Community Prospect List #12.5 - Runoff Election
by Zonis on Oct 27, 2009 2:17 AM PDT
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We've reached our first run-off, between Catcher Max Stassi, and Starting Pitchers Fautino De Los Santos and Tyson Ross. The group is within 4 votes of each other out of over 300 cast, so its time to choose.
You can see the previous thread here.
Tyson Ross, SP, Age 22 - Cal Sports Profile Video
| 2009 Stats | G | W-L | ERA | IP | H | BB | K | SV | WHIP | |
| MID (oak) | AA | 9 | 5-4 | 3.96 | 50 | 40 | 20 | 31 | 0 | 1.20 |
| STO (oak) | A+ | 18 | 5-6 | 4.17 | 86.1 | 78 | 33 | 82 | 0 | 1.29 |
Max Stassi, C, Age 18
| 2009 Stats | G | Bavg | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | R | 2B | |
| VAN (oak) | SS | 13 | .286 | .340 | .367 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
Fautino De Los Santos, SP, Age 23
| 2009 Stats | G | W-L | ERA | IP | H | BB | K | SV | WHIP | |
| AzA (oak) | Rk | 7 | 0-1 | 3.86 | 11.2 | 12 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 1.37 |
131 comments
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Post Here for suggestions for the next player to be added to the vote list.
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
I have Hornbeck at #15 and he's not on the vote yet, so, him
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
+1
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Oct 27, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions
How about Pedro Figueroa
I’m getting pretty close to voting for Capra but I can’t help but think that Figueroa should get consideration around the same spot. He had pretty good numbers although his BB rate spiked a bit higher than I would like in the Cal league. I hadn’t thought about him too much untill BA ranked him as the 7th best prospect in the Cal league this year, a list on which Capra didn’t even appear. Apparently scouts thought he had some the best pure stuff in the league.
In my mind once Capra goes on the list Figueroa and Hornbeck shouldn’t be far behind.
I just saw it
and had to smile…
To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage
Reply fail
To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage
DLS wasn't able to pitch during Instructs
His elbow was barking at him. Gimme Ross, a SP who actually spent some time on the mound and pitched dominant in the AA play-offs.
The monster at the end of this blog.
+2
Whats not to like. 6’6" 225 lbs. Local boy, Bishop O’Dowd High School. What finally did it for me was Ross’ AO/GO ratio.
I would like to see what he could do with Major League quality defense behind him.
That he is a local boy
does make me like him as a future Athletic, but it has no bearing on his ranking as a prospect in my consideration.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Not clear that he really has any significant edge over Stassi in that category, either
I mean, maybe on a technical “miles from his home to the Coliseum” way, but they’re both from Northern California.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I'd actually disagree with that.
A guy who was born in Berkeley, went to high school in Oakland, and went to college in Berkeley feels much more “local boy” to me than a guy from Yuba City.
I mean, sure, Yuba City is in the general area, but it’s not the same town. As an Oakland resident I could easily drive past Bishop O’Dowd or UC Berkeley pretty much any day, whereas a visit to Yuba City is a two-and-a-half-hour trip.
To me, there’s a big difference between being from the immediate vicinity and being from the general area. Perhaps it feels different to a fan from San Francisco or Palo Alto, who feels a connection to the Bay Area generally but not to Oakland specifically.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I guess...
I just figure, if his area’s “local team” isn’t the A’s, who exactly is it?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
From the player's view, I suppose,
the A’s are no less “home team” to Stassi than they are to Ross, but from the team/fans’ view, Ross is more “local boy” than Stassi is.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I'm sticking with Ross as well
Although I will admit that looking back at De Los Santos’ numbers from before the injury tempted me to change my vote, the fact that 18 months after the injury we still don’t have a clear picture on just how sound his arm is was too much of a factor for me.
Voted FDLS in the regular election
but Ross here. Didn’t know he was still having elbow trouble.
And your dream, absolve.
And your path, dissolve.
As I said on the other thread, this is an easy call
Ross is healthy and DLS isn’t, which basically decides the matter when it comes to pitchers.
As for Stassi, I mean, you’ve got a pitcher who’s been good in high-A and OK in AA (again noting that his K/BB ratio was 50/23 after one includes the two playoff starts), versus a high school catcher whose entire professional experience consists of a handful of at-bats in a short-season league. You can’t even really argue “upside” in his favor, since Ross was acknowledged as having first-round stuff (albeit attached to 10th-round mechanics) when the A’s picked him. There’s very little argument for Stassi outside of Shiny New Toy Syndrome, which is not normally considered an “argument”.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
How many guys that are left would you rate ahead of DLS?
Other than Ross, obviously.
"We've come a long way, and I'm not talking about Virginia Slims, either." - Art Howe
Hm.
Coleman, Capra, Hornbeck, probably Kilby and Storey. Maybe a few more. I won’t be voting for him for a while.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Odds are overwhelming that that is the case, yes
I already knew or suspected coming in that that would be true for a number of guys— basically the SNTS brigade (Green, Ynoa, Stassi, Desme) and most of the relief pitchers.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Tommy Everidge for next round
Yes he’s old. 26! So what. He had the fifth highest home run totals (22) in the A’s system in ‘09. He also had the highest batting average (335) in the entire A’s system, which was a drastic improvement from his ‘08 BA of 279. And unlike Cust who he could someday replace, he only struck out 16% of his at bats. And he’s local.
No way
Everidge isn’t a prospect as much as he is a GREAT story. I have/had no problem rooting for him. But he isn’t a top tier prospect based on age and his entire body of work.
I agree
I think we are out of the top tier. Anyone we pick now has a reasonable chance of never making it in the bigs. Everidge is in that situation too but he also has a very impressive AAA track record, which these other guys don’t. Yes he is old and thats why he isn’t in the top tier. If he put up those stats as a 23 year old, he would be in the discussion for top 3. Since he is 3 years older, top 15 seems appropriate. He could be a late bloomer like Nelson Cruz or Jack Cust. I really think he would stick with an NL team, and thats worth something.
by top tier, I meant top 20
I’d vote for Everidge after 20 somewhere. Not before and here is why (in relation to your points above):
1. One partial season at Triple A isn’t exactly a track record, especially considering he posted his highest wOBA in Triple A this season. You’d expect similar numbers at some point along the way or you have to consider it a mirage.
2. Late bloomers are an exception, not a rule (and it is laughable that anyone calls Jack Cust a late bloomer considering in 98 he led his league in walks, OBP, at a .530 clip, and runs. In 99 he led the Cal League in Home Runs, OBP and Slugging. etc. The dude has been a stud since the day he stepped on a professional diamond). You can’t count on an exception.
3. He is 26. He played proball when he was 23 and he didn’t put up those kind of numbers.
I love Tommy Everidge. I’d like him to be successful. I think he can be. I’d project him as a potential right handed bat with pop off the bench who can DH on occasion and spell the first basemen against tough lefties. That isn’t a horrible role to play, it’s kind of like Olmedo Saenz.
I can't argue with those points
But if he can stick at the MLB level somewhere, doesn’t that put him in the top 20 by default? Even if its not exciting.
He still has an outside shot at being a 20+ HR .800+ OPS regular. Not a huge chance, but its there. Defense sucks, but oh well.
I’m normally an upside guy but the odds of the guys we are picking now making it to the majors are 50/50 at best for the most part and except for some of the younger guys, upside is minimal. Everidge’s odds are higher and his upside is also minimal.
I almost think Everidge is too old to be considered for the list… he is like jesus guzman or other roaming minor league FAs that no one talks about as prospects, but might still find a job somewhere. But if we are technically allowing his inclusion, I think he needs to be up for a vote soon. Up to the community if they don’t want to vote for him.
Everidge is like jesus guzman
but in a bad way. In a sense that it’s very plausible that he performs poorly in AAA next year.
As Paul says below, his minor league track record is not suggestive of the success that Nelson Cruz and Jack Cust eventually enjoyed in MLB. With those guys, you could squint and see future 20+ HR, .800 OPS seasons. You’d have to have a telescope to see that with Everidge.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 27, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions
it's actually me and Mrs. Jeans' nephew
:)
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 27, 2009 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Everidge is as much of a prospect as Brian Dopirak is.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
I half agree with this.
I do think there comes a point where Everidge gets consideration, for pretty much all the reasons you cite. I just think it doesn’t happen nearly as soon as you seem to be suggesting. Yes, I would put Everidge above about half of the no-names that are on the “Upcoming Potential Prospects for Voting” list that Zonis adds to the main posts, but that still leaves him well into the 30s.
I might like Everidge a little better if he played a premium position, but 1B is not a position where one is likely to have to scrape AAA looking for. I’ll vote Petit before I’ll vote Everidge, simply because he’s a shortstop (though still not for quite a while).
I could understand why some would argue against putting Everidge on the ballot too soon. The concern would be that casual lurkers who don’t pay any attention to the minor leagues will come along and see Everidge as the only name among eight that they’ve even heard of and vote based only on that. It’s an unfortunate problem in our methodology which isn’t easily avoided. (As I recall, last year Petit was an instant winner as soon as he went on the ballot. I had no quarrel with the result, because I felt he was put on the ballot exactly when I was ready to vote for him, but he probably would have won several positions sooner had he been on the ballot.) On the other hand, we do seek to measure the opinion of the community at large, so if at some point the community wants to vote on name recognition alone, it’s hard to argue against that, either.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Everidge's minor league track record is very UNimpressive
Look at his minor league track record and then look at Nelson Cruz and Jack Cust. There’s no comparison. Cust and Cruz had season after season where they just absolutely mugged the ball. They were to their AAA leagues what Albert Pujols is to MLB— just utterly destroying everything that came their way for year after year.
Really. Go look up their respective pages. The analogy is just unsupportable.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 27, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Fair enough
I don’t expect him to hit like them at the majors either. But if he has a good chance of finding work… it means something. Are we only ranking on star potential? Seems there have been a lot of arguments for guys that have roughly a 25% of being servicible at the MLB level… Everidge is at least that and discounted for defense he should start showing up pretty soon.
But his situation is so different from all these other guys, I almost think he shouldn’t be up for consideration. Cunningham is more in line with this list and we tossed him for too many ABs even though he still hasn’t had a real shot yet.
If Everidge avoids the list altogether, thats fine, but if he shows up in the 30s it will probably be too low.
The rule for being up for consideration is very simple
It’s strictly a matter of a quantity of at-bats. If you have more than 130 ABs or 50 IP, you are not eligible. If you don’t, you’re eligible. Period. Even Matt Carson is eligible.
The problem Everidge faces is that replacement level performance for a DH in Oakland is something like a .730 OPS, and I see no real reason to believe that he will surpass that in the majors. His MLEs simply do not support this if you look beyond 2009.
If I thought he would even be a 1 WAR player for six seasons, it’d be a different story— you could make a decent argument that that’s better than a 10% chance of a guy being a 5 WAR player for six seasons— but I don’t think he’s even all that likely to be above replacement level at all.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Yeah. The probability that Everidge is above replacement in the MLB is low enough to counteract his MLB readiness.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 27, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Speaking of which, I'd probably vote Matt Carson ahead of Everidge, too.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
rec'd
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 27, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
justin friend
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Hard to make much of an argument for him based on stats
I mean, nice K rate, but he was a man among boys in A+ ball. Do you have something else for us to go on? (Other than his status as a fellow ex-Gladiator, natch.)
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
One of these is not like the others
In that he actually has a track record. Of any sort. I went with Ross.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
I get your point
But I think you might be using a bit of hyperbole considering that De Los Santos has actually thrown more pro innings than Ross. So you might not want to say that Ross is the only one with a track record of any sort.
Fair enough
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Oct 27, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Confusion...
it doesn’t appear that Anvioris Ramirez is still on the 40-man roster. However, the A’s transaction page says that he was assigned to the Oakland A’s on 10/24/09. I was under the imprssion that “assigned” to A’s meant – added to the 40-man roster. Does anyone have a clarification? I only ask because if the A’s feel this guy is worthy of a spot on the 40-man roster – doesn’t this make him some sort of a “prospect” for consideration on one of these lists?
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Oct 27, 2009 11:59 AM PDT reply actions
Ross
I went with Ross again. I think I have voted for him in the last three spots as well.
by RoperinFortuna on Oct 27, 2009 12:34 PM PDT reply actions
Voted for Ross here
I actually have two guys ahead of all three of these players. Capra and his plus plus change up and Dusty Coleman and his broken wrist.
Ross’ mechanics are straight horrific but pitcher with bad mechanics who are in AA has better than HS catcher with no real experience. Both are significantly ahead of 23 year olds struggling to get healthy after TJ who have never pitched significantly above low A, even if he has dominant stuff.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 27, 2009 1:26 PM PDT reply actions
Is Capra's change up really plus plus?
A few articles have mentioned that his change is a very good pitch and the good strike out numbers seem to confirm that, but when I think of a plus plus tool I think of something truly elite and I haven’t heard any indication that Capra’s pitch rises to that level.
I would expect that it gets best in system grades from BA
it might not be plus plus, but it is definitely plus.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 27, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions
You or Paul might need to write a fanpost about Dusty Coleman
Because you’re both very intelligent, well-read guys and yet your views on those two seem to be far different than that of the majority of our posters, myself included.
I look at Coleman and see a guy who was drafted in the 28th round and has struck out 190 times in only 545 at-bats in a little over a year of pro baseball. That’s horrific, and it’s not like it comes with plus-plus power – his SLG in those 545 at-bats is under .400. So we’ve got a guy who is striking out at a pace that would be record-breaking over a full MLB season, but he’s hitting with the power of a light-hitting shortstop. Not a good combo.
And these alarming struggles are happening in A/A+ ball! He’s still light years away from the major leagues. If he were 18-19 and he had that horrible plate discipline at that age in A ball, we’d give him a mulligan, much like Angel Villalona’s prospect status entering ‘09. (Unless Coleman also killed someone in bar fight – that would drop him a few extra spots for sure). But Coleman’s not 18-19. He turns 23 at the beginning of the season next year. He’s no spring chicken to still be putting up really bad plate discipline numbers in A ball.
I get that he was an overslot signing, which somewhat mitigates the fact that he was drafted in the 28th round as a draft-eligible sophomore. But 29 other teams could’ve taken him prior to round 28, especially in any one of the typically worthless rounds between 20-27. And they didn’t. Why?
We could somewhat excuse the poor numbers with the news that he was playing hurt last year. But why would you strike out significantly more with an injured wrist? It would affect your power numbers, yes. But your plate discipline?
I know that for some ANers, hearing about the wrist injury made them feel better about Coleman, because it excused some of his 2009 performance. For me, it’s hard to feel good about a broken wrist. For some hitters, that’s the kiss of death, and they never fully recover. It’s one of the worst injuries a baseball player can suffer.
I won’t be voting for Coleman until after our wave of highly projectible relievers goes off the board. Coleman is guy our community is all over the map on. Some people started voting for him at 11. I won’t vote for him until about 20, from the looks of the remaining guys I see on the list. I think his lone chance of even cracking the big leagues as a utility IF is if he plays defense like John McDonald of the Blue Jays. Because his statline and status as a very late-round draft pick (which is a slightly useful albeit rudimentary proxy for scouting) don’t suggest to me that he’ll hit well enough to be a major league regular.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 27, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Will do
Broken wrists take a while to heal and sap power for like a year, but I don’t really know who doesn’t recover from them.
The other thing you are missing is he was considered a nearly impossible sign as a sophomore eligible draft pick and the A’s ponied up some serious money to get him. People didn’t think he would sign and would come back for his jr. year when he would still have leverage.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 27, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
i'm not missing that part
I mentioned it my post. That same dynamic existed for all 30 teams. “Very difficult signs” with great talent get drafted lower than their talent level every year. If Coleman were perceived by anyone as a special talent, there’s no way he lasts to the 28th round, regardless of how difficult he is to sign.
Being a draft-eligible sophomore doesn ’t possibly change the equation that much.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 27, 2009 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I've said before that I don't understand the draft process in MLB at all
I think any professional Magic player worth his salt could absolutely school MLB GMs on drafting technique.
That being said, players drop way down the list every single season. Lars Anderson was taken in the 18th round and a year and a half later he was getting tapped as a top 25 prospect. Every single team could have taken him in the 17th round. The A’s drafted somebody named Michael Ambort, who I have literally never heard of in my life, instead. Had any of those teams just wasted a pick on the guy, the Red Sox wouldn’t have an extra top prospect and he’d be in college instead— surely a better outcome than getting some irrelevant organizational player. For some reason, that strategy seems to be viewed as uncouth or something.
Once you get past the 10th round, it barely matters exactly how far a player falls. Nick Maronde lasted until the 42nd round in 2008, and he’s a Boras guy who was seen as like a 2nd round talent.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I can't believe that people get paid to play Magic, sports, or video games. It's just not fair.
m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!
I don't know
I think it ought to be worth some money to be good at a game that’s as insanely difficult to play well as Magic…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Especially when you consider how much money a good deck will cost you these days
What’s not fair is that I haven’t figured out a way to get paid for doing my leisure activities.
m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!
Ron Jeremy does.
I’m sure you could find something.
And your dream, absolve.
And your path, dissolve.
I'll defer to you on this one
I need to work on my Tampa Bay trade post…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
it will probably invite grover's fury but oh well
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 28, 2009 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Ill be a little clearer about my labling things ceilling projections and expected projections
but I still bet there will be a little blue muppet full of rage somewhere.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 28, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions
nope i plan on using LL scouting reports
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 28, 2009 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Lookout Landing has scouting reports on Dusty Coleman?
Huh.
If they’re current I’m happy and as for the math… that’s now solidly in the I. Don’t. Care. column.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I meant little league.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 28, 2009 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I know people who'll make sure the authorities will never find your typing fingers
The monster at the end of this blog.
Voice recognition software FTW!
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 29, 2009 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Whose, yours or mine?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
mine
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 28, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Some good points here
Coleman was never projected to have all that much power as a college prospect, I believe. That means the majority of his contributions at the plate will probably have to come from his ability to get on base and play defense. He gets good marks on defense from some sources…but even in the NW league, before the injury, his plate discipline was atrocious – 4 BB against 26 Ks in 74 AB. Yowza. Almost all of his value as a hitter for Vancouver came from his batting average. In a very small set of ABs.
It’s possible he could turn it around with more experience but you can’t assume that will happen. In my book, he’s firmly in the Dixon/Hunter group of guys with potential, but way too many unanswered questions to rate against guys with established track records of success like Ross, Capra, or even Hornbeck.
The thing is, the injury seems to have affected his plate discipline too
at least indirectly. He put up a 22/54 walk to strikeout ratio in April and May (with 8 home runs)— mediocre, but certainly something you can deal with from a guy on a pace to hit 20-plus home runs and playing a decent shortstop.
Then he got injured, and it was 28/98 the rest of the season (with 1 home run). It’s not really a surprise that pitchers were pumping fastballs when he couldn’t do anything with them.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
That early season stretch is such a small sample size to base a projection on
Especially as it came in low-A ball. And even if you take those numbers as some semblance of true ability, then he was still on track to rack up approx. 150 K. That’s a very high number and something that, a la Desme, should throw up huge red flags. That’s something that will – not may, will – be exploited at higher levels.
Anyway, I’m not even saying he’s not a prospect, it’s just I don’t see how he can be talked about as better than Ross. At virtually the same age (Ross is two days younger), Ross performed very well at a level higher than Coleman. Coleman still has to prove he can hit capably over a full season. There’s a very real performance question there, which isn’t hanging over Ross’s head.
I think there IS a very real performance question hanging over Ross's head
Well, two if you count injury risk as a performance question, but everyone knows about that.
Ross’s problem is that his whiff rate is pretty pedestrian for a guy who’s supposed to have big stuff, and he doesn’t make up for it with pinpoint control. I’ll defer to scouts to the extent that I put him in front of Capra and Hornbeck, who haven’t reached AA yet and might be getting whiffs more with guile than with stuff, but I’m not going to reach to put him in front of a position player.
As for Coleman, maybe I am putting too much weight on a small sample, but it’s basically the only sample that we’ve got that isn’t tainted by injury. I know the A’s thought he was basically sandwich-round talent last season, and when he’s healthy he’s played (Ks notwithstanding) like someone deserving of that draft slot.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Well yes, every prospect has some kind of performance question
But there is a matter of degrees here. I know you’re looking at this as a matter of positional player value (especially SS) vs. pitcher value, and I can see where you’re coming from, but at the moment Coleman just has too many unknowns. Would you take Coleman over Green? I wouldn’t.
Ross’s K rates aren’t astounding, but he has a pretty clear pattern of scuffling a bit during his first few starts at a level, then adapting and flourishing. His last ten starts at A+ he struck out 9.6 per 9; pretty good rate there. And judging from his playoff starts, it looked like he had hit that level in AA as well. It’s much easier to see him having a very solid AA season in 2010 than it is to see Coleman succeeding even at Stockton. That’s just too big of a difference for me.
'Would you take Coleman over Green?'
Well, since Green is #6 on our community list, I think the consensus on that is no.
I’m more interested in thinking about Coleman for #13. I have a lot of concerns about him, but I’m not thrilled about anyone else who’s left either. Assuming Ross wins this runoff, I’m currently undecided on whom to vote for next.
Comparing Coleman to Green or Ross is moot. I’m more interested in thinking about how Coleman compares to guys like Stassi, FDLS, and Capra.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Wasn't asking the group, was asking PT
I’m certain Green wasn’t his #6.
Actually I think he was.
If I remember correctly: 1. Carter 2. Cardenas 3. Wallace 4. Weeks 5. Brown 6. Green.
Not sure about it, but almost certain he has Green above Coleman.
by Elston Gunn on Oct 28, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I might have said that once upon a time, but that's not the case for me right now
I’ve currently got Leon at 6, Donaldson at 7 and Doolittle at 8. Green is 9, followed by Desme, then Ynoa, then Coleman.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I might
just to be cantankerous and because Green gives me a really bad feeling.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 28, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Care to explain?
Green walloped the ball in college at a level that Coleman never matched (in a much more elite conference), even in his supposedly “blah” junior year. Many scouts had pegged him as a top-5 talent, and he got high marks in the instructs. If you’re taking Coleman, that’s a lot to peg on 8 homers and…questionable plate discipline.
I mean, Green’s not in my top 10 but that’s only because I’m extremely biased against guys who haven’t proven themselves over a full year.
I haven't thought much about it really but
Defensive concerns coupled with a blah junior year really sour me on Green. Even with a broken wrist TZ thought that Coleman was an average defensive SS.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 28, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't quite understand all the negativity about Green's Jr. year
I understand that relative to expectations, it wasn’t good – it was a slightly worse year at the plate than his sophomore year, and people were expecting him to make a leap into the top 2-3 draft prospects in the country. But it was still a really good year. His Jr. year numbers look very similar to Troy Tulowitzki’s, for example. Or Ian Kinsler’s.
The defensive questions, I can take or leave. Almost every big-hitting IF prospect coming out of college gets defensive questions raised about him. Sometimes it’s legit, sometimes it’s just prejudice against perception. Until he’s put in a year or two at SS, I am withholding judgment.
Im for prejudice
I understand that I have made a rash decision on Green. That being said Im more than happy to change it as more data appears, but I believe in taking the data that we have and making a best evaluation with what I have to work with.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 28, 2009 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Ross
I had Stassi before the runoff, but I regretted that vote and here is my chance to make it up. Not sure if the two losers of the runoff go back into the fold after this. If so, I’ll vote Stassi next round and then someone other than FDLS.
i think you just negated your impact in this vote
If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.
So far, the runoff is looking considerably
less close than I expected, given how extremely close the three were in the main round.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
I'm actually not that surprised.
I’d guess a very high percentage of the people that voted for Capra or Coleman had Ross ahead of DLS and Stassi.
I think people often change their mind one they see the options narrowed down
It’s sometimes difficult to examine what you really think when you’re looking at several people at once.
Fautino of the Santos
If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.
The Saints' little lucky one.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Geeeeeez.
Mychael Urban was right when he used the phrase, “puttin’ on a clinic”.
And your dream, absolve.
And your path, dissolve.
Well, we know he can hit the snot out of the ball in extreme hitter's parks...
Quick, trade him to the D-Backs for most of their farm system!
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
This is beginning to get to the point that I start to care.
I mean isn’t he approaching the HR=GP point?
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 28, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes
10 HR in 12 Games. I think Brandon Wood has the record with 14. It looks like he will shatter that.
Wow
I knew Brandon Wood had an incredible 2005 season, but I hadn’t realized he hit 14 HR in the AFL that year, too. That’s incredible. He hit 43 during the regular season that year.
That was his age 21 season. Mostly produced from the shortstop position.
Someone explain to me how he does not have a big league job yet.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
No, wait, it was age 20.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
two words : Mike Scoscia.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 28, 2009 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmmm, I will explain it
1. He’s not that good.
2. He’s been horrible in his mlb time.
3. He is clearly worse than Figgns, worse than pretty clearly worse than Aybar.
4. His mle obp has never reached .300.
5. 74:7 (!!!) K/BB for his mlb career.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
I know he's been horrible in MLB, but it's like 200 PA
Even if you’re going by MLEs, his numbers are pretty decent for a young shortstop.
I don’t think that it’s clear that he’s worse than Aybar at all. Aybar, fluke-lucky 2009 notwithstanding, is a terrible hitter. Unless Wood is awful defensively, which I have no particular reason to believe, he’s a significantly better prospect.
All I can say is that I sure hope to God the Angels think like you do.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Aybar is a minimum of 5 runs better defensively, and probably more like 10 or even more
There have always been doubts about him sticking at SS, and the Angels appear to share those doubts. Aybar is not really a terrible hitter. He’s probably like a .715 or so OPS player. He hit better than Wood last year, and much better this year. Wood is still young and might well be better in the future, but it’s silly to argue that he should already have been part of their team. It seems likely he’ll be at 3B next year.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
10 HR in 12 games.
Getting there.
.469/.544/1.143 after today.
That’s AVG/OBP/SLG, by the way, not AVG/OBP/OPS.
And your dream, absolve.
And your path, dissolve.
Yeah Its redic I know.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 28, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Stats
12 Games played for Desme:
10 HR, 3 2B, 19 R, 22 RBI, 1 SB, 8 BB, 14 K, .469 BA, .544 OBP, 1.143 SLG
The walks are a good sign but I think more than a few were of the 4 pitch variety as a couple pitchers didn’t want anything to do with him it seemed. Still noticing a lot of swinging strikes but he also gets a lot of first pitch hits. Also seen a lot of what gameday shows as line drive outs so its possible even his outs are loud.
I mean the pitching does kind of suck in the AFL.
What is the K rate? Really thats what I care about a lot more than the HRs.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 28, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
For the first time, they've installed Pitchf/x cameras in the minor leagues.
In the AFL. Usually, we only get Pitchf/x data to work with when a player hits the majors, but they installed the cameras in Surprise and Peoria (home to three of the six teams). After the league finishes, I’ll see if I can work with the data a bit, and give a writeup on the seven guys we have down there.
And your dream, absolve.
And your path, dissolve.
Its high 20s on K rate
Little better than before but its too be expected when you OBP over .500.
He is either hitting the ball hard, walking or striking out. Haven’t seen a groundout yet, but I haven’t seen every at bat…
Signal-to-noise ratio on Desme makes it really tough to get a read
One guy says he can’t hit breaking balls, another guy says he can’t hit fastballs. (Well, clearly he can hit something.) One guy says he can handle center, another guy says no. Some people say he’s very athletic, some people say he’s thick and un-. Nobody seems to have seen the same player twice. Frustrating.
As hilarious as these Desme AFL games are to track, deep in my heart, I still think he’s a .260/.330/.430-type hitter, and he’ll probably be in left or right. Not quite enough there.
Urban article
The interesting part is on his defense and speed. Lieppman said he has an above average arm and is the third fastest player in the organization… both of these points are news to me and I really have trouble believing the second one as much as I want to.
who else would be faster?
wimberly
dixon
house
weeks (when healthy)
by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 28, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions
maybe patterson
one could argue corey brown might still have more upside and tools than desme too
by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 28, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Probably not more pure speed
though he’s a better defender than Desme and also probably a better overall athlete.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
All of them
I would guess. I am happy if Desme is that fast… I just never heard anyone say he was even close to that fast until now. Lieppman might just be hyping his own guy, but my opinion of Desme is improving either way.
Cliff Pennington
Jason Christian
Michael Richard
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Davis, obviously, if he's including the MLB team
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I don't have a problem believing it.
He quoted the 60-yard-dash time. Amazing what being healthy can do.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Ehhhhh
I don’t trust that measurement at all. “Dash” times are notoriously manipulable and inaccurate. Half the time it’s just some random dude with a stopwatch.
Maybe he’s that fast, but that “time” tells us almost nothing about whether he is or not.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
All you need to look at is the difference between the NFL Combine and the pro days.
Dash times vary wildly, depending on the surface the players run on, the timing mechanism (electronic, or stopwatch), etc.
In either case, Desme’s quick. Whether or not he’s actually third in the organization is definitely debatable.
And your dream, absolve.
And your path, dissolve.
This
I’m in the do not care camp.
He’s fast. That’ll either translate to steals (and other baserunning/defensive measurements) or it wont. A fast human can still be a shitty baserunner and take shitty routes. Those are the things that matter.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Dude the wind makes a huge difference in combine/pro day times.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 29, 2009 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Interesting note from BA's draft report card
>> BEST POWER HITTER: Cs Max Stassi (4) and Josh Leyland (16) both have plus raw power, with the edge going to Leyland. He’s short to the ball and long afterward.
I had thought that Stassi didn’t really have that much raw power and was highly ranked because of his high amount of polish for a high schooler. It’s only one little blurb but I figured it was worth mentioning.
Oh and this is in reference to the A’s most recent draft if that wasn’t clear, so this is only comparing him to other draft picks.
That stuck out for me too, especially since he's short
I’ve also seen two different videos where his arm appeared very weak, but they praised his arm too….
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
I definitely heard Stassi described as having power potential
Which isn’t any kind of slam-dunk, of course— Matt Sulentic was described as having power potential, too— but it’s out there.
With regard to height, it’s not impossible that he will continue growing for another year or two. Which might explain some of the power-potential comments.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
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