2010 Community Prospect List - #3
by Zonis on Oct 4, 2009 1:09 AM PDT
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PrintThe Minor League season has ended, and Winter Leagues are still a ways away. So what do we have left to do but tally up our Minor League experiences and take a look at the state of the A's Minor League System.
If you want to view Last Year's list, check here.
The qualifications to be voted onto the list are simple. The player in question must be eligible to win a Rookie of the Year Award for the 2010 season-that is, he must be a rookie to start the 2010 season. Well, not quite. To make it simpler and not have to count days on the active roster, we will be going with 130 AB or 50 Innings Pitched.
Lots of players have graduated from last years list, such as Cahill, Anderson, Mazzaro and Outman to name a few. Several others have upped their prospect value while others have fallen. Its our job to figure out where they stand.
The list will probably go on to 50 again like last time, though it really depends on how far AN wants to take it.
So argue out which player you believe deserves the spot for the list. Bring out the stats, the scouting reports, and the pictures (I'm looking at you flashfire!).
If you think you know a prospect well enough, write a scouting report with your supporting stats and I will put it into the thread for the next vote, either for the player's Bio after he wins, or for his bio for voting.
If you think a player deserves mention, or should be put on the next prospect vote list, or prospects that should be kept track of, put them in the comments (and preferably mark them clearly) and they will get consideration. I expect the top of the list, as with last year, to go rather smoothly for the first few players, but it gets more difficult as it goes on, and its up to you to bring prospects to light so that we can all see them. Just ask Anthony Capra, last year's #46 (and this years much higher) how important that is.
Votes will last a few days per round, or until a clear winner has emerged by landslide.
Age is entering the 2009 Season.
First Vote Prospects
Adrian Cardenas, IF, Age 21
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B SAC (oak) AAA 51 .251 .317 .372 1 24 3 23 15 MID (oak) AA 79 .326 .392 .446 3 55 5 56 26
Jemile Weeks, 2B, Age 22
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B MID (oak) AA 30 .238 .303 .343 2 13 4 10 5 STO (oak) A+ 50 .299 .385 .468 7 31 5 29 9
Grant Green, SS, Age 21
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B USC College 54 .374 .441 .569 4 32 16 46 19 STO (oak) A+ 4 .316 .350 .368 0 3 1 2 1
Grant Desme, OF, Age 23
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B STO (oak) A+ 62 .304 .398 .656 20 51 16 49 12 KAN (oak) A 69 .274 .334 .490 11 38 24 49 19
Michael Ynoa, SP, Age 17
Did not play, 60 Day Disabled List.
A's Community Prospect List
1. Chris Carter, 1B, Age 22 - 76%
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B SAC (oak) AAA 13 .259 .293 .519 4 14 0 7 2 MID (oak) AA 125 .337 .435 .576 24 101 13 108 41
2. Brett Wallace, 3B, Age 22 - 79%
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B SAC (oak) AAA 106 .297 .354 .460 15 47 1 54 21 Mem (stl) AAA 62 .293 .346 .423 6 19 0 22 11 SPR (stl) AA 32 .281 .403 .437 5 16 0 22 5
Poll Options will expand to 8 after Round 5.
151 comments
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Comments
I might still rate Brown ahead of Desme.
Brown’s defense sounds like more of a sure thing, and while one could argue Desme’s A/A+ year was better based on OPS and strikeouts, Brown was a year younger for his A ball campaign. Of course Desme has hit for better avg and has blazing speed. I think his ceiling is probably higher than Brown’s, but I tend to give a lot of weight to the likelihood of having some kind of big league career in considering these rankings, and Brown is closer to achieving this. They’ll be facing the same pitching in Winterball, so for me that will be the deciding factor.
And on the subject of 23 yo outfielders I’d rank ahead of Desme, is Cunningham ineligible for this list? He has 133 MLB ABs, meaning if he had just walked three more times…
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
...or gotten hit in the head 3 more times
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Cunningham
I asked about him in the last thread, and I was told he’s over the PA limit so doesn’t count as a prospect for our purposes here.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
The rules stipulate a limit based on ABs, not PAs.
Cunningham has 9 BB and 2 HBP, totalling 144 PA. I don’t know if the ROY guidelines use PAs or ABs, but if it is the latter, I would be in favor of abandoning those rules. Considering the nature of the conversation we are using a necessarily small sample, so why not use the more precise metric? Cunningham, at 23, is definitely in the formative stages of being an MLBer, and received very sporadic opportunities this year. Even more than changing the rules, I would say perhaps he should be the exception to the rule: I wouldn’t disqualify him over three almost-hits any more than I would argue that a .151/.211/.245 line represents his current talent level (which is about .690 if MLE is an indicator).
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
Well, all I know is that
in the last thread PT says Cunningham doesn’t qualify. And in the #1 thread someone else said the same thing.
Final call is for Zonis. He makes the rules. I assume that if Zonis intended Cunningham to qualify he would have mentioned him by now. But a clarification from Z would be welcome.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Yeah, I'm not meaning to criticize Zonis.
I appreciate his hard work, and to be fair, rules are rules. Basically I feel that Cunningham is young enough and the numbers are borderline enough that it at least warrants conversation. It seems ironic that Desme could essentially be awarded a top 5 spot for being injured for two years and being 20 days older than Cunningham. But I’ve said my piece and if Cunningham is ultimately ineligible it certainly isn’t going to negate the validity of the entire list for me.
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
Playing-time cutoffs are arbitrary, yes
That’s just a fact of life. Can’t be helped. The alternative is a situation where no one knows who’s “OK” to talk about/vote for.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
He's over 130 at-bats
That’s the cutoff. He might be over the service-time cutoff, too.
He’s not eligible.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I know he's not, I was arguing he should be.
If he had performed at his MLE levels over a ridiculously small sample he would be eligible because he would have walked three more times.
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
I definitely would rate him ahead of Desme
I don’t trust any statistics compiled by a 23-year-old in Low-A, and I don’t really trust hitting statistics compiled in the California League, either.
The kicker to me is that Brown appears to be improving his contact skills, see the lower strikeout rate this season, while Desme has not done so.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
SSS is an issue
But Desme did manage to improve his K-rate the longer he stayed at each level. Basically striking out a bunch when he started and slowly wittling it down, so I think there is some improvement. As far as Brown’s improved contact rate, I am excited that he made improvement, but after a major step forward he was only 1% better on his K rate than what Desme managed at Stockton. All Desme has to do is not get worse at making contact to match what Brown did ths season.
I picked Ynoa. The four year age difference is a lot.
So is the massive difference in scouting reports. Of course there’s the health problem.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
Massive difference in scouting reports
“We’ve seen a lot of big guys, but that dude is REALLY big.”
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Question: Shouldn't DLS be on the list of possible top 5s?
More than Desme, I’d think. If he makes a good recovery from TJ surgery, he could fast-track through A-AA to start 2011 at AAA and join Oakland by mid-season 2011 as a 26 year old with ace-stuff. Sure he’ll never be young for his leagues again, but that’s due to surgery, not due to stalling performance.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Not much data yet, I think
He made a couple appearances in rookie ball, IIRC, and pitched fine.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I think Desme is criminaly over rated but
I’d still take a position player who is actually on the field over a pitching prospect with an arm injury everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. The improvement in Tommy John surgery’s success rate as lead to this false belief that its not a big deal or that recovery is assumed, which considering that the road to recovery is littered with failed pitchers with oodles of talent that never were the same after going under the knife. DLS got shut down after taking the mound and threw 11 innings this year total (iirc)., which is a huge concern. For pitchers ARL is much much less of a concern than hitters.
I’m voting for donaldson next round poll options be damned
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2009 10:37 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I guess my point is that while I wouldn't vote any of them in my top 5,
I’d vote DLS over Desme and Ynoa, because unlike Desme I think DLS shows/showed more likelihood of being good and unlike Ynoa he’s actually done something before having arm problems.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Care to make the case for Donaldson here?
If persuasive, he might make the poll.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 4, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I assume Donaldson should be on the list for #4
I don’t think he’ll win, and I don’t intend to vote for him at #4, but he’ll get some votes, and if there’s room for eight candidates, I think he should be one of them.
He’s certainly somewhere in my top 10. If the idea is that the eight candidates on the list will approximate the next eight to be elected, he makes the cut on those grounds.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
If you think he can stick at catcher, obviously it changes a lot.
The vibe around here seems to be that most people don’t think he’s a quality major league catcher behind the plate. Offensively, he’s got a great plate approach and terrific getting-on-base skills. His power wasn’t eye-popping, but he was catching for a whole year in Midland, Texas, which is going to be a grind.
Also, Midland is supposed to be a HR suppressor, so he’s almost certainly got a bright future if he can stick behind the plate. If he can’t, however, he might be a 3B, but he hasn’t played a lot there, so that remains to be seen. If he’s a catcher, I’d probably put him in the Weeks/Ynoa range around 5-8. If not, probably in the Simmons/Desme [where he should be] 8-10 range.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
Even if he cant catch he can play 3b likely without losing any value.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2009 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I like Donaldson a lot too, DFA,
but I still think you’re too quick to assume that just because he was a good infielder in college he could just pick up a third basemen’s mitt and be league average.
I don't think that he will immediately
but he will revert eventually.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2009 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions
I know, I was exaggerating a little,
but I do think it’s a bigger assumption than you’re making it out to be that he’ll ever be average there.
I don't
SCOUTING REPORT: Donaldson is a first-rate defender at third base, but his profile plays better behind the plate and he began a successful conversion to catching a year ago, successfully completing the transition this year.
and I read but am having trouble finding that he had good range and played good D in the AFL though it was mostly at 1b but his throws shouldn’t be a problem since he catches.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2009 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions
fair enough,
i’m at least half-way to convinced. i certainly hope you’re right.
Also from his MLB draft profile
Fielding: Donaldson is new to full-time catching, but has good hands and caught fairly well. Some think he’s athletic enough to handle a Biggio-like move to second.
Some see a switch to the infield — he’s played third in college — but he may make for a good backup catcher who plays the game the right way.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2009 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions
If he can hold down 3rd well enough
he’d be a perfect addition to add value to Powell, having a “third” and/or “fourth” catcher with Barton.
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
Right im expecting him to be better than well enough if he ends up there.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2009 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions
unlikely that he would be average there...
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Why do you say that?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2009 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Average 3Bmen are excellent fielders many of whom have moved from SS
If Donaldson appeared to be that good, I don’t think he would have been immediately moved to C. The move also suggests that he may lack mobility. His body type is definitely more suited to C, and you rarely see someone with his body type at 3B, although maybe there is no good reason for that.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Donaldson was a SS in HS
you cant just dismiss 3b like you do.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2009 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Look at his draft reports from HS
people didn’t think he was horrifically bad at SS either.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2009 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions
How about little league or american legion?
I bet if we keep going farther back we can find something that says he’s an awesome centerfielder
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
I wasn't the one that wanted to know if he played SS
or set that as a requirement for being a good 3bman.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2009 1:11 AM PDT up reply actions
So did...
…like 2/3 of all high-schoolers who got drafted. Just about every kid who gets drafted that young is the best player on his team, which usually means he’s the shortstop. Or pitcher. Or both.
I am well aware of that
but to say that Donaldson can’t play league third because he was moved to catcher and not moved from SS (which he in fact was) is not accurate.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Also he played 15 games at 3b this year.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2009 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I have a feeling both Desme and Ynoa are going to end up being criminally overrated in this survey.
After Cardenas, I still have at least five guys I’d rank ahead of either of them: Weeks, Donaldson, FDLS, Brown, [Cunningham], perhaps Doolittle and Ross.
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
Green overrated in the same way?
I expect Weeks, Donaldson and Brown will be my next three in some order, but I’ll make my decisions as they come up, possibly swayed by further arguments in the comments.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Ross?
I’d certainly have Leon in front of him— better health/mechanics, better performance, and younger. Ross has had a few dominant games but there are others where he just totally lacks an outpitch.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Yeah, I forgot Leon - he deserves to go ahead of Ross.
Although including the post season Ross put up a 1.16 WHIP, a K/9 close to 8, and a GO/AO of almost 2:1. These numbers are all better than Leon’s, but of course Leon spent an entire year in AA at a younger age, and then there are Ross’ mechanics.
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
I put some weight in the starter/reliever dichotomy
Leon had a weird role for most of the season. Once he moved firmly into the rotation, he was substantially better (more Ks, fewer BBs).
He also has a better track record in prior seasons.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
True, but it's not like I have it in for Ross or something
I like his upside a lot; he just has a lot of holes in his game right now.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
The reason Desme and Ynoa are getting support near the top of the poll is that no one
other than Carter, Wallace, Cardenas and Weeks is considered a top prospect. Green and Stassi were mid-first round talents (Picks 7-25 or so). When looking at a bunch of guys with low ceilings (Donaldson, Leon, Ross) or significant uncertainty (Ynoa, Rodriguez, Desme), some people are going to choose the latter. I am one of those people.
You win with stars. Having 42 guys who are average to below average major leaguers don’t feed the bulldog. If a guy has any shot at being a 3+ WAR player I’d have to take him over someone supposedly a sure bet to make the majors. By the way, what happened to all the James Simmons fans?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 4, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
You've got to be kidding me
Leon and Donaldson have ten times the ceiling of Rodriguez.
What is it with you and that guy?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Most people think relief pitchers are worth more than the paper their contracts are printed on
I’m not most people. Relievers are junk— so much less useful than anything else.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
aren't you a big Huston Street defender?
I’m not trying to play gotcha, though I guess that’s basically what this comment is.
Also, there is certainly a big difference between Street and most relievers. And… there are plenty of other reasons (or at least one big patrol craft shaped reason) to dislike the Holliday trade.
Huston Street's about as good as an average MLB starting position player
While I in no way believe that that should be given away for free, I also in no way believe that most relief prospects will ever be as good as Street.
I was exaggerating wildly when I said that those guys had 10 times the upside, but 3 times (4.5 WAR vs 1.5 WAR) isn’t ridiculous at all.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Unless your are talking about Rodriguez's ceilling selling protective gear
because watch out! he has no idea where it is going.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Where did you ever get the idea that Donaldson or Leon have low ceilings?
If Donaldson can stick at catcher, he’s probably better than Suzuki (definite 3+ WAR potential), and Leon just put up a 2.25 K/BB ratio in Double A at 20, after holding his own in the pretty good Mexican League for three years. I haven’t seen a lot of scouting reports on him, but that sounds like at #3 starter ceiling to me.
Donaldson is not that good of a hitter
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
I mean, he's not a superstar hitter,
but league average isn’t out of range with his OBP skills, and he doesn’t have to hit that well to be a 3 WAR catcher if he has even reasonable D. I’d bet that he’ll turn into a better hitter than Landon Powell, and everyone is salivating over the idea of getting Powell some ABs at DH.
Why do you say that?
He posts excellent OBAs and walks all the time. He shows the ability to hit 15+hrs.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2009 8:31 PM PDT up reply actions
He'd be a good hitter for a catcher
but there are doubts about his defense there. His bat does not look good enough for 3B. His numbers are just not that good and is he is not young. The BBs are great, but also confusing since he didn’t walk much last year. Players who wind up being above average hitters have generally done a lot better than he has at his age the past couple years.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Yeah it's far too early to make any serious conclusions about what Donaldson can do offensively and especially defensively.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
My problem with Donaldson, which jives somewhat with this,
is that he has never been the same hitter two minor league stops in a row. I literally have no idea what to expect from him offensively, or defensively for that matter. I don’t have a good feel for what he’s doing when he steps up to the plate.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I also don't see the upside in Donaldson
His best case scenario seems to be average major leaguer. He has never hit for a ton of power or consistantly hit for average. He is older. He has no speed. At best he would be average on defense at either C or 3B. I really don’t think his offense will play at 3B though. If you look at the 5 tools he is barely above average on any of them except for maybe arm strength if he plays anywhere but C.
He is a solid prospect and may make the roster by 2011 in a reserve role, but he doesn’t have the upside of Weeks, Desme, Green, Ynoa, and a few others. I would rank Donaldson around 8-10 and no higher.
Those who are recommending these lists
might want to consider unrecommending the old ones. The logic is the same as with DLDs.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 4, 2009 4:37 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Rec'd :p
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
By the way, if anyone ever wants
to get at past articles in the series which have fallen off the front page, an easy way to reach them is to click on Zonis’s name for his user page, and then click on the blog tab to get all his recent fanposts.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 4, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
A lot of people underestimate Tyson Ross, evidently.
I still think he was an outright steal. He’s a natural athlete and pitched well in a hitter’s league this season.
Only time will tell, though. Personally I’d like a chance to vote him into the top 10.
FWIW, I thought he was an excellent pick at his draft spot
I like spending those 2nd-4th round picks mostly on college pitchers with good performance track records.
If I had to break down my ideal draft I’d describe it as follows:
1: Best player available, slight inclination toward college bats
2-4: Mostly arms with good performance #s
5-10: Mostly “signability” guys: toolsy players who are less polished
11-20: Organizational players to fill out minor league rosters
21-30: Long-shot “signability” players
31-50: More organizational filler and hate-drafts
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I liked the Ross signing.
I get good vibes about Stassi too.
Time will tell.
"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard
by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 4, 2009 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I didn't mind Stassi since it was over-slot and the worst-case scenario is that they're out a few bucks
but I’m usually not a fan of high school catchers at all. He’s a fringy top-30 guy for me until he proves otherwise. I actually might rank Ian Krol in front of him. Have to think on that when the time comes, I guess.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Studies show that high school catchers are the worst bet for positional players
so hes down the list for me but hes definitely higher than top 30 since scouting reports I have seen suggest he could play 2b or 3b if catching doesn’t work out and thats what happens to most high school catchers is they move off the position and can’t hit enough for 1b and have no other defensive position.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2009 1:10 AM PDT up reply actions
A little late perhaps, but....
Fearless prediction: Brett Wallace will provide more value over the length of his A’s career than Chris Carter.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
I don't care who does better
I just want both to do well.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Who are you predicting
we’ll use him to trade for to establish that value?
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
fearless prediction: Adrian Cardenas will provide more value over the length of his A’s career than Brett Wallace.
I endorse this statement.
Signed,
DFA
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 4, 2009 8:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Fearless prediction part two:
Adrian Cardenas will provide more value over the length of his A’s career than Brett Wallace or Chris Carter.
Although I am less confident of this one than the first one.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
where does fautino dios de la santana rank?
If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.
Francisco dios mio de la Santiago is recovering from Tommy John surgery.
He’s such a wildcard that he’ll be bumped quite a bit lower.
Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.
I am proud of this community. Very rational first three picks so far
I think it starts to get interesting after pick #3. I think we’ll see some far more interesting votes.
For the record, I’m amazed at how much this community has warmed to Grant Desme. As much as people knock Rajai Davis for one fluky season, many of the same folks are clinging pretty tightly to 62 games of high-A ball from Grant Desme.
This is a guy who struck out 81 times in only 259 at-bats at low-A earlier this year. He doesn’t make enough contact. He wiffs way too much for a 23-year-old in A ball. We’re looking at basically 50 walks in 500 plate appearances this year. A 3-to-1 K to walk ratio. And that’s for a player with good power who was probably being pitched very carefully the second half of the year (which should slightly inflate walk totals – it’s not like he was getting a steady diet of Jason Kendall cock-high fastballs once pitchers knew he could hit bombs).
The power is nice, but if it comes with a very bad strikeout-to-walk ratio, especially at that level, it’s a problem. Because it’s a problem that usually gets exacerbated at higher levels.
I strongly do not believe that this guy is the 4th-most promising player in our system. I actually think that it’s a bit of an insult to the upside of at least three other guys in our system if he gets rated that high.
I also don’t think he’s athletic enough to play center field in the major leagues. Very good baseball instincts, yes – notice the nice CS rates – but not athletic enough. I don’t like the way he runs. He is a flat-footed, heel-to-toe runner. This is a biased opinion, but I generally associate a center fielder with a smooth, mechanically sound running stride. This is a guy who’s running form looks more like that of a moderately athletic left fielder or first baseman, which is part of why I’m surprised the SB totals were high. Then again, he was taking advantage of low-A catchers (24-for-24 in low-A ; but only slightly above the break-even point at high-A: 16 for 21).
But he’s not Rajai Davis and he’s not Ryan Sweeney, defensively, in my opinion. If you have a very trustworthy scouting report on his D in center, go with that instead, obviously.
I say this as someone who should be very biased toward him as a SLO grad who was there part of the time he was, and I root for all SLO grads.
I would love to see the guy succeed. But some people are using his previous injuries as an excuse to overlook our small sample size of success and the fact that he was “not young” (although not old) for A ball this year.
I don’t like that he only had one very strong college season, I don’t like his strikeout-to-walk ratio, I don’t like his injury history, I don’t like his unfriendly, “skater tough” picture on milb.com, and I don’t like his heel-to-toe running, even if it may be nothing more than aesthetics.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
One fluky season...
Is more than anyone else left on the list. Hence the Desme love. Weeks, Green, Ynoa, Donaldson, etc. haven’t put up the numbers at all yet. Donaldson is close but they are still pretty weak for AA… needs more power. With everyone else its based on projections with no results to back it up. I’d say thats almost the case with Cardenas too.
For the record, I will probably go Weeks at 4 and Desme 5. Green and Ynoa haven’t shown enough yet and are too far off. Brown is running out of time. Donaldson isn’t very exciting. Leon might make me rethink things… need to study him more.
I rank differently than most, I think
Well, kind of.
Like just about anyone, at the top of my list would be guys who are likely to become league-average players or better. Hence, Carter/Wallace/Cardenas as no-brainers for me. The surplus value they will generate during their cost-controlled years is an incredible asset to the team.
Then I shift dramatically.
I would follow those three with just straight upside picks, but only amongst guys who have developed almost no statline whatsoever. In other words, Green/Weeks/Ynoa, in no particular order. They’ve really done nothing to make you pessimistic yet, and there upside is that of the aforementioned three – league-average or better player.
To me, that trio is far more intoxicating than the lower floor/lower ceiling combo of Josh Donaldson. Look at it this way – the A’s can’t buy league-average or better players. They can always buy Mike Lambs. If Josh Donaldson projects as a Mike Lamb (just hypothetical), then I’d much rather have the lottery ticket that is Inoa, or the league-average upside of Green. The A’s can’t buy front-of-the-rotation starters or league-average shortstops (typically). They can always buy Mike Lambs.
Thus my prospect rankings always would go 1. likely league-average players, 2. lottery tickets with no negative statlines yet, 3. low-ceiling, above replacement dudes like Donalddson, 4. lottery tickets with bad statlines.
I think that a lot of people would intuitively interchange #2 and #3 above, and would rank Donaldson above Inoa. Obviously it also depends upon what you think Donaldson will become.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 5, 2009 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Donaldson should read, "higher floor/lower ceiling," obvy
also, their vs. there vs. they’re
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 5, 2009 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I tend to agree
I just toss Desme in with the 3 guys you have at 4-6. He is older, but in development terms he hasn’t been around that long. No one else in baseball had a season like the one he did (30/30/40). And he improved when he was promoted. With him going to the AFL, I think there is a good chance he starts next year in AAA or at least ends up there before too long. The A’s want to move him quickly. I see his arrival as 2011… same as Donaldson, but with more upside and similar downside. Green is 2012 and Ynoa is 20?? so I knock them down a peg since they have further to go.
Brown is "running out of time" and Desme is at #5?
I would really like to hear an explanation of how you’re rationalizing that combination of opinions.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Desme was frozen in carbonate
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on Oct 5, 2009 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm glad he made it all the way back.
That is a dangerous procedure.
Damn it Joba... I mean Jabba
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2009 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Winter league isn't the same thing.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2009 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions
You're relying on an age difference of 4 months?
That’s beyond ridiculous.
I bet Brown would have posted a 1000 OPS and 20 steals if he had repeated the California League this season, too.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Possibly
But then they would be equal. And Brown didn’t do that so… yea.
Its not ridiculous. Its possible. Can we not go overboard with these opinions? Its just a friendly debate. I don’t think Brown ever has or ever will post a line like Desme did. Desme has never posted a line worse than what he did this year (see what I did there?).
Lets see what happens with both in the AFL. It could go either way, but more eyes will be on Desme I think.
If Desme hits like Brown did this year in AA that would be a big step forward for Desme
Brown is Desme further along the path of success a path that is far from guaranteed for Desme.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think it's the same people hating on Davis and loving on Desme.
There are only about 5-10 of us that consistently talk about Davis’ season as a fluke, and, off the top of my head, nearly all of us have Desme in more the 8-15 range.
Yeah
He’s behind at least the following:
Ynoa
Leon
Weeks
Green
Donaldson
Brown
Doolittle
and that’s just off the top of my head, so he can’t possibly be higher than 11th.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Why do the A's have him in the AFL then?
Seriously… why are the A’s so high on him? I really can’t wait for the 2010 prospect lists. Desme won’t be super high, but he will be higher than half those names at least. And again I think we all know this… and yet we don’t want to believe it.
Capra would probably go there for me as well
Even if you are an upside whore then you should be rating Ynoa ahead of Desme anyway.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2009 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I think it's tough to judge after 3
I think putting Desme at #4 would not be crazy, and putting him at #13-14 would not be crazy. Everyone after #3 has some serious flaws that are all different from one another.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Yeah, I agree with this.
I haven’t thought it through much yet, but i don’t think he’ll be higher than 8 for me—Leon, Ynoa, Donaldson, Weeks and Green are definitely ahead of him, and probably Doolittle and Brown too. Still, I don’t think #4 is crazy, I just disagree. Well, actually maybe it is a little crazy—if you want upside go Ynoa—but not really crazy.
I'll probably go with most or all of the guys in the first group ahead of him
but probably not Brown or Doolittle. Doolittle has the same problems as Desme (high K%, only half a good year) and less defensive value. Plus, a knee injury that took out most of his season is more worrisome than Desme’s wrist stuff.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
I kind of go back and forth on Doolittle, but I don't have to decide on him for a while.
I think Brown’s going to have significantly more defensive value than Desme which keeps them close for me.
The thing about Doolittle is that he's been promoted so aggressively
that despite being a college draftee, he’s actually been extremely young for every level he’s played at (other than a handful of games his first season at Vancouver).
His K rate is higher than I’d like but it’s nowhere near the abomination that Desme’s is. I’m not sure he has less defensive value, either— he’s showed well in right field in prior years (I’ll give him a pass for this year because we don’t know when the knee injury started affecting his play) and is reputedly a great first baseman, although TotalZone doesn’t agree so far.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
It is near the abomination that Desme's is...
Desme was 26.8% last year. Doolittle is at 22.5% for his minor league career and 24.3% over the last two years.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
4% difference is, all else being equal,
the equivalent of about .012 in batting average. Doubling that to reflect the impact on both OBP and SLG, it’s worth about 5 runs a season.
That’s a significant differential.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Why do you say that about the defensive value?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Brown appears to be a pretty competent center fielder, and the accounts I've read don't really see Desme being able to handle it at the MLB level
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
are you using TZ for that assesment?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
No, just a gut sense of various scouting reports
Nothing scientific.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
good to know
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, it's the same for me.
He plays a significant amount of COF, and scouting reports on him seem ambivalent about whether he’s a CF.
What about Desme's shoulder injury?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Puting him at 4 is nuts.
Ill say it. If youre an upside whore you have to vote for Ynoa over Desme. If you are an expected value whore you have to value like 8 people more.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2009 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions
eh
you could be an upside whore for position players and less so for pitchers since pitchers fail at a much higher rate. And there are plenty reasons to dislike each of the other position players. It’s not obvious that his expected value is lower than the rest of them.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
The dude K's like its got the cure
30% Ks while being old for your level and taking advantage of the Cal league and having a long injury history all make his expected value lower.
King a ton in the minors is very bad, unless you are a pitcher.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2009 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, it's 26.8% (kind of a substantial difference), which is terrible and a big problem and the reason I would not put him at #4
but he improved each month, and this was his first year of pro ball so it would be reasonable to have expected the first month struggles that he had. Doolittle was at 25.4% last year and some people seem to like him a lot more for some reason, and the K% is rarely even mentioned. Corey Brown was at 29.7% last year, and his much ballyhooed improvement this year was down to 24.6%… Carter was at 26% last year and he was at #3 on the list last year with much much worse defense than Desme…
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
According to fangraphs
its 31.3 in Low A and 29.5 in high A.
Chris Carter was almost two years younger than Desme without a significant history of injury, got screwed on his BA, had a better walk rate, had just come off of a season with a more acceptable k rate and hit more.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions
that's per AB
my point is just that his K% is similar to these guys who don’t get dismissed out of hand for it.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
My bad.
The K rate is just one of Desme’s warts if was the only one that would be much less of a problem
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Carter's 2008
Is very similar to Desme’s 2009
Similar K rate. Carter walked more but hit for a lower average. OPS’s almost the same with similar breakdown between OBP and SLG. Desme had a lot more speed and presumably slightly better defense.
I don’t expect Desme to make the leap Carter did but he doesn’t need to in order to remain valuable.
Desme is older and has been injured. If thats what you want to hold against him then by all means do so, but don’t try to convince me his stats were not good.
Desme is behind in terms of age but not development. If his path means he won’t be in the majors until he is 25 or 26 then so be it. He can still be a good player.
He has only played 1 full year of pro ball… Lets give him a chance before we write him off.
Carter was unlucky on BA luck and Park neutraling it he would ahve hit .287
which while isn’t being precise I definitely remember being a big reason I thought he would make the step forward in AA.
I don’t get your age/development distinction.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Desme is older
But its not like he has 3 years toiling away in the minors and is pulling a Jack Cust, Nelson Cruz or Jesus Guzman on us.
We keep knocking Desme for his age when he is still early on in his development despite his age. Give him time. Don’t just ignore him because he is 23 and in high A.
I am not saying Desme is Carter. With less pro ball under his belt he did post a very comparable season… there is no denying that.
I just want people to acknowledge that Desme had a very special season. He was voted Stockton’s player of the year. He deserves some level of recognition.
Yes, and the name of that recognition is
“Stockton’s player of the year”, not “4th best prospect in the Oakland system”.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
This
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions
These kinds of comparisons are invalid because they ignore scouting and ARL
Carter has, depending on who you asked, somewhere between “plus-plus” and “legendary” power. Desme does not— it’s fine, but not amazing. And Carter was two years younger.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Hence Carter is the superior prospect
I agree. He was last year and still is now. But, Desme did post better numbers than pretty much anyone else in his league. That has to count for something. I don’t discount it because of his age. I do discount it because of his injury history.
I’m curious, what would you need to see from Desme in either the AFL or AA to convince you he is legit? Lets assume he will always strike out a lot. If he goes 20/20 between AA and AAA with an average around .275 but with high strikeouts will he still not be a top prospect? Is the K rate all that matters? I’d like to know what you think.
Basically
No one in MLB posts a career BABIP above .340 or so, and it’s vanishingly rare to see one above .320.
So if you’re striking out in 30% of your at-bats, you need league-leader type power to hit for a high average. The only way he’s going to convince me that he’s “for real” before hitting the majors is to cut down on strikeouts. Otherwise I’m going to be expecting him to replicate the failures (to date) of Michael Saunders and Wladimir Balentien.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
But you were a Balentien sucker IIRC
what happened?
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I was mugged by reality
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Ouch
You know in my first 22 years in the world I was never mugged but I have experienced 2 attempted muggings on Muni in the last 4 months.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 7, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions
and the idea that you "have" to value 8 (!) guys more from an e.v. perspective is completely ridiculous.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
the use of the term like there is meant to illustrate exageration.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 5, 2009 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions
I just don't understand the hatred
30 hrs, 40 steals. OPS over 1.000.
He strikes out a lot. But this was also his first full season in the pros. The strikeouts are basically all he has to improve on. The rest of those guys have numerous things to improve on.
Maybe his K rates mean he won’t make it. Its certainly possible. But maybe his avg., hr, BB, and SB rates mean he does make it.
I think we are getting way too attached to a few metrics while ignoring the obvious stats staring right at us.
You can’t see Desme’s numbers and not be a little excited by the possiblities.
There are only a handful of minor league stats that are worth anything
Looking at a player’s full statline is a fool’s exercise. All one should care about are the ones that serve as proxies for skills: K rate, walk rate, IsoP, speed score, maybe TotalZone (jury’s still out on that one for me).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Isn't Desme good in all those areas except K rate?
Can we compare Donaldson in Stockton and Desme in Stockton based on those stats? I’d be curious to see.
Also, can we keep it civil
Calling a player nuts or a whore because they think an OPS of 1.000 at Stockton in a player’s first full year is impressive, is a bit harsh.
At least a few professionals will have Desme at or near the top 5. Are they also nuts and whores?
I don’t know why we can’t just discuss these things without making ridiculous absolute statements or belittling other’s arguments. No one has posted anything that is utterly untrue or all that misleading. All the points are valid and any of us could end up beign right.
The nuts thing I won't retract
but the whore part isn’t intended to be disrespectful. KG calls himself an upside and velocity whore and I used it equally on both sides of the argument. Im a whore for plenty of thing when it comes to prospects.
I apologize that it came across as disrespectful, as that was far from my goal.
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Fair enough
I responded to your post but it was more a general thought. I’ve seen idiot bandied about too. In general I think this is being taken too seriously. I like the debate but want to make sure it stays an intellectual process.
My user history shows i haven't called anyone an idiot for over a week
Im improving!
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 6, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Word hasn't been used on this thread, other than these two posts
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I am aware of this
You have been pretty aggressive in your defense of Donaldson however. Not sure why it means so much to you. I’d like to have a nice calm debate over these guys but that seems hard to do.
I remain open to the idea that Donaldson is awesome. I’d like you to remain open to the idea that Desme is awesome. I don’t think I have posted anything thats all that out of line and yet you get very worked up. I’m enjoying these threads, but I don’t want to be brow-beaten into a group-think mentality.
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