Community Prospect List #13
by Zonis on Oct 29, 2009 6:08 AM PDT
62 comments
Due to demand, I have removed much of the introductory text from the threads, as well as the stats for those whom have been voted onto the list already, in order to make it easier for people to scroll all the way down.
If you have any cases for prospects, keep them coming!
For Reference: Scout's Mid-Season Top 50.
Prospects up for Vote:
Dustin Coleman, SS, Age 22
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B STO (oak) A+ 26 .220 .304 .330 1 8 2 14 4 KAN (oak) A 93 .254 .345 .410 8 42 18 56 22
Pedro Figueroa, SP, Age 23
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP KAN (oak) A- 18 10-2 3.23 86.1 89 31 76 0 1.39 STO (oak) A+ 11 3-4 3.56 56.2 62 35 67 0 1.48
Fautino De Los Santos, SP, Age 23
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP AzA (oak) Rk 7 0-1 3.86 11.2 12 4 16 0 1.37
Anthony Capra, SP, Age 22
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP STO (oak) A+ 9 2-2 3.12 52 42 21 67 0 1.21 KAN (oak) A 18 4-7 3.24 100 70 40 103 0 1.10
Sam Demel, RP, Age - 23
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP MID (oak) AA 27 0-2 0.61 29.1 23 9 26 11 1.09 SAC (oak) AAA 28 2-3 3.62 32.1 27 21 33 3 1.48
Max Stassi, C, Age 18
2009 Stats G Bavg OBP SLG HR RBI SB R 2B VAN (oak) SS 13 .286 .340 .367 0 8 0 3 4
Brad Kilby, RP, Age 26 - Video
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP OAK MLB 11 1-0 0.53 17.0 10 4 10 0 0.82 SAC (oak) AAA 45 4-2 2.13 63.1 40 24 77 2 1.01
Henry Rodriguez, RP, Age 22 - Video
2009 Stats G W-L ERA IP H BB K SV WHIP SAC (oak) AAA 37 2-1 5.77 43.2 38 38 71 4 1.74 STO (oak) A+ 3 0-0 0.00 5 3 1 11 0 0.80
The List Thus Far
A's Community Prospect List
1. Chris Carter, 1B, Age 22 - 76% (of 5) - Video
2. Brett Wallace, 3B, Age 22 - 79% (of 5) - Offense Video / Defense Video
3. Adrian Cardenas, IF, Age 21 - 75% (of 5) - Video
4. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Age 22 - 36% (of 8) - Video
5. Grant Desme, OF, Age 23 - 29% (of 8) - Video - OmahaHi's case for Grant Desme
6. Grant Green, SS, Age 21 - 32% (of 7) - Video
7. Josh Donaldson, C, Age 23 - 31% (of 7) - Video - DesignatedForAssignment's case for Josh Donaldson
8. Corey Brown, CF, Age 23 - 37% (of 8) - Video
9. Michael Ynoa, SP, Age 17 - 40% (of 8) - Video
10. Sean Doolittle, 1B/OF, Age 22 - 41% (of 8) - Video
11. Arnold Leon, SP, Age 20 - 46% (of 8)
12. Tyson Ross, SP, Age 22 - 23% (of 8) / 42% (Runoff) - Cal Sports Profile Video
Upcomming Potential Prospects for Voting (no order): Mattl Sulentic, OF Anthony Recker, C Shane Peterson, OF Alex Valdez Travis Banwart, SP Matt Spencer, OF Gregorio Petit, SS Graham Godfrey, SP Robin Rosario, OF Tommy Everidge, 1B Clayton Mortensen, SP Ronny Morla, SP Wilfredo Solano Joel Galarraga, C Nino Leyja, 2B Paul Smyth Conner Crumbliss Pedro Figueroade, SP Rashun Dixon, CF Julio Ramos Daniel Straily James Simmons, SP Ian Krol, SP Yusuf Carter Ryan Ortiz, SP Brett Hunter, SP Anthony Huttenlocker Carlos Hernandez, SP Ben Hornbeck, SP Reynaldo Mateo Tyler Ladendorff Shawn Haviland, SP Mickey Storey, SP Chris Mederos Jon Meloan Josh Horton, SS Conner Hoehn Corey Wimberly, UTL Dan Thomas Josh Leyland, C Justin Souza Andrew Carignan, RP Jermaine Mitchell, CF Jared Lansford, RP Justin Marks Jason Christian, 3B
If you have a prospect you want to suggest, from this list or not on it, speak up in comments!
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Reply here with suggestions for prospects to be added to next poll
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on Oct 29, 2009 6:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
x2
The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby
by MMunoz33 on Oct 29, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't aware of prospect X2 before
Is this one of those robot prospects without enough fuel for a full game?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's time to see Dixon and Leyja on the list.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Oct 29, 2009 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
lolwut
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hornbeck
Then Dixon
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 29, 2009 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anvioris Ramirez?
Still not sure if this guy is on the 40-man, but if he is – the A’s must think highly of him.
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Oct 29, 2009 7:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he's listed on the 40-man anymore
I haven’t heard anything about it directly but it appears to have been a mistake.
by DiegoAsFan on Oct 29, 2009 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have a scout.com subscription
but one of the post titles that I saw on their page implied that it was a mistake…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This was a tough one
I decided to go with Capra because I’m still just a little too skittish about De Los Santos’ injury. The fact that he wasn’t able to really put it behind him at all this season even though the typical recovery time for TJS would have suggested he should have been pitching in June scares me a bit.
I’m not entirely sold on Capra and would like to see if his stuff holds up at higher levels, but I’ll take the chance on a lefty with at least 1 solid above average offering with the change up. Having a great change up suggests that Capra will be able to keep right handed hitters off balance and avoid massive platoon splits which often force lefty’s into bullpen or loogy roles. His fastball isn’t great but is perfectly adequate for a lefty and there have been rumblings that his curve can be above average as well.
I am a little concerned that Capra is a polished lefty who is good at changing speeds and is taking advantage of less experienced hitters in the low minors, and that his less than ideal walk rate might give him trouble going forward. But at this point on the list I think he is the best prospect.
by DiegoAsFan on Oct 29, 2009 9:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorely tempted to strategic voting though I was, I voted for Coleman
and he actually seems to have decent (albeit unspectacular) support so far, so I’m glad my hand didn’t “slip.”
Definitely time for Simmons to make an appearance, along with Hornbeck.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 9:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
I made my argument for Coleman in the last thread, I’ll be voting for him until he’s there.
Also, I just realized, if we’ve got these other relief prospects on there, we might as well put Jon Meloan on. He’s quite possibly the most likely to be a good reliever the soonest.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Oct 29, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Was it Hornbeck that I've seen you say added velocity this year?
Which might account for his really solid results this year? If I’m remembering that correctly I’d probably start pulling for him soon, maybe even after Coleman gets on.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Oct 29, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's definitely added velo since leaving K-State
I think it was something of a process— basically Romanick and Co. changed his motion around a bunch to make it more mechanically efficient, and he went from 81-82 to 88-89mph, obviously a huge deal. (And unlike in Brett Hunter’s case, the mechanical change didn’t cause him to suddenly be unable to throw strikes…)
He doesn’t have plus velocity, but it’s good enough to work off of now if he has the secondary stuff.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I prefer Capra's healthy left arm to DLS's creaky right arm
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Oct 29, 2009 9:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Capra then Coleman for me.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 29, 2009 9:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm on the FDLS bus untill it pulls in
Yes he’s injured (which is why he’s not an easy top-10 pick), but he’s also the highest ceiling.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 29, 2009 10:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think this arguement is irresponsible in terms of valuing his floor.
Dude is 23 hurt and has only pitched 10 games at High A ever, where he averaged less than 5 innings a start.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 29, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Irresponsible?
There isn’t a lot of exciting left, so I’m at the point where potentially exciting (and DLS – if he recovers – would certainly be exciting) is appealing.
I could easily see Coleman and Capra never making it, and they both have lower ceilings. You’re right that their floors are higher (but I’m not sure their floors are higher enough that it matters – i.e. their floors are also too-shitty-for-MLB).
Picking either way is hardly irresponsible though, and I think you know that.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 29, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Every single prospect's floor is too-shitty-for-MLB
Talk about an argument that proves too much…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So...
What does that tell you about things being “irresponsible in terms of valuing [a prospect’s] floor”?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 29, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That you have to define "floor" different than "ceiling," or perhaps use a different term?
I think the point DFA is trying to make is that you have to go up till like the 80th or 90th percentile outcomes for the two players before DLS overtakes Capra.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I disagree with that
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 29, 2009 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How?
There’s probably a 50-60% chance he never cracks the majors at all, when you factor in the risks of reinjury, inability to regain command, and inability to regain stuff together with standard TINSTAAPP concerns about ability translating to higher levels.
Some portion of the remaining percentage is that he can’t find a third pitch as a starter and gets moved to the bullpen, dramatically lowering his value.
Then you’ve got the chance that he’s only a fringy starter.
By contrast, I think there’s a 70%-ish chance Capra pitches in the majors, and a pretty healthy (40-50%) chance that he provides real value.
Maybe his 90th percentile is only a #2 rather than an ace. But so what? The overall value curve is significantly in his favor.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you for being me while I am at work.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 29, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how TINSTAAPP matters (they're both pitchers, and Capra's younger)
It’s not like Capra’s mowing down AAA hitters and on the doorstep or anything. I think that FDLS pre-injury is a dramatically better prospect than Capra which is why I’m not as concerned about the third-pitch argument.
Obviously, the injury happened and his recovery hasn’t been as good as it could be. I’m not a doctor, so I can’t handicap the odds that he recovers. If he does, though, he’s a better prospect than Capra. If he doesn’t, he isn’t.
The fact that his “doesn’t recover” value curve is lower than Capra’s “doesn’t translate to higher levels” concern doesn’t particularly matter to me since they neither of them help the A’s (and I don’t care about minor league teams’ win loss).
In other words, a 30% outcome for FDLS might be “physically unable to pitch, out of baseball” while for Capra its “institutional soldier” but I just don’t care about that difference in value. I don’t think there’s any dispute that FDLS’ 90% outcome is better than Capra’s. The question, then, is pretty much what FDLS’s odds of recovering are and I think they’re high enough.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 29, 2009 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Capra has had a lot of success a full level above FDLS pre injury
He actually had a higher k/9 in A+ than any k/9 that FDLS had at any level besides his rehab starts in rookie ball. What I am suggesting is that you vastly under rate the chances that someone whose TJ surgery is looking like a failure at this point comes back healthy with the same stuff. You also over rate the 90% outcome because at this point you really have no idea what FDLS’ ceiling is because he could have less stuff now and forever more despite being able to pitch, it happens all the time. Furthermore, hard throwing two pitch pitchers in A ball, which is what FDLS was before he got hurt often get over rated billed as having ace potential and never make it.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 29, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are completely and utterly ignoring DLS's "doesn't translate to higher levels" concern
which is essentially the same as Capra’s. Even if it’s fractionally less, combined with the injury risk it makes it hugely likely that he will never be relevant at the major league level.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree (of course)
I think you guys are both focusing on Capra’s plusses and DLS’ minuses. My opinion is really simple:
1. A healthy DLS is a better prospect than a healthy Capra
2. There is some chance DLS will never be healthy
If 2 is high enough, Capra is the better prospect. Otherwise, he isn’t. Not being a doctor who has examined DLS, I can’t tell you which it is. Given the uncertainty, I’m taking the higher ceiling.
Unless you disagree with 1 – and I’ve said it several times with no rebuttal – I don’t care how much better a prospect he is. Does DLS have weaknesses? Of course. Does Capra have weaknesses too? Of course.
You keep throwing irrelevant things into the mix, but unless you can honestly say you prefer a healthy Capra to a healthy DLS – and tell me why – or convince me that the odds DLS never recovers are high enough I’m sticking with him.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 30, 2009 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
#1 is NOT TRUE ANYMORE
Unless you define “healthy” as “every bit as good as he was before the injury,” in which case the odds of #2 are like 50%.
Many “healthy” post-TJS pitchers are not as good as they were before the injury. Your insistence on drawing a dichotomy between “healthy” and “not healthy” and putting every outcome into one of those two boxes is unrealistic and oversimplified.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is my definition, yes
Where does the 50% come from?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 30, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Experience...
I mean, it’s obviously a ballpark estimate, but… you’re the one that seems to be asserting that major arm surgery and continued pain is NOT a problem. Methinks the burden be on you here. The only stuff I’ve found from internet searching is that the surgical failure rate is about 10 percent, but actual surgical failures are only a minority of the instances in which TJS damages a player’s ability.
There are plenty of high-profile failures (Ankiel, Liriano, etc) and a zillion minor leaguers you’ve never heard of who just faded out of baseball after the surgery.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's no burden on me
I’m clearly not going to convince you to prefer DLS.
This is a particularly odd debate since neither of these guys are in Oakland next year, and we’ll know a LOT more about how DLS recovers a year from now.
From the looks of the voting, AN is going to have FDLS higher than Capra. It won’t be the only one. They won’t all look that way.
My guess is that next year’s lists will be near-unanimous about their relative placement.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 30, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is shockingly wrong in my book
Given the uncertainty, I’m taking the higher ceiling.
This is just backwards. If the two prospects have the similar certainty then yes you would default to this position. It is just flat out wrong to even consider that they have a similar certainty. Every arm injury to a pitcher has the potential to do two things:
1) decrease the certainty that they will contribute to a MLB club in the future due to an inability to pitch and
2) lower the ceiling of the prospect due to scar tissue, loss of control, or other effects such as changing mechanics to prevent future injury, even if that pitching prospect returns to the mound fully healthy
You are ignoring both of these. Capra’s healthy has low miles from college (missed time with an appendectomy) and has pitched better at a higher level. Capra has a second offspeed pitch that is above average where as DLS has a below average change up to go with two plus pitches dramatically increasing the likelihood that he gets moved to the bullpen which would just eviscerate his ceiling. Capra’s ceiling is #2/3 pitcher and DLS’ ceiling is a #1 which is like a 1 WAR difference over 6 years thats 9 WAR if they both hit. Except I would suggest that there is a 75% chance that he never throws a pitch as a starter in the MLB considering his command wasn’t so hot to start out with and TJs often sap command. 24 WAR * .25 = 6 WAR and 10 WAR times 50% odds that Capra doesn’t pitch in the majors then you have 15 WAR * .5 = 7.5 WAR. I think Capra is clearly superior.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 30, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're pulling a lot of numbers out of your ass
I don’t hate Capra (he or Coleman is next on my list). I just have DLS higher (as, it would seem, do a significant number of other people).
It will be interesting to see if DLS comes back looking good next year. If he does, he’ll move up in my rankings. If he doesn’t, he’ll drop a lot. Right now, this is where I have him.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 30, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The probability yes
but the WAR for #1 pitcher and #2/3 aren’t. Do you really think that TJ which recovery does not go well decreases your probability of pitching as a starter in the majors by less than 25%?
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 30, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe you need to show more of your work then
Things I don’t understand now:
If DLS’s ceiling is 1 WAR above Capra’s, why is 6 × 1 = 9?
What does the 10 WAR have to do with anything?
Where does the 24 and 15 WAR come from?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 30, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
I was confused by DFA’s math in that post as well.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 30, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was typing with his forehead, I think
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 30, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mark Ellis can do that.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 30, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry at work trying to do this quickly and clearly went to dumblefuckland instead
4 WAR is basically all star quality or a #1 starter x 6 years of team control = 24 WAR
2.5 WAR is a number 2/3 starter quality x 6 years of team control = 15 WAR
1.5 WAR difference x 6 = 9 WAR
So if there is 75% chance that DLS never throws a pitch as a starter in the MLB considering his command wasn’t so hot to start out with and TJs often sap command. 24 WAR * .25 = 6 WAR and 10 WAR times 50% odds that Capra doesn’t pitch in the majors then you have 15 WAR * .5 = 7.5 WAR. Which is why with an EV equation I think Capra is clearly superior.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 30, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still not clear what the 10 WAR is doing
I get the 24, 15, 9, 6, and 7.5.
I guess where I depart is that I don’t think there’s a 50% chance that Capra provides 15 WAR. I think it’s significantly lower. (I also think DLS’ is high, but it has less distance to fall).
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 30, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is no 10
He means 15. He’s saying successful Capra is 2.5 quality, x 6 years = 15.
I think the “10” is a straggler from dumblefuckland and should be “15”.
My only problem with DFA’s revised argument is the “clearly”. OK, I can see how you did all the rough math in your head to estimate a probable total WAR, and it’s a reasonable conclusion to reach, but there’s way too many rough guesses to say the conclusion is “clear”.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 30, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I, as you would expect, agree
Not only are the guesses rough, the EV equation is oversimplified.
My thinking is more, they each have a 10% chance of hitting their ceiling (DLS: 2.4 WAR credit, Capra 1.5). Capra has a much better chance of making it, but being 0-1 WAR (say, the middle 40% for him: 2.4 WAR but only 20% for DLS: 1.2 WAR). DLS has a much grater chance of being totally valueless (60% for him, 30% for Capra).
DLS: 10% as a 24 WAR pre-FA
20% as a 6 WAR pre-FA
20% somewhere in between
60% total bust
Capra: 10% as a 15 WAR pre-FA
40% as a 6 WAR pre-FA
20% somewhere in between
30% bust
In that scenario, the EV is close and I prefer DLS (Capra’s total number might be a touch higher, DLS’ is more concentrated). In totally unrelated news, I prefer DLS.
Of course, all those numbers are in the wild-guess category.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 30, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Err... minor math fail
That should be 15% for both of DLS’ middle outcomes.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 30, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously this is an integral equation
but I think a key thing that you don’t account for is that FDL’s change up is not a good pitch. He very likely will wind up in the bullpen especially since hes going to start burning options.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 30, 2009 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If coleman is an option, i think jason christian should get a mention
Outside of 1 terrible month in the MWL, he was pretty consistent overall. He does have an issue w/ hitting lefties which may or may not improve. I didnt understand the A’s moving him off SS since I think his athleticism and tools across the board might be better than Coleman. Plus at 6’3" there might seem some power projectability
by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 29, 2009 10:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He'll have his day
I think he’s done enough to remain within the team’s top 30, but he’s clearly outmatched at this point.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Was he injured?
I was just checking his stats and I saw he last played a game on July 16 (interestingly exactly a month after his 22nd b-day). Why was he shut down?
Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports
by nobodyinparticular on Oct 29, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I found a scout.com article that was non-insider
saying he had a separated shoulder.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tough...
This one is tough for me to decide between Coleman, Capra and Stassi. Coleman got off to a really hot start last year in the MWL—uncharacteristically hot for the league and the home ballpark and then tailed off, ending with a pretty terrible overall line. Having found out about his injury, I feel compelled to give him a pass for his last 3 months’ production.
Capra is a guy who I cannot ignore with his great K-rates and posting a very good ERA in Stockton—the great hitters’ league/park. By numbers alone, I would think he has to be much higher on the list, but I have heard that his stuff is not good enough to project into higher levels—Jason Windsor-like.
And with Max Stassi, we have the other side of the coin to Capra high production, low tools. Stassi is a guy who has been very highly touted in the scouting reports. BA recently came out with their draft grades and not only talked about his stellar defense and hit tool, but they compared his power tool to Josh Leyland’s power tool (which everyone absolutely loves BTW). Add this to the fact that he plays a premium defensive position and I ended up voting for the highly touted, toolsy Yuba City product.
Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports
by nobodyinparticular on Oct 29, 2009 10:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Jason Windsor would be a fine MLB pitcher if he hadn't been abused like a draft horse in college
Guy’s arm fell apart.
As far as I know, Capra is completely healthy.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 29, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
I can definitely see your point there.
Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports
by nobodyinparticular on Oct 29, 2009 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude had a K/9 of over 9 and a BB/9 of under 2.5 in AAA. He just fell apart.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 30, 2009 1:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simmons, Mortensen
Or is the latter ineligible ?
IMHO there’s too much focus on upside despite injuries or players performing well in A-Ball, as well as too much scrutiny on a weaker season in tripple A.
by OPS2000 on Oct 29, 2009 12:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Henry again.
The best arm strength of the remaining guys. I’d pick Stassi among the hitters.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Oct 29, 2009 8:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't someone going to answer NSJ's
questions about Coleman? I haven’t voted yet because I’m waiting on that. I’m on the fence about Coleman.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 30, 2009 2:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Let's unrec this one, folks
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 1, 2009 8:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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