2010 Community Prospect List - #9

Reply here to suggest players to be added next round

Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.

by Zonis on Oct 16, 2009 6:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Will do. Here are some possibilities:

FDLS, Matt Spencer, James Simmons, Shane Peterson, Nino Leyja, Rashun Dixon, Pedro Figueroa, Dusty Coleman.

I’m sure I’m missing some obvious ones, but that seems like a reasonable list for the next batch.

"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau

by King Richard on Oct 16, 2009 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess Ben Hornbeck could get on reasonably soon.

"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau

by King Richard on Oct 16, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why Leyja? Apart from his stint in Arizona he hasn't really shown much to deserve being considered this high.

by DeJay on Oct 16, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you seen how old he is...?

He held his own pretty decently, and he’s got dem tools!

"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau

by King Richard on Oct 16, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What tools would those be?

He doesn’t field well, doesn’t have a strong arm, not especially good speed, hasn’t shown any power and doesn’t have the type of body that projects for much more in the future.

I think he is an interesting prospect because he has shown some idea of how to control the plate at a young age, but tools are definitely not a strong point for Leyja.

by DiegoAsFan on Oct 16, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Somebody obviously hasn't seen Leyja's wrench.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 16, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

(blinks)

…..(begins to say something)….

….(stops)…..

….(blinks)….

Sock puppets have never been able to successfully attack castles. -Nevermoor

by Leopold Bloom on Oct 16, 2009 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

While most of this is probably true, I disagree that he hasn't shown any power

Home run power, sure, but if you’re looking around for teenagers who are going to show major home run power in professional baseball, you’re liable to be looking for a long time.

That said, I agree that this is way too early for him. He’s probably around 25-30 for me.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 16, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Figueroa

Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D

by cwhitman412 on Oct 16, 2009 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would suggest Henry Rodriguez be taken OFF, given that he managed the ol' goose egg last time

Quite a remarkable feat, actually.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 16, 2009 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's got one vote so far

by colin on Oct 16, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't be surprised if H-Rod is the next choice of

many of the Ynoa voters. Since Ynoa is likely to win this round, that’s exactly when H-Rod should go on the list.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 16, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

your wrong!

Sock puppets have never been able to successfully attack castles. -Nevermoor

by Leopold Bloom on Oct 16, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, definitely no H-Rod vote for me.

I’m the most ardent Ynoa support at this point (prospect #7, 8 or 9), and I would absolutely NOT vote for Rodriguez. Not for a while. Their upsides are very, very different at this point.

The intoxicating thing about Ynoa is that he has yet to put up any negative statline. Rodriguez has years worth of troubling portions of statlines – the very high walk rates in just about every stint of his career.

We can pretty much predict that Rodriguez, as an MLB player, will be a pitcher who struggles with control, based upon these previous years of information. We can make no such definitive negative predictions about Ynoa yet.

After one year of Ynoa stats, we will have a significantly clearer picture for him.

If he puts up a bad year next year – say, 45 IP, 55 walks, 20 strikeouts in Vancouver – then I’m content to rank him 20th next year at this time. Because by that point, he’s proven that he’s not on the Felix Hernandez teenage domination path. (Note: that does not mean that we would know after a year that he would never be successful; merely that he is not on Felix Hernandez/Justin Upton/Ken Griffey Jr./A-Rod career path. When you reach the majors as a teenager, it usually bodes well for your career).

If he puts up a Felix Hernandez age-17-18 season next year, then I will appropriately rocket him up to No. 3-4 or higher on our 2011 prospect list, depending upon who graduates amongst the big 3 (Carter/Wallace/Cardenas).

But the point is, H-Rod has no chance of ever inspiring a Felix Hernandez-at-age-18-level of optimism in us. Ynoa still one day could.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 16, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't think a arm injury shows that Ynoa isn't on that path?

To me any arm injury by any pitcher has to be treated as a huge hit to prospect value, especially a teenager. I don’t think I can vote for Ynoa yet.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, and I'd say that Ynoa has a better chance

of never throwing a major league pitch than he has of being a really good major league pitcher. Arm injuries are just that bad.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 16, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well....

Given the flameout rate of prospects and the distance Ynoa is from the majors, I would say that was true before his arm injury.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 16, 2009 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right, so adding an arm injury to a teenage pitching prospect is really really bad

since they didn’t have good odds to begin with.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wasn't the injury Mazzaro-isc?

It wasn’t a serious injury they just wanted to be safe? I thought I read/heard that somewhere?

I'm the genius who said Chris Carter will slug .650 his rookie season.

by JamesCaprio on Oct 17, 2009 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I care much more about scouting reports telling me he has good command

than I do about the lack of stats telling me he has bad command.

There are a zillion teenage sensations in the DR who couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with a beach ball. It doesn’t take a minor league statline to know this stuff.

Lack of a statline isn’t an excuse for wishcasting; it’s just a sign that you should pay more attention to scouting evaluations. In Ynoa’s case, of course, those are basically impeccable, but that’s not typically the case.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 16, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to know the track record of the scouts that have actually seen him pitch

before I’d put too much value in their opinion. Clearly Beane & Co. thought well enough of the reports to take a shot, but that doesn’t necessarily mean all that much. Being told that “sources” say scouts “in the know” blah blah, meaningless garble. Now, the scouts that found player A & B, player X & Y say they thought he was great, then hey, awesome. But without context, especially for us, it’s just a complicated game of telephone.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 16, 2009 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but the whole thing is that these scouts work for MLB clubs

they can’t go around willy nilly and talk about players on the record. There would be tampering problems as well as trade secrets issues.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't disagree with that

BUT, I don’t see it being entirely relevant to my point. If, for instance, they were at least known as the scouts who found or thought that players x, y & x were great 5 – 10 years ago as raw 16 year old kids (regardless of the scout’s name) that would at least have merit. Without even that, these guys could be people who get it right 10% of the time which conveniently still makes them the “best” at making this judgment. Sure they’re the best of the best, but not necessarily reliable. We don’t really have context for the scouts who say Ynoa is going to be great so all we have is “telephone” info fed to reporters fed to us. Makes the fact that he’s not played yet AND that no new scouting reports post-injury a major flaw in ranking him in the top-10 or top-anything for that matter.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 16, 2009 8:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well one can presume that the A's own scouts liked him enough

and were convincing enough to get Beane to sign him to a $4m contract, which was basically unprecedented.

We can be skeptical about what we’ve read all we want, but the actions of the Oakland front office generally speak for themselves.

we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.

by walk off bunt on Oct 18, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Complete nonsense

Why? I’ve been an Ynoa voter since round 7, and I’d be fine with leaving Henry off the ballot for a bit yet. They are nothing alike.

by Faust on Oct 16, 2009 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, OK, so maybe I was wrong about the Ynoa-HRod thing.

Then again, as of now there are 93 votes for Ynoa. Two of you have said you’re definitely not voting for H-Rod any time soon, but it’s still possible plenty of others would.

That said, I withdraw any objection I had to H-Rod being removed from the list.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 16, 2009 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only reason you think Ynoa and Rodriguez are correlated

is that the one commenter on this site who actually thinks Rodriguez is worth a damn also happens to be supporting Ynoa. I’m guessing most of Ynoa’s supporters have actually, you know, taken a look at Rodriguez’s statlines for the last two seasons.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 1:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, the reason I was thinking they were correlated

is because I imagine that roughly half the voters in this poll are casual voters not especially familiar with the system, and I imagined that among them are many who think “Oh, Ynoa! He’s that superstud Dominican pitcher I heard about”; who remember little if anything about Corey Brown, Sean Doolittle, or Arnold Leon; and who will say, “Oh, Henry Rodriguez! He’s that guy who throws really really hard!”

Now I have already acknowledged that this was a half-baked thought which I never really intended to push as an argument and I have accordingly backed down from it. It is not true, however, that “the only reason” I thought that was because of one certain commenter you refer to. In fact, I don’t even know who you’re talking about.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 17, 2009 1:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or Peter Gammons said Henriguez is teh awesome!!!!!!

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 17, 2009 2:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kiss of Death

(waiting for H-Rod’s arm to fall off)

PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves

by adragon on Oct 17, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

{waiting for us to draft H-Rod's younger brother "Blake-Rod,"

only to watch him, at age 26, put up a line of 25IP, 48hits, 22ER, 20BB, 8K in rookie ball.}

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 17, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But throws 110 MPH regularly?

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 17, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah. Just takes him two pitches.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 17, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think your walk projection is woefully low :)

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 18, 2009 7:52 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

FDLS, Demel, Spencer, Simmons, Godfrey

by redtopcowboy on Oct 16, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

DLS, Hornbeck, Simmons

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 16, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For the "upcoming potential prospects" list

Kenny Smalley should be added.

"When you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout, and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done." -Matt Stairs

by Aufheben on Oct 16, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to see Clayton Mortenson added

He had a rough go of it in his MLB debut but he pitched well before the trade and I think once he settles in he will start getting a few more K’s and become a useful pitcher. I still think he has the upside to be a mid rotation starter and is basically MLB ready.

by DiegoAsFan on Oct 17, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

DLS, Demel, Simmons, Coleman

by DeJay on Oct 18, 2009 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow that's a lot of scrolling to get down to the poll and the comments.

Perhaps time to remove the stat blurbs for the guys who have already been voted into the list?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 16, 2009 8:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

Last time i checked the other poll, Ynoa was winning, late voters?

by jahs34 on Oct 16, 2009 9:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Voted Ynoa again

I think it is too early for Kilby IMHO

by DeJay on Oct 16, 2009 9:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Does Kilby qualify as a prospect still?

They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick

by mikev on Oct 16, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

The limit is 50 IP. Based on that, John Meloan, Henry Rodriguez, Brad Kilby, Chad Reineke, Jeff Gray, and Clay Mortensen are still prospects.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 16, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is also a limit on service time which rules out relievers who spend half the season in the majors

Kilby is probably still eligible but I’d have to check

by DeJay on Oct 16, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

he was promoted on September 1

and it was his first time in the majors, so he’s still eligible.

by colin on Oct 16, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was really interested as to where Ynoa would come off the board. Looks like this might be his spot.

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Oct 16, 2009 9:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yup

I voted for Ynoa here. Too much potential to let him fall out of the top 10. Personally I voted for him over Donaldson. When you think that Ynoa is throwing 94-97 @ age 17/18 and Anderson, who touches 97 now, was cruising around 91 out of HS. Assuming injuries and control problems don’t come into effect, I think Ynoa will be a stud. I just can’t wait for the Anderson/Ynoa/Cahill/Carter/Wallace dynasty.

I'm the genius who said Chris Carter will slug .650 his rookie season.

by JamesCaprio on Oct 17, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

When Ynoa is only in his age-23 season

Anderson and Cahill will already be in the first year of their free agent contracts. And assuming Carter and Wallace use a full year of service time in 2010, they’ll be impending free agents.

Ynoa is part of the next “dynasty”, not this upcoming one.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 17, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't believe that.

I really think that we will sign those guys. Lew Wolfe has made it clear he is willing to spend the money to keep players.

I'm the genius who said Chris Carter will slug .650 his rookie season.

by JamesCaprio on Oct 17, 2009 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't say if they were leaving Oakland or not.

Just that those two pitchers would be in their free agent contracts, wherever that may be.

Of course, if Ynoa hits the majors earlier, say, at 21, we’d have a different story.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 17, 2009 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

or, if Ynoa does somehow manage

to take Felix’s path to the majors, then we are all set
< /rose colored glasses >

by colin on Oct 18, 2009 7:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Between Doolittle and Leon for me

I picked Doolittle. Good improvement on BB rates from AA to AAA. K rates are down 5 percentage points. BABIP is low compared to historical so there could be some upside here.

Don’t know the park effects from MWL to PCL but assuming they’re relatively similar (big assumption, I know), it could mean that Doolittle has regained some of his lost AA power.

Upside is difficult for me to discern. I don’t know what his true power is, nor do I know his true defensive position whether RF/LF/1B. But the fact that he is showing “old player skills” at a relatively young age leads me to believe he might be able to hit the majors and stick.

by eastbayexpat on Oct 16, 2009 10:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I went with Doolittle also

PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves

by adragon on Oct 17, 2009 12:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Odd that there's only two non-pitchers

on this list this time around.

I noticed last year, and again this year, that I almost never vote for pitchers. Not because I don’t like them at all, but because the community at large seems to like them more than I do, so even though there’s usually a pitcher who is on my horizon to come up pretty soon, he invariably ends up winning an earlier round before I get a chance to vote for him.

Possibly that will change soon, if the position players keep hogging all the spots. If our top eight is any measure, there really is NSTAAPP

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 16, 2009 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

To which I reply,

If minor league pitchers aren’t “prospects,” what are they? TINSTAAPP is a flawed acronym. Prospects are exactly what touted minor league pitchers are, no more no less.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 16, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That acronym is just an inside joke...

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 16, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really? Seriously, it's a joke?

I thought it was supposed to be a way of saying young pitchers are too fragile/unpredictable to be in anyone’s plans.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 16, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Step 1: Google.

Step 2:
Result 1: It’s “”http://digamma.net/btfwiki/TINSTAAPP" >cute"
Result 2: Serious look at idea, but joke about meth.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 16, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought step 1 was OSH

The media iz confoosing me!!!!!!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 16, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The joke is relating to the economics aphorism

that there is no such thing as a free lunch.

No one really believes that pitching prospects don’t exist; it’s just a clever way of saying they’re less predictable than hitting prospects.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 16, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No such thing as a free lunch?

Ooh — I should probably go back to that restaurant.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 16, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitchers are usually overrated on prospect lists

These lists never discount enough for injury risk (a cynic might say that they never discount enough for risk, period), and pitchers have much worse injury risks than position players do.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 16, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would argue that discounting for risk is one of the greatest weaknesses of these kinds of lists

Especially when you have a fair number of voters who espouse an upside only paradigm and no one who is only voting for AAA players with the highest likelihood of being worth anything.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

being "worth a little" is worthless

because of how replaceable “worth a little” is.

I realize that we fundamentally disagree on this. But I would disagree that I have an upside-only paradigm.

I would like to complement you, however, on being a very strong debater with an impressive vocabulary. Your debate experience shines through in your posts.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 16, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you. I appreciate that.

I respect your opinion despite disagreeing with your method of prospect evaluations because your conclusions logically follow your paradigm.

I think that voting Ynoa on with the premise that he is going to produce the lines that you have suggested next year is suspect however. Last year we were voting on the premise that he would do that this year. I would submit that this year’s arm injury was worse than if he hadn’t had a good year statistically, as it decreases dramatically his chances of ever playing (and I think that replacement level for hitters especially and starters is worse than you think it is) and it also likely decreases his ceiling somewhat. I think that ignoring that evidence means that you are participating in wish casting.

The other thing that I think you undervalue is the ability for above average prospects to become elite guys. Looking at the WAR leader boards there are very very few guys that were “elite” dreamboat scouting reports and a lot of elite guys that people slept on. If the translation from elite scouting reports to elite production was more consistent then I would be much more inclined to use your upside paradigm.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

you know you are making a good argument...

when the guy you are pwning (me) gives you a rec. :)

Very good points dfa.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 16, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you

I don’t think that Im pwning you. The top of the prospect chart for me is those players who have both high ceilings and probabilities of being good players in the MLB. Then when you move away from that point the balance of probability and ceiling become more difficult. Like I said before, you have shown a paradigm that values WAR concentration more than I do, and you have followed that consistently. Slight differences in evaluation of probability or ceiling at this point can lead to disparate evaluations.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Says Mr. Zero-discount-on-future-wins

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 16, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

whoa whoa whoa

Discounting future wins is extremely dubious imo, and not in the least inconsistent with saying people don’t discount enough for risk.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 16, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only by completely ignoring risk (among other issues) can you justify a zero discount on future wins

Pitcher A is 20 and promising. We can expect him to be 3 WAR / year for as long as we control him.

If you ignore risk, that makes him worth 18 WAR (assuming no super-2). That number, however, can only be used without discount if you assume there is, literally, a zero-chance that he will be injured over the six seasons.

There are, of course, other problems with the zero-discount theory but that’s a directly relevant (and obvious) one.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 16, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

risk is a separate issue from discounting future wins

If Pitcher A gets injured, then that means 0 future wins in that scenario. The way to do it is to estimate expected value taking risk into account, so maybe (to unrealistically simplify) Pitcher A has 30% odds of 4 WAR/season, 30% odds of 2 WAR per season and 40% odds of 0 WAR per season, then the player is a 1.8 WAR per season player if the estimate is correct. This is the correct approach, discounting is a very dubious approach.

Risk and discounting future wins are entirely separate concepts. Discounting is saying 1win in 2010>1 win in 2011>1 win in 2012, etc., and the propriety of that turns on subjective psychology more than anything about any particular players.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 16, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Discounting the future value of wins is a totally separate issue from discounting the future productivity of players.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 16, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's either meaningless or deceptive

Because you don’t KNOW anywhere near as much about one win in, say, 2030 as you do about one in 2010.

To say they are equally important therefore, is one of two things:
a) A philosophical argument that is completely irrelevant to any sort of contemporary analysis
b) A way to avoid talking about uncertainty through hand waving.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 16, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

At this point it is more likely that a 2030 win would be more valuable

because we aren’t contending next year. So are you going to appreciate the value of future wins?

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not saying future wins should be discounted 100%

I am, however, saying that I would much rather have a player’s wins in 2010 than in 2030.

I would not trade a player projected to produce 1 WAR next year for a player projected to produce 1.5 WAR in 2015.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 16, 2009 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would just apply the straight standard discount rate.

but hey thats just me.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

why?

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 16, 2009 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because while a win isn't really money per se they act the same way in terms of my desires

I would prefer the A’s win the WS in 2010 rather than 2030 because I/humanity isn’t patient.

In economics we apply the discount rate to non pecuniary goods as well as cash.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that's really even true of your desires

For you, 2010 is better than 2030 because you might die or not be an A’s fan anymore, but if you were just as much of an A’s fan it wouldn’t make any difference except to the extent that you’d have better memories. Patience has nothing to do with it, and in fact having an asymmetrical time preference like that is just irrational. If you look back, there’s no reason to think you would have been happier/had a better fan experience if the A’s had won the WS in 1988 instead of 1989 simply because 1988 was earlier. The kids in the experiments who take the one candy today instead of the five tomorrow are making a mistake about their true preferences…

The discount rate in economics corresponds to the real interest rate. To the extent that there is a real interest rate in terms of wins, we have no idea what it would be…

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 16, 2009 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And was is the "straight standard discount rate"?

No such thing exists generally, and certainly with “wins” as the relevant unit. If it’s some number like 5% or whatever, or what the CBO of the federal reserve uses, what conceivable relevance does that have to present and future wins in baseball?

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 16, 2009 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its the real interest rate compounded over time

Im talking about straight econ theory, not really policy (CBO/Fed) here.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right, and what is the real interest rate for wins; how would you calculate it?

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 16, 2009 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its the same as the real interest rate for money.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I find it weird that a non-monetary

discount rate is dependent on U.S. monetary policy. So when the Fed is busy holding down interest rates in order to allow us to live beyond our means for another decade, value of future baseball games is barely discounted at all. But some time in the next decade when the whole scheme collapses and we face Weimaresque hyperinflation suddenly they’re discounted ten times as much?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 16, 2009 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not really

were looking at the real interest rate so you remove inflation first.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 9:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

US/world monetary policy is a large factor in the real interest rate

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 17, 2009 12:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This isn't the place to discuss

monetary policy, since I’m bound to go political and/or gonzo.

But I’m not talking about inflation. I’m talking about the fact that the “real” interest rate is essentially set by the Fed.

The interest rate is a price like any other price, and when it is set by government price controls, the market signal is lost. We have no clue what credit is truly valued at, because the heavy hand of the U.S. Treasury dominates the market.

The federal funds rate was 8% in 1990. Now it’s between 0% and 0.25%. So you’re saying today we shouldn’t discount future wins but 20 years ago we should have? Where’s the logic in that?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 17, 2009 1:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well the gains from said win are worth less compared to future if the rate of return on safe investments is 0 or -

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 17, 2009 2:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm in favor of discounting future wins

Ultimately the reason for doing so is similar to the reason for discounting future money, but I just think tying to any actual money rate is needlessly indirect.

The reasons for discounting future wins are essentially the ones mikeA alluded to above:

For you, 2010 is better than 2030 because you might die or not be an A’s fan anymore […]

Mike seemed a bit dismissive of these considerations, but they’re quite relevant. It’s not just that I might die or lose interest; things change. There are just so many variables: The team might become radically different, baseball might become radically different, society might collapse, something way more cool might come along, etc, etc, etc.

I’m pretty sure I’m going to care about what the A’s do in 2010 and 2011. I’m quite a bit less sure about 2030. As a younger person, you may have a longer horizon (just as with investing).

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 17, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clearly everyone would value 2010 over 2030 for those reasons

but it’s hard to imagine any decisions that have any impact on 2030 anyway.

I think most people here will wind up caring more about 2012-13 than they care about 2010 because the team will likely be better, which overall will outweigh whatever number of fans lose interest. But that just illustrates why it’s a flawed concept: every fan has a different explicit or implicit preference order of various seasons (not to mention people who aren’t even fans yet,), which leaves us at sea as far as trying to generalize all those different preferences into some rule like 2011 is a bit less important that 2010, etc.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 17, 2009 7:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That makes absolutely no sense....

Not only do they have nothing to do with each other, the real interest rate is not constant, so how much we discount wins is based on the rate of long term economic growth… This is why it is ridiculous to discount future wins….

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 17, 2009 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand how such a player could possibly exist,

so it’s difficult for me to even conceptualize what that trade would look like, but the theory of making that trade is rock solid.

Actually, if you could predict future wins that easily, it would probably even be worth it for a small-market team like the A’s to trade current wins at LESS than a 1 to 1 ratio, because you could line up a plus player at every position for some future point in time and basically guarantee the playoffs in that season. In the real world, of course, that’s totally implausible.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 16, 2009 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you assuming that team

could find a way to keep their 1 WAR guy now and manufacture, pick up or buy a 1.5 WAR player similar, if not identical, to the one you would be getting. If we were talking the difference between 2010 & 2011/2012, sure, makes a lot of sense (assuming the predictive value is there), but 20 years is a lot time to work with.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 16, 2009 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm flummoxed by this argument

You just described your theory as implausible as an attack on my point.

Since you brought up the Holliday trade, one of the points against it is that CarGon will produce X WAR/year pre-free agency (so 2013-14 instead of 2015). That implies that you’re calculating his 2013/2014 WAR.

Now you say calculating future WAR is rock solid in theory but totally implausible in the real world (which is basically what I was getting at when I criticized zero discount as “A philosophical argument that is completely irrelevant to any sort of contemporary analysis”)

Is it fair to say that we now agree that presenting future WAR at a zero discount in contemporary analysis is totally implausible, or am I misreading you?

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 16, 2009 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where are you getting this crap?

I said that I have difficulty envisioning a player who you could, right now, say “will show up in 2015 and produce exactly 1.5 WAR.”

Of course you can predict that from players who are already in the majors… there are probably 50 players about whom one could say “will produce about 1.5 WAR on average in 2015.” Those players also won’t be under team control in 2015 and would be under team control before 2015. If one were to trade for one of them it would not accomplish the objective of “trading 1 WAR in 2009 for exactly 1.5 WAR in 2015.”

The only possible way one could do that is to trade for some sort of prospect who is simultaneously “exactly six years away from the majors” and “guaranteed to be a slightly below average player when he gets to the majors for his first season, then become worthless thereafter.” The very concept of such a prospect existing is preposterous.

Where you’re getting the rest of this, I have no idea, but it bears zero relation to anything I’ve ever said anywhere.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If it makes it easier for you

I’ll go with:

Trading 4 WAR now for a 1 WAR player from 2010 – 2015 (i.e. a major league ready player whose rookie season is 2010). Does that make you happier? It’s still the same ratio, it still has progressively less certainty going forward, and I still think the wins at the end need to be discounted.

As for the rest of your post, might I suggest a deep breath?

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 17, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Am I understanding this right?

Are you talking about a guy who rates 1 WAR in each of six seasons, against a guy who gets 4 WAR in one season?

If so, I say the 4 WAR guy is way better. It’s always better to pack your WAR into a single roster spot. This is the same idea as trading one 4 WAR guy for six 1 WAR guys.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 17, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The reason why that is probably a bad idea

has everything to do with the value of a roster spot and nothing whatsoever to do with the value of wins in 2010 vis a vis wins in 2015. It would not be any better of an idea if the concentrated 4 WAR came in 2015 and not 2010.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have literally no idea what you're talking about

Unless baseball changes the number of games in a season or stops existing, both of which are wildly unlikely to happen, I know that a win is a positive result in one of 162 games of a baseball season.

There are two reasons why wins are valuable— they entertain your fanbase and they comprise parts of what you need for a postseason appearance. Those have certain values in terms of what they bring in in revenue. You can then reinvest that revenue to obtain a rate of return, which does make wins in the present slightly more valuable than wins in the future.

But it’s just not that much. If you have a 5% rate of return after inflation, which is solid, a win in 2009 is about 34% more valuable than a win in 2015 in a vacuum. That’s just not that relevant. So Carlos Gonzalez’s predicted 3 WAR (or whatever) in 2015 are really only worth about 2.25? Well, here’s the thing— even when you apply that discount rate, the Holliday trade (to return to the topic that brought this issue up) is still an utter train wreck.

It rarely makes a significant impact on the predicted outcome of a trade. And it has nothing whatsoever to do with the risk of a player losing productivity due to injury, which is pretty constant until he hits age 30 or so, by which point he’s rarely still cost-controlled.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 16, 2009 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But that's just not true

The risk of losing CarGon’s 2015 production is MUCH higher than the risk of losing Holliday’s 2009 production, even if the risk of losing their 2009 productions is exactly equal.

Also, CarGon’s 2015 production is much easier to replace in early 2009 than Holliday’s 2009 production.

I’m not saying the trade was good, or bad, just that projecting a WAR level for CarGon and multiplying by 6 (with or without a 5% reduction) is a deeply flawed method. Injuries are one example, ability to replace is another example, inflation (I suppose) is a particularly weak straw man example.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 16, 2009 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The risk of losing his production is NOT greater in 2015

Why the hell would it be greater in 2015? He’s not suffering from some kind of degenerative disease.

Talent regression to the mean is already factored into the projections. You’re essentially double-counting it.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 16, 2009 7:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Walk with me

1. Players have an X% chance of a career ending event each season (injury, yips, whatever).

2. Given 1, players have odds greater than X% of a career ending event over more than one season.

3. The odds that a player will be out of baseball (0 WAR) in 2015 is substantially larger than in 2009.

Is there some flaw in this logic that I’m missing?

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 16, 2009 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Career-ending events are not really that common for position players in their first six years

So it’s not really substantially larger.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 17, 2009 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only baseball position player I'm aware of to suffer a genuinely career-ending injury in recent years

is Juan Encarnacion, and he wasn’t even still under team control at the time.

The chances of it are vanishingly unlikely.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bo Jackson isn't recent but would fall in the same category.

Adam Piatt’s menegitis destroyed his career, but im not sure if you are counting that.

Kirby Puckett’s glaucoma might count.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 17, 2009 2:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's more to it than just injuries

And you’re falling prey to selection bias since you won’t remember players that did have career-ending events early in their careers.

Just to counter your Encarnacion example off the top of my head.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 17, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take your selection bias and raise you one

You think Jeremy Brown quits baseball for family reasons if he’s making $10M a year?

The rate at which players quit baseball is strongly inversely correlated with their actual skills. Brown would probably have had a decent career as a backup, but he was better than 95% of the guys who quit pro ball.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Listen

Prove to me that the odds a player stops playing baseball within their first six years are “vanishingly small” without resorting to selection bias and I’ll abandon this point.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 17, 2009 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I looked at a list of every player with 400 plate appearances in 2004

The list is something like 270 players long. Here’s the complete list of players who had 400 PA and

a. Failed to amass 6 years of service time in their careers,
b. Played no meaningful (>20)number of games this season, and
c. were 30 years old or younger in the last season when they played a meaningful number of games.

Sean Burroughs
Ken Harvey
Larry Bigbie
Jose Castillo

I mean, this is junk. As far as I can tell there is not a single reasonably young pre-free agency player of any consequence from 2004 who has had his career ended by an injury.

Ken Harvey is about the closest you can get, and while he did suffer an injury, a. he wasn’t very good before the injury, and b. he kept playing after it.

The other guys here just fell off the map because people stopped giving them playing time (so it’s fairly safe to say they would not have amassed any more value had they not retired).

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 18, 2009 1:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

That surprises me, but it appears I was wrong.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 18, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

why is it easier to replace? what does that even mean?

I don’t think that concept is even intelligible…

Leaving aside the actual risk of injury/collapse and how high it is, the point is that it should be part of the projection, and the projection should just be the average of range of outcomes for players of any given type.

What could be a more flawed method than applying some sort of discount rate? How would decide on a discount rate that was not completely arbitrary?

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 16, 2009 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't like the discount rate. That's all PT

Replacement means there is an opportunity cost in having a player on your roster.

As an analogy, if you are offered $25,000 for a year’s work or $10,000 for a month’s work you might take the latter deal because you still have eleven months to work a different job.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 16, 2009 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You were criticizing him for saying there should be a 0 discount rate....

and that analogy is lost on me.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 17, 2009 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I misunderstood

I thought you meant the money rate thing. I don’t know how to set a discount rate, and I don’t have the math/time/data to try to analyze it. I don’t think it would be impossible.

The point of the analogy is that it might be better to take less overall money in that scenario because the opportunity cost of the other deal (being employed for a full year with no chance to seek other jobs) matters. My point is not that one of those deals is better, but that there has to be a line. For example, I imagine everyone here would take the smaller deal if you replace $10,000 with $24,000. That way you’re only $1,000 short but you have 11 other months to make more money.

In the imaginary Holliday-for-CarGon trade (since that’s where we’ve gone upthread), you have one player with a large 2009 WAR who is then gone. You have another who has a much smaller 2009 WAR but also several more years of WAR.

One way to analyze that would be to add up all the years of WAR for CarGon and, if that number is larger than Holliday’s 2009 WAR – which it will be – proclaim that there’s a bad trade. I object, for several reasons. The one we are talking about here, though, is that the analysis abstracts out the fact that in order to get the CarGon production you have to let him play. Just because “replacement level” is given that name doesn’t mean that the A’s replace him with a “replacement level” player. In fact, few teams ever do.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 17, 2009 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Once again, this issue of concentrated vs. dispersed WAR

has nothing at all to do with value of present wins vs. future wins.

It would apply equally to the question of whether to trade Albert Pujols for five league-average players (10 WAR vs. 8, in theory) who are paid the same total salary and whose contracts expire at the same time. There’s no issue of present wins vs. future wins at all there. The wins are coming in the same seasons.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

1. I don’t think that analogy really holds at all.
2. What PT said. 6 WAR in any one year is a lot more valuable than six 1 WAR years, which has nothing to do with when the years are.
3. As to the last paragraph: The non-Holliday LF would not be a replacement level player either, and in any case the opportunity cost type of argument doesn’t make sense because there’s still some cost involved in getting a better-than-replacement player, which cost could be used elsewhere if the team didn’t need to worry about Cargon’s position.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 17, 2009 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Expanding on 2

I would trade a guy who is projected at 1 WAR for the next six years for a guy who is projected at 6 WAR in 2015 in a second (although it’s hard to imagine a real trade like that.)

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 17, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Same

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 18, 2009 1:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I certainly agree with #2

And talking it out suggests that a lot of my problem with discounting values is dislike for that sort of analysis (which I think people were guilty of during the holliday trade).

I think my criticism came out as an attack on discounting future wins, when really it was #2 (which we all seem to agree upon here).

As to #3, that’s true but it matters a lot less.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 17, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wins aren't money so they aren't going to appreciate a predictable rate

For revenue, I’d imagine that each marginal win from 60-80 or so has very very little effect on revenue, and wins 81-100 or so will be much more valuable, and of course the win that gets the team to the playoffs is hugely valuable. All else equal, earlier wins will be more valuable revenue-wise than later wins, but the earlier/later effect will be overwhelmed by the contention/no-contention effect if you’re trying to divide wins among different seasons.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 16, 2009 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely

No disagreement with any of this.

It’s just hard to tell a priori whether you’ll be contending 6 years from the present, so assuming that wins 6 years down the line have a constant value is a decent assumption.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 16, 2009 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why do you imagine this?

I’d imagine that each marginal win from 60-80 or so has very very little effect on revenue.

There is a big difference between a mediocre team and an atrocious team. Earlier in this decade Beane made comments to the effect that a really bad record can cause fans to drop their baseball habit altogether and not come back, and thus a bad season can hurt just as much as a good season can help. Do you think that’s no longer true?

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 16, 2009 8:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you have any study to back that up?

I mean the niners have been terrible for a long long time but I came back this year because I thought they would win.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty sure they're still terrible

In a non-joke of a division they’d be like 1-4.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 12:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh no I know

but they are more interesting. I watched the Cardinals game and said that the Niners were playing horrible football, When my mom asked how I would know since I hadn’t watched football in like 5 years, I replied that they look a lot like the last couple Niners teams and I remember what bad football looks like.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 17, 2009 2:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They're absolutely not terrible

They’ve got a very good defense and a very bad offense. They aren’t a playoff team in most divisions, but they might well be in the NFC West.

In any case, that has nothing to do with DFA’s thinking they would win since they are in the NFC West.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Oct 17, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

To back what up?

I’m not the one making an assertion here. People are saying that marginal wins 81-100 are extremely valuable while marginal wins 60-80 are worth nearly nothing. This is neither demonstrated nor intuitive.

I’m just saying, “huh? how do you figure?”. Now you’re asking me to provide evidence for my skepticism of an unsupported assertion, and all you offer in exchange is an anecdotal study with a sample size of one.

I’m not dogmatic about this. If marginal wins 60-80 really are valueless, I’m ready to be persuaded, but no one is offering any rationale that I can see. And I’m not going to accept it just because all the smart kids say it’s true.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 17, 2009 1:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

awww you think we are the smart kids? thats sweet.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 17, 2009 2:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vincent Gennaro

Economist, author of a book which I believe is titled, “Diamond Dollars” or “The Economics of Winning in Baseball.”

He has researched at length the point that dfa/PT are asserting, and Gennaro would argue that yes, marginal wins at the playoff threshold are far more valuable. Nate Silver, back when he wrote for BPro, wrote on this concept extensively as well.

Silver’s archives might be behind the pay wall, but Gennaro has written a bunch of good excerpted stuff from his book for Hardball Times.

The Cliff’s Notes:
When you make the playoffs, it can provide your team a windfall of as much as $50M(!), thanks to playoff ticket sales and future season-ticket sales from the goodwill and excitement generated from the previous playoff run. That $50M figure is dependent upon market, recent previous playoff appearances, etc.; I think his low-end playoff windfall was $25M.

The point being, extra wins close to the playoff threshold push a team closer to that all-important playoff financial windfall. Moving from 60 to 65 wins offers no such windfall.

The market is reflecting this, too – we’re seeing less teams at the bottom of the contending wheel who are willing to spend big money on free agents, because are getting smarter and they are fully aware of this marginal win value concept.

But again, Nate Silver and Vince Gennaro are two good guys to read who would back dfa’s and Paul’s assertions.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 17, 2009 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks, NSJ

I’ll try to track these down and see what data they’re looking at. I tend to be even more skeptical than usual of any baseball studies involving profits, since reliable financial data is 100 times harder to find than reliable player-performance data, but I’ve always liked Silver’s work.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 17, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Silver was worth the price of subscription all by himself for me.

Now that he devotes his time elsewhere, I no longer read BPro. But anything really useful, like a Goldstein Top 11 list, usually gets cross-posted on one of my other go-to sites anyway.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 17, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just guessing, I don't really know

Making the playoffs is a financial boon in itself, and I would assume that average to playoff-contending is more beneficial than bad to average, but that could be wrong. I’m pretty sure that your type of “every game counts the same” fanhood is very much a minority type of fanhood (at least here it is), but I could be wrong about that too…

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 17, 2009 12:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Baseball Between the Numbers studied this and found that your position is basically the correct one

There is a huge uptick in the value of wins between about 85 and 95 wins. Postseason appearances are worth big bucks.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 12:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you know where I can find that study?

I’d like to read that.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 17, 2009 1:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its Baseball Prospectus' book

I couldn’t remember where I read what mikeA was arguing but upon its mention Nate Silver (though it could be another BP author) I believe did something on the value of a marginal win during the season in addition to calculating the value of the playoffs.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 17, 2009 2:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is an example of why I need to read all the comments...

before bothering to write a 10-minute reply (see above). :)

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 17, 2009 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you did a far better job explaining it that I did.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 17, 2009 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

thank you sir

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 17, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I had the exact same issue.

I wrote the comment above that you responded to, then immediately after found Paul’s BBTN reference down here, so I inquired here, too.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 17, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

More references are always better

I haven’t read the Gennaro thing, for instance.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree 100% with eastbayexpat

It’s Doolittle and Leon for me. I too voted for Doolittle. He has had professional success and still has quite a bit of upside.

Again, I just cannot bring myself to vote for Ynoa—upside or not. The injury scares me and I’d not like to see some professional production. Heck, I’d like to see any sort of production in an in-game situation—college, high school, American Legion, little league, anything. Right bow, he’s had a bunch of nice bullpen sessions, that’s it.

Can you imagine if batters were ranked off of a couple sessions in the batting cages?

Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports

by nobodyinparticular on Oct 16, 2009 12:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I absolutely agree with you, but

you might rate Chris Carter after seeing only one batting practice. Reminded me of Cape Canaveral during the Apollo program.

by redtopcowboy on Oct 16, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You could say that about waaaay too many triple A sluggers

Chris Shelton, Kevin Maas, Dan Johnson, Bobby Crosby.

by eastbayexpat on Oct 16, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ynoa Injury Link?

Is there something on the internet about this injury being something really serious? It could just be a case of the A’s being very, very careful with a young kid w/ an arm of gold.

by Colorado Fan on Oct 16, 2009 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gotta be Ynoa here

Based on potential alone

Jack "The Must, Just has no Rust, ain't no Bust, after him the ladies Lust, turns pitchers into Dust, likes his pizza with no Crust" Cust

by FrankCohen on Oct 16, 2009 2:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Went for Leon.

I’ve been talked off the Ynoa bandwagon somewhat, but I’m pretty comfortable with him here. Leon/Doolittle/Ross in some order next.

By the way, am I wrong in thinking we’ve got a super deep system right now, even with all the graduates? The #13 pick in the draft at #6, and a guy who was in a lot of Top 100s overall last year at 9. Granted, I think Desme was a major mistake at 5, and Ynoa has plenty of warts, but it’s still something. Throw in all the young guys in the majors, and I’m feeling pretty optimistic.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 16, 2009 2:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

So many of these guys have high flameout possibilities, it doesn't give me huge confidence in our depth

But that could just be natural conservatism talking.

Still, it’s far too easy to dream on prospects. With almost all of these guys, we’ll keep on dreaming.

by eastbayexpat on Oct 16, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't that the point of depth?

Obviously not even close to all these guys will make the majors, but because there are so many who have a chance to be minor stars, we should get some good major league production out of them. I mean, how many teams could make an by-all-accounts-good, over-slot pick at #13 in the first round and have that guy only be their number 5 prospect? (That’s a genuine question. Maybe it’s a lot more than I think.)

by Elston Gunn on Oct 16, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Desme has 1133 OPS after 3 AFL games

Mistake at #5? maybe, maybe not

by redtopcowboy on Oct 16, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Drawing a conclusion after 3 games is always a mistake.

Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.

by danmerqury on Oct 16, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No conclusion intended

Just off to a good start against top level minor pitching. Doesn’t mean a thing, really, but a good start is better than a bad start. I hope he keeps progressing against AFL pitching, then has a good AA/AAA season next year. That, of course, will tell us more.

With all that said: WOOHOO, GO DESME!

by redtopcowboy on Oct 16, 2009 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The AFL should not be mistaken for top level minor league pitching

and this a year where it has the most that its had for a while

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh, no Desme just homered again, 2 in 4 games

I hate it when that happens.

by redtopcowboy on Oct 16, 2009 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Damn it, Desme!

Stop making a #5 ranking on a community blog look better!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 16, 2009 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Get back to me when his K rate is below 40%

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chris Carter struck out 5 times in his first game in Mexico.

Mistake at #1? Maybe, maybe not.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 16, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He’s on a 40-HR pace! uh oh, but he has a 47% K-rate, that is historically bad. But wait, he’s got a 20% BB rate. That is even better than Cust! Uh oh, but he won’t sustain that .750 babip. But still, with a .750 babip, he must have great babip skills! Hmmm, the but the whole exercise is useless without applying some rigorous park factors. …

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Oct 16, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

:-) x

by Elston Gunn on Oct 16, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is that the other teams in the division have a ton of talent too

except Seattle, and they have the best newish GM in baseball. I’d feel a lot more optimistic in any other division apart from the AL East.

As it is? Not terribly hopeful. Playoff appearances are going to be a real rarity for the A’s until baseball puts in some kind of redistribution scheme with more teeth. As it is the Angels are starting every season off with like an 8-10 win advantage.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 16, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep, and I currently don't see any reason why they'd want to do that

Currently, the teams they want to reach the playoffs, reach the playoffs, with the occasional smaller market team crashing the party so Bud Selig can bang on about parity, etc.

by bobnothing on Oct 17, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, it's true.

I suppose I’m optimistic for the quality of the team, not necessarily the likelihood of making the playoffs a lot.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 17, 2009 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I voted for Michael Ynoa and I'm sure I have a good reason

just don’t ask me what it is.

by sirbed on Oct 16, 2009 5:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't worry -- I don't care!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 16, 2009 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Leon again

Even though Ynoa will win this pretty handily and Doolittle will probably go on next. I like both those guys but Leon is so young and has all that experience beyond his years to go along with the success he had this past season. Me likey.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Oct 16, 2009 5:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Not sure why Leon is getting so little love vs. Doolittle

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 16, 2009 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing

People like the power numbers especially considering how power-starved our team has been these past couple seasons. I like Doolittle as much as the next guy but I can never have enough good, young pitching and considering that Anderson is the closest thing to a reliable pitcher out of the whole crop we had this year then I wouldn’t mind adding more guys to the mix like DLS, Leon, and Ross.

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Oct 16, 2009 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's far away.

He’s pitched, what, like 75 innings top in a season in his career? So they’ve gotta stretch him out. A lot can go wrong in that time period.

Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM

by travdog6 on Oct 17, 2009 3:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes but he's 20 and in AA

A lot less is likely to go wrong with Leon than with Ynoa.
Stretching him out is quite different than developing a pitcher who hasn’t even thrown an ‘A’ ball pitch. And as for Doolittle, given the current competition, I can’t see him ever sticking with the parent club, whereas I believe Leon has a strong chance to do so.

chronic

by Since1972 on Oct 17, 2009 5:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The value of a prospect is not, or shouldn't be, based on what team he happens to find himself affiliated with

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Took a while but I think I finally made up my mind.

Ynoa gets DQed for being injured and never having pitched in a competitive game ever.

Leon I wanted to support but ARL isn’t that big of a deal as a pitcher and hes going to probably need two years to increase his innings to MLB starter levels. He doesn’t have great walk rates either. Furthermore we don’t really know if he is able to go through a lineup 3 times as he has never faced more than 21 batters. Therefore I have to discount him with having the possibility of being a reliever.

Ross’ mechanics are horrific and his FIP wasnt that great.

Kilby is a reliever.

Henriguez is a bad reliever.

High school catchers bust like I get into debates, so Stassi isn’t a good value yet.

So basically for me it is down to Doolittle and Capra.

Capra I love the K’s and the FIP but the tRA and the FB rate worry me, especially with him bordering on too many walks. I think he can be a strong number three starter.

Doolittle is an enigma to me. Sucked in his debut. Hit like gangbusters in the Cal league before sucking in AA before ripping baseballs in the AFL. Great ST mediocre AAA busts up his knee. Now the narative is that because he was a pitcher and didn’t play every day in college he got tired at the end of his seasons. My concern is that we collectively buy into that narrative and small sample sizes too easily. AFL and ST numbers really aren’t that reliable, though they probably do show that Doolittle made some progress. His Total Zone numbers saying he sucks at 1b to me counteract scouting reports that say hes awesome, so I have to wonder which bat is real and will his knee be a lingering issue. But he is in AAA which increases the likelihood that I get value out of him.

So for the narrowest margins I pick Capra with Doolittle next on my list.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 8:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Ynoa Injury Buzz

“RHP Michael Ynoa: The prize of the 2008 international amateur signing class has been slowed by injuries. The A’s shut Ynoa down over the summer as he had elbow soreness, and he’s recently battled tendinitis in one of his knees. But his elbow is doing better and he’s been on a throwing program for the past month, according to Keith Lieppman, the A’s director of player development. Ynoa, who turns 18 in two weeks, has been back home in the Dominican Republic, but he’ll return to Phoenix and participate in the fall instructional league, which starts in about a week. Considering his age, and the $4.25 million bonus he was signed to, the A’s will treat him carefully.” – Joe Stiglich

The Buzz is very, very loud at AN. Kid Gloves. Kid Gloves.

by Colorado Fan on Oct 16, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats old

He didn’t participate in instructs because his arm was giving him more trouble. I forgot about the knee…. great more injuries to worry about. Im fucking dancing in the streets.

Ynoa please save us… your one of many many many hopes (in a deep farm system)

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

how recent is that article?

good find, c-fan.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 16, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

1 month old

by Colorado Fan on Oct 17, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So...

we have an 18 year old kid who never played competitively who’s finding it difficult to stay healthy enough to throw a ball (something rather pivotal for a pitcher) and we’re overly excited about him over several players who are far and away more likely to make an impact on the AAA level let alone a major league level than Ynoa?

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 16, 2009 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Based on Scouting Reports and the Signing Bonus. He has the highest ceiling of any prospect in the A’s system. He was #1 Prospect for Baseball America under 1 year ago (over Anderson, Cahill, and Carter). The A’s are probably working on some fundamentals with the kid. Some of these tweaks can lead to “arm/elbow soreness”. There’s no need to rush this kid.

by Colorado Fan on Oct 17, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Never played in a competive game

Seriously. Never. How can anyone, scouting experts included, know anything of this guy? I’m all for not rushing the kid, I genuinely hope he does as well as people think, but it’s impossible to ignore the fact that what’s been described as minor injury has kept him on the side line so long. There’s a lot of wish casting for a guy like Ynoa, even from the scouts who claim he’s Ace material. I don’t deny it’s great to take this kind of risk, great to have a kid like him in system, but you can’t ignore the reality that he’s an extremely high risk proposition. Much rather have all the other guys one this round’s list over him right now. They all at least have the potential to make the majors within their current contracts, I see a good chance that Ynoa never makes AAA, let alone the majors within the next 6 years, that’s how scary an arm injury is to a kid who’s never pitched can be, especially if it’s just performing the “fundamentals” as you call it.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 17, 2009 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

By 'competative', you mean, 'professional', right

I mean, it’s not as if they picked him up off the streets of Santo Domingo because he was tossing a ball with his brother, or anything.

Or maybe the A’s scouting system is even better than I thought…

by bobnothing on Oct 17, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Competitive, as in an organized league of some stature that includes stats, etc.

I wouldn’t count clinics and pickup games nor instructional leagues that are more about the process of baseball than actually playing the game.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 17, 2009 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Come on

Ynoa just turned 18 years old. “Organized league(s) of some stature that includes stats” don’t exist in the D.R. if you are under 16 years old. He just turned 17 years old 1 year ago.

by Colorado Fan on Oct 19, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you don't think prepubescent stickball games in the Dominican are competitive? :)

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 16, 2009 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not really.

Part of the Ynoa mystic is that he didn’t play competitive ball growing up and was basically brought along by his buscon.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

2 things about Doolittle which put him well in front of Capra in my eyes

Age: He’s been able to hold his own in advanced leagues (his line in AAA was fine for what it was, especially given that he had an unusually [for both him and the league] low BABIP) and next year is only his age 23 season.

The pitcher thing: It’s not just that he’s been getting tired at the end of his seasons, which is plausible but might just be a coincidence. It’s also that there’s some reason to believe he will develop more power as he learns the hitting craft better and adds more weight to his frame.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 1:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ynoa again.

After that I’d probably go for Rodriguez, Doolittle or Stassi. Hornbeck is my next candidate to be added.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Oct 16, 2009 11:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Aaron Cunningham

I’d like to vote for him.
I prefer a 23 yo with an al-round game in AAA, hitting 850+ OPS for two years in a row over a 23yo Corey Brown hitting 840 in AA.

by OPS2000 on Oct 17, 2009 1:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

"To tell the truth, I'm not excited to go to Cleveland, but we have to. If I ever saw myself saying I'm excited going to Cleveland, I'd punch myself in the face, because I'm lying" - Ichiro

by Philip Christy on Oct 17, 2009 2:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude is no longer eligible because of too much MLB playing time.

"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT

There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"

by designatedforassignment on Oct 17, 2009 2:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We should tell Geren that Cunningham got too much MLB playing time!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 17, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My vote is for Brett Anderson

I am surprised he fell to No. 9, but I feel he is steal here. Let’s at least add him to to the list for pick #10.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Oct 17, 2009 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cunningham was barely disqualified

Its splitting hairs, I know, but if we make an exception, where do the exceptions end? With that, I just decided to keep a hard figure and stick to it.

Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.

by Zonis on Oct 17, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't disagree with your decision, but in "real life" I do have to say that to me,

Cunningham is very much an A’s “prospect” in that he’s potentially a big part of the team’s immediate future, he’s only 23, and he hasn’t really proven one way or the other how he can fare in the big leagues — he’s basically had “cups of coffee.”

So when I think of the A’s farm system and what it might produce that’s different/better than the current big league team, I feel Cunningham is every bit a part of that question as Doolittle or Cardenas are.

Maybe we should insert a “_.5” slot for “where Cunningham would be if he qualified.” We could even do that last when the entire list appears to be completed.

Personally, I’d rank Cunningham #3.5, behind Carter/Wallace/Cardenas but ahead of Weeks/Desme/Green.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 17, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's exactly where I'd put Cunningham, too.

I think the community would probably agree. Cunningham would definitely have been in the discussion at #4 if he’d been eligible.

"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan

by iglew on Oct 17, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I'd have him there too.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 17, 2009 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Henry Rodriguez

I don’t understand the verbal support H-Rod is getting right now. Maybe it would have made sense 2 offseasons ago when he was just starting to get attention and he had a slight opportunity to be a starter. Now that he has shown for two seasons that he can’t hit the strike zone—as a RELIEVER—our expectations need to be tempered a lot. I honestly wonder if he will be a productive major leaguer at all. I think he falls in after Doolittle, Capra, Leon, Kilby and Ross.

Visit my sports blog: Triple Slash Sports

by nobodyinparticular on Oct 17, 2009 10:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

100 MPH!!!!!!!!!1111111111

Anyway, hitting the broad side of barn is an utterly overrated skill. Who needs to hit a barn?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 17, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not that I'd vote for him

but he did brighten up the end of the season, didn’t he?

And you can’t put a price on that.

Ok, maybe you can.

by bobnothing on Oct 17, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What surprised me, watching Rodriguez,

is that his mechanics seemed fairly simple and potentially repeatable, not like I had expected. For those who couldn’t see him, H-Rod’s delivery is kind of “Sean Gallagher-like” in that he has a slight turn away from the hitter and then drives from there. It didn’t look all that far fetched that C. Young / R. Romanick could get him to a point of consistent release point.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 17, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think he's in the A's top 30 prospects, to be honest

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

My hope is that he turns into Kyle Farnsworth

and Dayton Moore offers us Billy Butler for him.

by Elston Gunn on Oct 17, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's a bit harsh

I don’t have much faith in HRod, but he does have the stuff so that if he were to break out, he’d be amazing value. Even if he has only a 1% chance, that makes him a better prospect than say, Josh Horton or David Thomas, or whoever will probably be around 30.

The guy did strike out 82 (!!) in 48 innings and is only 23 next year. Maybe he learns a new motion and suddenly finds command. Don’t his stats make him a better pick than a guy like Brett Hunter?

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 17, 2009 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess if you believe that no reliever has all that much value

then it’s easy to see how someone would be “meh” over H-Rod, whose future is almost certainly in the bullpen.

I happen not to subscribe to that theory — I believe that starting pitchers are far more valuable than relief pitchers, but that your Joel Zumayas (best case scenario comp), your 2009 Michael Wuertzes, your Scot Shieldses, your Philip Hughses (would someone please be a good reliever whose name doesn’t end in a “zzz” sound????) can be quite valuable indeed.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Oct 17, 2009 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

When you don't throw any strikes, ever, most of your outs are probably going to be strikeouts

His total lack of command puts a hard cap on how good he can be. And being a reliever means that even a dreamboat scenario where he miraculously receives the gift of command from the baseball gods isn’t worth more than a league-average player or so.

Tiny probability of hitting a low ceiling? I’d call that worse than Josh Horton, yeah. At least he only has a low probability of hitting a low ceiling.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 17, 2009 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't have too strong feelings

As long as you’re consistent. Don’t rank Hunter ahead of HRod.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Oct 17, 2009 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hunter's had his mechanics totally redone

and theoretically could still be a starter. I don’t think I’d rank him in front of Rodriguez, given how far he has to go to even be a decent option at the big-league level, but it’s not an implausible position.

What is implausible is discussing either of them within the next 15 votes or so.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 18, 2009 1:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t understand why they don’t teach him to throw a hard sinker. I think he would be such a better pitcher if he could consistantly throw a hard sinker say 93mph, use that pitch to get lots of ground balls. Then if he is ahead in the count use his 100 mph or his hard slider to get outs. If he did throw a sinker that hard all he would have to concentrate on is throwing it low. He wouldn’t have to work the corners and I think his walk rate would go down. To me he could be like Brandon Webb, or Justin Verlander but out of the pen.

by skalordes on Oct 18, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am sardonically amused by the notion that Henry Rodriguez is "working the corners"

It’s pretty clear that right now, he’s just aiming at the middle of the plate and praying that the ball actually goes somewhere within the strike zone. I doubt any new pitch will be changing that (actually, I doubt ANYTHING will be changing that).

I also feel obliged, by way of interest, to point out that Justin Verlander is a fly-ball pitcher.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 18, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am glad your amused

It is much easier to throw stikes when your throwing with 90% of your velocity. Not throwing every pitch as hard as you can. It is also much easier to hit something strait, as opposed to a pitch breaking down. I would say especially after this year Verlander is more of a strike out pitcher. Instead of throwing a sinker (some of his fbs have crazy movement) he throws a high 80s change up. Then later in the ab throws in the high 90s. Which is what I would invision for Hrod but a sinker instead of a changeup. I think Verlanders fly balls come from throwing up in the zone.

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=6829811
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=3132966

by skalordes on Oct 18, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh and I never said he is working the corners… I said he wouldn’t have to. You have such a sardonic blog personality I am not suprized.

by skalordes on Oct 18, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're missing the point

HRod has NO control over where the ball is going. Yes, assuming your point has any veracity he wouldn’t have to throw to the corners, BUT he would have to throw it over the plate somewhere. His shtick of throwing 100+ mph works against bad hitters with poor preparation and poor scouting. But even still, he wasn’t good. In the majors, against great hitters, it won’t just be a walk-a-thon disaster, he would be cataclysmic.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 18, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But that is my point.. Which is why he needs to change his approach.

by skalordes on Oct 18, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adding a new pitch

isn’t going to fix his control problems. If anything, it’ll make it worse because he’ll be focusing on the wrong thing.

CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."

by DMOAS on Oct 18, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

by danmerqury on Oct 18, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
STO (oak)	A+	9	2-2	3.12	52	42	21	67	0	1.21
KAN (oak)	A	18	4-7	3.24	100	70	40	103	0	1.10

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
MID (oak)	AA	33	2-3	3.51	74.1	71	28	63	1	1.33

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
MID (oak)	AA	9	5-4	3.96	50	40	20	31	0	1.20
STO (oak)	A+	18	5-6	4.17	86.1	78	33	82	0	1.29

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
SAC (oak)	AAA	28	.267	.364	.448	4	14	0	17	5

2009 Stats		G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	BB	K	SV	WHIP
SAC (oak)	AAA	37	2-1	5.77	43.2	38	38	71	4	1.74
STO (oak)	A+	3	0-0	0.00	5	3	1	11	0	0.80

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
VAN (oak)	SS	13	.286	.340	.367	0	8	0	3	4

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
USC	College	54	.374	.441	.569	4	32	16	46	19
STO (oak)	A+	4	.316	.350	.368	0	3	1	2	1

Upcomming Potential Prospects for Voting (no order):
Mattl Sulentic, OF	Anthony Recker, C	Shane Peterson, OF	Alex Valdez
Dustin Coleman, SS	Travis Banwart, SP	Matt Spencer, OF	Gregorio Petit, SS
	Graham Godfrey, SP	Robin Rosario, OF	Tommy Everidge, 1B
Clayton Mortensen, SP	Ronny Morla, SP	Wilfredo Solano	Joel Galarraga, C
Nino Leyja, 2B	Paul Smyth	Conner Crumbliss	Pedro Figueroade, SP
Rashun Dixon, CF	Julio Ramos	Daniel Straily	Fautino De Los Santos, SP
James Simmons, SP	Ian Krol, SP	Yusuf Carter	Ryan Ortiz, SP
Brett Hunter, SP	Anthony Huttenlocker	Carlos Hernandez, SP	Ben Hornbeck, SP
	Reynaldo Mateo	Tyler Ladendorff	Shawn Haviland, SP
Mickey Storey, SP	Chris Mederos	Jon Meloan	Josh Horton, SS
	Conner Hoehn	Corey Wimberly, UTL	Dan Thomas
Sam Demel, RP	Josh Leyland, C	Justin Souza	Andrew Carignan, RP
Jermaine Mitchell, CF	Jared Lansford, RP	Justin Marks	Jason Christian, 3B

2009 Stats		G	Bavg	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	R	2B
SAC (oak)	AAA	44	.302	.365	.505	9	28	1	32	10
Mem (stl)	AAA	62	.293	.346	.423	6	19	0	22	11
SPR (stl)	AA	32	.281	.403	.437	5	16	0	22	5

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2010 Community Prospect List - #9

Who is the A's #9 Prospect?

Tyson Ross, SP

Max Stassi, C

Arnold Leon, SP

Sean Doolittle, 1B/OF

Michael Ynoa, SP

Brad Kilby, RP

Anthony Capra, SP

Henry Rodriguez, RP

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