The Causes And Effects Of Maybe Getting "The Wrong Cabrera"
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 5:07 PM PST
265 comments
{OT NOTE: Ziggy an Angel? Today he is: Check it out and chat with him about it.}
Why would the A's even kick the tires on Orlando Cabrera, a modest upgrade from Crosby who will cost additional money and who also costs a draft pick? While I am not overly enthused over the idea of landing O. Cabrera, I am also not opposed because I can see both pros and cons. With this prose, let me focus on the pros.
"PRO" # THE FIRST ONE: Cabrera is an upgrade over the status flail, Bobby Crosby, to the tune of an estimated 2 wins or so. The thing about calculating "the number of wins" a player is worth is that it is not an exact science. Maybe Cabrera turns out to be more like just a (hardly different) one win upgrade, maybe more like a (actually pretty substantial) three win upgrade, you don't know. What you know is that it's an upgrade and when you appear to be on the cusp of competing, and you only have so many positions you can hope to upgrade, sometimes you take upgrades where you can, even if they seem potentially marginal.
In other words, a slightly better hitter and slightly better fielder at SS moves you another step in the right direction for fielding a playoff-caliber team. No doubt the standard deviation created by health, luck, and surprises far exceed the standard deviation of the upgrade from Crosby to Cabrera. At the same time, your team that is pretty good no doubt has a better chance to be good with Cabrera at SS than with Crosby.
"PRO" # THE SECOND ONE: Cabrera is a little better than his stats, which are deflated by the fact that he does not walk, or drive the ball, often enough to sport a good OPS and is not spectacular on defense.
Batting leadoff or second in the order, as Cabrera has often done, he is a liability, but batting 9th his strengths can be used rather than his weaknesses just being exposed. Everyone's #9 hitter gets out 70% of the time and everyone's #9 hitter is no slugger, so Cabrera is not hurting you relative to "position" as a #9 hitter. However, he bunts, hits behind the runner, and puts the ball in play especially well, allowing his team to play "small ball" at the bottom of the order as a balance to the "take and rake" ball Oakland will be playing with Cust, Holliday, Giambi, and Chavez.
Defensively, Cabrera is no whiz but he is sure-handed and fundamentally sound. He won't make great plays or show tremendous range, but he also will make the plays he is there to make with far fewer "unforced errors" than Crosby is prone to making.
"PRO" # THE THIRD ONE: Don't be too sure that Cabrera's price tag will be nearly as much as feared. Giambi's sure wasn't, the market is awfully soft this year for non-superstars, and the A's made it clear months ago that their interest in Cabrera would be "later, if he were still available and cheap." The A's have some payroll flexibility this year but that does not change their status as a small-market team feeling the pinch of this deep recession. If the A's sign Cabrera, we might all be pleasantly surprised at the terms of the deal.
"PRO" # THE FOURTH ONE: I'm actually at the point of irrationally wanting a different failure if the alternative is the same failure. Orlando Cabrera is not Bobby Crosby - where do I sign up?
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Maybe it's because the A's don't normally sign FA's
or maybe it’s because my irrational hatred of Bobby Crosby or maybe it’s my longing for the old days of Miguel Tejada, but I’m actually kinda excited about the A’s possibly acquiring Cabrera. I would certainly be a lot more excited about getting Hardy, but hey, I guess in my heart as a fan it’s fun to get new faces to replace the faces that have disappointed you.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Jan 8, 2009 5:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
But you'd also be disappointed about whoever was leaving to get Hardy
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Jan 8, 2009 6:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Like someone else said in some other thread---
You should be GM!
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Jan 8, 2009 6:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's unpossible!
Cabrera is a little better than his stats
a man has to have something to help the petite vanilla bean scones go down @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jan 8, 2009 5:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
it is possible
if he is a gamer who possesses grit and does the little things and is a glue guy who leads the team with his grit guts and grit.. hes got some intangibles that will turn this team into a world champion.
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
by travdog6 on Jan 8, 2009 5:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Like he did when he replaced Nomar "Only as good as his stats" Garciaparra in 2004
or he sort of did with the White Sox in 2008 — making them a winner again.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 8, 2009 5:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
untangibles
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Jan 8, 2009 9:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I laughed at this, but I'm not familiar enough with travdog to know if I should be laughing at him or with him
by thejd44 on Jan 8, 2009 9:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
with me
it was indeed sarcasm
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
by travdog6 on Jan 8, 2009 10:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I find it's always good to laugh first
and then laugh later. Should help explain my life to date.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 8, 2009 10:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
so does that mean your life is one big joke?
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
by travdog6 on Jan 9, 2009 1:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed
I found out long ago the difference between telling and being a joke
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 9, 2009 1:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh crap, there's a difference?
"When I was a kid, having someone correct your grammar was a sign that they cared and wanted you to present yourself in the best possible light. That being said, you should really learn the difference between plurals and possessives." -- RS
by oblique on Jan 9, 2009 9:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Just pretend I didn't say anything
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 10, 2009 3:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
TEAM CHEMISTRY, GUYS
so therefore, Barry Bonds is only a lot unbetter than his stats
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 8, 2009 7:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i dunno how much i buy into that
i mean team chemistry is great and all but i have a hard time believing it helps people hit or field better. i dont think bobby crosby would suddenly learn not to swing at a low and away slider because his bff is playing second
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
by travdog6 on Jan 8, 2009 9:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i said that in a half jest
but i do think there is something to be said about team chemistry, though not that it has a huge impact in baseball. I think in other team sports when players and outcomes aren’t so isolated (a batter bats by himself at the plate in baseball, etc. whereas a basketball player needs teammates in order to succeed) chemistry plays a bit more of a role. I think having good “chemistry” or “environment” lends itself to winning because players have a positive attitude, which can sometimes give them that extra “oomph” in a game. Don’t get me wrong, its not that athletes don’t try hard every game, but I think caring for your teamates helps provide a winning environment.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 8, 2009 9:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
good points
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
by travdog6 on Jan 8, 2009 9:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Does it matter than Cabrera is also a douchebag who seems to be disliked by a lot of his teammates?
Hell, the White Sox were trying to trade him last MAY, that’s how unpopular he was.
by thejd44 on Jan 8, 2009 10:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He understands
How to be part of a team that is greater than the sum of it’s parts and dedicated to winning a championship you see
by jeffro on Jan 9, 2009 9:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cons
Well, since I’ve taken up the Con position here, I’ll offer a response to the Pros.
“PRO” # THE FIRST ONE: Cabrera is an upgrade over the status flail, Bobby Crosby, to the tune of an estimated 2 wins or so.
I’m not convinced that that’s correct. I think the expectations of Cabrera’s defense are too high, partly because they seem to be based off of one year’s statistics and partly because I don’t see anyone taking into account that he’s getting on towards his mid-30s.
Second, while Cabrera projects to be a better hitter, I think he has significantly more downside, whereas while no one expects Crosby to hit like he did in 2005, I think the consensus is he can’t get any worse.
“PRO” # THE SECOND ONE: Cabrera is a little better than his stats, which are deflated by the fact that he does not walk, or drive the ball, often enough to sport a good OPS and is not spectacular on defense.
I’m not even sure what that means. He’s better than his stats because he’s a bad hitter? A player who doesn’t walk or drive the ball often enough to sport a good OPS is a BAD hitter. I’m not saying Cabrera isn’t an above-average defensive shortstop, but overall I think the amount of improvement we can expect from Crosby to Cabrera isn’t worth what we’re likely to pay, even at a discount rate.
“PRO” # THE THIRD ONE: Don’t be too sure that Cabrera’s price tag will be nearly as much as feared. Giambi’s sure wasn’t, the market is awfully soft this year for non-superstars, and the A’s made it clear months ago that their interest in Cabrera would be “later, if he were still available and cheap.” The A’s have some payroll flexibility this year but that does not change their status as a small-market team feeling the pinch of this deep recession. If the A’s sign Cabrera, we might all be pleasantly surprised at the terms of the deal.
If Cabrera signed for the exact contract Giambi signed, I wouldn’t hate the deal but I’d still think it’d be too much for too little, and the lost draft pick only makes that worse. Do you think that’d be all it’ll take to sign Cabrera? I don’t, but I freely admit I could be wrong. What do you think?
“PRO” # THE FOURTH ONE: I’m actually at the point of irrationally wanting a different failure if the alternative is the same failure. Orlando Cabrera is not Bobby Crosby – where do I sign up?
Yeah but the same failure’s already paid for. Why pay more just to have Pepsi-branded failure-pop when there’s a case of CokeFail in the fridge?
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 5:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think he goes on to explain number 2 a little further
although I have been known to read things that aren’t really there. A little gift my ex- left me.
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on Jan 8, 2009 5:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Eh, not really.
Saying that Cabrera shouldn’t be hitting leadoff isn’t really impacting the argument since I don’t think anyone was proposing that Crosby do so. With our team right now, Crosby would hit 9th. If Cabrera were signed, he would hit 9th, (if he doesn’t, Beane should smack Geren.) The difference still comes down to Cabrera vs Crosby. The rest is just specifying how Cabrera is better defensively.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 5:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What I'm trying to say is that
when Crosby comes up with two on and nobody out, he pops up a bunt, whereas Cabrera bunts the runners over. When Crosby comes up with a runner at third and one out, he lunges at a changeup and pops up (or waves at a slider and strikes out), whereas Cabrera hits a sac fly (or RBI bouncer to second), and so on.
In other words, some of the things Cabrera does that do not increase his OBP or his OPS are helpful, whereas when Crosby doesn’t walk or get an extra base hit – which is, like, often – he almost never helps you in any way.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 6:11 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Please don't tell me
that the reasoning behind spending millions of dollars on Orlando Cabrera would be the sacrifice bunt. I think I’d have to find some other team.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 6:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nate. Nico.
Same number of letters and that whole “N” thing, I know, but different names nonetheless.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 6:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not avid about the "little things"
What I do believe is that some .700 OPS hitters are more helpful to an offense than other .700 OPS hitters. However, no .700 OPS hitter is more helpful than any .800 OPS hitter.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 6:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but
you’d need to be one HELL of a .700 OPS hitter to be worth millions more (plus a draft pick) than another .700 OPS hitter. I don’t think Cabrera fits that bill.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 6:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Like it or not, the standard is Crosby,
whose stunningly bad .645 OPS last year was rivaled only by his even more stunningly bad .619 and .636 OPSes in 2007 and 2006.
Right now, that’s what the A’s have (and you can’t project Pennington or Petit to do any better, with any certainty). That’s the curve against which Cabrera has to be measured (and against which Crosby will surely whiff).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 6:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and if I thought Cabrera
were likely to produce a .750 OPS and provide two wins of defensive improvement, I would say there is no question we should be going after him.
That’s not what I expect he’s going to do, though. I think a .700 OPS and a win of defensive improvement is an optimistic projection of Cabrera, and that’s just not enough improvement to justify spending millions and giving up a draft pick.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 7:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, you did just describe a win of defensive improvement,
and an improvement at SS of around 55-65 points of OPS. That sounds like around a two-win upgrade, doesn’t it?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I called that "optimistic"
I think the defensive improvement will be less than a win, and I think the OPS difference will be more like 40.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 7:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In that case, the amount you should be willing
to spend on Cabrera should be lower – but not non-existent. If he’s available cheap enough then a slight upgrade offensively and defensively is still worth it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well as I'd asked before
How cheap is cheap enough? I would consider the Giambi contract, were Cabrera to sign the same deal, to be borderline. I would think we’d spend too much for too little, but I wouldn’t hate the deal.
Where I become skeptical is that a 34 year-old shortstop signs the same deal as a 38 year-old 1B/DH. Now, obviously Giambi is a massively better hitter, but I just think the amount I’d be willing to spend on the improvement Cabrera will provide is significantly less than what it’d cost to get him, bad economy notwithstanding.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 7:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Could we get him
for a bag of nickels and a frozen squirrel daiquiri?
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on Jan 8, 2009 7:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Only if it's a really big bag
or a ginormous squirrel.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How about a bag o' squirrels?
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 8, 2009 10:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Unless he is truly dirt cheap
Id rather have Crosby.
This guy is a cancer, not that I think that matters much and he is PURE DOWNSIDE.
At least Crosby showed some minor offensive improvement last year and his defense will probably rebound a bit. He started the season off quite poorly if I recall.
Also, if the A’s are contenders with Cabrera, Joe Morgan and co will proclaim that O-Cabs small ball is the key to their success. F That.
I know, I know its irrational not to want the better option. But I really think he is going to start declining severely and even a second round draft pick can turn into Jason Giambi.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on Jan 8, 2009 11:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose, to add some rationality to my argument...
It seems to me like Cabrera is much more likely to be the better player, but Crosby has more variance and in unlikely outcomes he reaches the highest potential…
It might take some such performance for the A’s to be a legitimate contender….as depressing as that is.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on Jan 9, 2009 12:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you underestimate the extent of that improvement, and how much $ it is worth
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Jan 8, 2009 7:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Uh, yes, it is
You’re radically underestimating how much it costs to buy wins on the free agent market.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 1:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, I'm correctly estimating it.
It’s incredibly expensive, and that’s why we shouldn’t do it. I’m projecting Cabrera as a 1-win improvement and expecting him to cost between $7-9MM per year, plus the draft pick. Even if he ended up as a 2-win improvement, which is what those less down on Cabrera than me seem to think, it’d still be a high price, and the price will only get higher with any additional seasons we need to tack on to sign him, (expecting Cabrera to sign a 1-year deal is even more optimistic than thinking he’ll be a 2-win improvement).
by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 1:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
so if they sign cabrera
what could they possibly get for crosby? the idea of $5.25mil (?) sitting on the bench and also paying cabrera and giving up the draft pick sucks a little extra.
since crosby cleared waivers, i’m assuming a bag of balls, some powdered gatorade, and half a bag of beechnut might be about the only thing the A’s could get in return.
i prefer my chances with crosby/petit/etc with all things ($ and draft pick) considered.
by jlanning17 on Jan 9, 2009 5:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Lament and Mission Statement
As the AN community grows ever more robust, contributions from posters I have come to enjoy during the past couple of years are diminished as a subset of the encompassing cacophony. While said subset does occasionally expand, the overall trend is, alas, inexorable (change is ruthless! history does not pause for my petty concerns!). Nevertheless, I have decided to fight the good fight, to battle until the bitter end under the banner of quality to cacophony ratio stabilization. Since I’m merely a pseudonymous Internet person adrift in a haze of generational malaise, swords and shields and chain armor will probably be less prominent in this fight than persistent, obnoxious cajoling.
Upshot: Please post more frequently.
Actual baseball comment
What is the problem with paying $7 million for a modest upgrade, so long as money is the only (meaningful) expenditure? What present or future improvements will the A’s not make because they spent this money? What young player’s development will be stunted? Which free agent(s) will it cause us not to sign?
You can argue that Cabrera’s on-the-field value will not match the dollars amounts in his hyopthetical contract, but if the answers to my second, third, and fourth questions above are “none, none, and none,” that contention sort of dwindles into cut-your-nose-off-to-spite-your-face-ism.
I understand your concern regarding the draft pick, but as PT pointed out in the other thread, it would not really be such a terrible blow.
If there is room in the budget, and the money will otherwise just rot in the team coffers, I’ll take the upgrade, however marginal.
by 74mk on Jan 9, 2009 6:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the A’s are typically a fiscally responsible organization. i think itt’s pretty well established that they try to spend efficiently. i think the money would be better used to either pay for a SP (definite need) or retain flexibility so that the team could take on a player who is more than a marginal improvement through a trade at some point in the season.
you never know what will happen during the rest of the off-season or during the regular season. flexibility/insurance is a good thing.
by jlanning17 on Jan 9, 2009 6:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
and i don’t know where this mysterious pitcher we are supposed to sign to better our club is going to come from. If you think O Cab is too expensive for the 2 win upgrade (IMO), then how are we going to be signing Sheets, Lowe, or probably even Wolf etc.
It would be nice to have another SP, don’t get me wrong, but for a cheaper price, we would be able to get the same amount of win upgrade at SS.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 9, 2009 7:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
response to meta-suggestion
High-quality but occasional contributors should be merged to artificially “increase” their output. For example: bearNatey-Nate
a man has to have something to help the petite vanilla bean scones go down @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jan 9, 2009 9:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Money can always be spent elsewhere.
What is the problem with paying $7 million for a modest upgrade, so long as money is the only (meaningful) expenditure?
As the title notes, money doesn’t lose it’s value. (Well, in a macro sense, maybe, but not between now and February.) If there are better improvements that can be made. It’s established that I don’t agree with the Cabrera-boosters as to how much of an upgrade he represents over Crosby. I think Cabrera is a one-win improvement. Sheets, for example, I think would be more like a 3-3.5 win upgrade over whoever the 5th starter is likely to be. PT’s estimate of $12-15M to sign Sheets seems about right to me, and I think that’d be an example of money better spent.
Even if Sheets doesn’t prove to be obtainable, that $7M in the bank could be used to pay for half a season of a much larger upgrade halfway through the season. Spending the money on half of a season of a 3-win upgrade (netting us 1.5 wins) is a better use of that money than getting one win out of Cabrera.
by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
In-season acquisitions are generically inefficient buys. They require the buyer to give up talent AND money.
I highly doubt Sheets is a 3-win upgrade over the A’s #5 starter. His Marcel line puts him at something like 12 runs above an average starter over 150 innings pitched. The A’s #5 would have to be virtually replacement level to be worth 3 wins less than Sheets (18 runs below average per 150 innings— that’s about a 6 ERA in a neutral park). Sheets would have to be either much better or much healthier than he’s projected to be to be a 3-win upgrade, unless the A’s #5-8 starters are all just horrible.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you sure you're reading the Marcel line right?
Chone lists Sheets as 30 runs over replacement over 148 IP, and Marcel is more bullish on Sheets than Chone is. 30 runs is 4 wins over replacement, and I could easily see the A’s 5th starter being one win above replacement.
by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
30 RAR is not far off from 12 RAA
Over 150 innings, an average starter is something like 15 RAR.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 11:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, 30 runs is 3 wins over replacement... not 4...
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 11:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know who will be the A’s #5 starter will be, but I have a hard time believing the team won’t win 3 more games by substituting Sheets as a starter.
by Lovejoy on Jan 9, 2009 5:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They'd probably win 3 more if Sheets was healthy for 33 starts
I don’t think that’s likely.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 11:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think it would take near that many starts.
by Lovejoy on Jan 10, 2009 5:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know, Nate
I think you might be overvaluing value.
You said this:
Even if Sheets doesn’t prove to be obtainable, that $7M in the bank could be used to pay for half a season of a much larger upgrade halfway through the season.
And this to grover below:
As I’ve said, if Cabrera signed for the exact contract Giambi signed for, I wouldn’t hate the deal (though I still wouldn’t be certain we couldn’t do better,) if it’s in the $7-9MM range, then it’s too much.
Given the choice, I’d opt for Sheets as well, but assume for the moment that the A’s can’t get him. Maybe he signs with the Mets. Maybe he takes up Jainism and renounces baseball in order to focus exclusively on his spiritual development. Maybe Beane decides to give the money to Esteban Loaiza instead. Whatever the case, he’s dead to us. Also consider:
1. There are no SS upgrades the be culled from within the A’s system
2. Available FA upgrades are dwindling to non-existence
3. Trades cost cash and players
You said you’d want to keep that $7M in reserve to deploy at a hypothetical future moment, but you also said it would be okay to spend $5M of it on Cabrera. Given the dearth of alternatives, is it worth taking a value-for-value’s-sake stand over ~$2M? Do you really believe that amount would limit the A’s freedom of action in terms of trades and further signings? I don’t.
The “don’t sign him at all” argument makes a lot more sense to me than the “sign him for $5M, but not $7M” position, though the logic of former still largely rests on the wobbly presumption that better deals must be out there somewhere, even if (beyond Ben Sheets) we don’t know what they are or whether they’re feasible.
by 74mk on Jan 10, 2009 5:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Given the dearth of alternatives, is it worth taking a value-for-value’s-sake stand over ~$2M?
Would you have wanted us to sign Furcal for 4 years/$51M? It’d only be $2M/year more than the Dodgers paid for him. It’d also be risking way too much for a guy in his thirties with injury issues.
The "don’t sign him at all" argument makes a lot more sense to me than the "sign him for $5M, but not $7M" position,
“Don’t sign him at all” is my position, I just said I wouldn’t hate it if we signed him for $5M/1 year. I’ve also said repeatedly that I do not expect us to get him for that low a contract and only one year.
by Nate on Jan 10, 2009 12:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
I may have inadvertently exaggerated the extent of our disagreement. I don’t mean to imply that the terms of the deal don’t matter, or that we ought to give Orlando Cabrera anything he wants.
Nevertheless:
1. 1 year/$7M is not comparable to 4 years/$51M in terms of risk, budgetary impact, long term roster constraints, etc. As PT is fond of saying, those are two entirely different kettles of fish.
2. Whatever contract Cabrera eventually secures (1 year, 2 years, $5M per, $8M per), I suspect it won’t be so onerous as to severely hamstring his employer’s market maneuverability.
3. Aside from never-going-to-happen trade scenarios we dream up on AN in order to pass the time, there just aren’t many (any?) realistic upgrade alternatives remaining.
4. As sal says somewhere below, if we really are in an on-paper dead heat with the Angels, we ought to seize marginal upgrades wherever we can, even if it means overpaying (especially if that overpayment in contained within a one year deal).
5. I think we (not you, necessarily) too often couch our trade/FA signing assessments in myopic interpretations of value – “Player A will perform at X level, which is worth Y dollars, therefore we should not pay him Y+1” – when of course proportion (#‘s 1 and 2) and context (#’s 3 and 4) are important parts of the calculus.
by 74mk on Jan 10, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Could you repeat that last formula?
I’m lousy with math early in the morning or this late at night.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jan 10, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Setting the price
I’m not a fan of O-Cab, but I can live with almost any player on a 1 year deal. Would you be opposed to signing Cabrera to a 1 year deal plus team option?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jan 9, 2009 8:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
For how much?
As I’ve said, if Cabrera signed for the exact contract Giambi signed for, I wouldn’t hate the deal (though I still wouldn’t be certain we couldn’t do better,) if it’s in the $7-9MM range, then it’s too much.
by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 3:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Just to throw numbers at you...
1 year/$7 million guaranteed plus an $8.5 million option with a $2 million kicker?
Adjust from there if you feel the need.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jan 9, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think I too would pass on 7 mil
I have a feeling his price may come way down to 5 mil, in which case I’d go for it.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 9, 2009 7:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yea, it doesn't seem right that O. Cabrera would be making more than Giambi.
Granted, the situations are different, but damn..
by mikev on Jan 9, 2009 10:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tomato Tequila?
Sounds gross. I don’t wanna.
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on Jan 8, 2009 7:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Then stay away from the ToMAHto tequila
It’s overRAHted.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I was unaware you were a Harvard alum.
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on Jan 8, 2009 7:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So was I - when I started getting the Alumni newsletter,
I did a little research into “the blackout years” and discovered I graduated cum laude. Which I thought was terribly vulgar and inappropriate, but it turns out to be a compliment.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
When I run a television network,
“The Blackout Years” will definitely be part of the schedule. Trust me: it’s a comedy goldmine.
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on Jan 8, 2009 7:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice NATO
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Jan 8, 2009 9:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
"When I was a kid, having someone correct your grammar was a sign that they cared and wanted you to present yourself in the best possible light. That being said, you should really learn the difference between plurals and possessives." -- RS
by oblique on Jan 9, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ok
i’m sufficiently drunk to ask what in lord’s name is “NATO?” (unless of course you mean NATO in the military sense, in which case my mind is just blown.)
and also what was TWSS?
i need to know these things.
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
by walk off bunt on Jan 9, 2009 12:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
NATO-pun
mikev asked me if I was arguing with myself because I was arguing with Nico. I posted to note that Nico and Nate weren’t the same name. iglew moved the letters around.
I’m betting you’re not drunk enough to find this interesting.
by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 1:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm accustomed to my obscure references
going over everyone’s head. I often aim them way too high.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Jan 9, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera was rated a 78 by the Fans Scouting Report in 2007 and 67 in 2008
There are two years — not one — of very good defense based not on numbers, which shows a decline but he’s still substantially better than average. If he declines to 60, he’d still be better than average. Any further objections to his defense?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 8, 2009 5:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I had no previous objections to his defense.
I objected to the assumptions behind assigning a particular value to his defense that has been done here and elsewhere. If Cabrera declined to 60 on a metric where Crosby scored a 56 in 2008, I think that would strongly support my point that the marginal improvement Cabrera provided would not be worth what it would likely cost to sign him.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 5:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's more that Crosby's defense has become below average,
largely due to more and more bad throws, many on routine plays. Cabrera is not much above average, but he might still be a couple notches up from Crosby.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 6:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Neither fielding metrics
nor the Fans Scouting Report WC linked to suggest Crosby is a below average defender.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 6:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's ok, but his defense has gotten poorer
every bit as much as Cabrera’s has. You can cite “games played” as a possible factor, but I’m not entirely convinced that’s the main cause. He has very poor throwing mechanics; plus a “head case” at the plate is unlikely to be anything else in the field and some of Crosby’s throws on routine plays scream, “psych!”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 6:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, going by UZR
(and if folks want to say UZR just isn’t valid, they’re welcome to do so, but I just don’t trust a single pair of eyes when it comes to judging defense, whether their mine or yours) this is Crosby’s year-by-year, (I’ll use UZR/150 to try to normalize Crosby’s half-seasons with the two full ones:
2004: 3.5
2005: 16.7
2006: -1.1
2007: 4.5
2008: 0.0
I kinda feel like 2005 was Crosby’s potential, both offensively and defensively. Maybe they were both outliers or his 95th percentile performance, but that’s kinda the upper range. Pretty much the rest of what we’ve seen has been the actual Crosby. The numbers say he’s pretty average. Whether he’s gotten help playing between Chavez and Ellis (or, in last year’s case, Hannahan and Ellis,) I don’t know, but if he’s degraded, it seems like he’s gone from slightly above average down to average.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 6:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't get me wrong, I'm not going to trust my eyes
over UZR on this one. I would say Crosby is “average to slightly below,” or 45-50 on a 100-point scale. Which is basically saying that 2006 or 2008 accurately reflects his true defense going forward.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I always
think I’m gonna eat all that shortstop, but then I get about halfway through and realize I’ve overdone it again and…
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on Jan 8, 2009 7:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mama's little baby loves loves shortstop, shortstop
Mama’s little baby loves shortstop bread
a man has to have something to help the petite vanilla bean scones go down @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jan 9, 2009 2:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I have no idea why I lauged at this
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 9, 2009 9:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
An important part of this
is that, if I remember correctly, Cabrera’s defensive numbers vary pretty greatly from year to year for the last few seasons. Bobby Crosby’s, at least since 2006, have done no such thing.
Meaning that I think it’s quite possible Cabrera could put up an abnormally good season, while I have no reason to have any sort of similar faith in Crosby. And it’s likely Cabrera is an ever-so-slightly better hitter than Bobbeh, (though, to be fair, not al that much better.)
(And I need to assert that while I think Cabrera is a distinct upgrade over Crosby, I do not think Cabrera represents a significant upgrade over him. And, when you consider that we have to give up a draft pick for our efforts (and cash), it is just not worth the bother (contrary to what I earlier thought, when I was extensively proven wrong on my mistaken idea that there was a deadline arbitration-offered players could reach to not cost a draft pick.)
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
by walk off bunt on Jan 9, 2009 12:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus/Minus had Crosby at -13 last year
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jan 9, 2009 8:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Most of those fans voting in 2007 are Angels fans
Who regularly listen to two really dumb announcers say how great he is for not making errors.
by thejd44 on Jan 8, 2009 10:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You didn't mention that not only do they pay Cabrera
Unless somebody takes Crosby AND pays his salary, you have to consider BoCro’s contract as a part of this equation.
by thejd44 on Jan 8, 2009 10:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
My objection is that Orlando's a one year solution, and I'd rather get a 4 year solution
through trade. Orlando makes sense if the 4 year solution is a year away, like DeJesus might be.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 8, 2009 5:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
My rebuttal is that a one-year solution
is better than a zero-year solution, and also buys you a year to identify a four-year solution. For example, it might be a lot cheaper to get Hardy for 2010 when he has only a year left on his contract, and it might be easier to get Peralta once Valbuena, Asdrubal, and Hodges/Mills have progressed, etc.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 6:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus a 1 year solution that loses a pick
might gain it back the following year when he shuffles himself back into free agency.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
by DMOAS on Jan 8, 2009 6:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The odds of Orlando being offered arbitration and declining next year have to be somewhere between 0 and negative eleventy billion.
by thejd44 on Jan 8, 2009 10:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Put it in the language of the contract
And consider that it happened this year.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
by DMOAS on Jan 8, 2009 10:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Can we put in the language of Giambi's contract
that it’s 2001?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 10:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
as much as i love the a's
eight more years of bush?
when did we stop using adverbs proper?
by alea iacta est on Jan 8, 2009 11:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
just tell her to shave it
oh not that kind
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
by travdog6 on Jan 9, 2009 12:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i said a's
not ass
when did we stop using adverbs proper?
by alea iacta est on Jan 9, 2009 12:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Between the two of you.
that was a rather impressive showing of out-grossing one another.
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
by walk off bunt on Jan 9, 2009 1:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
thank you very much
i did my very best, but unfortunately it appears i couldnt win
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
by travdog6 on Jan 9, 2009 1:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We already have a one-year solution
It’s not a particularly good solution, but then neither is Cabrera.
And Cabrera may be a one-year solution, but he’s a multi-year problem. You think we’re really going to get him on a one-year deal?
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 6:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It wouldn't be a terrible idea for Cabrera
With neither Furcal nor Hardy headlining the available shortstops, 2010 might be a pretty good year to be a SS FA.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 6:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hardy wasn't available this year,
and the only way Cabrera’s stock goes UP is if he actually hits better. If Cabrera’s agent is counting on him to hit better outside of US Cellular, he’s either going to Coors or he needs a new agent.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 7:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What I meant is that Hardy will be available in 2011
Cabrera’s stock is impacted by supply and demand. If he repeats a .700 OPS and repeats solid defense, he might do better in 2010 than he did in 2009, especially if the economy picks up.
I wouldn’t be too obsessed with park effects, either. GMs do know about them, and stats that adjust for park effect are now pretty mainstream.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Then why are we talking about OPS?
I’m not sure Cabrera would have a .700 OPS in Oakland.
by mikev on Jan 8, 2009 7:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because Cabrera's OPS+, park adjusted stats, etc.
are superior to Crosby’s every year. He’s simply a better hitter – by way of being only a little below average instead of gawdawful.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
By how much?
He’s put up 81, 91, 95 and 84. That’s not a little below average. That’s a little better than gawdawful
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 7:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Right -- it's been gone over.
Even to the point that PT thought it would be cool to act all condescending toward me and tell me to “go look at the projections” in which I figured Cabrera was a 1 win upgrade over Crosby.
Of course, then I’m told that the Crosby projections are just too optimistic, because apparently they don’t look how PT thinks they should, nevermind that he did an entire series of Fanposts using those projections.
by mikev on Jan 8, 2009 7:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Resentment are our number one offender.
They kill more…oh, sorry. Wrong forum. Resent away.
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on Jan 8, 2009 7:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, you tell me
Do YOU think Crosby will have a .684 OPS next year, or whatever the James projection has him at?
Didn’t think so. Those projections (just talking about Bill James, so we’re clear) are known to be overly optimistic for hitters. They aren’t reliable, and pro analysts do not really take them seriously. The gap between the two is larger in every reliable system that I’ve seen so far.
My fanpost series was, I hate to break it to you, done using my highly unscientific “PT Projections,” in which I (shock! skandal!) make educated guesses about how players will likely play next season using available info.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 1:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You know that Cabrera's projection
in the overly optimistic Bill James system is for a .705 OPS, right? Which is exactly where CHONE projected him. (CHONE projects Crosby at .660)
by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 1:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure what your point is
A bad system thinks the gap is small. Good systems think the gap is large.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 1:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How many wins are you figuring 45 points is accounting for?
by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 1:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And that 45 points is (usually) park neutral
Cabrera won’t hit as well in Oakland as he did in Chicago.
by thejd44 on Jan 9, 2009 6:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I used an average of James and Marcel.
I don’t pretend to know which is better, but I think it’s laughable that you’re so quick to dismiss one of them because it doesn’t fit what you believe. That’s all.
by mikev on Jan 9, 2009 7:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"So quick"?
I’ve been doing this stuff for years. I know, by and large, what sources are reliable. Bill James projections are not reliable.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure either
and I damn sure don’t want us spending millions for another sub .700 OPS at shortstop when we’re already doing so.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 7:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera's going to be a year older in 2010
Yes, which is why Cabrera’s performance in USCF is all the more of a concern. The whole idea of Cabrera being better than Crosby is weakened when you realize that the 60 point difference in OPS is weakened by the respective park effects of Oakland and Chicago.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 7:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So tell me, who do you think was a better hitter last season?
I don’t mean that in a snarky way, I’m really just wondering – do you feel they were equal? Was Crosby better? Was Cabrera better? What do you think?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera was better
By at most about a half-win. I think the certainty that Cabrera will remain that much better is dubious, and I think he falls quite a bit short of average, let alone good.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 7:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera is probably a better baserunner...
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 8, 2009 7:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Crosby was good on basepaths last year wasnt he?
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
by ChadGod on Jan 8, 2009 11:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Since "good on the basepaths" seems to be as much about intelliegence as speed
I’d say not likely. Cabrera doesn’t appear to be a very heady player.
by thejd44 on Jan 9, 2009 6:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
According to Bill James...
Crosby was a +6 running the bases, a +1 SB threat.
Total score: +7
Cabrera was a -5 running the bases, a +7 SB threat.
Total score : +2
Scores are based on percentage vs. league average. Baserunning includes 1st – 3rd, 1st – Home, 2nd – Home, balks, advancing on WP, SF. SB = SB minus CS
So in terms of just running the bases and not including SB, last year Crosby was +11 plays better than Cabrera.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jan 9, 2009 8:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ok fair enough, i don't know where to find said baser running metrics
i was kind of going more on the SB totals from the past. i was wrong, and i admit it. but O Cab is still better.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 9, 2009 1:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera is an average SS going forward (he's been better than average the last few years)
He would in no sense be a “problem.” Crosby sucks. He is a problem. He is not a solution.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Jan 8, 2009 7:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera has not been better than average.
Cabrera’s OPS has been .674, .739, .742 and .705 the last four years. Even for shortstops that’s not better than average.
With defense that’s only been a win above average in that period, if he’s been above average at all, it’s by a very small amount.
And your belief that a 34 year-old athlete’s abilities won’t decline going forward is perplexing.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 7:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Except for the .674, four years ago, that is definitely above average for SS
So—above average offense and above average defense. That is above average. Sure, he’ll decline. That’s why I predict “average” for this year. Let’s say “somewhat below average” for 2010. That has substantial value, especially given the A’s SS situation.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Jan 8, 2009 7:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
average SS going forward
i’m not sure i would count on cabrera to be an average SS and crosby to be a replacement level SS, i think the gap between the two next year will be closer than that.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Jan 8, 2009 11:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
sign Cabrera to a minor league deal
How far does Orlando Cabrera have to fall, before a team might be able to pull a Shannon Stewart to the Jays move. Last winter Shannon signed a minor league contract with the Jays and was invited to Spring training. Not sure there is a rule against it, but give him a 5 million signing bonus and a minor league deal that gives him a quarter million every month he is on the majors roster.
One would think the MLB would not be happy, but they sure did not do much last year when the A’s did not get their due pick for Stewart.
by dougald1 on Jan 8, 2009 6:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
One thing that some of us should be considering that I don't think those same some...
…of us are: that the supposed red-tag sale on the contract for Giambi could be highly misleading and could be distorting what some of us feel has happened in the FA market. Giambi is getting a $5 million contract buyout from the Yankess for not picking up his option year. However, I cannot explain the Burrell signing by the Rays — which also came on the cheap; he had no contract buyout coming to him…perhaps he just wanted to go back to Florida.
by LowcountryJoe on Jan 8, 2009 6:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
In house
I am not yet familiar with the projection tools. Can someone do a simple offensive and defensive projection for Petit, Pennington, Crosby and Cabrera side-by-side?
My gut says Petit can provide a defensive upgrade over Cabrera with a manageable decrease in offensive projection. However, if there is anything I’ve learned on this site it is that the numbers need to back it up before it becomes a reasonable argument.
Any takers?
If the A's can build around Holiday, Furcal, Cust, and maybe call up 2nd baseman Wes Childs at some point in the year, they have a shot to take a weak AL West. -- jameersju post on ESPN.com
by youdownwithOBP on Jan 8, 2009 6:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The only projection system that does defense is ZIPS
and all it really does is assign pretty vague categories like “average” or “fair”. I’m not even sure if it’s a projection so much as a classification of past performance. Crosby, Petit and Pennington were all labeled as “Average”. I haven’t found a 2009 ZIPS projection for Cabrera, but 2008 labeled him average as well.
by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 6:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Petit is hard to judge, because like Cunningham,
he was stunningly mediocre in the field with Oakland, but Petit has a great reputation as a slick fielder.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 6:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
It’d be great to have evidence FOR Petit and AGAINST Cabrera but it seems all I can really point to with any sense of reason is- Petit hasn’t been an ass (to my knowledge), Cabrera has been an ass, angel and red so(ck) 1, 2, 3 strikes you’re out. Not to mention he is more expensive than Petit.
If the A's can build around Holiday, Furcal, Cust, and maybe call up 2nd baseman Wes Childs at some point in the year, they have a shot to take a weak AL West. -- jameersju post on ESPN.com
by youdownwithOBP on Jan 8, 2009 6:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing about Petit is that his OPS was .666 in AAA,
which doesn’t offend just the devoutly religious, it also reflects that if you think Cabrera doesn’t walk or hit for power you should check out Gregorio.
You have to consider it a possibility that if given the starting job for a year in the big leagues, Petit would produce an offensive line of something like .220/.270/.340.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That line is pretty awful
but if it provides Billy the financial freedom to get some pitching. I’ll take it.
Your argument for the 9th spot (regarding Cabrera) is incredibly valid and probably the only reason I think a good deal on Cabrera could be worthwhile. However, Cabrera would really have to perform offensively to be an ‘upgrade’ in my mind.
Crosby is frustrating, Cabrera is unsettling.
If the A's can build around Holiday, Furcal, Cust, and maybe call up 2nd baseman Wes Childs at some point in the year, they have a shot to take a weak AL West. -- jameersju post on ESPN.com
by youdownwithOBP on Jan 8, 2009 7:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And that's an upgrade!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Petit did alot better than that when he was up this year. And he is doing great this Winter.
Why not give the kid a chance.
I really don’t want to see an aging SS who can’t hit that much better than average and the A’s will lose a pick for him.
I agree that maybe go for Sheets and see who that works. Also remember that last year was the first year of Crosby playing healthy… I bet he would play closer to his potential in 2009 than 2008. I could be wrong but of course, we could pay alot for Cabrera and he could suck..for a couple years.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Jan 8, 2009 10:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I would definitely rather have Sheets and Petit
than have Cabrera.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 10:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How about we throw in Kotsay's wife as a cheerleader?
That’s what the A’s need. Cheerleaders… Green and Gold skimpies all looking like Kotsay’s wife.. that would fill the stands.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
by Eastbayjim on Jan 8, 2009 10:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I find that suggestion utterly sexist and insulting
Please keep them coming.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 10:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, so what? What's wrong with bein' sexy?
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on Jan 9, 2009 6:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure...
Sheets is a win or more better than Cabrera. He’s also going to be paid for a win or more greater than Cabrera will be.
He’s looking at $12-15M annually; Cabrera more like half that. In wins-per-dollar terms, they aren’t much different; the question is simply how much cash the team has to spend. I suppose they could sign both if they’re feeling particularly frisky.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 1:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree about allowing Petit the opportunity to start at SS
But the organization’s decision to bypass him during last season’s September callups allows us to speculate that the A’s don’t think highly of Petit.
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on Jan 9, 2009 6:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ZiPS/categories
I use average from -5 to +5 runs, very good from 6-12 better than average, fair from 6-12 below average, excellent above 12 and poor below -12.
Why do I report defense in this manner? Simply because, despite all the new tools in measuring defense since the mid-80s, we’re still talking about fairly low granularity. I’m fairly certain that someone that hit 20 home runs hit more home runs than someone that hit 15 home runs, but I’m less certain that someone that saved 20 runs on defense by systems saved more runs than someone that saved 15 runs.
In the case of offensive statistics, we can adjust for context. But regarding defense, while we can adjust for context, we can’t adjust for imprecision other than including a mechanism in the reporting. And that’s just for major leaguers – the state of minor league defensive data is even worse. So, I report defensive ability (range, I project errors separately) by putting players into tiers.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Jan 9, 2009 7:57 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Wow! It's Dan Szymborski!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 9, 2009 9:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
See what happens?
I start posting again and celebrities follow.
by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I should add
that I wasn’t criticizing how ZIPS does defense. It’s an exceedingly inexact portion of what’s already an inexact science, and as I’d noted, even the vagueness is more than most projection systems even attempt.
by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn’t think you were criticizing! I just felt that I could elaborate a little.
--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com
by D.Szymborski on Jan 9, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
OT
Nationals are not going to persue any big FA this offseason. What team is not the front runner for Dunn?
I still think it would be reasonable, although it would make me sick, if Dunn was signed on the cheap and Holliday was made available for a young stud short stop. It just does not seem likely that any team with young talent at the SS position would be willing to deal for 1 year of Holliday.
Eveland rocks! Eveland rocks! Somewhere Drew Carey just smiled.
by miggyk2 on Jan 8, 2009 7:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't Barton qualify as a big FA?!
That make Staplehead sad.
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on Jan 8, 2009 7:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He will be acquired via trade not free agency.
How about Buck, Barton, Bobby
For Dukes/Lastings, Guzman
Eveland rocks! Eveland rocks! Somewhere Drew Carey just smiled.
by miggyk2 on Jan 8, 2009 7:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Dukes is a good guy to stay away from, literally and figuratively,
whereas Milledge is merely “Tools Gonzalez” without the CF-acumen, and Guzman just…sucks.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Dukes is a scary man.
Fangraphs projects Guzman to OPS .785. Is O-Cab an upgrade over Guzman? I don’t really know about Guzman’s glove. Is he a butcher?
Eveland rocks! Eveland rocks! Somewhere Drew Carey just smiled.
by miggyk2 on Jan 8, 2009 7:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, he's ok with the glove
I’ve just never been terribly impressed with any aspect of his game other than speed. He kind of reminds of a poor man’s Luis Castillo.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know anything about projecting wins, could someone look at C. Guzman v. O-Cab
Eveland rocks! Eveland rocks! Somewhere Drew Carey just smiled.
by miggyk2 on Jan 8, 2009 7:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bite your tongue!
Cabrera is a little better than his stats…
Stats are the be-all and end-all of everything baseball and God-like knowledge. Shoot, with stats you don’t even need to watch the game.
(Ok, monkeyball kinda beat me to it. LOL!)
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on Jan 8, 2009 7:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
They play games?
How cool.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
they still have to play actual games in order to generate fantasy baseball stats
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Jan 8, 2009 11:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
something to consider
7 of last 8 yrs he’s played 150 games or more
by Asfan4ever723 on Jan 8, 2009 7:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Oh that Nico
the ever level-headed “I like stats but I like other things as well”. I think what you are referring to in Pro#1 is the win curve. Basically, that the closer you get to contention, the more valuable each win is. Thus, losing the draft pick to get to a theoretical win #90 (an arbitrary example) may be tolerable while losing that pick for win #60 is probably not.
I’m not saying Cabrera is going to be the team savior or be a world of value, but he will help, and will be worth a lot to the A’s if we really are believing that we’re on the cusp of contention.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 8, 2009 7:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Now that's a statistic I actually like
AND can understand. Win curve, huh? I like it.
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on Jan 8, 2009 7:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
BREAKING NEWS:
Crosby just swung at the win curve.
He missed.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It would be nice if BC
could embody both Emil Brown’s suckitude and Barton’s pool dive. Heck, let’s throw Jeremy not sliding and Miggy’s base running in there too. Effing Crosby. He’s the proverbial albacore around our collective necks (thank you, Johnny Boy!).
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on Jan 8, 2009 7:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ya it woudl be nice is crosby hit the (pool) deck, or bottom, as it were
since that would give us an excuse to NOT play him. Plus, if all else fails, maybe it’d have the effect of freaky friday, or something, and he’d switch with JJ Hardy.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 8, 2009 7:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How ironic we used to bemoan that Crosby was never healthy
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
now now, lets be fair to Crotchby
he closed his eyes, you see.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 8, 2009 7:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You have Crosby backwards
He opens his eyes, he doesn’t see.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I see what you mean
that crosby can’t hit what his eyes can’t see. But if you’re saying Crosby is batting backwards, then I’m pretty sure that either a) Bobby is incorrigible or b) we need to be firing our hitting coach
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 8, 2009 8:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure Crosby is left-handed
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 8:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We should tell HIM that.
Imagine how much better he’d get if he hit from his natural side!
by mikev on Jan 8, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
imagine how much more he'd get hit too
he’d be all confused about what side of the plate to be on, and end up just standing in the middle. I guess the theory goes, if you can’t beat ‘em, join ’em, and if you can’t do that, then take one (or more) for the team.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 8, 2009 8:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's a great summary, DLJ, thanks
I am definitely going on the “win curve” theory here. To me, the A’s look like an 85-87 win team right now IF the starting pitching comes along reasonably well. If so, adding Cabrera puts the team, as is, at more like 86-89 and the addition of a solid pitcher would project the A’s to hit 90+ wins.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 7:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wish I could see PT's Projecting The Enemy series with updates at the end of the offseason.
I’d like to know how much closer/better we are than the Angels, Rangers, AND Mariners after all this dust has settled. Plus, I’d like to know how much O Cab helps us on the win curve in our division. Oh ya, and believe it or not, the Mariners are actually closer to a .500 team than we all realize, I fear.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 8, 2009 8:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Who else needs a shortstop?
Because if the A’s sign OC then they’ll have to trade Crosby (and probably pay half his salary) to somebody for a low-A prospect or Hannahanish-AAAA never-was.
Who’s our taker?
by EddieVegas_NRAF on Jan 8, 2009 8:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Padres?
Blue Jays? Giants?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 8:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No one?
no one wanted him on waivers, why are they going to actually give anything up for him? maybe if the A’s trade 5 million dollars as well, but thats the only scenario we are getting rid of booby…i mean bobby
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 8, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree, DLJ
So we are going to carry two shortstops on the 25-man roster?
by EddieVegas_NRAF on Jan 9, 2009 8:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They can just cut Crosby.
In fact, that may be the most likely scenario.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 9, 2009 9:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i thought of that
but what if we kept him on as a backup? he’d be disgruntled, sure, but he’d only be playing 100 AB’s this season. He’d be a decent fill-in, just not a good regular.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 9, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If we're going to use numbers to support arguments
Fangraphs Value Wins for O Cab the past few years:
4.7
1.4
3.8
2.9
3.6
3.5
A Cab’s ’07+’08 (500+ ABs)
1.9
I certainly won’t argue that O Cab is better than A Cab right now, but I would argue they are equal. And any value win is basically a win above Crosby, so therefore I’d seriously believe that O Cab will be 2 wins over Crosby. To me and seeing how close the A’s are contending, it would be worth it to forego the pick (which we may get back later) for a better SS.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 8, 2009 9:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
So it's come to this...
Wishing for Cabrera. What a drag.
by IM4Oakgal on Jan 8, 2009 9:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Or, think of it this way ... wishing for "Not Crosby" ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Jan 8, 2009 10:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's actually the perfect description...
for this thread.
by IM4Oakgal on Jan 8, 2009 11:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Though I may be the sole holder of this opinion here on AN...
I believe that Crosby still has some upside and that after a full year in 2008 we might see some growth in 2009. Granted, the chances of this happening are approximately equal to me waking up between Kate Beckinsale and Heidi Klum. Oh god.
by mr. pickles on Jan 8, 2009 9:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I've never been a big fan of Crosby
But I do feel like the pendulum of Crosby-hate has swung way beyond me. He’s not that horrible.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Jan 8, 2009 11:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes he is. No matter how horrible you think he is, he's actually worse.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 9, 2009 9:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He's not that bad...
…as a fielder. He has decent range, he had very few throwing errors in the second half of last season and can turn double plays in his sleep (or at least as good as any other starting shortstop in the A.L.). I’m hoping he has a much improved season at the plate in this his last season under contract. He has a huge incentive to play well or he may not playing anywhere next season at all. I’m hoping that clearing waivers will light a fire under his ass. That being said I wouldn’t be disappointed in getting Cabrera (he’s a gamer). I would just prefer to get a starting pitcher or two over the shortstop position.
by jdub69 on Jan 9, 2009 9:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Beane wants more offense according to this (And pitching)
Sorry if this posted elsewhere here. Too many posts to read
by Trainman on Jan 9, 2009 12:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
so the a's want to improve their offense and pitching
this is an interesting and bold strategy. im curious to see if improving these areas will help the team win more games. i hope this isnt a trend that catches on with other teams.
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
by travdog6 on Jan 9, 2009 12:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Beane is on the cutting edge of the game...
so, you shouldn’t be surprised. I think it’ll work. I hope other teams don’t catch on too quickly.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Jan 9, 2009 12:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is the type of unique philosophy...
that the A’s will impart to the Rakuten Eagles of Japan’s Pacific League
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on Jan 9, 2009 6:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Next up: out score the opponent
I read somewhere that scoring more runs than the opposing team was positively correlated with winning. Beane should look into this theory as well.
by el generico on Jan 9, 2009 3:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hit 'em where they ain't.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on Jan 9, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
somebody probably already said this before me...
(I didn’t read all the comments)… but, it is pretty clear that Beane intends to rid the team of Bobby Crosby, at whatever cost. If he’s seriously looking at OCab as an upgrade, then he’s probably lost his mind. But, BoCro has driven all of AN insane, so I wouldn’t discount that as a possibliity.
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Jan 9, 2009 12:23 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
oh, look at that...
mr. pickles and iglew agree with me. All I had to do was scroll down to the very bottom before I posted. ;-)
Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...
by FoolshGame22 on Jan 9, 2009 12:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
When you say it like that
It sounds like Mr Pickles is my sock puppet.
“What do you think, Mr Pickles?”
<squeaky voice>
“I totally agree with you, Iglew”
<\squeaky voice>
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Jan 9, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"However, he bunts, hits behind the runner, and puts the ball in play especially well..."
That sentence evoked some memories of another Oakland (sometimes) number 9 hitter of recent times. Not meant as a comparison of their hitting abilities, but below listed (cherry-picked) stats are eerily similar [last 5 years]
Player A
Age: 34
Balls-in-Play: 80.93%
SH: 16
GIDP: 66
Avg: .278
Player B
Age: 34
Balls-in-Play: 80.99%
SH: 16
GIDP: 70
Avg: .276
One is, obviously, Orlando Cabrera. The other one will not be hard to guess…
by elcroata on Jan 9, 2009 4:02 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
heh heh heh ...
PAPBOTM
a man has to have something to help the petite vanilla bean scones go down @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jan 9, 2009 9:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This probably will make me sound like I am sniffing glue but…
I have come to the point where Crosby being the starting SS for the 2009 season does not bother me. I mean why, at this point, should the A’s try to do any thing about him. They are on the hook for 5+ million or so or at least part of it no matter what (hurt, trade, benching, etc.). Crosby is in the final year of his contract and after 2009 he could/should be some other team’s problem. Plus with the fact that Crosby is in his contract year, he may be inclined to you know, really try to be a better hitter/player.
What I would like to see is when pitchers and catchers report, make Crosby come along as well and have Jim Skaalen there to work with him and see if ANy improvement can be made. And if not then at worst he is the A’s 9 th hitter and object of AN distain for another year then he is gone.
It’s just that the signing of Orlando Cabrera does not make me stand up and say with him the A’s are a lock for the playoffs. At this point SP is more of a concern for me than SS for the 2009 season.
by A'sfaninNC on Jan 9, 2009 6:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
A few points
A 2nd round pick can’t possibly be worth very much. The value of draft picks falls precipitously after the first 15 or so picks. If we lose a 2nd round pick to sign Cabrera, I’d be okay with it.
The other point is that an overpay for Orlando Cabrera might make sense at the moment. For one thing, if the money would otherwise line Lew’s pocket, I’d rather the overpay. But, on a more baseball-oriented note, the A’s are very even in talent with the Angels at the moment. Every win counts, and when a team stands at the border between playoffs/no-playoffs, an extra investment makes some sense. I’d argue that we’re at the point in the curve where the marginal utility of an extra win is quite high.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
by salb918 on Jan 9, 2009 7:17 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I think you're too quick to wave good-bye to the draft pick
Since Beane became the GM he has used his 2nd round pick on:
98 Gerald Laird – Borderline starting C
99 Ryan Ludwick – I have no idea how we should grade him
00 Freddie Bynum – Fringe major leaguer
01 Neal Cotts – Major League RP
02 Steve Stanley – Bust
03 Andre Ethier – Starting OF
04 Michael Rogers – Bust
04 Kurt Suzuki – Starting C
05 Craig Italiano – Prospect SP (High-A)
05 Jared Lansford – Prospect RP (AA)
06 Trevor Cahill – Top Prospect SP (AA)
07 Grant Desme – Looking like a bust
07 Josh Norton – Looking like a bust
08 Tyson Ross – Boom or Bust?
So with 14 2nd round picks Beane has found 2 outright starters, a major league bullpen arm, a platoon catcher (at the least) a AAAA infielder and his top homegrown prospect who probably ranks in the Top 20 of all the minors. Add in the guys its too early to make a call on and Beane has been fairly productive in the 2nd round.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jan 9, 2009 8:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the nice summary!
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on Jan 9, 2009 8:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
I’m not saying that losing the pick should be the deciding factor all the time, but when it’s for a marginal upgrade like Cabrera over Crosby it should certainly be a factor.
by mikev on Jan 9, 2009 8:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the thing
I’m more willing to accept losing the 2nd round pick if Cabrera signs for 1 year guaranteed vs. multiyear deal. That’s how much I don’t like the idea of Cabrera in 2010.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jan 9, 2009 9:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
I’d only want Cabrera on a 2 year max deal, with a 1 year plus a team option being preferable. Of course, I’m not sure Cabrera would go for that, but that’s what I’d want.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 9, 2009 1:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I haven’t followed his career, but Ludwick went nuts last year.
by Lovejoy on Jan 9, 2009 6:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera haters
The fact is Cabrera only comes to the a’s if he can be signed at around 5 million with a team option on second. If he doesn’t work out he is easy tradeable. A few teams are in need of a SS/2b during playoff race so the cost in nothing compared to dollars. The biggest cost in a 2nd round pick.
by Arcman on Jan 9, 2009 9:00 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
How is he easily tradeable?
Nobody wants him right now for just money and a draft pick. Why would any team give up actual talent for him later in the season?
by mikev on Jan 9, 2009 9:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
someone will want him
SS is a injury prone position and that Cabrera can play 2b makes him a utility player for the playoffs with a little speed and defense. He is not going to get you a top prospect. I could care either way if they sign him but I am glad they didn’t sign Furcal.
by Arcman on Jan 9, 2009 10:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera, O.
Is it really reasonable to expect O-Cab to be two full wins over Crosby, when Giambi was under two full wins better than barton? This seems like overestimation….I definitely count the cash to pay crosby to leave, and I suspect Billy does also. The pay to leave stragedy worked with Kotsay because we had an in-house option at CF and we got a brilliant player in Devine
by greenpaddedgloves on Jan 9, 2009 9:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Why is paying Crosby to leave worse than paying him to stay?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 9, 2009 9:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because in addition to paying Crosby
We’d be paying Cabrera. Paying $5M for one crappy shortstop is better than paying $14M for two crappy shortstops.
by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 2:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
SS
Because we have to pay someone to play SS in addition to paying Crosby’s 5.25M. Let’s say our entioe payroll is 60M. 5.25M(crosby’s guaranteed $) is freakin 9% of our payroll! Therefore we are paying a non-superstar 10+ million for ’09. Not impossible, just not advised…
by greenpaddedgloves on Jan 9, 2009 9:18 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Eternal doghouse inhabitant crosby
We should hold until teams are out of contention, and get a player we can agree is a good defensive SS with a keen eye and a little pop.
by greenpaddedgloves on Jan 9, 2009 9:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I love it when people argue the team should acquire a player who doesn't exist
and even if he does exist, isn’t available.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 12:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's referring to Edward Gaedel's child
because then he would have a ‘little pop’. Of course, there’s that slight little problem that said player is probably past his prime, but hey, it’s the A’s we’re talking about here.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 9, 2009 2:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Orlando Cabrera is an icky poopy-head.
Therefore I don’t want him on the team. I don’t care about win shares or UZR or VORP.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Jan 9, 2009 12:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
his icky poopy-headness above replacement (iphap) was actually -2
so get your stats right buddy!
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
by travdog6 on Jan 9, 2009 12:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
VORRRRRRRRRRP!!!!!!
Sorry, it’s just after lunch.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 9, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
the way i see it
is that o-cab is gonna be no worse than that “baseball player” we run out to shortstop now. so if we are really going for it this year and since we have sacrificed parts of our future to contend, we need to sacrifice the draft pick to improve this team as well.
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
by travdog6 on Jan 9, 2009 12:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Have we, though?
Much as I liked “Hate Me Now”, I think we can agree that Huston Street wasn’t a part of our future. Greg Smith was and is a borderline back-of-the-rotation starter that was never going to have more trade value than he had right now. The only player we’ve given up this year to contend is CarGo, and you could cover half the infield with the number of ANers who had their doubts about him.
by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
to some extent we have
we signed giambi too (not a huge deal, but still). street was a very good relief pitcher, and while his value might have been limited in our bullpen, he is very valuabe. smith ill agree with you on. but we had 6 years left of cargo. even if hes not that good or if you have your doubts, hes still has value. and while i like the holliday deal to some extent, we gave up a fair share in return.
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
by travdog6 on Jan 10, 2009 3:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Orlando Cabrera
Obviously Bobby Crosby has overstayed his welcome in Oakland and while signing Cabrera would obviously be an upgrade for a year or two, the A’s do not have a legitimate shortstop in the waiting. Cliff Pennington is a utility player at best and while it is thought one of the recently aquired second basemen like Jemile Weeks of Adrian Cardenas could slide over to shortstop, neither can be truely projected to have a solid big league career at that position. Instead of signing Cabrera to a short term deal and losing a 1st round draft pick to the White Sox, it would be wise to use the first round pick on a college shortstop that will be big league ready in a year or two. Billy Beane put Crosby on outright waivers this past month which means any team could have picked him up and the A’s get no compensation so Billy must have an idea of who he could slide in at SS. Could it be signing Cabrera or a lesser free agent such as David Eckstein? Or will Billy make one of his patented under the radar trades? Only time will tell.
by Oakland is part of the A's on Jan 9, 2009 12:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
What you say about the use of the first round draft pick is true,
and was true last year and the year before. If only… ;-(
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 9, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Polished college shortstop, eh?
You mean like Cliff Pennington? Or Josh Horton?
Weeks was thought of as something of an overdraft. But the other middle infielders available would REALLY have been overdrafts. “Drafting for need” is generally a bad strategy, and it’s really a bad strategy when you can “sign a free agent for need” instead.
BTW, can we get a note in a front page post, or something, to point out that signing a Type A free agent will NOT cost the A’s a first round pick? I’m wondering if there’s some misinformation out there (some hack columnist in one of the local papers, perhaps?) that is causing people to mistakenly believe that the A’s first rounder is vulnerable.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The consensus seems to be that O-Cab represents and upgrade,
but only a small one. I say that anything other than a significant upgrade is not worth a draft pick in the first 10 rounds. For someone of Furcal’s caliber, forfeiture of a draft pick would be ok. Not for Orlando Cabrera.
by mr. pickles on Jan 9, 2009 1:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Paul Thomas
YOU are the one who is wrong about the A’s draft pick. A Type A free agent DOES cost a team their first round draft pick, hence that is why Billy Beane has let so many players leave at the end of the season: to rack up first round draft picks i.e. Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi,Jermaine Dye. Potentially that is what he is planning on doing with Matt Holliday at the end of this season. How else did the A’s draft Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton in the first round of the 2002 draft as well as two other players? ALL IN THE 1ST ROUND! You cannot trade draft picks. The only way it is possible for a team to get that many picks in the first round is for Type A free agents to leave. At the end of the 2001 season the A’s had three Type A free agents leave for other teams: Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, and Jason Isringhausen. Because of this the A’s got the Yankees, Redsox, and Cardinals first round picks as well as their own: 4 total
by Oakland is part of the A's on Jan 9, 2009 2:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The A's first round pick is protected, dude.
They’ll lose their 2nd round pick if they sign a Type A.
by mikev on Jan 9, 2009 3:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To clarify mikev's comment
The first 15 are protected by the CBA, which basically states that the teams with the 15 worst records the previous year cannot lose their 1st round pick as part of the FA process. All other picks after the first 15 are fair game as part of the compensation teams receive for losing a Type A FA.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Jan 9, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait, are you saying the A's were one of the 15 worst last year?
<checks final standings>
Well, I’ll be darned, so they were. That would explain the confusion.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Jan 9, 2009 7:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To Clarify my Post
The example I used for the free agents the A’s lost after the 2001 season, Giambi, Damon, and Izzy fit exactly what you said. Because the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cardinals were not in the bottom 15, the A’s recieved their first round picks, hence four 1st rounders for the A’s
by Oakland is part of the A's on Jan 9, 2009 5:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Reply button is part of the web page
a man has to have something to help the petite vanilla bean scones go down @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jan 9, 2009 5:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This does not clarify your post at all
The first thing your “reply” to Paul said was “Paul Thomas: YOU are the one who is wrong about the A’s draft pick” That was a 100% false statement. No clarification needed, all you needed to do was say, oops I made a mistake on that one. Why is that so hard?
by AsFanInLA on Jan 10, 2009 10:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Mission accomplished!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Jan 10, 2009 10:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
"The Wrong Cabrera"
Sounds like a Raul Ruiz film.
a man has to have something to help the petite vanilla bean scones go down @('.')@
by monkeyball on Jan 9, 2009 6:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
MY DEFINITION OF....
“the wrong Cabrera” would be one that is not a starting pitcher. As much as everyone is disappointed and frustrated with the production of our SS, it would seem that money and time should go to getting an anchor for the starting rotation.
Our most/only proven starter in coming off a shortened season due to a recurring hip injury and has not proven he can start 30+ games a season. There are many with talent and promise and these things are great for rebuilding and developing but not so much for “contention.” With the acquisition of Holiday and Giambi the focus seems to be contention.
Contention cannot occur if we look to the mound 4 out of 5 games and see a guy who appears to be doing this all for the first time. To even toy with the idea of contention we need one more proven starter.
by WhiteElephant on Jan 16, 2009 3:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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