Combined FIP on Fangraphs — 3.01 (A+/AA) — 2.63 at A+ (80.1 IP) and 3.90 at AA (37.0 IP)

MLE ERALF* from Baseball Prospectus — 4.82 (A+/AA) — 4.65 at A+ and 5.21 at AA

Peak ERALF** — 3.32 — 3.18 at A+ and 3.64 at AA

2009 Projections:

CHONE — 5.38
ZiPS — 4.54

Cahill had a really awesome breakout year toward the top end of his prior projections, and that now projects him as a Cy Young candidate at his peak. Looking at CHONE and ZiPS it looks like he’s at least a year away from being good, but that there’s an outside chance he could contribute toward the end of 2009.

On the downside, he suffered an oblique injury late in the year that kept him out of the last part of the Olympics and out of the AAA playoffs. Kyle Boddy of Driveline Mechanics didn’t particularly like his delivery, grading him:

Tempo — Below Average
Arm Action — Incomplete but probably Average to Below Average
Ball Release — Excellent
Follow Through — Below Average

His stuff, great numbers and oblique injury all sound very familiar to those of us who were fans of Tim Hudson.

• ERALF is Luck Free ERA, which is “essentially the same thing as DIPS, done in a translation scheme where a perfectly average major league pitcher is 4.50.”

• Projected Luck Free ERA during peak seasons

I prefer the Baseball Prospectus MLE translations to those at minorleaguesplits.com simply because they give a greater penalty to minor leaguers and are more consistent with other projection systems, like CHONE and ZiPS. Their projections are done in a similar fashion as PECOTA which has a decent track record of success relative to other systems. Therefore I’m not that bothered about their “black box” reputation. I’m not a stats guy, so I don’t really care about the mechanics of the projections, as long as the results are acceptable and I believe that the guy doing them is as good as anyone else around.

High 80s/Low 90s Sinker
low to mid 90s 4-seamer
Good knuckle-curve
Decent slider with cutter action
Change up needs improvement

• Mechanics need tweaking to avoid future oblique and other injuries. Command could improve a bit.

• Good athlete and fielder. Good frame for a starter. Strong makeup and feel for pitching.

• Should begin at AAA

Honestly I’m terrible at this. I thought Crosby was going to be the next Cal so I hide my head in shame. I love my Cats (season ticket holder) and A’s and like to think BB is in control. Let’s face it, we all want Cahill, Anderson and Inoa become the big three we so fondly remember 6 years ago. In short I voted Cahill because I have a man crush on the big 3. BTW I’m not gay and no it’s not a purse.

Cahill’s got a great sinker, a great 4-seamer, a nasty curve, and a good slider. Despite being a sinkerballer, he can strikeout as many guys as anybody, a la Brandon Webb. The only thing he is criticized about is his control, but it’s not horrific, nor is it great. It’s solid, and likely wont be a big issue. He also has had mechanical questions and had an oblique injury, though it wasnt serious and that’s just nitpicking anyway. He can definitely be a money pitcher, and our ace for years to come.

Carter is also a great prospect, probably my 2nd favorite after Brett Anderson. He’s rated #5 in our system by Scout and 6 by BA. He’s obviously got MONSTER power. Like, ridiculously amazing power. The indication I’ve gotten is that it’s not a product of the Cal League, and that is power is legit. He doesnt hit wall-scrapers, he hits bombs. A big knock on Carter was his low average, but I dont put too much stock into it. He had a really low BABIP, and had shown the ability to hit for average before. I really think he’s more of a .270-.275 hitter. He also K’d a lot, but those K’s came in bunches. Many were in his bad month of May, and many came at the end of the year when he was trying to get to 40 homers. Carter has shown an amazing ability to make adjustments to be successful, so I’m not too worried about the K’s. He’s pretty patient anyway. The only real problem is that he might be limited to DH. It’d be awesome if he could stick at 3rd, but that might not be realistic. The word is that he’s got the arm, but not enough range. I’d still give him a chance to play 3rd in the bigs and then move him if he performs poorly, like Ryan Braun. We might not really need him to do anything other than DH anyway though, so that’s good. IMO, Carter is sort of a mix of Pat Burrell and Carlos Lee, but with more power than both. That’s a very good player.

I voted for him in the poll over Cahill, just because pitchers are so much riskier than hitters.

I do have a couple of side notes though. If there is a poll every time, just like this (the next hitter vs. the next pitcher), I think it’s interesting that it comes out to Carter vs. Cahill and Anderson vs. Cunningham-just because Carter and Cahill have the ceilings, and Anderson and Cunningham have the polish. One of the high risk-high reward things. That’s not to say that Anderson won’t be good, he just doesn’t have the ceiling.

Also, with Carter, I believe it was Nico (and probably not only Nico) that suggested that Carter should play at 1B or LF, instead of wasting his time at 3B. It’s pretty obvious, even to hopefuls that haven’t seen much of him, that he won’t be able to stick at third, so let him master another position. I’d like to see him play LF, because if he plays next year at AA and the year after at AAA, there’s just a one year fill-in between Holliday and him.

I’m also sure somebody has mentioned this before, but it’s interesting how Cahill, Gonzalez (I really think he’ll be good) and Anderson match up with the Big Three of Hudson, Zito and Mulder. Cahill and Hudson the good athletes with fastballs that just fall off the table… Gonzalez and Zito the lefties with big sweeping curveballs… and Anderson and Mulder the lefties with lesser stuff, but poise and fearlessness on the mound. It’s just interesting.

I’m gonna assume that Carter ends up being a 1BSman/DH when all is said and done. You gotta love that raw power that he has shown so far in the minors and if the plate discipline is any indication of what he may project to be in the majors, then it’s a bonus.

Cahill, I have to say, I am having high hopes of becoming an anchor in the future rotation of the A’s. He seems to to have plenty of promise from everything I have read up on him. Hopefully, I’ll make it out to spring training this year to see him and if not, then up to Sacto to catch him in Rivercats action.

Anyway you slice it, we have some really exciting kids coming up thru the ranks, and these two are no exceptions. Here’s to the future of our boys becoming men! Go A’s!

It certainly has a scary name. But a curve requires spin. A knuckle has no spin. Seems contradictory. I’m sure it is a killer pitch, just can’t picture how it is thrown or what exactly it does besides striking everyone out.

OK, this is just an observation from a couple of games, totally unscientific, and probably wrong. Carter’s swing looks like he is chipping on the green from the froghair. No big windup. No big follow-through like he gave it every ounce of strength he had. He just seems to nonchalantly flick his wrists…..and the ball carries 450 feet. I would love to see a frame-by-frame analysis of his swing. I think it is a whole lot quicker than it looks. I think the strength is in the wrists. Awesome.

Cahill one of the best sinkers in baseball
Curveball – some scouts call ++ pitch
Good delivery simple compact, good balance, but cuts off extension a little short in front which puts more strain on back of the arm
Command is good, not as good as Anderson’s
Both Anderson and Cahill and are two of the top five pitching prospects in bball

Hes an intelligent guy, he turned down a scholarship from Dartmouth to turn pro. You can call him stupid for skipping college or whatever, but Dartmouth is an Ivy

Does anybody know of any place I can go to watch Trevor Cahill pitch or Chris Carter hit?

Is there some minor league site that has videos of all our guys out there, or are there some videos hiding out in the tubes of the internet?

I don’t have the means to make it to our minor league games, but I’d really like to see what our prospects look like on the field.

Chris Carter

Trevor Cahill
Trevor Cahill #2

MLE EqA from Baseball Prospectus — .261 (already an average major league hitter in 2008)

Peak EqA — .323 (similar to 2008 Alex Rodriguez)

2009 Projections:

CHONE — .195/.264/.325, 36 Runs below Average (~2-3 years away from the majors)
ZiPS — .219/.284/.403 (better than Crosby, Putnam, Baisley, Petit, Patterson, Rajai or Bowen)

He projects as a middle of the order hitter, and is versatile enough (LF/RF/1B) to make him more valuable than someone who can only play one position. IOW, he should be something like Adam Dunn. Dunn was a much better hitter at 21, slugging .578 in the majors, but Carter’s peak projection is better than any season Dunn ever had. I’m not sure what to make of this, other than the projections is screwy. If he can turn into Dunn, we should all be ecstatic.

• Plus plus raw power; “towering blasts” reminiscent of Mark McGwire

• Has holes in his swing, but crushes mistakes; susceptible to breaking stuff but improved over the course of the year

• Reputation as a big K guy, and K’d in 26.1% of PA in 2008, compared to career numbers for:

Adam Dunn — 26.4%
Jim Thome — 24.2%
Mike Cameron — 24.1%
Pat Burrell — 23.6%
Richie Sexson — 23.4% career and 26.3% in 2008
Mark Teixeira — 17.6%
Jason Giambi — 16.8%

He probably needs to cut down on K’s, or at least not have them increase as he moves up, to have a major league career like those guys.

• Hands not good enough for 1B, and too slow for 3B; athletic but so far not good in RF, but Owens thinks he has defensive tools and is not a DH

• Should start at AA, probably needs substantial time at each level to develop his all-round game.

My first reaction was that you forgot to include DL as an option in the poll.