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AN Community Prospect List - #49

Brad Kilby, LHP wins the #48th spot with 26% of the vote.

Key:
Letter Grade = John Sickels Letter Grade
BA# = Baseball America Top A's Ranking
Mi# = Minor League Ball Community Prospect List Rank
BP# = Baseball Prospectus Top A's Rank
#X = Baseball Prospects Star Grade
S# = Scout.com's Top A's List

SC = StatsCorner
FG = FanGraphs

NOTE: FIP or wOBA stat will be placed for the level the prospect spent the most time at. FIP will be used for Pitchers, wOBA for Hitters. .000 or 0.00 indicates that the stat is unavailable.

AthleticsNation Top Prospect List:

  1. [SC] [FG] [2.63] Trevor Cahill, RHP [A-] [BA2] [Mi8]
  2. [SC] [FG] [2.81] Brett Anderson, LHP [A-] [BA1] [Mi16]
  3. [SC] [FG] [.384] Chris Carter, 3B/1B [B] [BA6] [Mi51]
  4. [SC] [FG] [.384] Aaron Cunningham, CF [B] [BA4] [Mi67]
  5. [SC] [FG] [3.92] Gio Gonzalez, LHP [B] [BA7] [Mi69]
  6. [SC] [FG] [.374] Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B [B] [BA5] [Mi57]
  7. [SC] [FG] [.398] Sean Doolittle, 1B/RF [B] [BA12] [Mi-??]
  8. [SC] [FG] [3.26] James Simmons, RHP [B-] [BA10] [Mi83]
  9. [SC] [FG] [3.00] Vin Mazzaro, RHP [B-] [BA8] [Mi97]
  10. [SC] [FG] [.276] Josh Donaldson, C [C+] [BA11]
  11. [SC] [FG] [000] Michel Inoa, RHP [B-] [BA3] [Mi72]
  12. [SC] [FG] [.365] Jemile Weeks, 2B [B] [BA9]
  13. [SC] [FG] [2.97] Henry Rodriguez, RHP [B-] [BA14]
  14. [SC] [FG] [.360] Rashun Dixon, CF [C+]
  15. [SC] [FG] [4.20] Fautino De Los Santos, RHP [C+]
  16. [SC] [FG] [2.74] Arnold Leon, RHP [C+]
  17. [SC] [FG] [3.54] Josh Outman, LHP [B-]
  18. [SC] [FG] [.372] Corey Brown, CF [C+] [BA13]
  19. [SC] [FG] [0.00] Brett Hunter, RHP [B-]
  20. [SC] [FG] [3.05] Sam Demel, RHP [C+]
  21. [SC] [FG] [4.04] Andrew Carignan, RHP [B-]
  22. [SC] [FG] [3.30] Tyson Ross, RHP [C+]
  23. [SC] [FG] [.385] Nino Leyja, SS
  24. [SC] [FG] [.362] Matt Sulentic, OF
  25. [SC] [FG] [2.94] Craig Italiano, RHP
  26. [SC] [FG] [.287] Gregorio Petit, SS
  27. [SC] [FG] [.388] Jason Christian, SS [C+]
  28. [SC] [FG] [4.42] Andrew Bailey, RHP [C+]
  29. [SC] [FG] [2.84] Jared Lansford, RHP
  30. [SC] [FG] [2.04] Carlos Hernandez, LHP
  31. [SC] [FG] [.362] Dusty Coleman, SS
  32. [SC] [FG] [.368] Cliff Pennington, SS
  33. [SC] [FG] [.319] Petey Paramore, C [C+]
  34. [SC] [FG] [.309] Matt Spencer, OF/1B
  35. [SC] [FG] [.328] Javier Herrera, OF
  36. [SC] [FG] [.340] Landon Powell, C
  37. [SC] [FG] [4.55] Travis Banwart, RHP
  38. [SC] [FG] [.357] Jeff Baisley, 3B
  39. [SC] [FG] [.000] Robin Rosario, OF
  40. [SC] [FG] [.000] Grant Desme, OF
  41. [SC] [FG] [.000] Joel Galarraga, C
  42. [SC] [FG] [.315] Jermaine Mitchell, OF
  43. [SC] [FG] [2.66] Daniel Thomas, RHP
  44. [SC] [FG] [2.13] Scott Mitchinson, RHP
  45. [SC] [FG] [3.36] Ronny Morla, RHP
  46. [SC] [FG] [3.87] Anthony Capra, LHP
  47. [SC] [FG] [.355] Tyreace House, OF
  48. Brad Kilby, LHP

[Sickels has revised his grades on Trevor Cahil and Brett Anderson to A-]

New Addition to the Candidates List:
Pedro Figueroa, LHP
Ricardo Penalba, RHP
[SC] [FG] Jason Fernandez, RHP
Shawn Haviland, RHP

Dropped From List:
[SC] [FG] Jeff Gray, RHP
[SC] [FG] Michael Madsen, RHP
JD Pruit, OF
Joshua Horton, SS

Testers:  
Jamie Richmond, RHP
Justin Sellers, SS
[SC] [FG] Jeff Gray, RHP
[SC] [FG] Michael Madsen, RHP
JD Pruit, OF
Joshua Horton, SS

[x] removed due to ineligibility (over 130 AB or 50 IP)

Lower than 4% of the vote will get you bumped down from the list.

CANDIDATES:
Pitchers:
Ryan Webb, RHP
Pedro Figueroa, LHP
Ricardo Penalba, RHP
[SC] [FG] Jason Fernandez, RHP
Shawn Haviland, RHP

Infielders/Catchers:
[SC] [FG] Anthony Recker, C

Outfielders:
[SC] [FG] Jeremy Barfield, OF
Richie Robnett, OF
David Thomas, OF
Danny Putnam, OF

POSSIBLES:
Pitchers:
Ryan Doolittle, RHP
Ricardo Penalba, RHP
Scott Hodsen, RHP
Jason Windsor, RHP
Jason Glushon, RHP
Mike Benacka, RHP
Jose Guzman, RHP
Chris Farley, RHP
Graham Godfrey, RHP
Patrick Currin, RHP
Jose Fragaso, RHP
Ben Hornbeck, LHP
Chad Kerfoot, RHP
Lance Sewell, LHP
Leonardo Espinal, RHP
Justin Friend, RHP
Nick Walters, LHP
Kenny Smalley, RHP
Mike Hart, RHP
Trey Barham, LHP
Pedro Vidal, RHP
Mickey Storey, RHP
Jonathan Joseph, RHP
Juston Street, RHP

Infield/Catcher:
Franklin Contreras, SS
Tommy Everidge, 1B
Matt Smith, C
Larry Cobb, 2B
Jake Smith, C
Michael Richards, SS
Ryne Jernigan, 2B
Franklin Hernandez, 1B
Neudy Clime, 2B

Outfield:
Chris Berroa, OF
Jose Crisostomo, OF
Mike Massaro, OF
Jon Zeringue, OF
Archie Gilbert, OF
Toddric Johnson, OF
Jose Crisostomo, OF

Unknown (Minor League Free Agents):
Jose Garcia, RHP
Brad Knox, RHP
Shane Komine, RHP
David Shafer, RHP
Casey Rogowski, 1B

If you have a suggestion for the next player to be put on the list, please say so in the comments.

The Prospect Depth Chart below should help, at a glance, to tell how deep the A's are at each position, in terms of quality and quantity. List is ranked by order they appear in the Community Prospect List.

The stats below are tRA+ for Pitchers and wOBA+ for Hitters. 000+ indicates that no stats were available.

A's Top Prospect Depth Chart:
Starting Pitching:
[SC] [FG] [137+] Trevor Cahill, RHP
[SC] [FG] [133+] Brett Anderson, LHP
[SC] [FG] [119+] Gio Gonzalez, LHP
[SC] [FG] [114+] James Simmons, RHP
[SC] [FG] [126+] Vin Mazzaro, RHP
[SC] [FG] [000+] ]Michel Inoa, RHP
[SC] [FG] [136+] Henry Rodriguez, RHP
[SC] [FG] [000+] Fautino De Los Santos, RHP
[SC] [FG] [136+] Arnold Leon, RHP #
[SC] [FG] [107+] Josh Outman, LHP #
[SC] [FG] [076+] Brett Hunter, RHP
[SC] [FG] [114+] Tyson Ross, RHP
[SC] [FG] [118+] Craig Italiano, RHP
[SC] [FG] [124+] Carlos Hernandez, LHP

Relief Pitching:
[SC] [FG] [136+] Henry Rodriguez, RHP #
[SC] [FG] [136+] Arnold Leon, RHP
[SC] [FG] [107+] Josh Outman, LHP
[SC] [FG] [131+] Sam Demel, RHP
[SC] [FG] [083+] Andrew Carignan, RHP
[SC] [FG] [118+] Craig Italiano, RHP #
[SC] [FG] [080+] Andrew Bailey, RHP
[SC] [FG] [127+] Jared Lansford, RHP
[SC] [FG] [081+] Travis Banwart, RHP

Catcher:
[SC] [FG] [087+] Josh Donaldson, C
[SC] [FG] [102+] Petey Paramore, C 
[SC] [FG] [099+] Landon Powell, C
[SC] [FG] Joel Galarraga, C

First Base/Designated Hitter:
[SC] [FG] [117+] Chris Carter, 3B/1B #
[SC] [FG] [115+] Sean Doolittle, 1B/RF #
[SC] [FG] [106+] Matt Spencer, OF/1B

Middle Infield:
[SC] [FG] [107+] Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B #
[SC] [FG] [122+] Jemile Weeks, 2B
[SC] [FG] [000+] Nino Leyja, SS #
[SC] [FG] [086+] Gregorio Petit, SS
[SC] [FG] [103+] Jason Christian, SS
[SC] [FG] [000+] Dusty Coleman, SS
[SC] [FG] [105+] Cliff Pennington, SS

Third Base:
[SC] [FG] [117+] Chris Carter, 3B/1B
[SC] [FG] [107+] Adrian Cardenas, SS/2B
[SC] [FG] [000+] Nino Leyja, SS
[SC] [FG] [109+] Jeff Baisley, 3B

Centerfield:
[SC] [FG] [116+] Aaron Cunningham, CF
[SC] [FG] [000+] Rashun Dixon, CF
[SC] [FG] [111+] Corey Brown, CF
[SC] [FG] [101+] Javier Herrera, OF 

Outfield:
[SC] [FG] [115+] Sean Doolittle, 1B/RF
[SC] [FG] [109+] Matt Sulentic, OF
[SC] [FG] [106+] Matt Spencer, OF/1B #
[SC] [FG] [101+] Javier Herrera, OF #
[SC] [FG] Robin Rosario, OF
[SC] [FG] Grant Desme, OF 

[#] Some players may be listed at multiple positions. # indicates that this is their most likely position, or best position they can stick at. Other instances of the player mean that they can/might shift over to that position eventually, in either best case or worst case scenario. This does not take into account other players/prospects pushing them out of that position. [#]

The System has gone in several places from a position of need to a position of depth, and visa versa. Middle Infield, as soon as mid 2008, was a barren wasteland, with only Petit and Pennington there who could amount to anything. Since then, we've seen a haul of Middle Infield draft prospects as well as Adrian Cardenas from the Joe Blanton trade. The Problem for the A's, however, is that pretty much all of this Middle Infield Depth is in the low minors, quite a few years away, while there is a pressing need at the MLB Level for a quality Shortstop.

Starting Pitching has also become a place of massive depth compared to 2007, when the system had great pitching in the Majors, but almost nothing in the minors-when Jason Windsor, Shane Komine and Mike Madsen were being touted as our top prospects.

But just as Pitching and Middle Infield depth has grown, the system is completely barren of Corner Infield depth. The only real true Corner Infield prospects the team has are Chris Carter and Sean Doolittle, both who are 1B prospects, though the team is trying to get Carter to stick at 3B. If he does somehow manage to play average, or slightly below, at 3B in the Majors, he would be a great welcome, but thus far it is not known if he can stick there, or even at First Base. Doolittle looks like a Gold Glove 1B, and a good hitter, but not quite as good as Carter with the bat. But aside from those two, there is no one else there (unless you count Matt Spencer and hope that his 2nd half of 2008 was the real Spencer). Compared to years past, when 1B/DH was the teams position of strength, this is definitely a change.

The System also has a rather amazing amount of Center field depth in the system, though somewhat a lack of Corner Outfield depth up the chart. This is made up for, though, by the slew of young outfielders on the 25 man roster (Sweeney and Buck), and OF depth on the 40 man Roster (Denorfia, Davis, Murton, etc...).

Catcher is also somewhat thin, but with Kurt Suzuki installed in the Majors, it is not a pressing need. Galarraga and Powell should battle for the Backup Catcher spot in 2009 or 2010, whenever Rob Bowen becomes obsolete or too expensive. And by the time that Suzuki is ready to leave, Josh Donaldson or Pete Paramore should be ready.

Poll
Who is the A's #49th Prospect?
Ryan Webb
17 votes
Pedro Figueroa
7 votes
Ricardo Penalba
0 votes
Jason Fernandez
6 votes
Shawn Haviland
2 votes
Anthony Recker
13 votes
Jeremy Barfield
7 votes
Richie Robnett
13 votes
David Thomas
27 votes
Danny Putnam
12 votes

104 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 23 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Comments

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fernandez

decent numbers and im curious to see where hell end up next year

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 7, 2009 4:32 PM PST reply actions  

David Thomas again

He’s a good athelete with an interesting bat.

I can’t see Webb ever being a SP for the A’s, not only would he have to improve quite a bit, but a ton of guys who are better then him would have to fail.

I don’t think Recker ever gets good enough behind the plate to play in MLB and his bat isn’t good enough to play anywhere else.

Robnett and Putnam to me are 4A at best and have very little shot of making it as even 4th OF at the major league level.

by OkayJay81 on Jan 7, 2009 4:36 PM PST reply actions  

I could see Webb putting it together, but I agree it's not likely

The thing I like about Thomas is that because he probably wasn’t scouted much (if at all), it’s possible that he’s better than his draft position would normally indicate. The more high-profile a guy’s school is, the less likely it is that he can sneak through the cracks.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 7, 2009 4:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Yea, I agree on that point

It’s pretty hard to ignore the low success rate for players drafted outside the 5th round without bonus concerns, but I’m hoping that because he was from such a small school that he was under scouted and that he might have some of the tools that would give him a higher skill base than you would expect from a player drafted in his spot.

by OkayJay81 on Jan 7, 2009 5:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Also, in regards to Webb

It’s not just that I think he is unlikely to put it together, but that even if he does it is likely that at least 5 other young pitchers in the system “put it together” a bit better and Webb is still left on the outside looking in.

I can envision a scenario where he is a passable 5th starter in MLB, it’s just much harder for me to see him being one of the 5 best starters in the A’s organization.

by OkayJay81 on Jan 7, 2009 5:25 PM PST up reply actions  

I picked Webb. He has a puncher's chance at being the next Mazzaro.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 7, 2009 6:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Except that

Webb has never been considered as highly as Mazzaro was, and he is older and been in the minors longer without a breakout.

Also, predicting Mazzaro-like break outs for pitchers are pretty long odds. Not many pitchers struggle for the entire minor league career and then instantly figure it out at the upper levels.

by OkayJay81 on Jan 7, 2009 7:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Well Webb did start throwing harder in 2008 -- getting up into the 93-95 range.

He apparently has a good cutter and decent change up. And we are at #49. Webb was the 127th pick in 2004 and Mazzaro the 101st in 2005. That isn’t a massive gap.

I agree it’s long odds, but isn’t that true for anyone at this point? I guess Thomas would be my next choice.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 7, 2009 8:00 PM PST up reply actions  

There is a case to be made for Webb here

The increased velocity and types of pitches are valid reasons. I was just against using Mazarro’s break-out as a reason to predict Webb breaking out. They are very different pitchers and while they might have been drafted around the same level Mazzaro was picked for his repertoire and considered advanced in his approach, Webb was picked for his projectable body and the assumption that his stuff would improve.

by OkayJay81 on Jan 7, 2009 11:52 PM PST up reply actions  

The question is if Mazzaro's breakout was real or not.

He was awesome at AA, but not good at AAA.

But then again, he is at the age where many pitchers break out in College. One notable example of late was Brandon Morrow. I watched him pitch at CAL, and when I saw him, the only thing that was at all impressive about him was that he threw like 94 (and we only knew that because the Scouts at the game told us when we asked how fast he was throwing-it seemed slower).

But, he went to the Cape Cod League, found something, gained a few MPH, and all of a sudden broke out.

But, I am still rather skeptical, and thats why I thought Mazzaro would be good trade bait.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Jan 8, 2009 12:03 AM PST up reply actions  

He was fine in AAA

Not great, but his FIP was 4.3. He was very hit-unlucky. Of course, he was very hit-lucky in AA, so… well, the point is, ERA is not a good metric for prospects.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 8, 2009 12:12 AM PST up reply actions  

Unfortunately it looks like a lot of others share you skepticism on Vince.

I agree with your points on Mazzaro and Webb being different types of pitchers and different types of draft picks. My comparison related only to the previously mediocre performance and underlying better talent.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 8, 2009 12:13 AM PST up reply actions  

i just don't care anymore

i guess i’ll vote for dave thomas

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Jan 7, 2009 4:44 PM PST reply actions  

Is Wendy Thomas an option?

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jan 7, 2009 5:10 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm thinking arby's

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Jan 7, 2009 10:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Everybody loves The Thomas

He is a Terrific Athlete!

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Jan 7, 2009 5:17 PM PST reply actions  

that he's made it the majors is a major plus for him

Most of those guys won’t ever see a day on a major-league field. Putnam had 11 games, albeit due to an injured roster. If he never makes the bigs again, he can say he hit a HR in the majors. Good for him!

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Jan 8, 2009 1:17 PM PST up reply actions  

I didn't vote for Ricardo Penalba, but he does look kinda interesting

He could be the next Ronny Morla

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 8, 2009 12:14 AM PST reply actions  

Might be the next Santiago Casilla, I suppose

<30 IP in 2 years isn’t exactly indicative of a lot of stamina…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 8, 2009 1:03 AM PST up reply actions  

True.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 8, 2009 2:15 AM PST up reply actions  

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