Giambi and the Post 35 Beane Track Record
by windyfelix on Jan 9, 2009 8:25 AM PST
33 comments
Since and including 1999, the A's have brought in 14 different position players (well 11, actually-- but there were mutliple appearances for Thomas, Velarde and Gant) who were 36 years old or older. How did they perform?
1999
Tony Phillips (40) 244-362-433
Tim Raines (39) 215-337-341
One bust; one modified hit. Raines got a crippling disease, I believe, Phillips was Phillips before a September injury ended his season;
2000
Randy Velarde (37) 278-354-400
Mike Stanley (37) 268-363-464
Velarde actually came aboard in the 1999 Appier, etc. flurry-- but this was a full season. As expected. Stanley was only here for a cup of coffee and performed adequately enough
2001
Ron (Extrava) Gant (36) 259-344-420
One huge playoff HR vs. the Yankees-- overall, not much impact, though. He was a platoon player and pinch-hitter vs. lefties. A friend of mine who knows Chris Berman very well is responsible for the nickname.
2002
David Justice (36) 266-376-410
Randy Velarde (39) 226-325-331
Greg Myers (36) 222-341-381
A's were more pleased with Justice than Halle Berry. A decline from his past, but given the ballpark, not so bad. Velarde was done at this point; Myers came through with a couple of clutch late inning HRs but otherwise was OK as a backup to Ramon
2003
Gant (again) (38) 246-182-220
I had forgotten this brief stay, and it's not hard to see why
2004
Eric Karros (36) 194-243-311
Mark McLemore (39) 248-355-328
Yikes-- not a lot of help from either of these guys
2006
Frank Thomas (38) 270-381-545
The biggest hit of them all, and hopefully the model for Giambi
2007
Mike Piazza (38) 275-313-414
Injuries ended his career
2008
Frank (Round Two) 263-364-387
Ditto, probably.
So there is one unqualified success-- Thomas in 2006-- and a few other pretty solid seasons (Phillips and Velarde; Justice) Most have been some degree of bust, however-- usually due to physical limitations of one sort or another.
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Tim Raines
Where the hell was I during those 58 games?
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on Jan 9, 2009 8:50 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
seriously
I don’t remember him in an A’s uniform.
(i’m not saying windyfelix is wrong, i just don’t remember him)
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
by micdog2001 on Jan 9, 2009 10:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember going to an A's-DBacks
game at the BOB during Tim Hudson’s rookie year. Hudson outdueled Randy Johnson in that game and Tim “Rock” Raines hit a HR to lead off the game for 1 of the 2 runs the A’s would score in going on to the 2-0 win (I believe the 2nd run was set up by a botched throw over to first by RJ).
Man I loved watching Huddy pitch.
by AsFanInLA on Jan 9, 2009 10:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Windy, thanks for gathering this info
and posting it, I hope the A’s front office is reading it. Especially when you consider how much $ has been paid for those players and what other younger players could have been extended with the same money.
Conversely, I think the A’s have been too quick to decide who their keepers are and which ones are to be let go when they hit free agency. i think an opportune time to sign players under cost control is after they have finished their first three years or so at the ML minimum and lock up the three arb years PLUS A COUPLE MORE, which of course costs some dough.
They're called RUNS for a reason.
by connie mack on Jan 9, 2009 9:10 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
they've already done it
I’m not saying Giambi will be a bust— you pays your money and takes your chances. I am saying that most of these guys have been bargains for a reason— they’re pretty close to done.
by windyfelix on Jan 9, 2009 9:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
isn't some of the point of signing old vets to help teach the young guys?
I think I remember Velarde having a very strong work ethic that hopefully rubbed off on some of the young guys.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
by micdog2001 on Jan 9, 2009 10:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I STRONGLY DISAGREE
that the “A’s were more pleased with Justice than Halle Berry”
Have you seen Halle Berry?
"Baseball is like a church. Many attend, but few understand." - Wes Westrum
by oaklandfan40 on Jan 9, 2009 9:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
"than HB *was*"
a man has to have something to help the petite vanilla bean scones go down @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jan 9, 2009 9:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
thank you, monkeyball
Thought the meaning was obvious, since she dumped him
by windyfelix on Jan 9, 2009 9:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
I’d rather watch Halle.
"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."
-Charles Manson
by kaweahkaweah on Jan 9, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm warming to those black alt-home jerseys.
If you look real closely and concentrate, you can sort of see a stylized “A.”
… I’ll be in my bunk.
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Jan 9, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I know you're only going back to 1999...
But since Beane was also the GM in 1998, it might be worth it to include this fun group: Rickey Henderson and Kevin Mitchell (plus a 35 year old Dava Magadan and a 40 year old Tom Candiotti).
by Danny on Jan 9, 2009 9:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Candiotti
I remember using him in All-Star baseball 99 for N64. He was only A’s pitcher worth using because my cousin couldn’t hit his knuckelball (don’t try sneaking his 85 mph “fastball” past anyone). his curveball was servicable.
You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}
by micdog2001 on Jan 9, 2009 10:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What if Giambi does pull a Thomas?
Will he revitalize his career and sob leave us again?
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball." - Connie Mack
by GoA's on Jan 9, 2009 9:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'm still rooting for Beane to trade him back to the Yankees on June 16th.
a man has to have something to help the petite vanilla bean scones go down @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jan 9, 2009 9:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
unless he trades monkeyball for a handle of bananas
to be named later.
by mrod on Jan 9, 2009 6:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"You want the bananas?"
“You can’t handle the bananas!”
The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus
by The Dogfather on Jan 9, 2009 6:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Given the general rates of decay of non-elite players in this age group,
this is actually a fairly impressive track record.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 9:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
"Fairly Impressive"??
Not sure I’d go that far. But it certainly hasn’t been a failed strategy for a modest budget franchise.
by windyfelix on Jan 9, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This information needs to be put into context.
For instance, was Gant expected to do better than a .797 OPS in 2001?
Here are all of those players (excluding gant’s second stint) with their previous three years average OPS. The last listed number is the OPS they had with Oakland.
Phillips – .777 .795
Raines – .829 .675
Velarde – .812 .795
Stanley – .868 .768
Gant – .815 .797
Justice – .871 .786
Velarde – .793 .656
Myers – .698 .723
Karros – .733 .554
McLemore – .732 .683
Thomas – .951 .926
Piazza – .809 .727
Thomas – .896 .723
Only two players (Phillips and Myers) out-performed his previous average. Though I doubt anyone expected these old hitters to hold to that average. They probably expected a little decline.
That being said, 8 of these 13 instances saw significant drops in their OPS. By significant I mean over a .050 drop. Five of them dropped more than .100. Several others were close to the .100 mark.
I’d say that the track record isn’t that good.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on Jan 9, 2009 10:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
You have to control for park effect, friend
Which is why I didn’t even go down that route.
The real flop here is basically Eric Karros. Tim Raines was brought in for a song. Velarde worked once; and then in the wake of Ellis’ injury and the uncertainty that caused that was soon resolved in ME’s favor, he didn’t. Piazza was obviously a disappointment, as was Thomas the 2nd time around.
But most of the others are all pretty much in a reasonable return on investment category. Phillips, Justice, Velarde (1st time) and the Hurt all played regular roles— and did them fairly well.
by windyfelix on Jan 9, 2009 10:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that my analysis isn't complete...
Another thing to consider is how well their replacement would’ve been.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on Jan 9, 2009 10:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with reasonable... but not "fairly impressive"
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on Jan 9, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
as was Thomas the 2nd time around.
I think that triple he hit in Anaheim was more than worth what we paid him in 2008…. watching someone that big trucking around the bases was awesome.
by buddahead9 on Jan 9, 2009 11:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is an age at which non-elite players fall off a cliff without warning
Anybody who DOESN’T is an unqualified success. Asking GMs to find players who will IMPROVE on their prior track record at these ages is literally asking the impossible.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 11:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Right...
but on the other hand I’m sure they didn’t expect many of these signing to be as bad as they were. If they did expect it, then there’s no reason why they should have been signed in the first place.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on Jan 9, 2009 11:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There's no reason to sign a player if you expect he'll decline??
Take that philosophy and you might as well just not return the phone calls of anyone over the age of 32.
I’m sure the A’s knew Justice wasn’t the player he once was, but that doesn’t mean obtaining him was a failure, considering that his production remained very reasonable.
The question isn’t whether a player will remain as good as he was (for the most part, he won’t), but whether his anticipated decline will make him not worth the salary you have to pay for him. Most of these players were not as good as they were in prior years, but they weren’t paid the salaries that they had been paid during their prior years, either.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You missed my point... and are trying to put words in my mouth...
My point was that if they expected some of those players to decline as much as they did, then they should NOT have been signed… even at league minimum.
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
by brenarlo on Jan 9, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe in an ideal world
In the real world, where it takes weeks, months, sometimes years to figure out if a guy’s “still got it,” there’s often no way to tell without throwing him out there for a while and hoping. If you want to turn three potentially-done players into one decent starter, you’re going to have to put up with some crap in spring training and April. That doesn’t make the signings that don’t work out “a failure.” That’s a post facto judgment that does nothing to improve your future decisionmaking.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 10, 2009 2:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Now make another list
But this one with Brian Sabean’s past-35 record (basically all his signings).
by A'sian on Jan 9, 2009 10:18 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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