDoom on Oct 10, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except protection doesn't exist so your entire premise is wrong

and the stats that are indicative of future success aren’t affected.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 9, 2009 9:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That, by the way, is a good example

of a phenomenon we were discussing last month, Paul.

DrDoom has now crossed the line from general pugnaciousness to a clear violation of CG #1.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 10, 2009 2:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I try to join the community after reading for years

Is this how welcoming you all are? I haven’t done anything but defend myself. I haven’t made any outrageous claims that aren’t supported by many others on the site. Just chill out… All of you.

I stand by most of my posts, but I can certainly see a few points that would not be accepted by everyone… no big deal.

Tell me you disagree. Tell me why. Don’t call me asinine, an idiot, ridiculous etc. unless you are asking for a fight. Asking for a fight on a fan site like this is just silly… we should all be on the same side.

Try to win me over… don’t create an enemy for no reason.

by DrDoom on Oct 10, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My only complaint is when you called someone a dick.

That was clearly a personal attack by the definition in the community guidelines.

I do agree that some of your opponents in this discussion have been overly aggressive in trying to shout down opinions which they feel are unsupported by evidence. I don’t care for that, but ultimately it’s not a violation of the rules.

I also agree that everyone could chill out a bit. Looks like this post is about to fall off the front page list anyway, so it’ll be gone soon and maybe we’ll do better in the next one.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 10, 2009 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

or maybe we can argue like this all the way through the off-season!

Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy

by Leopold Bloom on Oct 10, 2009 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yea sorry about that

I believe it, but I shouldn’t have posted it. To be fair, I think a few others violated guidelines as well, just with different choices of words.

When you have people going around attacking any post that isn’t a full statistical analysis or is of a different opinion than 2 users, you run the risk of diminishing the community. I really think this is a problem on this site. The vernacular for their type is “trolls” and they should be discouraged.

by DrDoom on Oct 11, 2009 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude you have been here for like five comments

and used half of them for ad hominen attacks and PT and I, who actually produce content for the site are troll?

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 12, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Prove me wrong...

by DrDoom on Oct 13, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

Donaldson hit for .144 ISOP at home, .145 on the road. 4 home runs at home, 5 on the road. He hit a lot more singles at home, but not doubles.

Josh Donaldson is Jeremy Brown, with even less defense. Ftr. Maybe Jeremy Brown was an awesome prospect but none of us realized it.

by AgitationStation on Oct 8, 2009 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Jeremy Brown OPSed .833 in his last season in AAA.

Pretty awesome for a catcher. Why did he retire again?

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Oct 8, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Personal/family reasons

Never elaborated on at all. Which is OK; it’s not really anyone else’s business.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2009 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, yeah

His approach is as bad as DFA’s was in the Donaldson thread but I can’t do this anymore.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 7, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm excited about Desme too,

but I’m just not gonna form any solid opinion till I see what he does at a higher level.

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Oct 7, 2009 12:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The only issue I have with his age

Is like what others have said; that he’ll be closer to decline if he gets to the majors than other players. I have no issue with his ARL because when you talk about an older player dominating a younger league it’s usually a guy who’s been around that league for a couple seasons. This guys missed a HUGE chunk of time and then came back and dominated, meaning he wasn’t gaining experience against these pitchers or anything. He was just as new to them as were his younger teammates.

I still like other prospects like Weeks and Donaldson over him but after them I think I’m gonna begin to push hard for Desme for the reasons I’ve listed above. Of course he could come out next season and prove all his doubters wrong and get struck out all the time and show no power but he could also come out like Carter and cut down on his K’s and absolutely dominate again.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Oct 7, 2009 12:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Most of our players are gone before they decline

Since we rarely keep guys beyond that first big contract, we tend to lose them between the ages of 27-30. Most of these guys had a couple awesome seasons with their new team before they declined due to age (Giambi, Tejada etc.)

If Desme makes it to Oakland by 2011, he will be 25 (Buck is almost 26 and some people still seem to think he will develop into something useful). We would then likely have him for his age 25-30 seasons. Otherwise known as the prime of his career.

I don’t think Desme’s age should be a factor at all provided he continues to move quickly through the system. Expect to see him in AAA by the end of 2010. He will probably be in camp next spring too… never know what could happen.

by DrDoom on Oct 7, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are two components to ARL

One is experience. The other is physical development due to age. Desme has the physical development without the experience. It thus makes sense to punish him less for ARL than one would a guy who spent two full seasons in Vancouver sucking, but it does not make sense to eliminate ARL entirely.

The correct approach is a middle ground.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 7, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

people should refer to this comment when the topic comes up

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 7, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can dig it

The middle ground is fine with me so I’ll ask: Is there anything wrong with Desme going on the list somewhere in the 5-7 range? Because I see no problem with that.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Oct 7, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have another question

Wouldn’t Desme’s injury history in a way balance out those physical advantages he may have over other players?

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Oct 7, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

Injury history is absolutely, unequivocally, no-doubt-about-it a bad thing for prospects. It seriously diminishes their expected value.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 7, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Should've been clearer

I’m not trying to make excuses for Desme because as an A’s fan I know that injuries are always bad. What I was trying to say that with his injuries he was probably spending more time rehabbing and trying to just get healthy enough to get back on the field, as opposed to a healthy guy who goes into an offseason with an idea of certain parts of his game that he needs to improve. Maybe I’m just talking out of my ass but I’m trying to create food for thought.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Oct 7, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is related to the point about lack of experience. Lack of preparation time in the offseason is also relevant in that respect.

However, it’s not really relevant to physical skills, unless the injury is so severe that it actually causes the player to be immobilized for a long period of time. That’s not the case here— nothing’s stopped Desme from generically “staying in shape”. (If he had broken his tibia like Carlos Triunfel, there might be a stronger argument here.)

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 7, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A seperated shoulder could weaken that shoulder long term

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2009 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not only does it diminish their "expected value" it seems to also diminish their

upside. Buck’s best 75% PECOTA projection was worse than Sweeney’s in 2009 after not having been so in the past. Their 50% projections were almost the same.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 7, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Arizona Fall League

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=t_ros&cid=454

Weeks, Brown, and Desme are all on the roster. I bet Desme comes out of this league (if healthy) as the best of the 3, statistically speaking. This should push Desme to #4 Best Prospect on the AN Poll.

by Colorado Fan on Oct 7, 2009 3:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Does anyone know who Hiroshi Katayama

he is on the desert dog’s roster but with no listed team he has never played a game in the US

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My guess is that Japanese League players are allowed this year

in the Arizona Fall League because the Hawaiian League was cancelled.

by redtopcowboy on Oct 7, 2009 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

From wiki japan and the Rakuten site:

Katayama Hiroshi:

22 year-old southpaw from the Rakuten Eagles
6’3.5", 220 lbs
Low 90s fastball, often works in the 80s
Throws a slider and a slow curve

In 18 appearances for Rakuten in 2008, he went 2-7 with a 3.65 ERA. Apparently, he also came out of the pen, since he only threw 79 innings, striking out 70. He gave up 70 hits, 35 walks, and 4 homers. Apparently, he played well in exhibition games in 2009, but hurt a tendon in his throwing hand and didn’t make the team.

m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!

by JediLeroy on Oct 8, 2009 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the info I since I clearly cant read that.

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 8, 2009 9:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was a fun little exercise for me.

I don’t know baseball vocabulary in Japanese, so I got to look a lot of stuff up.

m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!

by JediLeroy on Oct 8, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Weeks will be best of the three statistically

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 7, 2009 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which was maybe a reason why the AN poll should have waited until after AFL

As it wasn’t it won’t be pushing Desme anywhere.

by DeJay on Oct 8, 2009 1:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zonis

Has talked about doing this list twice during the offseason. 175 more Off Days to make another list happen. Should be interesting to see what kind of grade Sickels gives Desme (I’m guessing B). Baseball America might put Desme in their Top4 or Top5.

by Colorado Fan on Oct 8, 2009 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another list

before the start of spring training or during it, would be nice. These are fun so I see no reason to not have it be a perpetual thing, updating whenever we have new data.

by DrDoom on Oct 8, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would expect Desme's Ks, age and injury history will keep Sickels from rating him above B-. He is notoriously hard with his grades

As for BA, I can’t see them ranking Desme above Carter, Wallace, Cardenas, Green, and maybe Ynoa, Weeks and even Stassi.

by DeJay on Oct 9, 2009 12:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another blurb on Desme from ESPN

http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=greyminorachievements090826

Its insider content but its a list of good players going to the AFL (from a fantasy perspective). Weeks mentioned there too. No mention of Brown.

Basically says Desme will try to prove he should be fast tracked to the majors. Also says he could be a potential fantasy sleeper… I am guessing in 2011.

by DrDoom on Oct 7, 2009 4:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

My question about Desme right now is:

Will his career path be more Chris Young or Jayson Werth?

Statistically speaking, Werth and Desme aren’t mindblowingly similar (but their TBC “scouting reports” are—that means something, right? Right?). But keep in minds that Werth was groomed as a catcher in the minors and only blossomed into a fantastic RF in the majors. They’re both big, athletic players with good power, good defense and great base stealing abilities. If Desme learns to control the strikeouts and walk little more, he’s got tools to become Werth easily.

If he can’t, however, his career path will be more like Chris Young’s. He was good, but ultimately the league caught up with his poor contact/patience and now he’s a meh player with flashy tools. If you can’t walk, and you can’t make contact, you likely won’t have a long, flourishing career in the major leagues.

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Oct 7, 2009 10:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The balance of historical evidence would suggest somewhere below Chris Young

Which is harsh but the minors are littered with guys who couldn’t hit a breaking ball to save their lives.

I hope Desme becomes Jayson Werth. I really do. But it seems much more likely that he (and even my favorite, Corey Brown), will be consigned to the dustbin of baseball history.

by eastbayexpat on Oct 8, 2009 5:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs