I’m not arguing that we should release Jack Cust here. I’m saying we shouldn’t hit him in the 2-hole. Try to stay on point.

I concede that Cust can be a valuable piece of a playoff roster. I just don’t think you want him running the bases in front of Matt Holliday.

You must be in law school or a lawyer. How do I know? Because I, too, am a lawyer, and I’ve spent most of my professional career dealing with ridiculous statements like that…

Basic statistics are great over the course of a season, when the “law of averages” (a statistical term) balances things out. Over the course of a single game, statistics are much less relevant. Cust may hit a HR every five games, which over the course of a season means 30-32 HRs. But, in any three- or five-game stretch, it would not be all that surprising to see Cust hit zero HRs or three HRs.

In other words, when it comes down to a single game, you’ll care if Jack Cust is clogging up the bases, even if over the course of a season, it will tend to balance itself out.

Does my understanding of basic statistics meet your high standards, Mr. Thomas, Esq.?

I don’t mean to be a dick (or to suggest that you’re a dick), but when you get on a message board and suggest that someone else doesn’t have an “understanding of basic statistics,” you assume that you know more than you do and that everyone else you’re dealing with his a dumbass.

Hell… Jake Taylor beat out a bunt to beat the Yankees in Major League. He, too, must be a speedster.

… I’m not sure how much I trust the SX scores either, but it’s what I’ve got to work with.

I also agree that we don’t have any Jimmy Rollinses on our team, and that we have to get guys on base in front of Holliday if we want to maximize run-scoring (i.e., you don’t just put a guy like Joey Gathright, with his sub.-300 OBP, in front of Hollidayt because he’s fast).

But, if Travis Buck can put up a .350 OBP and Jack Cust puts up a .380 OBP (not unreasonable projections for either), you’re talking about 3 extra times on base per 20-25 games… not a lot. I’d rather have Travis’s speed on base in front of Holliday than Jack Cust’s slow ass in front of him. I may be dead wrong about this (I’m sure there’s some way to prove I am wrong), but it’s my personal preference.

Also… why not put Holliday at #2, Giambi at #3, and Cust at #4. If you want the high-OBP guys hitting early, why not put the fastest one first…

I’m not really saying that — what I’m saying is that I don’t want Jack Cust batting in front of Holliday. I’d prefer someone who doesn’t negate Holliday’s speed on the bases by running at half-speed in front of him. So, I wasn’t saying that we would benefit more by Jack Cust striking out; I was saying we would benefit more by allowing someone else to hit in front of Holliday, who would not slow Holliday down as he makes his way around the bases.

That said, I think you have pointed out a huge gaping hole in my argument (namely, that Cust is just as likely to leadoff in the 5-hole as he is in the 2-hole), but allow me to respond with a question: If you had two players with eqaul OBPs, one of whom was slow and the other of whom was fast, wouldn’t you put the player with more speed in front of Holliday in order to take advantage of Holliday’s speed? And, if the answer to that question is yes, then doesn’t a player’s speed add some additional benefit that has to be factored into where you place him in the lineup?

it doesnt make any sense. what clogging up the basepaths means to me: a player is so slow that the doubles and triples hitters behind him (and basestealers as well) are being held up by his super slow speed. this does not happen (especially on the a’s). do you really think that cust getting on base would hurt the team because he is “clogging the bases”?

These guys can hit.