BA's Texas League Top Ten Is Released
by designatedforassignment on Oct 13, 2009 2:29 PM PDT
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PrintYou might find some familiar faces in this Texas League list.
1. Mat Latos, rhp, San Antonio (Padres)
2. Justin Smoak, 1b, Frisco (Rangers)
3. Chris Carter, 1b, Midland (Athletics)
4. Jhoulys Chacin, rhp, Tulsa (Rockies)
5. Brett Wallace, 3b, Springfield (Cardinals)
6. Jason Castro, c, Corpus Christi (Astros)
7. Esmil Rogers, rhp, Tulsa (Rockies)
8. Trevor Reckling, lhp, Arkansas (Angels)
9. Peter Bourjos, of, Arkansas (Angels)
10. Hank Conger, c, Arkansas (Angels)
11. Kasey Kiker, lhp, Frisco (Rangers)
12. Lance Lynn, rhp, Springfield (Cardinals)
13. Daniel Descalso, 2b, Springfield (Cardinals)
14. Michael McKenry, c, Tulsa (Midland)
15. Adrian Cardenas, 2b/3b, Midland (Athletics)
16. Jeff Bianchi, 2b/ss, Northwest Arkansas (Royals)
17. Logan Forsythe, 3b, San Antonio (Padres)
18. Dan Cortes, rhp, Northwest Arkansas (Royals)
19. Corey Brown, of, Midland (Athletics)
20. Samuel Deduno, rhp, Tulsa (Rockies)
Second, I don't get the love for the Angles players here. Besides Conger, I don't think I would trade any my A's top 10 for the players on the list.
Third this quote seemed out of place to me:
Even the player who dominated the league for most of the season, Midland first baseman Chris Carter, departed for Triple-A before the year was over, leaving the RockHounds to battle through the playoffs without the league MVP. The supporting cast rose to the occasion, however, as Midland won the league title over Northwest Arkansas.
The RockHounds roster was representative of the league as a whole, with a few standouts and a depth of players who are interesting but are probably marginal major leaguers at best.
The Rockhound lineup at some point had a ML quality regular prospect at almost every position on the field. Donaldson behind the plate, Cardenas at third, Weeks at Second, yes Josh Horton is not a good prospect at SS, Carter at 1b, Brown in CF, Sulentic at LF and Peterson/Spencer in right. I count 6 position players that have ML futures as regulars if their development proceeds as expected.
So basically I don't get Will Lingo at all.
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Makes sense to me.
He seems to be referring to Midland’s roster at the time of the Texas League playoffs, which did not include Cardenas or Carter. I can’t see how he could call Weeks a marginal major leaguer, but I can see how he might make that case for the rest of them.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Ok I guess you could read it that way. It would make more sense if you do.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 13, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't get how there are 20 players in the Top Ten!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Texas
Everything is bigger in Texas, they tell me.
The Ultimate Opportunist
by Rated-R Superstar on Oct 13, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Darn fingers
It is the new match Nico. The odd numbers are fill ins
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
But all the A's are odd numbers
:-(
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
oh yes.. what I really meant to say was that the even numbers really don't count...
The odd numbers are the real top 10
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Conger's so over-rated.
Smoak over Carter?
Conger over Cardenas? (not to mention at least 5 others who arent as good or valuable as he is)
Brown is the 4th best A’s prospect?
huh?
Well
The third statement is one I agree with. I do believe Corey Brown is the A’s 4th best prospect.
However, I’d also point out that this is Texas league, AA only. So a player must have 20 appearances at that level before qualifing. Desme and Green would not qualify given that they haven’t played above A+ yet.
by eastbayexpat on Oct 13, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Brown over Weeks?
now ive heard everything.
right i knew it was only AA, still doesnt make much sense….unless our guys are getting under-rated (which in Cardenas case, I think is happening).
My rationale for Brown over Weeks
Quite simply, Brown has proven he can hit AA pitching. Weeks has not.
I think they are getting slightly underrated. I don’t understand how Justin Smoak is rated above Chris Carter. Cardenas should be much higher than he is.
by eastbayexpat on Oct 13, 2009 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Smoak has a higher floor and better defense
I don’t agree with it but I think there is a legitimate argument to be made for it.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 13, 2009 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the issue of defense is huge
Carter and Wallace both have limited potential defensively, and that hurts their rankings — as it should. I’m not even sure I’d say Smoak has a higher ceiling in that Carter’s ceiling might be 45 HRs (a la Ryan Howard / Prince Fielder) but even so the ranking makes sense because defense matters.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Smoak has a lower ceiling than Carter
but his floor is higher. It is much less likely that MLB curveballs and sliders destroy Smoak, but if everything goes right for them Carter will be a better player IMO.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 13, 2009 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions
umm at one point we had only Weeks.. and then we had (have) Weeks and Carter
So.. maybe Weeks, Carter and Smoak isn’t that far off.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
First there was Weeks.
And then Beane said “Let there be Carter!”
And it was so.
Actually we had Carter first.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 13, 2009 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions
And actually I meant Weeks, Wallace and then Smoak..
I think age is creeping up on me!
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Yeah except
We drafted Smoak 3 years before we drafted Weeks
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 14, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Whats your point?
because it has nothing to do with the order of the three players in Eastbay Jim’s construction above.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 14, 2009 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions
In the chat, Lingo mentioned why he didn't include Donaldson in the list:
Donaldson…is an interesting guy and one who just missed the top 20. As with Trumbo, power is definitely the most intriguing part of Donaldson’s game as well. He produced a lot more doubles than home runs this season, though, and at least one manager summed up his reaction to Donaldson simply with, “I’m not a fan,” which is the ultimate quick dismissal from a scout or manager. Not usually a follow-up to that. And I think the consensus on Donaldson as a receiver is that he’s just OK. If he continues to hit he could end up in the big leagues.
I guess that makes some sense, although he fails to mention that Donaldson is fairly new to catching, has improved behind the plate this season from last season and is an awesome hitting prospect as a catcher. In fact, I like Corey Brown as much as anyone, but his jury is still out, especially if he can’t play centerfield full time. I would have personally included Donaldson on the overall Top 20 and dropped Brown altogether…
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
They try really hard to inspire as little confidence as possible in the criteria they use for these lists....
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Apparently "Not a fan" is good enough
About as enlightening as “He has great stuff.”
CuttheMullet, from "The Thread":
"Whenever I’m about to do something, I think "would an idiot do that?" and if they would, I do not do that thing."
"Not a gamer"
I suspect Donaldson won’t make it as a catcher, which in turn will put his hitting numbers under more of a microscope. But I still think he can hit .280/.360/.440 in the big leagues and an .800 OPS at a corner INF position may not be stunning, but it’s quite decent.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
With an OBP like that it is very good
with a league average glove that is a 3.25 WAR player which a significantly above average starter.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 13, 2009 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure Donaldson will be an everyday starter in his career
I could see him settling into being a versatile “platoon-plus” player who starts against all LHP, and some RHP at multiple positions (likeliest 3B and 1B, but maybe C and 3B). Kind of like Robb Quinlan or Brandon Inge.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
While in the past Donaldson has had a significant platoon split
Donaldson has a fairly average platoon split this year If you are projecting him to be as good as you are, which is very good, he should get the opportunity to play against righties. Even if he gets to sit against lefties and you give 125 of his ABs against lefties to someone else he is still a 3 WAR player which is a first division starter.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 13, 2009 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't consider Quinlan to be very good
He’s ok but he’s not something I’d get overly excited about. I like Donaldson. I just think his defensive limitations will probably keep him at positions where his bat is “decent” and his glove “ok” and that likeliest he will become a solid utility player, not an everyday starter at a given position.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You know who I think the best comp is, actually?
Ryan Garko. A patient hitter who handles LHP well, and whose slugging would be fine if he played another position — but whose slugging is as “meh” as his defense is, given the position he plays.
And I’ve always liked Garko. I’ve just never loved him.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You should stop leading him on, then.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
I just don't see how you can not love a prospect that you think will be an above average starter.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 13, 2009 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Robb Quinlan is bloody terrible
but I don’t see how that has anything to do with Donaldson, who can actually hit.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I was trying to do kind of a floor/ceiling thing
I think it’s perfectly possible that Donaldson could wind up being only as good as Quinlan, maybe as good as Garko or Inge, ideally Carlos Guillen. But I’d say he’s more likely to be Quinlan than to be Guillen.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
what I dont get in these comparisons
is that how a hitter is when he’s in the minors rarely ever translates into his big league performance? Was it ever written into Chase Utley’s minor league scouting report that he’d have 30+ HR power in the bigs? What about someone like Jayson Werth, who had a career year and hit 36 HR at age 30? Was that ever written 10 years ago that he’d one day hit 35+?
My point is, Donaldson could do anything. He could hit 40 HR in a year and play for 15+ seasons, he could hit 5 and fail and be out of baseball by the time he’s 28. Its so strange to me to try and project via minor league numbers when a player’s success is largely determined by his own adjustments to big league pitching/hitting.
I don't think it's strange to project numbers
What I think is strange (and by strange I mean irritating) is to be so sure. Like you said, unpredictable stuff happens all the time; it’s actually one of the things that makes baseball so cool (and by cool I mean irritating).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
strange = unpredictable, irritating = cool.
its SO unpredictable watching people trying to predict it is irritating, but knowing that its unpredictable means that knowitalls will be proved wrong in trying to predict it, and thats cool
Which is strange.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I don't know why certain people evince such a consistent refusal
to acknowledge the difference between making a toneless declarative statement (“Player X projects to do Y next season”) and making some kind of guarantee ("Player X WILL ABSOLUTELY do Y next season, no ifs ands or buts about it) but, speaking of irritating, conflating those two as if they’re even remotely related to each other is really, really irritating.
No one who has ever watched a game of baseball and is not deficient in the upper story would argue that any sort of performance is absolutely guaranteed. Frankly, even the suggestion that someone subscribes to that position is an insult to their intelligence.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 14, 2009 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
Im going to rec this until I cant anymore
PROJECTS PEOPLE ISN’T THE SAME AS WILL.
For example: California projects to have an eleventy billion dollar budget deficit next year.
We all know that its going to be bigger than that. Projects only say that this is what using the information that we currently have is our best guess for the outcome.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 14, 2009 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Let's leave legislative projections out of this
Those are often produced through procedures which any legitimate analyst would call disingenuous (which probably explains how they always seem to underplay problems).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Well what about Bill James' projections
theyre always high.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 14, 2009 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions
hey PTDFA, can you 2 just get a room?
or a single SN, its gross watching you 2 rec’ing each other all the time
by PL78 on Oct 14, 2009 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
it takes 3 recs to make something green
so they can’t do it themselves.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
I hope to hell that's not what she said.
If it turns green, should I call my doctor? Or Kermit the frog?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
And by irritating, I mean ...
oh wait, are we allowed to talk about ass-grabbing in a DFA thread?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Go for it... this is just a link post
its not like I have invested a lot of time here.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 14, 2009 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Im well aware of it
I just prefer to use the postirony approach to sarchasm.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
As opposed to the positrony approach
which is notoriously inept at recognizing sarcasm.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 15, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Star Trek* geekitude +
weird pseudo-pun = winning formula!
* (Tolkien also works.)
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
STNG gave me a moral compass when I was a child
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I have to admit, ST:TNG
was remarkably moral for the 1980s, which was a particularly amoral decade.
It was occasionally deep as well, which of course I loved. “The Outcast” was particularly awesome. “Half a Life” was also awesome. Some really excellent stories in that series.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
wait a minute...
the 80s were amoral?
Sock puppets have never been able to successfully attack castles. -Nevermoor
by Leopold Bloom on Oct 16, 2009 1:23 AM PDT up reply actions
They certainly were artistically.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Oh, OK, that's cool.
and by cool, I mean irritating.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
Um dude
But I still think he can hit .280/.360/.440 in the big leagues and an .800 OPS at a corner INF position may not be stunning,
You should really get out of the game if youre going to criticize projections when youre throwing them out, either that or you should put a disclaimer that you really don’t expect those numbers to be accurate at all.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 14, 2009 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Of course I don't expect those numbers to be accurate at all
How the hell should I know how Josh Donaldson will hit in the major leagues? I’m humble enough not to assume I can project it accurately, no matter how many times I see him play or how many stats I scrutinize. On the other hand, I project that you will reply in a way that annoys me. But who knows?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/humble
just in case some people around here never seen that word before.
Here’s the thing— people have actually done real mathematical studies about minor league statistics. And it turns out they work like gangbusters at predicting how well players will hit in the majors.
I’d really like to lay you some bets about how certain minor leaguers will perform once they hit the majors. If your theory is correct, it should be totally random and you ought to be able to clean up (assuming I give you decent odds, which of course I would). I’m going to hazard a guess that you will not, in fact, be willing to take my wagers.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
seriously, why don't you bet?
you guys can wager BBRef sponsorships of the winner’s choice, so it goes to a good cause.
There are some logistical problems here...
For instance, one would probably want to measure either the career or at least the first six (cost-controlled) years of players’ performance, which would mean these bets would be maturing somewhere between 2016 and 2030…
Nonetheless, assuming we could resolve those, I would be willing to place bets at the following odds:
Pays 1 to 1 for correctly predicting a player with a career wOBA of .340 or better, minimum 100 PA
Pays 2 to 1 for correctly predicting a player with a career wOBA of .350 or better, minimum 100 PA
Pays 4 to 1 for correctly predicting a player with a career wOBA of .360 or better, minimum 100 PA
Pays 1 to 1 for correctly predicting a player with a career wOBA of .315 or less, minimum 500 PA
Pays 2 to 1 for correctly predicting a player with career wOBA of .305 or less, minimum 500 PA
Pays 4 to 1 for correctly predicting a player with career wOBA of .295 or less, minimum 500 PA
All bets cancelled if the player fails to hit those PA totals.
For reference, league-average wOBA is about .330. If prospect performance is truly random, PL78 will be raking in the dough by this metric, as the odds of me winning a bet are significantly worse than the odds I’m getting.
And just to make this 100% clear— I am not attempting to game the system in any way here. I’m explicitly trying to set up a structure that will cause me to lose if hitting talent is distributed randomly across minor leaguers.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
It's weird -- you seem to get very bent out of shape
over “projects isn’t the same as will!!!!” but then act as if “not a 1.0 correlation” suggests “a 0.0 correlation.”
Isn’t PL78’s point that projections are inherently off a decent amount of the time, not that they are only as accurate as randomly guessing?
Anyway, the important thing is that I don’t really care and I’m going to bed!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
how a hitter is when he’s in the minors rarely ever translates into his big league performance
Emphasis added, obviously.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
nico gets what im saying
PT is an argu-bot from the planet argu, who cannot survive on planet earth with argu-ing minutiae and creating argu-ments where there are none.
the thing is, YOU add the emphasis, in terms of the entire post, you are contextualizing and formulating ARGU-ments based off 2 words that arent what the post is about.
but you are an argu, so i forgive you for doing that, its in your nature and you cannot survive without it.
Once again this is a personal attack on PT or I from this user and shouldn't be tollerated.
flagged.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Really? I read it the opposite.
I thought it was a cute and funny effort to lighten up this uptight thread. I didn’t see it as a personal attack at all.
It’s a personal attack to call someone an “argu-bot”?
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
oh, it definitely is
Im an argu-ist, im thoroughly against argu-bots and cannot stand them being on my interweb! DOWN WITH ARGU-BOTS!
but seriously, its not and shouldnt be viewed as such. it was late and i was trying to bow out of the ridiculous, 1-way self-made argument by being light-hearted….something that this place needs more of.
stop being sticklers for every last mis-written word, we all arent lawyers here and parts or singular words of posts arent the downfall of this posters entire being like you make them out to be. ive never seen anyone “monitor” a place so hard and who never lets ONE WORD slide. just chill out bro, im not “attacking” anyone, never have, never will. ive tried to be funny and you dont think its funny, but others do.
by PL78 on Oct 15, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have to admit, I actually found it pretty funny
Good invective is entertaining… even when it’s directed at me.
I didn’t flag it.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Well since they were already throwing the lives in your moms basement slur
this seemed like more in that pattern of insults.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions
So I guess then it turns out
“DFA is DFA without a sense of humor?”
IT’S A JOKE! :-)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
DFA is Bobby Crosby
without the great hitting.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
+1
To Capt. Save-a-Hoe
Don't sweat it. I'm illiterate.
by methodrampage on Oct 15, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions
So:
When I say without hyperbole that someone projects to do x, I’m “sure” that I’m right and am making “irritating” statements which (by implication, if not explicitly) are not “humble”.
When you say something (which incidentally happens to be quite correct, not that it matters for these purposes) is “rarely ever” true, and I call you on it, I am creating “arguments” and saying things “that aren’t what the post is about.”
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Truth be told, I'm just not interested in a fight
and nothing good ever comes of my involvement anyway. I’m on a nice roll of finally learning to “back off” or “bow out” when things get tense so that’s when I’m going to do. Happy trails.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Quinlan was a very good hitter in the minors
Quinlan hit .316/.378/.483 as a minor leaguer; Donaldson is at .280/.374/.456. A good reminder that these types of guys can fall off a (medium-sized) cliff in the majors.
No, what that's a good reminder of
is that looking at minor league lines without taking park effects and ARL into account produces absurd outcomes.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Thanks for the hyperbole
Both Quinlan and Donaldson spent a big chunk of time in the California and Texas Leagues. Ray Winder Field, where Arkansas played while Quinlan was there, was a hitter’s park for sure, but Lake Elsinore Diamond in the CAL is a pitcher’s park. Stockton and Midland are pretty neutral for their leagues. The park factor wouldn’t cause a huge swing one way or the other.
And Quinlan was 9 months older than Donaldson was at similar levels. Nine months’ difference doesn’t make you go from “good hitter” to “bloody terrible.”
by Spass30 on Oct 14, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Almost 50% (1089 of 2370) of his minor league at-bats were compiled in Salt Lake City
which is routinely known for making Angels hitting prospects look like the Second Coming.
Hyperbole?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Okay, since you took the time to look up his minor league stats, you must have seen that he hit .317.396/.442 in the Cal League and .295/.376.476 in the Texas League. I don’t care about PCL stats, since Donaldson hasn’t even made it there yet. There’s nothing to compare. So why focus on Salt Lake City?
And since ARL and park factors are minimal factors in this particular comparison, calling it an “absurd outcome” is hyperbole, yes.
I didn't force you to cite his career minor league OPS...
You fell into that particular punji pit all on your own.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I had already looked up his Cal and Texas League stats before my first post. You didn’t know the merit of the comparison either way ( I assume) and you called it “absurd,” a judgment which one should probably have some evidence for if one is going to make.
The real question is why you continued with this particular line of argument after looking up Quinlan’s minors stats. Of course, the answer to that question is pretty obvious.
How is it...
You can say something like this but you don’t get on DFA for blatantly ignoring park effects when he wrote about Donaldson a week ago?
Midland played as the best hitters park in the Texas League this year and Donaldson had a 60 point difference between his home and road OPS and you were cool with ignoring those points.
Call me naive, but I think you should make up your mind about whether or not park effects and ARL should be used when projecting minor league performance.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I am going to have a brain anyursm
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 14, 2009 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I felt the same way
first after your Donaldson piece but it was even worse by the Desme one, which was inspired by your writing.
The monster at the end of this blog.
dude your on crack
That was a repost of something that OmahaHI did on both Minorleagueball and here like three months ago. So before you go giving me credit for crap that i didn’t do… like failing to adjust for park or getting OmahaHi to write their own piece about a prospect I think is way over hyped, get your facts straight.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions
First off, the crack comment is a CGV
So watch your step.
Secondly, you did fail to adjust for park effects. You thought it was unnecessary.
Third. The popularity of your (as I refer to it) bad math piece supporting Donaldson allowed OmahaHi the fertile ground to post his (her?) bad math piece that ended up making Desme the 5th best prospect on AN’s poll.
I don’t think that happens without your Donaldson piece coming out first, although I admit to not having any way of actually proving it.
So am I giving you undeserved credit? Possibly.
And anything I have to say beyond that is mean and spiteful. Which, strangely, I don’t want to do since it might send you into a CGV frenzy.
The monster at the end of this blog.
No saying that i caused a completely unrelated author to post something I disagree with is dumblefuckland
which isn’t a real word so you cant complain about it being a CVG
Again I looked at the park effects which were MOTHER FUCKING NEUTRAL. A .002 OPS difference. NEUTRAL MEANS THAT YOU DON"T NEED TO DO ADJUSTMENTS.
How fuck does my piece have anything to do with something that was ORIGINALLY WRITTEN AUGUST 14th? Or am I such a great muse that I can inspire shit before even acting? Furthermore, do you really think that it took a fanpost to get pretty pretty Cal League numbers to be overrated? Thats the whole point of the Cal League, to throw your hitters in launching pads, get gaudy stats, and get over rated by people who don’t park adjust them LIKE I DID WITH DONALDSON. Furthermore, if fanposts are such a huge determinate why didn’t Donaldson get on before Weeks, Desme, or Green?
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions
See, you're getting overly emotional
I wasn’t complaining about your CGV worthy comment, I have no intention of flagging it for review by the Committee, I was trying to help you by pointing out that you were crossing a line by making the crack comment and someone could flag it and then you’d have a strike.
And I quit reading after “not a real word so no CGV” because I doubt there was anything worth the time. (Although, the all caps bit did catch my eye as I skimmed to the Reply button.) So go ahead and vent and then ask yourself why you’re so upset when I suggest you have influence on AN.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Because its preposterous
How does my piece have anything to do with something that was ORIGINALLY WRITTEN AUGUST 14th? Or am I such a great muse that I can inspire shit before even acting?
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Look grover
Im more than happy taking my lumps for when I do something that is wrong. Im upset about this for a couple of reasons:
1. I don’t agree with the way the math was used in the Desme piece
2. You haven’t addressed any of my explanations to why I did the math the way that I did and yet you go around badmouthing my work.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Your explanations are all the same...
“Yes officer, I was speeding but…
“I was late for work”
“I was going the flow of traffic”
“I miss my dog”
You never hesitated when writing the Donaldson piece and you skipped what could be/have been a relevant piece of information. And instead of admitting to the oversight you’ve spent countless words trying to justify it.
But it doesn’t change the fact that you were still speeding.
I. Don’t. Care. About your Donaldson projection. I personally think you’re way over-shooting the mark because I don’t think his catching is good enough to merit the starting time necessary to amass your projection. What bothers me is your process in determining that 4.3 WAR contains a serious flaw that could effect further projections of other players down the road.
That and you used a 3 year old scouting report to suggest that Donaldson might be able to play 3B. Unforgivable.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I really don't understand why you are so fixated on the 4.3 number
Because Josh Donaldson has All-Star (4+WAR) upside at two positions and conservative projection puts Donaldson as a league average player at either of those two positions, you should vote for Donaldson as the number 4 prospect in the A’s system.
There is a reason I put a conservative estimate, which is what I would project that Donaldson would realistically perform at, is I don’t think that Donaldson will hit 4.3 WAR. The chances of it happening are low. The number, and I just don’t understand why you don’t get this, was used to illustrate that, like for Green or Ynoa who are considered upside guys, if everything goes right for Donaldson he doesn’t max out as a league average player which many had contended.
Furthermore, adjusting for park, which I did and usually do when dealing with minor league numbers, is not a flaw that you can associate with this piece especially since the 2009 data is both not available and there are significant reasons which you completely ignore to not use it when the longer look park factors are available. Furthermore expecting me to translate what my vacuum numbers were to the Coli doesn’t make any sense when A) the player isn’t guaranteed to ever play there and B) to get back to a MLB WAR I would have to readd the park effect to the wOBA and C) people around here are smart enough to understand what a neutral environment projection is D) If you look at everything in neutral terms it makes it easier to establish value across environments.
And the scouting reports were from mid 2007 not 06 like you have previously claimed they were.
I made all the decisions I did for analytical reasons and have explained why I made those decisions. You can disagree with the decisions I made but continuing to assume my motive and portray me as being lazy is not only not true but it is beneath you (or I guess it is just beneath, the commentator that I thought you were).
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions
4.3 only matters because it was the number you came up with
I’d have had a problem with your process regardless of the number you came up with.
I do not agree with ignoring the park effect for 2009. I do not think you are justified in writing off the results as “noise”. Especially since you’ve repeatedly admitted to not knowing what those numbers are.
You are making an assumption about the data you are using. You are assuming that your audience is thinking about the data in the same way you are and that they really aren’t expecting to see whatever triple slash line you ultimately came up with for Donaldson in the Coliseum.
All that assumption is like asking to be bit in the ass. Maybe next time you write you won’t assume so many things.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Ok then how would you go about projecting the maximum ceilling of Donaldson?
Show me how to do it if my process is so wrong.
The fact that I am writing off 2009 without seeing the numbers gives my argument more credibility since its clear that I am not doing this to help my case. I used Minorleaguesplits.com’s park adjust, which 3 year park effects IIRC. The likelyhood that shedding 2006 and replacing it with 2009 makes a huge difference is very very very small so I don’t know why, even if you are right and Im not, you are making such a big deal about it. Say Donaldson has a 4WAR ceiling instead.
In this case you are the one assuming that people are thinking that Donaldson produced those stats in the Coliseum. Where as I didn’t make any assumption about either A) what people were thinking or B) what park Donaldson would play in since as you point out that Suzuki and Wallace/Cardenas “blocking” him he could be traded.
I actually assumed very few things and made logical assertions based on the evidence I had. You might be unhappy with the process but until you show me a better way to do it, then youve done nothing but complain about the uncertainty involved in what everyone knows is a very uncertain process.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Sounds good
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions
If it makes you feel better
I didn’t enter this thread with the intent to debate you on this subject again. I was all about calling PT on his on again/off again relationship with using park effects in a discussion. You were brought up as a reference point, not a target. If you hadn’t jumped into the middle of my attempted conversation with PT none of this happens.
Take a moment and pretend that your comments and my replies to your comments that occurred after my initial query to PT had never happened. What is left on that imagined thread is all that I wished to discuss.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Slightly
Here is the thing…
I did apply park factors, maybe not as precisely as you wanted me to with regard to this years which aren’t available but I did the work. I also took ARL into account. So you hopping around saying I didn’t do those things is not true.
Say I wasn’t precise enough, say I should have used better data, or that I was doing it wrong but if you don’t want me to flip out don’t say that I am the cause of the Desme piece or that I didn’t account for ARL or park, or that the I did things the way I did because Im lazy, because they aren’t true.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I miss my dog, too.
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
It's highly doubtful that OmahaHi's piece
“ended up making Desme the 5th best prospect on AN’s poll”.
I mean, obviously we can’t know for sure exactly what caused what here, but what little data we do have suggests the opposite. Desme placed second in both the #3 and the #4 poll, which were before OmahaHi’s fanpost appeared. In the poll results so far, there is a strong pattern of the contest being won by the previous contest’s runner-up. This suggests to me that Desme’s support was already there.
I would also, again, suggest that people step back and not treat it as a personal embarrassment if a player places where they don’t think he belongs. The purpose of this poll is to measure what the AN community thinks, not what any of us individually think. There are 200+ people voting here.
"Go ahead and overachieve, you scrappy Brett-Favre-colored walk-takers." —Rev Halofan
by iglew on Oct 15, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
In a key way you're right
I can’t take it personal when dumb shit appears on AN any more. Thus my new modus operandi of not caring. I feel much more content now.
The monster at the end of this blog.
would you feel better if I scratched your belly?
Sock puppets have never been able to successfully attack castles. -Nevermoor
by Leopold Bloom on Oct 16, 2009 1:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Over the period 2003-2008 (the period where I found data at BBTF), Midland increased scoring offense by 2%
During that same period, Salt Lake City increased scoring offense by 17%.
I believe (maybe Dan Szymborski can pop in and answer this one again?) that these are relative to league, and the PCL is significantly more of a hitters’ league than the TL.
So saying that both Donaldson and Quinlan benefitted from favorable environments is like saying that both the puddle in my bathroom and the Pacific Ocean are “wet.” Midland is sort of slightly beneficial to hitters. SLC is one of the most insanely favorable hitters’ baseball parks in the world.
Final point that needs to be made here: one-year park factors (especially for outlier teams like Midland) and, worse yet, one-player park factors are not usable.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Oct 14, 2009 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Did I say anything about SLC?
Did I imply, in any way, that SLC was not a hitter’s paradise?
Nope.
What I asked you is if it was important to consider park effects when talking minor league performance. Pro-hitter/pro-pitcher/neutral doesn’t matter… should it be considered.
Because I personally think you invalidate the entire concept of park effects if you apply them on a whim. They are either a constant, or they are to be completely ignored. They are not meant to be applied only when you feel like it.
Furthermore, one-year park factors may not be very accurate in predicting how the park will play in the future. It would be best to look over a given length of time (typically 3 year stretches in the models I’ve seen but I don’t know why you couldn’t use 5 or more years worth of data if you had it handy). However they are completely relevant when discussing the performance of players in that particular year. You could not deny the results if in 2010 the Coliseum suddenly played like Coors Field. Sure, you’d probably bet against it happening again in 2011 (I would) but you couldn’t just ignore the fact that it happened.
Put another way, every other measuring system (OPS+, WAR, blah blah blah) would account for the 2010 Coliseum acting bonkers… why wouldn’t you?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Let me address this again.
First Midland is a essentially neutral park as shown by the fact that Minorleaguesplits.com’s park adjustment increased Donaldson’s OPS by .002.
Now you make an argument about the park effects this year. 1 to my knowledge those aren’t available yet 2 I have already explained how a lineup full of great offensive prospects with a crappy rotation would likely distort the scoring effect. There has been no significant weather differences compared to the last three years nor has there been a change in the dimensions of the field.
Again I was not talking about expected performance, but rather a celling when I projected him to hit like he hit in Midland. That means, yet again, that that is what I consider his maximum everything goes his way value, not an expected level of output.
Finally, since Midland is essentially a park neutral environment, then converting his numbers out of a vacuum into Oakland numbers and then reconverting them to league average numbers adds additional and unnecessary error to my projections since WAR is a park neutral number.
Finally, what you are missing is that there would be significant regression to the mean for any outlying park effects because your one year park effect changes are highly likely to be noise rather than a change in how the park plays, yet you want to throw that regression out.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 12:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Funny, you aren't PaulThomas
I could have sworn my comment was in reply to his.
But per your reply… you could be using bad data. Rather than address that potential problem you’d rather ignore it. In my opinion that’s laziness and it produces sloppy work.
Assumption: Midland had a great line-up and a sloppy rotation. What about the rest of the pitching in the Texas League? Are we just going to assume they were inferior as well?
You can make an estimated ceiling out of nothing. You can make it out of a Mark -1 Eyeball scouting report. You choose to try and make it out of a player’s minor league production. If you are going to try and justify your projection using performance data than you better understand what that data is telling you. Because if there is a problem with your beginning data it goes to follow that your projection is flawed.
Finally (so poignant) it could very well be that any unusual park effect changes that occured in Midland in 2009 could regress to their base in 2010 but it does not change their effect on the production of the players who played their in 2009. If it is true that for some reason Midland played as an extreme hitters park in 2009 then the offensive production of the RockHound batters has been over-rated and the performance of the pitchers negatively effected.
When I brought up Zips and similar projection systems last time it was to point out that those systems take as much data as they can (including ARL and park effects) and try to create a conservative, short term projection. Your approach was too take less data and project a high-end, long range performance peak. Even if your conclusion turns out correct your process in building the conclusion is flawed.
If your numbers aren’t meant to be taken seriously than say so. If they are, do everything you can to show that you’re using the right data to find your conclusions.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Again, I was talking about the thing that you hit your head on if you are indoors and jump too high
I describe it because you apparently have never heard of a celling. Posters had consistently talked about how Donaldson was a player without upside. They said that players like Grant Green, Grant Desme, and Michael Ynoa were better prospects because if everything worked out for those players they would be stars. I used Josh Donaldson’s minor league numbers to show that that was in fact false and that if Donaldson hit like he did in the MLB like he is currently hitting he would produce an all-star level WAR which is kind of the definition of everything going right. My “conclusion” that you claim isn’t the one I made. The conclusion I made is that if everything goes right he could be an all star. Not once did I ever say that this was expected.
I did however include a conservative more practical projection of him being a league average player at either 3b or C which had regression built into it, which is more in line with what I think his real production will be.
Now would ARL and Park Effects have an impact on that ceiling? Yes of course they would, but it is impossible to ignore that Donaldson has normal ARL especially for slower moving catchers, and that when you do the park adjustment Donaldson’s stats remain essentially the same leading to the statistically insignificant .002 increase in OPS.
The problem that you are facing with your park effects is there are two types of data that it is collecting, the first is real changes to the way the park plays and error due to changing rosters, quality of players on both sides of the ball, and other factors that don’t actually impact a ball put in play in the stadium. I have argued that using the last three years of park factors is preferable because the competition angle of Midland’s roster. Crappy home pitchers are going to increase scoring. Uber hitting prospects are going to increase scoring. I think that using this one year’s park factor to judge a player is like judging him on RBI’s since his team mates hitting and crappy pitching shouldn’t have an effect on the evaluation of the performance of a prospect. I would argue that departure from the last three years is highly likely to be noise rather than a significant change in the way the park played.
Finally, I can not find anyone with 2009 PE for Midland so how the fuck am I suppose to do what you want if the data doesn’t exist.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 2:28 AM PDT up reply actions
For the record
I understood your argument and insults the first couple times I read them and I remain unmoved as ever. However, the data does exist to “do what I want” it just hasn’t been processed by someone else’s hands. Am I suggesting you should tackle that pile of data? Hell no… unless, of course, you want to. Many a time I shelved a project until someone who liked doing that stuff wrote something that I could easily use. Or I’d put a nice big disclaimer in the diary/fanpost/article I was writing, ’cause I figured being honest was more important than being right.
The monster at the end of this blog.
So no projection of players can occur till the offseason when the three years park data is done ever.
Got it.
So basically statistical analysis should only be done from what January till March? Your right grover any attempt to use the information we currently have to analyze prospects, trades, and major leaguers is terribly unsound during all other months when either the season is going on or the park factors haven’t been calculated yet.
Riiiiiight.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 16, 2009 3:27 AM PDT up reply actions
I disagree
As far as I’m concerned, park factors are a difficult-to-wield-correctly, highly technical argument which posters raising a point for discussion should not be required to take account of.
If you’re writing a fanpost, you should make some sort of effort to find ways to account for park factors if possible, or to use statistics that already account for them. Otherwise, well, they’re fair game for basing an argument on (as I did above) but people cannot be expected to constantly park-adjust every one-off statistic they cite, especially when talking about minor leaguers, where finding and applying proper park factors is an intense pain in the ass.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Careful, Paul
You’re setting yourself up as some kind of high arbiter of when and where park effects should be used in a debate. Don’t take this the wrong way, but yours is not the voice of calm and reason that I’d expect from such a poster.
I don’t think park effect information is that hard to find, although it does seem like we’re still waiting on the 2009 data to be incorporated into the existing calculators. At the very least the historical extremes should be noted (as you did with SLC) as the proverbial grain of salt… with better data to be had when available. I imagine this is why the final draft of Sickels’ book doesn’t come out until February-ish… ‘tis a bitch to do all the math by hand. It’s also why I felt that Zonis’ work, while impressive, was a little premature.
So I disagree with your stance on this issue.
Oh well.
G’nite.
The monster at the end of this blog.
High arbiter?
I said (in a nutshell) that “people should have wide latitude when making arguments in comment threads.”
That’s the precise opposite of setting myself up as an “arbiter.”
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Maybe he meant
you ar bitter.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
The listed park factors are relative to league. While you eventually need to “move” statistics to a neutral park and league, I don’t like mushing them together for presentation.
I use 3-year park factors when I have good park data and 5-year park factors when I don’t. I came to this conclusion by making a prediction model based on known park factors (which I have for a dozen years). Once stretches become longer, you start to lose too much of the signal – the mix of parks and stadiums isn’t very stable.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Oct 15, 2009 6:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for stopping by
Have the park effects for 2009 been created and if so, where could one find them?
The monster at the end of this blog.
But is the puddle in your bathroom water, like the Pacific Ocean?
They call their best player "Kung Fu Panda" and they complain that people aren’t taking them or the game seriously enough? -Nick
This could actually work really well
In a platoon with Powell (assuming what Powell did this year against righties is for real), with Wallace moving between DH and 3B. The catcher who’s not in the lineup would be Sukuki’s emergency backup for that particular game. You could also use him as a defensive replacement for Wallace late in games if, in fact, he is an average defender. But like DFA says, if he OPS’s 800 with average defense, he probably should be given the starting 3B job. It’s also possible that he can only slug 400 in the majors, at which point a platoon makes more sense. But if he’s not even an average defender at 3rd, I’m not sure why the A’s would keep him, as they’re already going to have a below average defensive 3B.
Never assume anything anyone did against pitchers of a particular handedness in a particular year is for real
The sample sizes needed for platoon splits to be legit are like 2100 ABs against RHP and 700 ABs against LHP.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Makes sense
It looks like Powell didn’t even have a split in the minors. Just dreaming about 2011 possibilities here.
powell is too injury prone
to ever catch more than twice a week. and hes not good enough to DH full time. we should be happy kurt has an above average backup who wont lose any production from the C spot when he plays.
Powell is pretty much the best backup C in the game, and if he keeps mashing in limited time, we might get a valuable player out of him and sucker another team into taking this walking time bomb.
I don't even begin to understand it
I find those league lists totally useless.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
yeah they are always all kinds of weird
but it is a data point even if it is a probable outlier.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 13, 2009 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Why would Corey Brown be unable to play center field full time?
He’s barely played elsewhere in his pro career.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I think this is my great confusion too
People consider Josh Donaldson’s likelihood of becoming a catcher higher than Corey Brown’s likelihood of becoming a CF.
It ignores the fact that Corey Brown hasn’t played any of the corner positions since 2007. He has three games at DH in 2009. The rest are in CF. Almost all reports I’ve seen seem to indicate that he is playing the position well and can stick there defensively.
Perhaps I am missing something.
by eastbayexpat on Oct 14, 2009 5:04 AM PDT up reply actions
The reports on him when he was drafted questioned Brown's CF range
and projected him as a good RFer or a subpar CFer. I think that is what you are missing.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 14, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Seems kind of dated at this point
His TZ numbers look fine, maybe even underselling his defense (I don’t know how TZ accounts for arm strength) somewhat. Haven’t seen any scouting reports panning him out there, either. He seems to be doing fine.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Im not saying its not dated or that I believe them
but I am saying that they existed at one point and once those kinds of scouting reports exist they are hard to dispel.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 14, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah but I have yet seen any indication that he actually will be able to do it
I mean TZ doesn’t say he is going to be horrible, so thats a plus.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Why wouldCorey BrownBrett Wallace be unable to play center field full time?
He’s barely played elsewhere in his pro career.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Err... forgot the second edit
But then I think you see my point.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
except at ASU he played 1b.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions
He also had 7 games in AA
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 15, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions
"barely played elsewhere"
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Hah!
Carter is what Anderson and Cahill were last offseason. Untouchable.
Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.
Yeah, just a hypothetical question (I like these on minor league ball) I don’t think I would make the trade. Smoak is untouchable too. The A’s front office definitely has some Smoak love though.
Don't get me wrong, Smoak is a damned good prospect
and I’d love to have him. But Carter, in his 09 season, has elevated himself to top-10 in all of baseball status. I’d trade Carter straight up for Jason Heyward. But not Smoak, ridiculous penchant for endearing nicknames and all.
Lay down, black gives way to blue.
Lay down, I'll remember you.
Ten? In no order
Strausburg
Heyward
Stanton
Matusz
Posey
Santana
Hellickson
Montero
Fiedritch
Chacin
I take all of those guys over Carter. There are probably some more too. Hes hella good but there is bust potential and defensive questions which bump him out of the top ten for me.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 14, 2009 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Who on earth is Fiedritch?
I’ve never heard that name in my life.
I think you’re overvaluing pitching prospects vis a vis hitters. Elite pitching prospects just aren’t as valuable as elite hitters.
Montero seems a little suspect too— I’m not sure his ceiling is as high because he has crummy plate discipline. Both players are inept defensively.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Oh
I can’t agree with that assessment at all. Friedrich is nice, but really he’s just a slightly up-gunned version of Ben Hornbeck.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Ben Hornbeck without questions concerning his stuff is a damn good prospect
maybe I over rate him but I just don’t think Carter is top 10.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 14, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions
but he really doesn't have crummy plate discipline
hes k ing only 13% of his AA ab’s at 19. Plus hes walking in nearly 8% of his PAs has better than a 2:1 K/BB rate. Defensive questions sure, but he a damn good hitter.
"Since other people actually read these threads, though, probably best that your particular brand of wrongness not go completely unchallenged." - PT
There are differing opinions on me. According to Iglew "DFA is PT with a sense of humor. PT is DFA with introspective self-doubt. I like them both" but according to sirbed Im "The Stats Killer"
by designatedforassignment on Oct 14, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
BA is not all that
BA seems to always over rate players based on power and strike outs. I remember a player not to long ago named Jose Offerman who was the greatest prospect according to BA. As for Smoak he has a so so year but because they rated him so high the year before they will stick with him. BA is always talking the 5 tool player but lets face it rarely they become major leaguers.
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