Aroldis Chapman and the A's
by PL78 on Oct 21, 2009 12:55 PM PDT
208 comments
Perusing over mlbTR this morning, I was somewhat surprised to see the A's mentioned as a top 4 player for Chapman (along with NYY/BOS/SF). I just assumed one of the big market teams would grab the mlb-ready 21 year old Cuban sensation, but then I thought "Wait, why NOT Oakland?"
-Chapman is reportedly looking for $40-60MM for what I assume would be a 4-5 year deal. We are 1 year and $15MM away from ending our relationship with Chavez, after that its a mere $6MM to Ellis and nothing significant after that, so we will soon be in the position where we are swamped with prospects at every position and have money to spend.
-Beane almost never signs FA's who pan out (minus Big Hurt), but this is a different kind of FA, he's 21.
-People point out that making a $40-60MM mistake could cripple a small market team like Oakland, but there's 2 things against that: 1. Lew has said a few times that he has no problem spending money and 2. if he does flop, oh look theres FDLS, Outman, Gio etc etc etc. Its a mistake we could feasibly make and if it pans out as good as the scouts talk about this guy being, we take the div, if it doesnt, we still contend.
-Many A's fans have talked about bringing a veteran arm in to round out the rotation, but I kind of like putting the onus on Braden and Anderson to lead the staff, having a player who right from the get-go is a leader is never a bad thing.
In the realm of against:
-ANYONE can pitch here, I mean Brett Tomko looked like Derek Lowe in his prime when he was in Oakland. Pitching and defense arent an issue here, offense is our perpetual problem, so if we're going to throw money at someone, why not a certified big bat like Jason Bay (who Beane tried to pry from SD way back when)? We could make plays for just about any top 10-20 slugger if you backload a deal around Chavez's contract. Wallace and Carter look the goods, but arent certainties, we should get a certainty in here. Someone who has mashed in the AL and/or mashed for a very long time.
Your thoughts?
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Good post, I haven't checked MLBTR recently, and am surprised to see that too.
If he is as good as advertised, it would be pretty awesome.
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
by winchester5 on Oct 21, 2009 1:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not surprised to see the A's mentioned...
they’ve made it pretty clear that they were going to try and be “players” in the international market.
However, the A’s signing Chapman is very unlikely. It’s always dangerous to give unproven international players that type of money and the A’s aren’t the type of team to take that kind of risk. To some degree, they’ve already done so with Ynoa. Chapman will sign with either BOS or NYY and the loser of that derby will sign Yusei Kikuchi.
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Oct 21, 2009 1:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey, it worked with Ariel Prieto!
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Oct 21, 2009 1:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey, at least the A's got a damn skippy rookie-league pitching coach
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 21, 2009 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was great on my Playstation
To be hit by Moriyama's fastball is an honor exceeded only by being crushed under the wheels of the imperial carriage
by elcroata on Oct 22, 2009 7:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Brett Tomko looks like Derek Lowe
Why not sign him one or two years for 3 mln ?
And spend the rest of your money on 3B and whatever looks like a good deal at any other position.
by OPS2000 on Oct 21, 2009 1:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Because Brett Tomko is not Derek Lowe
Tomko may fool you for a while, but there is no way any team building for the future or for the present should have Tomko for anything besides emergency callup.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Oct 21, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have a hard time believing we could beat out the Yankees/Red Sox/etc. for him
I think it’d be a good gamble, nonetheless.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Oct 21, 2009 2:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not sure if I like this or not.
Cuban pitcher=arm problem waiting to happen.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Oct 21, 2009 2:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Adding to this is the problem of his inconsistent velocity
suggesting unrepeatable or inconsistent mechanics.
On the other hand, the A’s seem to be pretty good at keeping pitchers healthy, as a general rule (unlike position players, where they might as well be playing Hunt the Wumpus).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 21, 2009 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except for Hudson, Mulder, Duchscherer, Harden, Street, Outman...
um… I’ll shut up.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Oct 21, 2009 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh
Duke and Harden could roll out of bed and hurt themselves (insert obvious joke here).
Mulder and Hudson never missed prolonged time in an A’s uniform. Hudson in particular just seems like he was injured more because he kept doing it at inopportune moments. Counting the 11 games he pitched in the minors in early 1999, but not the rehab start he made in 2004, he pitched 194 games in six seasons from 1999-2004. That’s way above MLB-average durability.
I’m sure you could scrounge up some others… here, I’ll even help you out— Windsor, DLS, Loaiza, Devine… the point is, pitchers get injured ridiculously often and A’s pitchers actually don’t get injured ridiculously often, not that they have a total clean sheet.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 21, 2009 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not more gaping holes in 3B jokes!!!
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Oct 21, 2009 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Oct 21, 2009 2:31 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
I'm torn
One can never have enough pitching, but Chapman is the definition of high risk high reward. It all depends on how the A’s scouts feel about Chapman. Is he worth the 30 million+ he’ll get?
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Oct 21, 2009 2:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
At some point, the A's will have to take some big risks in order to win
If they do things conservatively, they’ll always be hamstrung by the worst attendance in MLB, the undesirable stadium, the low payroll, etc.
They have to take a gamble on someone. I’d certainly rather they take that gamble on a 21-year-old FA than on a 31-year-old FA. Chapman would be the same age as the rest of our core.
My concern with Chapman is his maturity. I read that during the WBC he stared down umpires and sulked a lot when he didn’t get calls. That really doesn’t fly in MLB. On one hand, he’s 21…but it’s not Rick Porcello, Brett Anderson, or Trevor Cahill ever exhibit that behavior.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 21, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
He could be another Latin American player who gets 2 or 3 years older real quick.. and then finds out he doesn't even know his own name
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Oct 21, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that as big a risk in Cuba though?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 21, 2009 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard it's not as big now
Player’s that have participated in major international competitions tend to have more reliable documentation. Of course that is not to say it is fool proof.
by DiegoAsFan on Oct 21, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd still be OK with a 24 year old flamethrowing FA.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Oct 21, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"in the mix"
Which means they’ll be interested if his price falls, avoiding a bidding war between red sox, yankees, etc
For similar money they can bring in a couple decent hitters
by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 21, 2009 2:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
For one, I certainly hope they do not bring in a few $5M-a-year hitters
The new trend in free agency seems to be teaching us this:
*Invest in the very, very best talents available, and you can be virtually assured of strong production – Teixiera, Sabathia, Burnett.
*Invest in other people’s discards, guys over 30, pieces the Yankees weren’t willing to bid on, etc., and you’re playing a risky game. Yes, maybe you get Bobby Abreu’s season…but it’s far more likely that two $5-7M a year free agents end up being guys that Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham and Friends would’ve outperformed for only $400K. In other words, they’ll be Jason Giambi.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 21, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
A whole lot of this
Unless you have a gaping hole, a FA marginal plug is just a terrible investment.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 21, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless you have a gaping hole
coughthirdbasecough
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 21, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless you have a gaping hole
coughTWSnevermind
Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.
by danmerqury on Oct 21, 2009 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A gaping hole in third base?
Gross.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 21, 2009 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah.
It’s where Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano were standing.
Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.
by danmerqury on Oct 21, 2009 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Oct 22, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a very astute point
I would think that Zito, Hampton, Vernon Wells, Soriano, Griffey Jr, and Carl Pavano would all provide good counter examples but it does seem to universally acknowledged high end players do provide a better bang for the buck.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 21, 2009 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carl Pavano wasn't paid elite money
Griffey Jr.’s career was destroyed by injuries.
Zito and Soriano, I don’t have a good answer for…other than the fact that intelligent front offices never would’ve thrown that kind of money at them in the first place.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 22, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could just be driving up the price
Other teams might think Billy knows something they don’t since we don’t normally get involved in these things. Might make others overpay.
Doesn’t hurt to be involved in the process.
by DrDoom on Oct 21, 2009 3:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Except that the other teams involved won't really give a shit if they overpay.
It’s not like they’re exactly under budget constraints.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Oct 21, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah "driving up the price" with the yankees/red sox?
you realize both those teams have a bottomless pile of money right?
by PL78 on Oct 21, 2009 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather have a hitter
but it’s always nice to see the A’s involved in anything that involves spending money on players.
by sirbed on Oct 21, 2009 3:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
Rather have an impact bat. Ariel Prieto, he turned out to be a pretty good coach in the A’s system. Otherwise, don’t trust the cuban defectors. Contreras had some good years, but underwhelming. Morales doing some good with the Angels. Otherwise, all have been overhyped in a way that would make a Yankees prospect seem understated.
by StewCrew on Oct 21, 2009 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just Beane driving up the price
Reason I say this is most cuban players take a few years to adjust to a new country and a new level of play. Second the A’s don’t have a problem with pitching prospects but hitters. You would not spend that much money on a player unless you can hide him in your organization for a few years like the yanks could. Beane could be trying to send a smoke screen there to sign a player under the other GMs radar.
by Arcman on Oct 21, 2009 5:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This is a patently silly argument
No one is allowed to talk to pending free agent players on other teams until like halfway through November. How in the world can you “smoke screen” discussions that you cannot possibly even be having yet? (Apart from tampering, of course, but I trust Beane is smart enough not to get involved with that…)
Beane doesn’t dick around with people. If he’s making an offer, it’s a serious offer (even if it’s not necessarily the best offer on the table).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 21, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many BS rumors about the A's??
How many times you hear the A’s are pursuing somebody that is just a bunch of garbage. Example that other baseball prospect during the summer that MLBtraderumors said the A’s were early favorites. Agents many times put out rumors a team is pursuing a player. Do you realy think the A’s would spend 30 to 50 million on a pitcher that may not play in the majors for a couple of years? Beane isn’t that dumb with the money. Beane will not deny he is either because its a game of not letting the other know whats going on. Its like poker you bluff. Read moneyball and learn some of the things in Beane’s mind.
by Arcman on Oct 21, 2009 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that's necessarily true
I don’t recall MLBTR ever calling the A’s the favorites for anyone. They were mentioned among Sano contenders. They were considered favorites for Ynoa and, well, guess what? They were right. I think most rumors about the A’s are pretty accurate. Just because they don’t happen, don’t mean the rumors were inaccurate.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Oct 21, 2009 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps it would be better to say
that most rumors about the A’s are as accurate as any other rumors are, which is to say, National-Enquirer-esque.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 21, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the National Enquirer
was the only place to get news, I might read it more. It’s tough to tell with rumors. Sometimes, it’s a crazy writer’s rosterbation, sometimes it’s mistranslated subtext, and, every once in a while, it’s accurate.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Oct 21, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do like MLBTR
I just used them as a example on a rumor that wasn’t. The problem is that there is so many factors in rumors. Agents many time make up rumors to get other teams to bite. Example Furcal who was going to the A’s and even checked out Oakland but never intended to play here then went to Atlanta got a contract in writting and faxed it to LA where he wanted to be all along. This last draft the A’s did have Green as their #1 target but talked up a college pitcher so they didn’t show what they wanted. It worked since Green dropped down while pitchers were heavily picked ahead of Green.
by Arcman on Oct 22, 2009 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait, so now it's the AGENT who's starting the rumors?
Hm, that sounds like a great way to create believable alternative options— claim to have an offer from a notably parsimonious small-market team that no one will believe has the money to sign your guy!
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 22, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I missed PauThomas
During his Hiatus. I love his posts, his posts at times sound like they are intended for other legal professionals, and of course the fun adjectives like parsimonious!
by hishnik on Oct 22, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention the fun Latin phrases
ex nihilo!
ceteris paribus!
qua!!!
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 22, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Christos, quis culus
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Oct 23, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gee never happened
Hey Paul, my nigerian uncle has a 100 million dollars and need someone to spend it for him can you help? This is not like the last 1 you fell for but this 1 is better. My uncle is also a A’s fan and along with the 100 million you can use the front row seats all season long. Just send me 5,000 for the state taxes and its all yours….
by Arcman on Oct 22, 2009 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The check's ready for mailing --
just send me $0.42 cents for the stamp and we’re good to go!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 23, 2009 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at it from a economic perspective
Beane has a significantly lower vested interest in trying to drive up the prices on Free agents than their own representation. The indirect benefit from Beane depriving someone (and in this case not even divisional competition) of money seems lower than the direct benefit an agent gets by driving up the dollar amount by another million.
Just from that perspective, I’d imagine that there are two reasonably likely conclusions.
1) Beane is genuinely interested
2) The agent is manufacturing interest to drive up the price. (Seems much, much more likely to me)
Also, if Beane kept on registering interest and then not following through on it, I’d imagine there could be some negative impacts for when the A’s actually do try and follow through on FA deals. (“Well, last time you said you wanted my guy for $50M but after I advised him to wait for your offer you never came through. This time, I want a bigger/longer offer to compensate for the risk.”)
by eastbayexpat on Oct 23, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I pick 2
I agree with you say. Beane keeps very quiet on most FA. When he does talk about a player he wants other GM always jump in so he is damn if he do and damn if he don’t. I don’t see him going after to many this offseason. Maybe a DeRosa or another 3bman and a SP.
by Arcman on Oct 23, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would Beane not be interested?
This is one of the very rare opportunities for the A’s to actually acquire a potential ace on the free agent market at a semi-affordable price and an age where he is not likely to fall to pieces over the length of the contract.
It’s totally logical for the A’s to be involved here.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 23, 2009 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup...I am gonna agree with Paul, here.
And you can never have enought top notch pitching in your system. I think the A’s should go for it!
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
by mrod on Oct 24, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
whoops...I meant " enough top notch"!
:=o
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
by mrod on Oct 24, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm all for if it means
keeping him away from the Giants
by Jessse on Oct 21, 2009 6:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Contending & taking the div with one guy, seriously?
“Its a mistake we could feasibly make and if it pans out as good as the scouts talk about this guy being, we take the div, if it doesnt, we still contend.”
What makes you think 1 phenom pitcher in Chapman will allow us to take the division or contend even? We’re a long ways from contention. There’s still a gaping hitting void in our lineup. I have no confidence in this team as it is presently constructed. Outside of Zook, and possibly Rajai (I still think he’s playing over his head), we have no good bats. Everyone else is still trying to learn to hit, still mired in a AAAA funk. Whether they progress is still uncertain, so contention is still out of reach until the Barton’s, Sweeney’s, Pennington’s, and Buck’s of the world arrive and of course produce.
by sf drift king on Oct 21, 2009 7:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Because he has ace potential
so if he pans out as a 6 WAR pitcher and hes replacing Mazzaro or Cahill in the rotation then you are looking at a 6 win upgrade which is absolutely huge.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 21, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is that WAR score translated from Spanish?
Linguistic factors need to be accounted for when projecting performance.
Also, geo-political splits might be in play here.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Oct 21, 2009 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
hahaha well played
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 21, 2009 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A's could field the all-lefty rotation
Gio/Chapman/Anderson/Braden/Outman.
I predict that would lead to a lot of series sweeps, one way or the other…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 21, 2009 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I think John Halama is looking for work.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 23, 2009 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully that doesn't change
As far as work involving throwing a baseball for a MLB team while trying to get opposing hitters out goes, anyhow.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Oct 23, 2009 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh btw,
if you couldn’t tell, I’m against the signing for some of the reasons already mentioned. We’re not in a position to make that type of gamble. That $40-60MM would be better spent on adding some O.
by sf drift king on Oct 21, 2009 7:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
but again, my point above:
what “good O” could we add for $40-60M?
There are basically only two free agents who guarantee good offensive production. One is Holliday, who will cost somewhere between $110-$175 million. The other is Jason Bay, who is a very bad defender.
Every other position player free agent out there besides that duo has at least a foreseeable chance of sucking next year, or even over the life of a deal. Would it shock any of us if Chone Figgins becomes a .680-.720 OPS player in an Oakland uniform? Or if Beltre or Crede or Nick Johnson or Vlad got hurt again? Or Tejada’s hacktastic approach doesn’t cut it in the AL?
Even $40-60M still has a lot of warts.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 21, 2009 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jason Bay = DO NOT WANT
gives away everything he gains with the bat in the field and is a glorified slightly above league average player.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 21, 2009 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you really overrate defense
bad LF defense will NEVER offset a 900+ OPS. Unless he’s giving up 6 errors a game that directly lead to runs, corner OF defense isnt that big a deal, or at least not as big as you like to think it is. Sure good D Is nice to have and crucial if youre a pitching-heavy team with a light offense, but we came in last place with Ryan Sweeney at a corner spot and Manny made the playoffs.
Hitting a home run puts a run on the board, and thats always more important than giving up the random extra base to a fast runner.
by PL78 on Oct 21, 2009 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a surprising bit of information: A HR is more valuable than a single, too
Here’s another surprising bit of information: your comparison is irrelevant and ridiculous.
Missing balls in the outfield is a BIG DEAL. The difference between an out and a hit is like 8/10s of a run. It’s more valuable than a leadoff double.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 21, 2009 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
is it at all possible for you
to not talk down to people? “Irrelevant and ridiculous” why? Did you really just say 80% of hits that dropped in because of bad defense score? no, that makes no sense, see every part of YOUR post is insane.
Bottom line, you arent listing examples of how Jason Bay’s defense cost Boston runs this year to the point where it “gives away everything he gains with the bat”. It didnt, and this just another example of you guys not providing in-game examples to back up your blind following of everything fangraphs. Fielding stats are still not at a point where you can use them in arguments, hell, Id LOVE for them to be but no one’s system is full proof yet, now dewan’s not fangraphs, no ones is.
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 1:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
*not dewan's
damn late night posting, i gotta hit the hay
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 1:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude
If what you want is a small sample size of bad defense mattering, here.
If what you want is to say the best possible offensive outcome is better than the least negative bad fielding outcome, sure. Granted.
If you want to say that defense doesn’t matter, you’ll have to do a lot better than that.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 22, 2009 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I love that .gif
Though I have to say, you can get pretty much the same effect in the current playoffs by watching Johnny Damon every time he throws the ball. I don’t know if he has gotten worse over the last few years or what, but dude’s arm is ridiculously bad.
by colin on Oct 22, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's in the "highest and best use of the internets" category for sure
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 22, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and that player's offense just played a huge part
of the Phillies making the playoffs. Chalk up another point against the “defense negating the offense” argument.
Id say, in 09, that its CRUCIAL to have a bad fielding/great bat LFer. Every team in the playoffs has one! lol
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not, for example, the Cardinals
Theirs is good at both (one particularly embarrassing error aside).
Of course, your premise is silly (as I’m sure you’re aware), so there’s no real need to engage further.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 22, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know that you don't like UZR
but it thinks that Ibanez was actually an average fielder this year.
Now, before you say it, this is not necessarily evidence against UZR. It could be that fluctuations in defensive value really are this large from year to year. That would mean that the Phillies got lucky with Ibanez this year. Projecting forward, we should use at least three year of UZR, which means that expectations for Raul’s fielding are grim.
by colin on Oct 22, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I also never said
defense doesnt matter. I said defensive metrics and stats are flawed.
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course they are flawed
They’re also, for now, the best we’ve got.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 22, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
so, can we remind people to take the grain of salt before heading over to fangraphs and proclaiming “OMGZ HIZ DEFENSE NUMBER IS NEGATIVE SUCKITUDE, HE CAN HIT 40 HR AND IT DOESNT MATTER!”.
Here, let me end all referencing fangraphs defensive stats in an A’s-centric manner, the tale of the tape:
MARK KOTSAY 04-06 vs ERIC BRYNES 02-04
Kotsay: 8.8, -.3.6, -.6.6. = -1.4
Byrnes: -1.4, -4.5, 3.8 = -2.1
I refuse to believe we live in a world where Kotsay and Byrnes were the same basic level when they were here. I watched them both play and it was night and day. Byrnes was a complete joke in the field and Kotsay was mostly perfect until 06 or so, but even then he wasnt -6.6 bad.
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The fact that you are irrationally excluding the roughly 15 runs of difference in their positional adjustments might have a little to do with that
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 22, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kotsay is slightly off
In ’06 he was -6.0 in CF.
Besides that, there are a number of factors you’re missing. Firstly, speed. Byrnes was a terrible, terrible route taker. Kotsay was an amazing route taker. However, Byrnes was really fast and could make up for his routes. Kotsay started getting injured and lost a ton of his speed in ‘06 and possibly before. His routes weren’t enough.
Secondly, defensive noise. UZR takes 3ish full years of defensive data to become as statistically significant as one year of offensive data. Now, the three years you give are not good for two reasons: 1) Kotsay’s defensive skills declined over the time period and 2)Byrnes did not have three full years of data.
UZR/150 is based on the stat defensive games. It’s a better stat when comparing two players because it includes playing time. Surprisingly, Byrnes does better using that stat. Kotsay had 359 DG in CF from 2004-06. Byrnes had 250 in 2002-04. That gives Kotsay a UZR/150 of -0.58 and Byrnes -1.26.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Oct 22, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh and after all that
I forgot to mention Kotsay was being judged against CF and Byrnes against LF and RFs. The levels are much higher. Then there’s positional adjustments.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Oct 22, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It might not directly cost a run but every time someone commits an error...
…it adds extra pitches to a starter or reliever’s pitch count and forces them to work harder with someone on base to get out of an inning.
Dropping a ball with the bases loaded and two out allows at least two runs to score when none would have.
Dropping a ball with two out and none on puts someone on base but at least makes the pitcher stay out there.
Dropping a ball leading off the inning could be negated by a double play but the pitcher then has to work out of the stretch.
Extra pitches and more pressure leads to pitchers not being able to go as deep into the game as they normally would. On one hand a few errors here and there are part of the game, but a truly bad fielder is more of a liability in that sense.
I’m not saying Bay’s defense negates his offense because I don’t agree with it, but look at the misadventures of Jack Cust in the outfield for all you need to know about how frustrating and negative a poor defensive outfielder can be.
As much as you dislike people talking down to you, sometimes you bring it on yourself with the way you dismiss some things and act like you’re always right.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Oct 22, 2009 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and it's not just dropping balls
it’s not getting to balls that other fielders would track down. Jason Bay was actually fine in terms of errors this last season. It’s just that he doesn’t get to anything.
And everything that Flashfire just said is equally valid if you replace “Dropping a ball” with “Not getting to a ball that other outfielders would have caught”
by colin on Oct 22, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
In fact, you’ll see “not getting to a ball that other outfielders would have caught” a lot more than “dropping a ball.”
Back when I was a teenager listening to some games, I kept thinking about how whenever the A’s played the Orioles it seemed every time the A’s hit a ball to the outfield that was a sinking liner or in the gap somehow the Baltimore player would either get there on the run or make a diving catch. I have no idea how good they actually were in their ranges and so on but it was rare to hear one of those actually drop in. That got to be really frustrating.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Oct 22, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im not saying that bad OF defense is irrelevant
Im saying if you add up all of the things Jason Bay has done offensively, it would add up to more runs scored and therefore wins than letting a single drop in front of him. So saying “his defense negates his offense” is a completely retarded thing to say. You would have to be a super terrible player to let that happen. Even Cust playing RF still wont negate his hitting, because you can add a run with a swing of the bat. Its damn near impossible for an OF to add a run directly due to poor fielding, like how many inside the park HRs are there a year that could have been prevented? Defense is also pitcher-related and team-related as well, there’s so many variables with defense that the current statistical metrics and even (especially) raw data are all flawed.
So, say Bay doesnt get to a ball that a drops in for a single, and on the next pitch, the next hitter grounds into a double play, then Bay hits a HR in the bottom half of the inning? That is the dictionary definition of LF defense not being as important as offense.
AND I find it hilarious how every playoff team this offseason had a pretty terrible defensive LFer, more proof that LF defense isnt as important as people say it is.
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again
If what you want is to say the best possible offensive outcome is better than the least negative bad fielding outcome, sure. Granted.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 22, 2009 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think what he's saying is that
there is more variance in offensive value than defensive value. Now I remember reading an article in the last year (fangraphs maybe?) that addressed exactly this point, and found that there was something like a factor of 2 difference. So if you replace your totally average player with an amazing hitter / average fielder, that gives you twice as many runs as replacing him with an average hitter / amazing fielder. So this implies that offense is more important, but I think it’s less of a difference than most people assume.
And, just to check, I went and looked up 2009 wRAA and UZR numbers for left fielders. The best hitting left fielder (Ryan Braun) was 45 runs above average while the worst hitting left fielder (Randy Winn) was 13 runs below average. So the overall spread of talent is 60 runs. Doing the same for UZR, you find the difference between Carl Crawford (best LF defense) and Ryan Braun (worst defense) is a bit more than 30 runs. This is far from a complete study, but there’s the factor of 2 again.
by colin on Oct 22, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that follows
The spread is less, but that doesn’t make defense less important (just less variable).
A +10 hitter, -10 fielder is still worth zero.
What he’s saying is: “say Bay doesnt get to a ball that a drops in for a single, and on the next pitch, the next hitter grounds into a double play, then Bay hits a HR in the bottom half of the inning” which is (at best) an irrelevant straw man.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 22, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
“A +10 hitter, -10 fielder is still worth zero.”
Thats very very wrong and I agree with Colin.
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lol
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 22, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hold on a sec
I totally think that a +10 hitter, -10 fielder is still worth zero.
What I’m saying is that, if you take a random left fielder, the run value of their hitting ability will be distributed over a range that is twice as large as the run value of their fielding ability. So the sort of vague question of “how good of a hitter are they [relative to their peers]” is about twice as relevant to their overall value as the question “how good of a fielder are they [again relative to their peers]”.
Another way to put it is that you would rather have the best hitter / worst fielder than the best fielder / worst hitter. Of course, that’s in the situation where these two players are getting paid equally. In the real world, the first guy is considered an elite player while the second guy is considered an oddity at best.
In summary, don’t give Jason Bay elite money.
by colin on Oct 22, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"In summary, don’t give Jason Bay elite money."
I dont think Bay is worth more than Holliday, I think he’s worth $12-15MM over 3-4 years. I dont know if you classify that as “elite” but if he OPS+s 130 Id be happy with it, I honestly wouldnt care if his defense was -60 according to some flawed system. Offense is offense, and we dont have offense, and arent getting anywhere with defense.
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
Amusingly, the $12-15M range is exactly what fangraphs has valued him at over the last couple of years, which includes the big hit he takes from UZR.
So yeah, that might be a decent deal. Personally, I think it’s more than the A’s should get involved with. But for a team like Boston, who can afford the financial hit if he sucks in 2013, and who also have sort of unique defensive requirements for their left fielder, it would probably be nice.
I also think that Bay $15M/year is a lowish estimate for what Bay will end up signing.
by colin on Oct 22, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
in this economy
he wont get more than $15MM per year unless its a 2 year deal. If he wants 3-5 years he’s going to have to settle for 12-15 per.
And the idea that yes, his defense isnt very good, theres no shame in turning him into a 33 year old full time DH either. But now I just found out that Bryce Harper might fall out of the first round Id rather we pony up and pay him $18MM or whatever it would take to get him instead.
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That I agree with
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 22, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Until you factor in positional adjustments.
In which case a +10, -10 first baseman is worth less than zero, and a +10, -10 SS is worth more than zero.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Oct 22, 2009 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
WTF?
“In-game examples”? I’m supposed to come up with specific examples of Jason Bay NOT getting to a fly ball?
Sure, I’ll get around to that right after I finish squaring the circle and perfecting my universally consistent logic machine.
Did you really just say 80% of hits that dropped in because of bad defense score?
If that was the case, the run expectancy given up from dropping a fly ball would be a fuck-ton better than 0.8. So no, I did not say that.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 22, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In all seriousness though
Is Bay’s defense so bad that it really negates all of his value? I’m a little skeptical of putting entirely that much faith into the defensive statistics to draw that conclusion, but I could well be wrong.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Oct 22, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, at least not so far in his career
He’s been worth much more with the bat than his glove has cost him for his career, and every year except 2007 when he didn’t hit. He is definitely an above average player. The problem is he’s not that good as it is, his defense is not going to get any better and he is unlikely to keep putting up monster offensive numbers, so he doesn’t project to be much better than average if at all over the course of a 5 year contract or whatever he gets.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Oct 22, 2009 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
“negates all his value” does not mean “0 WAR.” It just means that a very talented hitter isn’t worth anywhere near as much as he looks to be because his defense sucks.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 22, 2009 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
THEN WHY DIDNT HE JUST SAY THAT?
It just means that a very talented hitter isn’t worth anywhere near as much as he looks to be because his defense sucks.
I would never responded if it were written like that. But is that what he’s really saying? Lets bring it back:
gives away everything he gains with the bat in the field and is a glorified slightly above league average player.
Yeah I think you are candy-coating it, this is still the dumbest thing ive read on here.
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but I still agree with the second statement
Take Jason Bay 2009. From fangraphs, he worth 34 runs over a replacement level player. That’s pretty good. But it’s also a comparison to a replacement level player. If you compare him to an average major leaguer, he is only worth something like 13 runs, a little more than 1 win. That sounds like slightly above league average to me.
Now, there is nothing wrong with slightly above league average players. After that last few months of Scott Hairston, I would love to have an above league average player on the A’s. But Jason Bay is going to be looking for an elite-level free agent contract, and there is no way he’s worth that.
by colin on Oct 22, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we can get back to raw numbers (I know, frowned upon over here)
Minus his 2006 Bay has been a 900 OPS hitter. Thats very good no matter how many metrics you run it through. He takes walks, hits home runs and gets on base 37.5% of the time, that is far from “slightly above league average”. His career OPS+ is 131, it would be nice to have a 131 OPS+ guy in LF. Id pay him $12-15MM over 4 years to give me that.
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but now you're not considering defense at all
No matter how many flaws UZR has, do you really think that you are better off ignoring defense entirely when evaluating a player?
by colin on Oct 22, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I take some of that back
In PL78’s statement, there is an implicit evaluation of Bay’s defense, which is to assume that it’s league average, or close enough that it doesn’t matter. So I guess you could count that as a case of assigning a huge error to UZR, so that it just regresses all the way to the mean.
by colin on Oct 22, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Not evaluating defense" and "regressing it all the way to the mean" are exactly the same concept
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 22, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what I meant to say
is that there is a logically consistent position to hold that claims that UZR values are just noise, so player evaluation works better if it is left out. And this position does not require you to think that defense is unimportant, just that we can’t measure it.
Of course, in other comments, PL78 does seem to imply that defense is unimportant, so maybe I was being too nice.
by colin on Oct 22, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remember when this thread was about Aroldis Chapman? sigh
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, and then it got threadjacked by someone talking about how UZR was the work of the devil
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 22, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My issue -- and my only one, so please realize
I’m not bagging on UZR or any of you personally — is in saying “UZR isn’t perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got” when the fact that defensive metrics still have such huge variance and require such large samples is precisely why it’s not a great idea to jump too quickly to put too much stock in them.
It’s like my saying, “Good chance of rain tomorrow. I mean, my internet’s down so I can’t see a forecast but looking out my window, where I can only see a patch of sky southeast, it’s kind of dark. Hey, it’s not the ideal way to forecast, but at the moment it’s the best we’ve got.”
If that’s the best you’ve got, maybe it’s best to go with answer choice “e” — the old “not enough information provided to answer the question.”
Now defensive metrics aren’t as flawed as my extreme weather example, but as long as they are about three times as inexact as offensive metrics you’re really talking about a “+10, -10” player being a “10 (/- 1), -10 (+/-3)” player, which can start to be closer to a “we know he’s a great hitter and his defense is somewhere from not good to awful, but it’s a little harder to say.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 23, 2009 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are some good arguments that UZR does a better job than offensive stats at measuring true talent
so I don’t know where you are getting your three time less exact?
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 23, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, plucked out of my ass (it wasn't being used)
based on needing 3x the sample to form a meaningful assessment.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 23, 2009 7:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One hitting season isn't a particularly good sample size for true talent either
See Davis, Rajai: which is real 2008 or 2009?
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 24, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
uzr if perfectly executed would do a better job
than offensive stats at measuring true talent, because defensive true talent and defensive performance are likely a good bit more stable than offense. But it is not executed particularly well.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Oct 24, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No in its present forms there are some good arguements by MGL about why it is better
most notably is the “buckets”. wOBA is good at measuring contributions in predefined buckets (singles, 2b, 3b, HRs, etc) however what it doesn’t do is distinguish between types of outcomes within that bucket. Think about this, what is a better indicator of true talent: a screaming line drive that hits off the wall so hard that the batter is limited to a single or the excuse me swing pop up that lands right behind Adam Dunn at 1b. Clearly the hard line drive is. The only thing a batter really has control over is how hard they hit the ball, but wOBA and current measures of offense only with buckets that describe the product of talent plus luck. That doesn’t exist with UZR really. You either get to a ball hit at a speed in a zone or you don’t. There really isn’t the same amount of luck involved in the pitching buckets that there are with hitting buckets.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 24, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well,
first of all, there’s plenty of luck in uzr even in a perfect world, such as whether or not other fielders catch the ball, and the varying difficulty levels of balls ranked 1, 2, or 3 in hit-hardness…. But I don’t disagree with that idea—there is a good argument that it is better conceptually.
My point is that uzr is not executed well due to unreliable data that leads to error-riddled numbers. With the offensive outcomes, while they are an imperfect proxy for true talent, at least we know that they actually happened.
UZR disagrees with itself using different data sources to a fairly shocking extent. E.g.
Mark Ellis:
sUZR 2003-2007: +53
bUZR 2003-2007: +25.5
Ichiro:
sUZR 2003-2007: +17
bUZR 2003-2007: +60
The amount of error and the fact that you need more seasons of data to get the reliability of the sample completely overwhelms the conceptual advantage.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Oct 24, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think there's a lot less of dfa's point
Than, say, CF shading way towards left and batter hitting to RCF. UZR will give huge demerits, but it isn’t the CF’s fault.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 24, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why isn't it the CFers fault?
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Giving OFs credit for positioning
which for the most part is done by the coaches is really really really really really really dubious. Advanced fielding metrics are an elaborate attempt to eliminate positioning from consideration.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Oct 25, 2009 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
But I think it’s still more of a problem than the fluke double vs. ripped single
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 25, 2009 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its more than that
its a bullet out vrs a fluke double there is a 1.08 value increase on something that is not indicative of skill.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but is there any more error in that data than
the error in how hard a ball you have to hit to get on base?
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, much more
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Oct 25, 2009 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you are exagerating.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 25, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But that's loser thinking, Nico.
You obviously have not learned the important lesson of the SAT: It’s always better to guess than to not guess. Even if you only have the slightest hint of an idea, it still will improve your chances of scoring points on average.
And since the SAT is a measure of general ability in all types of success, it stands to reason that the same principle applies to everything else in life, too.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 23, 2009 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there a Kaplan prep class I can take
to improve my OPS 80 points?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 23, 2009 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 2:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
WTF?
There’s a picture of Jack Cust on that site. Behold.
I have a bobblehead staring at me right now that looks more like Cust than this picture.
Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.
by danmerqury on Oct 24, 2009 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I agree that I’d rather have a +20 hit / 0 field guy than a +20 field / 0 hit guy (everything being equal) because I feel more confident I have a good hitter than I would about having a great fielder.
I wouldn’t, though, rather have a +15 hit / 0 field guy than a +20 field / 0 hit guy. I have enough confidence in UZR for that.
Basically, if you don’t use UZR your choices are to either (1) ignore defense or (2) use a worse measure of defense. Both of those are worse, so we use UZR. When hitfx is up and running, better metrics will emerge and we’ll use them.
The other thing about improved metrics is that they probably won’t diverge from UZR that much. As an example, wOBA is better than OPS, but the leader boards look very similar (Pujols, Mauer, Fielder, Votto top four in that order, then Lee and Youkilis as the next two). It’s more precise, but not wildly different or anything.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 23, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
(3) regress uzr to the mean
(4) use 3 and average some different metrics also, regress the whole thing to the mean.
(5) in the case of newish players, use some stats and some guessing.
All of these are better than (1), but better than the way uzr tends to get used. E.g., in your hypo, if there are two players and all we know about them is that last year they were +15 on offense/0 defense and +20 on defense/average offense according to UZR, I’m pretty sure it would be most rational to take the +15 guy (or at the very least very close.)
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Oct 24, 2009 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Slightly above league average != 0 WAR
This year, for example, Jason Bay was 33.7 RAA batting, -13.9 RAA fielding. Add in replacement value (21.3) and fielding adjustment (-7.1) and you have a 34 RAR (3.4 WAR) player.
That’s pretty good (there are only 60 players with a better 2009 WAR). You can take out replacement value and see that it’s 1.3 WAA, which I don’t mind calling “slightly above average,” but could also be described more generously. The overrating comes because he’s the 22nd best hitter (by 2009 BRAA).
I don’t know why you need to stretch the site decorum rules, it’s far from the dumbest thing on here.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Oct 22, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe his original comment...
was just as much about decorum as it was the statistics. If people’s responses were less aggressive, this argument would have been about half as long. PL’s decorum isn’t the issue… he’s been pretty patient.
by DrDoom on Oct 22, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
So, make him a DH.
He’d be a significant upgrade over Cust, and less of a disaster when you have to run him out in the field when shorthanded.. Problem solved.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Oct 23, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we pay him like a DH or do you think he'll insist
on being paid like a position player?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 23, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the million dollar question.
I’m not saying replacing Cust is a necessity, it’s just a good place to look given the kind of bats that are on the market (which are predominantly ones that can’t field), and given that Cust will be less of a steal ROI-wise going forward. I’m also concerned about the decline in his stats.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, Bay wouldn't really be that big of a significant offensive upgrade over Cust.
At least certainly not to the point where you’d spend ~10 million more for the difference between him and Cust. Plus, it’s ill advised to give a long term contract (13-15 million dollar a year) to a guy that you plan to primarily DH, and who’s actually older than Cust.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 23, 2009 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How wouldn't he be a significant upgrade?
OPS+ of 134 and 132 the last two seasons, compared to Cust’s 132 and 109. That’s significant—especially comparing the stability to the decline trend. The difference in age is trivial—Bay is all of three months older.
I agree on the costs, though, if that’s really what the difference in price will be. I’m not yet convinced Bay will be that expensive. If he is, there are still options to upgrade DH that shouldn’t be as expensive.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who?
Who are these “options”? Names, please.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose one could argue
1. sign Branyan
2. sign Nick Johnson
3. trade for Jake Fox
You might even get lucky and catch a “career year” from Eric Hinske, Jonny Gomes, or Ty Wigginton, all of whom are 29-32.
You just have to guess right on who will be a bargain and who will be an overpaid dud.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Problem is
none of those guys are guaranteed to be “worth it” in terms of performance and dollars relative to Cust.
You would have to sign Branyan (a guy coming off a career year at age 34) for a far steeper yearly cost than Cust and for much longer years too (because of said career year). And even in his career year, he was worth all of 2.8 WAR and his career wOBA is still lower than Cust’s. I have a hard time believing he’s worth the risk.
Johnson, of course, has a host of injury issues and would also require 2-3 years and more money per year. Again, a high risk proposition.
Guys like Wiggington, Hinske, etc would cost about the same as Cust and would probably perform about same as Cust as well. I find no reason to waste further resources on any of these guys, trying to see if they’d be any more than a marginal improvement at best. I’d rather stick it out with Cust for one more year and go after a real impact player in 2011 (although next year’s FA class looks pretty mediocre as well).
Or we could just throw a shitload of money at Matt Holliday….
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 24, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think an important, but hidden, point here
is that as it stands the A’s basically have Cust on a “one year plus an option year” deal, because they can still tender him for 2011 if he does well next season, or not if he sucks or the team has too many other hitters.
1+1 is a very, very favorable contract situation. It’s much better than a contract for either one year or two years.
Also,
Wigginton
Wigginton
Wigginton
Wigginton
Wigginton
Wigginton
Wigginton
Wigginton
(who is not a free agent, BTW)
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 24, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Cust's contract situation is much more desirable than any other "option" out there
The implicit and explicit marginal costs of upgrading Cust to {whatever DH option} are greater than whatever benefit derived from that upgrade.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 24, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The best/only argument I could see for non-tendering Cust
would be to pinch a few extra pennies in order to give them to Holliday, which is not gonna happen.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Oct 24, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent point about 1+1
I already thought keeping Cust made the most sense just for one year. I didn’t even think about the option, so that makes it even better.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of names that get spelled wrong
Since you got me thinking on the subject……where in the hell did FDLS’ Faustino bastardization come from?
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
by walk off bunt on Oct 24, 2009 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The kid from Married with Children?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Oct 24, 2009 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean the guy?
That was Amanda Bearse.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 24, 2009 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
seriously.
I was starting to think I had his name wrong all along.
by Elston Gunn on Oct 24, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been wondering about that, too.
I have seen a few other "Fautino"s, so I know it’s not just random weird parents like the ones who named Jhonny Peralta. It seems to be an established alternate spelling, but I haven’t been able to identify the origin.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 24, 2009 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In no order
and just in terms of whether or not I believe they will have better numbers than Cust next year—there’s no point in speculating about the costs until we have a better handle on the market:
Matsui
Guerrero
Thome
Abreu
Ramirez
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you don't want to speculate about costs, then there's no reason for us to conduct this exercise at all.
I mean really, then all you and I would do is point to some random free agent who had better numbers than Cust this year and say, “There, I want that guy.”
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 24, 2009 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough.
I am not attempting to conclude that the A’s need to replace Cust, only that they should explore it because it’s possible it could be worth it. When enough information becomes available to point out such a player, I’ll be sure to do so, if they exist.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Considering that Bay made about 7.5 million dollars this year and that he had a great season for the Red Sox
I find it hard to believe that he won’t get anything below 13 million dollars a year for ~5 years or so. Cust made 2.8 million dollars this year and stands to make about ~3.8 or so next season. Essentially, you’re going to be paying ~10 million dollars more per year for ~5 more years of a player on the wrong side of 30 who you primarily want to DH. All of that for a .020 career wOBA increase over a player who you don’t have any lengthy contractural obligations whatsoever.
In your fervor to replace Cust, you pretty much screwed over your team for an upgrade that becomes relatively trivial once all the logistics are worked out.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 24, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please point out this "fervor," thanks.
I’m being jumped all over for no good reason—it’s really amusing how much people get their panties in a bunch about Jack Cust.
If the contract is as (exaggeratedly) awful as you suggest, then obviously, there would be no reason to sign Jason Bay.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If "there's no point in speculating about costs"
then why bother asserting that Jason Bay would get less than what I speculated about his contract? Or is the “We shouldn’t speculate about costs!” mantra only applicable when it fits your argument?
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Oct 24, 2009 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because you brought it up.
I’ll be astonished if Jason Bay gets a five-year deal. If it’s that long, there’s no way the A’s should commit to it.
If a DH upgrade emerges that will be of value to the A’s, it will be for no more than a two year commitment.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
by jeepers on Oct 24, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bay will get a 5 year deal
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 24, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait, so a single that was going to be an out is more valuable than a leadoff double?
m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!
by JediLeroy on Oct 22, 2009 1:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not exactly.
He’s saying that although a leadoff single is obviously not worth more than a leadoff double, the difference in run expectancy between the out and the single (no one on/1 out —> guy on first/0 out) is greater than the run expectancy that a leadoff double is worth.
But, PT, wouldn’t you have to subtract the leadoff double state from the start of the inning state? Sure, a guy on 2B with no outs is 1.189 runs, but no one on with no outs is already worth .555.
Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.
by danmerqury on Oct 22, 2009 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Er, nevermind that second paragraph.
Math fail on my part.
Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.
by danmerqury on Oct 22, 2009 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
It gets confusing because they are calculated differently and compared to different baselines, and so this sort of thing is not really a good way to think about it.
OFs are generally scored by # of plays above or below average, and that number of plays is then converted to runs. The run values of these plays winds up being higher when assigned to the fielders than when assigned to the hitters because with the notion of, eg, 1 play below the average fielder, the baseline of the average fielder for that play is an out, so the run value assigned to the fielder for that play is (increase in RE from hit+decrease in RE from counterfactual out.) With plays above/below average for fielders, the baseline will always be a generic hit or an out. What makes it confusing when comparing to hitters is that the baseline used to measure hitters is not an out or a hit but a net 0 change in RE. So applying the generic weights used to evaluate players to particular games just gets silly and confusing because how well various players perform relative to some baseline is not really at stake in any given game.
In any case, comparing a “missed play” in the outfield to a hitter hitting a double is a confused way of looking at things in the sense that you can’t apply it actual events happening in a game you’re watching, because in real games there is no such thing as a generic made or missed play relative to the average fielder that you could then compare in importance to a leadoff double.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Oct 22, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Holliday's error in the playoffs was not a factor because he is such a good hitter?
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Oct 22, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no
thats a small sample scale. i get the feeling that Bay would allow 0.5-1 extra singles a week due to his bad defense, which at worst, lets in 1 run, a run he can easily get back by hitting. Thats the entire argument here. dfa sez that his defense negates anything he can do with the bat, which I, along with many others, disagree with.
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aroldis!!!
Can you imagine if that was a real name?
-Cindi
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 21, 2009 7:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
And his sibling would be called
Uroldat!!!
by branch rickey on Oct 21, 2009 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One thing the A's can offer him:
A virtually guaranteed spot in a 2010 major league rotation.
Of course the Yankees and Red Sox can outspend the A’s if they choose to. But they can’t promise him a spot in the rotation. If Aroldis is terrible next year, well, the Yanks and Red Sox can’t afford to allow a guy to be terrible and figure it out every 5th day while competing for the division crown There’s too much at a stake, and too many good internal options to take the 5th starter mantle.
But a non-playoff contender can.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Oct 21, 2009 8:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Is anyone expecting him to be ready next year?
I was under the impression that Chapman would likely be sent to the minors upon signing to work on secondary pitches.
by DiegoAsFan on Oct 21, 2009 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking that he would be signing a Major league contract
So he would be on the 25 man roster from day 1.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Oct 22, 2009 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not true
with a MLB contract you have three option years. So he can sign a MLB contract and get sent to rookie ball in Arizona if the A’s want to.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 22, 2009 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He would however be on the 40 man
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 22, 2009 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chapman is a cursed baseball name.
Pass.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 21, 2009 9:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Remember the debates from eight or nine years ago … Who will have the better career? Chase Utley or Travis Chapman? Ah, good times.
by StickRat on Oct 22, 2009 2:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Oct 22, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
???
→ 
??
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 22, 2009 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
by monkeyball on Oct 23, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love you, man,
but your pictures are in need of a “height” parameter and/or subject line.
Bad monkey.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 23, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really like the idea of adding a good, possibly great pitcher to the rotation for years to come.
But I’m not sure there is sufficient evidence that Chapman is that player.
My point is, I’d worry that the A’s were buying an ideal rather than a pitcher. It’s much easier to dream on Chapman’s velocity and beautiful slider without having any pesky statistics to show us just where he stands in relation to other prospects.
The extent of what I know of his stuff comes from these articles from BeyondtheBoxscore:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/15/798267/cuba-pitchf-x
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/3/936575/graph-of-the-day-aroldis-chapmans
One is a convincing endorsement of his lightning fastball, another is documentation of a bad start. That’s it.
I know that the A’s scouting department has got a lot more info, but I personally can’t really decide from what I know.
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Oct 21, 2009 9:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
PL78
Thanks for the heads up… but no link?
Bad form old chap. Now I have to go track down the story myself, which might require more than the 3 brain cells I’m currently using to read AN.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Oct 21, 2009 10:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Is no one else concerned
About adding a communist to our team?
No one?
Well, me neither, its just that I kind of miss McCarthyism some times. All that wacky fear mongering is just good for getting the pulse up.
by mikedaviswhereareyou on Oct 21, 2009 10:25 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
This comment is actually hilarious if you're a student of urban sociology
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 21, 2009 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a damned good thing there's no commie pinko Russians in the NHL.
What’s that? There are? Well, they probably suck anyway.
Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.
by danmerqury on Oct 21, 2009 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aroldis Chapman is not only a communist but also a nazi.
To let him play baseball is similar to what happened before World War II because it is “appeasing” him. When will you all wake up and realize this?
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
by Aufheben on Oct 22, 2009 1:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Out of curiosity...
…in German does your username mean “cancel” or “on lift?” ;-)
I used freetranslation.com so I could be totally off.
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Oct 22, 2009 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It means both.
It means to build/create by tearing down/destroying. Its one of those words that only exists in German, and I figured it was appropriate for the A’s
"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs
by Aufheben on Oct 22, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nice
Last of the Ninth - Photography
by Flashfire on Oct 22, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay if you dont like Chapman
I don’t think it’s far-fetched to conceive of Bryce Harper falling out of the first round. It’s going to be almost impossible to live up to the hype, and if he falls short and is looking for big money—is Strasburg’s contract a starting point—he may scare off clubs, who know he can re-enter the 2011 and 2012 drafts and still have lots of leverage. It’s also possible that after spending $15.1 million on Strasburg, the Nationals don’t want to spend huge money on another No. 1 overall pick.
I figured he’d go at least at 1-3, we have the #10 pick, if he’s around do we take a shot at him? It seems like a perfect move, he’s similar to Ynoa in terms of hype only he’s an OF with a ridiculously high ceiling. What if we had Chapman, Anderson, Cahill, Ynoa, Carter and Wallace all on the same team? Its kind of scary to think thats actually not entirely something that will never happen.
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 3:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
that link didn't work for me
I ended up on an article about NFL teams moving to LA.
by colin on Oct 22, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry
that other post was about how the Raiders might move back to LA that I posted in another thread here’s the real link.
by PL78 on Oct 22, 2009 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't Harper a C, not an OF, or has he switched?
I’d love to draft Harper if he fell to the A’s. Any time you have a chance to take an elite player, you take it. That said, it’s probably a similar situation to what was said of some of the tough signs this year: Green, Matzek, Crow. At one point, experts suggested they could fall out of the 1st round. They all went top 15.
Maybe Harper is way greedy and falls like Porcello (imagine if we had taken Porcello over Simmons…), but out of the first round? The only way that happens is if Harper really sucks this year. Harper will probably ask for the moon, but he deserves it and some team will give it to him.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Oct 22, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he'll be way greedy.
From everything that I’ve read, it seems that Harper is a smart kid, but he wants to get to the big leagues ASAP.
He’ll probably demand a major league contract out of the draft, and he’ll probably demand big money, but he won’t delay his path to the big leagues by a full year. Keep in mind that he went out of his way to get his GED as a high school sophomore and then go to Junior College for a year just so he could be eligible for the draft sooner.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
by mikev on Oct 22, 2009 9:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how we can give up that much dough
Let’s say he’s as ready as Strausburg more or less, he didn’t get that type of money. Not that I’m against taking a risk or spending top dollar on prospects like this but thats a ridiculous figure. If we could put together the highest bid for 30 million or under then I would be down, but 40 to 60 million ain’t right, it’s bad for the game. Let’s those aholes back east do that shit.
by Boss Playa on Oct 22, 2009 11:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Chapman....
Doesn’t even throw a breaking ball…. Unless you want to pay 40-60 Million for a reliever. You need at BARE minimum 2 pitches to be a started, and even then you will need to develop a 3rd. I say no, the cost is too much. Scouts just get so wet when they see triple digits. Doesn’t matter if that triple digit fastball is 14 rows into the bleachers ala Henry Rodriguez.
I'm the genius who said Chris Carter will slug .650 his rookie season.
by JamesCaprio on Oct 23, 2009 10:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
He has a fastball, cutter, changeup, and slider at his disposal. And his slider rocks pretty hard, from everything I’ve heard.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/second-round-wbc-coverage/
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/15/798267/cuba-pitchf-x
Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.
by danmerqury on Oct 23, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
well this changes things in my mind.
Apologies, when I watched the ESPN special on him they specifically said “He only throws a fastball.” Goes to show how good ESPN’s reporting is.
I'm the genius who said Chris Carter will slug .650 his rookie season.
by JamesCaprio on Oct 23, 2009 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In fairness to ESPN, if he's never thrown an offspeed pitch to a Yankees or Red Sox hitter
you can see where they would get that perception.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 23, 2009 7:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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