Cole Day In Hell -- Phillies 8-5 Loss Shows Why Manuel Is Crazy Not To...

by Nico on Oct 31, 2009 9:58 PM PDT Comment 45 comments

...start Cliff Lee in Game 4. Charlie Manuel has announced that Joe Blanton will pitch Game 4, rather than have Lee pitch on 3-days rest for the first time in his career, and then be set to pitch in Game 7. Game 7 is not going to be a problem the way Manuel is playing it.

Down 2-1 in the series, Manuel has two options that don't require Pedro Martinez to pitch on short rest -- which at this stage of his career makes sense not to do. He can go, as he is apparently going to, with:

Lee
P. Martinez
Hamels
Blanton
Lee
P. Martinez
Hamels

and pitch Lee only twice while trying to get to a Game 7 to throw a pitcher who entered tonight's game with a 6.75 post-season ERA and promptly gave up 5 ER in 4.1 IP. After going all of 10-11, 4.32 ERA during the regular season.

Or Manuel could go with:

Lee
P. Martinez
Hamels
Lee
Blanton
P. Martinez
Lee

You see, pitching Blanton is not the problem -- pitch him in Game 5. It's "not pitching Lee three times" that's the problem. In any game where the Yankees and Phillies take the field and Cliff Lee is not pitching, the Yankees are going to be the better team. The only chance the Phillies have in the World Series is to put the better team out there 3 times out of 7 and then try to steal one more.

The way the Phillies are playing it, they will now have to win 3 of 4 the rest of the way, and 2 of those wins will have to come in games Lee doesn't start. Good luck.

Charlie Manuel, had the Phillies won tonight maybe you could gamble because you already had one non-Lee win in the bag. You don't have that. You are now 0-2 when Lee doesn't start and it's not surprising. You have about 20 hours to come to your senses and give your team a chance to win the World Series. Because Lee on short rest may or may not get you there -- but pitching Lee only twice won't, plain and simple.

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(sigh)

by OaklandSi on Oct 31, 2009 10:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

So, that A-rod "HR"

That… um, that camera was in the field of play, was it not?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 31, 2009 10:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The commentators contended that IF the camera had not been in place - that ball would have cleared the fence.

"The trouble with baseball is that it is not played the year round." Gaylord Perry

by BERRYJO on Oct 31, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They're right; it would have

But the camera should not protrude into the plane of the playing field. The umps got it right, just as Manuel is, IMO, getting it wrong.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 31, 2009 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Was that you with your dog off-leash at the Berkeley Marina??!!

right next to the habitat restoration??

Great walking weather..

"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw

by One won lost won on Nov 1, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Me? But that would be technically illegal.

So obviously not.

Yes, it was nice down at the Marina.

So, er, someone told me.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 1, 2009 3:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

and IF the fielders don't get in the way, every ball is a base hit.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 31, 2009 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait -- if a ball falls in the outfield,

but no Ryan Sweeney bothers to run it out to see, does it make a hit?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 31, 2009 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

only on days that end with the letter Y

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 31, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Umpires agreed

"The trouble with baseball is that it is not played the year round." Gaylord Perry

by BERRYJO on Oct 31, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

regarding the camera in the field of play,

I think the ground rules are supposed to be discussed with both managers prior to the game-when they exchange line ups. And if the camera was in the field of play (which it looked like it was) the discussion theoretically should have covered how a play would be called if a ball hit the camera. So they may have decided as a ground rule that this was a home run. Or, more likely, they didn’t think of it and the umpires just winged it. Maybe we’ll hear in post game analysis.

by alamedaman on Oct 31, 2009 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm assuming they looked at what would have happened had the camera not been there

And the answer is, the ball would have cleared the wall.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 31, 2009 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, it turns out it was part of the ground rules determined pre-game

by the umpires. And they did decide that it would be a home run if it hit the camera. Evidently that is why their decision was so fast, after seeing the video. From the Sunday New York Times:

Gerry Davis, the crew chief, explained how the umpires tour the field and review the ground rules before the first game of a series at a ballpark. Since the umpires do not control how the camera operator moves the camera, Davis said any ball that hits the camera is a homer.
Jeff Nelson, the right-field umpire, had ruled that Rodriguez’s ball was not a homer and said he thought it hit "the top of the fence." After Girardi said the Yankees thought the ball hit a fan, the umpires decided to watch the replays. Once the umpires saw the ball strike the camera, Rodriguez soon had a two-run homer.

by alamedaman on Nov 1, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Charlie Manuel said in the postgame interview

that no one told him before the game that the umpires had decided that if a ball hit the camera it would be a home run.

by OaklandSi on Nov 1, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Did Manuel object to the call in the interview?

I missed the interview. Years ago I was told that the discussion at the plate prior to the game included a discussion of ground rules. I imagined this was somewhat perfunctory most times. I note that the NYT discussion of Gerry Davis’ comments made no mention of that pre game discussion, and in fact seems to imply the umpires take it on themselves:

explained how the umpires tour the field and review the ground rules before the first game of a series at a ballpark

I wonder what the actual rule is?

by alamedaman on Nov 1, 2009 6:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They looked at it pre-game

and made the decision then that if it hits the camera it’s a home run. But what they should have done is ask that the camera be moved off the field of play instead.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Nov 1, 2009 12:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right. Thanks.

by alamedaman on Nov 1, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This is wrong

rather than have Lee pitch on 3-days rest for the first time in his career, and then be set to pitch (on normal rest) in Game 7

The World Series does not have the stupid gratuitous-inserted-open-date that the LCSes now do. Game 7, if it happens, is Thursday. A pitcher pitching Game 4 has to go on three days’ rest in Game 7. (Assuming no rainouts in New York, of course. It is a possibility, I suppose.)

I agree that pitching Lee twice more would be the obvious move in the LCS format. In this format, where he’d be doubling up the short-rest cycle in game 7? Not clear.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 1, 2009 1:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

if they lose tomorrow with Blanton pitching against CC

It’s not clear they’ll get to a game 6, let alone a game 7. Either way, I think I still take my chances with Lee on double short rest.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Nov 1, 2009 1:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh, unless you think that short rest has no impact at all (or a positive impact) on player performance,

pitching Lee in game 5 makes it MORE likely they’ll get to a game 6… and, presuming that Pedro is the starter of game 6 either way, also more likely they’ll get to a game 7.

I realize that “reaching game 7” is not the objective here (obviously, “winning the series” is). However, I would point out that it’s quite possible that going with Lee on 4 days and then 2 days rest might well be a better move than going 3/3.

by PaulThomas on Nov 1, 2009 9:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think it has no impact on player performance

But Lee has been SO good this postseason that I can’t see how a drop off would suddenly turn him into Clayton Mortensen. I understand that a game 5 is guaranteed in either case, but if Blanton loses tonight and Lee pitches and wins Tuesday, they are still down 3-2 with Sabathia all but guaranteed for a 7th game against a guy that blew it last night.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Nov 1, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Basically, pitching Lee on short rest = could be as great as always, could not be

Pitching Blanton and Hamels = we know what that is.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 1, 2009 11:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

OK

Still doesn’t answer the “why not 4 and 2” criticism.

Again, I’m not saying that pitching him on double short rest is wrong. I just don’t think there’s any possible way to tell. It’s pure guesswork— not even educated guesswork, because there’s no data on which to base an opinion.

by PaulThomas on Nov 1, 2009 1:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The trouble with 4 and 2 is that

on 3-days rest, you can throw a bullpen session on the 2nd day and pitch on the 4th. I suppose on 2-days rest you can rest for a couple, skip throwing in between starts, and then pitch, but that is so much less common (3-days rest used to be the norm) that I’m assuming that pitching a couple times on 3-days rest is just not THAT big a deal (right, CC?) whereas I don’t know about pitching on 2-days rest and whether the arm is really ready to pitch in a game at that point.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 1, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're right, PT -- I was parroting what I had heard

on a broadcast (which is my bad as I should have counted the days, as well as their bad for giving misinformation).

My response, though, is that you pitch Lee on 3-days rest today and see how he does. If he pitches fine and feels fine, you know it makes perfect sense to do it again Game 7. Worst case scenario, you decide “Bad idea,” pitch Blanton and Pedro in Games 5 & 6, and target Hamels for Game 7 — which is how it stands now anyway.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 1, 2009 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's also the "Never save a pitcher for tomorrow; tomorrow it may rain"

Leo Durocher principle. If Blanton pitches today because they don’t want to go twice on short rest with Lee, and then there’s a rainout Monday, or Wednesday, it’s too late to get 3 starts out of Lee when it turns out you could have had him on normal rest for Game 7 after all.

It’s also just weird to me that the Phillies seem to think it’s fine for Lee to throw 120 pitches all the time, but unthinkable to pitch him on 3-days rest once or twice.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 1, 2009 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Durocher?

I agree with your point since the season is almost over, but as a kid who rooted intensely for the ‘69 Cubs, I’d never follow Durocher’s line. He overused his Big 3 — Jenkins, Holtzman and Hands — all season and they were ineffective in September, leading to the collapse that produced the Mets miracle.

by vk on Nov 1, 2009 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I actually don't know the exact context of his comment,

but it seems to me that it applies more to, say, closers (or relievers in general) than to starters.

For example, you’ve used Bailey for 1.1 IP yesterday and you decide to try to avoid him in a 6-3 game today, because maybe you can get by and if he pitches the 9th inning today he won’t be available tomorrow. That kind of thing.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 1, 2009 9:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Unless you're Scoscia.

Then you put him in every game where it’s possible to aquire a save.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Nov 1, 2009 9:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Because tomorrow he may reign.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 1, 2009 9:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It has to be a rainout IN NY

A rainout in Philadelphia will just eat up the Tuesday travel day.

by PaulThomas on Nov 1, 2009 10:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

On Paper

Blanton is going to get torched.

I guess they should play the game and find out. I don’t give Philly much of a chance at all.

Dumb move by Manual IMO.

by Trainman on Nov 1, 2009 11:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

The plus side is that if somehow the Phillies can steal this game,

they still have Lee, in a more favorable matchup, for Game 5.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 1, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This is my hope for a series that continues through to the end...

… Clearly, the Phillies staff is outmatched. Yeah, a few balls could have fallen slightly differently (that Utley DP in the 8th, Game 1, I almost died), to good effect. I wish. But they didn’t, and now it is clear that the Phils are going to have to steal something. If they do steal tonight, they’re in good shape heading to Game 6. If they lose tonight, they can still try to head to NY and steal 2 (praying helps?). If they pitch Lee tonight, what if he gets in a 1-0 duel with Sabathia, say, and the Phils lose both the game and their ace? Yes, that’s a huge “what if,” but it’s a scenario that is end-of-series certain.

by paris7 on Nov 1, 2009 12:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think if they lose tonight, it's pretty much over

To need to win 3 straight, the last two at NYY, with Lee going only once in those three games? I don’t see it.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 1, 2009 3:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

lucky the games aren't played on paper

by OaklandSi on Nov 1, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And Blanton can be very good

the trick is, if he gives you four great innings, take it. DO NOT send him out for the fifth. How many times did the A’s do this, and have it blow up in the fifth, trying to get Blanton a “W”.
Get
the
Win,
forget who gets to be the “WP”.

"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw

by One won lost won on Nov 1, 2009 2:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If Blanton pitches 4 strong, no way am I going to the bullpen to start the 5th

Happ isn’t even available. I stick with Blanton until he needs to come out.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 1, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

me too

by OaklandSi on Nov 1, 2009 3:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Er, I send him out there until he's done.

If that’s only 4, then so be it, but I’m not pulling him early for no reason.

No, there's no light,
in the darkest of your furthest reaches.

by danmerqury on Nov 1, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

wait, there was a game last night?

Sorry, I was distracted by college football…. ;)

There's no crying in baseball!

by gigglingone on Nov 1, 2009 12:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Wait, there was college football yesterday?

Sorry, I was distracted by my utter indifference to the sport.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Nov 1, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs