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Can someone explain the appeal of Orlando Cabrera to me?

No, I get that Crosby's bad, I do, I certainly understood (and supported) the desire to replace him with Furcal. For the price the Dodgers got him for, I can also certainly see why we passed, assuming we were ever a serious consideration for Furcal in the first place. But once Furcal was taken off the board, it seems like a large segment of the population of AN decided that Cabrera was the next choice, and the reasoning for that eludes me.

Crosby doesn't hit well, that's established, but Cabrera's BEST season with the bat was 2003 in Montreal, when he hit .297/.347/.460, and that was pretty clearly a career year. His second best year was 2001, with a line of .276/.324/.428. Does the phrase "his best days are behind him" seem appropriate? Since 2003, the highest single-season OPS he's had was .742. Last year he had a .705 OPS in one of the better hitter's parks in the American League.

What about his defense, you say? Well true, UZR had Cabrera as 14.2 runs above average at shortstop last year, which combined with the marginal improvement over Crosby in hitting would account for 2-2.5 wins of improvement, but IF and only IF his defense stayed at exactly that level. Is that a guarantee? Not remotely. Here Cabrera's UZR ratings over the past 7 years:

  • 2002: 1.4
  • 2003: 6.4
  • 2004: -1.5
  • 2005: 24.6
  • 2006: -1.6
  • 2007: 9.7
  • 2008: 14.2

In every one of those seasons, Cabrera played at least 141 games at short. Over this span he's averaged 7.6 runs above average, and the plain fact is that at age 34, he's going to be older and probably slower than he was in all of those seasons. Even if there's no drop-off due to age (not at all a guarantee), it's more likely to expect 1 win of improvement out of Cabrera's defense than 2, and it still leaves us with a hole in the batting order. Explain to me why that's worth paying millions and giving up a draft pick?

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This is obviously

a topic that is going to be argued back and forth until, and probably after Cabrera signs. I’ll throw in a few reasons why Cabrera appeals to me, and i’m sure there will be plenty of input both ways after mine.
1) He’s not Bobby Crosby
2) He’s a better hitter
3) He’s a better defender (argueable, but I think it’s pretty clear)
4) Nobody expects him to come in and set the world on fire, people merely expect him to hit about 40 points higher then Crosby, OPS about 45 points higher then Crosby, have more speed then Crosby, play better defense then Crosby and last, but not least, NOT BE BOBBY CROSBY.

I like him at a discout, not if he’ll cost more then $8mil a season. If he’s up over the $8mil mark then i’ll pass. However, with the limited market for him I think he’ll be signing for around $6-7mil annually. For that price i’ll take him and lose the pick.

by JPShark on Jan 8, 2009 2:01 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

but it isn’t your money…so, if they want to spend it, it’s fine by me! We’ve saved enough over the years to splurge once or twice to get a better player in an area where we don’t have any good answers within the organization or on the trade winds.

The opinions expressed in a FanPost are not necessarily those of the California Golden Blogs or any of its authors. However, they are just as important as the opinions of any of the authors. And doubly so as compared to TwistNHook!

by carp on Jan 8, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

See below

Worrying about 2nd round picks is penny wise, pound foolish.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 10:02 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I will meet you half way on that.

But if, and yes that and a dollar will get you a dollars worth of gas, the pick that is lost turns into a player that the A’s could need then lossing the pick for a slight upgrade is crazy. But that is just me. I would rather hang one to each and every pick and see what can be got with it in the future and use what is in place rather than gamble on something that is only a small upgrade. Then use the $$$ on some SP for 2009 and resigning certain players (if possible).

Again though that is just me.

by A'sfaninNC on Jan 9, 2009 10:43 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

WHAT SP?

Sheets? Whoops, costs a draft pick.

Lowe? Whoops, same thing.

Wolf? Whoops, he’s not very good.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 12:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I would...

allow Petit/Pennington to share time at short. Without any preceivable SS alternative on the minor league horizon, it seems best to allow both players an opportunity to stick in the majors.

There just isn’t much of an alternative here, especially with the lack of quality free agent SS for next offseason. And then there’s always trades (DeJesus, Hu, etc.)…

I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.

by franks a lot on Jan 8, 2009 2:02 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I hope they don't

It’ll tie up too much money for a marginal short term improvement. I think Beane will get into spring training and give the prospects a good look then decide whether to stay with what he’s got or trade for a SS sometime next season. We need a long term middle infielder.

by T-Money on Jan 8, 2009 2:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Agreed on the need for a long term solution

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 8, 2009 5:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The focus must be on starting pitching right now.

I don’t think O-Cab is a terrible idea, so long as he comes real cheap…like for Giambi money. But at anymore than that, he’ll likely be chewing up resources that are much better used going after veteran starting pitching, which should be the team’s focus right now. I will not be happy if Billy signs O-Cab and then calls it an off-season.

I think this team can live with Bobby Crosby at short for next season provided they shore up the starting pitching and Chavez comes back to contribute on a semi-regular basis.

I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!

by Taj Adib on Jan 8, 2009 2:29 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Does Beane have plans to add a new starting pitcher? I thought he was focused mainly on offense.

"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"

by Eastbayjim on Jan 8, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

that boat has sailed by which was Randy Johnson

who do you want?

lowe seems intent on 12-16mill
sheets is a more expensive harden wants 10mill+
innings eater garland?
wolff/petitte?

guys coming off injury…colon, jennings, mulder, garcia?

by Asfan4ever723 on Jan 8, 2009 3:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be happy with

Garland or Wolff… someone who ain’t too expensive, won’t require a long term deal and can eat enough innings to make up for the inevitable burn out starts young guys have from time to time. As long as he isn’t a jerk like Mark Redman was :)

by jeffro on Jan 8, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Sheets is worth the risk and the money...

especially on a short-team deal (1-2 years). This team has the payroll room and the need for an experienced and accomplished arm to team with Duchscherer at the top of the rotation to take even more pressure off of guys like Gallagher and Gio. No matter how good the offense is, this team will not compete if Sean Gallagher is the number 2 starter in the rotation. If Sheets can only give the team a half-season worth of starts (15-20) it’s not the end of the world…by mid-season Brett Anderson and/or Trevor Cahill should be ready for primetime.

I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!

by Taj Adib on Jan 8, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I would hope that we are not using Anderson/Cahill this season besides for some coffee in September

Every day is just a little worse than the previous, that means every day is the worst day of my life.

by shooting4life on Jan 8, 2009 5:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Cabrera's UZR shows a lot about UZR

I think any stat that volatile tells you little in a sport where more established stats are remarkably steady and predictable.

Cabrera also has some baggage; his year with the Red Sox was pretty productive, but they couldn’t wait to get rid of him. Rumor was that he was a big problem in the clubhouse, for what that’s worth.

He’d be an upgrade over Crosby, but is probably only worth it if he comes at a very low cost.

it is not possible to strategize while the ball is coming towards you

by eastcoasta'sfan on Jan 8, 2009 2:34 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

UZR

Even if the variations are entirely due to the vagaries of the fielding metric used, my basic point is still valid. The reasons that a stat will be volatile from year to year tend to be A) the stat uses too small a sample size, (RISP, close&late and other attempts to define clutch hitting are examples of this) or B) there’s a significant element of chance present, (BABIP is a good example of this). In both cases, the answer is to take a larger sample. It’s definitively the solution to A, and it tends to minimize the random elements over a longer period.

It’s why I put seven years up there. Over a seven year period, Cabrera has averaged about a win above average with his defense. When the numbers say he’s a 3-win player one year, slightly below average the next year, and a one-win player the following year and so on, it’s a reasonable assumption that his defense is about the same, he’s just getting luckier one year than the next.

With a bat only marginally better than Crosby’s (most projections I’ve seen have Cabrera at a shade over .700 OPS, Crosby has a bit more variance, ranging from .650 to .700), I think even Giambi money for Cabrera would be too much when you factor in that we’d also be coughing up a draft pick.

by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

But...

By increasing the sample size by extending the time period being measured doesn’t ti also kind of diminish the effectiveness of the stat? 23 to 30 is a big difference in things like lateral movement, quickness, etc.

In effect aren’t you measuring a different player with the same name? You know who i was and who I am changes a great deal over 7 years.

Defensive metrics are hard.

by jeffro on Jan 8, 2009 4:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe

though I’d note that we’re looking at 27-33 for Cabrera, not 23 to 30. And if we’re going to consider the possibility of a change in lateral movement and quickness on Cabrera’s part at age 34, I think we have to assume a general downward trend.

It’s why the general assumption that Cabrera projects to a two-win improvement over Crosby (which was just repeated in Nico’s FP post) is unwarranted.

by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh?

Established stats are remarkably steady?

Let’s take a look at the OC’s batting average. No more established stat than BA.

2002: 263
2003: 297
2004: 264
2005: 257
2006: 282
2007: 301
2008: 281

Between his best season 2007, and his worst, 2005, a difference of 44 points of BA. 44 points of BA is HUGE.

Or take a look at OPS; from 2002-2008, the difference between the OC at his best, in 2003, and at his worst, in 2004, comes up to about 25-30 runs. That’s similar to the gap between how UZR has him at his best and worst defensively.

Regarding the baggage, he had issues with Ozzie Guillen with the WS too.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jan 8, 2009 7:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Defensive Stats

Why don’t stats people get that Defensive Stats aren’t reliable? It’s the epitome of SSS. Every ball off the bat is different.

by Colorado Fan on Jan 9, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well they obviously aren't as reliable as offensive stats

Doesn’t mean that they aren’t useful.

Sure, every ball of the bat is different. This applies to offensive stats too.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jan 10, 2009 5:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sure that Cabrera would have gotten the bunt down, so A's fans should be happy if you sign OC.

   He is a gold glover, and fine bat, a above average clutch performer. He was great with he Angel’s, though last year he didn’t fare so well.

by Big Bad , "VLAD"! on Jan 9, 2009 12:48 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So, in order
He is a gold glover

He’s won an award that’s an annual joke.

and fine bat

If only he could hit with it.

a above average clutch performer.

Two things that don’t exist. The other is the phrase “a above” in the English language.

He was great with he Angel’s, though last year he didn’t fare so well.

And his performance is declining.

Well, I’m sold.

by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 1:54 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

and im sold on the fact that youre a jackass

Gold Gloves, while they are a joke, at least say that the player was a decent fielder at worst. And the phrase gold glover now is more of synonymous with great fielder than winner of an award voted on by retards. And clutch does exist, and it is possible to be above average in clutch situations.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=766&position=SS#winprobability
There are intangibles and makeup that let players be ‘clutch’. While way too much value has been put in without analysis, it diminishes its value, but a player can be clutch nonetheless. Notice how John Lackey has owned the As over his career as an example. Some people like the added pressure and it elevates their game, wheras some dont deal with it as well

Lets go angels

by anaheim angels on Jan 11, 2009 8:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

or it could be random

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 11, 2009 9:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think it's random or intangible

I think Lackey throws a lot of quality strikes, an approach that works very well against any team and works especially well against Oakland.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 11, 2009 9:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i was talking about clutch in general being somewhar random

but i agree with you on lackey.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 11, 2009 9:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I just can't

see us giving up a first round draft pick for him. I don’t mind signing him for a year or two but to give up a first rounder for him seems crazy…

by slash03434 on Jan 8, 2009 2:52 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

A's first round pick is protected.

Eveland rocks! Eveland rocks! Somewhere Drew Carey just smiled.

by miggyk2 on Jan 8, 2009 3:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Is our first pick protected because it's in the first 15 picks of the draft?

Would we then have to give up a 2nd-round pick if we signed Cabrera? That certainly changes things… especially since the second round comes after the supplemental round…

I’ve been anti-signing-Cabrera, but part of that was based on the idea that we’d have to give up a first-round pick. If we’re giving up pick #75 (I’m pulling that number out of thin air) instead of pick #15 (that one too), I could see a two-year, $18M deal for Cabrera being worth it…

According to Dave Cameron (over on www.fangraphs.com), Cabrera’s “worth” a three-year, $41M deal (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/type-a-orlandos), so getting him for $9M per year seemingly would be a decent deal, even in this depressed market.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 8, 2009 4:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, and yes.

It’s protected because it’s in the top 15, and Cabrera would cost the 2nd round pick.

by Svidrigailov on Jan 8, 2009 5:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

1-Year @ 8 Million...

And I’m in.

More than 1 guaranteed year means that Beane isn’t trying to acquire a stud SS this year or next.

by Colorado Fan on Jan 9, 2009 10:15 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i'm going to repost my SS solution that i posted in another thread that went into a tengent about the reply button

We have 3 shortstops, just don’t let them hit!

Just pretend you’re in the NL and Crosby is your pitcher. pinch hit for him when it’s his turn to bat. Whoever is squeezed out of the OF/1B/DH that particular day, or anyone who can hit better than crosby will pinch hit for him, then you put petit in for defense, when it’s petit’s turn, pinch hit again, put pennington on defense. You take away 2 of the SS at bats for OF at bats every game!

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 8, 2009 2:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

you can have that many backup IF

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 8, 2009 3:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We're talking three DIFFERENT pinch hitters

in one game. Who are they: the 1B/corner OF/DH taking the day off and who are the other two that must bat once the PH role is completed and the teams needs to install the defensive sub?

by LowcountryJoe on Jan 8, 2009 3:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

well, 2 pinch hitters

don’t really understand what you’re trying to say

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 8, 2009 3:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 8, 2009 3:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

that is a really imaginative, albeit unworkable, solution

This is hardball! This is where we overreact! @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 8, 2009 3:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

hey

it could happen!

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 8, 2009 3:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If Chavez was entirely healthy *and* Hannahan could play a passable SS

i.e., not forcing us to carry 3 SSs on the 25-man and not requiring a backup 3B every day

a man has to have something to help the petite vanilla bean scones go down @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 8, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i'm not exactly serious on the topic

just throwing stuff out there

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 8, 2009 3:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, I know

It’s a fun thought exercise.

a man has to have something to help the petite vanilla bean scones go down @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 8, 2009 4:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I like the idea. It's why the 11 man staff has appeal.

It could also work if Giambi is the backup 3B.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 8, 2009 6:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If we felt that the rotation was stable,

an 11 man staff would make sense. Heck, even if we just felt 4/5ths of the rotation were stable, it’d be okay, but we’ve got an injury-prone Duchscherer and 4 guys with about 3 years of ML service time between them.

by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 6:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice Idea

Good waste of roster space.

by HRH on Jan 8, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Dick Williams did that with A's 2Bs in September of '72

with Dal Maxvill, Dick Green, and Manny Trillo. Rob Neyer has the details.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Jan 8, 2009 5:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

if a draft pick wasn't involved

i’d be okay with them signing him. but since it’ll cost us (he’s a type A, right?), i want nothing to do with him. he’s better than crosby, but not by that much.

by guy incognito on Jan 8, 2009 2:57 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

+1

for the best Princess Bride ref. +1 for using my Holliday and Croz for Escobar idea for a punchline.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Jan 8, 2009 3:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

qotm

and rec

Save Rajai Davis

by oakinboston on Jan 8, 2009 3:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

so did beane kidnap geren?

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 8, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Why?!?!?....

…Is this not in the recommend column yet?

That was the single most brilliant Princess Bride tie-in to date! I mean it!

anybody want a peanut?

I dream of Fremont and rainbows

by OptimistPrime on Jan 8, 2009 5:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Holy mother of...

Best post I’ve seen in…ever. Wow.

by danmerqury on Jan 8, 2009 5:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The most famous classic blunder...

should have read, “never get involved with an over-hyped free agent from Asia”.

You know, no matter how many times you preview, something always slips through.

Thanks though, everyone, for the coveted Green Asterisk. A lurker’s dream-come-true.

"I'm going to take a camera crew and march into Billy Beane's office and demand to know why instituting his newfangled cost-saving measures means that the run manufacturing plant had to get shut down." FJM

by Elvez on Jan 8, 2009 6:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Fantastic!

Hilarious!

"That's not a Sherman tank, it's Frank Thomas!" - Monkeyball

by JLeverenz on Jan 8, 2009 9:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

So this.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jan 9, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

what's the record for most rec's on a single post?

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 9, 2009 12:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nate-

I share your confusion. that’s all i got.

Save Rajai Davis

by oakinboston on Jan 8, 2009 3:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

what confusion?

crosby sucks…he’s a sunk cost, they are ready to move on
no good fa’s till 2010
tejada would be a nice feel good story, but fbi investigtioin. maybe nonsense A’s would not rather deal with. plus houston may not be in give away mode after non tendering wiggington, letting go wolff.
A’s may view penny/petit as utility guys for now and not starting caliber.

by Asfan4ever723 on Jan 8, 2009 3:20 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

As much as I dislike Cabrera...

He can hit. His OPS is mediocre, but he did have 186 hits in 161 games last year. 192 hits the year before that. I know hits is not a popular stat around here, but putting up 180+ hits should get a little respect.

I’m not sure how much Cabrera would cost, but he would definitely be an upgrade over Crosby.

Losing a first round draft pick is unfortunate, but sometimes you gotta make sacrifices if you have a chance to win the division.

"Who's this Seagon guy? Is he in A-ball or something?" - Billy Beane

by pickinmachine on Jan 8, 2009 3:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

186 hits would get more respect

if more than 42 of them were for extra bases and they were accompanied by more than 56 walks.

He can hit. He cannot hit well.

by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Out of the SS position

i’m not really worried about how much power he hits for. SS is one the weakest offensive positions there is. 186 hits is nothing to frown on as long as he’s dumping in some XBH’s here and there, and he’s plenty capable of doing that. Now if we were talking about 1B/3B/DH or a corner OF position then ya, 186 with 42 XBH’s would be something that needs improvement. I know one thing, 186 hits with above average defense looks a helluva lot better then 132 hits with average defense.

by JPShark on Jan 8, 2009 6:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i’m not really worried about how much power he hits for. SS is one the weakest offensive positions there is.

And we already have a shortstop with terrible offense. Why do we need another one?

186 hits is nothing to frown on as long as he’s dumping in some XBH’s here and there, and he’s plenty capable of doing that.

In which lifetime? Crosby’s 35.6% XBH is nobody’s idea of a slugger, but Cabrera hasn’t matched that in his career.

I know one thing, 186 hits with above average defense looks a helluva lot better then 132 hits with average defense.

I suppose it helps if you ignore that he got those 186 hits in 100 more ABs. Or park effects. Or age. Or, y’know, anything but hit totals and defense. Meanwhile, a .705 OPS obtained in one of the league’s best hitting parks with somewhat above average defense looks only marginally better than a .645 OPS in a pitcher’s park with average defense when that first guy is into his mid-thirties and you have to PAY to get him whereas the other guy’s a sunk cost.

by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 6:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I would hardly call Cabrera's offense horrible.

He’s a league average SS and has outhit Crosby by a good margain every year for the past 3 seasons. Crosby’s OPS+ over the past 3 years were 67, 68 and 76 respectively. Cabrera’s were 91, 95 and 84. He’s one year removed from a .300 season and a gold glove. Yes he’s 34 but he can still play a good SS and I don’t think every guy in our lineup has to slug .420+ or walk 100+ times a season. I think its a good thing to mix in a guy who knows how to put the bat on the ball and rack up some hits. He’s hit .280 or better each of his last 3 seasons, a number I am willing to bet we never see Crosby approach.

Ok, so how many more hits would Crosby have accumulated in those 100 more AB’s?? 23, bringing him to a total of 155 and still 31 behind Cabrera?? Cabrera’s 186 hits were good for 2nd in the entire major leagues for shortstop’s. And the fact that he had 100 more AB’s and played in 16 more games is hardly a bad thing. The guy has consistently been able to stay on the field, something that can’t be measured by stat lines and yet another thing that Crosby doesn’t seem able to do.

Look, i’m hardly a big time OCab fan. But I think its pretty obvious that if his price falls into the $6-7mil range he would be a better option then running Crosby’s .235/.295/.345 ass out for another season. I see all of the metric/projeciton systems and while I think they are of some use, and they are obviously a nice tool to have, I think there is way too many variables involved to make them a very accurate way to analyze a players performance especially on the defensive side of things. There are a lot of things that don’t get taken into consideration because there is no way to put a number on them. I see a lot of inconsistency in most, if not all the systems out there.

by JPShark on Jan 8, 2009 6:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This pretty much sums it up for me

Im not a big Cabrera fan either, but if the option is a 6-7 million Cabrera and forfeiting a 2nd round draft pick…or playing Crosby everyday, I’ll take Cabrera any day of the week.

You can’t expect every player on your team to mash, having OPS being the be all end all statistic. Also if he is not a power hitter, do hitting/pitching parks really matter?

I would love for the A’s to magically trade for a long term SS instead, but if that’s not going to happen, I really don’t see how signing Cabrera is mortgaging the teams future. All it is doing is improving a team that is trying to win.

"Who's this Seagon guy? Is he in A-ball or something?" - Billy Beane

by pickinmachine on Jan 8, 2009 7:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

re paragraph two,

I think the foul territory could be a big factor for someone like Cabrera, same as it was for Damon and Kendall.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 8:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's true

but then does a hitter’s park really matter for a guy like Cabrera?

"Who's this Seagon guy? Is he in A-ball or something?" - Billy Beane

by pickinmachine on Jan 8, 2009 8:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You mean

someone who isn’t a good hitter?

by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 8:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

double-posting for a non-snarky answer

Yes actually, the foul territory can be a real problem for someone who relies on a lot of contact like Damon or Kendall. Cabrera is similar in that he doesn’t strike out a lot, but he’s going to foul more pitches off than a Cust or a Giambi will.

by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 8:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Also having less power,

I would think fewer of his foul pop-ups will drift into the seats. Just a pure strength thing.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 8:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

...

so you’re on my side now?

by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm always on the side of truth

And vodka.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 8:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Then it's settled.

Instead of wasting $9 million on Cabrera, the A’s should get us one million dollars worth of booze and save eight million bucks.

by Nate on Jan 8, 2009 9:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i don't think even that amount of booze would help me forget about crosby

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 8, 2009 9:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You can go further than that

By harmonizing baseball with sound investment and enviromental thinking:

If you had purchased $1,000 of Delta Air Lines stock one year ago, you would have $49 left.

With Fannie Mae, you would have $2.50 left of the original $1,000.

With AIG, you would have less than $15 left.

But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drunk all of the beer, then turned in the cans for the aluminum recycling REFUND, you would have $50 cash.

Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle.

If Beane spent all his $$ on beer for AN, we’d be happy no matter what the team did.

it is not possible to strategize while the ball is coming towards you

by eastcoasta'sfan on Jan 9, 2009 8:42 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I had a mechanic who told me to buy tequila and dynamite rather than spend the money to fix my car.

by Lovejoy on Jan 9, 2009 3:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see that as negative

The A’s could use a good leadoff hitter. Fouling pitches off? I’ll take that. Hits and runs? You bet.

Cabrera is a pest, in fact I nearly choked on my beer laughing when I read thiscomment from 2 years ago.

"Who's this Seagon guy? Is he in A-ball or something?" - Billy Beane

by pickinmachine on Jan 8, 2009 8:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know how to link to comments

“anyone else hate Orlando Cabrera’s bitch-ass
face?”

by LAXile on Aug 20, 2006 1:20 PM PDT 0 recs

"Who's this Seagon guy? Is he in A-ball or something?" - Billy Beane

by pickinmachine on Jan 8, 2009 8:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The way to link to comments, I believe,

is to hit reply to the comment and then use that URL in the link box.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 8:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The A's will pick in the top half of the first round next draft.

Picks in the top half of the first round are protected, meaning top-half teams who sign a type-A free agent won’t lose their first-round pick. They lose their second-round pick instead.

"I'm going to take a camera crew and march into Billy Beane's office and demand to know why instituting his newfangled cost-saving measures means that the run manufacturing plant had to get shut down." FJM

by Elvez on Jan 8, 2009 3:58 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Didn't know that, thats good to hear

"Who's this Seagon guy? Is he in A-ball or something?" - Billy Beane

by pickinmachine on Jan 8, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey whoops. "Reply Button!!1"

"I'm going to take a camera crew and march into Billy Beane's office and demand to know why instituting his newfangled cost-saving measures means that the run manufacturing plant had to get shut down." FJM

by Elvez on Jan 8, 2009 4:04 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Gah!

"I'm going to take a camera crew and march into Billy Beane's office and demand to know why instituting his newfangled cost-saving measures means that the run manufacturing plant had to get shut down." FJM

by Elvez on Jan 8, 2009 4:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Orlando a clubhouse cancer?

The whole “clubhouse cancer” is REALLY overblown. You don’t have to like the guy to like him on your team.

So we should be upset he threw a fit in the White Sox clubhouse because of a ruling? So what, he’s too much of a competitor and wants to succeed? This is a bad thing?

Even if he isn’t a nice guy, the A’s clubhouse has always had the reputation of being a loose, fun clubhouse.

If Milton Bradley made it through Ok, I’m pretty sure Orlando won’t have many problems, either.

In fact, I bet he would thrive in our clubhouse.

His defense IMO is better than Crosby, but let’s just call it a wash.

His offense is obviously better than Crosby.

He will make the team better and he is NOT going to get the money he is looking for. If we can get him for cheap, why NOT sign him?

Oh yea, that’s right… lets keep Bobby, not because Bobby is an inferior player, but because hes “NICER”.

by BillMoresi on Jan 8, 2009 4:09 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

What could we get for Crosby?

It seems like the biggest downside to adding Cabrera is that the A’s would have to forfeit their second round pick to get him. Maybe that value could be re-couped by trading Crosby.

I know he passed through waivers so nobody is really aching to acquire him, but if Kotsay + money can bring back Devine and Richmond then maybe Crosby + money could bring back a prospect with value similar to a second round pick.

Maybe Crosby is just so bad that even with 3-4 M thrown in he still wouldn’t bring anything back of value but I think he could. Especially if Cabrera signs for a deal similar to what Crosby is making this year. Then for only 3-4 M over what was spent on SS we get a slight improvement and a prospect but no second round pick.

by DiegoAsFan on Jan 8, 2009 4:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Kotsay was good once, and the Braves were hoping he'd recovered from injury.

Crosby is perfectly healthy.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 8, 2009 6:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Salary Dump

Get ready for a too-old-for-his-level minor leaguer whose greatest career accomplishment is now and forever will be hitting 2 dingers for the Chattanooga Barnswallows on “Free Taco Night.” That is what the A’s could get for Crosby.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jan 9, 2009 11:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Free TACOS???!!?!?!?!?!?!?

 but can they hit the low slider?

by A'sfaninNC on Jan 9, 2009 12:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

One thing I haven't seen mentioned...

Crosby is in his walk year. And everyone plays better in the final year of a contract. Obviously it is nothing that can be predicted, but does Crosby have a better year simply because he realizes this may be his only chance to land a decent contract?

I don’t think signing Cabrera is going to do what everyone is hoping. I say we stick with Crosby, ride the walk year, and let him go.

Who needs homeruns?

by robber23 on Jan 8, 2009 4:28 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

yeah this is kindof what i'm hoping, just let him play

if he doesn’t perform give petington a chance

and sign a SP

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 8, 2009 4:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Jon Garland was in his walk year last year. As was Nomar Garciaparra. And Emil Brown.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 8, 2009 6:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I hope you're right

Baseball Prospectus doesn’t believe in the walk year stat bump, so I guess I don’t either. But it would definitely be nice if it were to happen in Crosby’s case.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jan 9, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nate, I've tried my best to answer your question

here.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 8, 2009 5:09 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

SS

It’s a shame that there are not many appealing options at SS this year, but it’s reality. In order to replace Bobby, three things must happen, that seem prohibitively expensive for a marginal return:
             1. Billy is forced to admit drafting, developing, and signing Bobby before his arbitration years are all wrong moves. Big ego damage.
             2. We must pay part of his contract to leave and we must pay the salary of the replacement, making the replacement quite expensive(9M for O Cab after giambi was half that?)
             3. Giving up a second round draft pick(minus saved $ from Signing bonus for 2nd rounder)
      Seems like none of these events would individually be deal-breakers, but their cumulative damage should be avoided. Maybe a 3 team trade?…Petit is 24 and played well in the venezuelan winter league…..Randomly: I was doin some research and Travis Buck started 20 games at 3B Junior year at ASU…..

by greenpaddedgloves on Jan 8, 2009 5:50 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

1) Everybody knows Beane made a mistake

2) Sunk costs don’t matter
3) Draft a signability guy in a lower round or sign an extra international.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 8, 2009 6:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

SS

Ok, so the scenario some have is: trade Crosby for a C+ minor leaguer, and eat 4-5.25 million. Obtain FA SS, pay his salary, 5-9 million and give up a 2nd rounder. I do not see this happening for any FA SS.

by greenpaddedgloves on Jan 8, 2009 6:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Its not

cabrera that concerns me, its the draft pick we’d give up to get him

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Jan 8, 2009 6:19 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

The loss of a 2nd round pick should not concern anyone

In a typical year, you’ll get 3 or 4 decent players out of a 2nd round, with a few more guys hanging around the fringes. Example: the 2001 2nd round, which produced 3 good players (Shoppach, Haren, Hardy), 10 other players who have cracked the majors, many of highly dubious quality, and 17 players who’ve never played a game in MLB.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 12:31 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

wasnt trevor cahill a second rounder?

there are good players to be had in the second round that will be worth more than a slightly above average SS, even if our present one sucks

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Jan 9, 2009 8:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, however, the odds are that the ones the A's draft are not going to be those players

Most players who are drafted in the second round, even by the best-drafting teams, are busts.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 10:01 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

so where do major leaguers come from? the sky?

they come from the draft, second round included. the guys who are drafted in the second round are valued to be second round worthy and are believed to be future major league players, regardless of what actually happens. Point is, by taking Cabrera, a slightly above average SS, we’re missing out on the chance to draft a more valuable player who will help us out more over time. I mean, what are the odds any prospect becomes a major league regular? That doesn’t mean we trade Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Chris Carter for someone like Orlando Cabrera simply because the odds are not in thier favor

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Jan 9, 2009 10:50 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

sometimes they come from the free agent market

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Jan 9, 2009 11:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

since A's are more willing to pay over slot now

losing a 2nd rd pick shouldnt be a big issue

60. Freddie Bynum IF OAK 20 3/15/1980 6-1 180 L-R MLB 2005-2008 Pitt Community College
69. Neal Cotts P OAK 21 3/25/1980 6-2 200 L-L MLB 2003-2008 Illinois State University
67. Steve Stanley OF OAK 22 12/23/1979 5-8 155 L-L AAA - University of Notre Dame
62. Andre Ethier OF OAK 21 4/10/1982 6-3 200 L-L MLB 2006-2008 Arizona State University
49. Michael Rogers P OAK 21 10/24/1982 6-1 195 R-R AA North Carolina State University
67. Kurt Suzuki C OAK 20 10/4/1983 5-11 200 R-R MLB 2007-2008 Cal State Fullerton
53. Craig Italiano rhp OAK 18 7/22/1986 6-3 190 R-R A+ Flower Mound High School (Flower Mound,TX)
69. Jared Lansford rhp OAK 18 10/22/1986 6-2 190 R-R AA St. Francis High School (Mountain View,CA)
66. Trevor Cahill P OAK 18 3/1/1988 6-3 195 R-R AA Vista High School (Vista,CA)
74. Grant Desme OF OAK 21 4/4/1986 6-2 205 R-R A- Cal Poly
90. Josh Horton SS OAK 21 2/19/1986 6-1 195 L-R A+ University of North Carolina
58. Tyson Ross RHP OAK 21 4/22/1987 6-6 225 R-R A University of California

by Asfan4ever723 on Jan 9, 2009 12:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Save the Cabrera money and the draft pick

get Sheets.

…Id even take Pedro.

www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.

by ChadGod on Jan 9, 2009 1:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sheets also costs a pick...

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

2nd round

Would you not rather have 7 million dollars and one of the 12 players (previos 2nd rounders) that you listed, then Cabrera? I would. Sure Stanley and Rogers are busts, but all the rest have some value. Ethier and Suzuki are MLB starters. If the A’s pay over slot, I like the 2nd even more.

by dougald1 on Jan 10, 2009 5:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

3 out of 11 is not great odds

and that’s basically what you’re looking at. Ross shouldn’t even be included because he barely has pro experience, Desme and Horton look like busts, Italiano and Lansford don’t project as better than decent middle relievers, and Cotts already is only a decent middle reliever.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 10, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you not listening, or are you just closing your ears?

50% of second rounders never make the majors. Most of the rest are bench filler.

Second round picks are not worth very much at all. It’s ridiculous to compare an a priori second round pick to prospects like Cahill who have already proven themselves in pro ball. If trading picks was allowed, I’d give up my second round picks for the next 10 years in exchange for a prospect of Cahill’s caliber.

You’re missing out on “the chance” to draft a player better than Cabrera. You’re also missing out on the much more likely “chance” of drafting a player who is garbage.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 9, 2009 2:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Cabrera is a proven overpaid mediocrity.

His potential upside is that he maintains his present level of mediocrity instead of declining. Obtaining a year or two of him while giving up a decent chance of, at the very least, a cost-controlled mediocrity, to say nothing of the smaller chance for a cost-controlled player of higher quality is hardly buying a lottery ticket.

by Nate on Jan 9, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, this is pretty much what i was trying to say

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Jan 10, 2009 5:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Several points

Cabrera might be a mediocrity, but he is a mediocrity who’s around league average at one of the most difficult defensive positions.

The typical 2nd round pick does NOT end up as the OC. Not even a 34 year old OC in decline. The typical 2nd round pick is maybe a Jose Castillo type. Someone who hits like a SS, but can’t handle the position defensively, while not being able to hit like a 3b or even a 2b. Do guys like that have value? Yes.

But, the key point IMO, is where your team is. If you project as a 70 win team, and aren’t really trying to contend,then by all means hang on to the pick, instead of going for proven veteran mediocrity. With the A’s getting Holliday and Giambi, and the Angels doing nothing much so far, I don’t agree that the A’s are in a position where they should just punt the season.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jan 10, 2009 5:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What if we just think Cabrera isn't very good, and it's not worth spending about $12 million on bad shortstops?

Unless you think some team will all of a sudden take on Crosby and his salary.

The pick is only part of it. Cabrera is on the decline, and he barely cracked a .700 OPS playing at Comiskey. .650 in Oakland isn’t a stretch. And since he has a career .579 OPS in 151 PA in Oakland, it’s not as though he’s done well in the park in a somewhat small sample size.

by thejd44 on Jan 10, 2009 12:48 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Crosby is sunk cost.

Regardless of what you do, you’re paying him.

Also, firstly, that 151 PA is a ridiculously small sample size. That’s about a quarter of a season. Furthermore, those 151 PAs were spread out over how many years?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jan 10, 2009 5:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think those stats you cite in the fanpost explain the appeal-

Below average but not terrible hitter, good fielding SS. A somewhat substantial upgrade on Crosby. That appeals to me.

With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery

by mikeA on Jan 8, 2009 6:36 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I don't care about the draft pick.

I just don’t want Cabrera.

Sheets would be a bigger improvement.

"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."

by Blicks on Jan 10, 2009 5:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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