Get Ready For The "Giambi Shift"

I'm against this.

by mikev on Jan 5, 2009 5:19 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

+1

mikev next A’s GM I hope!

by calas on Jan 5, 2009 6:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hardly.

As much as I’d absolutely love to have a front office job, there’s no way I have the qualifications for it.

NOT THAT I’M DENYING JOB OFFERS, BASEBALL TEAMS WHO MIGHT BE READING THIS BLOG.

by mikev on Jan 5, 2009 7:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

"Giambi's main issue at 1B is not fielding ground balls or scooping errant throws."

I think you need some clarifying parentheses there, Nico.

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 5, 2009 5:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I opted for our other friend: the quotation marks

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 5:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually Giambi is pretty good at

scooping errant balls. I live in NY and watched him a good bit on YES and thats the one thing hes good at, at 1B.

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Jan 5, 2009 6:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe it's unclear the way I wrote it, but

what I’m trying to say is that he scoops errant throws well.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 6:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My bad.

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Jan 5, 2009 8:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Double negative

Never fails to confuse.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 9:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

On the contrary, there's nothing confusing about it at all

“Double negative” = the ’09 WARP projections on offense and defense for Garret Anderson.

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 7:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

As long as...

…the starters can do at least as good as last season, things are looking up.

How many games did we have where we scored 1 run or fewer?

Of course, if the pendulum swings and our new starter ERA balloons to 5.something…

Still, I feel hopeful.

by juanmiguel on Jan 5, 2009 5:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately, 3/5 of those starters are in:

Philly, Chicago and Colorado

But when they start scheming us the way these guys did, and we weren't particularly ready for it, anything can happen."

by saint on Jan 5, 2009 9:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yes, but

you could argue that smith will regress significantly, harden will get injured, and well joe blanton will be the same guy who era’d 4.96 last year (altho i think hes much better than that). but i am a little skeptical of our rotation as well. ben sheets please!

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 9:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

How good does Adrian Beltre look right now?

Nice LRLR in the heart of the lineup and ensuring that infield defense remains well above average.

www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.

by ChadGod on Jan 5, 2009 5:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I don't like the idea of sending prospects to GMZ's evil regime in Seattle.

"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."

by Blicks on Jan 5, 2009 5:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

haha good point

www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.

by ChadGod on Jan 5, 2009 7:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Get him at midseason if Chavez falls apart again

He’ll probably be cheaper if the M’s obviously aren’t contenders.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 9:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Shift or shuffle?

I’d rather see the Giambi shift than watch him on the dance floor doing the Giambi shuffle.

by smellofgrass on Jan 5, 2009 5:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think Jason Giambi is gonna be just fine, folks.

His offensive production will outweigh his defensive deficiencies and the pitching should be alright, even better, if Beane signs another starter off the FA market.

By the way, anybody have a pulse on the health of Pedro Martinez? I have not heard anything about his health status at all and am interested to know where he stands. Any takers?

by mrod on Jan 5, 2009 5:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think Pedro's velocity is way down (85MPH-ish)

As incredible as he was for a long stretch, I think his time has come and gone.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 5:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I watched a lot Pedro last year

at least when he was healthy…and his velocity is down and and his control is off, leading to 100 pitches by inning number 5…he’s not worth it

"I was right and you were wrong." - Ray Fosse

by kbtoyz on Jan 5, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Split contract Mulder style.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 8:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You mean sign him for the first five innings?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He's our new closer!

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 8:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I suppose we could sign Pedro and Mulder,

for $2mil, to be our #5 starter.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Peldero?

I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico

by Leopold Bloom on Jan 5, 2009 11:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure why so many are sold on

Buck AND Sweeney as 2/3rds our OF. Neither is going hit more than 20HRS or drive in a 100 like A Dunn. Yes, they’re better defensively, but Philly had Burrell and Boston had Manny meaning since Holiday can play, we could (read: should) give up some defense for some offense in the outfield (ie. Dunn, Abreu)

Of course with Giambi now on board, I’d love to trade for Dye and have a Cust, Holiday, Giambi, Dye order that would rival just about any team west of the Mississippi.

"Baseball is like a church. Many attend, but few understand." - Wes Westrum

by oaklandfan40 on Jan 5, 2009 5:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

It's three to make two, with Cunningham

Sweeney becomes the automatic because he is slated to play CF.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 5:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed

There needs to be more power in the outfield if we stand pat with the current infield. Without adding Giambi our infield would be lucky to have 50 HRs between the five starters.

by juanmiguel on Jan 5, 2009 5:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

given Chavvy's tenuous durability, they'd be lucky to hit 30 HR among them

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 5, 2009 5:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you might have to add Orlando Cabrera to that lineup/infield.

Most of us, Beane included, are sick of Crosby at SS. The Dodgers were the only other team I have heard linked to Cabrera, and they now have Fuckall. Many teams have already filled their SS voids with cheaper, stopgap options. I don’t see much of a market at all for the guy and think Beane will end up signing him on the cheap. He will cost a draft pick which is the downside, but he’ll provide an upgrade both offensively and defensively over Crosby and I think he’s gonna end up with a 2/15 type deal. He may not hit for much power, but niether does Crosby and he’ll hit 40 points higher then Crosby on the BA side. Not an all-star, but a decent upgrade at a good price in this down market.

by JPShark on Jan 5, 2009 5:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

No.

I am NOT a Crosby fan but I’d rather run him out there than Orlando bleeping Cabrera. Yes, I hate him THAT much.

If the A's can build around Holiday, Furcal, Cust, and maybe call up 2nd baseman Wes Childs at some point in the year, they have a shot to take a weak AL West. -- jameersju post on ESPN.com

by youdownwithOBP on Jan 5, 2009 10:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If you prefer Crosby to Cabrera you ARE a Crosby fan.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 11:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know when it happened

Or how, exactly, but we did it again.

We started counting on Eric Chavez’s production. I wouldn’t pencil his name into any projected lineup without a /Hannahan or /Baisley next to it.

RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.

by walk off bunt on Jan 5, 2009 6:01 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

I don't put "Duke/Gio" but I know Duke likely won't make 32 starts

Thing is, Duke and Chavez do figure to be in the mix throughout April, and as the season progresses there are opportunities to make trades, pick-ups, call guys up, etc., so you can only project so far. Maybe Buck is dealt on May 15th in a deal that brings a 3Bman to Oakland – things happen. I’m only ready to handicap the first two months as best as I can.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah

I don’t mean to single yours out. It’s all the rosters lately. And I mainly mean to comment more on the feeling I get that we, as a community, are falling for the same old Eric Chavez offseason song and dance again because if he was anything close to what he used to be it’d give the whole “compete in ’09” campaign a lot more credibility.

RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.

by walk off bunt on Jan 5, 2009 6:09 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I've never heard Chavez as optimistic as this off-season

Usually he’s the Eeyore of pessimism and self-doubt; I do think that counts for something.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 6:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think he's optimistic

But I think we’re creeping toward that “well, maybe this year he’ll be healthy” mentality.

Not that there’s anything especially wrong with that. I just know he’s going to break my heart again. My poor, Eric Chavez-shattered heart.

RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.

by walk off bunt on Jan 5, 2009 6:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He's been optimistic in the quotes I've heard

Saying he feels great, that he will definitely be ready Opening Day, that he hasn’t felt this good in years, etc. My concern is what will change when he puts “baseball wear and tear” on his back and shoulder, but you couldn’t hope for better so far I don’t think.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 6:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh whoops

I read your original post as “I haven’t heard Chavez as optimistic this off-season.” My bad.

Well, I hope he’s not just doing the whole “best shape of my life” routine so many do during the offseason/spring training.

RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.

by walk off bunt on Jan 5, 2009 6:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Of all people, he doesn't usually

Usually it’s more like, “I can’t do anything very well, and the Angels should win the division.”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

I too fear the wear and tear. But I think what he says is good enough for me to feel like he will make through spring training and the first ~month or so of the season before a “tear” occurs.

www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.

by ChadGod on Jan 5, 2009 7:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I may shed one myself

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 7:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I completely agree that Chavez

has traditionally been the opposite of overly optimistic.

That said, let’s weigh the improbabilities:

1. Something has changed in physical condition whereby he’s now healthy in spite of his lengthy record to the contrary.

2. Something has changed in his psychological condition whereby he’s now spouting optimistic phrases in spite of his lengthy record to the contrary.

I’d say the two are about equally improbable.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jan 5, 2009 8:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My feeling is that it took him years to have

the physical procedures he needed the whole time. First it was “No knives!!! I’ll play through it!!!” and then it was “We’ll cut into the shoulder but we won’t really fix it.” Then they FINALLY did what should have been done years ago.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I thought he had surgery scheduled the year Bill King passed?

I mean, I gotta think that’s enough to scare a guy.

by mikev on Jan 5, 2009 10:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And hadn't Bill also won a gold glove the previous year?

At age 77, of course.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 10:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If he didn't, he probably should have.

RIP Bill :(

by mikev on Jan 5, 2009 10:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Jan 6, 2009 11:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

he's had plenty of time to recover, whereas he kinda rushed back in past years.

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 8:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And best of all, the most serious surgery, the back,

has had an extra year to heal. I think it’s reasonable to think his back may be ok by now (if it ever will be), whereas last year that wasn’t likely to be the case.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

im ok with him as the eeyore of pessimism

as long as he doesnt play like pooh

holdin' it down for the bay from upper westside manhattan

by SamYam on Jan 5, 2009 6:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Good point!

That I couldn’t bear.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 6:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

/pun

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Jan 6, 2009 11:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I very much agree with this sentiment

It’s like we have been sucked in, all over again, imagining a productive, healthy, third-base-playing Chavvy.

Stranger things have happened.

But the A’s cannot count on it happening.

by bear88 on Jan 5, 2009 11:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

meh......

I think you’re better off with Crosby playing his tail off in a contract year than signing Cabrera for 2 years and losing a draft pick.

If the A’s are gonna lose a draft pick it better be for Sheets, Lowe, or Manny Ramirez.

by mrod on Jan 5, 2009 6:02 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

No OC!!!!!!

by calas on Jan 5, 2009 6:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Cabrera is definately worth a draft pick.

Saying that Cabrera is not worth losing a draft pick is like saying it’s a good idea to bat Jack Cust second in the batting order – neither is a very good idea.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 7:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why...

is batting Jack Cust second in the order a bad idea? He’s got a great OBP, mostly through walks.

by richwol1 on Jan 5, 2009 7:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

One can get too caught up in convention sometimes

Cust would be a very good #2 hitter, IMO, just not a “prototypical” one. You don’t play “Scioscia ball” at the top of the order with Cust as your #2 hitter, but you might score a whole lot more runs.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

… Jack Cust ain’t no muther-f’in #2-hitter.

I have a feeling Cust is going to regress significantly this year. There simply is not much precedent for a guy who strikes out in over 40% of his ABs having sustained success. When guys like Bob Hamelin, Marcus Thames, and Kevin Maas are among your closest comps (as per Baseball Reference), your career as a hitter does not have a high probability of lasting for a long time.

So, I think the most likely result of the Giambi signing (assuming it happens), is that Giambi moves to DH at some point during the season, Barton moves back to 1B, and Cust gets inserted into the lineup where the matchup is right. The guy’s cheap enough that we won’t feel compelled to play him if he’s struggling at that plate and we’re scoring runs…

As for what do we do next: Focus on the rotation. We have to shore up the rotation; and the offense is good enough to compete with Giambi (even with “the hole” at SS).

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 12:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There also isn't much precedent for a player who walks 20% of the time NOT having sustained success

Jack Cust is a unique player. Those guys may be his closest comps, but they’re still sucky ones.

There’s no reason to expect Cust to regress in 2009. His BABIP was actually lower than one would have predicted last season. He’ll be 30, so it’s not like he’s on his last legs age-wise. I suppose it’s possible, but a Ludwick-esque breakout season is also possible…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that should be "Ludwickian"

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 12:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ludwegian

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jan 6, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I defer to this

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Every player is a unique player...

Every comp is a “sucky” comp. That’s why they’re called “comps” and not “identicals.” But they’re all we’ve got to work with…

If you want to predict a Ludwickian breakout season, that’s fine with me. I’m not saying it won’t happen. I’m just saying that when a player Ks over 40% of the time, pitchers (and pitching coaches) will find more and more weaknesses in his approach that they can exploit.

Jack Cust is an unusual player, yes. But, being unusual doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s destined for sustained success. The Bob Hamelin career path (success at age 28 and 29; out of baseball by age 31) is just as likely, if not more likely, than a Ryan Ludwick breakout.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's really a false statement

Jack Cust is at the 99th percentile of major league players in several categories (walk rate, K rate, HR/FB rate). Most players are not. There are a lot more good comps to Jason Bay than to Jack Cust.

As for Hamelin, while you’re right that he was out of baseball by age 31, I cannot for the life of me figure out why, unless it was injury-related. Dumb behavior by MLB teams toward that kind of player is nothing new. Hell, it explains how Jack Cust was in the minors for ten seasons. Russell Branyan only got a minor league deal last season. Etc etc.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No, that doesn't explain why Cust was in the minors for 10 seasons

Cust spent a lot of time in the minors because he was slow to develop. Then just as he was looking like he finally got it together (corresponding with the first time the A’s took him), he got a bad injury that set him back about another year and a half.

He may have been a bit underrated at times, but it’s a gross exaggeration to attribute his entire time in the minors to GMs not recognizing his talent. He did get tried in the bigs, by a couple different teams, but at that time he was still AAAA level.

Some guys just take longer to reach their potential. Cust is one of them.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jan 6, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He wasn't slow to develop

Age 18: .935 OPS in rookie ball
Age 19: 1.020 OPS in mostly short-season A
Age 20: 1.101 OPS in A+
Age 21: .966 OPS in AA
Age 22: .939 OPS in AAA

Those are insane hitting numbers when you factor in ARL.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That is true...

I think Bob Hamelin was out of baseball at age 31 because his GM was trying to sell jeans instead of win baseball games. Like you say, unless it was injury-related, it’s tough to figure out what happened.

And, I agree that Jack Cust’s unusual BB-rate, K-rate, and HR-FB (33% in 2007, ridiculous) make him an unusual player who is hard to project… He doesn’t fit any particular career path. Maybe I’m just a pessimist.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

In addition...

… one of the main problems with Cust hitting #2 is that he clogs up the bases for the guys coming after him. Holliday won’t be able to take advantage of his speed with Jack Cust’s fat ass loafing around the bases in front of him.

My lineup… post Giambi, would be:
Sweeney – CF
Buck – RF
Holliday – LF
Giambi – 1B
Suzuki – C
Cust – DH
Chavez – 3B
Ellis – 2B
Crosby – SS

That is, until Cust gets exposed as Kevin Maas Part Duex, and Daric Barton re-asserts himself as the A’s 1B…

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 12:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

see below

for a massive conversation about cust batting #2. i have to ask tho, can you explain “clogging up the bases” to me? i really dont see how its possible

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 6, 2009 12:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I can...

… but do you really want me to? Seems fairly self-explanatory…

Say Cust leads off the inning with a walk. NONE OUT, CUST ON FIRST.
Holliday singles, Cust only moves to second. NONE OUT, CUST ON SECOND, HOLLIDAY ON FIRST.
Giambi singles, Cust only able to move to third. NONE OUT, CUST ON THIRD, HOLLIDAY ON SECOND, GIAMBI ON FIRST.
Chavez hits a fly ball, nobody can move because Cust too slow to score. ONE OUT, CUST ON THIRD, HOLLIDAY ON SECOND, GIAMBI ON FIRST.
Suzuki grounds out to pitcher, Cust out at home. TWO OUT, HOLLIDAY ON THIRD, GIAMBI ON SECOND, SUZUKI ON FIRST.
Buck flys out. END OF INNING.

I understand what you’re saying… having more guys (i.e., Jack Cust) on base can’t possibly hurt us. But, in my example, it did. If Cust hadn’t been in front of Holliday, Holliday might have moved to third on G’s single, and scored on Chavez’s sac fly. Instead, Cust CLOGGED UP THE BASES, meaning no one could move over on productive outs.

Teams don’t only score on walks, hits, and HRs. Teams that can use their outs to score, or to increase their probability of scoring, will score more runs… So there you have it. An example of base-clogging.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 10:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You do realize that Cust isn't really an awful baserunner, right?

He’s just as likely to go first to third as basically anybody else, depending on where the ball is hit.

by mikev on Jan 6, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Really...

… Cust is just as likely to go first-to-third as Matt Holliday? I don’t think so.

Just for your reference, Baseball HQ, using the “speed score” metric, which was developed by Bill James, rates Jack Cust as having a SX of 19. Frank Thomas has a SX of 15. Bengie Molina has a SX of 14. League average is 100. So, if you think Jack Cust is flying around the bases just like everyone else, just think of Frank Thomas and Bengie Molina.

In case you were wondering, a player’s speed score is based on a number of different factors, including stolen base efficiency, stolen base frequency, triples, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base. It may not be a perfect measure, but at least it gives an idea of how effective a player is at moving himself around the bases. Put kindly, Jack Cust does not move around the bases as well as anyone else (unless you consider Frank Thomas a league-average baserunner).

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 11:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah you are confusing him with DFA

by A'sfaninNC on Jan 6, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, so in certain absurdly unlikely scenarios, it's a factor

Who the hell cares?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If it happens in a playoff game...

… you’ll care.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll care that he was a big part of getting the A's to the playoffs

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 6, 2009 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Judas Priest

I’m not arguing that we should release Jack Cust here. I’m saying we shouldn’t hit him in the 2-hole. Try to stay on point.

I concede that Cust can be a valuable piece of a playoff roster. I just don’t think you want him running the bases in front of Matt Holliday.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 1:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

In your example, Cust is leading off the inning.

Are you saying he’s more likely to lead off an inning if he’s in the #2 spot, as opposed to, say, #5?

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jan 6, 2009 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

I think I was just providing an example of “clogging up the bases.”

At this point, I’m not sure it’s really worth debating. The difference between (1) Jack Cust batting #2 and Eric Chavez hitting #5 and (2) Travis Buck hitting #2 and Jack Cust hitting #5 is fairly negligible, so go ahead and stick Jack Cust in the two-hole. I think he’s better suited to other positions in the lineup, but I don’t dispute that having a guy with a .380 OBP in the top two spots in the order would be a good thing…

Just don’t go complaining the first time Matt Holliday catches up to Jack Cust’s fat ass rounding third base.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

i just dont think cust is that slow

i mean sure he’s not gonna steal bases and hes not a speedster. but i think you’re over emphasizing his lack of speed. (problem here is, we don’t really know how fast he is). but i dont see any player (especially on the a’s) who will catch cust in a situation like that.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 6, 2009 3:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I was exaggerating

No one will actually catch Cust on the bases, but players will get held up at 2nd if Cust can’t score from 3rd, and players will get held up at 1st if Cust can’t go from 1st-to-3rd on a gapper.

Cust will affect that players who run the bases behind him. Frank Thomas did it. Bengie Molina does it. Mark McGwire used to do it.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 3:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

i see

thats a good point, but i am once again leads me back to the “we dont know how fast he actaully is” point.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 6, 2009 3:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No, I won't, because I understand basic statistics

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Does being condescending usually help you win arguments?

You must be in law school or a lawyer. How do I know? Because I, too, am a lawyer, and I’ve spent most of my professional career dealing with ridiculous statements like that…

Basic statistics are great over the course of a season, when the “law of averages” (a statistical term) balances things out. Over the course of a single game, statistics are much less relevant. Cust may hit a HR every five games, which over the course of a season means 30-32 HRs. But, in any three- or five-game stretch, it would not be all that surprising to see Cust hit zero HRs or three HRs.

In other words, when it comes down to a single game, you’ll care if Jack Cust is clogging up the bases, even if over the course of a season, it will tend to balance itself out.

Does my understanding of basic statistics meet your high standards, Mr. Thomas, Esq.?

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Your argument

is like saying that I would become afraid of lightning if my sister was killed by lightning, therefore I should be afraid of lightning now.

I don’t give a crap about lightning, and I don’t give a crap about base-clogging.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure I understand that one...

… but I’ll let it go.

I think the A’s are a better team with Cust in the 5-hole. You think they’re a better team with Cust in the 2-hole. It probably makes very little difference where he hits… We are both entitled to our own opinions of optimal lineup construction.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Your argument is structured as follows

1. If Unlikely Event X happens in Key Situation Y, you will be very upset.
2. Therefore Unlikely Event X should be avoided at all costs.

In your argument, X is base-clogging and Y is the playoffs. In my argument, X is someone dying by lighting strike and Y is my sister being the someone who dies.

It’s a bad argument because it applies to everything. Any form of poor performance is regrettable in the playoffs.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 2:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My statement about the playoffs...

… was in response to your post about “so what if this happens in certain unlikely scenarios?” My response: “You’ll care if it happens in the playoffs.”

I wasn’t making a broad, sweeping statement. I was saying you’ll care if it happens in the playoffs. Seems pretty basic to me.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's the part I'm missing in your argument.

You gave us an example of base-clogging. OK.

Now you say you like Cust better in the 5-hole than in the 2-hole.

How do you figure that your base-clogging scenario is less likely to happen with Cust at #5 than at #2? It seems to me that he’s very likely to lead off an inning at #5, whereas at #2 he’s more likely to bat with either already one out or a man on base.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jan 6, 2009 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Seems simple enough to test given the right database

Find out which positions in the lineup lead off an inning the most frequently. Unfortunately I can’t figure out how to do it with BB-Ref, but perhaps someone more versed in the site can do so.

I would be reasonably confident in saying that the #3 hitter will lead off the least frequently and the #2 hitter will be right behind him, and that there would be a substantial climb from those two to hitters #4-9. (Obviously the #1 hitter will lead off most frequently.)

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Does Baseball-Reference allow you to search things like this...?

… or do you need a Premium subscription?

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

See above...

… I “answered” your post about ten messages up.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Getting back to the lightening...

… since I got nothing better to do…

Your argument seems to be that, because the chance of getting hit by lightening is 1-in-100,000 (I’m making that number up), you can walk out your door with impunity and expect that your odds of getting hit by lightening are always going to be 1-in-100,000.

My argument is that you should look up in the sky when you walk out your front door: if the sky is clear, your odds of getting hit by lightening are low; if the sky is dark, your odds might be slightly higher.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 2:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No, you're misunderstanding me

My point is that the odds of getting hit by lightning as you step out of your house are effectively zero and should be treated as such regardless of whether your sister died of a lightning strike five years ago.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Lightening in the area

certainly would stop me from playing golf that day.

by LoneStranger on Jan 6, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

OK

but analogizing “lightning in the area” back to the baseball situation, that’s like saying Cust is more likely to clog the bases when he’s already on second and Holliday is already on first. Yes, that is true, but it doesn’t tell you much.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand your argument...

… I think that over the course of a season, you are right that things will work out. I also think that, when you have specific circumstances presented right in front of you, the statistics will only tell you half of the information you need.

I agree with you, though, that season-long lineup positioning should not be based on what we may or may not see in the playoffs. My only point was that, come playoff time, you might want to re-construct your lineup so as to provide more flexibility…

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Mr. T

I don’t mean to be a dick (or to suggest that you’re a dick), but when you get on a message board and suggest that someone else doesn’t have an “understanding of basic statistics,” you assume that you know more than you do and that everyone else you’re dealing with his a dumbass.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Stop assuming what I'm assuming

I don’t know you from Adam, nor do I care.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 2:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Super...

… I’m not assuming what you’re assuming. You told me what you assume. No need for me to assume.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I did?

That’s odd, cause I’m not finding it.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 3:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to assume that anyone with two strikes,

who refuses to tone it down and continues to upset people, probably isn’t long for this board. Which is a shame, but everyone plays by the same rules and makes choices every time they hit “post”.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 6, 2009 5:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

ok well first of all

you completely nitpicked a situation here. but still, you’re wrong to some extent. first of all, cust is not that slow. especially when you consider the rest of the lineup doesn’t exacly possess blazing speed either, so hes not holding anyone back. on a most medium deep flyballs with cust on third, he will score. hes not that slow.

also, look at this run expectancy matrix. you will see that having cust on would be much more valuable than nobody on or if cust had gotten out, even if he does “clog up the bases”.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 6, 2009 1:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Cust is SLOW

Please provide some sort of backup for your conclusory remark that “Cust is not that slow.” See my post above — Cust grades out as having similar basepath speed to Frank Thomas and Bengie Molina. Those dudes are slooooooooooow. So, point #1 in your post is simply incorrect.

As for point #2, I am familiar with the run expectancy matrix (REM). A few things on this. First, the REM is based on historical run-scoring records based on base-out situations (in other words, it does not account for the speed of runners on base, it is simply an after-the-fact compilation of average runs scored in each situation). Therefore, the REM needs to be adjusted slightly based on the specific circumstances of each given situation. Take the example of a runner on second and two out — REM says you score .33 runs in that situation; but, if you had Bengie Molina on 2nd, your run expectancy might decrease slightly, because he’s less likely to score on a single; on the other hand, if you have Jimmy Rollins on base, your run-expectancy might increase a little because Rollins might be able to score on an infield single. I don’t think you can debate that the REM is based on averages, and that adjustments might be appropriate based on the particular circumstances at hand.

Now, if you’re willing to admit that adjustments might be appropriate given the particular circumstances, then you have to be willing to admit that the A’s run-expectancy would be lower with Jack Cust on 2nd and two out than it would with, say, Travis Buck on 2nd and two out…

I’m not saying that we’re better off witgh Jack Cust getting out than being on base (I’d have to be retarded to think that). What I am saying is that your run-expectancy is lower when Cust is on base than it is when other, faster players are on base…

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Cust beat out an infield single to win a game.

Clearly he’s a speedster. Even in the postgame interview he told the reporter that “He just let his speed take over”

by mikev on Jan 6, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Now that's funny...

Hell… Jake Taylor beat out a bunt to beat the Yankees in Major League. He, too, must be a speedster.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but the infield was back for Taylor.

by mikev on Jan 6, 2009 1:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

ok you made some great points

i dont know how much i trust the speed thing with molina and thomas. i have no evidence, but ive watched them run. i just dont see them being that similar, and i think that is something that is hard to gauge without a stopwatch.

you’re right with point number 2. however, we dont have a jimmy rollins or anyone that’s a speedster really. buck is to an extent, and i like him as our leadoff hitter, but its unclear whether hell be able to maintain a high obp and a healthy body.

so heres my point: faster players are better on base. we dont have those players. i would much much much rather have holliday trying to drive in cust than noone at all (cust is more likely to get on for him), i think we need to put as many guys on base in front of holliday regardless of speed.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 6, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with that...

… I’m not sure how much I trust the SX scores either, but it’s what I’ve got to work with.

I also agree that we don’t have any Jimmy Rollinses on our team, and that we have to get guys on base in front of Holliday if we want to maximize run-scoring (i.e., you don’t just put a guy like Joey Gathright, with his sub.-300 OBP, in front of Hollidayt because he’s fast).

But, if Travis Buck can put up a .350 OBP and Jack Cust puts up a .380 OBP (not unreasonable projections for either), you’re talking about 3 extra times on base per 20-25 games… not a lot. I’d rather have Travis’s speed on base in front of Holliday than Jack Cust’s slow ass in front of him. I may be dead wrong about this (I’m sure there’s some way to prove I am wrong), but it’s my personal preference.

Also… why not put Holliday at #2, Giambi at #3, and Cust at #4. If you want the high-OBP guys hitting early, why not put the fastest one first…

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

good points

i think holliday needs as many guys in front of him as possible. holliday is a faster high obp guy, but hes also a high average/power guy who will drive in runs. with custs lack of average, he wont drive in that many from the 4 or six spot.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 6, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

True

Holliday’s high AVG/OBP/SLG make him a better run-driver-inner than Cust’s high OBP/SLG.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

But you ARE saying that.

I’m not saying that we’re better off witgh Jack Cust getting out than being on base (I’d have to be retarded to think that).

But that’s exactly what your base-clogging example says. You presented a scenario in which we’d be better off had Cust struck out than had he walked.

If, at the start of an inning, you believe that scenario is likely to occur, then you should prefer Cust to get out rather than walk. If you don’t believe that scenario is likely to occur, then I don’t understand why you’re basing your lineup argument on something you acknowledge is less important than getting on base.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jan 6, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

I’m not really saying that — what I’m saying is that I don’t want Jack Cust batting in front of Holliday. I’d prefer someone who doesn’t negate Holliday’s speed on the bases by running at half-speed in front of him. So, I wasn’t saying that we would benefit more by Jack Cust striking out; I was saying we would benefit more by allowing someone else to hit in front of Holliday, who would not slow Holliday down as he makes his way around the bases.

That said, I think you have pointed out a huge gaping hole in my argument (namely, that Cust is just as likely to leadoff in the 5-hole as he is in the 2-hole), but allow me to respond with a question: If you had two players with eqaul OBPs, one of whom was slow and the other of whom was fast, wouldn’t you put the player with more speed in front of Holliday in order to take advantage of Holliday’s speed? And, if the answer to that question is yes, then doesn’t a player’s speed add some additional benefit that has to be factored into where you place him in the lineup?

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 2:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The best three hitters in the A's lineup are Holliday, Cust and Giambi

Those three need to fill the 1/2/4 slots in the optimal batting order. You probably want Holliday in the middle for L/R/L, but against lefthanded pitching I’d probably have Holliday lead off and slot Ellis in the #3 slot to break up the other two.

Here’s the thing— Holliday is faster than EVERY other A’s player. It’s inevitable that the guy in front of him will slow him down in a few cases if he’s on base. That’s vastly outweighed by the good things that happen when players are on base in front of Holliday, notably scoring on his home runs.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 3:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for clarifying

So your real point is just that you don’t want Cust in front of Holliday, regardless of where they are in the order.

If two guys have equal OBP and one is faster, of course I prefer the faster one. I don’t think anyone here is arguing that speed doesn’t matter at all.

Don’t forget that Cust’s OBP includes his HRs, so if you’re figuring the chance of Cust being on base in front of someone, you have to subtract the HRs. In that sense, Cust unclogs the bases, by driving all the guys in front of him in.

(So if you have Frank Thomas or Bengie Molina on the team, put them in front of Cust.)

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jan 6, 2009 3:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

That is my real point. And, at this point, I’m not sure I even agree with myself.

My gut sense is that Cust will slow Holliday down (i.e., not allow Holliday to steal bases; not allow hit-and-run calls when Holliday is at the plate), but my gut sense isn’t worth a damn if it’s wrong. I don’t deny that Cust’s OBP (which should be around 370-390) is very valuable, and that it makes sense to have guys on base in front of your best run-producers… I just feel like Cust would be better utilized behind Holliday, and Buck and/or Sweeney would be better utilized in front of Holliday.

That said, I can see Paul T’s argument that you want your top three hitters hitting in the 1-4 spots (presumably to get them as many PAs as possible). If that means Cust in front of Holliday, then so be it…

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 3:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I hadn't considered Cust as a base unclogger

But, you’re right… Cust does occasionally unclog the basepaths.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 3:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

but your run expectancy will be higher since cust will be on base more often than the speedster

that’s what this is about.

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 6, 2009 3:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Just a few simple reasons...

Cust batting second severely limits your options. You need a guy who can handle the bat better and make contact more often, have a higher batting average, and have more speed on the bases.

Cust strikes out too much. Has zero bat control. Can’t move a runner over if necessary. Can’t bunt, hit and run, or sacrifice. Plus he’ll clog up the bases because he can’t steal a base or move from first to third on a single. He’s a long shot to even make it home from second on a single. These are things tha your number 2 hitter should be able to do.

Sometimes a walk is not as good as a hit.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 8:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why do you need a guy who can do all those things rather than a guy who walks and HRs?

A walk is almost never as good as a hit. It is almost as good as a hit when Holliday’s the next hitter.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 8:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Holliday should NOT be hitting #3

He should be hitting #4. The best hitter should hit #4.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Jan 5, 2009 10:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

Best hitter should hit #3… if for no other reason than to get him more ABs.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 12:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

By that logic the best hitter would be hitting #1.

by Rocktopus on Jan 6, 2009 2:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Best slugger at #3, best overall hitter at #1.

At least, that’s how I play it on my teams at simyard.com.

by LoneStranger on Jan 6, 2009 9:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Everything you say makes sense until you get to

“These are things tha your number 2 hitter should be able to do.” More than he should be able to not get out better than anyone else?

And as for “Sometimes a walk is not as good as a hit,” I agree. But a walk is as good as a hit when you’re batting #2 more often than it is when you’re batting #5 or #6.

Where I think you’re going astray is that you’re imagining that the leadoff hitter gets on a lot. He doesn’t. Even if he’s good, he still “doesn’t get on” about 65% of the time. Your #2 hitter will often be batting to start rallies, not continue them. And Cust is especially bad at finishing them, because for all his attributes he is a .240 hitter.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It boils down to speed and power.

I see him as a base clogger when he walks. Would rather see a high obp guy with less power and more speed at the top of the order and let the power guy (Cust) knock the speedy guys in.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 8:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

name another high obp guy on this team that's even close to cust, and holliday

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 8:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure exactly what you mean

by “even close to Cust and Holliday” but as far as what I think a number 2 hitter should be able to do – I like Sweeney in that spot. I like Holliday and Cust knocking him in.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 8:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

he has avg obp

not really acceptable for a 2 hitter

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 8:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He has all the tools and is only going to get better. He's our best option there.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 8:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

can you explain to me what exactly a base clogger is?

i dont understand how you could possibly clog a base path.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 8:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

C'mon man. If you don't nderstand that than I can't help you.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 8:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

in all seriousness

it doesnt make any sense. what clogging up the basepaths means to me: a player is so slow that the doubles and triples hitters behind him (and basestealers as well) are being held up by his super slow speed. this does not happen (especially on the a’s). do you really think that cust getting on base would hurt the team because he is “clogging the bases”?

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 8:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Cust is not actually that slow

He’s not fast but he’s not slow. Giambi is slow, contintental drift slower, Frank Thomas even slower.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:43 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

helping my point even more

and i dont think cust is slow at all. but i just want to understand this notion of clogging the bases. maybe ive read fjm too much. but i just dont see anyway in which getting on base could be construed as bad.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Custs power in the 5 spot trumps his obp in the 2 spot.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 8:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

no it doesn't

there is enough data out there to prove that. OBP trumps all. Moving the runner over, not being a base clogger (that is dusty baker talk, folks), and bat control are all overrate nonsense that we have been told since we first learned about baseball. They are up there with flat earth theories.

I would rather have the slowest man in baseball bat leadoff if his OBP was clearly the highest on the team than I would have a fast guy who made outs 69% of the time.

More Rajai Davis & less mount Davis

by Athletics fan and runner on Jan 5, 2009 9:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Runner on third, one out.

A guy who can at least get get the bat on the ball hits a an infield grounder to the right side – the runner on third scores most of the time. Cust doesn’t get the bat on the ball enough to get that guy home.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 9:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yes!

and how many times would a 2 hitter come up with a guy on third and noone out?

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 9:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

42.

by green star oakland on Jan 5, 2009 11:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

right

hence batting him second were his walks will be as good as hits more often than not makes a lot of sense.
How often does the 2nd hitter come up with a runner on third and one out?

More Rajai Davis & less mount Davis

by Athletics fan and runner on Jan 5, 2009 9:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Somewhat ironic you'd pick this situation,

since a walk is pretty effective when there’s a runner at third and one out. Often the runner at third scores anyway on the next play, and the walk may as well have been with the bases empty.

The vast majority of “walks <<< hits” situations come with two outs, especially two outs and RISP. But of course, those situations aren’t good for your slap-hitting weaklings either.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 9:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

not necessarily

a walk takes away the hitters ability to drive in the run by hitting a gb to the right side. and in no way do i mean the walk is bad. im just nitpicking situations.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 9:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not if Giambi is playing 1B

Zing!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 9:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Two things:

a. They can always create that situation with an intentional walk anyway, if they’re dumb enough to do so, and

Many ground balls with one out score a run.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 9:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Reason # 09401273487 why SBN 3.0 auto-formatting is the worst idea ever

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 9:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What's oddest of all is how the reason

starts with the digit “0”.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 9:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a placeholder because there will be at least 598726513 more.

by LoneStranger on Jan 6, 2009 9:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

like i said im nitpicking certain (and rare) situations

but a gb can result in a double play with a runner on first (and often does with the a’s). id like to add once again, that i am not an idiot and would abso-freaking-lutely take the walk.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Especially if Holliday were on deck,

and not your #7 hitter.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 9:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Those situations are actually pretty good

for Sweeney, I would think, which is why I kind of like him 6th/7th, at the end of the take and rake fest.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 9:29 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

You're off a bit there.

A walk with one out and a runner on third is not very effective, especially if it’s Cust who walked. Do you remember the billion times last year the A’s hit into a double play in that situation and the runner on third never scored? I sure do.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 9:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What if Cust walks to put runners at first and third

with one out and the batter is….MATT HOLLIDAY? See why you want Cust batting 2nd and not 5th or 6th?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 9:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Very nice but you're assuming Bobby Crosby got on and is standing on third when Cust comes up in the 2 spot with one out..

That’s a longshot. I guess Buck could’ve triple. Again a longshot.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 9:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

id say buck could a threat to triple

but he might hurt himself in the process

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 9:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So your argument is based on inventing reality

to fit your preconceived notions. I guess that makes it really easy to convince yourself, but you’re not doing a good job of convincing me.

Turns out, the A’s as a team hit for an .882 OPS (and a batting average of .336) last year with a runner at third and less than two outs. BB-Ref doesn’t split that out to situations where there was also a runner on first, but it sure doesn’t fit your preconceived notion of a bunch of choke artists, now does it.

It never ceases to amaze me how many people say obviously, provably wrong things that can be exploded with five seconds of research on baseball-reference.com. It’s the consistency of it that gets me. You’d figure someone, at some point, would just get lucky and happen to hit a split stat that randomly favors their argument— but it hasn’t happened yet, that I can remember.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 9:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My argument is based on simple baseball reason.

Cust’s skills are better used in a power spot of 5 or 6. It’s too limiting to have him at number 2. I don’t think there is a manager in the league that would bat him second. We’ll see what happens. Maybe he bats second and excels – I wouldn’t be disappointed.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 9:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The fact that no MLB manager is willing to do something

is an excellent argument for doing that very same something.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 9:54 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

i could be wrong here

but i thought manny acta knew what he was doing. 1/30 aint bad, right?

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 9:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They're all much much smarter baseball men than you can ever hope to be.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 9:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't insult people

Make an argument that doesn’t just repeat “30 HR guys should bat 5th, not 2nd” because that’s already been refuted with specific reasons why that needn’t apply to Cust’s profile.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 9:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

When pushed by snide PT comments I can push back.

What I said was true.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 10:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually you can't

Two wrongs maketh not a right. Blog at your own risk – and please, always wear a condom while blogging.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 10:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I have two condoms on

in case one breaks

by Trainman on Jan 5, 2009 10:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

what if it breaks the other one?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 10:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Might be a sticky situation

in more ways than one

by Trainman on Jan 5, 2009 10:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wrap my rascal two times.

Because I like it to be joyless and without sensation, as a way of punishing supermodels.

99 MPH with as much control as a deflating balloon - CurveballKing on H-Rod

by Scottbass on Jan 6, 2009 12:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

they were so smart that a guy named bill james who was never a "baseball man"

proved all of them wrong and changed the game

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 9:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but he was a Communist.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 11:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, please.

Half of AN would make better tactical decisions than most MLB managers.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 11:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

For sure not.

by jdub69 on Jan 6, 2009 9:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

jdub69, your argument is in the face of

baseball reason, because you’re ignoring all the reason being offered. Address those if you want to appeal to baseball reason. 30+ HRs = “should bat 5th” isn’t reason.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 9:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not ignoring them. I've considered them.

I disagree with where Cust is better used. After all is said and done it boggles this persons mind to think anyone would bat Cust second.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 9:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Just FYI, Dwayne Murphy's lifetime stats

were .246/.356.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 10:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What were Sandberg's and Mattingly's?

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 10:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Those two weren't that comparable

Sandberg didn’t walk that much and Mattingly hit for a high average.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 10:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I could see him batting 2nd, 5th or 6th

I would puke if he bats 3rd or 4th short of half the team being injured.

One thing most can agree with is the guy is not a 3 or 4 hitter.

by Trainman on Jan 5, 2009 10:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

well put

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 10:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sample bias:

You only check BR when someone says something that seems wrong. People do sometimes accidentally make up a stat that is accurate, but in those cases it seems right to you so you aren’t inspired to check it on BR to confirm.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jan 6, 2009 12:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think so

I know what you’re talking about, but this usually comes up when we’re talking about random split stats which could, for all I know, bear no relationship whatsoever to a team’s overall hitting line. Like hitting with a runner on third and less than 2 outs. For all I knew when I looked it up, the A’s actually COULD have sucked in that situation.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 12:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

Frank Thomas as a leadoff hitter? Good idea.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 12:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well then...

… guess it’s not worth discussing since you are convinced that your theories are the truth. Funny that someone who so readily disposes of other theories (e.g., that bat control and moving runners over are important) would cling so tightly to his lab-tested data showing that OBP trumps all.

Look, I agree with you that OBP is the leading indicator of run-scoring ability. Now, I think you need to consider that OBP being the lead-indicator does not mean that teams should just stack their lineups from high-OBP to low-OBP. Lineup construction, while not as important as the underlying skills of the players in the lineup, does impact a team’s run-scoring ability.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 11:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

so long as you don't build your lineup with low-OBP to high-OBP, it's mostly irrelevant

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ahh...

… nice qualifier. “Mostly” irrelevant.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

oh, it has some effect ... at the margins

Best thing to do is … get a bunch of good hitters. And put the least-good ones in the 6-9 slots.

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 12:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree with that...

… best thing to do, if you want to score runs, is get good hitters. High OBP guys are preferable. High SLG guys are second-most preferable.

Even the best lineup construction in the world can’t make up for a lack of OBP and SLG.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 12:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

COMITY!

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 12:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You got a point there.

I wouldn’t want to see Thomas or Giambi in the 2 spot either.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

and youve got a point with cust in the 5 spot

but i think that we need as many guys on base for holliday. no matter where on base or how fast. he is the most productive hitter and will drive in runs if given the opportunity

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 8:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Custs power in the 5 spot trumps his obp in the 2 spot.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 8:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He HRed 33 times and walked 111 times

In other words, he HRs once every five games and walks twice every three games.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Nah

by thejd44 on Jan 5, 2009 11:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Base clogger.

by LoneStranger on Jan 6, 2009 9:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No, that's a FACE clogger.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 12:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

TWSS

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 12:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well jdub69, just keep in mind that in the 567 plate appearances or so

where Cust doesn’t HR, he hits .174.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So not exactly a good bet to "knock the speedy guys in."

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's hope he improves on that. Maybe he sees better pitches with the improved lineup.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 8:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Only if he's batting ahead of good hitters,

not if he’s at the end of the string of good hitters. Your own hope about the possible benefit of “protection” argues for hitting Cust 2nd, not 5th or 6th.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Chavez, Suzuki and Ellis behind Cust.

These guys can hit.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 8:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Unlike Holliday and Giambi

Good point. UNICORN POWER!!!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Holliday and Giambi ahead of Cust.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 8:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh well then, ok

Not a basis for a lineup decision, but a perfectly reasonable thing to feel.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Call me conventional but I think it'd be best for the team.

I’d be shocked to see Geren bat Cust second even once during the season but I’ve seen crazier things.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 8:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You mean like Dwayne Murphy, Ryne Sandberg, and

Don Mattingly batting second?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 8:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Those were guys who could get the bat on the ball with regularity.

Cust is not that guy.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 9:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

wouldn't you want your cleanup hitters to put the bat on the ball more?

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 9:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, and hit doubles and homers.

The guy who can’t hit the homers is best used in the 2 spot.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 9:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yes, but his obp trumps his power by a long shot

111 walks compared to 33 hrs. the fact that cust has so many strikeouts and has such a low average makes him terrible in the number 3-5 spot. hes not likely to drive in runs because his low average. the fact that he only had 77 rbi’s last year with 33 hr isnt just indicative of a lineup that failed to get on base, but also the lack of base hits provided by cust.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 9:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Take a deep breath...

Put your emotions aside and think critically here. Now ask yourself – would Cust be better used in the two spot as a run scorer or in the five or six spot as an RBI guy? Common sense says RBI guy every time.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 9:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

and thats why man invented math and science

to trump what might seem like common sense

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 9:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

im plenty calm

i apologize if my responses seem angry or anything bad. they arent meant to be. i simply disagree with your point.

common sense tells me that cust is not an RBI guy. cust batted in the rbi spot lats year because, well if not him, then DFA would be there or someone terrible.

here’s my point: obviously, you knock guys in by getting hits. cust does not do this well. he does hit home runs, which makes him appealing for the rbi spot (i agree with you there), but his average and hits are so rare he is not going to get rbi’s other than from hr.

his obp is very very valuable and would provide holliday/others the chance to knock him in. in the number 2 spot in the order, his inability to make contact/get base hits will be nullified by his obp, wheras cust in the 5 of 6 spot would hurt the team because of this.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 9:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough.

We’ll agree to disagree. Go A’s!

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 9:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, let me put my emotions aside

and think critically…

Definitely better #2 than #5 or #6.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 9:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Laughs

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 9:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Belches

’Scuse me.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 9:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

to score runs

one has to get on base.
Cust does that very well.
It does not matter if one walks, gets a hit, or sticks his elbow into a pitch in order to get on base. You want your best guys at getting on base infront of your best hitters. Cust, at number 2, in front of Holliday, does this.

All of your arguments rely upon unquestionably referring to conventional wisdom. Read some bill james, work your way up to baseball prospectus, visit www.fangraphs.com, and throw away ‘base clogging’ from your lexicon. That would help you out.

More Rajai Davis & less mount Davis

by Athletics fan and runner on Jan 5, 2009 10:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What are you're deep thoughts on Cust leading off then?

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 10:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I mean "your" deep thoughts, sorry

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 10:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

well

I thought that you were saying that I am deep. And that I have thoughts.

and stuff.

More Rajai Davis & less mount Davis

by Athletics fan and runner on Jan 5, 2009 10:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

well

I would like to take some advantage of his home run power and bat him 2nd with somebody in front of him.
Then again, I would rather he bat leadoff than I would he bat 6th were he might walk to bring up crosby.

Brian Downing. Not quiet like Cust but close enough for this argument. He lead off without having traditional leadoff hitter skills. Basically, he was good (not as good as cust is, mind you) at getting on base. That is the most important thing for a “run scorer”.

More Rajai Davis & less mount Davis

by Athletics fan and runner on Jan 5, 2009 10:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Got it. I'll try to think of Cust as a run scorer and not an RBI guy from here on out.

by jdub69 on Jan 5, 2009 10:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

well,

try to think of him as a guy who is really good at getting on base and hits a lot of homers. That is what he is. The run scorer and RBI guy titles just confuse things.

More Rajai Davis & less mount Davis

by Athletics fan and runner on Jan 5, 2009 10:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

i think what you have to consider is

this is not a lineup/team/organization that is looking for the prototypical number 2 hitter to do the little things with the bat (bunt, move the runners over). all that matters is the number 2 guy gets on base so guys like holliday can drive them in. getting the bat on the ball is nice, but gettting on base nearly 40% of the time is much much nicer.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 9:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Joe?

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

batting jack cust 2nd is an excellent idea

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I like it, I like it.

Although I do see a little room for improvement ~ and we all now what position that would be.

20 wins in a row! Will it ever happen again?

by Johnny U on Jan 5, 2009 6:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Doggy style!!!!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 6:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hahaha.

If it’s Furcal diving to his right, more like missionary.

20 wins in a row! Will it ever happen again?

by Johnny U on Jan 5, 2009 6:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If Furcal takes my advice,

he won’t need another person in order to enjoy either position.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, that was hilarious.

by mikev on Jan 5, 2009 7:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I smiled at that

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Jan 5, 2009 7:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

woo woo!

by mrod on Jan 5, 2009 6:40 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for my new signature Nico.

It humors me.

[The reason] Giambi hurts a team defensively is that he has the range of a sedated sea turtle who is trapped on land under Joe Blanton, only not quite as good. -Nico

by Morgasm on Jan 5, 2009 6:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I loved it too!

I laughed out loud.

39 remarkable innings.

by ZigFan31 on Jan 5, 2009 10:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

cool. just tuned into Rancho Deluxe

classic cult movie whilst dialing up AN to read the Giambi thread. “Baseheart of Bozeman Canyon” speaks to me of Giambi in his prime….which is not now.

alaska A residing in colorado.

by ak_A on Jan 5, 2009 7:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Rather than doing all that, I'd rather just leave people where they are and live with

Giambi’s smaller range

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 7:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Why? Why give up balls hit 2-3 steps to the right of the 1Bman

if you don’t have to? Better to keep Ellis fielding balls to his left and SS taking the balls up the middle anyway.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 7:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Because if they fielders are optimally positioned wrt scouting reports then having a crappy defender

at 1B doesn’t change the equation in most cases. Even if the hitter frequently hits the ball toward the 2B/1B hole, then you move Ellis there even with a good defender at 1B.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 8:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

line-up

I’d rather have sweeney and suzuki getting more at bats at the top rather than buck, who is more mentally fragile. Do you think we need Buck’s speed up top, Nico? A prototypical second place hitter makes a whole lot more contact than cust does…

Who writes the line-up, Beane or Geren?

by greenpaddedgloves on Jan 5, 2009 7:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I like Buck leading off because he does draw walks

and he adds a true base-stealing and “speed on the bases” element. If he isn’t giving you a .350+ OBP he should probably be in Sacramento and you can lead off with Sweeney or Cunningham.

I want Cust batting ahead of the RBI guys, so if he didn’t bat 2nd I’d bat him 3rd (after, say, Buck and Sweeney). But I’d sooner see Sweeney and Suzuki, with their good BA and “ok” OBP, in more RBI situations and see Cust, with his great OBP, batting ahead of Holliday, Giambi, and Chavez.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 7:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I really like Cust hitting 2nd

www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.

by ChadGod on Jan 5, 2009 7:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree Buck is physically fragile, but why do you think he's "mentally fragile"?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 8:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

if i remember correctly there were reports of his lack of production having to do with his lack of confidence

also he had 2? concussions, so his brain isnt in the best shape. (sarcasm)

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 8:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey! People who have had concussions

are perfectly abl4 dk2hink we999922l.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Nico,

I think this thread is typical “Billy Beane Kool Aid Apology Aid” or something. I can’t fathom why the A’s didn’t just sign Burrel for what Tampa Bay got him for, he’s right handed, is highly likely to outperform Giambi over the next two years, and it doesn’t hold back the development of Barton.

They're called RUNS for a reason.

by connie mack on Jan 5, 2009 7:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I don't remember that flavor from when I was little

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Jan 5, 2009 7:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't you remember the commercials?

Where the Kool-Aid Man burst through a wall by throwing a chair through it?

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 7:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hell yeah

I think the key is everyone looking surprised but excited when the courtroom wall explodes, and a giant pitcher of Kool-Aid is there, but then everyone yelling out “Punchy!” The fact that everyone knows and loves him is the clincher.

by el generico on Jan 6, 2009 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You assume players prefer to play in Oakland...

you don’t know that BB didn’t make the same offer, difference being that TB played in the WS last year and are perrenial contenders. A’s aren’t there yet

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Jan 5, 2009 7:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the heckler made the difference

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 7:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Burrell specifically cited

chances of returning to the WS again soon as a key factor in his choice. Direct quote from PB, in almost every news story:

“Coming into free agency, the thing that was most important to me was to go somewhere I thought had as good a chance or better to repeat and go back to the World Series, or at least get into the playoffs.”

:

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jan 5, 2009 8:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Was he impressed with the area schools as well?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 8:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess better than his alma mater

BTW…I heard from reliable sources who knew him in HS and at UCLA and he is supposed to be a grade A prick

"I was right and you were wrong." - Ray Fosse

by kbtoyz on Jan 5, 2009 8:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Does that mean Tampa Bay gets two draft pricks when he leaves?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

QOTM

"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau

by King Richard on Jan 6, 2009 2:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

but he’s actually a Type A prick

by scatterbrian on Jan 6, 2009 9:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Burrell go to Miami?

I thought I remember him in the CWS…

The Stockton Ports pitching staff is better than the Orioles.

by gdub171 on Jan 6, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

he did

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Jan 6, 2009 11:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

CWS Miami?

by scatterbrian on Jan 6, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, the A's totally need to knock the Rays out of the ALDS in 2009

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I like that plan!

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jan 6, 2009 12:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They're perrenial contenders? Really?

Last year was the FIRST TIME they have been in the playoffs, EVER.

by mikev on Jan 5, 2009 10:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's actually the first time they didn't lose 90 games, right?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 10:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Whatever. They're perrenial contenders.

by mikev on Jan 5, 2009 10:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't that "perineal" ?

by green star oakland on Jan 5, 2009 10:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Perinatal, more like

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 11:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The Blue Jays still have Frasor, right?

That would make them perigilpin contenders.

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 7:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

T'aint so!

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jan 6, 2009 8:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The thread doesn't even defend Beane or the signing,

it just speculates on a way the A’s might feel they can minimize the defensive liability (while getting the hitting they are paying for). The whole “Kool Aid” thing is, IMO, just BS spewed by people who don’t agree with a point. If you read the site, you know I am sometimes highly critical of Beane et al, as well as sometimes praising.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 7:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Could you at least put a question mark or two

in the title? No one does that anymore..

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Jan 5, 2009 7:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure. I'll put one after "For"

and another one between the “m” and “b” in “Giambi”.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 7:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

but-but nico, that's connie mac!

alaska A residing in colorado.

by ak_A on Jan 5, 2009 7:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

fair enough,

I’m feeling pretty pissed off at the A’s this off season particularly, especially after the rule 5 bullshit. and the (to me) totally inexplicable offer to Rafael Furcal’s chiropractor. And now this bullshit with Giambi when Dunn is available or the money could be used to extend guys like Suzuki and Cust. you know healthy guys that still have some years left in their prime. I rant.
Frankly, I’m finding the Niners way more intellectually and emotionally interesting right now.

They're called RUNS for a reason.

by connie mack on Jan 5, 2009 11:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I see the lineup like this

Buck
Ellis
Cust
Holliday
Giambi
Chavez
Suzuki
Sweeney
Crosby

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Jan 5, 2009 7:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

That makes sense against LHP

Against RHP, Ellis’ OBP doesn’t justify him batting high in the order.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 7:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah this is a great lineup against LHP although I would go something like this:

Versus LHP:

Ellis
Cust
Holliday
Giambi
Chavez
Cunningham
Suzuki
Sweeney
Crosby

Versus RHP:

Buck
Cust
Holliday
Giambi
Chavez
Sweeney
Suzuki
Ellis
Crosby

Cunningham/Buck Platoon ftw

www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.

by ChadGod on Jan 5, 2009 8:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt they're using Cunningham like a Kielty replacement. He's gonna play every day either in Oak or AAA

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 8:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Until Chavvy proves he's healthy

do you really want him batting 5th?

"I was right and you were wrong." - Ray Fosse

by kbtoyz on Jan 5, 2009 8:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I do -

a. His presence has always scared pitchers – even when he couldn’t hit he was walking at a remarkable clip

What are the odds, if he is able to play, that he’ll slug worse than Sweeney, Suzuki, Ellis? It’s possible, but I’d say it’s pretty unlikely. And if he really looks like a shell of himself, like he did a couple years ago, you can always slide him down in the order.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Imagine a "b" followed by text that isn't in bold

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:27 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

remember "whiteout" for typing mistakes??

Ok, I think a majority here don’t have any idea what I am talking about.

We take so much for granted today that a few short years ago were unimaginable.

Officially awaiting the 2009 season.

by One won lost won on Jan 5, 2009 10:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Remember "preview"?

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jan 6, 2009 12:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

I do now. But that was then, this is now.

Officially awaiting the 2009 season.

by One won lost won on Jan 6, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll agree with Nico.

Since Cust will get on base with all those walks that he can get.

Eventually though I would like to see a few changes in the line-up, like somebody else who hits for a little better average in the two spot.

That way Cust can get his three run homer’s.

Steve Sage

by SSathletics on Jan 5, 2009 7:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I was always under the impression...

that coventional wisdom preferred low K hitters in the 2 spot – as we know Cust doesn’t fit that mold

"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane

by athleticsBB4life on Jan 5, 2009 7:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It depends how you're trying to score runs

If you’re trying to manufacture runs one at a time (because maybe that’s what your team can hope to do), then yes. If you’re trying to put up crooked numbers, maybe scoring less often but more runs when you do score at all (because maybe that’s what your team can hope to do), then batting a high OBP guy second regardless of his BA or Ks might make more sense.

The lineups I’m proposing play more Earl Weaver / take and rake ball 1-6 and more “manufacture/create/small ball” 7-9.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:11 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I never understood why this wasn't always conventional wisdom

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 8:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, because conventional wisdom is ridiculous hokum from the 1910s

If your first hitter is a conventional leadoff guy, a Luis Castillo type with high OBP but low power, you WANT a hitter who strikes out a lot hitting second. Strikeouts are better than other outs when there’s a runner on first and less than two outs.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 9:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You mean better than force plays and DPs but the same as FB assuming the same number of pitches?

And better than other outs on fewer pitches?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 10:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think "Conventional Wisdom"

sometimes gets a bad rap, particularly on this site. A lot of CW is nothing more than managers using the pieces they are dealt in roles that best benefit their particular gathering of talent at the time. When they explained the process they used to formulate their lineup to the press, it became “conventional wisdom”. The same manager may well have formulated another plan of attack if he had other players with different skill sets available.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jan 6, 2009 8:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I was gonna write a fanpost on this but I got distracted

let’s look at Giambi’s proposed offensive lines:

BJ: .244/.388/.484/.873
.263 BABIP
.385 wOBA

CHONE: 0.239/0.385/0.475/.860
.253 BABIP
.389 wOBA

CAIRO: .239/.366/.459/.825
.258 BABIP
.361 wOBA

Marcel: .239/.363/.467/.829
.259 BABIP
.359 wOBA

Statistically Speaking (MVN): .260/.385/.495/.880
.380 wOBA

Neither ZIPS nor Ron Shandler have published their projections of Giambi yet. However 5 systems have projected Giambi and they came up with an average OPS of .853 OPS and average .375 wOBA (though I manually caculated some of the wOBA’s based on certain projection system’s numbers so they may not be exact). Using the same five projections plus ZiPS, Barton was projected at an average .734 OPS. That’s a difference of .119 OPS points. Now I’m not sure which numbers have been park adjusted, so let’s be generous, and say the true difference is .100 (again the laziness stopped me from calculating wOBAs for Barton though the ones that calculate it are all around .330). That’s still a 20 run difference. Or about 2 wins. Barton needs to be two wins better in the field to make up the difference.

Giambi hasn’t played 1b full time for a while, but his last 3 years have had UZR/150 of negative 22.3, positive 11.2, negative 2.5 (the last was in the year he played the most). He’ll probably be around between 5 to 10 runs below zero in 2009. Barton hasn’t had enough time to prove his true defensive value (it takes about three years) and his scouting reports indicated bad defense. However he passes the eye test (Giambi doesn’t) and posted a UZR/150 of 6.8 and 7.1 (in limited time in ’07). UZR says the difference is around 10 to 15 runs between the two or 1.5 wins. CHONE similarly projects Giambi as -8 and Barton as +4 or 1.2 win difference.

Overall, I’d say Giambi represents a half win to full win upgrade on Barton, plus an extra year of development time for Barton. And I like seeing good offense more than above average defense from a 1b (especially after ’08), so I like the move.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Jan 5, 2009 8:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Uh, if Giambi is only half win to full win upgrade

then it’s not worth it.

"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 5, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

depnds on the price

and a point i never see argued is that adding giambi adds depth. We’ve had issues with health, it’s always good to have depth. If giambi goes down, we have Barton waiting(and hopefully mashing) in AAA.

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 8:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The numbers quoted above by vignette17 are impressive.

If he does get signed it would be great to see at the end of the season if they prove correct. Yet, it’s hard to imagine Giambi only adding one game. After all, he did hit 96 RBI last season. Yes he won’t have great D but maybe he brings something extra in chemistry that, say, Burrel would not. There’s history to consider here, between G and the local populace. I have a growing feeling that even though hardcore A’s fans still feel betrayed by him (I know I did), this guy is still a very decent hitter, and could have an impact. About a third of all MLB was on juice back then (maybe more), so I’m over the steroid thing, because it seems under control now. Giambi can still flat-out hit— we saw him do too many amazing things back when he was here for some of us not to believe that— so maybe he can come back, let us forgive him, grow his hair and beard back and start raking for Oakland.

by oaklidiot on Jan 5, 2009 11:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm also "over the steroid" thing,

mainly because I’m not going to indulge in hypocrisy of that magnitude. I was around in the nineties and eighties, and I damn well knew that these guys were using a little something extra in their wheaties. I didn’t care all that much then and I sure as hell don’t recall a lot of other people being up in arms about it either. I also don’t feel that players who juiced cheated me out of damn thing. Quite the opposite actually. These dudes ingested chemicals in their bodies and hit the iron pile like madmen. Why? To perform at the highest level possible. They were trying to play baseball at the highest level possible, health consequences be damned, for my entertainment. They are going to pay a heavy price for their deeds, but I’m sure as not going to appoint myself the role of executioner, especially since I relished their feats at the time. I still do. I also realize they had a profit motive too. That’s fine by me, if you want to impress me, find me someone who doesn’t.

So if Jason signs with the A’s, I’ll be right there in the Coli cheering him on just like before. As far as I’m concerned, he (or any other player who may have juiced) doesn’t owe me a damn thing, especially an “apology”.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jan 6, 2009 8:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Lineup

Cust
Holliday
Giambi
Chavez
Suzuki
Buck
Ellis
Sweeney
Crosby

That’s how I’d do it.

"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 5, 2009 8:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Just curious - in that lineup, what's the hesitation

to just put Sweeney at the beginning of that and run the rest as is (sans Sweeney, obviously)? Or Buck, if you prefer – whomever you think will post the higher OBP.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah...but don't put crosby right in front of Cust, put sweeney or ellis there

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 8:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Of course then you'd be in the position of giving more at bats to Crosby

Personally, I’m in favor of placing Crosby in the spot where he’d get as few at bats as possible.

Or we could just sign Furcal to replace him…Oh wait.

"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 5, 2009 8:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

moving crosby up 1 more in the order doesn't give him significantly more at bats

and is offset by how many more people will be on base in front of cust and holliday

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 8:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's like batting the pitcher 8th.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

and i’ve read numerous places that you want your worst hitter 8th, and someone with strong obp 9th

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 9:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

That’s only true if your 8th hitter is pitcher-bad. Since there aren’t really any MLB position player regulars who hit that poorly (we’re talking like sub-400 OPS here), you want the worst hitter hitting 9th.

Don’t ask me to run the calculations for you, because I can’t. Just read “The Book.”

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 9:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This surprises me, since the additional ABs gotten from batting a spot higher

can be offset in high leverage situations by PH. I’m not arguing with The Book though.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 10:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's really hard to get any use out of pinch hitters for non-pitchers

If the guy isn’t good enough to start, odds are he won’t be better enough than the guy he’s replacing to a. make up for the pinch hitter penalty, which is really an even more severe (and universal) version of the DH penalty, and b. make up for the loss of the other player for the rest of the game.

There are some exceptions, notably when a starter is taking a game off but is available late in the game, but by and large PHing is not a useful tactic in the AL.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 11:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I've got "The Book" (Tango, Lichtman, Dolphin)

and I have some objections to the philosophies in some portions. On the whole, it is very interesting and well-researched.

Baseball is a very mental game, and although they pay lip-service to that factor, I do not believe they have translated mental factors into some sort of “tangible”. Nor is travel and schedule and the effect on players. Perhaps that is the next area for statistics to be refined.

Officially awaiting the 2009 season.

by One won lost won on Jan 5, 2009 10:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I like their lineup construction section

Their section on clutch hitting is awful. Their methods are very flawed.

Mostly, though, it’s a tremendous book.

by thejd44 on Jan 5, 2009 11:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think baseball is a very mental game at all

Certainly not by comparison to just about any other team sport I can think of.

See ball, hit ball. Hitters, at least, don’t have time to think— it’s all guesswork, educated to varying degrees.

Most of what people think of as “mental”, viz slumps, hot streaks, etc, is fiction invented by the human mind out of random noise.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 5, 2009 11:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, incredible statement.

Baseball is a very mental game. To the point where every pitch means something different. Dick Williams, Billy Martin, and Tony LaRussa surely disagree with you.

by jdub69 on Jan 6, 2009 7:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You're really starting to irritate me by disagreeing with everything I say

without offering anything other than appeals to authority to justify it.

I’m not going to respond to any more of your posts. Not worth my time.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 12:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yes it is.

:X

by mikev on Jan 6, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't say that I disagree...

it’s more that I’m shocked and horrified by the incredibly juvenile statement “I don’t think baseball is a very mental game at all”.

by jdub69 on Jan 6, 2009 2:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Did you play very much

baseball Paul? It’s by far the most “metal” game of all team sports. “See ball, Hit ball” is all well and good…..if you can. The guy throwing the ball is going to have something to say about that. He’s going to study you like a book, he’s going to probe for any weakness to exploit, he’s going to try and intimidate you with the ball, in short, he’s going to work you every way he can. It really doesn’t get much more mental than that. At least in sports.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jan 6, 2009 8:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No kidding.

Talk about a credibility buster. A more ignorant baseball statement probably can not be made (“I don’t think baseball is a very mental game at all. Certainly not by comparison to just about any other team sport I can think of”). Ouch.

by jdub69 on Jan 6, 2009 9:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

does that make MLB the most "wooden" of all the major professional team sport leagues?

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're vastly overestimating the scholarly nature of most professional baseball players

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 10:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably so...

but even the most dense will recognize the message of a 95 MPH baseball planted in ones ribs.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jan 6, 2009 10:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

... and I think that bolsters PT's argument, not yours

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 10:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Mensa student or not...

you still got to figure out if you can hit it or if it’s going to hit you. These things are better to know before the ball actually leaves his hand. Problem being….you can never really know. Maybe it’s more of a philosophical game after all?

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jan 6, 2009 11:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

mensa is a word for dummy

"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King

by Buck Turgidson on Jan 6, 2009 11:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It works either way.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jan 6, 2009 11:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Do you agree then that baseball is not a very mental game at all?

by jdub69 on Jan 6, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yes

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 11:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Uhh...

… somebody better tell Rick Peterson and Greg Maddux.

by Uncle Charlie on Jan 6, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

doesn't mean that the game isn't susceptible to reason

But the sharpest mental tool in the shed can’t make up for what Ba’al gave to a kid who has the eyesight and hand-eye coordination to recognize the spin on a pitch and hit it with a stick.

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Baseball is actually more like an “anti-mental” game, in which NOT thinking, and NOT feeling emotional highs and lows, is the best way to do well.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Those who argue baseball doesn't have a significant mental element

always have one thing in common: They never played and they haven’t spent years around professional baseball players and coaches.

Anyone who has is almost guaranteed to realize how important the mental side of the game is, and how often the difference between a successful and unsuccessful player has to do with factors other than physical tools and health.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 6, 2009 1:41 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I'm not talking about preconscious ramblings

from the hypothalamus when I call a game “mental.”

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 1:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice try

by jdub69 on Jan 6, 2009 3:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What I'm talking about is

“Do you feel confident challenging hitters with the same pitch that just got hit hard?”

“How do you respond to being in a slump?”

“How successfully do you block out personal distractions like your marital problems, your bad relationship with the manager, or your impending free agency?”

“Can you focus at 100% intensity during a ‘meaningless at bat’?”

“Are you rattled by a bad call the rest of the inning?”

All those have a highly mental component, but are resolved with the physical act of throwing or hitting a baseball.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 6, 2009 5:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

True

A's Fan in Philly

by Duby on Jan 6, 2009 5:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's not forget here

that the mental game includes basic strategies as well as thousands of different scenarios that effect baserunners and fielders (in addition to, but not limited to, the previously mentioned pitchers and hitters).

A tiny sample: when to hit the cutoff man, when to play the infield in, when to play infield back, when to hold the runner on, when to cover a bag, when and where to back up a throw, when to play the outfield back or in, when to (or not to) tag-up, when to slide, when to take a guy out, when to stretch out an extra base on a hit, when to pitch-out, and on and on and on.

These things all change from pitch to pitch. The mental game is obviously a huge part of baseball. When two teams are matched equally in physical talent it’s usually the team that plays a sound mental game that wins.

by jdub69 on Jan 6, 2009 6:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

When two teams are matched equally in physical talent,

99% of the time it’s the luckier team that wins.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 7:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Again,

spoken like a guy who has no clue.

by jdub69 on Jan 6, 2009 7:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think our respective credibility speaks for itself

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 7, 2009 4:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

99% of the time

the luckier team wins? That’s a pretty monsterous number. What stat book did you draw that from?

Games and series are usually won with skill, execution, and strategy. Luck sometimes comes into play but no where near the flippant number you’re throwing out.

by jdub69 on Jan 7, 2009 6:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

All of these have (usually much more intricate)

analogues in other sports. Every player— hell, every person— has to block out personal distractions at work. And so on down the line— there are a LOT more bad calls in basketball or football, players and coaches in those sports often have to execute plays that have been successfully stopped before, etc etc.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 7:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I never said those sports didn't have

a big mental aspect too. I agree that they do. I’m just saying that when they talk about Tim Hudson having a “bulldog mentality,” there really IS something to that. It’s not enough in and of itself, but it’s an important part of what makes him special compared to other pitchers who have had very good stuff and command but could not match his success.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 6, 2009 7:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Unbelievable but well noted.

by jdub69 on Jan 6, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Um

Have you SEEN the offenses college and even high school football teams are running right now? A playbook of 200 plays, times 150 defensive formations— there are literally tens of thousands of situations that a football play can produce BEFORE THE PLAY STARTS.

Compare that to baseball, where you have 3 or 4 pitches and the hitter can pick 4 or 5 sections of the strike zone to focus on. It’s literally orders of magnitude less complex. Even a basketball team might have 50 plays and run through 4 or 5 of them per offensive possession, plus 10 or 20 defensive schemes. Volleyball has similar numbers to basketball. The list goes on and on…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Rote memorization...

does not equal mental acumen. Or route memorization for that matter.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jan 6, 2009 12:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not possible to memorize every one of those situations by rote

Literally— not possible. There are more interactions between plays than there are words in everyday use in the English language.

It’s a lot easier to memorize a pitcher’s tendencies by rote than it is to memorize those of a football defense.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Anecdotal evidence from sports writers and such

generally agrees that football players are smarter than baseball players on the whole, contrary to the stereotype.

I think this argument is going nowhere without a clearer definition of what we mean by "mental." As far as I can tell, the entire disagreement here boils down to different interpretations of that word.

The guessing game component is clearly central to the pitcher-hitter confrontation. Is that "mental"?

Let’s remove the physical component and say we’re playing rock-paper-scissors. Now it makes no difference how fast you can throw or swing the bat, it’s just about outguessing your opponent. Is rock-paper-scissors a "mental" game? In one sense, of course it is. There is no physical component at all, so it’s 100% mental.

On the other hand, is the smart guy who thinks out every possibility going to do any better than the guy who just trusts his gut? Probably not, or at least not by much. I do think there’s such a thing as genuine skill at rock-paper-scissors (it has been demonstrated empirically, in fact), but I don’t think the smarter guy is necessarily the most skillful. So too with baseball.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jan 6, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I prefer rock, paper, scissors, lizard, Spock.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mKbnVKdix8

by LoneStranger on Jan 6, 2009 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

See my examples a bit above for what I mean by "mental"

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 6, 2009 5:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Paul, you must be purposely

trolling for controversy with that statement.

Whether you Paul Thomas define it as “mental” or not, compartmentalization of events (a mental process) is probably more important in baseball success than in any other sports endeavor. And the ability to compartmentalize personal history is probably the largest single factor separating successful major league ballplayers and all the rest of the baseball players whose success never carried them past the minor leagues.

Officially awaiting the 2009 season.

by One won lost won on Jan 6, 2009 12:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

"a mental process" does not equal the conventional notion of a process being "mental"

Compartmentalization, yes, is hugely important — in any athletic endeavor. Being able to “turn off” one’s brain (or portions of it) is probably more important than over-thinking any specific aspect of the game. But that’s more of a psychological trait or skill than what we mean by labeling the game as more or less “mental.”

I mean, hand-eye coordination rests largely within the domain of the neurological — does that mean that it’s “mental”?

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

well

wouldnt you say that most of hitting is perceptual tho? because the difference between two physically gifted people on the baseball field is perceptual. reading pitches, and being able to respond quickly and accurately has a lot to do with how you perceive everything, right?

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 6, 2009 1:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, but that's not a conscious thought process

It’s instinctual— psychological conditioning coupled with various genetic factors.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 2:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

See ball, hit ball

Johnny Evers, of the famous “Tinker to Evers to Chance” fame, said this in a New York Star interview in 1925:

When I played baseball it was as much a battle of wits as a trial of strength and speed. Everything was trying to outguess the other fellow and we used to spend hours doping out plays, but I guess most of the current players have stopped thinking. All they have to do now is walk up to the plate, grip the bat at the end, and take a swing.

Officially awaiting the 2009 season.

by One won lost won on Jan 14, 2009 10:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

shrugs

I guess it makes sense. Although I’m sure over the course of an entire season, deciding to place Crosby 8th or 9th has little overall effect on the team’s run totals.

"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 5, 2009 9:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going by the simple assumption

that in 2009, Ryan Sweeney will not be the hitter that I want to give the majority of at bats to. Why? Because he’s not that good at hitting.

Buck, on the other hand, deserves some consideration. But I’m hesitant to immediately lead off with him at the beginning of the season. If he proves that he can continue hitting like last September/2007, then I’d have no reservations with him leading off.

"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 5, 2009 8:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

woops, this should be a reply to nico

"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Jan 5, 2009 8:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I wasn't trying to extoll Sweeney's virtues,

just ask why not pick whomever you think will provide a solid OBP and put him #1 followed by Cust et al.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 8:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Does it matter than last year Sweeney was above average as a hitter for position (corner OF)

How is that “not that good at hitting”?

by thejd44 on Jan 5, 2009 11:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Say it ain't so!

by IronBruin on Jan 5, 2009 8:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Poor Dale, and poor Ryan. He's going to have to find a new best friend while Dale's

at AAA.

by Erin6 on Jan 5, 2009 8:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Are you volunteering?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

it's not easy work

if you turn your attention away from him for a second, he might hurt himself

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 9:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My Line-Up:

Raj/Buck
Sweeney
Holliday
Cust
Giambi
Crosby
Chavez
Suzuki
Ellis

But when they start scheming us the way these guys did, and we weren't particularly ready for it, anything can happen."

by saint on Jan 5, 2009 9:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I was with you till the #6 slot.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 5, 2009 9:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Crosby ahead of Chavez and Suzuki

Interesting.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 5, 2009 9:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Chavy hits better in the 7 or 8 hole: He just does

Catchers should hit 8th, unless that are Pudge, Victor Martinez or Johnny Bench. he can always hit his way into a better run producing slot, it is important to have him focusing on catching more than hitting. IMO.

I could easily see him switching with Crosby by May or June.

Then again, Crosby is my pick for AL MVP this year.

- Raymond Gammons

But when they start scheming us the way these guys did, and we weren't particularly ready for it, anything can happen."

by saint on Jan 6, 2009 10:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

or Mauer. I don't think Mauer should hit 8th.

by mikev on Jan 6, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Latest SF Chronicle article (Giambi close to signing, Chavy to play 3rd)

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/01/05/SP22153U9F.DTL&tsp=1

Chavez says he’ll play third: Eric Chavez said his most recent right shoulder surgery went so well that he has “no doubt” he will be able to return to third base, a position at which he has won six Gold Gloves.

Chavez’s shoulder was in such poor shape last season, despite surgery in fall 2007, that there was thought he might have to move to first base, but Chavez said by phone Monday that his rehab has been smooth this time.

“I’m doing everything, and it’s going well,” Chavez said. “I’m throwing at the stadium and that’s feeling really good, and hitting is no problem at all. The last three weeks, everything’s come together. My shoulder feels better than it has in the past 10 years.”

by Trainman on Jan 5, 2009 9:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

cool

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 5, 2009 10:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

A healthy Chaves would be my #1

A’s wish this season.

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Jan 5, 2009 10:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You know me Syphon

I have never been a great Chavy supporter but I am willing to give the guy a chance to see what he can do when he’s healthy.

Of coure my main gripe with him three or four years ago was more with some of the stuff that came from his mouth back then.

Lets hope he gets in 120 games.

by Trainman on Jan 5, 2009 10:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Youre no Vert :)

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Jan 5, 2009 10:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

No one can be Vert

I see he still goes over there and comments on Chavy.

by Trainman on Jan 5, 2009 10:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Seriosuly?

What is that guys deal. Can you say no life? I mean he hasnt given it up for over 5 years,

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Jan 5, 2009 10:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, blast from the past.

by mikev on Jan 5, 2009 10:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wheres Smacca At?

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Jan 5, 2009 10:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

We need an AwfulWaffle sighting.

by mikev on Jan 5, 2009 10:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

HFG

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Jan 5, 2009 10:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I forgot about Waffle

Smacca’s over there occasionally

by Trainman on Jan 5, 2009 11:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

and Yes

HFG

by Trainman on Jan 5, 2009 11:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Man, I haven't been over there for like... years now.

by mikev on Jan 6, 2009 7:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What a big waste of money.

I have lost almost total interest in the 2009 A’s season. The only bright spot is that Giambi will probably fall apart before the end of spring training, so I won’t have to actually watch him play (m)any games that matter.

This is, by far, Billy Beane’s worst offseason as the general manager of the A’s.

by thejd44 on Jan 5, 2009 11:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Jan.6th, 2009

Do Pitchers and Catchers Report tomorrow? The Offseason is over? I still think there’s a trade in the works to bring in a SS or Starting Pitcher… and adding Giambi and Holliday makes the offense better next year. Sprinkle in some Chavvy, 2nd Year Suzuki, Buck/Sweeney, to go along w/ an above average bullpen… Pretty exciting if you ask me. But I spew Optimism.

by Colorado Fan on Jan 5, 2009 11:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

worst offseason as the gm so far :)

but actually i disagree. and ill admit to spewing optimism as well. but i gotta say im excited for holliday, the possibility of contention, the young guys, and hopefully some more moves too.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 11:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Giambi actually makes them worse

I just have no faith in him being anything but marginally better than Barton, if that. And it’s money that could’ve gone to a player who actually would’ve improved the team in another area.

The Holliday deal only makes sense if they re-sign him or if they build a winner for 2009. I don’t see the A’s getting better by a move other than the Holliday trade, and that’s not enough.

Beane failed on Furcal – and that’s not such a bad thing. I wasn’t big on the guy, and I wouldn’t give him what it would’ve taken. So in a way it was a prudent failure. He failed on Randy Johnson. He “succeeds” on the guy who is popular on these boards, but in an objective sense isn’t going to help the team very much.

I reserve the right to change my mind on this. If Barton is sent to AAA to learn third base, fine. If the deal is for $5 million or less, fine. If Barton is traded for a real shortstop, fine. But even then there are better options out there for the money (Dunn). It just doesn’t look like a very productive move at this point.

by thejd44 on Jan 5, 2009 11:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If Giambi playes 130+ Games

he will hit 30+ Bombs. have a 380 OBP and Slug 500+. Now whats not to like other than his bad D? 1st isnt a premium Defensive position. 3 of the Last 4 Years hes been healthy and very productive.

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Jan 5, 2009 11:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Giambi hits 30+ homers in 150 games

I think more realistic is about 22 homers in 120 games. More than Barton, probably.

As for a “premium defensive position,” -15 runs is -15 runs is -15 runs. It doesn’t matter where you cost the team runs.

I think if this were the signing of a player who was exactly equal to Giambi in every possible way, except he never played for the A’s, a good 75% of the people who like the deal would hate it.

by thejd44 on Jan 6, 2009 12:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You're probably right

Giambi elicits passions in A’s fans that no other player does.

I spent the last seven years, for example, hoping he would never win a World Series as a Yankee. Is that terribly rational, especially given all of Giambi’s other troubles and the fact that the A’s were a lot better off he went to New York? Of course not.

At the same time, I have felt a certain level of sympathy for the guy, because he came the closest of any baseball star to actually admitting what he did. Yes, he weaseled out of saying the actual words in public, but he still did more than others.

Giambi, for all his flaws, always seemed like a decent enough guy, and the team won a lot of games and was a lot of fun when he was here. It won’t be the same, for better and worse, to have him back. But I can’t say that I am upset about it.

So there you go. Giambi is a 38-year-old weak fielder whose career is on what might be a steep downslope. But it’s got me thinking about A’s baseball in early January, and that’s not a bad thing.

by bear88 on Jan 6, 2009 12:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

first base defense is notoriously difficult to evaluate statistically

In one critical area (IMO), the ability to dig low throws, he has been described as being proficient.

Crazy as it seems, he might not be -15 runs defensively.

by Lovejoy on Jan 6, 2009 9:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hard to see how

As noted in a previous Fanpost and another comment on this thread, I’m ambivalent about Giambi’s return.

But I have trouble seeing how he makes the A’s worse, as long as the team is able to cut him loose after a season. Barton was really awful last season, and didn’t deserve a starting job based on his 2008 performance.

But if Giambi is awful, and that’s possible, the A’s will only have lost some money. I don’t care if it’s $5 million or $8 million. What’s likely is that Giambi will provide the plate discipline and power the team has lacked at first base since, well, Giambi left. He won’t be the guy we remember from his steroid-fueled prime, but he probably will be good for a .360 minimum on base percentage and at least 20 home runs.

I’ll take that, and it would improve the team. The A’s need more than Giambi to contend, but he doesn’t hurt.

by bear88 on Jan 5, 2009 11:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

I don’t quite get the site-wide hyperventilating scorn directed at the prospect of the A’s signing Giambi. He’s declining! He’s morally bankrupt! His hair is greasy! His defense is an abomination not fit for virgin eyes! He’ll block all those awesome youngsters who had shitty seasons last year!

It’s going to be a one year deal, for crying out loud.

If everyone remains perfectly healthy, the Buck/Cunningham/Barton triumvirate (presuming Sweeney is the starting CF) will have to compete for PA’s, but is that really such a catastrophe?

1. Everyone will not remain perfectly healthy
2. Buck and Barton were terrible in 2008

Defensive shortcomings notwithstanding, Giambi was clearly an upgrade over Barton last year. Maybe in 2009 he’ll be lots worse and/or Barton will be lots better, but I think it’s a mistake to treat that possibility as a fait accompli.

In any event, in the spirit of the new year (and glad tidings generally), I have flown to Kansas, closed my eyes tight, clicked my heels, and irrationally concluded that Chavez will be pain-free and in 2004 form for the entire season, thereby closing the plus minus projected regressed win value whatever gap between us and the Angels in one fell swoop, and rendering all this consternation blissfully beside the point.

by 74mk on Jan 6, 2009 12:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

For what it's worth, his "past" steroid use isn't playing a role in why I don't want him on the team

Plus, the sarcasm doesn’t actually refute that his decline and poor defense are very real things.

by thejd44 on Jan 6, 2009 12:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not arguing that he hasn’t declined since 2006, or that he plays fabulous defense. I’m arguing, well, this:

Defensive shortcomings notwithstanding, Giambi was clearly an upgrade over Barton last year. Maybe in 2009 he’ll be lots worse and/or Barton will be lots better, but I think it’s a mistake to treat that possibility as a fait accompli.

(you gotta read the whole post)

The issue isn’t whether or not Giambi will approximate his 2006 performance. It’s whether he’ll be appreciably worse than his 2008 self, while Barton and/or Buck become appreciably better than their 2008 selves. Maybe that will happen, maybe it won’t, but I don’t think it’s the slam dunk you make it out to be.

And if he does fail terribly?

It’s going to be a one year deal, for crying out loud.

by 74mk on Jan 6, 2009 1:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s going to be a one year deal, for crying out loud.

Well, heck, let’s sign Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones, then.

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 7:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure Rickey would like one last hurrah.

by mikev on Jan 6, 2009 7:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Since you are sharp-minded fellow,

I’m certain you know I wasn’t saying all one year deals are good, regardless of the player, circumstance, or salary amount. I am saying that one argument in favor of this particular deal is the brevity of the contract.

So your comment is confusing.

It’s going to be a one year deal*, for crying out loud**.

* for a player who may prove to be a modest upgrade.

** if he does suck, it is really not a big deal, in that the A’s will not have expended much in terms of players, money, and length of commitment.

Better?

by 74mk on Jan 6, 2009 8:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

nope

Leaving aside the question of what our lineup is looking like for 2010, what’s the real benefit in signing Giamsorri to a low-risk 1y+ contract? Beane obviously isn’t “going for it” in ‘09 — if he was, he would have bid high enough to nail down Furcal and Unit, and would be exploring an innovative 1y+ contract for Dunn or Manny. He’s working to improve the team on the margins for ‘09, to garner a small uptick in competitivity with the Slegna and Rangers rather than stepping on their necks when he has the opportunity. He’s also hedging his bet on Barton. He’s in a holding pattern, and is strenuously avoiding any long-term commitments of any sort—which, coming back to the question of the ‘10 lineup, begs the question of what future he’s actually holding for.

Given how cheaply Beane is apparently getting him, I’m not opposed to the imminent signing per se; but I am worried about the medium-to-long-term plan, and I think the way Beane is constructing the ’09 roster, this season will be a crapshoot at best and may lay the groundwork for several seasons of meh.

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 10:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

stop it with the giamsorri

pleeeease

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Jan 6, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I also vote to stop "Giamsorri"

I would also like to suggest banning “Slegna”. They almost annoy me as much as “Doyle” from AN 2.0.

You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}

by micdog2001 on Jan 6, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

After we eliminate "Coli" and "Cali."

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Jan 6, 2009 1:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Can't agree with this.

I can’t stand typing “Coliseum” when Coli will do nicely.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jan 6, 2009 1:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Then let's find something...

…that doesn’t sound so sissy. These are the grounds of Jim Otto, Ben Davidson, Willie Brown, Reggie Jackson, and Catfish Hunter. We can’t use Coli.

Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!

by Monday Fan on Jan 8, 2009 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

House of Thrills

would work. Or when typing, “HOT”.

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Jan 8, 2009 12:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

bumbaclot!

dem try and try but na get me collie

"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King

by Buck Turgidson on Jan 6, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

1. You’re overreacting.

2. Who’s to say we don’t stand quite a reasonable shot at contending in 2009, even as presently constructed? Hell, PT hates everything Beane has done this offseason, and he thinks we’re the division favorites.

3. I don’t really have any well-developed thoughts regarding 2010. But I’m more open to 2010-based criticisms of the Holliday trade than of this deal, which is low risk, perfectly sensible, and not the end of the world no matter how it turns out.

4. The Giamsorri thing is more irritating than the Wire thing.

5. I tend to think that most of the ought tos and should haves and would haves we at AN toss about with such certainty (“innovative” contracts for Dunn/Ramirez, bidding high on Johnson/Furcal, stepping on various necks, etc.) are based on tenuous slivers of quasi-information and presumption, and aren’t actually applicable to real life.

by 74mk on Jan 6, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Bartender...

Give me whatever 74mk is drinking.. :-)

by IM4Oakgal on Jan 6, 2009 11:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

i only agree with you on one thing

and that’s the desire to have dunn. but, beane didnt fail on furcal in my opinion, and you agree (somewhat). but im not going to go there now cause its over and done. johnson had no desire to come to the AL. i dont think giambi will be less productive than barton. even if he were to make them worse, id say there’s value in the time barton spends in AAA.

and we all know this, but the offseason is still going and i still have faith for another move.

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 5, 2009 11:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Giambi's return

There’s no way he will be worse than Canseco when he came back.

I’m sure he will be happy to be here, which is something. And it’s hard to imagine he won’t be an upgrade over last year’s version of Barton. I do like that the A’s apparently can get him for a year and an option. That gives Beane room for another move or two.

But as I discussed back in my Barton Fanpost, I’m pretty ambivalent about this – because Giambi is on the downside of his career, and his falloff in production may accelerate away from the Yankee Stadium porch. Then again, he could have another good year in him, and it would be nice to see that.

And let’s face it. Giambi is a name, one with a checkered past, but a guy that average people know. On a team of nobodies, that’s worth something.

by bear88 on Jan 5, 2009 11:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Srangely, I think he's more than a name here in oakland

and he has a lot to prove to A’s fans, in a certain way no other hitter does. That’s the x-factor he brings.

by oaklidiot on Jan 5, 2009 11:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, you're all passionate at least.

(and you know what Yeats said of the passionate)

Although I’m not sure what’s gotten into AN. End of football season? Over 250 responses to a “we might sign JG” post in eight hours, deep into the off-season…Nico’s gotta be paying some of these people, right?

I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico

by Leopold Bloom on Jan 5, 2009 11:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Well, at this point it's more than "they might sign him"

There’s multiple reports of it being imminent. I think we’re reacting now as if it’s a done deal.

by thejd44 on Jan 6, 2009 12:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You think AN is hiring shills as posters now?

Hey, it makes sense. Pay a couple people to come post a bunch of stuff about how the team is unclutch and needs to steal more bases, and bang— controversy!

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 6, 2009 12:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Do people here think that Beane ...

Acquired Holliday with the intent to trade him for more prospects etc? Or did he just get outwitted all season on the available and affordable players? And now that seems to make the best sense?

by IM4Oakgal on Jan 6, 2009 12:05 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think he acquired Holliday with plans to bring in more players

And for reasons beyond his control, those players aren’t going to play for the A’s. I don’t think he failed in planning, but I think he wrongly assumed that he had a chance to get certain players.

by thejd44 on Jan 6, 2009 12:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably right but the turn this off-season has taken is so

disappointing. We were all so excited to have Holliday join the A’s. It will be a better offense but unless Chavvy, or Buck or someone has a surprisingly good season it doesn’t look like a team that is greatly exciting.

by IM4Oakgal on Jan 6, 2009 12:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know.....

but a healthy Buck, a resurgent Chavez, and an 08 Giambi makes for a significant upgrade. The only thing Beane has lost out on this year is Furcal. So what. It would have been nice, but given our soon to be lineup, I would rather suffer through Crosby for another year and add a decent pitcher rather than sign Furcal.

Consider me an optimist, but I think we have a decent chance of competing with the Angels.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jan 6, 2009 9:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll be an optimist here (just for fun)

I have been skeptical about Chavez. Let’s say I am wrong. [The A’s, it should be noted, have not even bothered looking for a third baseman. That may be really stupid, but perhaps it’s a sign they believe Chavez’s cheery sounds are for real.] I don’t expect miracles, but a Chavez who can play third base for 120 games and hits 20-25 homers would be a huge upgrade.

I actually have a fair amount of hope about Buck. Last season was lost, but it’s entirely reasonable to think he can get back to being the guy he was as a rookie.

What if the A’s get lucky on the injury front for a change? If so, then all of these lineups people have been debating on this thread don’t look like such a joke. Would a team with a healthy and productive Chavez and Buck, along with Giambi and Holliday and Cust, be an offensive joke? No. That team would be comparable to the Angels, at least on offense.

Starting pitching remains the rub. I don’t see how the A’s compete with the Angels next season unless an awful lot of things go right. I think a solid starter remains critical (Lowe, a healthy Sheets). If that happens, and the Angels’ pitching isn’t quite so solid, I can see the A’s hanging around until the All Star Break, and then who knows?

As a Holliday trade skeptic who doesn’t think the current team can contend next year, I don’t think all of these wonderful things will happen. But I think Beane faced more limitations, financial and otherwise, than he expected. And I don’t think he is done.

by bear88 on Jan 6, 2009 12:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Good points, all of these

add Sweeney to the mix, and Spring optimism starts to feel right around the corner.

by oaklidiot on Jan 6, 2009 6:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If Beane didn't expect the limitations he faced, then he's not really very good at his job

I'll send you a postcard from Space Mountain. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 6, 2009 7:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Did it occur to anyone here...

that maybe the A’s are signing Giambi to be a DH and not to play first?
Or is the general consensus that we are giving up on a 23 year-old first baseman?

by Bakedawg on Jan 6, 2009 1:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

One year deal is not giving up on Barton.

A year in AAA would do him good.

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Jan 6, 2009 1:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I would think Giambi would DH a little

considering he probably will get hurt sometime during the season and need to ease back in the lineup and that Cust played a lot of outfield last year. But I guess it doesn’t make much sense to have two guys who can only play 1st and DH (G and Barton).

Who DH’d while Cust was in the outfield anyways? The Big Hurt only played a month or so.

You have to include smiley faces - Poppy
;- ) :- ) :-O : -> : -] : -}

by micdog2001 on Jan 6, 2009 11:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Cust in the outfield makes me cringe

by Bakedawg on Jan 6, 2009 12:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

or it would ruin his confidence

you send him down your telling him he isn’t good enough for the A’s anymore

by Bakedawg on Jan 6, 2009 2:02 AM PST reply actions 1 recs

Maybe so

but that’s the life lesson it will take to make him a major leaguer. It was almost as hard on us to watch his struggles last year as it was on him. And this is his second slide in production. Got to put the team first now that we have Holliday (however briefly), and go for it. Barton would benefit just from watching an A/s successful season. Plus they’ve showed him plenty of faith so far.

by oaklidiot on Jan 6, 2009 6:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Or they are letting Barton have a vet 1Bman that has a history of being a decent hitter

come in and help the kid out some. And with the addition of Holliday as well, I am okay with the idea of a home coming for Giambi. And ideally Cust and the youngsters would learn from both Giambi and Holliday how to approach hitting and maybe just maybe be better at it than the 2008 A’s were.

And besides I would rather see Giambi out there than DFA again. And if you compare the additions this year (new OFer in Holliday and 1B/DH in Giambi?) compared to last years (OFer DFA and DL/DH in Thomas) I feel that the A’s have done a crap ton of work to improve the 2009 team. And with an addition to the rotation this team could be rally good. But what the heck. Everything done so far sucks and the 2009 season will suck. Let me know when its 2010.
.

by A'sfaninNC on Jan 6, 2009 9:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs