Let's Talk about Starting Pitching
by baseballgirl on Jan 28, 2009 8:00 AM PST
Email
PrintBBG Note: If you have any interest in being a part of any or all of the California Dreamin’ road trip posted last week, email me at baseballgirl1976 at hotmail, so I can keep you updated on any plans.
With all of the talk of our offense on AN (and for good reason; it was abysmal last year, to put it kindly), I feel like some sort of discussion on the starting rotation is in order. What is our starting rotation going to look like this season, and is it going to be any good?
I think the A’s need to pick up another pitcher--maybe even two--to start the season, and every day, I check the latest hot stove reports, hoping something will come across the wire. So far, the A’s have stayed silent on the pitching front, but I wonder if that will change.
Right now, we have the following:
Justin Duchscherer:
Duke was excellent last year, posting a 2.54 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in route to a pedestrian 10-8 record; the eight losses a direct result of the A's craptastic 2008 offense. Despite an incredible season, the oft-injured reliever-turned-starter once again found himself on the DL for a chunk of time. Duchscherer is a legitimate ace, but has not proved that he can stay healthy day in and day out during the demands of an entire season. The A's are in BIG trouble if he goes down.
Sean Gallagher:
Despite pitching a great game his first time in an A's uniform after the mid-season trade, Gallagher struggled mightily during the summer, finishing the season for the A's with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. The A's expected more; and you can blame a lot of 2008 on the offense, but not Gallagher's numbers. The A's are looking for a rebound season from a very new pitcher.
Dana Eveland:
On Eveland's first year on the A's, after a roller-coaster of a season, he finished at 9-9, with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He started the year in impressive fashion, but as the summer wore on, his pitching became less and less consistent. The A's are looking for him to even out his season, but I doubt that anyone expects Eveland to be more than a 4/5 starter for the team, even if he ends up pitching in a higher slot.
Gio Gonzalez:
I think it goes without saying that the A's organization expected better than Gio's 2008 season; 1-4, with a 7.68 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP, but take what you can from the small sample size. He looked very much like the rookie he is on the mound, and the A's badly need him to turn it around, but the team is still very high on this young pitcher. And assuming they have reason to be, will Gonzalez be ready for the 2009 season, or are we looking at 2010?
Josh Outman:
In his brief A's stint, Outman went 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA, and a 1.64 WHIP. Adding rookies to the rotation is a gamble; you never know what you're going to get. Pitching the rookies will likely result in many up-and-down starts, and it's very hard to predict any sort of season outcome without a pitching history. The same caution applys to Outman as Gonzalez; assuming they will be proficient MLB pitchers, the question is when?
Dallas Braden:
Once a lost cause to the starting rotation, Braden (do we have a nickname yet?) put together a couple of decent starts late in the 2008 season, and finished with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, going 5-4 as he was bounced between AAA and the big leagues. Braden, a 'veteran' by the A's pitching rotation standards, may pitch himself into the starting rotation.
According to salb918:
This guy should have the inside track for the fifth starter job. Here’s what I had to say about him in the THT 2009 Season Preview (buy it today!):
Braden’s major league FIP is 4.70. He’s projected for a 4.50 ERA next year. He’s dominated the minors for the past few years. He’s going to be 25 in 2009. He may not be much to look at – his fastball sits at 87-89 mph and he really only has two secondary pitches – but he at least deserves a shot.
Not to depress anyone, but, wow. It's not that there isn't potential and talent there, but will that show up in 2009? Can the A's pitchers stay healthy? Can Duchscherer repeat last year's success? Can the others keep their ERA's under 4 and the balls in the park? Who else can crack the 40-man roster for a chance at a big league rotation spot? How much better exactly, does the offense have to be to win?
What about Ben Sheets? Can the A's take another injury risk for another legitimate good starting pitcher? Do they have much of a choice? Is there anyone else out there? Are we going to cry when we see the Yankees lineup and pitching rotation vs. ours?
I thought so.
287 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I'm voting for option 3, because really my opinion is a mix of Options 1 and 2.
Right now, the pitching POTENTIALLY can be really good, but it’s got almost the same chance at being kinda bad.
I’d be a lot more comfortable with Sheets alongside Duchscherer at the top of the rotation.
That sounds like you're not comfortable going into the season as is.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 8:26 AM PST up reply actions
Well, let me put it this way.
I’m not like this: 
But, I’m also not like THIS: 
Does that make more sense?
by mikev on Jan 28, 2009 9:43 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
This might sound, I don't know, weird
But I am more than 52% confident that I might love you right now.
I'm here to talk about the past.
I agree
That was awesome
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 9:59 AM PST up reply actions
Better yet
Considering I just made an AV reference below
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
We're straying
Dangerously close to BFF territory
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
It's fine
Since apparently the internet people only wear underwear
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
This post has motivated me to check out the OOTP league this week. For sure. I promise.
by thejd44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
Strangely enough, I got another email today from somebody at AN who registered.
But, they didn’t include their username and only identified themselves as “Nate from AN” so I’m not able to actually approve their account.
It wasn’t you, your account is approved. Has been. For weeks. HINT.
I think we are going into 2009 with the pitchers we have
From what I have read from Beane, it looks like he really wants to use the pitchers we have and not go out and get a veteran who would take a space away from our young guys.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
I think you're right
We are rebuilding, after all. I’m still trying to stay optimistic.
by somebodyelse on Jan 28, 2009 7:30 PM PST up reply actions
Also, Gio always seems to start a new level slowly and then he pitches bette once he is comfortable
That is one reason I read as to why he was placed into the bullpen after the early struggles, This allowed him to pitch less innings and get confidence.
I think Gio will be ok in 2009. Remember Braden’s 2007 was horrible and he did ok last year.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
Braden's 2007 wasn't horrible
by any pitching metric which actually makes sense.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
yea your right
a 1-8 record with an era near 7 isnt horrible
wins are a ridiculous stat to begin with
they aren’t really a strong stat to use in an argument, in my opinion. Braden had an unlucky BABIP and a FIP of 4.50. So to say it was horrible isn’t exactly correct. It was more like slightly below average.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 28, 2009 7:31 PM PST up reply actions
I rest my case
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Dallas Braden
This guy should have the inside track for the fifth starter job. Here’s what I had to say about him in the THT 2009 Season Preview (buy it today!):
Braden’s major league FIP is 4.70. He’s projected for a 4.50 ERA next year. He’s dominated the minors for the past few years. He’s going to be 25 in 2009. He may not be much to look at – his fastball sits at 87-89 mph and he really only has two secondary pitches – but he at least deserves a shot.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
Crazy, huh?
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
Maybe he's not
Giving the A’s track record on ages? Hes not from some indigenous tribe is he?
"You Went Full Retard, Man - Never Go Full Retard." --Kirk Lazarus
Nickname idea
“Bumblebee Tuna” for all you Ace Ventura fans out there
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 10:00 AM PST up reply actions
True
I just like those movies so I reference them whenever possible
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions
Dallas "Who shot J.R.?" Braden.
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
"What's up" Dallas "What's up" Braden
Yes, an unhealthy attachment to the Sir Mix-a-lot song, I know.
The trouble is he's the fourth starter right now -- and that's if Gallagher and Duke are healthy.
He could be the #2 starter by innings.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 8:28 AM PST up reply actions
Scary.
Without getting too caught up in the 1-5 labels, I’m most concerned about getting a 700+ innings out of our top five starters, whoever those might be. We’ll be relying a lot on guys like Gio, Outman, etc. to pick up the slack.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
Uh-oh
This comment comes dangerously close to kick starting PT’s new diet.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Not really.
Playing time projections be damned – I never pay attention to ‘em anyway. But it isn’t unreasonable to think that Duke and Gallagher might not hold up all season, and it’s not unreasonable that if Eveland, Gio, et. al. struggle then the bullpen will be picking up a lot of slack.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
So you're worried about the SP reaching 700 IP...
but you’re not projecting it to be an issue?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Maybe I wasn't clear.
Algorithmically projected playing time is based mostly on playing time from previous seasons or comparable players. While that’s a good way to project rate stats, it’s problematic for playing time since those can be unpredictably affected by injuries, managerial preference, roster construction, etc.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
You were clear
I’m just not seeing a difference unless you’re talking about a personal opinion vs. a professional (THT) opinion.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm not sure why you don't see the difference.
Algorithms (typically) don’t take into account known injuries, managerial preference, roster construction, etc. A judgment based on objective (but non-quantifiable) information is totally different, and has to be applied on a case-by-case basis. I can’t be any more clear than that.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
I understand that
What i’m saying is if you’re worried about reaching the 700 IP threshold then it doesn’t really matter how you came to that number, just that that number represents (for you) a possible tipping point between success and failure for the 2009 season.
There is no Tim Hudson (Atlanta ‘09 version) in the A’s group but all the algorithms and your own intuition (mine too, by the way) are all saying the same thing… the 2009 rotation doesn’t look very strong and the ability of the current group to provide the necessary innings is in question.
The monster at the end of this blog.
This is a really weird conversation.
The actual number (700) doesn’t really mean anything to me. I picked it out of thin air. Suffice to say that I don’t think the A’s are going to get enough innings out of their top n pitchers, and that the bullpen won’t be able to pick up the slack. That’s all.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
Oh the jocularity
It just so happens your whimsical number was practically spot on some projected numbers I mentioned the other day so I didn’t realize you were pulling stuff out of… thin air.
I agree with your non-specified formula.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Added that quote to the story
"I know they're the defending World Champs, but they are the whiniest team in baseball" -Rays announcers
by baseballgirl on Jan 28, 2009 8:33 AM PST up reply actions
Possible Nickname
I go with “Big Brim Braden”. You ever see how big and straight the brim on his cap is? Man, you could hold a wedding reception on that thing.
I was thinking White Chocolate, AKA "WC," or, simply, "Dub-C"
No one tries harder to look harder than Brad RedFro.
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
Depends
If we’re in “go for it” mode this season we need to add at least 1 or 2 more solid vets right now. With Duke’s injury risk and everyone else’s lack of experience, we can still give the kids a shot to prove themselves but only through 3-4 spots in the rotation (depending on injuries). If we’re really in “rebuild mode” then don’t bother with another arm, regardless of Duke’s health, let the kid’s show us what they can do in 4-5 spots in the rotation.
Odds are, we’re going to find 3-4 solid or better starters out of our farm system within the next 2-3 years, but to rely on them now to succeed now will likely be a bad idea. To rely on them for just experience isn’t.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
If Braden starts the season poorly his nickname is obvious:
Debbie.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Did Debbie start out poorly?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 8:28 AM PST up reply actions
from what i heard
she blows
when did we stop using adverbs proper?
by alea iacta est on Jan 28, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
Ease off
Everyone gives her a hard time.
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
Way to drive this joke home
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
What a stiff crowd
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
how's about
McLusky?
points to anyone getting that reference.
when did we stop using adverbs proper?
by alea iacta est on Jan 28, 2009 1:10 PM PST up reply actions
quit shoving this down my throat
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
"Debbie Does Dallas"?
Part 1 or part 2?
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
We Definitely need a starter or two
I do not have enough faith yet in Gio, Braden, Outman, Gallagher, or even Eveland. We could use Ben Sheets big time, and if we are out of the race by the all star break, then trade him along with Holliday. Jon Garland or Randy Wolf could be a decent option for a small amount also I think. I also feel they still should give Mulder a shot. I highly doubt that any of the guys mentioned will get signed though.
can't trade newly signed free agents
no?
when did we stop using adverbs proper?
by alea iacta est on Jan 28, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
There's a period
of time that must pass but the ASB is past that period so it’d be a-ok. I don’t condone the sign-and-trade approach because if you keep doing it FAs will never come to Oakland again.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
oh, i thought that period was a year
i’m not basing that thought on having looked anything up, mind
when did we stop using adverbs proper?
by alea iacta est on Jan 28, 2009 3:12 PM PST up reply actions
6 months unless they give their ok
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I stand corrected
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 9:42 PM PST up reply actions
As far as I know the Rangers are the only team to have made Ben Sheets an offer.
And that was for 1 year! Apparently, he’s only asking for a 2 year deal so unless his medical records look like the Soviet Unions Cold War “history of environmental compliance”, then why isn’t Beane even considering him?
I mean, we’re talking the Texas f*&#ing Rangers here! I think it has to at least be considered to make the guy an offer unless he is just reanimated or something……
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
Lest we forget
Jerome Williams is part of the mix as well. All kidding aside, we all know the A’s should get another starter but for whatever reason he has, Billy does not feel this way and seems content to go with the younguns. Maybe he’s right, or maybe he’ll shock us and pick up someone in a couple weeks. Who knows? Until that happens I’m just sending all my positive mojo to Gallagher’s arm because if he can mature quickly that would be a huge boost to not only our current plans but also our future ones as well.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Eh.
I guess the cost of adding Sheets would include the A’s top draft pick? I think I remember reading somewhere that the Brewers were waiting on that hoping the Mets didn’t pick him up.
But we’ve got a full rotation of IFs. We could use a vet that could be a filler, but Beane (I guess) is set with the guys in his stable.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Come to think about it, a full rotation of IFs could do us some good.
Here’s to hoping Crosby can unleash his inner outside slider.
rich hill reclamation project
out of options, wouldnt take much to get him
with cubs about to acquire heilman and still have marshall, gaudin, cotts, etc around…looks to be no spot for hill
Cubs Close To Acquiring Aaron Heilman
By Tim Dierkes [January 28, 2009 at 10:25am CST]
According to ESPN Radio’s Bruce Levine, the Cubs are close to acquiring pitcher Aaron Heilman from the Mariners. The Ms want shortstop Ronny Cedeno and pitching in return. Heilman was dealt to Seattle in the J.J. Putz trade earlier this winter. Earlier this month, Ken Rosenthal mentioned that the Mariners were likely willing to trade Heilman, “who they did not consider a key component of the Putz trade.”
Heilman, 30, is set to earn $1.625MM in ‘09. He’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2010 season.
Levine also mentioned that three teams are interested in out-of-options Cubs hurler Rich Hill.
I hope he means three teams are interested in claiming him on waivers
I wouldn’t give up more than a bad relief prospect to get him. He’s Rick Ankiel without the bat.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
we only have
GOOD relief prospects in this organization
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 10:00 AM PST up reply actions
Jeff Gray?
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
HA
Don’t know that the words “prospect” and “Jeff Gray” should really be in the same sentence…Yes – Jeff Gray for Rich Hill? That’d be masterful!
I think Rich Hill could actually do well in the Coliseum and would, at the very least, benefit from the A.L. hitters not being familiar with his stuff the first time around. I see him as a poor man’s Ted Lilly. Maybe he needs a change of scenery to tie it all together. That and a pitching coach (Young) able and willing to address the roots of his command problems. If he could be had cheap (maybe more along the lines of a Drew Bailey and Travis Banwart package) I’d be for it.
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
wow way too much
i wouldnt trade bailey or banwart straight up fo hill. since hill’s out of options, one of the 40 man fringe guys like gray or robnett would be the most i’d give up
by Asfan4ever723 on Jan 28, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
I don't know if
he’d be had that easily. I think the Cubs would sooner wait it out with the guy and see if he can put up some decent numbers in the spring, show that he’s healthy. Maybe not Bailey then (I’m a huge Bailey fan, and was glad to see him turn it around last year after going to the pen) but I think you’d have to dangle something a little juicier than Robnett…What about Dan Meyer???
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
If by juicy you mean decrepit
then yes, Meyer is perfect! :)
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 10:28 AM PST up reply actions
Dan Meyer was claimed off waivers by Florida months ago
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
possible, but hill's in a roster crunch
he’d have to beat out gaudin, marshal, cotts, heilman
add in that hill has never been a reliever
dan meyer dfa’d, picked up by marlin’s months ago
by Asfan4ever723 on Jan 28, 2009 10:31 AM PST up reply actions
right...chose to forget about that
Komine and an OFer then? Maybe they’ll take Murton back, he’d probably hit better than Fukudome.
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
They've traded Olson so the roster crunch is less of a problem now.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
What's the deal with him?
Is he hurt? He was very good until last year.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
I just remember
That he was filthy in MLB 2K7. Or at least I sucked at hitting…
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
he's got
good stuff – fastball in 91-94mph range and a decent bender, but I think he hit a rough spot last year in spring and never regained his confidence…that and the fact that Lou didn’t so much as think about giving him a second chance. I think he injured his back, also, because he only logged 20 innings last season.
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
I say take a flier
If all we had to give up was a Jeff Gray type then I’d be all for it.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
Steve Blass Disease
He just inexplicably lost the ability to throw strikes last season.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I think its more that
he inexplicably gained the ability to throw strikes in 06 and 07.
Pitching
3M for springer seems pretty close to filling up our spending. Billy knew about A. Brown and needed to fill the bullpen. I’m stoked Dallas is projected at a 4.50 ERA.
Career ERAs:
R. Wolf- 4.26 (career NL)
J. Garland- 4.47(career AL)
Jerome Williams is a rad sleeper who had a very promising career. We can debate sheet’s talent, injury risk, and upside, but what does our contract offer reasonably look like today? 1yr (6 mil?) + option (6+1M buyout?). What do you all think he’s worth?
by greenpaddedgloves on Jan 28, 2009 9:32 AM PST reply actions
That offer would get him to put you on his list
… of course, I mean his “do not call” list.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Rad
I didn’t know people still said ‘rad’ – maybe I am just getting old…
I have a different idea/opinion
Career Minor League Innings Pitched:
Zito 170
Hudson 271
Mulder 198
Anderson 225
Cahill 238
Mazzaro 444
The way pitchers put strain on their arms, why use it up in the Minors? If the mental makeup is there, maybe it’s time to give Anderson & Mazzaro a shot at the rotation. I don’t think Cahill is ready, but Anderson & Mazzaro could be ready right now. They both finished the year in AAA (technically).
Aren't you comparing high school pitchers with college pitchers?
The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.
Well...
Something is up. There’s no way you go into a “Competing Year” w/ the Starting Rotation currently in place. And not a whimper about adding another pitcher.
I’m willing to bet that we’ll see Anderson, Mazzaro, and/or Cahill by June 1st… and maybe Beane is going to treat Spring Training a little bit differently this year, and let 10 Pitchers compete for 4 spots. May the Best 4 win.
Youth is the new Black.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 28, 2009 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
I think one or more basically have to be up by June, I'm not seeing a lot of options for
better or worse. I’d personally have gotten Garland instead of Springer.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
you're probably in the minority on that one
"Sweeney's a white Andre Ethier."--a white, drunk Billy Beane
by Cutthemullet on Jan 29, 2009 4:09 AM PST up reply actions
that last line gets a "+1"
"Sweeney's a white Andre Ethier."--a white, drunk Billy Beane
by Cutthemullet on Jan 29, 2009 4:05 AM PST up reply actions
also
I’m not all that confident about the starting rotation for 2009 when the second starter spot can be up for grabs in ST
"Sweeney's a white Andre Ethier."--a white, drunk Billy Beane
by Cutthemullet on Jan 29, 2009 4:06 AM PST up reply actions
No one should be “confident” about the 2009 Athletics.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 29, 2009 7:12 AM PST up reply actions
My Bad
Read your Staturday last night. Great Diary, but I couldn’t get through the comments. I might be beating the same drum as Foolsh? Well, not the same drum… but I’m part of the Percussion.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 28, 2009 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
Yep
And tell me how those College Innings + Minor League Innings + MLB Innings have faired for Huddy, Mulder, and Zito? Looks like they’ve all broken down… probably due in large part to throwing way too many Pitches/Innings prior to being a Professional Baseball Pitcher, w/ Professional Coaches, while receiving Professional Care on a day-to-day basis.
I think it’s interesting that Management has been leaning more towards drafting High School Pitchers (Cahill, Lansford, Mazzaro, Italiano). Simmons seems to be the only A’s Top Prospect w/ College experience (Besides Relief Pitchers – Demel, Carignan, etc.). Gallagher, Gio, and Anderson all went straight from H.S. to Professional baseball. Braden pitched in college, and he’s already had Surgery on his Shoulder. Huston Street was traded away because he can’t stay healthy, and is probably nearing a shoulder injury. Bad Mechanics are tought at lower levels. Mazzaro, Cahill, and Anderson have all been taught w/in a Professional Organzition, so they are probably a couple years ahead of where Huddy, Zito, and Mulder were when they were 21/22 years old.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 28, 2009 10:38 AM PST up reply actions
Brett Hunter
Tyson Ross. Both of the A’s high-profile pitching pickups last year were out of major-college programs. (And both had questionable mechanics, but that’s why they dropped in the draft, of course.)
Stop trying to draw these broad generalizations out of minimal evidence.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
and Ross
has already spent time on the DL and will likely end up as a reliever
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
Got a cite for that?
I’ve heard nothing of the sort. Relievers don’t get injured any less frequently than starters— the only reason to make a starter into a reliever is that he’s not effective as a starter.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Ross (Lands on DL)
The A’s gambled that Ross is a Freak of Nature, and can survive his Horrid Mechanics w/ his body frame. He’ll either end up as a Reliever or he’ll have to change his Mechanics to stay a starter.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 28, 2009 11:05 AM PST up reply actions
thanks for that
was looking for that same link. I think unorthodox nature of Tyson’s delivery is more worriesome than, say, Lincecum’s.
Also:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/index.php?s=athleticism
Tyson Ross could blossom as a reliever, he might have the team’s hardest fastball, especially in shorter outings.
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
He throws harder than Rodriguez? Wow!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
I hope I'm not misunderstanding you
Because Tim Lincecum’s mechanics are PERFECT. Just because they don’t look pretty like Mark Prior’s (cough) doesn’t mean they’re not good.
Apparently.
You were the only “Nate from AN” I could think of when I got an email from “Nate from AN”
yeah
you misunderstood me. Lincecum has an unorthodox delivery, but I would agree with you, it’s perfect for him, and thus, shouldn’t be an injury concern. Ross, however, has actually been compared (delivery wise) to Prior, who, believe it or not, also had certain unusual aspects to his delivery. I think that’s much more of a concern.
Broad Generalizations
How many College Coaching Staffs in the 90’s counted pitches/track pitch counts? Not very many. Innings? Maybe. That’s not a generalization, that’s a fact.
Ross and Hunter have HORRIBLE MECHANICS – Probably all Self-Taught. I’d be surprised if Hunter or Ross every pitched in the MLB before blowing out their shoulders (I’ve seen Ross’ Mechanics – Just Horrid.)
Mazzaro, Anderson, and Cahill have mechanics taught by Professionals (for the most part), and if their mental make-up says they’re ready, well… they ’re probably close to ready.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 28, 2009 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
So, your argument has changed from "they've thrown too many innings, put them in the majors"
to “They have great mechanics, put them in the majors”? Those are like diametrically opposite arguments. If they have great mechanics, who the hell cares if they’re throwing innings in the minors?
I think you just double-turned yourself.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
by PaulThomas on Jan 28, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Lawyer Speak
If Management thinks they are ready, then maybe they are.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 28, 2009 11:00 AM PST up reply actions
Debate, actually
not that the two activities are unrelated…
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Yeah
Not much into “Debate” myself.
So, every time you have replied to a comment of mine, you’ve disagreed 100% of the time. When you don’t reply to a comment, you agree? :)
by Colorado Fan on Jan 28, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
Silence is consent...
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
You are a defendant's dream judge
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
So, if don’t have Statistical Analysis it’s now considered a “Broad Generalization”.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 28, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
It doesn't have to be statistical analysis. It just has to be based on something.
by thejd44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:39 PM PST up reply actions
Well then...
I’m basing it on Little Leaguers having to count pitches these days.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 28, 2009 2:54 PM PST up reply actions
My view?
Sign a couple of minor-league contracts and go with that. Mulder and some guy who had a good year in AAA last year.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
FWIW
Garland is off the proverbial table
Good news if you ask me, since a). it means we can’t sign him and b). may help to establish a price range for other FAs
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
Who's a comparable player to Garland
that’s still available? Trying to think of comps in terms of the market and not in actually how good (bad) they are and I guess Wolf could be had for a similar deal.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
I think it just cements the fact that a FA start won't be coming to Oakland.
Unless it’s one of the minor league deal, ST Invite sorts -ie Mark Mulder
Ugh
For $6 million Garland is a bargain. If there was any chance the A’s could’ve had him at that price they made a mistake by not doing it.
by thejd44 on Jan 28, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
6 million
AND a second round draft pick, right? I dunno. I think Garland is 4/5 type pitcher at this point. There’s not more potential upside than that. I’d rather take a minor league flier on a cheap health risk guy Mulder who could have the potential to be a decent #2 or #3.
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
Garland was a Type B so no draft pick. $6M for him sounds better than $3M for Springer.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
I totally, utterly disagree with this statement
I’d be surprised if the A’s don’t have five better pitchers than Garland next season, where I’d be shocked if they had seven better bullpen pitchers than Springer. Garland is below the A’s internal replacement level.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
It's not a question of having five better pitchers. It's a question of getting 800 IP or so
out of those five better starters. I’m not seeing that.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
I'd be surprised if at any given point, the A's don't have five better pitchers than Garland
He’s really, really bad at pitching.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
This is a surprising stance for you given your strong opposition to bringing up
Cahill and Anderson. I’d think you’d be willing to put up with a below average innings eater to avoid that.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
I am
I think the A’s have plenty, and the last thing I’d want is them burning $6 million on another one.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
He's really, really average at pitching
His entire career has been just about average – and that’s pitching in a big-time hitter’s park. I’m not a huge fan of the guy, but he’ll certainly not be worse than all the guys the A’s have as starting candidates.
That said, if it’s between Springer and Garland, I’d rather have Springer.
by thejd44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:30 PM PST up reply actions
This is where I am too. I can easily see a worse pitcher getting 10-15 starts
given Duke’s and Gallagher’s health issues and everybody else being somewhat iffy.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions
His 2008 strongly suggests that he's about to fall off a cliff
Declining strikeout rate, rising walk rate— the only thing that kept his numbers vaguely in the realm of major league quality was a sudden and probably unrepeatable jump in his ground ball rate, from below average to well above average. I expect his ERA to be above 5 next season.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
hmmm...declining K rates from a former Cy Young contender
now where have I heard this before?
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 28, 2009 7:34 PM PST up reply actions
heh
"Sweeney's a white Andre Ethier."--a white, drunk Billy Beane
by Cutthemullet on Jan 29, 2009 4:19 AM PST up reply actions
Garland is a former Cy Young contender?
He got one third-place vote once… so he’s not even that good. At least Zito actually sort of deserved the award at the time.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
i just remember a lot of talk about him
because of all the games he “won” in 2005. He finished 6th in voting for the Cy Young, so i’m using contender losely, i suppose. He was good enough that at least someone voted for him.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 29, 2009 7:43 PM PST up reply actions
and i didn't say that he was, at any point, actually GOOD
just that there was talk about him and the Cy Young in the same sentence
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 29, 2009 7:43 PM PST up reply actions
He will be in Arz next year...
So I was thinking more an ERA of 6.5 or so.
"AN, Reducing Work Productivity since 2003", connie mack 11/06/08
agreed there PT.
Garland is not my idea of a great time out.
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
springer wasn't offered arby
also what pt said.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
yeah
More than anything, I just don’t trust Garland. He’s been so damn “up and down” throughout his career – with more downs than ups…
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 10:58 AM PST up reply actions
That's not accurate
With the exception of his 2005, he’s been right around a mid-4 ERA.
by thejd44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:31 PM PST up reply actions
That's nice for him and the defense behind him
Looking at things actually under Garland’s control, he has been bad for a while.
Year xFIP tRA
2005 4.31 4.76
2006 4.82 5.00
2007 5.02 5.65
2008 4.65 5.22
Another guy who will post a 5ish RA/9 isn’t worth anything. You might as well call up a random AAAA starter to fill in.
But he still costs only $3M less than Garland for a third of the innings.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
ok...
and he’s good and Garland is not.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
He's above average for a reliever and Garland is below average for a starter, but
the innings difference makes Garland a better buy for me.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
I seem to remember
reading (at about the time of the Winter Meetings) that Beane was talking to Kevin Correia’s agent about a minor league deal.
Did Correia sign with someone else? Is he any good? Does anyone else remember reading that? Is anyone even listening to me?
"Well that's just like, your opinion, man."
-The Dude
Speaking of SPs
David Wells weighs in on the Joe Torre situation
Wasn’t there a rumor out there that he was looking for a Minor League deal?
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
I wish I was that clever
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
We wish you were too.
I kid!
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
I wish I had the link to that rimshot machine
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
Ask and ye shall receive
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
mulder and rich hill...i'm in
curt young work your magic
Backstop beware.
Or those cardboard cutouts they used in Major League in ST.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Jan 28, 2009 10:29 AM PST up reply actions
It takes a lot of Kool-Aid
to think those seven pitchers are going to give us a full season’s worth of decent innings.
I mean I hope it happens, but we’re talking best case projections from nearly all of them. There’s not a single safe, reliable option among them.
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
It's kinda worrisome that Eveland is the best bet to give 200 IP at a 100 ERA+ or better.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 10:47 AM PST up reply actions
I like Eveland
He just got a little drunk off his early season success and failed to the necessary adjustments when hitters started figuring him out. He showed promise when he came back and I think he has the stuff and and ability to make those adjustments and take it to the next level in 2009. He’s our left handed Joe Blanton.
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
I like Eveland...
But could you imagine this guy pitching in Boston or New York during the playoffs? This guy is so fidgety and spasmodic in low-pressure regular season games. In a playoff setting, he will surely implode into a kinetic whirlwind of sleeve tugs, hat adjustments, and facial twitches.
I am Ray Fosse's infatuations with Clay Wood and high-definition television.
by franks a lot on Jan 28, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
true
that’s something that will hopefully improve with experience, though. Emphasis on hopefully.
I agree, though, the big guy just doesn’t strike you as a big game pitcher.
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 12:05 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe they should replace the bowl of "M&M's"
with a bowl of Ativan’s before every game he pitches.
by somebodyelse on Jan 28, 2009 7:44 PM PST up reply actions
I also got a little drunk off Eveland's early season success
but i was able to make the necessary adjustments
when did we stop using adverbs proper?
by alea iacta est on Jan 28, 2009 1:21 PM PST up reply actions
I don't know about this:
“Duchscherer is a legitimate ace”
I mean that’s just it, he’s really not. Ideally he’d be pitching in the 3rd or 4th spot in the rotation. Yes, he had a tremendous year (partial) last season – but so did Chen Ming Wang a couple of years ago, and I think it’s safe to say that he, too, is more of a #3 or #4 than an Ace, at least that’s what the Yankees thought when they went out a spent a zillion dollars on CC and Burnett. If Duke were to go out and replicate his year from last season sans the hip injury, then maybe we could start discussing the “Ace” label. For now, it looks like the A’s will have to wait for one or more of Anderson, Cahill, or Simmons to fill that spot. When – that’s the big question. I don’t think it will be 2009.
If Duke were to go out and replicate his year from last season sans the hip injury,
we could start discussing which non-Oakland team would be hiring him to be their “Ace” next season…
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
we'll probably
be discussing that, regardless. One doesn’t have to be an a real “Ace” these days to command “Ace” money, nor does one have to demonstrate the ability to stay healthy. See: A.J. Burnett
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 11:05 AM PST up reply actions
And Ben She...
oh.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
well...
yeah, unfortunately for big Ben, unlike Burnett and company, he finished the season on the DL.
you pretty much severely limit your options when you go and do that…
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 11:27 AM PST up reply actions
Ben Shemale?
It’s a “sha-mall-e”
m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!
Play the Odds Here
The odds say that Duke will be in the top 20% of AL starters— when healthy— but that he will miss time.
The odds say that Eveland is probably about what he was last year. Ditto Braden.
The odds say that at least one of the Gallagher-Gonzalez duo— and possibly both— will show marked improvement in their 2nd year as ML starters (remember Mark Mulder)
The odds say that either Cahill or Anderson— and possibly both— will be ready for a mid-season call-up to boost the rotation.
The odds say that if the team stays in contention— and it is near the deadline with a quality starter available— Beane will move to shore up this rotation for the home stretch. We got both Appier and Olivares (and lost Rogers) after all in 1999, which was the last time that a potentially contending A’s team was this sketchy rotation-wise.
I think it will be a halway decent rotation before it’s all said and done— maybe somewhere in the 5-8 range in the league— but it’s not there yet, obviously
Replace "the odds say" with "it is my opinion"
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
No, actually
The only opinion was the final sentence. The other statements are all more likely to be true than false.
How can you say that re: your remarks about Cahill and Anderson's readiness for a call-up?
It simply cannot be quantified.
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
Your first four lines
give us five pitchers. If we interpret “the odds say” as, say, 75% chance of being true for each, then that’s only about 30% that all will be true. Which means that the “odds say” that we’ll be short of five starters from the group you list.
Presumably we fill in the hole with some combination of Outman, Williams, etc.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
How sweet would this team be
with Jake Peavy at the top of the rotation?
A) would he ever approve a trade to Oakland (maybe if they were contending come mid season)
B) would Beane ever be willing to part with one or more of his blue chippers in order to land a Peavy??
1) Peavy doesn’t want to go to the AL
2) He would cost a fortune in Prospects, especially because we have so many.
Dogfood Gangstas
Canned or Dry,
We Neva Die.
aware of that
that’s why I outlined the above A) and B)
and from what I understand, he was willing to contemplate Anaheim, though nothing more came from that, obviously.
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
I think he wants to go to winner more than anything.
“The agent, Barry Axelrod, said in a telephone interview that Peavy "would consider a trade to the Yankees," but insisted that did not mean he would approve such a deal. Axelrod also said Peavy would not rule out a trade to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim”
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/04/peavy-deal-could-come-down-to-location-location-location/
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
Regarding 2
The A’s are one of the few teams that I think could satisfy the Padres’ prospect wishes.
But I don’t know if Peavy would want to play in the AL, or Oakland (because Oakland is never thought of as a guaranteed winner).
by thejd44 on Jan 28, 2009 2:58 PM PST up reply actions
I dont think that the above 4-5 end up being our rotation all year
I think Cahill and Anderson and maybe Mazzaro come up by June, and thats a legitimately good rotation
"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com
What?
You didn’t hear about the terrible boating accident Duke, Eveland, and Gallagher get into on the first road trip in May?
The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.
And in case anyone's wondering why I'm calling no joy
Crews
Olin
Ojeda
The monster at the end of this blog.
Gah, my bad. Being 8 years old when it happened, I had no idea.
But it 2009, right? Freak hoverboard accident?
The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.
if it comes to that.....I would assume we would be under 500
and a dozen games back.
alaska A residing in colorado.
Geren has been quoted
that Mazzaro, Cahill and Anderson will all get a chance to compete for a roster spot in Spring Training.
Dogfood Gangstas
Canned or Dry,
We Neva Die.
Really? Link?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions
Scout.com if my brain cells are functioning properly
Mazzaro is considered most ready right now, which is not to say he’s MLB ready right now.
The monster at the end of this blog.
he's
spent the most time, of the three, in double and triple A. Anderson and Cahill have only spent around 60 innings combined above high A ball (if you don’t include the Olympics).
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions
i was under the impression it was the opposite
order of anderson, cahill and mazaro. but i guess thats good news
"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com
by harendaman365 on Jan 28, 2009 11:59 AM PST up reply actions
Is this it?
Geren said it is conceivable that the A’s could take one of three highly rated pitching prospects with them at the end of the spring should any of Oakland’s other starters incur injuries or fail to impress this spring.
Vince Mazzaro is likely the first consideration, with left-hander Brett Anderson right on his heels and right-hander Trevor Cahill behind him. Anderson and Cahill are Oakland’s two most prized prospects.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 12:04 PM PST up reply actions
Mixed messages?
I read the other day that the A’s consider none of those guys to be MLB ready yet.
I think Geren’s comment was more to the effect that they might turn to those guys in a crisis. Unless someone in the current group gets absolutely shelled, or injured, they’re not really in line for a spot.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
If that's all it is, I doubt Geren would give Lockard that statement for an article.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 1:43 PM PST up reply actions
Per Jeff Fletcher's blog:
What about Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson and Vin Mazzaro? According to assistant GM David Forst, all three go into camp at about the same level, needing some Triple A seasoning.
This is a paraphrase of a conversation they had on the 22nd.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Sounds like one of them or the loser of the Outman/Gonzalez is the first up in case....
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 2:44 PM PST up reply actions
I'm assuming all six will make the roster
and the sixth man will start out as the long reliever. I could be wrong, of course. Maybe they re-sign Lenny DiNardo or something.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I think
Simmons will make it to the show before Mazzaro despite being slightly behind him in the organizational depth chart (purely in terms of progression through the system). He has more polish and control and likely won’t need as much time at AAA as a result.
He was worse in AA though.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions
not much
granted he gave up more hits, but that aside their stats were very similar. Mazzaro’s super low ERA would be an unfair comparison point as Simmons battled a dead arm period after recovering from an early season injury.
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed
For me, he will be this year’s Greg Smith (from the right side of course). After about 10 starts in AAA he will make the decision for the A’s. If he is performing he comes up, if not, he stays down. If he comes up this means the A’s are able to make the proper adjustments with someone in the rotation to fill the long reliever role. If he doesn’t come up we continue to rely on the 5 that are in the majors to start the season.
Simmons seems to have the polish and maturity to handle the promotion and the move shields someone (Outman/Gio, Mazzaro, etc.) from being rushed.
Mazzaro seems like he is just finding his way, if rushed, he may fall flat on his face and never recover.
If the A's can build around Holiday, Furcal, Cust, and maybe call up 2nd baseman Wes Childs at some point in the year, they have a shot to take a weak AL West. -- jameersju post on ESPN.com
by youdownwithOBP on Jan 28, 2009 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
greg smith
albeit with better stuff. Simmons carries the label of “control” pitcher, but that by no means makes him a finesse guy along the lines of Greg Smith. Smith had below average velocity, even for a lefty, where as Simmons’s low 90’s fastball would at the very least be considered average.
And I agree about Mazzaro – I think he’s really coming into his own, but we don’t want him to pull a Windsor when he gets up to the show. I say let him get close to a full season at AAA.
by oakballnack on Jan 28, 2009 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
Simmons has a ML ready fastball, changeup, and has superior command,
but he really needs to add a third pitch to his repertoire. He apparently added a slider this year but I would guess it’s still pretty raw at this point.
by CapgrasDelusion on Jan 28, 2009 1:30 PM PST up reply actions
You are correct
Simmons is more developed as a “pitcher” the others are still “throwers”. I am guessing some of Simmons’ numbers were a result of his doing what they asked him to do to develop rather than just trying to get people out.
If he has his slider working in April in Sacto we will see him vey soon.
Thomas Walker
by Thomas Walker on Jan 28, 2009 2:10 PM PST up reply actions
I wouldn't
call Brett Anderson a mere “thrower” – 27 walks in 105 high A and AA innings at age 20? I think the kid knows “how to pitch”.
madsen/windsor will be my darkhorse picks
theyve had 1-2 seasons of rest and rehab time…both were on the verge of the majors before their issues crept in. once they show they are healthy, they’ll gt a shot and since they are older wont be overwhelmed.
I dunno
Windsor was pretty underwhelming in his ’06 cup of coffee.
and Madsen only has 60 or so AAA innings under his belt, himself…with a 5+ ERA to go with them
Could Cust get us a starting pitcher?
One of the things that’s bugged me about replacing Crosby is that you get nothing in return for him. He would become an expensive bench player who has a slight chance of getting dealt midseason to some desperate team. My thought is rather than potentially overspending to replace Crosby, spend the money on Dunn. Then use Cust + fodder to trade for another starting pitcher. I just don’t know what the market is for Cust and what it could net, but apparently the Blue Jays are interested.
Looking at projections—which I prefer to use as a guide rather the an end-all-be-all for roster construction—I’m kind of skeptical of one that predicts less than 40 homers for Dunn.
Keep in mind I spent two hours looking at some jackass’s Powerpoint, so I may be off here…
If we could someone swing Cust+ for Hallad.....
Ok, I can’t even finish this thought. In my semi-realistic optimistic world, the A’s sign Sheets and Mulder. Sheets’ price has certainly fallen, the only question is how much. If he could be had for 2/20, the A’s need to do it.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
I wasn't really implying Halladay
obviously that would take more than Cust + fodder. Maybe the Jays aren’t the ideal match. Maybe Beane and JP get a third team involved. It’s just an idea, and with all of the ifs already mentioned, what’s a few more?
by scatterbrian on Jan 28, 2009 1:29 PM PST up reply actions
I'm so on the fence with Sheets
he’s been on the DL a bunch of times, but he’s still averaged 27+ starts and 178+ innings in his eight year career. But he seems like that guy who gets hurt when you need him the most.
by scatterbrian on Jan 28, 2009 1:54 PM PST up reply actions
That Blue Jays rumor was bunk...
… there was a rumor circulating a week or so ago that JP Riccardi was interested in Jack Cust. It made no sense at the time, and it continues to make no sense.
The BlowJays have Snider, Wells, Rios, and Lind in LF, CF, RF, and DH, respectively. Cust has nowhere to play in that lineup… they could bring in Cust and bench Lind, but that’s a poor use of resources for a team that’s unlikely to compete anyway. Might as well hold onto your starters, or deal for someone who you will be able to control longer than Cust.
by Uncle Charlie on Jan 29, 2009 3:53 PM PST up reply actions
send murton back to the Cubs
and get Rich Hill – the guy lost in last year, but the guy is a future stud and the cubs are looking to move him because he is out of options – Murton for Hill, sign mulder and were done
Billy Beane is smarter than me
But I still don’t get the reluctance to sign a more established pitcher.
The company line regarding Cahill, Anderson, and Mazzaro has been to repeat “Mulder, Hudson, Zito” repeatedly, as if it were some talisman that guarantees stellar performance. To be sure, the former trio is talented, as was the latter. That doesn’t necessarily translate to similar performance at the big-league level.
Some have said that signing a veteran SP now to a multiple-year contract blocks a lot of talent coming up the pipeline. I suppose that’s true to an extent, but if signing someone now means Eveland gets relegated to long relief somewhere over the next 2 years… meh.
Normally, I’d say this is just a warm-up season for the true contention push in 2010, but then the Holliday trade pokes its head in and says, “hi, I make no sense.” So, like I said: I don’t get it.
Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.
Pitching is pretty overpriced on the market
Garland is making more money than Giambi for providing less utility. Given that there are a certain number of dollars to spend, it looks a lot easier to add wins on the offensive side of the ball right now.
That doesn't explain Springer
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 28, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions
Relievers have come pretty cheap this offseason
Howry, Fuentes, K-Rod, etc. Juan Cruz can’t even find a job, thanks to the draft-pick millstone hanging around his neck.
Starters have been much more “normally costed” this offseason than either relievers or position players. I can dig the argument that there’s no reason to buy the former until you’ve exhausted your useful acquisitions of the latter.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Completely Agree
Signing a more established pitcher doesn’t block Cahill, Anderson, and Mazzaro. Signing a more established pitcher gives us insurance against the impending Justin Duchscherer hip/elbow/leg/back injury and also gives us another option if Mark Redma… I mean, Dana Eveland, decides to continue eating double-cheeseburg… I mean, throwing balls instead of strikes.
Of course, we would have needed an established starter to be interested in Oakland. Randy Johnson would have been the ideal candidate. Derek Lowe would have been another good one. But, neither of those guys ever signaled the slightest intent to sign in Oakland. The guys who are available are not all that interesting to me… Oliver Perez. No thanks. Ben Sheets. Less likely to throw 150 IP this year than Duke.
That said, the ideal set up for the A’s rotiation would be Duke at #2, Gallagher at #3, and Gio, Outman, Eveland, and Braden fighting to fill out #4 and #5… with Cahill, Anderson, Mazzaro, Simmons, etc. getting promoted when they’re ready (in 2010, and beyond).
by Uncle Charlie on Jan 29, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions
My views...what ever as this time of year
hope springs eternal and will see what happens. But if pressed, I have low expectations for that group.
Braden nickname? I just hope he sticks around, based on success, to get a nickname.
alaska A residing in colorado.
Let's trade to get
Aaron Harang back! I’d love to see big’ ole Harangatang back in the green and gold! He’s really come into his own since being traded to the Reds and he’d be a good veteran presence/leader on the staff. I don’t know what the Reds would want, maybe an OFer and a Reliever, say Murton and Andrew Brown or Buck and Marshall? I know he had a down year last year, but he’s been a stud over the past 4 years and in a hitters park to boot.
Those trade offers are ridiculously one-sided
Cincinnati is not likely to donate their ace to the A’s for two bench players.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I'm a Buck-o-phile...
But I don’t find the second trade too ridiculously lopsided. It’s still A’s favored, but not by that much.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Meh
Throw in Cahill and it might fly. If the Reds were feeling generous.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
But only if
They toss in Jay Bruce, too. I mean if we’re getting rid of Buck we have to replace him with someone, right?
RagingHarden: Yeah if you get 20 starts out of me I'll be shocked. Like, I'll wreck my drawers.
by walk off bunt on Jan 28, 2009 6:29 PM PST up reply actions
fellow buck-o-phile!
oh im having images of travis and his beautiful hair as he chases down a flyball…
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
maybe
Buck/Simmons/Mazzaro + Fringe Prospect or something random (Eric Patterson, Murton, David Forst) could get near a fair deal for Harang, given his woes this past season.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 28, 2009 7:39 PM PST up reply actions
given his decline last year and his recent heavy workload
i’d rather just keep those guys, and i definitely wouldn’t trade cahill.
it’s not like harang is cheap either (11-12m a year).
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
oh, i wasn't advocating the move
just trying to practice my theoretical trade theory skils i picked up from theoretical trade theory 101.
I’d take Harang if it meant we stole him from the Reds for one of those players, or a PTBNL, but I wouldn’t straight up give them all that talent for an expensive pitcher. Fair? Yes. Wise? meh, you decide.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 28, 2009 8:11 PM PST up reply actions
Wouldn't that mean having him while he sucked,
trading him for his good years, and then reacquiring him now that he sucks again?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
exactly.
although in all fairness, i’m not sure Harangatang is done yet.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 28, 2009 8:28 PM PST up reply actions
He actually might be a good buy-low candidate if the Reds were actually selling low
The rise in his ERA last year was part BABIP, part HR/FB, and only partly a result of decreased peripherals, which were still quite good.
The thing is, we have no evidence that the Reds are entertaining offers for him. They don’t even appear to be rebuilding— though to be honest I don’t have a clue what they’re really up to.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
neither do they
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
lol
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 29, 2009 6:36 AM PST up reply actions
Ryan Sweeney then
Buy low on Harang and sell High on Sweeney – I don’t think Sweeney is ever going to be much more than a .275 10HR type guy. We could sell high with people focusing on his inflated batting average from last year. I agree, I doubt the Reds would entertain offers for Harang right now, but he could potentially be a good fit, and if he’s healthy, he could eat a lot of innings, something we could desperately use in this rotation.
Dusty Baker
used him in a strange and excessive way that I can’t recall exactly and after that he went downhill. I expect he’ll have a good season.
That doesn't sound like Dusty.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Can we stop saying that Sean Gallagher
pitched a great game in his debut?? The end result was good, but there were 4 balls hit that would have gone out in a day game. Many balls were hit very hard and his outing could have very easily looked a lot like most of his others.
Even if the A’s picked up a legit #1 stud, the pitching would still be questionable in 2009.
I love Dike, but he is best suited to be a #2 guy IF he can be healthy.
Gallagher/ Eveland might be OK as #3/#4 but even moved down a notch there would still be questions about what they can do in 2009.
Gonzales/Outman/Braden as #5 would be a question mark, let alone with 2 of the 3 trying to hold down the #4 AND #5 spots.
2010 and beyond looks promising, but this rotation has a very low probability of producing a team that can finish above .500 IMO.
We can stop saying Gallagher pitched a game first game,
if we can also stop saying he isn’t good/ready/special just because he couldn’t get hitters out with a 22-year old tired arm. Honestly, he’s among the least of my worries.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Having a tired arm that doesn't get hitters out in the middle of the season worries me.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 29, 2009 6:44 AM PST up reply actions
he had a tired arm?
he was a workhorse in the minors, no injury history.
was it against texas, the batter stepped out mid delivery and he got injured?
i’ll chalk it up to a 22 yr old going through growing pains since the stuff is obviously there. plus hopefully no lingering arm issues
by Asfan4ever723 on Jan 29, 2009 8:48 AM PST up reply actions
Well he did go on the DL with a shoulder problem last year.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 29, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions
I think "tired arm" is not a good description of the problem
because players get it at all times of the year. Brandon Webb had it in May. Nate Robertson had it in June. Etc etc.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
"tired act" then?
It was after his start in Minnesota, in which he valiantly limited the damage to 10 ER, that he admitted the ball “felt like a feather” when he threw it and his shoulder was “tired” – probably a euphemism for “sore” but I think the notion was that it didn’t “hurt” so much as it felt weak.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sure, I'm just saying it's not related to fatigue in the sense of having recently pitched a lot of innings
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I'll give him a pass for last year
he wasn’t even that bad, in all honesty. I’d like to see what he does in a full year in 2009 before I start making decisions on his ceiling and what he will do in the future. Plus, if he sucks or gets traded or gets sent down, Gallagher’s Watermelons will have to change his name.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 29, 2009 6:50 AM PST up reply actions
Has anyone brought up Looper?
He would be my first choice over Sheets or Hill. I would even go 2yr/12mil+ team option yr for 8 with a 2mil buyout. 3yrs 20 mil and you solve your rotation problems. I would still like to see them sign Mulder to a MLD.
"AN, Reducing Work Productivity since 2003", connie mack 11/06/08
Agreed
I don’t trust any of those St. Louis pitchers without Duncan’s magical pitching dust sprinkled on them.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
