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TotalZone for Minor Leaguers

This isn't going to be one of my really long rambles, just a quick look at some information which you may not have seen. Minorleaguesplits.com, which you should check out if you are at all interested in the A's minor league system, now includes a "defense" button for position players! This takes you to a page where defensive stats are calculated-- in runs-- using a primitive but reasonably effective method called TotalZone, developed by Sean Smith (of CHONE projection fame) to measure defense for players who played before modern fielding metrics. Turns out it also applies to minor leaguers.

Take this with a grain of salt, not for the gospel-- TotalZone isn't super accurate and I wouldn't get too caught up in the exact run measurements. It's more useful as a concept tool.

So what does it tell us about the A's prospects?

Star-divide

Aaron Cunningham: Looks like a defensive "tweener". He scores modestly well in a corner and modestly poor in center. Squares with my take on him, which is that his defense and positional adjustment should make him roughly league-average apart from his bat.

Sean Doolittle: Despite scouting reports touting him as an excellent 1B, did not score well on this metric at all... but conversely his limited work in right field has been excellent. I think I have to drop him a little on my personal prospect list, but it's encouraging that he's showing well at what's theoretically a harder position.

Chris Carter: Just give the man's glove to an RBI league, already.

Adrian Cardenas: Too little data to say much. Seems OK at shortstop so far.

Corey Brown: Appears to be able to handle center field competently. Combined with a plus arm, could be a net-positive defender.

Javier Herrera: Defense has declined from "good CF" to "average corner" since the injury problems.

Cliff Pennington/Gregorio Petit: Maybe there's hope for Cliff after all; he scores well on the metric (though he was very poor in the majors last year). Petit looks OK but not great, so he'll either have to improve his hitting or start transforming his tools into better defensive performance if he wants an MLB job.

Jeff Baisley: Seems very competent. Hitting will still make or break him.

Jack Hannahan: Can apparently play second base if needed. +13 runs there in 2006-2007.

Jermaine Mitchell: Looks like a defensive stud. If he can rediscover his 2007 stroke, could still be a very good player.

Matt Sulentic: Reports that his defense has improved are borne out here, so even a skeptic like me has to move him up the list some.

 

Big winners (relative to reputation/scouting report): Pennington, Sulentic, Mitchell, Brown

Big losers: Doolittle, Carter, Herrera

6 recs  |  Comment 33 comments

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A grain of salt indeed.

How was Doolittle’s fielding on the mound?

by Atma Sister One on Jan 28, 2009 11:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I saw this yesterday

and checked it out. It seems pretty cool, but as with any defensive metric, must be used for many years in order to get a ballpark estimate of defensive capabilities. I do like this system, and it gets a lot of players right, but some of them come out with really weird numbers.

"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby

by DyeLongJustice on Jan 29, 2009 6:34 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Paul!

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 29, 2009 6:46 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Some SS prospects -- Runs per 150 G 2008

Good:

Alcides Escobar, 21, Southern League (AA): +24
Reid Brignac, 22, International League (AAA): +11

Adequate:

Hu Chin-Lung, 24, Pacific Coast League (AAA): +4
Elvis Andrus, 19, Texas League (AA): +2
Ivan De Jesus, 21, Southern League (AA): -8

Bad:

Jason Donald, 23, Eastern League (AA): -37
Carlos Triunfel, 18, California League (A+): -47

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 29, 2009 7:06 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

First thing I did when i saw that new metrics were up

Search “Alcides Escobar”

Dear Santa, next Christmas I would like a box of chocolates and one bonafide Alcides Escobar.

"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby

by DyeLongJustice on Jan 29, 2009 7:15 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty much standard scouting reports

id take the report on Doolittle with a slight grain of salt being as his RF numbers are better, which just seems fluky. We can try to measure fielding as accurately as possible but even the best minds in sabermetrics say its an inexact science. On the other hand, Doolittle might have been generally assumed to be a good defensive player because thats the perception of the type of player he is, the Mark Grace, John Olerued, good average, doubles power good defense type. perhaps the positive scouting reports were due to that perception. Whatever it is, its certainly interesting

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com

by harendaman365 on Jan 29, 2009 12:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Chris Carter

I searched for Chris Carter, but couldn’t find him, only the Red Sox version (who is even more of a butcher with the glove).

by VanderBirch on Jan 29, 2009 4:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Looks like Jack Cust's younger brother

And a 60.7% fly ball rate in ‘08? That’s just stupid.

by HigherPie on Jan 29, 2009 6:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Keep in mind that the California League basically does not have the category "line drive"

League average rate there is like 8% or something.

His true percentage is probably more like 50%. And that’s a good thing when you’re a guy with enormous power and limited footspeed.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Jan 29, 2009 7:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I feel he should bunt more

You know – little things, grit and some such.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 29, 2009 8:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Can't be gritty

He’s black.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Jan 29, 2009 9:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

toolsy

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Jan 30, 2009 7:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks PT - great stuff!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 29, 2009 6:19 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Justin Sellers

Sellers looks like a great fielder, which squares with his reputation. I’m somewhat confused why he hasn’t been playing SS in the minors.

The A’s have a bevy of this sort of player- SS with average OBP ability but absolutely no power and some decent defense.

by VanderBirch on Jan 30, 2009 6:45 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think it's mostly because he keeps being on the same team with Cliff Pennington

(Part of it is also that the A’s like their infielders to be able to play multiple positions.)

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Jan 30, 2009 8:21 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

More minor league news: A's have signed Bobby Cramer

Interesting history.

He might get to contend for the second lefty spot in the bullpen, especially if the A’s don’t sign another major league free agent.

Google search reveals that he worked as a pitching instructor at one point and also that he apparently signed to pitch in Italy (!) for this season. (One presumes the A’s bought him out of that deal, or he may have had a contractual option allowing him to pitch for an affiliated team if he was offered a contract with one.)

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Jan 30, 2009 11:54 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Nice stint in AA

Looks reasonably promising – compared to, say, Ben Copeland. Grr…

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 30, 2009 1:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A guy named Bobby Cr___ from SoCal who went to Long Beach State?

Oh, that bodes well …

A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 30, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ironically, they were teammates for at least three seasons

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Jan 30, 2009 5:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He appears to have better control and K ability

It could be a mirage created by playing in weak leagues, but you never know.

That said, there’s probably a 97% chance we never hear his name again after this season.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Jan 31, 2009 8:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Q&A with David Forst up

Here.

Edited highlights:

DLS looks like he’ll be pitching by May or so next year, which is good. Also, if things don’t work out for him here, he can always move to Japan to help them out with their low birthrate. (See here.)

Gregorio Petit is represented by Scott Boras?!? Apparently the A’s have no anti-Boras policy, apart from their general anti-spending-money policy…

Only had part of my Arnold Leon question answered, but the A’s see him as a starter and are still trying to figure out how to get him there stamina-wise.

Sleepers: Doolittle (hey, I called that one) and Daniel Thomas.

A’s will continue to budget extra $$ for IFAs and overslot players.

They still see Landon Powell as a catcher; he could make the team out of spring if he’s healthy and hitting well.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Jan 30, 2009 7:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Good read - actually one thing that impressed me

(because it usually doesn’t) was the quality of the questions. And David Forst always answers as directly and forthrightly as he can.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 30, 2009 8:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sweet Baby DLS

DLS is a MACHINE. Quadruplets AND Twins? Oh my.

"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby

by DyeLongJustice on Feb 3, 2009 6:51 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Someone is trying to procreate himself right into the poor house

The nuts and bolts of gameplay are apocalyptic failures, but the awfulness doesn’t stop there. Managing games is utterly pointless. [Feb 2009, p.85]

by A'sfaninNC on Feb 3, 2009 6:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the Cliff Notes PT

The nuts and bolts of gameplay are apocalyptic failures, but the awfulness doesn’t stop there. Managing games is utterly pointless. [Feb 2009, p.85]

by A'sfaninNC on Feb 3, 2009 6:57 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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