May Be Overplayed. But My Ideal Off-Season

The biggest problems I see with this are

Daric Barton should be given another shot to play first. he finished well this year, I think that should mean it’s his position to lose.

penciling in Kennedy to play 3rd again isn’t a very good solution to a gaping hole on our current roster, yes he had a very hot start, but towards the end of the year his numbers on offense trailed off and his defense at 3rd all year was atrocious.

Wallace needs a full year in AAA to work on his Defense.

If we’re going to spend money on a free agent infielder it should be at 3rd, and should definately not be an injury prone player, we’ve already got a few of those.

E Gon…should be GONE, he’s terrible. Same with Cassilla.

Wertz was lights out and under team control for cheap, is it really a good idea to trade a known commodity for an unknown? In this case I don’t think it is.

Devine shouldn’t be counted on until we know how well his recovery has gone with in game action.

Looking at what you have above you have 2 left fielders and no dh in the lineup.

No mention of the rest of the 25 man roster? who are the bench players?

You spent $26 mil on FA signings, leaving only 1m left from the supposed $27 mil surplus…I’m pretty sure we’ll be over $1M in arbitration raises. ( I may be wrong there)

Good start, but it needs some work.

by VV A's fan on Oct 23, 2009 3:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Among other things, Edgar Gonzalez is already "gone"

He was designated for assignment about 3 weeks ago.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 23, 2009 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

:)

Yes sir!

"What a joke." ~ Booby Crosby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 24, 2009 6:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You have...

a few good ideas here. I don’t like getting rid of wurtz. Had a phenomenal year. Great to have 2 in not three late inning guys b/c I am sure the A’s will still be limiting the young pitchers innings next year.

by jasonlbe on Oct 23, 2009 3:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

also

even with the year that Wuertz had, I think that this statement is wishful thinking:

I see no reason why a major league caliber hitter couldn’t be had for him

Relief pitchers just aren’t worth that much.

by colin on Oct 23, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My thoughts

1. Wuertz is good trade bait if we can get something we need. I’m fine if we keep him though.

2. Could go either way on Cust. For the price I think he is worth hanging onto unless there is some other great option. I don’t see one right now…

3. Agree add a SP or 2. Duke needs to be offered arbitration assuming he is medically cleared. We haven’t heard much on this since I think he is still working things out. This may not even be an option though so we need a backup. Tomko is ok but if we sign him I would want another vet as backup so only 1 of them needs to be good. I think Bedard, Hudson etc. will get too much $$.

4. Not sure this is the year to add a 1B/OF bat. We have depth at those spots but not a good idea of who should be playing. I say let the young guys work it out and then reevaluate next year when the team will be more competitive and signing a FA will be of greater benefit.

5. We can’t guarantee him a starting spot all year so I doubt he would choose to play here. I would prefer someone who can play 3B and SS since we will need a backup SS. We also shouldn’t sign anyone that will block Wallace or Cardenas. We don’t have too many roster spots if you look at it, even with none of the AAA guys making the team out of camp. Its hard to fit someone like Kennedy in now that Crosby and all his backup suckiness is gone.

6. Kilby yes… Demel… not sure he is ready.

The rest:

I would not sign any of those 4 guys. Save the money.

Johnson isn’t much better than Barton so why waste the money when barton is still young.

Surprisingly successful NL vet pitchers who somehow did well this year… recipe for disaster in the AL.

Jermaine is old and on the decline… I also don’t think he will recall his time here fondly… we gave him a hard time in the last year of his deal.

My vote is to stick with youth and sign a temporary 3B, backup SS… not sure who that is. Maybe Hairston Jr., maybe Iwamura… I wish there were better options.

I’d like to see Cunningham get a real shot in the OF. At least platoon him with someone. Then again I wouldn’t mind patterson getting some time too. Really we should package an OF or two for some infield depth… though I suppose lots of teams want to do that.

I’m done with Buck.

by DrDoom on Oct 23, 2009 3:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Like the Iwamura option.

by brian.only on Oct 24, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm all for keeping Cust in Oakland...

I willing to bet that he will have a nice rebound and will just live and die with his BB to K ratio.

"What a joke." ~ Booby Crosby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 25, 2009 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Letting Cust go would allow more playing time for Hairston, Davis, Sweeney, Buck and Cunningham

The winner of Buck and Cunningham and Powell could alternate at DH and still play good defense in the field.

Sign Kennedy if the A’s want to bring Wallace up mid year.. Sign a FA 3B if not.

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Oct 25, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You lost me...

After you had Sweeney in center and Davis in left. That and spelling Suzuki’s name “Sazuki.”

Wade Hines

by Wader on Oct 23, 2009 4:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Also

2 LF’s in Davis and Hairston.

Wade Hines

by Wader on Oct 23, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Andre Bailey?

who’s that?

by VV A's fan on Oct 23, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Center for the Warriors, no?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 23, 2009 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Together, they'll have a very very good UZR / 150 I'd bet.

"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau

by King Richard on Oct 23, 2009 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can we compile a list of players capable of an .850 OPS and 25-30 homers for 3.5 million dollars?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 23, 2009 4:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Here:

/list

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 23, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cust

and….

and…..

nobody?

by VV A's fan on Oct 23, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

NONTENDER THE LLOOOZZER!!

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 23, 2009 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure...

…but I know that Jack Cust’s 2009 wouldn’t be on that list.

Cust has had a 3-year downturn in his numbers. Last year he was only 6.9 runs above average. While providing absolutely no defensive value whatsoever that means that he provides very little value to the A’s as a whole. Combine that with the raise that will likely put him over $4 million and I do not see how he is worth his contract next season (and please don’t use fangraphs to validate contract numbers).

My suggestion would be for the A’s to employ a rookie group of players to play the DH position—this saves money, gives the A’s more defensive flexibility and could give similar or better offensive production. I believe this is the same way to go in LF rather than tendering Hairston a contract as well.

Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports

by nobodyinparticular on Oct 24, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's why I said "capable of"

Cust made 2.8M last year. If his 2009 was as bad as you’re claiming it was, how do you figure he’ll get a raise to over 4M?

Then again, even if he repeats his 2009, he’s still worth 4M. He was a 1.1 WAR player last year.

So, which is it: Was he good enough last year to earn a raise that will “likely put him over $4 million” or was he bad to the point that he would be lucky to even get offered a contract? In the same sentence you’re basically saying both things.

Also, why are you saying not to use fangraphs when you’re pulling Cust’s 6.9 wRAA from fangraphs?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he's actually trying to impeach the linearity of win value

and just kind of making a hash of it. But I could be wrong.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he's saying it's perfectly possible Cust will be

a little worse next year than he was this year, and that if so it might not be hard to find a DH whose salary and productivity, combined, are a better fit for Oakland.

The “capable of OPSing .850” is a pretty slippery standard to choose. Jonny Gomes and Ty Wiggington are capable, if generally unlikely, while Cust at age 31 may not be, we don’t really know.

You’re criticizing nobodyinparticular, but from where I sit the problem is throwing out “capable of OPSing .850” like that means something, or means what you’re really getting at, which is that Cust has been a very good hitter a lot longer than he’s been a not as good one, and that when he was hitting very well many did not sufficiently appreciate it.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was just answering mikev's final question, not the rest of his post

I agree that weasel words like “capable of doing x” probably ought to be avoided. There are probably 10 guys on the A’s who are “capable” of OPSing .850; it’s just very unlikely in the case of several of them.

Want my opinion? I think Cust will be cheaper than a bunch of guys he’s about as good as, and way cheaper than the small number of guys he’s not as good as. The DH market this offseason is full of washed-up has-beens— do we really want to go down that road again?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't, but I'm not down on Cust

My issue with Cust is that he doesn’t fit well in the 3-5 part of a lineup. Either ask him to get on base and enjoy him at #1-2, or get 2-3 guys who you really want up in key RBI situations and let Cust be a nice additional threat in the 6-7 hole.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Cust starts out hot, then batting him fifth is fine,

because he gets on base so much.

If not, boot him down to 7th.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 24, 2009 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

his career OPS via lineup spot ranking

6
5
4
3
7

The man was born to hit #6

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm cool with that,

as long as we have a high OBP guy at 5,

because the 5th guy leads off the second inning more often than the 4th or 6th.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 24, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

With the addendum that "OPS by spot in the batting order"

is an exciting trip through “Irrelevant Stat Theatre!”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup.

PL78, career OPS by lineup spot tells us almost nothing. A player doesn’t become better or worse when put in a different lineup spot.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 25, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

NOT TRUE!!!!!!!!

oh wait yes yes it is. Most situational stats tell us nothing.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

MikeV's final question.

My reading of nobodyinparticular’s post is not that he was objecting to using FanGraphs altogether, but just to using FanGraphs’ WAR dollar-equivalency figures as justification for a contract. That is, just because Cust’s calculated WAR is listed as equivalent to $4.9m of value doesn’t mean it’s worth paying him $4.9m.

Whether you agree or not, it’s not an inconsistent for n.i.p. to accept the wRAA numbers while rejecting the dollar figures.

(I happen to agree that the dollar figures are too problematic to be used to justify a contract; on the other hand, I do think Cust in 2010 is worth $4 million.)

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's inconsistent...

The figures were derived by basically the same people, using basically the same processes.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The dollar figures rely on financial information,

and our data on finances are far less reliable than our data on game results. That’s the main reason I think one might accept the one while rejecting the other.

There are other problems in applying the dollar-win values directly to contract-worthiness, some of which parallel problems with equally simplistic application of WAR. One of these is the matter of limited roster space, which I assume is what you were getting at when you mentioned “linearity of win value” (though I agree that’s not an issue in the case of Cust).

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

not sure what you mean...

the dollar figures on fangraphs are just the average salaries of FAs. Salaries seem very reliable.

I would certainly agree, though, that just because player x is set to make something at or lower than what player x (or players as good as that player) would make as a FA does not mean it’s necessarily “worth it” for the A’s, who obviously can’t come even close to affording to pay all their players what they are “worth” as FAs.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 24, 2009 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoa. Am I completely misinterpreting that?

I was under the impression that someone had calculated what a win is worth in terms of anticipated revenue to the team, and the dollar number is simply the WAR times that factor. Is that not the case?

If I’m wrong about that, then I need to rethink this entirely.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

basically what it is is total salary paid to all FAs in a given year divided by total WAR produced by those players.

One thing to keep in mind, which people often don’t, is that for guys with long term FA contracts, matching how much they are paid in a given year with how much they are “worth” in that metric is not necessarily a useful exercise, because most of those guys will be “worth” a good bit more than they are being paid in the first few years, and a good bit less in the final few years.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 24, 2009 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm, I stand corrected.

While you were replying, I found the explanatory article and I see what you mean.

We have had discussions here about the dollar value of a win in terms of anticipated revenue to the team (often in the context of debating whether wins in the 80-90 range are worth more than wins elsewhere). I assumed the FanGraphs WAR-dollar number was related to that, but I see now that it’s not.

I still see some issues with using the FanGraphs dollar number to judge contracts, but they are very different from the issues I thought I was seeing, so I need to back down and reconsider this.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, that is way, way, way, way wrong

The dollar value of wins is produced (basically) simply by adding up all the wins provided by free agents, then adding up how much money they were paid, then dividing the latter number by the former.

The anticipated-revenue value of a win varies wildly by market. For the A’s, it’s probably not more than about $1.5M; for the Yankees, it might be $3M or more. (And that really is subject to guesswork, as you intimated.) It also varies wildly by how likely that win is to push you into the playoffs.

The reason why FAs always get paid more than the “anticipated-revenue value of wins” is that they are subsidized by pre-FA players, who are uniformly paid less than they are worth.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

one reason not to be happy with 4.9M

It’s calculated using the going free agent rate, but we all know well that the A’s don’t have a large enough salary to compete if all their players are payed according to going free agent rates. So if Cust is making similar money to that fangraphs figure, then maybe the A’s can’t really afford him.

Personally, I think Oakland should keep him around for next year, but I’m bullish on him putting up a better line than 2009, plus there really aren’t a lot of other good options.

by colin on Oct 25, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My take on this

is that because it’s very difficult to actually outperform the “going free agent rate” in signing players, any A’s team which is competitive is going to have to be so by way of pre-free agency players anyway. But surely that doesn’t mean the team should never pay ANYONE any money.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you

but, just to take a devil’s advocate position, you could view this a little bit like the big WAR concentration debate.

The A’s have a (somewhat) fixed payroll. To make the playoffs, they need to assemble X wins above replacement (where X is something like 30-35, I think?). So is it better to have a bunch of guys that you pay slightly below market rate, or to have some people payed like free agents and then a few huge bargains.

Actually, in the process of typing that out, I have convinced myself that this isn’t a good position to argue. Pre-arbitration players are basically always going to be huge bargains, so it’s not really that hard to find players who cost way less than typical free agent salary. In fact, you could focus on those players exclusively — and then you are the 2008 Marlins.

by colin on Oct 25, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

these people who are seeing "the downturn in Cust"

Did they look at his 09 half slash lines?

1st half: .232/.322/.411 82G 39BB 92K
2nd half: .250/.399/.426 67G 54BB 93K

Overall his numbers were down because of his strangely redefined first half role, where he was apparently told to swing more, to cut down on his K’s and hit more singles, which he did. And he stunk. He tried and succeeded to correct the problems he had in the 1st half and now youre saying he needs to be nontendered because he did what was asked of him then and it was simply a poor team strategy. Cust is very good at taking walks and hitting home runs. Ask him to not do those things and he is worthless.

Of all the players in MLB, Cust deserves a do-over of 09 more than anyone.

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am lost

When did The american league allow 2 LF?

by OakTownBound11 on Oct 23, 2009 6:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You can put the players where you want, I guess

like, if you’re really sure no-one’s going to hit it to RF

by bobnothing on Oct 23, 2009 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There was that game a few years back (if I remember right)

where the A’s needed one run against the Angels to clinch the division. Bases loaded, one out. Scioscia put five men in the infield as an “extra-double play defense”. Of course, Scutaro hit a fly ball right where the center fielder would have been to win it.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 23, 2009 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it was after they banned the dude on the horse.

"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs

by Aufheben on Oct 23, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They banned the dude on the horse???

I need to start paying closer attention.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 23, 2009 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Turns out the original game rules, as envisioned by Elvis, called

for a designated “whore’s man,” which was misunderstood by later generations. But its okay, we get two LFs to make up for it.

"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs

by Aufheben on Oct 23, 2009 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember "whore's man"

Lefty reliever, right?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 23, 2009 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, and a lot better one than his protege,

Pimpy Guy.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 24, 2009 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

1. We have a surplus of relievers in Andrew Bailey, Joey Devine, Brad Zeigler, Michael Wuertz, Edgar Gonzalez, Sam Demel, Henry Rodriguez etc… Did i miss someone? I think the A’s would be well suited to trade Wuertz for a hitter or possibly some young talent. Do we really need 8 relievers?

No we dont “need” 8 relievers, in fact the 25 man roster all but prohibits it. But here’s who I got as out 2010 relief corp: Bailey, Devine, Weurtz, Zeigler, Breslow, Kilby, Meloan.

Demel and H-Rod need more time at AAA, if they start destroying there then yeah promote them, but why would be trading our depth at our strongest area be a good thing?

2. Non tender Jack Cust and sign a short term replacement that will cost the same and not be so strikeout prone.

Would all these, pardon my language, idiots who hate strikeouts so much explain to me how their team of double play machines who dont eat into a pitchers count are going to win games? Player A got on base 31.3% of the time and made 2 outs 14 times. Player B got on base 35.6% of the time and made 2 outs 7 times. A is Suzuki B is Cust. Cust is a better hitter than Suzuki. Now if youre saying youd rather have Jim Thome or Manny Ramirez or a player who’s a pro-DH and better hitter than Cust, then fine.

3. Sign a veteran starting pitcher to supplement the young pitching. If the A’s are even going to think about winning 85-90 games in 2010 they are going to go after a solid veteran to fill the 2,3 or 4 spot.

The 2008 Devil Rays won 97 games and their oldest SP was 26. Fuck veterans wasting a true young talents spot.

4. Add another bat be it at first base or in the outfield. The A’s are about 27 million under budget and can afford to get a nice veteran slugger at between 7 and 10 million per season. The options may be limited though.

Thats true, and they have at least 5 options at 1B who are either Barton, or near-mlb ready talent (Carter, Dolittle, Wallace, Donaldson etc). If you hate Barton then yes, a cheap 1 year option such as Nick Johnson makes sense. It stinks many A’s fans arent willing to give Hairston a fair chance. He got hurt immediately when he arrived here and wasnt at his best. Davis and Sweeney are our CF+RF, no question. If you feel like making a run at Bay is worth it, then fine I agree.

5. Re-sign Adam Kennedy. He did great things for the A’s in 2009 and re-established himself as a good platoon or bench player. Could fill in at 2nd and 3rd and start between 80 and 100 games if need be. Also wouldn’t cost more then 3 million on a one year deal.

No. He had an outlier year and wont ever be as good as he was in 09. Cut him loose while you can. Id rather sign Akinori Iwamura to play 3B and backup 2B in case anything happens to Ellis.

6. Call up Brad Kilby and Sam Demel from AAA and have them start the season in the pen. This is another reason why the A’s can afford to sell high on Michael Wuertz.

Why not trade Demel?

Trade Michael Wuertz to a team like the Dodgers, Yankees, Tigers or Phillies and bring in some more young talent. I see no reason why a major league caliber hitter couldn’t be had for him

He’s only a reliever, sure there are dumb teams, sorry that dumb team THE ROYALS love to throw dumb money at RPs, so maybe we can trade him, but honestly, why bother? Id rather have a $2MM RP who is lights out on the regular.

Sign Nick Johnson to a 1Y-5MD contract or even go as high as a 2Y-9MD deal. Johnson has been injury prone and I could see him taking a short term contract on a team where he will be an everyday starter and be able to earn a larger pay day down the road.

Johnson’s a name Im sure the A’s will look at. It all depends on how they feel about Barton.

Sign Doug Davis or Jason Marquis to a 2Y-11MD contract or something along those lines. Offer a one year contract if at all possible

With our embarrassment of riches in the SP area, signing a FA to a multi-year deal isnt too smart unless its Chapman. I dont think taking a flier on Randy Johnson on a 1 year deal isnt too bad a thing though, he can always be a long reliever.

Sign OF- Jermaine Dye to a 1Y-10MD or 2Y-18MD contract. The A’s can afford this and if i am not mistaken this signing wouldn’t cost them a draft pick. If it would then go after another type B free agent.

Dye wont put up his White Sox numbers here man, youre honestly looking at maybe 18 HR, 75 RBI and a .260 BA with a .320 OBP. Sweeney’s defense is better than Dye’s and he wil get on base more.

by PL78 on Oct 23, 2009 7:12 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

rec'd!!!!

"What a joke." ~ Booby Crosby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 24, 2009 6:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My devil's advocate replies to each --

Wuertz – won’t fetch a good hitter unless packaged with someone more “ouch” to lose than Wuertz

Cust – The A’s are a year away from having someone better (Carter, potentially). Right now, non-tendering Cust just does the one thing this team shouldn’t do and that is make its offense worse.

Veteran Pitcher – The veteran pitchers available in this off-season tend to fall into one of three categories: Either they are old and as likely as not to suck (Smoltz, Penny), they are just not good enough to constitute a “sure” upgrade from the young pitchers we already have (D. Davis, Wolf, Marquis), or they will require a bigger investment of $$ / years than a small market team should, as a rule, pay for a starting pitcher (Lackey, Hudson).

Nick Johnson – What has frustrated us to no end the past few years? Guys who could have helped a lot had they only been healthy (Chavez, Harden, Duke). You can bank on Nick Johnson finally being healthy for the first time in his career, but…wanna?

Adam Kennedy – If Adam Kennedy is your starting 3Bman, you know you’re not contending for anything.

Kilby and Demel – Wheeeee.

That being said, I’d take a flier on Nick Johnson if the price were right. I’d also bring Duke back, but then again I’m not known for being especially rational on this front.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 23, 2009 7:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Disagree on #2 and #5.

As for #4, that’s a good idea, but I’m wondering who is available that the A’s could afford. I’d look for a medium-priced slugger coming off of a down year. Hey, I heard that Jack Cust will be non-tendered. Maybe we could sign him.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 23, 2009 9:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Wuertz should not be traded

The guy is a K machine and can come in and K a couple with the bases loaded which is very valuable IMO. That slider is lethal and as long as he’s not overused, he is obviously a great asset to our very good BP. Why the hell would anyone want to weaken the one thing that is lights out.

by Trainman on Oct 23, 2009 9:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

... because it's not that important and easily replaceable?

The A’s got Wuertz for two organizational players. I mean, this stuff just isn’t that difficult.

I disagree with most of the OP, but the A’s absolutely need to work on turning bullpen pitchers into assets on other parts of the diamond. You don’t need five closers— half of them just end up working unimportant innings.

And while it might be psychologically satisfying, from a winning standpoint, having a “lights out” bullpen is frankly unimportant. Half of this year’s playoff teams had below-average FIP out of their bullpen. Meanwhile the A’s had the best in the game— by a pretty huge margin— and won 75 games.

Couldn’t something be put together with Tampa? They have a terrible bullpen and 2342749027 infielders.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 23, 2009 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who though?

Willy Aybar?

I mean, call me crazy, but BEN FUCKING ZOBRIST is not really a .950 OPS second baseman, and Jason Bartlett is not really an .880 OPS shortstop.

Hey, I’d be all about trading Weurtz for Longoria, but I don’t think Friedman would pull the trigger :D

Brignac maybe? He’s still only 23, there’s gotta be some upside left there.

Why not just throw some money at Iwamura?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Any of Aybar, Brignac, Iwamura and Sean Rodriguez ought to be available at the right price

Teams do not need four backup infielders.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aybar, Brignac and S-Rod

are going to cost a LOT more than Weurtz, unless we can somehow get Dayton Moore hired by TB.

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, but it's a framework for discussions

I assume Josh Donaldson is headed their way in any trade. In turn, that means they need to send back something better than just a backup an infielder. Wuertz/Donaldson for Brignac/McGee?

I might nose around DRays Bay and see what people over there think about this situation.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

nice trade

brignac or s-rod+mcgee is a sound move for both clubs

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Considering that the A's turned down Weurtz for Rodriguez plus at the deadline

I don’t think they agree with your assessment of Weurtz’s value

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 24, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Was that ever confirmed?

I’m not sure it was.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but it makes sense to accept less when the player you're giving up won't be facing you 19 times a season

When you trade with a division rival, you really want to WIN the trade. When it’s out of division, it doesn’t matter so much if they end up with more value as long as both sides improve.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The A's have Bailey, Devine, Ziegler, Kilby, Breslow with Demel and possibly Rodriguez and Carignan coming through.

We would be dealing from a massive strength. I agree we shouldn’t give him away but if he could get someone like Brandon Wood then you have to do it.

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

People keep saying this

and yet, the first thing that comes to mind is “DO NOT HELP THE SLEGNA IMPROVE”

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a two way street

They would also be helping us improve. If Wood hits as his minor league track record they would be helping us improve much more than we are helping them. Especially if Wood can still play a competent shortstop.

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

*..as his minor league track record suggests….

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If that was the case

Wouldn’t they just put him at third base next year after Figgins walks, and not trade him for a reliever?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would certainly be the smart thing to do.

But it sounds like they may try to resign Figgins. If they do so then it probably means they have undervalue him due to his poor performance in sporadic playing time in the majors.

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

TOO MANY STRICKOUTS

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol - strickouts are alot like swine flu - not nice, but not really much worse than any other type of flu

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For the win!!!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We dont trade within the division, do we?

When was the last time we traded with LAA? Randy Velarde in 1999? Beane doesnt seem to want to take that risk.

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not Beane.

Stoneman rarely traded with anyone, and never with Beane. The Velarde trade was with Bavasi, in his last year with the Angels. After Bavasi went to the Mariners he made a point of never trading with Beane. The reason the A’s didn’t “trade within the division” is because since the turn of the century neither the Angels nor the Mariners would trade with him. The A’s did continue to make occasional trades with Texas throughout this period. (eg, Duchscherer, Peña).

Stoneman and Bavasi are both gone now. So far there have been no trades with the Angels under Reagins, but not long after Zduriencik took over for the Mariners there has already been a trade (Hannahan). I believe — and this part is purely my own speculation — that a significant part of the motivation for the Hannahan trade was to establish a relationship that could lead to more important trades with Zduriencik in the future.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hm

Not clear that trade exactly got things off on the right foot… the A’s seem to have gotten a lemon.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My take on that trade is that

most GMs are willing to give a guy up in order to let him play in the majors as a sort of favor without expecting that it is necessarily a fair deal. The first Hannahan deal probably falls into that category too.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 24, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, that deal actually made sense for both sides

The guy they traded for Hannahan (Jason Perry) was in the same situation (approaching minor league free agency, had put up a nice season in AAA after stagnating for several years in the mid-minors) and just happened to be an outfielder rather than a 3B. The Tigers needed outfielders more than 3B and the A’s were the opposite, so they swapped the two of them.

As it happens, Hannahan kinda worked out and Perry didn’t, but it was a logical move for the Tigers at the time of.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

I’m pretty sure you could find FAT better than Jason Perry. Like you think a lot of teams are looking to give Danny Putnam a shot right now?

As a side note, I’m pretty sure you could make a decent argument Justin Souza is a better prospect than Jason Perry.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 24, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

AK might be a less controversial example

We got him basically for free b/c we had a ML slot.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 24, 2009 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

and Cust

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 24, 2009 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jack Hannahan was FAT too

Like I said, both of them would have become free agents if they weren’t added to their team’s 40-man roster. Since neither one was going to be, there was no disincentive to trading them.

Souza’s clearly a better prospect than Perry, but Hannahan 2009 is a better player than Hannahan 2007 was, too.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does his defense rate out that well?

Because, at the risk of pointing out the obvious, he hasn’t hit worth a crap since 2007. The official line is .216/.302/.336 in 802 PA’s. He’s as proven suck as there is. I have a very hard time believing his defense can make up for that special brand of terrible.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 25, 2009 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well yes

he has been +12.5 FRAA or more in 6 of the last 8 years. Even with his crappy year with the bat this year and his injuries which ate into his playing time he was still above league average this year and hasn’t been worth less than 2.3 WAR since they started keeping track of the statistic as well as being 4 WAR (all star level) four times in the last 8 years. So yeah I would say hes pretty fucking good.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't follow

Does that four out of eight number include minor league translations or something?

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 25, 2009 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh shit i thought you were talking about beltre... my bad.

as for Hannahan yes his fielding is as good as his hitting is bad when you factor in the positional adjustment. Hes a career +15 FRAA player at 3b.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah no

I’m a big Beltre fan. Just wasn’t sure how well Hannahan rated out defensively.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 26, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that matters, though.

My read on the trade is that Zduriencik wanted Hannahan (who was a good fit for his short-term needs), and Beane had already decided to start playing the younger guys more, making Hannahan expendable. Giving Hannahan to Seattle obviously made sense, the only question was what Oakland would get back in return.

Instead of pushing hard for a better deal, I think, Beane was willing to let go of Hannahan for a weaker package, in the interest of establishing a relationship that could lead to more trades in the future. I assume that Z knows he got a favor, but even if he doesn’t, so what? Worst case, Z now thinks he can take advantage of Billy so he’ll come back and try for more. That’s not a bad thing.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I very much doubt Z thinks he can take advantage of Billy.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let me make it clear

When I say the A’s got a lemon, I mean that I think Beane wanted and liked Justin Souza (who was having a pretty good season at the time) and thought he was getting value in return for Hannahan.

Souza then broke basically as soon as he got to the A’s, which has to raise the question of whether Seattle knew something was wrong with him at the time they dealt him that they didn’t tell Beane. It doesn’t prove the point at all, of course— neither team may have known, or they may have told the A’s and Beane went ahead with the risk anyway— but unless Beane “assumed the risk” after being told about it, the situation might create suspicions of dealing in bad faith.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, I see.

I wasn’t aware of the injury. Whatever the situation, I hope they work it out and there’s no hard feelings either way.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

one of the worst moves in beanes tenure imo

from a boy that was fucking dumb at the time prospective.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 24, 2009 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How can it be a worst move when it's so minor?

Even if he gave away Hannahan for absolutely nothing, it would be no big deal. There is always more to consider than just getting back more value than you gave up. When the stakes are small, those externalities are of greater relative importance.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because Hannahan was a fair bet to be a league averagish player

because of his glove and we had absolutely nothing at the time (this was pre Wallace and when Cardenas had struggled mightily at AAA) that would even fake being a competent 3baseman under contract for 2010. Basically it would be the equivalent of trading cliff Pennington right now as it forces the A’s to acquire someone. Souza was ok but the internal replacement level at 3b was so horrific unless there was a drastic overpay it would be hard for another team to have as big of a gaping hole as we do.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't agree with this unless Beane actually knew of Souza's citrus-hood

Any shot at dealing a backup for a starter in a noncontending season is one that has to be taken, I think.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No move that resulted in the loss of Hannahan was that bad

Especially compared to losing Gonzalez or Ethier.

by MrIncognito on Oct 25, 2009 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I think Hannahan tends to get overrated here

like Cust gets underrated. It goes,

“Hannahan sucks!”

“No he DOESN’T, because of his defense — he’s actually (exaggeratedly) good.”

Because Hannahan was better than a lot of people thought, he was built up to be better than he actually was by the rest.

The reality: Nice fill-in job by a guy you don’t want starting at 3B every day if you’re actually trying to win. Kind of like Adam Kennedy.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really like Jack Hannahan

but it’s largely projection on my part; I was sad to see him go because I liked to watch him play.

I really don’t think the A’s are going to miss his production going forward.

Or rather, if they do, then something has gone horribly wrong

by bobnothing on Oct 25, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look there were other bad trades that I didn't like

I mean I have a box of Josh Donaldson is my homeboy tshirts in my basement but I would have held on to Harden till the deadline at least or even the offseason. (Nico says that the A’s had worse injury information than was available to you and me but I hated the EPat/Murton component.)

I didn’t like Hudson deal because I though there was better available and thought Chucky T was a lousy second piece and was worried that even if Cruz got his act together he would get expensive quickly as he was arby eligible.

I didn’t like the Holliday deal because of Gonzalez and I didn’t think that we were going to contend, though I was wrong about Beane selling Street before he collapsed.

Most of those moves were justifiable at the time. When I read the Hannahan deal I was in LA with a friend at the Angles Yankees game and was like WTF are you doing Beane. Also it might have prevented us from trading AK for something since he then had to play 3b

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bring back Gaudin!

Sign Orlando Hudson…

"What a joke." ~ Booby Crosby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 24, 2009 6:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Where is Josh Outman????

"What a joke." ~ Booby Crosby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 24, 2009 6:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

TJ surgery...

won’t be back until at least the ASB next season

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Oct 24, 2009 7:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You lost me after non-tender Cust

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 7:50 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Some nuggets of truth here

The A’s should definitely sign a veteran starter, and they should definitely trade Wuertz if we can get something good for him—he’s never going to have a better year than the one he just had.

Regarding Cust, replacing him is the most logical way to upgrade our offense. He’s on the wrong side of 30, he’s declining, and he’s no longer super cheap. His replacement also shouldn’t block anyone of the young position players. Obviously, it won’t be the end of the world if we keep him either, as he’s still one of the best hitters on the team. That sentence is why our offense is so terrible, though. He should not be one of the best hitters in a real offense.

Other than perhaps signing a 3B, signing a DH is probably the best thing the A’s can do to upgrade the offense. There is more than enough money to target Bay or Guerrero as DH-only upgrades, and they’re both better than Cust in the OF if/when they’re pressed into service due to injuries.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 9:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure Vlad is better than Cust in the OF.

Based on the fact that he can barely walk.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe so.

It’s hard to be worse than Cust in the OF, though. A close examination of Vlad’s injury issues would certainly be a prerequisite for his acquisition.

I just think replacing Cust is, potentially, a logical way to upgrade the offense, make it more right-handed, and to use the surplus funds the A’s have.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vlad has the look of a classic A's signing

In a Jason Giambi kind of way.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Might be.

I could see how his decline could be steep and fast. I could also see him having a couple of Vlad-like years left.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My guess is that he has some Vlad-like stretches left,

but not entire seasons. I think he’ll be the 2007-09 Kotsay of DHs.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, but...

Vlad, 2009: 0.8 WAR
Cust, 2009: 1.1 WAR

They both had down years, but Vlad’s down year is because his body is breaking down.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And he'll have an entire offseason to recover.

It’s not an idea that should just be dismissed out of hand.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about the fact that Vlad played 16 innings in the field all season?

Even Dr. Nick Riviera could figure this one out. As a fielder, the guy is beyond done.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd consult with him, but I don't have the "$29.99!" for the appointment

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The B is for Bargain!

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't mean he's a worse outfielder than Cust.

It means the Angels deployed him significantly more intelligently that the A’s did Cust.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He. Cannot. Play. The. Field. At. All.

How many links do you need?

I’m sure I could come up with more if that’s not enough. There’s a difference between “probably shouldn’t play the field much” and “will actually fall over dead if you put him in the field.”

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fine.

He can’t play the field. That has very minor bearing on my opinion that the A’s should investigate options to upgrade Cust. Spare me the condescension and passive aggressive insults, thanks.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the playoffs are on, you should watch them

and see for yourself that Vlad looks like a 63 year old man who just got shot in the leg, trying to run. he’s pretty much done as a ballplayer imo, his bat speed is dead too.

Jim Thome is a better option than Cust, but he might cost more. And the potential for Cust to outproduce Thome in 2010 is very high.

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Had no batspeed issues with that game-tying homer, did he?

People seem to think I’m looking at Cust in terms of absolutes—like, the A’s have to get rid of Cust next year. They don’t. They’d be foolish not to consider it, though.

One thing the A’s have in abundance this offseason is money. If that money can yield better production at DH, it should, just like it should at any other position on the field.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

a 1 AB sample scale

yeah man im saying vlads batspeed is so bad he will never hit a HR again.

hey if youre into replacing a guy who has FAR greater chance of throwing up a 900 OPS with 2010’s Ken Griffey Jr, by all means plead your case. Its insane and Beane will never ever do it, but feel free.

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, while Vlad has looked pretty horrific to me,

it’s worth noting that nonetheless he has still hit in every single game (8) including a key HR, an RBI double — I mean he really does look like death warmed over, but you have to hand it to Vlad that he can do what he’s doing when he stinks.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

In past years he looked like a Hall of Famer.

Now he looks like a washed-up Hall of Famer.

Fair?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

[x] agree

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair (except Phil Cuzzi says "foul")

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The money can only upgrade one or two positions

DH is not a priority.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 24, 2009 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

in all fairness, he is right.

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Oct 24, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Replace the guy who has been our best hitter two out of the last three years and has an OPS+ of 128 over that span is the most logical way to upgrade our offense? Ooookay. Not what I would define as logical...

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was about to say the same thing

Third base and shortstop are the two gaping, glaring holes in the lineup right now (sorry, Cliff Pennington, you’re going to need more than 50 good games to convince me that you can actually hit). After that I’d say outfield. DH comes in near the bottom of the list.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Spot on IMO about Pennington...

PT: What do you reasonably expect from Scott Hairston next season?

"What a joke." ~ Booby Crosby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 24, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Probably somewhere between 120 and 130 games played and 2-2.5 WAR

He should be slightly above league-average when the A’s play him. He’s a heavy flyball hitter, so if the A’s keep him away from heavy-flyball inducing righthanders, that should do the trick.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

thank you

"What a joke." ~ Booby Crosby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 24, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We can always re-sign Booby Croz

to play A’s quality SS

"What a joke." ~ Booby Crosby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 24, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're only considering what we have, not what's available.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you see Billy signing anybody at all?

I could see him not signing a single player except maybe a utility IF.

I think he would just go with what he has with what he has, even though there is more that is available.

My statement is made purely on speculation and most likely will be wrong. Just going on a hunch! :)

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 25, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's exactly what I'm thinking

We may be restless but this has the look to me of a very quiet A’s off-season.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Surely they have to sign someone to play third base

It would be insane (and I mean clinically, not in the cutesy-let’s-use-this-supposed-Albert-Einstein-quote-that-itself-makes-no-sense-whatsoever way) to expect Eric Chavez to be healthy enough to play the position. Brett Wallace isn’t ready for the majors and barely counts as a third baseman to begin with. I mean, who are you starting on opening day, Jeff Baisley? Gregorio Petit?

If there’s one good thing about the Hannahan trade, at least it removed any excuse for the A’s not dealing with the sucking maw of suckhood that is the third base position.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They could sign Kennedy (note-I'm not advocating for this).

But I sincerely doubt they’re going to make a multi-year commitment to a 3B when they still believe Brett Wallace can play there.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't either, but I also find their comments w/r/t Brett Wallace's defense

to be insanely optimistic. If you actually believe that he’s going to be a decent-to-average third baseman, then holding a spot for him makes sense (though it might still be OK to sign a 3B like DeRosa who you could move to another open position like 2B in 2011).

It’s logical within a paradigm, but that paradigm is one to which I am not a subscriber.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Depending on what the market will bear,

I could see the A’s making a play for Figgins, knowing that when Wallace or Cardenas is ready to play 3B Figgins still has value as a “jack of all trades.”

Likely, a team will offer Figgins far more than the A’s should. But last year’s FA market was funky enough that I imagine the A’s will at least have conversations to see if he falls through the cracks.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

DO NOT WANT.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's funny that you say that,

because the A’s have this cavernous hole at 3B, and until his age catches up to him Figgins will be a lot better than almost all the alternative solutions.

If he isn’t offered the contract he wants, and has to settle for less money and fewer years than he initially seeks, seems like a good target to me.

Personally, I don’t think Beane targets players so much as he targets opportunities. (Then he signs Giambi and Nomar and not Abreu or Branyan.)

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is no way that his market value suffers some random collapse so that it is below his real value

I would much rather have Beltre for the money that they will both command.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with both sides

Figgins makes sense if you can get him for less than I expect. However, I (obviously) expect him to get what I expect, which is probably at least 3/30 and maybe more than that. He’s a better version of Juan Pierre and Pierre was massively overpaid; the only way I don’t see that happening again is if the economic bottom lines are so bad that 3/4 of the teams just can’t afford him at all.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

right but my thing is if thats the case beltre will be hugely underpaid as well

and I would rather take the shorter deal.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

In general, I agree with this

Keep in mind, however, that the team that is most likely to lay out for him is his current club, Seattle, a team that now a. correctly values defense, and b. also lacks any great alternative options at third base, and c. has a ton of payroll freed up at this point (especially now that they lucked out with Kenji Johjima leaving $16M on the table to go back to Japan).

So I’m not sure it’s true in this particular instance.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is true

but if Figgins is so cheap and they have the money then why wouldn’t Seattle sign Figgins, especially since he has been an excellent defender the last two years? Its not like they have any 3b prospects in the chute (Tuiassasopo sp? not withstanding) have a higher payroll less of an incentive to worry about a long term deal.

Plus its not like Beltre is popular in the PNW.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's just often someone who is strangely underpaid

Sometimes it’s because they’re better than anyone expected (Branyan, Abreu) and sometimes it’s because everyone focused on someone else.

PT sums my point up well: If Figgins commands what I expect, the A’s should pass. But if he falls through the cracks while teams are more focused on Beltre and others, then he’s among the FAs who could actually help the A’s — largely because of the position he plays.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 9:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the opposite is more likely.

Beltre had his “premier free agent” contract. Figgins hasn’t yet, AND he’s been a solid player for Thousand Oaks. Beltre has, at least to stupid people, underperformed and won’t be “worth” another big contract.

If anybody slips through the cracks while another guy is being focused on, I think it’s Beltre.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

BINGO

Now come and get your prize.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

OMG WHAT DO I WIN?!?!?!

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A no expenses paid trip to my mom's basement

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sweet.

Um, you’re not gonna be there, right?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 26, 2009 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

dude all i do is work now

If you want to see me you have to come to fairfield and be a public employee.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 26, 2009 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll pass.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 26, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Smart man

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 27, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could be, mikev,

in which case the A’s should go after Beltre. Like I said, I think Beane targets “opportunities” more than he targets “this player or that player.”

Case in point: He thought he could get Furcal, coming off injury, for less than 40mil. When he saw he was wrong, he backed away and turned his attention elsewhere (not that it would have mattered; Furcal wasn’t coming anyway).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Players are the opportunities so im not sure what youre talking about

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I mean that fans tend to focus on

“It would be great to have __” while Beane is focused on who is available with the most value relative to cost.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

NOMAH!!!!!!!!

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never said Billy did it well.

{Sometimes he does, but 2009 was not that year.}

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Holy crap, I missed that news.

The Mariners got out of two years of grossly overpaid Kenji Johjima?!?

Either Z is a mad genius or he’s incredibly lucky.

Did some fool team in Japan offer to pay just as much, or did Kenji just decide to walk away from millions of dollars because he misses Japan?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 25, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kenji walked away

Mostly because they refused to play him. Johjima sucks but hes still better than Rob Johnson if you have both under contract.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Z gave Rob Johnson all those starts

knowing it would make Johjima decide to opt out of the rest of his contract, then Z truly is an evil genius!

Any thoughts on Adam Moore? Could he be MLB caliber? I wasn’t impressed by what little I saw, but I know nothing about him.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 25, 2009 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hit pretty well in the minors, IIRC

I assume they’ll give him a shot and then turn to free agency next offseason if he doesn’t pan out.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 26, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I think hes got the potential to be one of the best GMs in the game

I didn’t like the Wilson acquisition, but did like the Snell part of the deal and love all of the offseason moves but bringing griffey back.

Moore has the chance to be a pretty good back stop but probably needs more AAA seasoning.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 26, 2009 9:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's giving him way too much credit

to suggest that he had anything directly to do with Johjima leaving. Most players do not opt out of contracts which promise to pay them tons of money even if it means being a backup (see: Matthews, Gary).

I might add that it’s not altogether clear whether the Mariners are helped by Johjima’s departure. There’s some speculation that the move was basically engineered from above the GM’s office and that the money to pay the extension was essentially out of Nintendo’s corporate pocket. It may not be available— although I suppose it might yet, if they opt to bring in another Japanese free agent.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 26, 2009 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't really mean to suggest

that Z directly engineered it. I meant it only in a jocular “Jedi mind trick” sort of way.

You’re absolutely right to look at the above-the-GM level with regard to payroll. I don’t know anything about the Johjima deal, but Mariners finances can never be viewed in a vacuum. They are but a single department in a larger corporate whole.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 27, 2009 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Griffey was an effective

publicity move.

I don’t know how it translates into ticket sales and dollars, but you could tell the community at large was excited about him being with the team.

I don’t even know how to compare it to Oakland, since in Oakland you never really feel community interest in the team at all. Sure there’s the true A’s fans, but you never get the sense of the whole city being interested, which you do get with the Mariners all the time, even when they suck.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 27, 2009 12:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I get that.

I just really don’t care about anything but winning.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 27, 2009 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have to disagree with part of that

I want to take issue with your comment that “in Oakland you never really feel community interest in the team at all.” I remember in 2006 there was a lot of excitement when the A’s made it past the ALDS. There was such a mental block built up about not being able to win a post-season series that finally making it to the ALCS got everyone giddy. I remember striking up conversations with strangers in Oakland about the A’s, and it warmed my heart that people could connect across race and class to talk about “our” A’s. I will freely admit that this doesn’t happen often enough (for my liking), but I have seen it happen.

by el generico on Oct 27, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm happy to be contradicted.

I’m glad there’s some community interest in the team, even if I never felt any when I was there.

I was gone by 2006, but I was around for 2000-2003, and I encountered very little consciousness of the A’s as the home team, whereas here in Seattle consciousness of the Mariners is pervasive.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 27, 2009 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

As a former Seattle person I agree

Seattle is a twitter even with moderately successful teams. I really think there is a lot to the downtown stadium. The kingdome, as awful as it was to see a game, it was right downtown, same with Teacher-pay raise park. Its a great ad for the team.

Also inthe bay area there is always more entertainment choices. But when I worked in Oakland in 2002, the A’s were on people’s mind, but not as much as my Seattle experience.

by Future Ed on Oct 27, 2009 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think that's fair

And I certainly didn’t mean to imply Oaklanders were always abuzz for the A’s. I was out of state from 2001 to 2006, so I will bow to your knowledge of that time. I found the same to be true with the Warriors’ “I Believe” season, whenever that was (two years ago? I don’t really follow basketball), but I also felt like all of Oakland was excited by them. So maybe Oakland just likes big winners.

by el generico on Oct 29, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

and very good defense

If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.

by 9Custs on Oct 25, 2009 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not saying Wallace is going to be decent-to-average at third.

I’m saying he’s going to be given every opportunity to prove he can, and that much I wholeheartedly agree with. If it were a matter of getting a f&*(ing A third baseman, I’d live with giving up on it. I wouldn’t for Adrian Beltre, though.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Adrian Beltre will be really good next year.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And the two years after that?

If it’s a one-year or one-plus for Beltre, sign me up, regardless of the dollar figure. In fact, an Andruw Jones-style contract (high dollars, low years) might be just the thing here.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think in three years he will probably be a league average player.

I would expect something like 8.5 WAR out of him 3.5, 3, 2 out of him over the next three years 3/27 sounds like a great deal to me.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which means if Wallace pans out

he’s blocking him.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the odds of that are low.

If his bat is ready put him at DH or 1b. The odds that Barton and Carter block 1b and DH and we cant trade Beltre are super low. The odds that Wallace can handle 3b are low.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm just not sure of that yet.

Defense is entirely more teachable than offense, and Wallace is not a bad athlete.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Apparently he works hard and is determined

to make it at 3B. Don’t underestimate the value of repetition, which often comes from work ethic and resolve.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Repetition doesn't really fix poor lateral movement

especially if as you said hes been working on it for a while. Your defense peaks right around where he is right now and the steadily declines which does not bode well for him.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's where Bob Alejo comes in!

Alejo, Jenny Craig, and for some reason Roger Craig, are teaming up to create an amazing 160 pound Wallacensational 3Bman.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

thats fine and dandy

im not saying don’t try. Its like Eric Chavez. He should try to come back but im not betting on it, so I look for a good replacement.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So, we'll find out if his lateral movement is good enough to stick at third in the bigs.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just don't believe in the concept of blocking prospects anymore

If a guy is good enough, he will make your lineup. If not, what have you lost?

The only time it really becomes a problem is if you have an awful veteran and your Bochy… excuse me, I meant to say your manager refuses to bench him because he’s intimidated by him or feels sorry for him.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nomar anyone?

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something to be said for that, sure.

Wallace’s bat may well push his arrival to the bigs, though. If the A’s are really willing to move Beltre off third if he’s ready mid-season, then fine. You’ve got an expensive good-fielding backup third baseman, though.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If his bat is crazy awesome and Beltre is not sucking,

then you hide him at left field or first base or DH. Just like every other defensively challenged slugger in the history of baseball…

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the opposite.

I love Beltre, and he’s been teh awesome in Seattle, but I think he’s a prime candidate for cliff-falling.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 25, 2009 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is if you're willing to listen.

Cust is:

a) aging
b) declining
c) expensive
d) plays a position for which there is the most available talent on the free agent market this offseason

There’s no point in anything other than a one-year investment for 3B, because that position belongs to Brett Wallace until he proves he can’t play it—in Oakland. It would be nice to upgrade SS, but there are no upgrades available.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Edit

meant to say “becoming expensive.” Cust’s value to the A’s has been primarily production relative to cost. Since that is no longer his greatest asset, it’s a fine time to see if there’s a solution with equal ROI, a bigger investment, and better results.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can save you the trouble of spending half an hour at Cot's:

There isn’t.

Even in the minors.

I can’t figure out why so much emphasis is being put on this “declining” business. It’s completely ignorant of the concept of regression to the mean.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because his numbers are down for the second straight year?

I don’t hate Jack Cust, and I won’t mind at all if he’s back on the team next year. If there’s any bias regarding Cust on this site, though, it seems to be that we have to keep the lovable reject muppet that proves how awesome Billy Beane is, because he’s the lovable reject muppet that proves how awesome Billy Beane is.

We don’t know whether or not there’s a better FA option yet, because we don’t know what the market for an FA DH is just yet. All I’m asking is that the A’s look at it. A 109 OPS+ from your DH is not something that needs to be saved at all costs.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude...

I really wouldn’t go around claiming “objectivity” while accusing other people of having a bias for Cust . I mean Frank Thomas? Try to be a little less obvious.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Oct 24, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yay, argumentum ad hominem!

Good to be reminded I was right about Jack Cust not getting better, though.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You arguing that Jack Cust is declining without accounting for RTTM

makes as much as sense as me arguing that Cust is improving due to the improvement from his first half numbers to his second half numbers.

It also makes about as much sense as arguing that Rajai Davis has vastly improved to become a better baseball player, Trevor Cahill pitched pretty well this year, etc etc

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Oct 24, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm on the fench and enjoy watching the two arguments go down

on AN for us to watch…

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 25, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My assessment: Cust ___

{What did he do his last at bat?}

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The fench?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont know who to side with? (lenscrafters & jeepers)

in regards to the assessment of Cust?

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 25, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which of these four objections

could not be made with equal justification about Russell Branyan a year ago?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's easy.

D. Last year’s DH class was utterly underwhelming. There are a lot better options available at DH this year.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are a lot better options available at DH this year.

…..

This has been repeated multiple times but once more can’t hurt: There. Isn’t.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Oct 24, 2009 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps you misread my post.

You really think the FA options at DH this year aren’t better than Frank Thomas and Jose Vidro?

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which begs the questions, why does it matter?

Why bother arguing that this year’s free agent is better than last year’s? What really matters is if any of those options are better than the guy you want to replace.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Oct 24, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

True.

And there is a greater likelihood of that being the case this year, because of the funds the A’s have available to spend, the uncertainty about Cust’s future production, and the options available on the market. Again, I’m not saying the A’s must get rid of him. I’m saying they’d be foolish not to look.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you're saying that

Cust in 2010 really is as promising as Branyan in 2009, but in 2010 there are other guys available who are even better?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No.

I don’t think Cust is 2010 is as promising as Branyan in 2009, for one. I am saying that there might be guys available that are better.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boy, hindsight really is awesome, isn't it?

Russell Branyan entering this year was a 33-year-old player who had hit well in 50 games the previous year (in between substantial injury stints) and had played for four organizations between 2006-2007. Even AFTER this year, his career OPS is worse than Cust’s (in better parks) and he’s older.

J’accuse.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right.

I was focusing on how promising I find Jack Cust this year, which is to say, I don’t think he’ll do much better than he did last year. I failed to consider the Branyan part of the equation adequately.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What baffles me about Branyan is how he hit LHPs

Granted it can make a big difference to play every day (see Rajai Davis), but he pretty much went from putrid his entire career to kickass awesome in 2009.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

An object lesson in the need to heavily regress career (or worse, single-season) platoon splits toward the league-average split

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or an object lesson in reading on my part

Looking at his 2009 and career “vs LHP” stats, his 2009 wasn’t quite as good, nor his career numbers quite as bad, as I thought I recalled.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You just linked to a list of free agents from TWO years ago, as of January of that year

… no shit it was underwhelming. I bet most free agent classes are pretty crappy if you Rip Van Winkle through the first two months of the signing period.

Last year’s class included Milton Bradley, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, Raul Ibanez, Russell Branyan… it was, in fact, probably the greatest concentration of defensively inept sluggers in recent memory.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, that was the wrong list.

This is the correctone. Only two of the players you mentioned were signed to DH.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I fail to see how that is in any way relevant to anything

and… no, the correct list is this one.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I bow before your wit and your authority.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

holy irrational statements

MY EYES!!!

Cust is:

a) aging

He’s 30. 31 in 2010. Thats completely wrong and cant get much more wrong

b) declining

Subtract his 1st half and this is wrong too

c) expensive

Yeah his $14MM contract sure is expensive. Wait….

d) plays a position for which there is the most available talent on the free agent market this offseason

what? this is brimming over with irrational logic it appears you have a personal vendetta against JJ Cust the Awesome (nickname and shirt company patent pending). Now, Im a big fan of JJ and love his game to death, but I am well aware there are better hitters than he out there on the market. You claim a $3MM contract is “expensive” which is bizarre onto itself, but who else is out there?

-Matsui.
Better hitter? yep. Will he sign for under $10MM a year? Unlikely.

-Thome
Better hitter? arguably. He’s 39 in 2010 (thats “aging” btw) and made like $17MM last year, he may be able to be had for $5-8MM if the market dries up, but he’s old and cannot play the field even in an emergency, which healthy JJ can do.

-Sheffield? Stairs? Vlad? Huff? – None of these players are airtight locks to be better than JJ Cust the Great in 2010.

So yeah, until people can actually name names who will certifiably be better than JJ and as cheap as him, please keep your opinions to yourself.

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Flagged.

You have no right to tell people to keep their opinions to themselves.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you cannot support your argument with rational logic or thought

then its you who needs to be flagged, as you are merely trolling in an effort to make Cust-hate posts.

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Matsui is better (about the same) but I also don't think he'll make that much money

more than Cust though.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 24, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking the same thing

The qualities that potentially make Matsui better are kind of negated by the shape his knees are in, his age, and the related fact that if you had Cust and Matsui on the same team you’d be better off to play Cust in the OF.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good response

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with all of that except the last sentence

(and the sarcastic picture at the top).

Your rebuttal is sound, but it’s still no reason to tell Jeepers he’s not entitled to his opinion.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do love me some It's Always Sunny though.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Oct 24, 2009 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

CHASE UTLEY LOVE LETTER

that part had me dying last thursday lolololol

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

okay that wasnt that cool

but if youre going to come hard and make liek cust is the worst player out there for his price, to the point where you dont even go to COTS to check out his salary and just say “hes too expensive” then thats trolling. If he said “Matsui is the man! He’s a way better hitter than Cust and will put up better numbers than him in 2010 while costing the same amount” then fine, thats a nice argument and has a point.

The “aging” comment really offended me though, seriously. Thats why i told him to essentially “stfu”.

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

IMO, what you describe is not trolling, PL78.

Ignorance, maybe, but not trolling. The difference? Trolling is never bliss for anyone.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

a) Aren’t we all? 2010 will be Cust’s age 31 season – still within the peak years range.
b) He may be declining but he is still a better hitter than most of what we have available. Not that it means much but he had an OPS+ of 121 in the second half of 2009. A decline Cust is still better than what we have to replace him, and better than what is available on the open market at the same price.
c) Even in a down year he was worth $4.9m according to fangraphs – more than the $2.8m we paid him. Even if he gets a rise to $4m and doesn’t improve back to his norm in 2010 he would still be worth what he is paid.
d) Who is available for $4m than would produce similar to what Cust will. Now name me someone who will do it for cheaper.

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't care if they're cheaper, I care that they're better.

I’ll concede thanks to the discussion that it isn’t likely the A’s can find better ROI on a different FA investment. I still believe it’s possible they can find better production, and at an increase in cost that isn’t uncomfortable—especially given how much money the A’s have to spend this offseason.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the crux is value for money - so I will ask you - who would be better value for money at DH that would necessitate that we non tender Cust?

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just answered that.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure you did

“who would be better value for money at DH that would necessitate that we non tender Cust?”

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I did.

I said there weren’t any, and that it’s worth spending more money on it for better production, even if the ROI isn’t the same, so that better results can be obtained.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who - and how much?

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Manny Ramirez, Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu, Jim Thome,

among others.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Manny is not a free agent. You think any of the others will sign for less than $10m a year? Are the few runs extra we will get from them worth an extra $6m a year?

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Manny may or may not be a free agent.

Anyway, I have no doubt that those players (other than Manny) will sign for less than $10MM, and I’m not convinced that the difference will only be a few runs.

I’m tired of having an unpopular opinion, though. I’m now willing to stand firmly against any attempt to replace Jack Cust, because a 109 OPS+ has to be retained at all costs. I’m willing to accept that any decline in his numbers this year is entirely the fault of the evil Jim Skaalen, rather than Cust being streaky and one-dimensional. He will magically rebound to 2007 form.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You sound bitter....

Hold your argument with pride.

Columbus was right, the world IS round, but he was criticized by most.
Galileo was imprisoned for his astronomical beliefs, but alas, the Earth DOES move.

Only time can justify your assertions about Custs performance.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by BillMoresi on Oct 25, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

um seriously?

Columbus had no idea what the hell was going on. The idea that the world was round was proven long before him.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have a Mr Ptolemy on line two?

by bobnothing on Oct 25, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Columbus thought America was pear-shaped

Either he was hungry at the time, blind, or stupid. I mean, look at it on a map; it’s clearly not pear shaped. Pear stained, maybe, but not pear shaped.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh yeah, I'm not fussed about Colombus

but Ptolemy’s experiment to find the circumference of the earth is pretty amazing

by bobnothing on Oct 25, 2009 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eratosthenes is the one

who did the really awesome circumference calculation.

Ptolemy had a different calculation, but Eratosthenes’ number was closer.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 25, 2009 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They used two different methods

and while Eratosthenes’ result was more accurate, I just think that Ptolemy’s is really cool. I’m betraying a degree of personal scientific bias here, obviously

by bobnothing on Oct 26, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's really too hard on Columbus.

Columbus certainly knew where he was. He just had a significant economic incentive to pretend America was Asia, so he maintained the fiction to his dying day, but there’s little doubt he knew America was a new continent.

There’s also reason to believe he was expecting to find a new continent, though that is less certain.

You’re making it sound like Columbus was clueless and stupid, which was surely not the case.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 25, 2009 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your last sentence begs this question, though:

Why?

Cust is in-house, under team control, and very likely to outperform his salary.

What is the point in upgrading Cust when 3B, SS, and quite likely one SP spot are of much greater need, and there’s probably not a huge chance of contending in 2010 anyway.

IF nontendering Cust and throwing $10M at a guy who is a 1 or 2 win upgrade over him would put us “over the top” and into playoff contention? Fuck, sign me up.

Smart money says that’s just not true though. Not while there is literally nobody slated to start at third base on opening day right now.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The A's have $25M, easy, to spend this offseason.

The point is that there aren’t any good SS available, there aren’t any decent 3B available other than Beltre (and 3B needs to remain unblocked for Wallace), and there aren’t a lot of good FA pitchers available, either. There are plenty of DHs available, so why not see if you can’t improve production from the DH position?

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why not use it on Tim Hudson

or that Chapman dude from Cuba?

The difference between either of those guys and, say, Brett Tomko or whoever the #5 guy is slated to be is a much bigger difference than Cust and whoever is available.

There’s also the chance to keep some of that 25M and spend it on international FAs or overslot draftees.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or free agents in 2011

There’s no law saying teams have to spend every available dollar every offseason… why not save some of it for a rainy day?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe no law

But that’s almost always how budgets work.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 24, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's how budgets almost always work

in government or publicly traded corporations.

With a privately held corporation I think there is more flexibility to spend money in years where it makes sense and not spend it when it doesn’t, without getting trapped in budget politics.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We could in theory use money to take on an existing contract in a mid-year trade

just another way we dont have to spend.

Id also like to spend it on Bryce Harper if he falls that far, just to have him.

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hudson isn't going to be available

I’d be all for that, but the Braves are already in the process of signing him to a sweetheart discount deal.

Chapman is far too big of a risk for the A’s to take, in my opinion. They absolutely can’t afford a Kei Igawa, much less a Kei Igawa that costs twice as much money.

I’m fine with them spending money on other things, too. I just see no reason why improving DH production shouldn’t be one of them.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because there's no clear cut OMFG SIGN THAT DUDE RIGHT NOW upgrade.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That hasn't been established yet.

I think it’s clear that there are several players on the market who will post better numbers than Cust. What is not clear yet is how much they will costs. Thus, the door should be left open.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's been asked, and answered, several times.

There is not a clear cut upgrade that will be available.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They've had a Kei Igawa that costs three times as much money on the roster for the last two and a half seasons

Is that what’s standing between the team and the playoffs?

Whiffing on a free agent just makes your team incrementally worse. It doesn’t destroy your chances at contention unless you actually overcommit dollars-wise and then have to have a fire sale in order to balance the budget.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

But it sure might be if the A’s didn’t suck, and they’re not going to suck over the life of Chapman’s contract.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thinking about it more

What about 2007-2008 and the A’s didn’t resemble a fire sale? Which of all the players we traded over that time could have been kept without all that wasted money on the books?

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's a huge difference between a fire sale

and rebuilding.

The A’s didn’t have to trade Haren, Swisher, Blanton, etc. The team could easily have afforded to keep them around. They were in a position where they could sit back and wait for a team to show them a good offer. And sure enough, they got good value for them.

Where you get screwed is when you HAVE to move a player because you’re running out of cash and the vultures start circling. That’s the situation that leads to things like trading Ted Lilly for Bobby Kielty. The Jake Peavy trade had a taste of that going on, too, although it’s not clear to me that Peavy’s contract was actually worth anything to begin with so it might have been a case of trading zero for zero.

In any case, signing Chapman will not cause the A’s to run out of money.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Incidentally

Have you heard anything about Yu Darvish? I thought he was the next big thing coming from Japan?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

is he an assistant GM or something?

I’ve not heard of a player with that name.

by Future Ed on Oct 24, 2009 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

reply fail

supposed to be under the eric chavez comment

by Future Ed on Oct 24, 2009 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Apparently he prefers to stay in Japan for the time being

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

More like his team does

He is by far the most recognizable player in NPB and his team would be crazy to post him. They’d need a crazy posting fee for it to make financial sense for them.

I’m sure Darvish has made quotes saying he’d like to stay. But he’d be an idiot to not take the huge payday he’d get coming to the US. Darvish won’t be posted for another 3-4 years, solely because his team will make the most money that way.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 24, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really? I thought Kenny Williams got punked on the Peavy deal?

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 7:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's fair.

I don’t agree that the A’s could have afforded them—but they did move them far before their inaffordability became a matter of desperation. I also agree that signing Chapman won’t cause the A’s to run out of money. I just don’t like the level of risk associated with it.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The combined 2009 salaries of the four major trade pieces was like $23M

It’s less than that in 2010 after Harden leaves for free agency.

There is no way that anyone could possibly make an argument that the A’s couldn’t have afforded that.

Why do you not like the risk associated with Chapman? Right now the A’s are about an 80-win team talent-wise. (That might improve in future seasons, but I think it’s about accurate right now.) Risky players who might be worth 0 wins or might be worth 6 are great when you’re not quite at the level of being a contender, because they have the potential to outperform expectations. They suck when you’re ALREADY a contender and might get nothing out of them.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Injury risk, primarily.

Cuban defectees don’t have a great track record with health, save for Livan Hernandez. I wouldn’t be disappointed if the A’s land him, but it will make me nervous.

I see your point about managing the risk depending on how competitive you are, though.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

I wasn’t referring to what they would cost in 2009, I was referring to what they’d cost to resign when they hit free agency. That would obviously be beyond the A’s means, which is why they moved them far before they had to out of desperation.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's no comparable loss of leverage in that situation

A person or a company is severely financially screwed when they face a mandatory obligation that they lack the liquidity to cover (this is why things like short sales of stock are so heavily regulated). In that situation, competitors can rip you off as the price for bailing you out of your crisis situation. That can happen when you sign players to contracts that you can’t actually afford to pay for (which is to some extent the situation the A’s found themselves in in December 2003).

It does not happen when you merely have to let a player leave in free agency. There might be an opportunity cost (if the player was willing to take a big hometown discount or something) but there’s no firesale-inducing liquidity crunch.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see what you're saying.

All I’m saying is that the A’s traded those players when they did…to avoid a firesale.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, they traded those players when they did

because their surplus value (and thus trade value) would have depreciated the further they moved toward free agency, and Beane didn’t feel the team would be competitive in the meantime. There were non-zero-sum gains available to be realized by trading those players.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I completely get what you're saying

but we’ll just have to agree to disagree. If the A’s had an established pattern of keeping free agents before it all occurred, I’d be more likely to agree with you.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand this comment at all

How on earth does a team’s “pattern of keeping free agents” have anything to do with whether a particular group of players’ contracts would have bankrupted the budget?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We seem to be using different assumptions.

You’re dismissing the idea that their cost upon hitting free agency had anything to do with getting rid of them. That’s exactly what they’ve done for well over a decade. That they did it earlier in the case only means they’ve gotten smarter about it. The fact that there was chatter about trading some of those folks before they even hit arbitration only supports my point of view.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One comment whose relevance I can't figure out

gets a request for clarification… two in a row gets a “clearly this discussion is over” bemused shrug.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cookies are on the counter.

Feel free to have one.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 26, 2009 7:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Case in point re: the not destroying your team thing

We made the playoffs in 02-03 and contended in 04 while paying Jermaine Dye $30MM to be either league average or not play at all.

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

They’ve been affording Eric Chavez for some time now.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually with the posting fee Igawa will likely cost the same as Chapman

additionally there were a lot of people who had questions about Igawa’s ability to either a) pitch in the MLB successfully or b) be more than a 4/5 starter if he did make it. Chapman has top of the order ace potential.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 7:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The A’s have $25M, easy, to spend this offseason.

You cannot possibly know this. It may be true, but the assumption is just that…and not easy considering the broader economy [consumer spending] and the lowing fan-interest in Oakland’s draw area as it is.

by LowcountryJoe on Oct 24, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes yes and yes

great post

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

1-Keep Wuertz- trade Rodriguez, people like 100mph but we’re a pitchers park already- do we really need it?.
2-Keep Jack- if he’s still underperforming by the ASB, re-think it.
4-We need 2nd, 3rd, and SS- we have the OF covered mostly.
5-As much as I like Kennedy, I think he’ll be asking for a bit more. Then again he signed a minor league contract last year- see what happens- if there’s no interest in him I think he’d be great for the bench if we find a real 3rd baseman.

by brian.only on Oct 24, 2009 12:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I also think it would be a great idea to find a 'real' backup catcher -

who can actually run around the bases and plausibly play 2-4 weeks consistently if need be.
Don’t get me wrong I like Powell’s bat the guy has some serious health and durability issues.

I also have a hunch/ gut feeling Gio will be a bit more solid this year mentally- which would be huge for our SP lineup.
Just think, an improved Cahill, a Gio who doesn’t collapse, could be a good year.

by brian.only on Oct 24, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i got to number 2 then i vomited

If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.

by 9Custs on Oct 24, 2009 12:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

lol...

"What a joke." ~ Booby Crosby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 24, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your vomit strikes out too much for my liking...

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

unless we can find someone who can hit more home runs than cust...

we should not replace him. That being said, his OPS is down for the third straight year :(

If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.

by 9Custs on Oct 24, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry - I should have been clearer - I agree completely with you about Cust

I was just trying to make an amusing comment – I obviously failed miserably!

by DeJay on Oct 24, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's put this whole "there are better DHs" thing to bed

The options are as follows:

Hank Blalock: Hasn’t put up a good season since 2005. Not better than Cust.
Russell Branyan: Still a weaker bet than Cust, and likely to make more money after this season. Not relevant except if you think he can fake third base.
Carlos Delgado: Old, got paid $12M this season and played in 26 games. Probably can still hit, questionable whether he can hit better than Cust though.
Aubrey Huff: Older and worse than Cust.
Nick Johnson: Can’t speak for anyone else, but I’m not nontendering Jack Cust for a guy who averaged less than 60 games played the last three seasons. Johnson might be worth signing anyway, but in addition to Cust, not replacing him.
Adam LaRoche: More of an NL 1B than a DH. Doesn’t really have the bat required. The one advantage is that he’s relatively young and healthy. Might be worth it if Daric Barton didn’t exist, but he does.
Kevin Millar: You’ve got to be kidding me.
Jim Thome: OK, this one is interesting. Thome’s past the age at which we can expect immediate collapse… if he was going to fall apart he’d have done it already. A better bet is a steady decline. I’d figure on about a .350 wOBA from him next season, maybe .355. That’s in the Jack Cust range, but he’s likely to get paid more and can’t play the field. Will want a 2-year deal so that he can get to 600 HRs. Pass.
Troy Glaus: Old, got paid $11.25M this season and played in 14 games. Is a Type A free agent, though that may not matter (the Cardinals might fear going to arb with him).
Bobby Abreu: Already rejected a deal for 2 years and $16M.
Jason Bay: Has been discussed ad nauseam on the thread already. Will likely be massively overpaid.
Johnny Damon: Nontraditional DH, which is not in and of itself a bad thing. However, he hated the Coliseum back in the day.
Jermaine Dye: Worse outfielder than Cust and probably a worse hitter at this point in his career too. Old.
Brian Giles, Ken Griffey, Cliff Floyd: The large forks sticking out of these players’ spines are a problem.
Vladimir Guerrero: Old, got paid $15M this season and played in 100 games. Is a Type A free agent, and one whose pick will go to the Angels, to boot. Cannot play the field anymore. Bat seems to have slowed, reducing him to an all-or-nothing hacker.
Hideki Matsui: Old, got paid $13M this season. Did not play an inning in the field this season. Even so, he might be the best of this bad lot. Probably projects as a slightly better hitter than Cust, but with much greater injury risk and probably will be paid more.
Gary Sheffield: Still a decent hitter, but severely injury-prone and dismal in the field.

The only guy on this list that I am even semi-interested in is Nick Johnson. And I’m not non-tendering Cust if I’m signing him— he needs an insurance policy in the worst way.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 3:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I almost wouldn't mind taking a super duper cheap flier on Sheffield

But I think he’s probably done, and if not he’ll cost more than he’s worth.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of that list, I'd probably have the most intrigue for:

Delgado (could be a “Frank Thomas 2006” type catch);

Glaus (as a pure DH who, conveniently, gives you a backup 3Bman if Chavez/Wallace produce a total of zero players);

Nick Johnson (who could possibly stay healthy as a DH and is actually a pretty phenomenal hitter).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looking back over the list one more time, I think this is the correct assessment

Delgado has never had a truly BAD season, which is a definite point in his favor (although he was horrible for the first half of 2008). He’s not the hitter he once was, but he might be the safest bet to put up an .800 OPS.

Glaus and Branyan have the ability to “play” 3B, which puts them slightly outside the range of true LF/1B/DH types.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of those names

I’m interested in Glaus as a 3b and backup 1b/DH, Giles on a minor league deal or 1-2 mil major league deal, and Thome/Vlad if they’re cheap. If the market is as deflated this year as it was last year, I would not be surprised if Thome is looking at 4-5 million for 1 year. Vlad won’t be offered arb. He would accept it immediately.

Cust and other TTO players are often high risk of quick collapses. Remember Sexson a couple years ago? He was around Cust’s age. And his peak was way higher than Cust’s.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 24, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think people severely overestimate the risk of players accepting arbitration

It’s not a good situation to be in (on a one-year non-guaranteed deal). And it’s a blow to the pride as well.

There’s been exactly one non-relief-pitcher who’s taken arbitration in the last two seasons. Many players, who would obviously have benefitted from taking it in hindsight, opted not to for whatever reason.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Partly because teams are scared of offering arb

Adam Dunn wasn’t offered arb and he was a better player going into 2009 than Vlad will be after it. Vlad would get at least 80% of 15 million or 12 million through arbitration. I don’t see him getting an offer of 12 million a year on the open market.

He basically faces the same situation the A’s had with Jermaine Dye after 2004. The A’s would have liked to keep him, but they could offer nothing less than about 10 million. The CBA has changed since then allowing teams to decline arb yet still negotiate in the offseason.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 24, 2009 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's a whole lot of assumptions in that list.

There’s no reason to assume that:

-Thome will require a two year deal (rather than one and an option)
—Abreu will actually get a deal equal to or better than the one he rejected
—Bay will be massively overpaid (although of all the assumptions, that’s the most likely bit to pan out)
—Damon blames the Coliseum more for his year here than his nasty divorce
—Jermaine Dye as “worse in the OF than Cust” is hyperbole-they both suck equally—although neither would be playing OF anyway, so it doesn’t matter; he’s been up and down the last four years with the bat, so it’s not clear whether or not he’s done, or just had a bad year.
—Guerrero isn’t necessarily going to be offered arbitration, can’t play the field anymore, but Cust couldn’t play it in the first place; again, irrelevant
—Matsui may be paid more, but better costs more money. Recent injuries aside (one of which was acute and could have happened to anyone), he was also one of the most durable players in professional baseball history before those injuries

I’m still interested in Abreu, Matsui, Thome, Guerrero, and Bay, depending on how the market develops.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here is why I think you will always lose this argument

by definition a second year arbitration level player gets paid 60% of open market value, that is unless that is less than 80% of what he made last year. which it isn’t. Every other player by definition has either a higher variance of production or a lower ceiling that will be paid the same. Furthermore, we have plenty of DH options on the farm as well as at least four other positions (3b SS LF SP) that need upgrading more, so spending more money on someone than we would on Cust seems foolish.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My argument isn't that we can get better value by replacing Cust.

I may have started at that place, but quickly conceded it would be impossible. I just think that given the free agent landscape, which is a wasteland at 3B, SS, and SP, DH is a place where we can improve results, if not for an equal ROI.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Improving results would a lot easier at 3B or SP

We don’t even have a 3B right now. There’s Beltre, Figgins, Derosa, Glaus, and Tejada. That’s a better than usual group, and any of those guys is a bigger improvement over Wallace or whoever than DHs over Cust. If you sign a pitcher, he’s replacing the current 5th/6th starter which does not look hard to do, as the starting pitching looks pretty dicey after Anderson and Braden. Scutaro would also probably improve the team more vs. Pennington than any of these DHs over Cust.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 25, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to take a page from Mycheal Urban;

Chavez is going to be our 2010 starting 3B

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 25, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to take a page out of most of AN:

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Who's the 3b for the other 161.5 games?

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 25, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Miggy is a huge collapse risk in my book

but his SS/3b versatility makes me want to pursue him, also i love the dude.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to second this request...

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 25, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The "love the dude" factor is huge.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very few FAs

have that versatility so I agree. Its what we need. I really worry about him sucking in a return to the AL though…

I also think he might cost too much.

by DrDoom on Oct 26, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

All of those 3Bs are risky

except maybe for DeRosa and Figgins, and whoever we sign for 3B needs to be no longer than a one-year deal (or one plus one). I don’t see how three huge injury/decline risks are a “better than usual” group.

I loves me some Scutaro, but I’ll be stunned if he ever has a year that remotely resembles the one he just had again. More likely, he’ll be what he was in Oakland, which isn’t a huge upgrade over Pennington.

At SP, Randy Wolf looks like the only guy worth signing (since Hudson will resign with the Braves), and he’s likely to be wildly overpaid thanks to his Dodger Stadium-inflated numbers this year. Keeping Duke is probably our best bet for a veteran to stabilize the rotation, and he isn’t going to cost much.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dodger Stadium is a neutral park...

and as for the assertion that those 3B are “huge injury/decline risks,” that’s true of every free agent who is not named Matt Holliday. I mean look at the guys you’ve been touting:

Guerrero and Matsui have had severe chronic injuries over the last few years.

Abreu is 36 and his WAR numbers for the last several seasons look like this: 6.3, 5.8, 4.3, 3.5, 3.0, 1.2, 2.6. Bit of a rebound at the end (which seems to be little more than random variation in his UZR), but that’s painting a picture of steady decline.

Thome is ancient— decline isn’t so much a “risk” as it is a moral certainty.

Bay probably won’t be declining for a few years yet, but since he’ll be signing a long-term deal, you’re almost certain to get it on the back end.

Personally, I think the A’s should just pay what it takes to sign Beltre and have done with it. I think he’ll rebound to at least a .730 OPS or so, which with his defense and positional adjustment will make him a very valuable player and fill the roster hole. If his listed age is correct, he’s actually still slightly YOUNGER than Jack Cust.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

When did Dodger Stadium become a neutral park?

It sure hasn’t been historically.

Beltre is fine, as long as it’s not a long-term commitment. His defense isn’t going to hold up over a long-term deal, and without it, he’s pretty useless.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Answering my own question

in the last three years, it seems, after never being 100 or better since 1962.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Remember, those scores are all relative

A ballpark can play the way it always has, and if other teams move into new ballparks, the relative score can change substantially.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Oct 25, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point.

I bet Petco Park has some affect on those numbers.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It used to have a ton of foul ground, which they eliminated a few years ago

while the newer parks that have been added in the NL are more hitter friendly.

http://www.andrewclem.com/Baseball/DodgerStadium.html#diag

Scroll over the years and you can see the changes in the fences in foul territory.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 25, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Understood.

I can appreciate how Dodger Stadium may well have evolved into a neutral park. I’d still guess that Wolf will be overpaid, though—he had a career year, even if the park didn’t have anything to do with it.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still cant figure out

how Andre Ethier was an absolute beast at Dodger Stadium, and decidedly sucky everywhere else this year.

by PL78 on Oct 25, 2009 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why is his defense not going to hold up over a long-term deal?

I mean, if we’re talking five years or something, maybe, but he’s not going to get that. I think 3/30M will get the job done.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd jump at 3/30 for Beltre

At the very least, he’s an excellent defender and defense tends to be pretty reliable as long as you’re not old.

Why his HR total dropped to 8 instead of, say, “only 16-20,” is beyond me. But anyone who appeals their own check swings deserves 3/30 in my book.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

when he got bck from theDL

he didn’t feel as “free” as he used to. He was a total commando before the injury.

by Future Ed on Oct 25, 2009 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

a better way to say it

is he was no longer a free swinger

by Future Ed on Oct 25, 2009 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plus it's hard to hit HRs

when you’re behind in the count, i.e., when you never have two balls.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because he's a huge human being.

And his range is going to decline rather quickly as a result.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 6:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's been huge since he entered the majors...

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And his stats reflect that

FRAA per 1,250 innings from 2005-2008 (Baseball Reference doesn’t have a score for this year yet):

2005: 26.1
2006: 14.5
2007: -4.1
2008: 10.3

Not withstanding the outlier, that number is going down substantially every year. It won’t be long before it’s league average or worse.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those numbers don't jive with Fangraphs.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's what I looked at

If I got it wrong, I’d be more than happy to know.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

not wrong because...

BBR uses total zone which is more crude than UZR. The difference is minimal but the thing that threw me was I thought that his 2008 was his 2009 in your sample which would have met two years of huge differences in 08 and 07.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looks more like regression to the mean than genuine "decline" to me

26.1 is ridiculous. No one is that good— it’s like batting .380 for a season.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's consistent decline, regardless of how you interpret 2005 (or 2007, for that matter).

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you believe that SI "jinxes" players, too?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure why that comment is appropriate or helpful.

Point out the part that isn’t representative of consistent decline.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's appropriate because you have once again completely elided regression to the mean

in your nonstop quest to find nonexistent “patterns” in arbitrary breakdowns of data.

BTW, that 26.1 was in 2004. The 2005 number was -0.1. Doesn’t exactly look so “consistent” now, does it.

Which is precisely the point. Looking for “consistency” in a wildly varying statistic like fielding runs is a waste of time. You’re better off just aggregating all the available data and then taking an average. Which in the case of B-Ref FRAA, is over 10 runs above average a season from 2002-2008 (a number that more or less mirrors Fangraphs UZR). Nothing I’ve seen from 2009 suggests any change from that basic performance level.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fangraphs has him at 15 FRAA/ 150

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So, let's make sure I have this straight.

Even though according to DFA, defensive decline begins at the ripe old age of 22 (e.g., Brett Wallace), I’m supposed to accept that the general downward trend in the data is meaningless just because the data fluctuates, and that even though he’s nine years older than that, he’ll be a 10 FRAA fielder over a three-year deal in Oakland?

That makes sense.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 26, 2009 6:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There isn't any "general downward trend in the data"

You’re imagining it. The fact that someone once had an unrepeatably awesome season does not mean that he is “in decline” for the rest of his career.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 26, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 27, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My choice

Let’s use a DH from within. More at bats open up for Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Daric Barton, etc.

I don’t dispute that Cust is very, very good for the money. My issue is that I don’t think we’re a contender regardless, and Cust is clearly not going to be part of our team that contends. So why is he taking away at bats from the kids?

Let DH be a rotating position.

by SeanR on Oct 24, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also an interesting idea.

Although we’ll almost certainly lose production in that scenario. The key thing is that Jack Cust is not here for the long haul, whether you try to improve production from his slot or use it developmentally.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One way to make SURE you aren't a contender is to deliberately shoot yourself in the foot...

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah since when are we like the pirates/royals?

these ideas are simply put: not helping the team contend in any way, shape or form.

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok so...

If we save $4m on Jack Cust and put it towards signing bonuses for two extra guys dropping due to salary demands in the draft, that isn’t trying to win because its sacrificing for the future?

Well gee, thats weird, because I thought we traded the present for the future a few times in the past few years. And honestly, halfway into this season, we ARE going to need an extra spot in the lineup, if you plan on getting Brett Wallace/Chris Carter/etc. some consistent playing time, instead of the usual on one day off one day method of ruining a prospect.

I’m just tired of people defending Cust by saying “what better can we get for the money”, and then bringing up a bunch of old veteran sluggers. Frankly, the fact that people think we can’t replace a guy who OBPs .356 is a little scary, although perhaps not entirely untrue.

by SeanR on Oct 25, 2009 6:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know how many individuals in the world can OBP .356 in a major league lineup?

I’m guessing it’s less than 100. Replacing those guys is not easy.

Signing overslot players is an argument that proves too much, because to the extent that any team does it (I suppose there might be diminishing returns at some point, but it’s never been approached in practice) it’s always better than any other use of money.

For any possible plan, the correct play is “do what you were going to do before and then sign the overslot players anyway,” and that’s true even if you have to pay for them using a frigging credit card. The return rates on draft signing bonuses are comical— 100%, 200% in five years, something like that.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

there were 29 players in the AL with OPS's over 850

and the Yankees had 8 of them. That leaves 21 premium hitters between the other 13 teams. about 1.5 per team. having an OPS of 850 is rare and should be considered “elite”, no?

Jack Cust has had 3 full seasons at the big league level and has OPS’d 912, 851 and 773. He is merely ONE year removed from rejoining the “elite slugger” group of 850+. 773 isnt great, but it was an off year. Grady Sizemore had one of those too, would you be trying to trade him if this was an Indians site?

Im saying right now: if a player has the talent and has proven it in the very near past, and is only 1 year removed from the elite level, and isnt over 36, then you would have to be absolutely insane to let him walk.

by PL78 on Oct 25, 2009 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

looking deeper

BOS/NYY/MINN/TB had 19/29 leaving the other 10 teams with 10 players with over an 850 OPS.

It appears all the offense is located amongst those 4 teams and the Angels, who had Morales and Hunter and the rest all 775-850.

Anyone see a pattern here? All those teams except the Rays, who were literally 4 mashers and the rest of the team couldnt hit for shit, are playoff teams.

by PL78 on Oct 25, 2009 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

weird

You keep bringing up .850, yet Jack Cust isn’t one of those players.

I’ll bet you any amount of money you want, that Jack Cust doesn’t OPS .850+ next year. You wouldn’t take that deal, so I don’t know why we keep throwing Cust out as a 850 OPS option. If he were, I’d be all over him, too.

by SeanR on Oct 25, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cust WAS one of those players

in 2008, which is a mere one season removed.

My point: he had an off year, and will bounce back to 850+.

Your point: he wont because he didnt do this in 2009.

I wont take your bet because I have no idea who you are. If there’s an online betting site where we could put it into the hands of a 3rd party, Id be more than happy to match you dollar for dollar in the 850+ category for 2010.

by PL78 on Oct 25, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'LL BET YOU 800 MILLION DOLLARS.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Note

Wishcasting is allowed when you’re talking about Jack Cust, stathead darling.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not particularly wishcasting

When he’s done it two of the last three seasons.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, the first two, and neglecting to observe the pattern.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fun fact: Jack Cust had an .825 OPS in the second half of 2009.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And that's with unusually little power, to boot

Assuming he’s fully healthy next season, that should be less of a problem.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

if I had to guess

I’d say it was remnants of the “NO MORE STRICKOUTS” approach from the first part of the season.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

So even given an arbitrarily chosen sample, he still didn’t sniff .850. .850 is wishcasting, period.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

According to your "observe the pattern" statment

He’ll be well over .850 next year. He’s trending upward.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, arbitrarily overweighting the last 1/6th of the sample is exactly what I'm after.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not really sure what the hell you're after.

You seem hellbent on proving that Jack Cust is not capable of an .850 OPS, when you’re clearly incorrect.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Incapable isn't the word I'd use.

I’d use two, in fact—“highly unlikely.”

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right, because he's never done it before

(except 2 of the last 3 seasons)

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Find me a predictive statistic that says Jack Cust will have an OPS at or over .850 next year.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Has any of that shit even been released yet?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll wait.

I’ll guarantee you there won’t be one.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 26, 2009 6:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't know why I'm bothering with this

because I’ll just be laughed at by all of you who think OBP is the be-all, end all. But what if we got a player with an OBP of .340, but the .340 had more hits, more times that it forced the defense to make an error, etc?

I mean, Rajai Davis OBP’d .361, just slightly better than Jack Cust, but its pretty obvious how much more his ignited the team, right?

Daric Barton OBP’d .372 this year. When Wallace and Carter are ready to be promoted, I sure as hell hope Barton, a guy with potential to actually improve, loses at bats to Cust.

by SeanR on Oct 25, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know why you're bothering with it either, since it does not advance your argument in any way

This whole post is an exercise in irrelevance, in fact. Neither Rajai Davis nor Daric Barton plays a position that Jack Cust plays.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

DH?

Everyone can play DH!

by SeanR on Oct 25, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You foresee Raj Davis DHing?

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 25, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not the point.

If there’s a DH on the market that could OBP .340, but had more hits, forced the defense to play, stole bases (Abreu, Damon)…

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm intrigued by the Johnny Damon idea.

I hadn’t even thought of him as a FA DH. If we were looking for one, I’d want to explore this idea further.

That said, I still want to re-sign Cust.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We ARE looking for a free agent DH

I don’t think the A’s are, though…

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

and even if they were

I don’t think an aging Johnny Damon who can now barely run fits the bill. Rather keep Hairston.

"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey

by cuppingmaster on Oct 24, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

HAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:)

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 25, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with almost all of these assesments

-I am a big fan of Delgado though and think he might be cheap enough to fall into our hands. Id love him to play 1B and only some DH though, he’d be gotten to compliment Cust’s bat in the order, not to replace him.

Nick Johnson makes a ton of sense for us….last season. This year will Barton be that much worse than him? No. I do agree that if he would be willing to take that Nomar-esque role we planned out for Nomar this year, then yeah that might work. He might also be a contender to fall for the NL→AL league switch decline (note: this is only a theory I have in my head and hasnt been proven by anyone i dont think yet)

-Jim Thome. Similar to Delgado Id definitely rather have Cust+Hairston platooning in LF and giving Thome 120 games at DH and Cust the rest at DH. He alone is not worth sending Cust back into the lake.

-Troy Glaus, actually would love having him at 3B to open the season if he can still play a below-average mlb third, then move him to DH if Wallace comes up. Again, neither of these guys makes Cust expendable. It might cut into his playing time but it would still be worth keeping Cust around for his bat.

by PL78 on Oct 24, 2009 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK this dash autoformatting thing is really starting to piss me off

I don’t actually know how to use it correctly— and as far as I can tell, neither does anyone else— and yet it repeatedly gets in the way of my comments and other people’s.

Autoformatting is such a moronic concept. If I want to format something, I will use the fucking conveniently located button immediately above the text box. Random strikethroughs of half a paragraph irritate me a lot more than spending one second clicking a damn button every six months or so.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs

As far as I can tell....

If you have one dash in a paragraph, that seems to be fine. For example, this – does nothing.

However as soon as you have two in the same paragraph, like this guy ~~and this guy~~. Oh crap.

This assumes that there is writing immediately after the dash. You could do this – and then this-, so long as there is a space after the first.

It is a semi-useful feature in theory, but it’s become more of a hindrance than a help. People tend to use the dash to indicate a bulleted list. As soon as there’s another dash inside a bullet, oh crap.

Also, never fear serial-hyphenators, if a hyphen is in the middle of a word, the auto strikethrough won’t occur with the next hyphenated word. I could put another hyphen here- and nothing will happen.

I could be missing some details but this seems to be the main idea.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 25, 2009 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can we give this like 400 recs?

How effing hard can it be for programmers to take out a crappy feature that no one likes? If it takes more than 10 minutes there was a shitty programmer involved in this version of SBN.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 25, 2009 7:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My rebuttal: How effing hard would it have been for you, or anyone on AN,

to send me (or any admin/mod who would have forwarded it to me) a nice email saying, “Hey, there’s a feature that I think no one likes and everyone hates; maybe you could follow up and see if SBN’s programmers can get rid of it.” Had anyone done that, at any time, I would gladly have followed up on it same day.

No one’s ever done that, and still no one’s doing it. But since I can see the comments and the issue is fresh on my mind, let me contact the “powers that be” and see if we can get rid of that feature.

It’s probably not difficult to get that feature removed; someone just has to ask someone (me) to ask someone (SBN’s techies) to address it. I’ll send an email today.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nico, would you please ask the techies?

people at pretty much every SBN site i have ever been to over the last two years since the switch have consistently been complaining about this bug and nothing has ever been done.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I'll do it today

and I’ll report back whether the reply is “will do” or “too bad, so sad.” Hopefully it’s the former!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've actually asked the tech people before

and been blown off with the programmer’s standard “it’s not a bug, it’s a feature!” line.

Tends to make one lose patience with the process.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But, um, I've been asking for several things

Most notably, the ability to REMOVE a blog that I’ve subscribed to.

Once you’ve made a single post, you’re no longer able to remove them. It’s maddening.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

youcould always trol till yu got booted

by Future Ed on Oct 25, 2009 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They still show up on your list in the pulldown menu though

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

mark it out with a sharpie then.

by Future Ed on Oct 25, 2009 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I tried that.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really, you're going to jump on that comment?

People have complained about that ever since the SBN upgrade. I’m sure you’ve seen it before.

As far as emailing you,yeah…. no.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 25, 2009 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Complaining randomly on a thread I may or may not see,

and if I do I’ll see it when I’m reading and commenting, not sending emails, is not a good way to facilitate a desired change. Neither is refusing to email me but then continuing to complain that nothing is happening.

Anyway, I’ve already sent an email and the fact that it wasn’t specifically brought to anyone’s attention sooner is your fault, not AN’s. It’s called “cutting off your nose to spite your face.” Take a stand against telling me something that could get something done! That’ll show ’em!!!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude

Back off.

I, and MANY OTHER PEOPLE (bold so you won’t miss that part again) have complained about this plenty over time. And we’ve definitely done it in threads you read. Do you really want me to explain on here why I have no desire for further email contact with you?

I’m glad you emailed, maybe it’ll change. I doubt it, though, since it’s not a new complaint and I’m sure the techs have heard it before.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 25, 2009 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

To quote myself

people at pretty much every SBN site i have ever been to over the last two years since the switch have consistently been complaining about this bug and nothing has ever been done.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This isn't about what I said

It’s about me. You’ll notice nico didn’t go after anyone else making the same point.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 25, 2009 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

RRRAAAGGGEEE!!!

If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.

by 9Custs on Oct 25, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

It’s about what you said, nevermoor, not about you. DFA asked me politely to follow up and I have. You have simply complained publicly and announced that you would never email me, which is fine — and really counterproductive to getting anything accomplished. It’s like when people have said, in the past, “I would never flag a comment because I’m not a snitch, but I’m going to continue complaining about people insulting me.” Shrug. OK.

As for DFA’s point about all the times it’s been mentioned on SBN sites, I only read AN and just because it’s mentioned on a thread I read doesn’t mean I’m going to spring into action. Whereas if you bring it to my personal attention, I will gladly try to help. Which is what I’ve done.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I get what youre saying Nico

but, I see the strike through bemoaned about here on AN at least biweekly in a really really conservative projection.

As we are asking for things nicely. i would like to make another request. You have a tendency to reply to someone by replying to the comment below theirs (as you did here). By doing so the OP cant see that you replied to them by looking at the recent user activity which is the way I and Im assuming some other people determine if they have missed anyone responding to them here. If you could just reply directly to the original poster I would appreciate that.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A couple notes

First of all, just to be fully clear I was not aware of the extent to which the community was bothered by the strike-through issue, or I certainly would have taken it upon myself to ask about it. It may seem to you as if it’s been mentioned so many times I MUST have known, but that’s not actually the case.

Regarding the replying thing, I actually do it intentionally because if you read down the page, as one tends to do, a comment sometimes makes sense in the flow in a way that it just doesn’t when it drops way down below a series of replies.

This actually causes me problems often with other users who do exactly what you want. Many times I can’t for the life of me figure out what they are replying to because it’s so far up the page.

I’m not trying to be difficult — it’s just that in the same way that my way works really poorly for you, your way works really poorly for me. Just one of those thangs, I guess!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you didn’t read my ~~diary~~ fanpost

by Future Ed on Oct 25, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Many times I can’t for the life of me figure out what they are replying to because it’s so far up the page.

That’s what the “up” button is for.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Holy crap.

Well. I learned something new today.

And your dream, absolve.
And your path, dissolve.

by danmerqury on Oct 25, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

its really a beautiful thing

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which button is that?

You’d think I’d know, but…well…me not so technologically inclined.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 26, 2009 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The one that says "up"

Right next to the one that says “reply”, and I know you know where that one is…

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 26, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah there it is

It’s right next to the one that says “yours”! :-)

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 26, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A serries of scribbles

My point on the strike-through is just that there really is no reason to freak out about it on either side. There is obvious consternation from a lot of people so its not like anyone by expressing/rec’ing frustration is being a dick, and obviously if you didn’t know about it you couldn’t have been expected to help, though if the tech folks don’t know about it they aren’t doing their job.

I would like to explain why I think my way should be privileged over your way. The up button takes you to the comment that the reply was made to if you need a reference. By doing things your way you often push comments faster to the side of the screen in addition to putting them in unexpected places for people that expect you to reply to.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thing is, if you just read AN from top to bottom,

which is logical like reading the page of a book from left to right, my way works well in “real time,” which is more like a bar conversation. But just different personal preferences, I s’pose. The “up” button is good to know about, soon as I figure out which button.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 26, 2009 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The one right next to "reply"

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 26, 2009 7:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh it's a LINKY thingy!!!

The reason I never noticed it is that it’s noted in some strange code. You can’t put a “u” followed by a “p” and expect me to make sense of it. How most excellent.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 26, 2009 8:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not really

The only reason to read it top to bottom is if you get to a thread late. If you are reading a thread as it is happening then it makes much more sense to scroll through to new unread content with the z key and at this point if you have issue with understanding where a comment came from using the UP button. Your style prevents reading the thread in the most logical way as it is occurring, which given that there is a technological solution to address your concerns makes it unwise in my oppinion to continue the way you do.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 26, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just don't agree

The way I read is far more like a real conversation happens when a bunch of people are talking at once.

Anyway, it’s obviously just matters of personal preference. I don’t do it to annoy you! I do it because it’s what I greatly prefer both as a reader and as a commenter.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 26, 2009 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I always disliked how blogs

add the most recent entry to the top, so you’re reading them in reverse order. I’d never read a real journal that way. I want new entries to go to the bottom, and then I’ll start from wherever I left off last time.

That bothered me for about four years until I finally got used to it. I still think all blogs are upside-down though.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 27, 2009 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess what Im saying is that there are technological tools to help you

if you do it my way, but there aren’t any that can help me if we do it yours. The up button is beautiful.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 27, 2009 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Having discovered the button, I still don't like it

because it requires me to have conversations backward: To see a comment that looks totally out of context and then to go read the comment that it’s replying to (to see which one it is), then back to the new comment now that I know what it’s replying to…

I’d just rather read the blog top to bottom like I’m in a real conversation.

What I CAN do, and will do (and I hope this helps) is to make sure that when I reply the way I do, go out of my way to address the person I’m replying to by name. We should probably all do that more anyway.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 27, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to let this go.

Have fun if you want to keep at it.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 25, 2009 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't people look at the preview?

by JetSam on Oct 26, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

rec'ed

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 7:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

you cant do bullet points then put a dash or a line or anything after it.

by PL78 on Oct 25, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You can do bullet points just fine.

Just make sure to put a space after your hyphen.

Or if you want real bullets, use an asterisk instead of a dash.

like
this

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 25, 2009 11:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How it works

I don’t actually know how to use it correctly— and as far as I can tell, neither does anyone else

I do.

An autoformat strike-through will only be opened by a hyphen which does have an alphanumeric character immediately to its right and does not have an alphanumeric character immediately to its left. An autoformat strike-through will only be closed by a hyphen which does have an alphanumeric character immediately to its left and does not have an alphanumeric character immediately to its right. If an open character is followed by a close character in the same paragraph, the text between them will be autoformatted. Note that the exact same logic applies to the characters that create italic (_), bold (*), or no-format (@) text, as well as the character for an image autoformat (!).

Consequently, there are several ways to avoid being bitten by the surprise strikethrough autoformat:

- Any hyphen (or series of hyphens) with a letter on either side of it (ie, in a normal hyphenated word) will never get you into trouble.
- Any hyphen (or series of hyphens) with spaces on either side will never get you into trouble.
- Therefore when you use hyphens for dashes be sure to consistently surround them with spaces. (In your post, Paul, you’ve made dashes with a space on one side and no space on the other. This is a dangerous habit. If the first dash had the space to the left rather than the right, you’d have gotten strikethrough.)
- Similarly, if you must use dashes for bulleted paragraphs, take care to put a space after them, as I’ve done here.
- Preview is your friend. Even if you don’t want to proofread your work, a quick glance at the preview will at least show you if there’s some gross autoformat you didn’t want.

I’m not defending the autoformat feature. I agree that it does more harm than good. But so long as it does exist, it’s less aggravation to simply understand it and work with it than to keep being surprised and pissed off by it. It’s really not that hard. When you bluster about it as if it’s devilishly unfathomable, it’s a lot like when an old-school sportswriter blusters about the unfathomability of wOBA, UZR, and XYZ.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 25, 2009 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

I was going to describe the problem that I've encountered

and then preview showed nothing wrong, so apparently I can’t even replicate the error. Which is even more aggravating. I know it’s there, I just have no idea where “there” is.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 26, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My vote goes to bringing back Garciaparra!

The foundational Western philosophical quote; "I think, therefore I am..." applies to everyone except Booby "the joke" Crozby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 25, 2009 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I will shank you.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For there being no other options

there certainly seem to be many that intrigue people.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 5:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Translation: Is it Opening Day yet?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Assuming Cust is back in Oakland for 2010,

where should he hit in the order?

Let us reopen the debate! I’m cool with 6th in the order!

"What a joke." ~ Booby Crosby

by MMunoz33 on Oct 25, 2009 7:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

1 or 2

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 25, 2009 9:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

+ more than 1 or 2

The problem with Cust batting 6th is that time after time he will walk in front of your three worst hitters. The problem with Cust batting 3rd, 4th, or 5th is that time and time again he will bring a low batting average, and low contact rate, to an RBI situation that begs for a hit or “useful contact.”

What Cust does well is HR. What he does great is reach base. Sounds like an excellent #2 hitter and a better lead-off hitter than anything that’s left if he doesn’t bat 2nd.

Note: One argument against Cust #2 is that it’s pointless to steal when he’s up because so many of Cust’s successes move the runner from 1B to 2B, or all the way home, anyway. True. However, just don’t try to steal when Cust is up. If Cust stricks out, you might send the runner while the next hitter is up, trying to turn Cust’s unproductive out into a more productive one. This is not a huge problem, compared to the value of having a .370 OBP guy at the top of the order and the value of not having a .240 hitter constantly batting with RISP.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Having him bat first or second

is going to be an awkward dance next year, since the guy who will take the other spot is, at this point, undoubtedly Rajai Davis.

Trading Cust is another option, but it’s not a very good one. It would be selling low, and I suspect he’s valued less by other GMs than he should be, anyway. Trading Davis, of course, also remains an option, although it would significantly weaken the outfield defense, and probably the offense, too.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 25, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dump Cust

Now

by smellofgrass on Oct 25, 2009 2:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice argument.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How bout this?

Dump Cust Later?

good rebutal?

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is no adequate rebuttal to the "Dump Cust Now" argument

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about

“No.”

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 25, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, two memes in about 30 seconds. Impressive.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 25, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does that subsume the advantages of Dump Cust Now?

Is it competitive? And, as an old-timer, I’m compelled to ask whether it’s topical.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Oct 25, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's topical. Just apply gently to your skin and wait 48 hours.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 25, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its a pec

so yes its mutually exclusive. Time delays are always mutually exclusive. Rather than arguing that my advantages subsume the gov plan, Im going to make some straight turns on case and just outweigh the gov. If the resolution is “This House will make the A’s better”, you could make an argument that Im my cp is topical and therefore abusive, but that sort of thinking left the debate community a long time ago. :-)

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm of a Parliamentary Debate generation

that’s old enough to see, “BIRT: This House will make the A’s better” and think of cases like, “If you had to chose one font as the greatest font ever, it would be Wingdings,” or, “The Canadian accent is better than the standard American accent.”

Although resolutions were never worded that way. They were almost always simple declarative assertions.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Oct 25, 2009 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

no my generattion still does that.

though we definitely had resolutions like that

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

-a lot

If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.

by 9Custs on Oct 25, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brewers have too many 3rd basemen. Beyond McGehee and setting aside the inevitable Gamel debate, they have a guy in AAA, Heether, who will be a minor league FA who I think could be a decent major leaguer and Taylor Green is floating around somewhere. They also have a similar guy at 2nd/OF in Iribarren. One or both of those guys could be traded with Hardy for a pitcher.

For a DH, how about Jake Fox? The Cubs are forever churning their relievers. I’d think someone decent might get it done. Or maybe Johnny Gomes. The Reds are going to have to let go of some outfielders with the number they have. I’d think either of them or someone floating around the fringes of AAA/MLB NL squads who is a “bat without a position” could be invited to ST.

by JetSam on Oct 27, 2009 5:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs