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The AL West and its Postseason Disappearing Act

OK. They are a "crapshoot", in BB's immortal words. I get it. Extremely small sample size, though it is growing for one Nicolas Thompson Swisher. But at some point the numbers start to matter.

Example A-- it mattered that between 1980 and 1997 the AFC won a grand total of 1 Super Bowl. Whether it was the 49ers dynasty, the Bears great season, the Redskins or Giants dominance, or "How bout them Cowboys!!", the simple fact is that one conference was clearly superior to the other, just as from 1969-80 the NFC had only two Cowboy victories to brag about.

Example B-- it matters that in the last 40 years the Big 10 (including just those Penn State years in the conference) has only one and a half national championships in football, mythical though they still may be: Ohio State's disputed victory over Miami and Michigan's split-verdict title with Nebraska in Tom Osborne's last season. That conference was supposed to epitomize the sport, and yet they have been badly outstripped by competition to their west and south.

So I do think we should note that since Robby Alomar went deep on Eck, ending a 5 year run of World Series appearances for the AL West, the A's division, in either the original or newly constituted form, has had a grand total of 1 WS participant, the Angels in 2002. They have never been back despite making the playoffs in 2004, 05 and the last three seasons. The A's, of course, never got there in any of their 5 appearances between 2000-2006. Neither did the Rangers in their brief run atop the division in 1996, 98,99. Nor the Mariners in their multi-year playoff run between 1995 and 2001. For 17 years now this division has bombed out in the postseason in one fashion or another. A team with Johnson, Griffey and Edgar Martinez never got to the World Series? Or with ARod? Or Ichiro? The wonderfully strong "fundamental" team in Anaheim hasn't been back since 2002? Not to mention the A's famous first-round disasters.

The overall postseason series record since 1992 for the 4 current AL West teams is 9-18. That's a .333 success rate. 6-18 not counting the 2002 Halos. The division hasn't produced a Wild Card team since the WS champion Angels in 2002.

Now of course you are muttering "but what about the Yankees and the Red Sox?" Of course. They both got smart or smarter to go along with their wealth. But somehow the Rays made it to a World Series. Somehow the White Sox made it to a World Series. And the Indians got there twice in the 1990s and came closer in 2007 than any AL West has done in the past 7 years.

And will it change anytime soon? We won't know probably until 2011 at the earliest whether the next iteration of playoff Oakland baseball (assuming there is a next iteration, that is) is better than the last. We won't know if Texas will shed 10 years of mediocrity and climb the mountain into the postseason with their young talent and what might happen if they get there. Or if LAAAAAAA can keep their roll rolling, only playing better in October. Come to think of it, since Tampa still has all that talent and the Yankees and Red Sox aren't getting dumber, it's doubtful that all three of these teams (and I'm not even considering the M's) even get to the postseason more than once in the next 5-7 years. The drought may last a while.



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There is no possible way you can make analogies between the baseball postseason and pro football

In pro football, the postseason is emphatically NOT a crapshoot. (That’s helped by the fact that succeeding in the regular season has tangible advantages, whereas in baseball any team that limps in to the postseason is basically as well situated as another.)

As for the rest, I won’t venture either an explanation or a critique.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 9:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This.

While I will also add that you also cannot make an analogy with college football since the friggin champion is VOTED on.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 29, 2009 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Indeed

It’s definitionally impossible under the BCS for any team that isn’t in the top 2 to become champion. Not exactly upset city.

Which is why I prefer college basketball… I actually LIKE crapshoots, as long as you acknowledge them as such and don’t pretend that they’re the only thing that matters in a season…

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I personally bet Dont Pass/Don't Come...

which may explain why everybody hates crapshoots when I’m around.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 29, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I personally bet Dont Pass/Don’t Come…

TWSS

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Won't completely disagree.

But in recent years, we’ve seen some teams with a clear disadvantage (extra game and/or no home contests) get hot and at least make it to the Super Bowl (Arizona last year) or win it (’05 Steelers, ’07 Giants).

Small sample, sure, but still.

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Oct 29, 2009 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well I was actually only discussing the one game

Which is played on a neutral field between the two conference champions. As opposed to the various vagaries of the pre-Super Bowl competition.

by eliot123 on Oct 29, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

One football game is more skill-testing than five baseball games

There are varying degrees to which any sport is subject to the effects of luck. Among the major ones, I’d rank them like this:

American football
Soccer
Basketball
Baseball
Ice Hockey

in terms of the likelihood of luck influencing any particular game.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think (NBA) basketball has very, very little luck involved.

Here’s my proof.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 29, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I generally don't wish bad things on people,

but there’s a special layer of hell just for Dick Bavetta.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 29, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

lmao...

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 31, 2009 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd put basketball first

And the dominance of home court is the best example. It shows that given all the touches, all the shots, all the outcomes, that outcomes are not very random. Home court creates a new “best team” matrix and is very determinative.

because soccer relies on so few scoring events, I’d knock it back a notch.

But the fact that, unlike football or soccer, baseball relies on 5 or 7 game series to determine a playoff outcome, does diminish the luck effect a considerable amount.

And the two individual sports least reliant on luck are boxing and tennis, for the simple fact that they involve constant “thrust and parry” events where the stronger or more accurate player eventually prevails.

by eliot123 on Oct 29, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's no doubt that a 7-game basketball series is less likely to be an upset than one football game

No doubt at all. I’m talking about one game. Sometimes Hampton beats Iowa State in one game. The big, inescapable bit of randomness in basketball is the percentage of shots that drop. It’s like BABIP in baseball— players have some control over it but it takes a while to normalize.

I’d say the least luck-dependent individual sports are probably races… I mean, Usain Bolt isn’t going to lose a 100M dash unless he’s on one leg or sick as a dog… Michael Phelps won every race he entered for like four years running…

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

True.. should have clarified

I meant either the ball sports or direct head-to-head contests like boxing, wrestling and the like. But Edwin Moses never got beat for about 10 years, luck or no luck.

by eliot123 on Oct 29, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Taking it a little further...

In 25 seasons from 1969-1993 (when the leagues were made up of two divisions each), the AL West made it to the Series 10 times (thanks to the A’s 1972-74, and A’s-Twins 1987-91). So tag that with this latest drought and it’s only 11 times in 40 years for the West.

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Oct 29, 2009 9:12 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This also ignores the fact that the AL realigned and the West shrank down to 4 teams.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 29, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or that arguably

the East gets to have two teams in the play offs while West & Central only get one. (arguably, though not necessarily literally).

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 29, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, but....

1) Anyone seriously believe the Big 10 is anywhere near the SEC, Big 12 or the Pac 10 in terms of talent anymore?? Whether the championship comes from a vote (which now it only kind of does, since at least two teams do get to play it out on the field) or not? After what has happened to Ohio State when they get to the BCS game? And to be honest I’m not sure in terms of talent on the field that Michigan 1997 team was equal to Nebraska;

2) 4 teams or 7, losing in the postseason this much and this consistently still matters. All the divisions have 4 or 5 teams now. Cleveland made the WS twice, Chicago once, Detroit once as well as all the Yankee-Red Sox-Blue Jay appearances. Well, mostly the Yankees (1996, 98, 99, 00, 01, 03 and 09), to be fair.

I mean for weather reasons only you’d think MLB would welcome the AL West getting in there a bit, wouldn’t they??

Here are the Post 1994 totals for the 6 divisions.

WS appearances:

AL West 1
AL Central 4
Al East 10
NL West 4
NL Central 3
NL East 8

by eliot123 on Oct 29, 2009 9:30 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It still comes from a vote.

I mean, 2/3 of the ranking is from the Harris Poll and the Coaches Poll, isn’t it?

Regardless, that’s not really the point — it’s not really settled on the field.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 29, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

True enough

But outside of one Penn State undefeated season I can’t remember a Big 10 team suffering from the voters and in fact Ohio State was advanced to the national title game twice when they really didn’t deserve it. And as I said, Michigan was both helped and hurt by voters in 1997. Otherwise it’s been a slew of Rose Bowl losses and a gradual slippage in terms of quality compared to the other three major conferences.

That Penn State season was instructive as to the basic corruption and incompetence of the polls. They were up 3 scores against a mediocre Indiana team on the road, late in the 4th quarter. A Penn State linebacker returned a pass for a TD which would have made it a 4 score game, but for a flag for a non-evident penalty. Indiana then scored with about 3 minutes left against PSU’s 2nd string defense. They then recovered an onside kick and scored again as the clock ran out making it a 7 point game. Penn State was knocked down in the polls the next week never to recover.

by eliot123 on Oct 29, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Big Ten

I don’t know about championships, but the Big Ten definitely has the best fight songs.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 29, 2009 2:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yep

2 of the best 3 in “Hail to the Victors” and “On Wisconsin”— “Cheer, Cheer for Old Notre Dame” being the 3rd, IMHO.

by eliot123 on Oct 29, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

"On Wisconsin" is awesome.

It’s the absolute classic football fight song. Even more than Notre Dame, I think. But my all-time favorite is definitely Ohio State’s “Fight the Team Across the Field”. I love that song! I could listen to it all day. Another one I really love is “Go U Northwestern”.

“Hail to the Victors” is great, but I don’t rank it as highly as you do. It would probably make my top ten, but not top three.

I just spent about two hours listening to fight songs on this site. Big Ten really is the best. There are some good songs outside the Midwest, but not nearly as many. I think second-best would probably be the SEC.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 30, 2009 2:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And this is decidedly not a very small sample size

Total Games W/L for the AL West since 1994— Postseason:

48-68 .414

Leaving the Angels title in 2002 out, it’s 37-63 or .370

Now of course there is a slight bias built in against losing teams since all of there series end in a loss and they don’t get a chance over a longer period of games to equalize the outcomes some. But this is still a pretty darn revealing number. The biggest culprits were, of course, the Rangers, who rolled over all 3 times they won the division. And the A’s playing all those .400 series (alas!)

by eliot123 on Oct 29, 2009 2:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

this is bunk

the ALwest sends at least one team to the playoffs every year

by Future Ed on Oct 29, 2009 10:23 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

I laughed.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 29, 2009 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not only that, but we do it with only four teams.

Those other divisions have five, so it’s even more of an accomplishment for us.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 30, 2009 2:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plus, sometimes we send two.

Crazy.

And your dream, absolve.
And your path, dissolve.

by danmerqury on Oct 30, 2009 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No other division in baseball

can use sending 50% of its teams to the post season as its claim to fame.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 30, 2009 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brett Tomko > Cliff Lee

IMO :)

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 31, 2009 8:51 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Shouldn't this:
A team with Johnson, Griffey and Edgar Martinez never got to the World Series? Or with ARod? Or Ichiro?

be evidence that the playoffs actually are a crapshoot?

by Elston Gunn on Nov 1, 2009 8:54 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

did you see the rest of Seattle's rotation? the bullpen?

Tim Belcher the best of the lot. (PS Tino martinez was on the 95 and earlier teams)

by Future Ed on Nov 2, 2009 9:54 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs


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