Athletics Nation: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Post-UNC Thoughts

Stealing during Jack Cust's PA


Nico's comment in the other thread got me thinking a bit, so I ran some numbers.

Here is what he said:

Note: One argument against Cust #2 is that it’s pointless to steal when he’s up because so many of Cust’s successes move the runner from 1B to 2B, or all the way home, anyway. True. However, just don’t try to steal when Cust is up. If Cust stricks out, you might send the runner while the next hitter is up, trying to turn Cust’s unproductive out into a more productive one. This is not a huge problem, compared to the value of having a .370 OBP guy at the top of the order and the value of not having a .240 hitter constantly batting with RISP.

I used the Expected Run Matrix from BP and Basebal Reference data on Cust and Rajai. For purposes of this evaluation, Jack Cust ceased to be a Three True Outcomes player and became Nine Vulgar Outcomes kind of guy. Here they are, in descending order of probability, based on his 2007-2009 Oakland numbers:

K - 31.8%
BB, HBP - 18.3%
FO - 13.8%
1B - 11.5%
GO, no DP - 9.1%
GIDP - 7.4%
HR - 4.9%
2B - 3.1%
3B - 0.1%

EDIT: Changed the percentage of GIDP. Wrongly had it as percentage of all his PA, and not the ones where GIDP can happen. Using his career numbers for first base occupied instead and doing some guesswork, too. For a career Cust had 343 PA with a runner on first and grounded into 17 DP. Not being able to find double splits (perhaps someone can help) I am just assuming that those PA were evenly spread over 0, 1 and 2 out situations. This would mean that Cust grounded into 17 double plays in about 230 plate appearances where the runner was on first and less than two outs, or roughly 7.4% of the times. This comes as somewhat of a surprise to me and means that with a runner on first and less than two outs, Cust is 50% more likely to ground into double play than he is to homer.

Rajai's numbers I used were his baserunning ones, namely:

SB/SBA - 77.5%
CS/SBA - 22.5%
1st-3rd on a single - 47.5%
1st-2nd on a single - 52.5%
1st-home on a double - 84.6%
1st-3rd on a double - 15.4%

Two numbers were estimated, and although they might not be accurate, their overall influence is not significant. I assumed Davis will advance from second to third on a groundout 2 out of 3 times, and on a flyball 1 out of 3 times.

Huge introduction and now it's time to look for the answer - is stealing ahead of Cust much worse than ahead of average MLB player?

Star-divide

First of all let's see what happens when Rajai is on first and MLB average player is hitting behind him. ERM says that with runner on 1st and nobody out, there will be on average 0.926 runs scored in that inning. With runner on second and nobody out (stolen base) the number increases to 1.160, while without baserunners and with one out (caught stealing) it drops all the way down to 0.287. So how does this play out?

Sbattemptmlb_medium


If RD steals on 77.5% of his attempts, it will increase the expected amount of runs Oakland should score. Yeah, but that is not ahead of Cust, you say, the man will either walk or homer, so why take the risk?

Here is first what happens during Spartacusts at bat if Rajai successfully steals one:

Custsb_medium

and here is what happens if he is caught:

Custcs_medium

 

Combining these two with the known probability of both events, we come up with expected runs for a stolen base attempt during Cust's PA:

Sbattemptcust_medium

And it is actually higher than a SB attempt during "normal person's" PA, even if only by a tad. So Cust batting second can not be dismissed on the merit of "ruining the running game". I would love to do the same for 1 and 2 outs situations or to stay and chat while you find flawed numbers in this post, but it is almost midnight and tomorrow is Monday.

 

 


13 recs  |  Comment 43 comments  |  Add comment

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

really nice

I love seeing a small little detail worked out properly, as you do here (and even more interesting when you find the non-intuitive result).

Imagine a world where managers worked this stuff out themselves and understood the results! I’m not saying that this sort of situation is really so simple, and I’m sure that there are times when you would want to go against the numbers (if for no other reason than game theory strategies of avoiding predictability).

by colin on Oct 25, 2009 3:23 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Rec

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 25, 2009 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's the problem...

The largest component of what you’ve measured is just that Cust(07-09) is better than the average hitter, so the RE will necessarily be higher after all this stuff happens than if an average hitter was up, regardless of what Rajai does. Cust in that timeframe was .034 runs above average per PA. So the baseline for Cust’s PA for purposes of this comparison should be .926+.034=.96, which means you get .012 runs out of the SB attempt versus .04 for the SB attempt with an average hitter up, which backs up the intuitive point of view. Plus, Cust’s .034 above average per PA will be even higher for the runner on first, 0 outs, situation, and lower for something like runner on third, 1 out.

The Book chapter on SBs (which I have not read) addresses this stuff in great detail and makes the (intuitive) conclusion that you want to steal bases in front of guys who hit a lot of singles relative to XBHs and BBs.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 25, 2009 4:07 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

three very good points

by NRC on Oct 25, 2009 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Love point #3.

After all, we know that Jack Cust eats fastballs for lunch. If the threat of Rajai running got him more fastballs, that would be just plain awesome. I think the decline in Cust’s stats are due in part to the fact that the league throws him less fastballs now that they know what happens to them (and your numbers support this). Rajai batting ahead of him could actually be something of a tonic for that deficiency.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looking at Fangraphs

it would seem that his decline is not due to seeing less fastballs, but rather doing less with them. 53.7% of the pitches he saw last year were fastballs, compared to 51.0% and 53.3% in ’07 and ’08 respectively.

However, he’s only 0.84 runs above average per 100 on those fastballs, compared to 2.67 and 2.27 in the two preceding years.

by Pero on Oct 25, 2009 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good to know--thanks.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 27, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

just on the surface

it would appeal in terms of stealing in the first inning, just situationally beyond stats…. JC being someone who sees so many pitches and stealing being a lot about a runner getting a lead and seeing the pitcher work so he can get the tipoffs for that day as to where the pitcher’s going and whatnot. So JC hitting second wouldn’t strike me as immediately a hamper on Raj because JC would walk him to 2nd anyway… it’d be much the opposite, esp. in a first inning where a pitcher can be so vulnerable to the big inning before getting settled into a game and all that. To be honest, if Raj himself were to ask me what part of his game I feel needs the most work, I might say “too much dancing off bases trying to distract the pitcher ends up distracting the hitter.”

I’d like to see breakdowns as per the 1st inning situation vs. other innings where JC would hit with Raj on 1st, but that sample size in probably pretty small up to now. But instinctually (not at all really a stats head here) the idea that JC is 3TO doesn’t scratch him from hitting behind RD leading off… not on the basis of his affect on RD’s running game anyway. Of course, I could think of a few other reasons why JC isn’t a good choice for #2, but those are a whole other fanpost entirely LOL

Hey, I just bought the team from Lew Wolff... who wants to play third?

by emperor nobody on Oct 25, 2009 4:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the real question is

can Rajai go from 1rst to 3rd on a walk

by Future Ed on Oct 25, 2009 4:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If anyone can do it, Rajai probably can.

May I just point out that my comment has been (unintentionally) misrepresented by publishing an excerpt? The excerpt is the start of a comment saying, “You could argue…” and finishing with, “…but it’s actually not a problem because…”

Readers looking only at the excerpt would think I was against batting Cust #2 (whereas I’m for it), and that I opposed it on the basis of the base-stealing issue (and I’m arguing the opposite).

So…just fo’ the record, I would bat Cust #2 and I wouldn’t steal much while he was at bat but wouldn’t consider that to be stifling to the running game — guys like Rajai can steal when other hitters are up, after Cust hasn’t walked or HRed.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry for that, Nico

It was, indeed unintentional and is now corrected

To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage

by elcroata on Oct 25, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ah, much better! Thanks.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 8:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But can Rajai score from 3rd on a BB with runners on 2nd and 3rd?

That’s the important question here.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Oct 26, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only Ricky Peters can do that

Sorry, Rickey Peters.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 26, 2009 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I appreciate the effort.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 25, 2009 5:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

And as I can not fall asleep

and hope more math will do the trick, here some more numbers.

Running on an off-speed pitch has a measurable element to it. A 90 mph fastball needs 0.44 seconds to reach the plate, a 75 mph curveball 0.53. This might not seem like much difference, but a fast MLB runner will cover almost three extra feet in the added time.

Another element is the pick-off, which is much harder to do with a curveball grip.

To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage

by elcroata on Oct 25, 2009 5:49 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

hey, what numbers are you using for a 'fast MLB runner'?

I’m toying with an idea about throwing, and this was one of my unknowns

by bobnothing on Oct 25, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mine :)

No, seriously, a top speed of a track sprinter running 100m in 11 seconds (something that most good baserunners in MLB easily do) is roughly 10m/s. After about 20 yards it is 8-9 m/s.

To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage

by elcroata on Oct 25, 2009 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

hm, ok, thanks

like you did, I presume, I’m having to convert everything to SI units…

by bobnothing on Oct 26, 2009 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would very strongly suggest that

To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage

by elcroata on Oct 26, 2009 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My critiques of this post are mostly summed up by what MikeA said

Bottom line, I think stealing in front of Cust is probably a slightly worse idea (the break-even success point is slightly higher, in other words) than an average hitter, but not nearly enough so that the A’s should manipulate their optimal batting order to avoid it.

Ultimately, I think the most important part of this post is the demonstration that stealing in front of Cust IS valuable at the demonstrated success rate of Rajai Davis. Maybe not as valuable as “normal,” but still valuable.

Great work. You should consider writing some Staturday posts during the long offseason!

[Final point: To the extent that I have any problem with the Davis-1st-Cust-2nd arrangement, it’s in the “Davis-1st” part… although I have to admit that, the lineup being what it is right now, there may not be any better alternative…]

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 6:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I was going to mention this

but PT beat me to it. Calculating the break-even SB% would also be a good way of determining which hitters help or hurt the running game.

by colin on Oct 25, 2009 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And the points MikeA made are all true and well taken.

This is what I love about this site – if you take a little effort and put together some numbers, there are so many [people who will help you make sense of it and find a flaw, if there is one. The point of this post was not to preach a viewpoint, but rather to try to quantify one.

Thanks.

To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage

by elcroata on Oct 25, 2009 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have a maths question

Is the GIDP % what he does when there are runners on base or a percentage of total PAs because that would make a huge difference.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 8:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Has to be total PA

No one’s that good at staying out of double plays. Even a player with the speed of Ichiro and the flyball tendencies of Frank Thomas wouldn’t be THAT good.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right which changes the percentages of times Cust would double off Davis if he staid put.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

True

To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage

by elcroata on Oct 25, 2009 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Changed it, thanks

To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage

by elcroata on Oct 25, 2009 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does anyone have the situational double splits on Cust?

As edited in the post, I am looking for runner on 1st, less than 2 outs. Found runner on first, and derived the 7.4% GIDP rate for such situations.

To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage

by elcroata on Oct 26, 2009 2:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

362 Opportunities 23 GIDP 6%

According to Baseball-reference.com

There you go!

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 26, 2009 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Total PAs

20 GIDP in 1717 PA.

To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage

by elcroata on Oct 25, 2009 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that is still crazy

didn’t Ben Grieve and Jason Kendall hit into that many DPs in one season?

You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}

by micdog2001 on Oct 26, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

20, or 1717?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 26, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

20 x 1717

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 26, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jack Cust is very good at avoiding double plays, yes

He’s also very good at avoiding popups.

You’ll notice these are never mentioned by the people who are convinced that “situational hitting” is nothing more than some weirdly abstract process involving a runner at third with one out every other at-bat.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 26, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ugh, *those* people.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 27, 2009 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wasn't referring to you.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 27, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 28, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great work

So much of this is knowing how to find the right tools to test a hypothesis and knowing how to design the test.

You mostly nailed it.

by ohmangoAs on Oct 26, 2009 1:24 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Another (somewhat) quantifiable effect of Cust batting 2nd as opposed to 6th

are increased plate appearances. If there is a consensus (consensus on Cust, now there’s a good one) that Cust would hit somewhere along the lines of his 3yr average, each one of his PA would bring .034 runs above average (as MikeA pointed out).

Over a course of a season, a number two hitter has roughly 70 more PA than number 6 does. This translates into little bit over 2 runs. Not much, but still more than slightly diminished profits resulting from Rajai’s running game (and that is not even taking into account arguments written here).

To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage

by elcroata on Oct 26, 2009 2:39 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Another factor with Cust at the plate and Rajai at 1st

which I brought up in a comment a few months ago: if Rajai steals 2B with Cust at the plate, does the infield take the Cust shift off?

If they play the full shift, the 3B will be about 60 feet from 3B when the pitcher starts his motion — basically inviting Rajai to jog to 3B. If the 3B plays closer to the bag, then there’s a huge hole in the infield where the SS should be, and I think Cust could learn to tap the ball there.

If the infield plays in a normal alignment, then Cust’s BABIP goes up, since there’s suddenly more room on the right side of the infield for a grounder or line drive to get through.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Oct 26, 2009 3:35 PM PDT reply actions   2 recs

This might actually be among the best arguments

for batting Rajai-Cust 1-2 (or consecutively, anyway). Assuming Rajai can OBP .340 or better. (Though if he can’t, I suppose you could bat Rajai 9th and Cust leadoff).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 26, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about Oakland Athletics.

Community Guidelines ANcillary Terms
Start posting about the Athletics »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Depaulbluedemons_small
Community Prospect List #17
Imgp0089_editedagasin_small
DLD 11/17/09 - Nintendo 64 and a Nerd's top 10 Epic Movie Fights
Me_at_att_park_small
Greener Grass, Episode 6: It's All About Culture
Cimg0007_small
Bailey wins ROY!!!!
Depaulbluedemons_small
Community Prospect List #16

Recent FanPosts

Countdown_small
Some things I am "coming around" on...
Bill_king_small
On Trading Catchers....
Small
A's ink 10 year deal with KTRB 860 am
Bill_king_small
Huston Street and the Blown Save
413niegoftl__sl500_aa280__small
UPDATE: Denorfia Outrighted; Becomes 6-Year Minor League Free Agent
Small
Free agents and ballpark

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SPONSORS


Managers

Tyler_at_maya_school_small Tyler Bleszinski

08-_the_author_small 67MARQUEZ

Baseball_small baseballgirl

Poochini-butt_in_box_2_small Nico

As_kings_cal_small louismg

Editors

Countdown_small Taj Adib

Ziegler160px_small Flashfire

527918550406_0_bg_small notsellingjeans