The Next Holliday-esque Trade
by notsellingjeans on Jan 23, 2009 5:00 PM PST
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PrintIf there's one problem with having a very deep farm system, it's the difficult 40-man roster decisions that eventually have to be made. All around the diamond, the A's have a very good "internal replacement level," - the combined dropoff between their ML starters at each position and their AAA counterparts is smaller than perhaps any other team.
That mass of mediocrity has value. You hate Jack Hannahan, but he was significantly better last year than Andy Marte, Mike Lamb, and a few other guys who got 200+ at bats at the hot corner last year. And he wasn't the team's top choice. It's depressing that Gregorio Petit and Cliff Pennington aren't good enough to supplant Bobby Crosby...and yet all three are better than Tony Pena or Luis Rivas, who each wasted 200+ at-bats last year for their teams. All three A's shortstops could be any team's backup MIF.
That type of depth and high internal replacement level is the reason I never worry about the current incarnation of the A's ever being a 90-loss team, which is something to be proud of on a relatively small budget in the AL. But ultimately, the team probably needs a 4- or 5-win player or two if they want more to boast about more than just AAA championships.
The Matt Holliday trade has provided tthe team with one, and it also freed up two 40-man roster spots, which prevented the team from having to give away a player for free.
However, there is a strong chance that Holliday will be gone in a year, perhaps to fill the left field void for the Yankees at the cool price of $140M+, and once again the team will be without a 4-5 win player.
And next year, the 40-man roster crunch will be much greater, as Lansford, Italiano, Mazzaro, Andrew Bailey, Jason Fernandez, and chris carter are all Rule 5 Draft eligible for the first time. And although Cahill, Simmons, and Anderson won't be Rule 5 eligible yet, there's a chance that any or all of those three might've had their contract purchased by the end of the '09.
That's nine players - 22.5% of the 40-man roster!
The point is this: acquiring the very best AAAA players (Hannahan, Rajai Davis, Joe Dillon, Chen, etc.) and prospect depth for the future is great. It really is. But at some point, that depth needs to be consolidated into a more valuable asset, like Holliday, for two reasons: 1. Other than homegrowing a truly elite player, it's the only way for the A's to acquire one, and 2. It avoids the team being forced to give up on 40-man roster guys they still have hopes for.
So, although many AN readers hate the Holliday trade - can't stand it, don't understand it, or both - for the sake of the fanpost, please consider for a moment the idea that it could be considered again next offseason - when the 40-man roster talent crunch is worse than ever, and the team's lone 5-win player (Holliday) is likely gone.
Which player could be next offseason's one-year rental?
Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy, who will be due to make $6-7 million in his final year of arbitration in '10, makes sense on a variety of levels.
- His eventual replacement, Alcides Escobar, just turned 22 and completed an impressive season in AA. The Brewers were publicly unwilling to put Hardy on the trade block this offseason, but if Escobar demonstrates his readiness at the AAA level in '09, it'll be much easier for Milwaukee to hand over the reigns to him for the '10 season.
- Clearing $6-7 million in payroll will be attractive to the Brewers, who were unable to re-sign Sabathia and Ben Sheets this offseason in part because of a hard payroll set at $80-85M. Next season will require even more creative juggling for Milwaukee, which has $35.9M committed to just four players in 2010: Jeff Suppan, Bill Hall, Prince Fielder, and David Riske. Tack on the raises for Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks in their final year of arbitraton, and that's $45 million - roughly 55% of the payroll - devoted to six players. And that's with gaping holes in center field, starting pitcher, and closer/bullpen, all of which can't be filled internally for the Brewers by 2010.
- The A's need to upgrade at shortstop goes without saying, and Crosby's $5.25M will be off the books as a bonus. Plus, a one-year rental of Hardy will give the A's an opportunity to evaluate how he responds to the AL before committing to a lucrative free agent deal. Born and raised in Arizona, I'm going to make a leap and hope that Hardy is a "West Coast guy" and would consider re-signing in Oakland after the season. Hardy's also not a Scott Boras client, which makes signing him to an extension more realistic.
- With so much payroll committed to mediocrity like Suppan and Hall, the Brewers will have to fill a few of those leaky holes (CF, bullpen) with league-average, cost-controlled players which currently don't exist in their farm system. Which is where the A's come in:
I think a J.J. Hardy/Oakland A's swap after the '09 season starts with either Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck, or Aaron Cunningham - keep in mind, you have to take whatever you think Hardy is "worth" right now, and subtract one year of value, since he's being traded only a year prior to free agency in this hypothetical. If the A's can provide the Brewers with several cost-controlled years of league-average production in CF (or perhaps right field in Buck's case, with Hart pushed to center), that's the starting point that puts J.J. Hardy into conversation.
Here's where it gets hazy, but I also think there needs to be a productive major league reliever in this package - Casilla or Brown, perhaps - and a B or B- prospect or two. Assuming they build value in the coming season rather than lose it, let's say Henry Rodriguez and Javi Herrera.
This gives the A's an elite 4-5 win player, shores up their greatest hole, and helps the team clear 2-3 more spots on the 40-man roster for the pending roster crunch in '10.
I'm sure the Brewers would love to have a starting pitcher in that package, but they're not getting anyone better than Greg Smith if they're getting anyone. That rules out Gallagher/Eveland/Gio/Braden/Outman, which is my prediction for the Opening Day '10 rotation (with some more talented pitchers knocking at the door, obviously).
Thanks to the team's terrific depth in the outfield right now, the '10 outfield still looks ok even after that trade and Holliday's potential exodus. Let's say Hardy was acquired in exchange for Sweeney, Brown, H-Rod and Herrera. The '10 outfield might be Cunningham/Buck/Cust, with some combo of Rajai Davis/Denorfia/Murton/Copeland providing defense/platoon options off the bench and Giambi DHing most of the time in the final year of his contract.
What do you think, AN? Would you want to acquire J.J. Hardy a year from now, and if so, what package would it take to get him? Do you think that the Holliday trade is not a crazy abberration, but instead a tactic that Beane might try to use again in the future to take advantage of the organization's depth?
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Good writeup NSJ
I would rather not loose any of those three OFs. Also we gave alot for one year of Holliday I really don’t think it is that good of an idea to do that again for someone not as good as Holliday. Hardy is real good but I would rather give up that kind talent for a SS we can keep for years and there is no reason for Hardy to sign a long term deal with us rather than try free agency where he could get more.
"Whether you think you can, or you think you can't, either way, YOU'RE RIGHT !"
The part of the trade you are not counting...
is player #41, 42, 43 that we would like to keep in our farm system but instead get taken by another team in the rule 5 draft. I am not sure who we would consider player #39 & 40 on the 40-man right now, but we probably would not have them, if the Holliday trade had not happened. It opened two more roster spots. That was one of the major tennents of NSJ’s writeup.
Crosby has already cleared waivers
that means we can send him down safely, right?
Or am I getting mixed up with something else?
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
I don't think it matters, due to his "years of service" rights,
but then I’m almost always wrong about these things.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Even though Crosby has options remaining (options are what allows a team to send a player down "safely")
With 5 years big league service time Bobby has the power to refuse the demotion. The only thing the A’s could do in that situation is take it in the chin or release Crosby.
The monster at the end of this blog.
This is correct
Crosby cannot be forcibly removed from the A’s roster without receiving the remainder of his salary. That money is gone unless another team assumes it.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
So if we did release him
and another team did sign him, would they have to take on his salary then? Or would they just sign him for league minimum and we’d still be on the hook for the difference?
Different scenario: If we release him and no one else claims him, and then a few months later we decide we want him back, can we put him back on the roster since we’re still paying him? Or would he have the right to say no and still get paid?
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
"League minimum" and "no," respectively
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
{snerk}
take it in the chin or release Crosby
Shouldn’t that be “and”?
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
I'm not great at evaluating trades, etc, so here's a question
what does this trade look like at the trade deadline this year? say for whatever reason (injuries, general poor luck), the brewers are not in contention, but the A’s kinda are – would would it take? more, obviously, but what?
Is Sweeney still an option, if he’s playing well for the A’s as the every day (mostly) centrefielder? Presumably, if the A’s are in contention, he must not be somewhat productive.
thoughts?
when did we stop using adverbs proper?
by alea iacta est on Jan 23, 2009 5:43 PM PST reply actions
Deadline Deal
I like that line of thinking… this would mean that Chavvy, Cust, Giambi, and Holliday are hitting on all cylinders.
A’s would probably have to trade Brett Anderson or Trevor Cahill, though. I mean, if you could do Gio, Cardenas, and Henry Rodriguez… that would be nice.
by Colorado Fan on Jan 24, 2009 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
I really like the idea of a deadline deal
It’ll probably take a lot to get Hardy but if we could resign him then the team would be much better. It would be fun to be on the good end of one those deals as we hopefully make a playoff run. The only thing is that I would really like to keep Sweeney. I loved he and Gonzo last year, I thought they we’re the beginning of the future, and I don’t want to lose them both.
by T-Money on Jan 24, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions
Love It
Plus, whether or not you like this trade, it’s a really good sign of organizational health and depth that we are going to have a 40 man roster crunch. Most teams don’t find themselves in such a situation b/c it’s so hard to have such a good and deep farm system.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jan 23, 2009 5:54 PM PST reply actions
This is a nice scenario, however
I could moreso see this happening at the trade deadline than at next year’s offseason. Obviously, I’m assuming the A’s are contending for this trade to happen, and Milwaukee would have to not be playing well.
If that was the case, and Crosby or whoever else is not playing well at SS, this trade is what could possibly put the team over the top IF we’re competing come July…
I think it would be worth pursuing at the deadline even if the A's are out of contention
The shortstop issues will still be present next year regardless of whether the A’s contend this year or not, so if Milwaukee is interested in dealing Hardy at the deadline I think it’s worth it for the A’s to go get him.
I don't have the numbers to back it up, but I dont see how Milwaukee contends this year
Cubs and Cardinals to compete with and a worsened pitching staff. Gallardo would have to dominate.
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
They do need a big year from Gallardo, but I don't see why they wouldn't get one, barring a
freak injury like last year. They also need another starter and a bullpen though.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 24, 2009 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
and their total staff ERA was lower than their FIP
suggesting that they will probably regress some anyways.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 25, 2009 8:24 AM PST up reply actions
Or that their defense is good
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 25, 2009 10:02 PM PST up reply actions
oh ya, that too
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 25, 2009 10:26 PM PST up reply actions
Doubt it
Cameron is still solid, Hart mediocre, Braun likewise. I don’t know who they plan to play at third but if it’s Hall, they’re not doing themselves favors there. Fielder and Weeks are horrible, and Hardy isn’t great either.
CHONE projects the lot of them at -11 runs with the glove.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
That should be -10
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I’d have to say there isn’t much I agree with. Cameron very good, Hart very good over his time with the team other than the last half of the season, Braun is fast, has a gun for an arm and I didn’t see him misplay a single ball last season. He plays deep though. Hall is a natural infielder with good hands and a strong accurate arm. Fielder isn’t anywhere near as bad as “horrible” and Weeks regularly makes tough plays and mixes in the occasional boot of an easy one. He’s average I’d say. Hardy is excellent.
If you look at runs allowed they’re pretty good defensively.
If you look at CHONE projections they're -10 runs...
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
You can’t prevent runs with anything other than pitching, defense or drugging the other team’s water supply.
I disagree
You can prevent runs by getting lucky. You just can’t plan to do so in advance.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Teams can absolutely get lucky for a whole season at a time
There’s just absolutely no way to predict which ones will do so.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Not just lucky, but lucky defensively and that is with a lot of average to awful defensive players according to your analysis. Compound it with the team using basically one good pitcher most of the season as CC arrived late and Sheets was either out or pitching hurt.
Whether a team has good pitchers or not
does not affect whether they overperform their FIP. That’s the whole point of FIP— it’s supposed to be the midpoint of a player’s performance range.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I think it could happen at the trade deadline this season...
provided a few things happen:
1) Alcides Escobar performs really well at AAA in the 1st half of the season
2) Both the A’s and Brewers are in contention
3) Crosby still sucks,
4) The Brewers still need pitching
5) The A’s young pitchers are performing well in the 1st half.
The Brewers’ rotation and bullpen look unimposing. It will likely be their offense that keeps them competitive early next season. But if they’re in it at the break and look to make a short-term deal to improve the pitcing staff for the stretch run, I could see them even go after Duchscherer in return for Hardy. Of course, if the A’s were competitive it would be tough to lose Duchscherer, but if Gallagher/Eveland/Gio are throwing fairly well and/or Mulder joins the team and is effecitve and/or Cahill/Anderson/Mazzaro are ready mid-season, it might just work out that way.
Then again, the two teams might also be able to build package around any number of the young starters at the trade deadline as well.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
if they'd do a deal based on Duke-Hardy (repeat: "based on"), there's no way Beane doesn't pull the trigger
Also: Your list only included 4 conditional items.
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
Why not try now?
Are the brewers not looking to deal?
by cantheydoit???yup! on Jan 23, 2009 6:15 PM PST reply actions
The Brewers aren't looking to deal
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Brewers outfield
Braun is signed long term. Hart has 3 years of arby, but i wouldn’t be shocked if at some point he was traded. Perhaps irrationally, I hold out hope that Gamel will be able to handle 3rd, but if not its 1st or OF. The same numbers people who say there is no chance for Gamel in the infield want to move Weeks to CF. I think its unlikely but that’s the advice from the Neyer, Law et al crowd. Cole Gillespie is not far from ready and will play AAA. Lorenzo Cain will play AAA as well and is projected as a CF. A guy I wish would get a shot, Hernan Iribarren may make the bench this year, but if not he’s out of options. He can play CF. There are several guys like Lenny Dykstra’s kid, Komatsu and Gindl in the lower levels.
I’m just a Joe with my backside planted on the sofa, but I doubt they want an outfielder other than a premium prospect, probably left handed but even then maybe not.
In the bullpen, they’ve got some cost controlled guys like Villaneuva and Stetter, a couple other guys and some promising guys nearing ready in the minors. I can’t really say what they think, but I don’t think its as much of a need as the conventional view everyone has from reading about Gagne and Turnbow and others who are gone.
If it were me, I'd sign Hardy long term and not keep Fielder, Weeks or Hart.
They’ve already lost Sheets. Gamel can play 1B. Escobar and Hardy can man 2B/SS. They’d need some solution or other in CF/RF from FA or prospects or trade.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 23, 2009 10:46 PM PST up reply actions
Agree on Weeks
His wrist problems have turned what was once a potent bat into mush.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Agreed
I’d be looking to move Fielder by next offseason at the latest. Ridiculously overrated player, and relative to the fact that he’s still in arbitration, overpaid to boot.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
FIelder is a Boras client
so there may be no decision to be made. Weeks is still cheap. He’s viewed as bad because the expectations were so high, but there haven’t been ready alternatives to plug in. Hart turned down a long term deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got dealt. He did just have an ugly 2nd half of a season so his value isn’t probably as high as it was. The Braves were just asking about him though.
What is it about the Braves and outfielders with no plate discipline?
You’d think they’d have taken a lesson from Francoeur.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Villanueva
would actually be a good starter for them… they should move him to the rotation to replace sheets/sabathia and look for bullpen help.
Cust is the new Jaha.
by johnjahafanclub on Jan 24, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
F*%k it!
Why wait? Let’s go get Hardy right now! Yeeeoooow!
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
When you refer to a MIF,
you mean a mother you’d like to do what with?
My other reaction is, how frustrating must it be for Brewers fans, that the four players leading their payroll crunch include Jeff Suppan, Bill Hall, and David Riske? Oops.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
So he's done when Hardy becomes a FA. That's good timing.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 23, 2009 10:47 PM PST up reply actions
Is Hardy the best candidate for a Holliday-esque trade?
I like the framework of the deal, although I’m unsure as to the value of the prospects involved – I’ll let someone else who is more familiar with the minor leagues decide if it’s too much to give up or not.
What I’m curious about is if Hardy is the best player to target. I understand his circumstances in Milwaukee and the position he plays makes him a logical target for the A’s and he’s been discussed around here the entire offseason. I wonder though if there is some collective tunnel vision around AN regarding which players would be good/possible additions to the team? It seems like the same names keeping getting brought up (Hardy as a case in point) and I don’t know if that’s because they really are the best candidates to add to the team or if it’s because they’ve been mentioned so much that everybody just automatically thinks about them and no one else.
I don’t have other players to suggest (not at the moment anyway), but if the conversation has moved away from offseason 2009 to deadline 2009/offseason 2010, maybe it’s time to look at some new possibilities.
Just to be clear, I like the idea of getting Hardy and using organizational depth in the way notsellingjeans has suggested, I’m just thinking out loud whether there are other candidates for this kind of deal that haven’t been mentioned yet.
Grover, among others, has exhaustively covered the SS options in their various stages of availability
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
And I think the conclusion that that thread produced about Hardy to the A’s is pretty much dead on. Its Hardy for starting pitching with the players to be decided by a cage match between Beane and Melvin.
In that case I'm in favor of a deal. I don't see why the Brewers would do it though.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 25, 2009 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
The Brewers probably don't want to
but starting pitching is what they need. They have one high upside prospect expected in the majors in the near future. The question is what starting pitching.
This is a list of the best players with expiring contracts after 2010 to season:
(That’s what I’m defining as next offseason’s potential Holliday-esque trade):
J.J. Hardy
Derek Jeter
Roy Halladay
Brandon Webb
Josh Beckett
Joe Mauer
Carl Crawford
Aramis Ramirez (player option for ’11, team option for ’12).
Hardy will be 28 during that offseason. Obviously Mauer, who will be 27 at that point, would be an incredible prize too, but it would be heresy for the Twins to trade him. There are Twins bloggers who will tell you they hope he’s going to sign a $14M a year extension, but I think $20M+ annual offers from the Yankees and Red Sox will be too enticing to pass up.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 24, 2009 4:32 AM PST up reply actions
Jeter could be a good one year solution at SS. I hear his defense is declining though.
Maybe he’d be willing to shift to 3B for days when Chavez isn’t available. Plus they’d probably get draft picks. I guess he might accept arb though.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 24, 2009 6:51 AM PST up reply actions
Ahhh
There is no way Jeter ever leaves NYC. I doubt he will ever reach free agency.
ALSO….Jeter doesn’t have the range to play SS…even now he is suspect, a year from now he should be playing 3B…
Everytime you use RBI as anything other than an indicator of where a guy is hitting in his team's lineup, another cute snuggly animal dies a horrible death.
- PT
Conveniently
Their 3B is (and has always been) a better SS than Jeter.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
Conveniently!
Everytime you use RBI as anything other than an indicator of where a guy is hitting in his team's lineup, another cute snuggly animal dies a horrible death.
- PT
Jeter has a no-trade clause and a ridiculous salary
plus he’s Mr. Yankees. I’d literally fall out of my chair to read he was traded anywhere.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Right. He has 5 and 10 rights.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 25, 2009 4:45 AM PST up reply actions
OK
Of that group (aside from Hardy), Crawford and Mauer would be the only ones that would be worth trading for. As you say, Mauer seems highly unlikely. I would like to have Crawford, but his reputation might be greater than his actual value making a reasonable trade difficult.
I think the Twins will make Mauer the franchise player
and I think he’ll give them enough of a discount to do it— I expect him to attach an extension for something like 6/$90M to his current contract.
Keep in mind, he’s a local player.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I certainly hope this happens.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 25, 2009 4:35 AM PST up reply actions
6/$90 would be an incredible discount...
Considering that the Red Sox and Yanks would be willing to offer him $150M just a year later.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 25, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
Would they?
Keep in mind, he’s highly unlikely to be playing catcher at the end of that contract.
I suppose the Yankees might, but Epstein is much too smart for that.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
He's an excellent defender right now...
and he’ll be a free agent at age 27. He’s also tremendously athletic, which means he’s less likely to fall off a cliff early.
An seven-year contract would take him to age 34. I don’t think he’s “highly unlikely” to be playing catcher at 34. I think he’ll still be quite capable at that age.
Seven years, $150M = $21.4ish million per. That’s very doable for the Sox or the Yanks, and it prices out the Twins, because they can’t give 1/4 of their payroll to one guy.
He’s THE prize of the 2010 FA class. I doubt he’ll be willing to extend with the Twins for $14M per.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 25, 2009 1:51 PM PST up reply actions
He is very tall and already has thigh and knee problems,
as do most tall players who attempt to play a position which requires that much squatting. And hamstring injuries recur with great frequency, as anyone who’s followed Milton Bradley’s career could tell you. Or Nomar Garciaparra’s.
Both good athletes, both capable (when they were healthy) of playing defense-first positions well. Nomar’s a hollow shell at age 35. Bradley’s already a DH at 30.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Nomar's career trend is suggestive of steroid use
Bradley has never been healthy his whole life, and he’s a ridiculous comp.
Sure, we could go back and forth – Varitek’s a tall guy who’s still playing catcher at age 37.
The point is, Joe Mauer probably isn’t “highly unlikely” to be playing catcher at age 34.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 25, 2009 2:41 PM PST up reply actions
Why didn't we go after Counsell this offseason?
Sure, the guy’s bat is steadily sinking towards atrocious, but he’s still probably going to be a win, or so, upgrade over Crosby (assuming Crosby plays like last year). One has to figure that Counsell would come in on the cheap, and he provides a lot of defensive flexibility, especially since his 2b defense is pretty darned good (even better than his SS) and his 3b defense is gold glove worthy. This is not to say that the aforementioned positions all happen to be areas where we have significant injury risks. It’s not that I’d want Counsell to start anywhere but SS for us, but if he was cheap, he should woulda been nice.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
P.S.
I’d trade for Hardy if the starting point was Sweeney. Sweeney is good, but Hardy is a solid SS. If we can use Cunningham in CF, then I say go for it, now or later.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 23, 2009 7:44 PM PST up reply actions
Are you sure Counsell would be an upgrade?
The last two seasons he has hit .226 and .220, slugging .309 and .302. And he’ll turn 39 in August.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
yes, like i said his offense is borderline Vizquel-esque
BUTTT his defense is pretty darned good. I’m talking marginal wins here, as in a 1 win upgrade, based solely on defense. My point is that at a cheap price, he’d be a great fill-in for 3b/2b in case something goes wrong with Ellis or Chavvy (a likely occurence between the two of them) as well as a possible upgrade, or at least a time share with Crosby. Maybe it doesn’t make sense, but I’m hoping that Beane at least kicked the tires on the idea.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 23, 2009 8:34 PM PST up reply actions
I'm just thinking that the combination of Counsell's age,
and the possibility that Crosby’s defensive downturn wasn’t a trend, might make the two pretty comparable as defensive SSs in 2009. And offensively? With his new McGrosby stance, ol’ Bobby could very well hit 70 HRs.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Counsell would have to downturn a lot
and Crosby would have to upturn a lot before they would be equal defensively.
Counsell probably wouldn’t be any worse than Crosby; the problem is he won’t be much better either and would eat up a roster spot for no obvious purpose.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Bare?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 23, 2009 10:48 PM PST up reply actions
Aw man!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 23, 2009 10:54 PM PST up reply actions
all-ugly-mechanics platoon
Eckstein in the field, Counsell at the plate.
Rincon pitching.
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
what did mechanics ever do to you?!
fixing a car is NOT a crime!
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 25, 2009 8:27 AM PST up reply actions
Hey JediLeroy, how're "things"?
Last I heard, ok but tenuous. Hope the news is good.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Things are pretty good.
Thanks for asking. I just made a post on my blog detailing the situation. I have a link in my profile if you want details.
au contra ire
Waiting till next year to trade for Hardy is somewhat pointless
because then Holliday will most likely be gone. Either trade for him now, or make sure you can get him with an extension.
"I think people in this state like BOTH teams," proclaims Nick Aliotti, the Ducks' defensive coordinator. "Except for our hard-core fans, I don't think most Duck fans would have been terribly upset to see Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl."
Another reason he needs to go.
the Brewers have no desire to trade him now
They’ve stated that publicly. And Hardy has confirmed it.
Also, what makes trading him attractive at all to the Brewers is the unique situations that present themselves after the ‘09 season: Hardy’s escalating salary, the fact that his replacement is finally ready (which he isn’t now), and the team’s need to clear payroll.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 24, 2009 4:36 AM PST up reply actions
Here's some stuff to complicate things
1- We’re the Oakland A’s, the season never goes as planned players wise. (Surprisingly we do very good calculating what our season record will be), we might end up having a great SS at the end of the season and terrible pitching, who knows.
2- I’m pretty sure JJ Hardy will have a down year, the lack of wins the Brewers will have will end up hurting them.
3- Hardy is very well protected in that lineup, I’m pretty sure Crosbys numbers would be way better (pleas don’t kill me AN) if he were in that line up.
4- The market for SS will greatly increase next year, this year has been just terrible and has lead people to think of some desperate measures in order to get a SS.
5- SS is a huge liability for a lot of teams in the league, the demand for Shortstops is crazy, we would be better of looking for improvements in other areas.
Sorry if any of this is crap, I’m a 19 year old Mexican Tar Heel trying to learn the game of baseball
Clear its radiance shine...
The only issue I take with that is I doubt if he were in a better lineup,
Crosby could suddenly lay off of a slider away.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
he wasn't replying to anyone
well, he was replying to NSJ
"Sweeney's a white Andre Ethier."--a white, drunk Billy Beane
by Cutthemullet on Jan 24, 2009 9:33 AM PST up reply actions
I responded to his 1st post
But it was his 2nd comment (below) that I was referring to. Borderline case that might have been better as a reply to his original post. Hey, he threw out the “be gentle” flag… I was trying to be helpful.
The monster at the end of this blog.
"grover the merciful"
has a nice ring to it doesn’t it?
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
It does play well in the Mid-West
But West coast and East coast markets want more pizzazz.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Not pizzazz,
pizza. We want more pizza.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
definitely not Piazza
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 25, 2009 8:28 AM PST up reply actions
2- The Brewers have something like a 85 win pythagorama thingy. Hardy is also a guy who has improved fairly steadily.
3- He didn’t hit well when Yost stuck him in front of the pitcher. He hit great in the 2 hole. That would seem to support your point.
4 and 5- I think that’s why he doesn’t sign long term.
4 and 5
These are the same reasons that I suspect Mauer wouldn’t sign long-term, despite his local ties to the Twins.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 25, 2009 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
Another thing I would like more AN readers to think is
To compare the 2008 first half team to the current one, the roster was barely decent yet we managed to compete pretty good. Comparing what we have now to our final 2008 roster would be a mistake, we simply decided to take 3 months off in order to rebuild or farm system.
Clear its radiance shine...
It was rather remarkable how the team hung in there until the ASB
Smoke, mirrors, grit, and “intangibles” maybe, but they did it. Nice to have you on board btw, Mr. AHeel.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Great, just what we need
another Tar Hell fan who isn’t Mexican enough.
:)
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
I didn't give a damn about the Tar Heels
but after studying here for only 3 months I started to love the university, it’s amazing over here
Clear its radiance shine...
Tarhells suck!
signed,
NC State Wolfpack Grad
this
"Not in your wildest alcoholic nightmare would you ever imagine such events unfolding!" Bill King
by Buck Turgidson on Jan 24, 2009 9:56 PM PST up reply actions
hey, i like it when Duchscherer goes to the mound
but towards the end of last year, it wasn’t often enough…
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 25, 2009 9:16 PM PST up reply actions
"the team hung in there"
with good starting pitchers. Beane traded them away like an idiot.
i assume you're calling him an idiot
for trading away a guy who may never pitch a full season because he is never healthy and a guy who’s era was in 20 starts with us last year was 4.96. and it’s not like he got anything in return.
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
You assume correct sir.
the same two guys who, after being traded, one guy went 5-1 and his team was 9-3 in games he pitched – team made playoffs. The other went 6-0 and team went 12-4 in games he pitched – team won world series.
well i disagree with you
(assuming you think it was a bad trade). harden was/is/always will be injury prone. his status for this season is in doubt. his future will always be in doubt in my opinion. their records are irrelavent and the fact that their teams made the playoffs are irrelavent as well. we got quite a haul in return for those two guys.
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
We could've used them in the second half of last season.
Beane should’ve picked up some major league ready offense at that time as we were still in the playoff hunt.
I really don't think it would have mattered, to tell you the truth jdub.
The A’s were already pretty beat up and Beane already knew the team couldn’t compete with the Angels over the long haul of the season.
Mostly, I’m pissed that Rich Harden kept breaking our hearts year after year, unable to keep himself out of the medical unit. I look forward to seeing a full season of a rested Sean Gallagher with a new, healthy, and improved offense behind him. Go A’s! :)
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
we overachieved like crazy in the first half
those two guys would not have made us a playoff team, and picking up offensive players could have jeopardized our future.
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
I hear ya...
but I’ll have to, respectfully, disagree with everything you just said. The A’s Underachieved in the first half, those two guys could’ve (and have in the past) made us a playoff team, and (with some tact of course) picking up some offense wouldn’t jeopardize the A’s future.
i respectfully disagree as well
but i guess well never really know what would have happened had we gone for it
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
picking up some offense wouldn’t jeopardize the A’s future
I know you can’t post the text of the A’s internal emails which you were cc’ed on saying that the team could have gotten offensive upgrades at no cost to the future, but could you email them to me privately?
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
The starting pitching was awesome in the 1H.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 23, 2009 10:49 PM PST up reply actions
who is the team’s backup MILF?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
In former Soviet Union, MILF Island sets TiVo for *you*
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
I seem to be going through a less-mean phase...
I’m all for trading for Hardy, but I think its a waste of time trying to look a year ahead to gauge the cost of a deal.
Having said that (and reminding myself that I’m an A’s fan and I should root for lopsided deals) the Brewers would have to be fools to take the package you offered a year from now. Part of that is I think Sweeney is a 4th OFer when all is said and done (and Buck doesn’t fill a Brewers’ need) but mainly your 2nd and 3rd pieces are way too low. You have drastically lowered the price the A’s paid to land Holliday while attempting to acquire a commodity almost as rarified… a SS who can actually hit the ball!
The monster at the end of this blog.
That package is severely short of what even 1 year of Hardy would likely require
unless those players make quantum leaps forward this year. Much more likely is that they move backward. You’ve got a head case, a basket case, a league-average outfielder, and a total cipher at this point coming off a shoulder injury. Not exactly a chicken dinner, if you catch my drift.
I fully expect that the A’s will burn through enough players in the course of the 2009 season that any anticipated “roster crunch” will fail to come to fruition.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Paul, did you get my email?
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 24, 2009 4:43 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, didn't have time to respond yet though
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Well written piece and I hate to nitpick but
Greg Smith is a better pitcher than at least two of the 2010 projected starters you mention (Gallagher/Eveland/Gio/Braden/Outman).
I kind of doubt that, actually.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
eh potatoes tomatoes
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 24, 2009 9:30 AM PST up reply actions
How well does Willy Aybar play SS?
He looks to be a league average hitter with league average defense at 3b and 2b, but I have no clue how he rates at SS defense. I wonder if he could fit our plans at all…
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 24, 2009 10:06 AM PST reply actions
Am I alone?
in being the only person that doesn’t want to give up Sweeney? I think he’s going to continue to be a nice hitter and decent defender.
I’d be more willing to give up Buck (provided he makes a case this season) if we can use him instead.
It's just more exciting with Billy Beane running the team.
Buck is a worse defender in CF and even more injury prone than Sweeney, so yes. I agree.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 24, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
You are most definitely not alone.
A wise man (Frank Thomas) once said – Sweeney will be a star in this league. He has all the tools and sure looked good most of last season as a rookie. I hope he stays with this team for a long time.
How does trading for Hardy get Crosby's contract off the books?
The A’s need to upgrade at shortstop goes without saying, and Crosby’s $5.25M will be off the books as a bonus.
The A’s already put Crosby through waivers – any team in baseball could have had him for free. We’re paying Crosby next season weather we like it or not. If we’re trying to leverage Milwaukee’s payroll situation, we might end up having to take on a lot more salary to get Hardy.
I still don't get it
He’s off the books at that point weather we sign a replacement or not. There’s no way he gets that kind of money from the A’s or anyone else in 2010.
by MrIncognito on Jan 25, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions
Bullet point #3
The A’s need to upgrade at shortstop goes without saying, and Crosby’s $5.25M will be off the books as a bonus.
Paraphrasing – it’s easier for the A’s to absorb the ~$7M in salary that Hardy will garner in ‘10, because they won’t be paying Crosby anymore. Also, the Brewers are likely to have a greater payroll crunch than the A’s will in ’10, due to onerous contracts like Suppan and Bill Hall.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 25, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions
I like the Matt Holliday trade
because he’s the best offensive player we’ve had in more than five years. Anything that gets us one of those is A-OK with me.
"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico
Hooray! Me likey a Matt Holliday!
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
Me too.
Complain about a lack of offense and then complain about getting a great hitter? Not I.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
That's a non sequitur if you think the Holliday trade will make the A's offense worse
which I do.
Not for next year, obviously, but overall…
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
This is interesting. You seem to be saying Gonzalez is going to be a lot better offensively
than whoever replaces him — Buck or Sweeney. So much so that Holliday’s probably big advantage over Gonzalez in 2009 is negated eventually. That’s a lotta confidence in Carlos. I’m not sure Carlos isn’t more of a defensive guy with occasional power than a big offense guy…maybe like Tommie Agee.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 25, 2009 4:45 AM PST up reply actions
I think he'll ultimately be a better hitter than Sweeney or the 4th outfielder who plays 60 games a season
for a team for whom Travis Buck is “starting”.
And while losing his D does not “make the A’s offense worse,” it makes the A’s position players as a whole worse, which is all that really ought to be asked.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I don't think the A's FO thinks Sweeney will be better than CarGon
and I think that’s why they were ok with trading him.
Where fans stand on that question basically determines whether or not they liked the Holliday trade. I know that you were against that trade Paul, and I respect your opinion.
I don’t think CarGon would’ve ever thrived in the AL against superior pitching. I think he’s destined to have Corey Patterson’s career - a few good seasons where his horrible plate discipline wasn’t exposed, surrounded by a lot of disappointing ones.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 25, 2009 2:03 PM PST up reply actions
I wouldn't hang my hat on Ryan Sweeney's plate discipline...
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Well I guess we could complain that Ben Sheets is still not an "A".
"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."
The Many Wines-Rumi
And nearly a Ranger.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 24, 2009 10:06 PM PST up reply actions
No more prospects PLEASE!!!
Lets just try to play for today and not tomorrow for a change. 85% of them never pan out anyhow.
Green and gold in the freezing cold!!!
Buffalo NY.
But almost 50% of major leaguers are below average too. You just can't win.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 24, 2009 10:07 PM PST up reply actions
Almost?
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Right. It should be "approximately".
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 25, 2009 4:38 AM PST up reply actions
[Hides, await's grover's argument that only 25% of major leaguers are above average]
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
If there's an odd number of them, yes.
The middle guy is exactly average. The ones below him make up almost 50%.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
But we know there are an even number of major leaguers
25 players/team X 32 teams = 800 players
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's
or depending on the month, 40*32
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 25, 2009 9:38 PM PST up reply actions
What if one team didn't call up the full 40?
How do you like THEM apples? Huh? Huh?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
i thought of that
and with Dayton Moore in the league, it is a true realm of possibility.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Jan 25, 2009 10:28 PM PST up reply actions
that's the median
Nevermoor is probably closer to the mark with his anticipation of grover arguing for 75% being below average. Given the tail end of the talent distribution curve, a lot of performance value is tied up in a small handful of elite players (and in the immediate sub-elite decile) — just as Bill Gates + all of AN = an average net worth that’s way above the median NW.
A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@
Yes, and your description
of the talent distribution curve is an excellent demonstration of exactly why the median is the appropriate average to use here.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
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