2010 Community Prospect List - #10

Gave my vote to Kilby

to recognize his small sample of success in the majors, wheeeeee

So Ynoa takes #9 despite not playing. Wonder how much he would fall in the rankings if everyone from last year’s list was still eligible… any guesses? :p

100% Athletics, 100% Baseball. 2009 Athletics, 40% Baseball.

by fruitattack on Oct 19, 2009 12:00 AM PDT reply actions

Ynoa has the talent to be one of the best starting pitchers in the league which is much more valuable than a good reliever. On the flipside there is a much higher chance than Kilby reaches his potential ceiling, but the gulf in difference between their ceilings means that Ynoa deserves to be higher. Let me put it this way – do you think there is a GM in the game that would trade Michael Ynoa for Brad Kilby?

by DeJay on Oct 19, 2009 1:48 AM PDT up reply actions

How do we even know he'll be a starter?

He may have a great arm (debatable since he hasn’t played) but do we honestly know that he has the endurance for starting? He could very well wind up an expensive reliever. So yeah, I bet there is a GM out there who might make that trade.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 19, 2009 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Well maybe you are right

There was a GM who was willing to trade Kazmir for Zambrano so anything is possible. Doesn’t mean it is the smart thing to do though.

by DeJay on Oct 20, 2009 1:45 AM PDT up reply actions

This is taking certainty over upside to the extreme

Kilby represents about the most fungible asset in baseball.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 20, 2009 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Good lefthanded reliever?

I think you overestimate how many of those are out there.

Obviously it’s situational, but if my team was heading to the playoffs and had a weakness at lefthanded relief, I’d have a hard time explaining to the fans why I didn’t upgrade it at the cost of only an injured 17-year-old.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 20, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions

I guess from my perspective

There are two things to consider: 1) Just how good is Kilby. My guess is not as good as his limited ML sample would perhaps indicate. 2) Like you said yourself, it’s situational. I’d be willing to sacrifice even a good situational reliever for a 17-year-old with the scouting reports of God, injury and all.

As little value as even good relievers can provide by themselves, it’s even more pronounced with relievers whose value is tied up in situational success. Kilby’s AAA FIP the last two years is about a run higher against right handers, at least if what I’m looking at on minorleaguesplits is any accurate.

I also think it’s silly that there seem to be a few people ready to write Ynoa off entirely when what we know about his injury essentially amounts to nothing.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 20, 2009 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions

I agree that the "he doesn't exist until he posts some meaningless rookie-ball statistics!!1!" position is idiotic

but the point is that if you are trying to win now and are on the cusp of the playoffs, trading extreme risk for decreased risk, when the average production is about the same, is very logical.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 20, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions

Certainly

But now we’re talking about ranking prospects based on how they fit into an organization. If you’re the New York Yankees, you take Kilby. If you’re the Oakland Athletics….

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 20, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions

Um, I'M not talking about ranking prospects based on how they fit into an organization

By that standard, Brett Wallace suddenly gained huge amounts of value ex nihilo when he was traded from St. Louis. Which is ludicrous.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 20, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Well I wasn't either

Maybe I misunderstood you, but when I read, “if you are trying to win now and are on the cusp of the playoffs,” it implied to me a context that would aid Kilby’s cause.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 20, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Not his rating on a prospect list, just his trade value

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 20, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Ah, my misunderstanding then

No disagreement then.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 20, 2009 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Also, I disagree with your second sentence in general

The Yankees can buy an unlimited number of “merely good” players on the free agent market. Prospects with a good chance of hitting a relatively low upside are far more valuable to small market teams than they are to teams like the Yankees, who really do only need to care about upside.

It might be that midseason, the Yankees might want a Kilby, but it’ll never be the case in the offseason, because they’ll just buy whatever the best LOOGY on the market is.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 20, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions

I thought of that response after I posted

And I actually think you’re right. So I’m happy to back off it.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 20, 2009 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't see anyone writing Ynoa off entirely

Just differing in how much value is placed on him at this point. In a year or two, if he trends towards those rose colored glasses that scouts et al. are claming, trust me, the value I’d place on him would go through the roof.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 20, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions

I think there's simply a philosophical difference then

I think some are willing to put value on Ynoa’s incredible ceiling. If he performs well in the next two years, that ceiling hasn’t really changed. I think the point that I, at least, would make, is that the talent at the highest end of the spectrum, the talent Ynoa supposedly represents, is so rare to come by that it’s more important to most organizations than the certain, but limited, value a Brad Kilby represents.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 20, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions

It might be a difference in philosophy

But let me ask this then. For A’s and other non-Yankees/High Payroll teams, which is more important to have in-system, guys who have a high likelihood to reach their potential or guys who have a lower likelihood to reach a higher ceiling? And no, this isn’t a case of value to the A’s necessarily, but if most teams are more likely to take a sure thing before of need (which I believe they do because they can’t absorb the risks with money), then the sure thing becomes more valuable. This isn’t to discount Ynoa entirely, not at all. He does have value, to me though, until he’s much closer to reaching that potential, it’s just not nearly as great as a lot of the prospects we have in house. Right now, Ynoa is just an idea, a happy thought, it’s just how far away from reaching his potential he is. He’s just so far off on the curve that balances potential and likelihood. A couple of years of performing up to that potential and his value (while nothing else has changed including his ceiling) skyrockets.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 20, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions

No more so than ranking a guy who hasn't played the game as a top-ten prospect.

But mainly I was annoyed about the absolution of the certainty that Ynoa is more valuable than Kilby. In a vacuum, sure, probably. But reality is, there are so many question marks surrounding Ynoa including whether he makes the majors, whether he does so as a starter, whether he ever lives up to the quality of pitching people expect, whether this injury is the start of a trend. I can see a GM easily deciding the value of a good lefty reliever (reliever in the truest WAR value sense) as greater than the sum of all those question marks. It’s certainly NOT as cut and dry as DeJay suggests.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 20, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions

It certainly is not.

I think there are legitimate arguments to be made, really, for either. But I think the questions you pose about Ynoa aren’t as damning as maybe you think. Whether he makes the majors, makes it as a starter, whether he lives up to the quality of what people expect, are standard question marks surrounding any prospect until he actually physically pitches and proves himself on the big league level.

In the case of the injury, I’m willing to treat it with less severity simply because we know nothing of it.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 20, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions

If a great reliever

isn’t better than an average position player, that really does make a huge difference in value. The likelihood of reaching potential is a huge part of valuing a prospect. And yes, it’s part of every prospect, but at least a guy in AAA has proven something. A guy who hasn’t pitched hasn’t. All these make up questions are much bigger because a guy in AAA has shown not only the potential, but the a higher likelihood of sticking at the position. A starter in AAA is more likely to be a starter in the majors than a starter in A ball.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 20, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions

For me he would be behind Cahill and Anderson, plus Carter, but that's it.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 19, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions

There's no way Cahill stays in front of guys like Cardenas after having the season he had...

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions

I think there is a way...

by DrDoom on Oct 19, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions

Well, OK, I don't consider "willful blindness" to be an acceptable "way"

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions

I don't consider Cahill's season all that disastrous, nor Cardenas's all that great

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 19, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions

Trevor Cahill's 2009 is another one of those litmus tests for figuring out whether people know how to evaluate pitchers

If you think it wasn’t that bad, you’re doing it wrong.

As for Cardenas, I mean, he had like an .800 OPS from defense-first positions in AA and AAA as a 21-year-old. With a ton of doubles. How on earth is that not “great”?

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions

Cahill

PT: You can’t base EVERYTHING on numbers / stats. It’s called being human. Cahill wasn’t ready for the MLB.

by Colorado Fan on Oct 19, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions

well then

it was pretty disastrous that he got stuck there for a whole season. I forget which fANpost it was, but somewhere around the end of the season someone (danmerquery?) showed some reasonably convincing evidence that being rushed to the majors in 2009 could have seriously hurt Cahill’s development.

by colin on Oct 19, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions

There was a post at minorleagueball which indicated (albeit somewhat hamhandedly-- the analysis wasn't that great)

that players who are as bad as Cahill was in their rookie seasons almost never become successful MLB pitchers. And it’s worth noting that one of the rare exceptions, Roy Halladay, had to have his arsenal and mechanics rebuilt in the minor leagues before he could succeed.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions

oh god

I hope he turns out like Roy Halladay

by colin on Oct 19, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions

that was a terrible post on milb site

Of course most pitchers who pitch like that suck. You know why? Because they are crappy starters with a 5th starter ceiling. How many of them were 21 year old #1 organizational prospects? Most of those pitchers were pulled from a discount bin at walmart.

by throttle mathius on Oct 19, 2009 3:14 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

How many #1 organizational pitchers come up and pitch

like crappy starters with 5th starter ceilings?

It cuts both ways. He’s more likely to succeed than the average pitcher who puts up those numbers, but now that he’s put up those numbers he’s less likely to succeed than the average former top prospect.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions

still a different group all together.

Most #1 prospects aren’t rushed as he was. Let’s dip into the same barrel if we are going to make comparisons here. You yourself said he was rushed yet you seem to want to hold that against him. And I am willing to bet without any research at all that plenty of aces throughout the histort of baseball have had less than stellar rookie seasons.

by throttle mathius on Oct 19, 2009 4:17 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

That's just the wrong question

The correct question is the one he asked— how many players with bad rookie seasons become aces?

And the answer is “very very few.”

Players who are rushed perform worse than players who aren’t rushed, so yes, I’m “holding it against him.” This is player evaluation, not some kind of discussion of Rawlsian fairness doctrine.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Curious

But how much of that disaster rookie year results in GMs getting impatient causing the pitcher to be bounced around instead of letting them work through it? I’m not disagreeing with the reality that most don’t make it, but how much of it is self-fulfilling. Player A sucks ass his rookie year, GM A doesn’t think Player A can hack it, gives up on Player A, Player A amounts to nothing.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 19, 2009 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions

NO

Once again the question is how many ace potential prospects become aces after bad rookie seasons?

Or better yet how many prospects have bad rookie season but still fulfill there prospect expectations?

Not all prospects are the same and very few can even dream of becoming aces so asking how many players in general have bad rookie seasons and then become aces is in fact NOT the correct question at all.

by throttle mathius on Oct 19, 2009 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Furthermore there is the argument of...

overall pro experience. If Ynoa was rushed to the majors tomorrow and had a bad year would that drop his prospect status?

Conversely can’t we expect that Ynoa may be a little more ready for the majors by his 21 year old season due to 4 solid years of pro ball experience?

I find it hard to believe that you honestly see it as black and white as your argument suggests.

by throttle mathius on Oct 19, 2009 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions

You find it hard to believe that it's black and white that this season dropped Cahill's stock?

I seriously encourage you to ask around at sites where the narrative is not tainted by homerism, then. Ask Lookout Landing if they fear Cahill as much as they did eight months ago.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions

That wasn't the question

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Oct 19, 2009 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm not asking anyone else Paul

I am asking you and you have yet to actually answer a single question I have posed to you.

There are four of them right above this post, take a swing at at least one of them.

You know what I’m not even sure the data supports Cahill’s future success, all I know is that the methods in which you are making your determinations are flat out wrong.

by throttle mathius on Oct 19, 2009 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions

W/r/t your "four questions"

1. Can’t answer this without a copy of some old Baseball America handbooks, but I’m pretty sure the answer is “very few”;
2. I don’t even know what “prospect expectations” means;
3. Of course it would drop his prospect status, because players who are thrown into environments wildly beyond their abilities usually suffer permanent damage and even if he didn’t, it would cost him service time and options;
4. The answer is “yes,” but I just don’t see how this is relevant here.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 20, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions

Prospect expectations

“Midpoint”
reaching expectations

And it is more relevent than the post on the milb site.

Others who weren’t rushed may pitch better in their first year as a major leaguer but I dont see how he lost any luster.

He performed in the bigs like most expected he would wheen we all still considered him a top prospect.

Brett Andersons performance is an outlier and you seem to want to use it as the baseline for success.

by throttle mathius on Oct 20, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions

The only thing lost in my eyes is service time.

by throttle mathius on Oct 20, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions

Well if that's your definition,

then most players meet those expectations, because the midpoint (viz. median WAR) of most players’ expectations is “worthless.”

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 20, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions

Alright dude...

This is getting into semantics. Reasonable expectations would put Cahill as a good shot to be a number 3 possibly number 2 Pitcher.

Does that clear up what I meant?

by throttle mathius on Oct 20, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions

And if the midpoint of a #1 prospect is basically worthless

maybe the midpoint needs to be redefined.

by throttle mathius on Oct 20, 2009 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions

How do you "redefine" a midpoint?

It is what it is. Most prospects do squadoosh in major league baseball.

Even the AVERAGE VALUE of a top pitching prospect is like 4 WAR over his career. That’s including all of the big success stories. The average value of a top 10 pitching prospect is like “Kirk Saarloos’s career.”

Given that basic truth, I find it more than a little troubling for Cahill to go out there and actually pitch like Kirk Saarloos.

And this

He performed in the bigs like most expected he would wheen we all still considered him a top prospect.

is just flat out NOT TRUE. His strikeout rate was much worse than his prior track record would have predicted this season. Translate his line down to AAA (even AA) and it’s still ugly.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 20, 2009 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions

And to answer your question.

Maybe to the outside observer it did. But to me no. It didn’t shoot up like Anderson’s did, but it hasn’t dropped like Buck’s has either.

by throttle mathius on Oct 19, 2009 11:50 PM PDT up reply actions

I just enjoyed the fact that Oakland burned a year of service time from #3 Cahill's career for sub-replacement-Cahill

by Graham MacAree on Oct 20, 2009 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

bingo.

:(

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 20, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions

I know it's taboo and whatnot,

but you think a team that has to rely so heavily on market inefficiencies would keep a close eye on service clocks. I mean, an entire extra year before free agency is kind of a big deal.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 20, 2009 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm sure the A's management takes service time very seriously

by Graham MacAree on Oct 20, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions

No, actually, by all appearances, they don't take it into account at all

There’s no other way to explain the fact that both Anderson and Cahill spent the entire season in the majors. The alternative options in April 2009 were at least as good as they were in the short term, and waiting a month would have kept them in Oakland for potentially another season.

It should be pretty easy to see which franchises are manipulating service time by where the majority of Super Twos are. I can’t even offhand remember the last time the A’s had a Super Two.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 20, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Seems crazy but y'all know better than I do

by Graham MacAree on Oct 21, 2009 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions

Reading the Aroldis Chapman thread,

thinking about the A’s being “in the mix” with the Yankees and Red Sox, I ask myself: What on earth would persuade a hot young Cuban free agent to choose Oakland?

We’re not going to offer him more money. We’re not more likely to reach the playoffs. We don’t have one of the nicer facilities to work in.

The only thing I can think is that a 21-year-old might think the Oakland organization is a better place to get a chance to make the big leagues right away and not get held up in the minors. And then I think of Cahill.

I don’t know if anyone is actually strategizing that, but it’s at least conceivable as an argument against conserving service time.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 21, 2009 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions

not every prospects rise...

Is on a straight line slope.

by throttle mathius on Oct 19, 2009 4:21 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Why do you think I'm basing everything on numbers/stats?

His stuff sucked this season. His control was somewhere between mediocre and horrible depending on the exact night. If anything I think I’m the one who’s entitled to question whether the opposing side has actually watched him pitch this season.

He looked and pitched like a 5th starter. Obviously he could improve on that in future seasons, but it is, as I said, willful blindness to pretend that it doesn’t damage how good he’s likely to be.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Who has more trade value right now?

Cahill or Cardenas?

by DrDoom on Oct 19, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions

Reworded

Does anyone honestly believe Cardenas has higher trade value? Thus Cahill has to be the higher ranked prospect.

by DrDoom on Oct 19, 2009 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Well I certainly wouldn't trade Cardenas for him

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions

I believe Cardenas has higher value.

I’m not a Cahill hater, nor am I a big stats wonk, but based on what I’ve seen and heard, I think Cardenas is the more valuable commodity.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 19, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions

We have nothing tangible to really base it on

But I highly doubt Cardenas is worth even half as much as Cahill. I think perception is still that Cahill has ace potential based on the interviews of players and managers that I have seen… even Suzuki says he has the best stuff.

If this is indeed the case (and I am 95% sure it is), we should trade Cahill now if we think he will never pan out.

I think he will be fine. We didn’t help his development and we wasted a year of service time, but he should still end up a top 2 starter I think. It might take another year or two though.

I’m for starting him at AAA if we sign a vet pitcher. Let him fix the curve and then bring him back.

by DrDoom on Oct 20, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions

I agree with most of what you say.

Yes, there’s nothing tangible to base it on. My gut feeling is different from yours. I’d rather have Cardenas. If Cahill were a candidate in our poll, I’d put him somewhere between #3 and #4.

I wouldn’t really mind seeing Cahill traded right now. I’m not a huge fan of trading young guys in general, but if we got a decent package for him I’d be totally on board with that. I would certainly rather see Cahill traded for what I expect he would net than see Cardenas traded for what I expect he would net. That said, I don’t actually dislike Cahill. I think he could be good and I look forward to seeing him continue with the team.

I think whether he starts in AAA should depend on whether he can succeed in addressing his problems with his curve and arm slot consistency during the off-season and spring training. If he can, let him start in Oakland; if he can’t let him start in Sacramento.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 20, 2009 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions

His control obviously left a hell of a lot to be desired ...

but his stuff was still good — solid velocity with everything moving.

He basically skipped two levels and never learned how to pitch against guys that have some concept on how to control the strike zone.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Oct 19, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions

I basically agree with PT's statement,

but only in the ironic sense that I don’t think it’s PT’s finest scouting moment. Cahill did not pitch well but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t project well based on what we saw.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 19, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm not sure that's what PT is actually saying

I think all he’s saying his projection has been “damaged.” He still has the same potential as before, but the likelihood of him reaching that potential is statistically less probable than before.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 19, 2009 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions

If he's really junked his curveball for good, his potential is way less than it once was

Pitchers without quality breaking pitches top out at about #4 starters.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions

True

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 19, 2009 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Billy KOCH!!!

oh wait.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 19, 2009 9:06 PM PDT up reply actions

pitchers without good fastballs are the same, even with the best curveball in the league, or at least one of them

see: Zito, Barry

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 19, 2009 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions

That's not true.

If you sort all 2009 starting pitchers by fastball value according to Fangraphs, the bottom 10 in the league includes Ricky Nolasco and Adam Wainwright. Not far below them are AJ Burnett, Edwin Jackson, and Brett Anderson. All of their fastballs were hammered harder this year than Zito’s.

In Wainwright’s case, his fastball was a ridiculous 13.4 runs below average, yet his slider and curveball combined for 43 runs above average.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 19, 2009 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions

true.

that’s what i get for opening my big, fat, not thinking, too tired mouth. i know better, lol. but well, i said it. so it must be fact.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 19, 2009 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions

I was pretty surprised at the results too.

I figured it’d be more difficult to draw a conclusion, given that pitchers with bad fastballs would intuitively be pretty poor pitchers anyway. But hey, thank you, Adam Wainwright, for making it easier, I suppose.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 19, 2009 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions

well the only thing i can remember off the top of my head about this topic from Fangraphs

is that pitchers with faster fastballs generally have higher runs above average per fastball. But of course, that says nothing about their breaking pitches. So nvm this whole thing.

But I love me some Adam Wainwright. Too bad the Cards sucked monkey bananas and couldn’t do anything in the first round. And thank you Matt Holliday, for ruining both of my teams chances this year.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 20, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions

He definately needs that out pitch

I will be severly disappointed if the A’s let him start the season in the rotation with the same pitches he used at the end of this season. If he is using the curve again in the spring then keep him around, otherwise let him work on it in AAA.

by DrDoom on Oct 20, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions

Hey, we actually agree on something!

[golf clap]

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 20, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions

To be fair, in my opinion, he looked

like he could still develop into a Joe Blanton-type guy. And wasn’t that sort of a reasonable downside for him all along?

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 20, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions

Cahill was in the majors at 21. Cardenas struggled at AAA.

Having an .800 OPS isn’t great. It’s decent.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 19, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions

It's remarkable how removing 2/3 of my sentence transforms "great" to "decent"

isn’t it.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

:-)

I would have just gone with “from defense-first positions in AA and AAA as a 21-year-old.” as a reply though.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 19, 2009 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions

Now that you've done half of the analysis

How about doing the other half? Tell us how good he was at a premium defensive position. Then tell us how combined with a decent offensive showing, he should be valued as a whole?

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 19, 2009 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions

I said Capra

Probably not the most popular opinion, but I’m just really weary of his injuries, but the upside could prove me wrong.

I really like Capra, I think that once he gets a little better control, he will be a viable #2 option, but hopefully in the staff we produce a #5, great lefty specialist, or dominant SU man.

I'm the genius who said Chris Carter will slug .650 his rookie season.

by JamesCaprio on Oct 19, 2009 12:58 AM PDT reply actions

when i was talking of injuries I meant Doolittle.

I'm the genius who said Chris Carter will slug .650 his rookie season.

by JamesCaprio on Oct 19, 2009 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions

I don't get Capra at all. Can you elaborate on how he could become a #2 starter, like Braden 2009 for example?

What’s his swing-and-miss pitch that going to work at the high minors or majors?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 19, 2009 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions

Changeup

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions

Is his changeup as good as Braden's?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 19, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions

It's in that range, yes

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions

PT...

is that based on what you’ve read or have you seen him pitch?

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Oct 19, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Just based on reports

I don’t see much of Stockton…

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions

i wouldn't want to.

but i’ve had my fair share of it.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 19, 2009 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Don't let Braden hear you

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Oct 19, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm from that area code

Gotta represent.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 19, 2009 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions

Stockton has a lot of awesomeness,

if awesomeness equals great food, great secondhand stores, and funky old dives with classic video game machines.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 20, 2009 12:14 AM PDT up reply actions

Well it ain't San Francisco

and i didn’t actually grow up in Stocktown, but I do like the Ports ball park. Better than the old Modesto stadium my dad used to take me to.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Oct 20, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions

Your "range" must be very large then.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 19, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions

You must get weary pretty easily

since this is the first serious injury that I’m aware of in Sean Doolittle’s career.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions

It seems pretty serious though. He doesn't appear to have recovered even now.

I’m kinda worried about it.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 19, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions

You know, normally not.

I voted for Ynoa the last 2 spots. Doolittle just seems funny to me. Besides a great 80-some games, he has put up very poor numbers. I don’t know why but Doolittle just kind of scares me.

I'm the genius who said Chris Carter will slug .650 his rookie season.

by JamesCaprio on Oct 19, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions

People can worry about Ynoa (very little knowledge of injury, btw), but they can’t worry Doolittle? If he has a bum knee, he loses a lot of value on the defensive side of the ball.

by Colorado Fan on Oct 19, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Arm injuries are a lot more scary for a pitcher than a knee injury is to a position player.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 19, 2009 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't believe in worrying...

I feel that worrying about something negative happening makes it more likely to happen.

Preparing for the negative, and then projecting towards the positive is the better course.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 20, 2009 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions

Geren?

by VV A's fan on Oct 20, 2009 6:37 AM PDT up reply actions

If Geren thinks this way,

then more power to him.

However, in Mr. Geren’s case, he needs to prepare more for the negative and work on his in-game strategy.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 20, 2009 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions

gotta be dolittle

he shoulda been 8

by PL78 on Oct 19, 2009 1:29 AM PDT reply actions

Leon again

He’s got the tools to be a nice starter and pretty good stats at a reasonably high levels.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 19, 2009 1:35 AM PDT reply actions

Can you elaborate on the tools?

He seems average or worse across the board except for command, which seems very good. Am I missing something?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 19, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions

Doesn't really make much sense to talk about "tools" for pitchers

More logical to talk about pitches— he has an average fastball with above-average potential, an above-average slider with plus potential, and a decent changeup with average potential.

Assuming his pitches come along, that’s describing a #2 starter, or #1 if he can really sharpen up his control.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions

How will his "average fastball" become "above average"?

More movement? More velocity? Better command?

Those are the tools.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 19, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions

Brett Anderson is a good example.

He added significant velocity this year. If you’re young enough, and Leon is, there’s a good chance you haven’t realized your potential on any of those fronts, including velocity.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 19, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions

perhaps

but Brett Anderson is 6’2"/6’3", and had never done extensive conditioning. This gave him more capacity for improvement in his fastball. Leon is listed at 5"10".

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 19, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions

I think it's more likely that he improves movement and variety (eg adding cut or sink) than velocity, yeah

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm excited that he's young and has good control,

and I’m happy he’ll be winning his place on the list pretty soon here.

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 20, 2009 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions

I've been voting for him since #4

I’m just excited to click somebody else’s name for once.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 20, 2009 8:32 AM PDT up reply actions

just a note...

Kilby’s MLB stats are incorrect

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Oct 19, 2009 7:18 AM PDT reply actions

Kilby's stats

I’m sure someone will get these corrected soon :)

by Dalee on Oct 19, 2009 7:41 AM PDT reply actions

I voted Doolittle, and also considered Faustino, Henry, Stassi and Leon, but it wasn't that close

Hornbeck would be the next on my list of suggestions. Then Figueroa.

I like Kilby, but don’t see him as a real prospect, being a 27 year old rookie reliever in 2010. He seems interchangeable with Breslow or Blevins. If I squint I can sort of see Ross being a prospect. I don’t see Capra on this list for a while. I don’t see how he’s a better prospect than Godfrey, for example.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 19, 2009 9:34 AM PDT reply actions

9.4

6.7

Those are two very important numbers. The first one is Capra’s. The second one is Godfrey’s.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions

It's amusing that you're touting the high K, high BB guy and me the opposite when

usually it’s the other way around. The reason I’m skeptical that Capra can maintain his high K’s in the high minors is that his numbers seem to be based on deception. The high BB totals, the high FB% and reliance on the change-up bolster that hypothesis.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 19, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions

Eh, we'll cross that bridge when we get to it

Sometimes deception carries over to the high minors and majors, sometimes it doesn’t— but that doesn’t mean it’s valueless, just that the value has to be regressed somewhat.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 20, 2009 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions

I am skeptical of Capra; I think he probably won't be much good...

but being the 11th-15th prospect is not really the highest of praise. Comparing him to Godfrey is ridiculous… Also, 1)Hornbeck’s numbers are based on deception and a chang even more than Capra’s; and 2)relying on a change sounds great to me. Changeups are excellent pitches, especially for a lefty starter (and I like Hornbeck a lot for that reason.) I think (with not all that much confidence) that major league hitters will continue to swing at good changeups more than they will continue to swing at good breaking balls.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 20, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions

I can understand Kilby, cause of his age.

But how is Ross not a prospect? He’s a 22 yo who made it to AA in his first pro season, and after some early injuries he got better and better as the year wore on, improving his numbers after being promoted. In Midland he had a GO/AO of 3:1, a 3.54 FIP, a 1.06 WHIP and only allowed 3 HR in 66.1 IP. This is a small sample, and I wouldn’t expect him to maintain those numbers, but it shows Ross’ ceiling is considerably higher when he’s not injured. If he could ever straighten out his stride he could conceivably add velocity. After Simmons, he is probably the SP who will reach MLB soonest, and ceiling-wise I don’t see how Hornbeck, Capra or Godfrey have anything on him.

"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs

by Aufheben on Oct 19, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Goldstein's a big fan of Ross

He tabbed him as a breakout candidate for next year, if I’m not mistaken.

The question with him is how much value the A’s can get out of him before his arm explodes.

I do think people underrate the upside of those lefty breaking-ball pitchers, though. They can be quite nasty if they have plus offspeed pitches— although they do seem unusually prone to injuries (Bedard) and/or Steve Blass Disease (Rich Hill).

Godfrey I agree with, as he’s basically a 5th starter type.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions

I dunno about this:

“The question with him is how much value the A’s can get out of him before his arm explodes.”

That line of thought is essentially what allowed the Giants to draft Tim Lincecum at 10. Granted, if you pressed me on it, I’d probably be inclined to agree with you specifically concerning Ross, because I have seen that motion, and it is, in fact, cringe-worthy.

But there’s so, so much that we just don’t know about mechanics. A lot of of the conventional wisdom seems to be stuff that just sounds right and has been passed down by scouts. It reminds me of the arson investigators in the Todd Willingham case.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 20, 2009 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions

Sorry for the misunderstanding. I didn't mean to say Ross has worse stuff than Capra,

Hornbeck or Godfrey. He has pretty good, although not great pitches. My reservations about him are mostly about his violent delivery and the tiny sample size of his success. He probably would be better than those three if he made it to the majors and I would vote for him ahead of any of them. I just wouldn’t expect him to last that long.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 19, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions

No need to apologize - mostly I'm just high on Ross.

Its the only place I can afford to buy clothes. I’d probably have him after Doolittle, Leon, and FDLS, but I’d be receptive to arguments for him going before any of those guys. I think he gets a bit overlooked for his mechanics and mediocre first half. The mechanics are a legit concern, but you can’t argue with results.

"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs

by Aufheben on Oct 19, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions

I got high on Ross once...

the T-shirt I bought was giving off some sort of toxic fumes or something…

"Flea Markets aren't just for blind dates anymore!"- The Reverend Billy Lard

by Gaijin_Suketto on Oct 20, 2009 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions

Can we please remove the stats for the guys who have been selected already?

Just leave the hyperlinks for the guys already on the list. That’s a TON of scrolling down to get to the poll.

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 19, 2009 10:07 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs

Agreed.

Maybe keep the most recent one or two, but we don’t need the whole list.

Something that I would like, however, is if each FanPost includes a link back to the previous one. If that had been there in each one, someone could follow the links all the way back to #1.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 19, 2009 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions

ahem

look at the winning vote %

Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.

by Zonis on Oct 19, 2009 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Awesome!

I totally didn’t realize those were linked. I’ve been spending unnecessary effort scrolling through your user page to get to old ones….

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 20, 2009 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions

I voted Leon.

To do what he did in AA at such a young age is really impressive. Doolittle is my second choice, and who I’ll vote for at #11. There’s enough uncertainty about how he’ll turn out given this lost year that I have to give Leon the edge.

That said, he’s the guy I’d like to see stick at 1B if Barton can’t hack it. Having a glove that good at first is more useful than some realize. I’d rather 1B not be a dumping ground for Wallace or Carter; naturally, that depends a lot on how teachable Wallace and Carter turn out to be.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Oct 19, 2009 11:39 AM PDT reply actions

Been voting Leon since Round 4

looks like I’ll only have to vote for him 1 or 2 more times.

by bloodshot13 on Oct 19, 2009 12:05 PM PDT reply actions

1 more time

by Colorado Fan on Oct 19, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions

High five

I’ve quietly kept voting him since round 4 too.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 20, 2009 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions

I've reconsidered my vote on the last poll

I’m shifting it to Doolittle. Position players are just so much more reliable than pitchers— I mean, even an injured position player is probably less prone to future injury than a healthy pitcher. And I think he has more upside than meets the eye.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 19, 2009 12:49 PM PDT reply actions

I'm wondering what your opinion is

on Doolittle’s true defensive position.

I voted for him too, mainly based on the reasonable success level of the bat, but I have no idea where he fits in on the field.

I’d imagine that it settles down to RF/LF/1B but the variation in value between them (5 runs or so) is fairly significant.

by eastbayexpat on Oct 20, 2009 5:43 AM PDT up reply actions

Pretty sure he ultimately ends up in RF

I think he’ll be average or better overall unless the injuries get to him— maybe a little light on range but making up for it with arm #s.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 20, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions

Leon again

I’ve said enough the last 2 polls that I’ll shut up now.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Oct 19, 2009 1:07 PM PDT reply actions

Let's see here

(puts on blindfold and throws dart) I’m voting for Sean Doolittle.

by sirbed on Oct 19, 2009 2:01 PM PDT reply actions

I tried that and got Jay Payton....I think I did something wrong.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Oct 19, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions

by 9Custs on Oct 19, 2009 7:24 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

+1

if he can call on a pigeon to poo on the opposing pitcher… or carry a flyball past the fence

100% Athletics, 100% Baseball. 2009 Athletics, 40% Baseball.

by fruitattack on Oct 20, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Hey, if the Raiders can do it...

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 20, 2009 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
AzA (oak)	Rk	7	0-1	3.86	11.2	12	4	16	0	1.37

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
STO (oak)	A+	9	2-2	3.12	52	42	21	67	0	1.21
KAN (oak)	A	18	4-7	3.24	100	70	40	103	0	1.10

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
MID (oak)	AA	33	2-3	3.51	74.1	71	28	63	1	1.33

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
MID (oak)	AA	9	5-4	3.96	50	40	20	31	0	1.20
STO (oak)	A+	18	5-6	4.17	86.1	78	33	82	0	1.29

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
SAC (oak)	AAA	28	.267	.364	.448	4	14	0	17	5

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
VAN (oak)	SS	13	.286	.340	.367	0	8	0	3	4

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
OAK	MLB	4	0-0	0.00	5.2	2	1	7	0	0.53
SAC (oak)	AAA	45	4-2	2.13	63.1	40	24	77	2	1.01

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
USC	College	54	.374	.441	.569	4	32	16	46	19
STO (oak)	A+	4	.316	.350	.368	0	3	1	2	1

Upcomming Potential Prospects for Voting (no order):
Mattl Sulentic, OF	Anthony Recker, C	Shane Peterson, OF	Alex Valdez
Dustin Coleman, SS	Travis Banwart, SP	Matt Spencer, OF	Gregorio Petit, SS
	Graham Godfrey, SP	Robin Rosario, OF	Tommy Everidge, 1B
Clayton Mortensen, SP	Ronny Morla, SP	Wilfredo Solano	Joel Galarraga, C
Nino Leyja, 2B	Paul Smyth	Conner Crumbliss	Pedro Figueroade, SP
Rashun Dixon, CF	Julio Ramos	Daniel Straily
James Simmons, SP	Ian Krol, SP	Yusuf Carter	Ryan Ortiz, SP
Brett Hunter, SP	Anthony Huttenlocker	Carlos Hernandez, SP	Ben Hornbeck, SP
	Reynaldo Mateo	Tyler Ladendorff	Shawn Haviland, SP
Mickey Storey, SP	Chris Mederos	Jon Meloan	Josh Horton, SS
	Conner Hoehn	Corey Wimberly, UTL	Dan Thomas
Sam Demel, RP	Josh Leyland, C	Justin Souza	Andrew Carignan, RP
Jermaine Mitchell, CF	Jared Lansford, RP	Justin Marks	Jason Christian, 3B

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
SAC (oak)	AAA	44	.302	.365	.505	9	28	1	32	10
Mem (stl)	AAA	62	.293	.346	.423	6	19	0	22	11
SPR (stl)	AA	32	.281	.403	.437	5	16	0	22	5

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Athletics Nation -

2010 Community Prospect List - #10

Who is the A's #10 Prospect?

Fautino De Los Santos, SP

Anthony Capra, SP

Henry Alberto Rodriguez, RP

Brad Kilby, RP

Alex Arnold Leon, SP

Sean Doolittle, 1B/OF

Max Stassi, C

Tyson Ross, SP

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