Rosterbation: Can't hit lefties
by brenarlo on Jan 6, 2009 2:51 PM PST
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PrintAssuming Giambi is signed, the lineup is pretty well set in terms of positions. It's not necessarily set in terms of batting order. The glaring problem I see with most batting order scenarios is the fact that there are too many lefties. Perhaps it's not that there are too many lefties; rather, there are too many hitters who can't hit left-handed pitching.
Here is my projected lineup with their last year's OPS against lefties:
1) Buck LH (.546) - RF
2) Ellis RH (.535) - 2B
3) Giambi LH (.842) - 1B
4) Holliday RH (.896) - LF
5) Cust LH (.822) - DH
6) Chavez LH (.749) - 3B (2005)
7) Suzuki RH (.652) - C
8) Sweeney LH (.517) - CF
9) Crosby RH (.641) - SS
There were 3 hitters that had an OPS of over .800. Two of them hit left-handed strangely enough. What's troubling is that 1/3 of the lineup had an OPS un .600 against LHPs.
I'm not sure how many lefties the A's face per year, but it's safe to say they'll see their fair share in the late innings of games.
The weakest hitters against lefties in this lineup also play positions with no immediate "better" option. Ellis has to play 2B. Suzuki has to catch. Sweeney or Buck have to play CF.
How do we solve this dilema. Are their any low cost FAs available that can hit lefties we could get to bring in off the bench?
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I wouldnt about it for Ellis
His OPS the year before vs lefties was .984 and over .800 in 06. He can hit lefties just fine.
Bring back Hammer.
Good point...
"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra
Matt Murton could be use in this fasion versus Lefties
Chris Denorfia probably as well.
facepalm.jpg
Murton would be a nice new Kielty
He’s even a red-head!
Our bench may not have space though. Bowen (or Powell) has to be there. Pennington (or Petit) is probably the backup SS/2b. Baisley would be my choice of backup 3b/1b. That already leaves out Hannahan, since we have one more space for a backup OF. Davis is the incumbent. And with 13 position players, that would leave no room for Murton. I suppose Murton could replace Davis, but Davis’ speed and D make him a perfect bench player.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I doubt Davis's spot is at all guaranteed.
His “role” is pretty much gone, with Cust at DH. If he made the team, he would be the backup CF. Period. His bat won’t let him Pinch Hit, and all of our outfielders are good defensivly, so there’s no need to replace them late in the game.
If Holliday and Buck can ‘back up’ Centerfield, than we can afford to carry a Corner Outfielder as a Backup Outfielder. If not, then the obvious choice is Chris Denorfia. Both are Right Handed, both can hit. But Denorfia can play Center.
facepalm.jpg
I Imagine that either Denoria or Cunningham will be the 4th OF
Also Powell is a switch hitter
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Cunningham will not be the 4th Outfielder
He will be in Triple A Starting, or as the Starting CF in Oakland with Sweeney as the 4th Outfielder.
facepalm.jpg
How is his role gone?
He should platoon with Sweeney in center. If he matches his projected wOBA (about .320-.325), he could be an everyday player with how good his defense is.
He’s more useful than Denorfia.
by thejd44 on Jan 7, 2009 4:24 AM PST up reply actions
Not as a starter he isn't
Denorfia is a substantially better bet to actually, you know, hit. Davis’s utility to a team is pretty much entirely as a defensive replacement and pinch runner.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I don't buy it.
Even going by Marcels, Denorfia’s .331 to Davis’ .304 is canceled out by the defensive differences.
As a #9 hitter, Davis is fine as a starter. He’s not ideal, but he’s better than Denorfia.
by thejd44 on Jan 8, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
Oh, that was wOBA I was using there. Realized I didn't mention it.
And Bill James has Davis at .318 and nothing for Denorfia.
by thejd44 on Jan 8, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
I don't believe Davis is that good a hitter
Marcel is predicting inexplicable jumps in his walk rate and isolated power.
However, even if you go by that metric, the offensive difference would be worth 12 runs over a full season— more than the defensive difference.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Also, Denorfia is reputed to be a very fine CFer
Not quite Raj Davis level, but not that big a dropoff.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
SSS
Buck had an abbreviated season and was much better against lefties in 07. Ellis has been better against lefties his whole career, that’s an aberration. Sweeney won’t play against lefties if he continues to hit that poorly.
Crosby just sucks, period, it’s not a lefty-righty thing.
Suzuki is an interesting case — but, at this point in his career with a pretty small sample size, his relative performance should be regressed almost all the way to the mean …
I wouldn’t worry about it.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Devo speaketh truth
The A’s lineup is going to have some issues with lefthanders, but judicious use of platoon players might ease that a little. Sweeney definitely shouldn’t be starting against lefties. Chavez will probably require some off days anyway, so the A’s can give them to him when lefties are starting and start Dillon or Baisley on those days.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
But the A's don't really judiciously platoon, not like most teams
That’s probably the aspect of their strategy that really annoys me; it’s one reason the bench gets so little work.
that's always confused/frustrated me, too
Even when they’ve had excellent platoon setups on the roster with the second-banana players being relatively healthy, they haven’t platooned judiciously — not under Howe, not under Macha, not under Geren.
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
No doubt a command handed down from BB
Same with pinch-hitting. At least last year you had the low-OBP types stealing bases a little, so maybe there’s hope for platooning.
I wonder what sort of analysis supports platooning vs. reveals how overrated/ineffective it is? BB seems so anti-platooning that he must have some models that he really believes in.
I have to disagree, at least with the Geren part
He’s shown a willingness to platoon players, it’s just that those platoons seem constantly to get broken up by one of the players getting injured (or someone ELSE getting injured so that both platoon members have to start).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Last year's line-up couldn't hit anybody
This is at least progress.
The monster at the end of this blog.
My thoughts exactly.
It’s not really that our lineup can’t hit lefties. It’s just that it sometimes has people like Bobby Crosby and Donnie Murphy and Eric Patterson and Rob Bowen in it…
we needed a 43-man roster
Our starters, plus 9 platoon hitters who could hit righties, plus 9 platoon players who could hit lefties.
I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@
Honestly, it wouldn't shock me if he was the guy DFAed for Giambi...
For the life of me, I cannot figure out what the point of that pick was.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
to waste money?
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 6, 2009 6:45 PM PST up reply actions
over the last three years
over 72% of the A’s plate appearances have come against right-handed pitching.
Javier Herrera could be a dark horse for the Kielty position.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
I wouldn't mind rushing him
What’s there to lose? He has the tools to succeed. And he did hit LHP well in a SSS this year. He’s not gonna be an A if he doesn’t stick this year anyway. Try him and see if he somehow pulls a Hanley.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
The problem is exaggerated.
- Buck has actually been a better career major league hitter versus LHP than RHP (.817 OPS vs. .807 OPS). In the minors, he hit righties better than lefties but showed no real weakness against lefties (.819 OPS but over .300 BA and over .400 OBP). If he’s healthy, he’ll be in the top of the lineup regardless of what hand the opposing pitcher uses and when he’s in the lineup, he’ll be productive.
- Ellis had a bad year last season any way you look at it. He’s a career lefty masher with a career OBP against lefties somewhere north of .360. He should lead-off or hit second agains most lefty starters.
- Giambi & Cust both hit for higher averages and for more power against righties, but both still reach base at high clips (.350+ OBP) against lefties and still OPS over .800 total when facing lefties.
- Holliday mashes both types of pitching equally. He’s just a stud.
- Chavez has had problems against lefties in the past and sometimes just looks foolish against them. His production against lefties could be an issue.
- Suzuki has a reverse platoon split so far in his brief major league career. He’s much better against righties than lefties. I guess he just doesn’t pick up change-ups very well. This could be a problem if the issue persists later into Suzuki’s career, but since Suzuki isn’t being counted on this season to be a key run producer, I wouldn’t worry about his place in the order.
- Sweeney really struggled against lefties last season and minor league splits indicate that he’s had trouble against them his entire pro career. This could be a problem and could ultimately limit Sweeney’s upside.
- Crosby’s just a terrible batsman. Period.
So, it seems like the problem areas against LHP really boils down to CF, 3rd base and catcher. In center field, the team should just platoon Chris Denorfia with Ryan Sweeney most of the time. Denorfia got healthy, put it all together and mashed the ball late season at AAA and he’s a career .955 OPS hitter against lefty pitchers in the minors. He’s also a solid defensive center fielder. Problem solved.
At 3rd, the recently-acquired-but-oft-overlooked Joe Dillon should be used in a platoon with Chavez. The guy’s nothing special with the glove, but he can mash lefties (career .923 OPS against in the minors) and since Chavez is going to need plenty of rest anyways, why not take the platoon advantage when you can get it? Problem solved.
At catcher, why not just use Bowen more often. Who knows, he might put in a Melhuse 2004 type of season if given the opportunity.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
Prove to me that Powell can catch more than half a season
at the upper levels of the minors and STAY healthy doing it and I’d be on board with that plan.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
Roster spots
I can see Dillon (or Baisley) making the team instead of Hannahan, but I’m not sure how you find room for Denorfia on the roster unless you think the team will carry 14 position players, (or you’re reasonably assuming that Buck will be on the DL).
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
Hmmm, let me see.
1. Duke
2. Gallagher
3. Eveland
4. Braden
5. Gio
6. Devine
7. Ziggy
8. Blevins
9. Casilla
10. Schroeder
11. Brown
12. Outman
13. Holliday
14. Sweeney
15. Buck
16. Chavez
17. Crosby
18. Ellis
19. Giambi
20. Suzuki
21. Cust
22. Pennington
23. Bowen
24. Dillon
25. Denofia
Who am I missing? Barton and Hannahan back to AAA…
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
Oh
I’m assuming Barton still makes the team and sees significant playing time.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
Dillon is presumably backing up Giambi in this scenario
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
No I think that's Buck,
charging hard when the ball goes through Giambi’s legs.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Couldn't Denorfia take Rajai Davis' 5th OFer spot?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Giambi is essentially taking that spot
unless you’re assuming, as Taj is, that Barton will be sent down to AAA.
10 (semi-)regulars: Barton, Giambi, Ellis, Crosby, Chavez, Holliday, Sweeney, Cust, Buck, Suzuki
Bowen (or whoever) at backup catcher
Pennington or Petit at backup SS
Hannahan or Dillon or Baisley at backup 3B
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
I'm assuming Barton either will start in AAA,
to play every day and re-establish his ability to drive the ball, or could be traded if the A’s feel that Giambi-Doolittle-Carter have 1B covered the next few years and that Barton can be used to solve the SS problem.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
i dont think barton will be traded any time soon
it would be selling waaaay low after last season
holdin' it down for the bay from upper westside manhattan
FWIW, the team SHOULD carry 14 position players
12 pitchers is pretty dumb, especially early in the year with all the off days.
by thejd44 on Jan 7, 2009 4:26 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
14 position players is a lot dumber than 12 pitchers
What the hell are you going to do with 5 bench players?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
You could platoon more.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 7, 2009 6:49 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, except that players hate being platooned and it's more effective to "platoon" relievers than position players
There are really only two platoon candidates on the A’s roster right now anyway (Sweeney and Chavez), and both of them already have suitable players on the roster.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
... yet another argument in favor of using robots instead of human players
This is hardball! This is where we overreact! @('.')@
Which suitable players?
We seem to be going in circles here: this sub-sub-thread began when I pointed out that, with 13 position players on the roster, it appears there is room for one of Dillon/Baisley to back up/platoon with Chavez OR one of Denorfia/Davis/Murton to back up/platoon with Sweeney, but not both.
That was assuming that Barton is on the team, an assumption which is looking more justified now, and that one of Pennington/Petit makes the team to back up the middle infield positions.
Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough
Lineup is as follows
2 catchers
IF: Barton, Baisley, Petit, Chavez, Ellis
OF: Cust, Sweeney, Buck, Holliday, Denorfia
DH: Giambi
Not spotting the problem.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Adding on to Taj's excellent analysis,
Chavez has made strides against LHP his most recent seasons as he has matured. It’s still an issue but I feel a lot better about him against LHP now than I did 3-4 years ago.
As for Suzuki, if the reverse-split persists at least it’s the best way – he hits better against the type of pitcher the A’s will see 3/4 of the time.
So ultimately, how best to address the A’s weakness against LHP? Get rid of Crosby. It’s pretty much the answer to addressing any weakness, really.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Nice Synopsis but...
I’d never platoon for Chavez as his defensive prowess takes away more runs than I suspect Joe Dillon could produce offensively. Then only reason to sit Chavez is to ensure he doesn’t strain his shoulder or lumbar region due to repetitive use from not playing consistently over the past 2 seasons. If he sits 2 out of every 7 games I think he may remain strong and productive throughout the season.
While most of AN and Beane have soured on Crosby, his time lost on the DL over the last 4 seasons makes him a very unseasoned 6 yr player. I assume he’ll be gone before April, but if he does stick around I think most of his teamates and Beane can tolerate his glove and bat for this season.
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
If he's gonna sit 2 of 7 games, why not against a lefty?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 7, 2009 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
He's only going to sit 1 of every 7 games ...
and you will generally want that one to be before/after an off-day, so he can have consecutive days off to rest up. On average at least one of those starters will be a lefty about half of the time …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Agreed but none of this is suggesting a "platoon"
"I've been accused of using too many words...I suppose that's like accusing Mozart of using too many notes." Bill King
Exactly ... I was agreeing with you ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Possible lineups pals
Yes yes yes we are overpowered with left handed hitters, but i think we will be just fine
but now that giambi is back in green and gold, and if this is the remaining of offseason pick ups (i hope not) this will be opening days lineup
1- Buck- RF
2-Sweeney-CF
3-Holliday-LF
4-Cust-DH
5-Giambi-1B
6-Chavez-3B
7-Suzuki-C
8-Ellis-2B
9-Crosby-SS
Anyone wanna argue that one?
Buck has to lead off, decent speed, when healthy can definetly be a great hitter with an upside of power, sweeney has to be 2 because the older he gets the greater his power will be and his overall game at the plate and basepaths will grow, holliday is third obviously because he will bring them all home, and you CAN NOT have cust in front of holliday because he will do nothing but stop holliday from stealing bases with all of his walks, giambi will come and get on base, hopefully chavvy is healthy, i do hate that suzuki has to be 7 because i think he is a great singles hitter and will eventually grow into a gap hitter, and we all know why ellis and crosby are at the end. i have way more to say but this is allready way to long, blahhh
I wonder how many stolen bases he could possibly lose
Certainly not as many as the ABs he’d lose with a runner on base, which is exactly what you want when he bats.
au contra ire
Worrying about Holliday's stolen bases
is like worrying about Rajai Davis’ HRs. Holliday will steal when he finds himself on 1B with 2B open; he doesn’t have to steal every time he’s on 1B and his value to the lineup is not his base stealing ability, it’s his .300/30/100 hitting. It’s really not anything to worry about one way or the other.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I wish I had to find a bomb shelter 15-25 times a year
But alas, RJ homers are gravy, just like Holliday’s SBs.
au contra ire
Sweeney = bad #2 hitter
Why do people keep putting better hitters so far down in the order? In this lineup, Sweeney is no better than the 7th best hitter.
by thejd44 on Jan 7, 2009 4:27 AM PST up reply actions
Yes...me
Who Cares Holliday stolen bases, he´s here to produce runs and needs people on base to do that, either Cust or Giambi have to hit in front of him, if you ask me Cust needs more protection than Giambi so I would go Cust-Holliday Giambi…besides can you imagine how many lefties from the bullpen will see the Cust-Giambi-Chavez group, they need a RH in the middle…
Yeah, that's a pretty dumb reason to not have Cust in front of Holliday.
Holliday is a more valuable player with Cust on base than with him not on base.
by thejd44 on Jan 7, 2009 4:27 AM PST up reply actions
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