Franconablunder: When Will Managers Learn?
by Nico on Oct 11, 2009 1:11 PM PDT
54 comments
It was 6-5 Red Sox, second and third, two out, Torii Hunter at the plate and Vlad Guerrero on deck. Terry Fancona's decision was to have Papelbon walk Hunter intentionally, load the bases and pitch to Vlad.
The IBB to load the bases is one of the most overused overmanaging tricks in baseball. It makes sense only when you desperately need the DP (not applicable with two outs) or occasionally when there is a very good hitter at the plate and a very bad one on deck. And here we're talking extremes, where for starters you should only consider the move if the current hitter's batting average exceeds the on deck hitter's on base percentage.
With two outs, it's basically never the right move to walk the bases loaded to pitch to Vlad. It wouldn't have been the right move to walk someone to pitch to Hunter. You don't ask your pitcher to load the bases so he can pitch to a good hitter. With the bases loaded, a walk is too damaging, as is a HBP -- plus the knowledge of this fact turns the pitcher into a poorer pitcher who no longer can so easily come inside, throw to the corners, or pitch from behind in the count.
Vlad singled home two runs to give the Angels the lead, and ultimately the win and the series. Sometimes it plays out as it should.
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I was surprised at Francona's decision
but am certainly pleased with the results.
by OaklandSi on Oct 11, 2009 1:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm reminded (not fondly) of
Geren having E-Gonzalez walk Chris Davis to load ’em up for Taylor Teagarden, and having Springer walk Branyan to load ’em up for Jose Lopez.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 11, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ugh...no thanks for reminding me...
what time is today’s next baseball game?
by OaklandSi on Oct 11, 2009 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I said it on the other thread, why throw Vlad anything down the middle?
you know he’ll swing at everything, why give him a strike?
by stormtown on Oct 11, 2009 1:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Precisely because the bases are loaded
That’s the problem. Vlad doesn’t walk much but it’s not like he never walks (he walked his previous AB). Papelbon became a fastball pitcher who had to throw fastballs in the strike zone to a great fastball hitter.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 11, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if you watched MLB Network you'd learn his real name is Vladdy
by stormtown on Oct 11, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
In an ordinary situation, you pitch around Vlad, and certainly avoid a fastball down the middle.
But you can’t really do that with the bases loaded, in a tie game in the ninth. You can’t just assume he’s going to hack away at some lousy pitch in the dirt (that might get past the catcher anyway).
by bear88 on Oct 11, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The other problem with Vlad, though
is that even when bounce it or throw it over his head, he can still hit it hard.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Oct 11, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best.IBB.ever
That was the time Buck Showalter had Barry Bonds walked with the bases loaded with 2 outs in the 9th and the D-Backs leading by two. He got away with it.
"If Vin Mazzaro comes anywhere near me with shaving cream he’s gonna be coming away with a bloody stump" – Dallas Braden
by doctorK on Oct 11, 2009 1:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
And then Brent Mayne hit a hard line drive to RF for an out to end the inning.
1998, right?
by Coach Cleats on Oct 11, 2009 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's right
It almost backfired on ol’ Buck.
"If Vin Mazzaro comes anywhere near me with shaving cream he’s gonna be coming away with a bloody stump" – Dallas Braden
by doctorK on Oct 11, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Managing is the ultimate part of the game best analyzed for "process," not "outcome," though.
The move to walk Hunter / Bonds was good or bad before the next batter stepped in.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Oct 11, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
although walking Bonds to pitch to Mayne makes sense
walking Hunter to pitch to Vlad, not so much
by OaklandSi on Oct 11, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
IBBs make sense if the guy being walked's name is Bonds or Pujols.
Well, more sense, at least.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
by Blicks on Oct 11, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Mauer might be in that category now, too
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
by Nick on Oct 11, 2009 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, him too.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
by Blicks on Oct 11, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So two sweeps now with a chance for a third
I hope the twins do something about it
100% Athletics, 100% Baseball. 2009 Athletics, 40% Baseball.
by fruitattack on Oct 11, 2009 1:33 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
agree
The odds are, two WC teams in the WS.
Happens waaay too often. Dislike this playoff system very much.
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Oct 11, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Red Sox were the WC team
and they’re out. So it’s not going to happen this year.
The Rockies are the National League WC team.
by bear88 on Oct 11, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rockies
I think they’re gonna get smoked today, but we’ll see.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Oct 11, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
where have you bean?!
It’s bean way too contentious here lately. We need your strong voice of reason and calm.
Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy
by Leopold Bloom on Oct 11, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
right you are...Twins have the worst W-L record
but they are not the wild card team….only the “least likely to succeed”.
I got carried away.
If not the “wild card”, then the team with a verrrry close to .500 record. Teams like the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, 83-78.
Say, why does Baseball Reference think “Saint Louis” comes alphabetically after San Diego and San Francisco? Is “St” a word?
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Oct 11, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scioscia made some blunders too
Like not using a lefty against Ortiz which led to Sox scoring insurance run and pinch-hitting for Mike Napoli with… Gary Matthews Jr. But what Francona did was definitely worse. I guess he was thinking along the ‘Hunter is clutch, Vlad is a choker’ lines.
by Manstein on Oct 11, 2009 1:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No Vlad has a lot more holes in his swing.
The A’s pitchers did pretty well with Vlad this year. I believe he is showing his age. In 2009, Vlad “got himself out” more often than Torii Hunter. Hunter is hot here in the playoffs, Vlad is not.
Having a force at any base is also a plus.
I just don’t find it as such a “bonehead” strategy as Nico made it out to be.
One thing I don’t accept is the idea that a team “lives…or dies…” by the closer. A single and a walk??? He’s lost it. Next pitcher please. Why keep Papelbon in after that? IMO, he’s already FAILed to close.
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Oct 11, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vlad can still make hard contact on every fastball thrown from head to toe
And your closer throws nothing but fastballs. That’s not a guy you elect to face with bases loaded.
by Manstein on Oct 11, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point, in that the ball Vlad hit was not a strike (from my POV)
But, as I said, the A’s have been challenging him all season with fastballs, he hasn’t hit one fastball for a basehit during the ALDS, so….
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Oct 11, 2009 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Counter-arguments
1) Hunter did have a better on-base percentage than Vlad this year, .366 to .334. But Papelbon would have been facing Hunter with first base open, leaving him the option to walk him. He had no such option with Vlad.
2) Papelbon is a fastball pitcher, and that’s pretty much it. I’m sorry. I don’t want to throw Vlad fastballs when he knows they’re coming, because the bases are loaded.
3) Vlad can’t run. Having a force at any base is irrelvant..
4) I think it’s a mistake to put your pitcher at a disadvantage just to avoid Torii Hunter. He’s not that damned good. Vlad isn’t the dominant force he used to be, but he’s still Vlad.
by bear88 on Oct 11, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vlad's OBP during the playoffs???
Boston had done very well to get him out.
Papelbon just didn’t have it. Francona should have recognized that after the 8th.
Still, I’m very very VERY happy the Red Sox were eliminated. All the crap about “down 0-3 to the Yankees, last strike in game 4..” can NOW go away far away.
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Oct 11, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the decision to throw to Vlad and not Hunter was sound
but the decision to throw him a meatball, even with the bases loaded, was dumb. He could have thrown something off-speed and maybe got him to rollover. I know that’s a strange thing to say, but you have to have confidence that your catcher can block something in the dirt.
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
by cuppingmaster on Oct 11, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it was low, and perhaps out of the strike zone
Papelbon should have been taken out. Two batters prior, if not after the 8th.
Teams never take out the failing “closer” for some reason. They’d rather lose.
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Oct 11, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vlad can't run??
So CF Ellsbury’s play was to first!!
He gets Vlad out, and the game is over!!
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Oct 11, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is kinda weird to say but...
better the Sox get swept and the Angels advance than the other way around. There is one less team that Fox can suck in the AL Championship Series. Yankees are more than likely going to advance so…
Might end up being the dreaded “freeway series” in L.A. if Angels and Dodgers run the table……????
but hey, I’d rather have at least one Ca team in the WS and if happens to be two, even better.
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
by mrod on Oct 11, 2009 2:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
agree with all that
Anything that destroys the “East Coast Cabal” and all their machinations. ESPN is all about the Red Sox and Yankees, and anything that diminishes that, I am for.
Only reason for disliking the all-LA World Series, is that the weather will be grand. If it was Colorado-Boston, I would love to see snow and dismal East Coast temperatures, all because I hate the fact that baseball doesn’t finish up by October 9th. It’s more like hockey than baseball, with the playoffs, followed by the playoffs, followed by the “finals”.
Greed. Unvarnished greed has shoved tradition down an open manhole.
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Oct 11, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And, the thought of having three, even four teams west of ESPN's covering range
in the LCS is awesome.
Even if two of them are the slegnA and the Dodgers.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
by Blicks on Oct 11, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree 100%
and agree even more, if we can widespread use of “slegnA” out of this.
“Los Angeles Angels” < The Angels Angels
I like absurdities, but not foolish redundancies.
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Oct 11, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know it's sorta blasphemous
But I felt yesterday and continue to feel that the die was somehow cast on day 3 of the season, and that the ring is the Halos’ to lose. I know we are supposed to hate them more than death but I’m a baseball fan since age 2 and I see Red People with the trophy this time, they are playing exceptionally, let’s face it.
I’m for a freeway series, make these East Coast chumps stay up/pay attention.
Hey, I just bought the team from Lew Wolff... who wants to play third?
by emperor nobody on Oct 11, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm real happy Papelbon gave up the game winning and series ending hit
One of my least favorite closers.
@worldblee on Twitter.
by worldblee on Oct 11, 2009 2:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
by micdog2001 on Oct 12, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here, here!
Red Sux go down!
Zeigler to Geren…."A-Rod? He’s my bitch." -alox
by mrod on Oct 11, 2009 2:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
god damn 49ers
If you had a lineup of 9 Jack Custs who hit(Cust career average) .239 AVG, .382 OBP, and .475 SLG, then your team would score 6.12 runs per game-totalling to 991runs a season.The 08 rangers lead the majors in runs score with 901.
by 9Custs on Oct 11, 2009 2:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It frees up my afternoon
so that’s good. Plus, it’s been funny seeing the limitations of Singletary’s rah-rah stuff. His schtick of calling a timeout to rally the defense is great unless the team gives up a touchdown on the very next play.
by bear88 on Oct 11, 2009 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This just makes me think that
there are no good managers, just bad and really bad ones.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
by travdog6 on Oct 11, 2009 2:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
at the end of the day, it's the players who play, not the manager
by OaklandSi on Oct 11, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
Managers can make conditions conducive for good play (Jim Tracy in Colorado) and that is about it. Otherwise, it is up to the players.
"It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics. " GB Shaw
by One won lost won on Oct 11, 2009 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weirdly enough I found myself rooting for the Angels (apparently some of you did too).
When Paps walked Hunter, I thought “bad move.” I also had a premonition when Fox flashed that Paplebon had never given up an earned run in the playoffs, right before Abreu jacked one off the wall for the first run in the 9th.
I know some circumstances are quite different from 1986, but I thought it was a little payback for Dave Henderson’s heartbreak in game 6. I’m still waiting for some payback against LA for Kirk G (I can’t even type the word).
JJ Martin
The best way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until the ball stops rolling and then pick it up. ~Bob Uecker
by JJ Martin on Oct 11, 2009 3:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's good you can't.
We don’t say that name here.
And that fucker better never walk in front of my car.
Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy
by Leopold Bloom on Oct 11, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sweet, sweet... Bloom?
Whatever. Run ’im over.
by Faust on Oct 11, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sweet, sweet Faustus.
Maybe you can find one made by Go F**k Yourself San Jose... -Poppy
by Leopold Bloom on Oct 11, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't Hunter really killing the Sox in this series though?
maybe that is why he walked him.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
by micdog2001 on Oct 12, 2009 11:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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