Is the economy even WORSE than we thought 3 weeks ago? (CHONE and Ben Sheets)

by ChadGod on Jan 20, 2009 1:04 AM PST Comment 44 comments

Over at MLBtraderumors.com, there is a post about some rumblings and grumblings between the Mets and Ben Sheets.

Long story short, Ben Sheets is believed to be asking for $18mill/2 years with a third option year - Yes, really.

Just over three weeks ago, AN's very own Blicks made what I thought was an extremely compelling case for signing Ben Sheets.

At the time, we were throwing around ideas of $12-$15 million annually to acquire the guy and I still thought it was a good investment. Even if Sheets misses half the season he is still likely to be worth 2 wins, or ~$10 million market value.

Right now, depending on your personal scouting disposition of the A's players young and old, Its safe to say the A's are projected to be somewhere between 81-90 wins. I tend to like this particular WAR projection for the A's. This spreadsheet predicts the A's to win 86.5 games in 2009 using CHONE projections, and CHONE really isn't very favorable with the A's. It does make one large and favorable assumption: the health of the A's hitters, particularly Chavez. However, it doesn't expect Chavez to be very good. It doesnt expect Cust, or Buck, or Zooks, or anyone else to take a large step forward and it even has a rather humbling offensive prediction for Matt Holliday (lower wOBA than Cust and Giambi).

More importantly, CHONE is not very optimistic about the A's rotation. This has been pointed out before, but none of the A's pitchers are projected to eat very many innings.

What if we took that same spreadsheet and slotted in the modest CHONE projection for Ben Sheets - 148 innings at 3.83 ERA? Unfortunately that chart is read-only, but if you imagine sliding down Outman into the "replacement level" section and then halfing his innings and his 0.7 WAR, and then slotting up the "replacement level" and replacing it and its 0 WAR with Ben Sheets and his ~3 WAR projection you would end up with +~2.7 WAR.

Now, I'm no wizard, but 86.5 +~2.7 = GOOD! (89.2 projected wins).

How do we not pull the trigger? In my opinion that 89.2 wins is low anyway. (I think hitting upside and injuries will ~cancel out, and that pitching will be better than it is projected here.)

That is 2.7 WAR, and you know that $20million/2years or so would get it done. What a deal, especially given that these are the most important wins - these are the wins that could very well get us to the playoffs. Not to mention the fact that it would be nice to at least entertain the possibility of having a shutdown-ace if we ever got there.

Are the A's out of cash, or are they just stupid? I tend to doubt the latter.

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the economy is worse than anybody thought...

even me and I was pretty pessimistic. None of us have ever seen anything like this, unless you’re an octagenarian. I told monkeyball to sell, sell, sell a while back. Well, not him, exactly, but he didn’t believe me. I hope the rest of you took my advice.

Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...

by FoolshGame22 on Jan 20, 2009 1:23 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

but, if you can find a publicly-traded bank stock with a clean balance sheet...

and, which is doing conforming mortgage lending… buy, buy, buy. Such an entity will rock the Q1 to the upside!

Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...

by FoolshGame22 on Jan 20, 2009 1:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why sell?

If you’re still young and nowhere near retirement, you may as well buy, buy, buy. The only time you gain or lose anything on the stock market is when you actually sell your stock.

"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."

by VORP is too nerdy on Jan 20, 2009 4:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Mid 70s to the early 80s were worse than now in terms of unemployment and certainly standard of living

That’s not to say that the state of the economy can’t get worse, matching or exceeding the economy of that period. Lot’s of new money being injected into the money supply and it will eventually lead to the errosion of purchasing power of the USD. I’m not a big believer in the type of stimulus we’ve been trying and will continue to try. I’m also very nervous about the benefits that the federal government has promised to future beneficiaries: how do the demographics, the payroll taxes, those benefits, and the future labor market particpants deal with entitlement spending.

Maybe the season will start shortly and I can curl up in the fetal, suck my thumb, and watch some baseball to take my mind off those things that really do not concern me or are outside of my spheres of influenece.

by LowcountryJoe on Jan 20, 2009 7:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Intersting times way back then...

what was the interest rate on home loans? 15 percent?

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jan 20, 2009 9:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The future inflationary impact of such "stimulus" spending is scarcely mentioned

but it needs to be. Unfortunately, most people do not understand the nature and causes of inflation, so when it does hit people will more than likely ascribe blame to all of the wrong places.

However, let’s keep things in perspective: http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/steve_chapman/2009/01/recession-hys-1.html

by CapgrasDelusion on Jan 20, 2009 9:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

"quantitative easing"

should be illegal.

"I have more questions after these."-WaddellCanseco

by Gaijin_Suketto on Jan 20, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This is gonna make the mid-70's, early 80's look like a prom...

I’m kinda surprised at LCJ… not recognizing the obvious. And, by obvious, I mean something for which I’d get a CGV strike. Joe, c’mon… this is gonna get worse… much worse. A decade long worse.

Clowns to the left of me... Jokers to the right...

by FoolshGame22 on Jan 22, 2009 2:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

no not really

At least probably not. If you follow the link over to Metsblog, its 2/18 plus incentives. That can mean almost anything. Its also Matt Cerrone saying “from what I can gather.” I don’t know how hooked up the guy is, but it has to be tough to get inside information on contract deliberations with a MLB team.

FWIW, Brewers GM sounds negative on the chances of him coming back. I wonder if there is even dialogue with his agent.

by Lovejoy on Jan 20, 2009 6:05 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Injury is keeping the price down

I read many GM’s are scared off by his injury and are not sure if he will need surgery.

by Arcman on Jan 20, 2009 7:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

i think he's rangers bound

maddux his pitching coach from brewers is now w/ rangers and he’s from a nearby town there

by Asfan4ever723 on Jan 20, 2009 8:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Economy more downside to go.

But some of what is wrong is psychological – a herd mentality; someone yelling fire is a crowded theatre. Some say when that happens it’s best to be a contrarian and do the opposite – buy. I for one am staying very conservative and reading everything. One buddy of mine ( I work in the technology industry which has been hit very, very hard with layoffs, salary reductions, etc.) called this, “sudden death overtime for the white collar technology worker in America”. There – a sports reference.

Baja been here

by bajablue on Jan 20, 2009 8:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

OT:

Olney reports the A’s are one of the teams speaking to Russ Springer

Save Rajai Davis

by oakinboston on Jan 20, 2009 10:14 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

THE Russ Springer?

You know that feeling you’ve got now? You know what that is?

Victory.

by mikev on Jan 20, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jan 20, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd take a flyer on that.

www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.

by ChadGod on Jan 20, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

... and all the other teams aren't speaking to him because of what he said to Cindi in study hall

A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 20, 2009 11:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe they were just talking to him about last night's episode of 24 or something

by thejd44 on Jan 20, 2009 11:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think everybody realizes how tough things are financially right now.

I work two jobs and I still feel like I can barely make it. I’m crossing my fingers that I will be able to afford a season ticket package this year before the season starts. I wanted to go to spring training this year for the first time…..but that ain’t happening now. Oh well, at least I eat and have a roof over my head. Anyways………….

As far as how this translates to the A’s payroll, I’m sure, as has been discussed before here repeatedly, the budget more than likely shrunk. By how much? I don’t know.

Should the A’s try to come up with some more cash to sign Sheets? If he’s healthy, and if the price he’s asking is for real, of course! If his medical records are sketchy? Probably not

Either way, the A’s need to add another starter for depth.

by mrod on Jan 20, 2009 10:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

One day I'll be able to afford season tickets.

Maybe.

I can’t even justify one of the Weekend Series packages yet.

by mikev on Jan 20, 2009 10:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

First time since '02

That I won’t be a season-ticket holder. Still looking at mini-packs, but yeah…

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Jan 20, 2009 11:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Man, I was already planning on a road trip, sleeping on your sofa, and going with you guys to a Sheets start.

by Lovejoy on Jan 20, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That doesn't mean I won't go to games.

by mikev on Jan 20, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I can't even afford FREE KRAUT

A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 20, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

FREE KRAUT isn't free!

Thanks for tomorrow 'cause I've had enough

by andeux on Jan 20, 2009 11:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

FREE KRAUT costs a buck-o-five

A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 20, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Opportunity cost is a b****

by MrIncognito on Jan 20, 2009 2:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And you don't even wanna know how much b****** cost ...

A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 20, 2009 3:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

A buck two ninety-eight!

by mrod on Jan 20, 2009 3:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

My Dad always says that

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Jan 20, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think his average will be that high

A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 20, 2009 3:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Lovejoy-Well if the A's do sign Sheets

you can still take a road trip and sleep on our sofa!

by mrod on Jan 20, 2009 11:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Viva Benny!

by Lovejoy on Jan 21, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ariba' los Sheets!

"God made Majnun love Layla so much that just her dog would cause confusion in him."

The Many Wines-Rumi

by mrod on Jan 22, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

To follow up on Sheets

1) Most informed people seemed to think that the Rangers won’t go for Sheets. I’m glad because the potential of their offense really scares me right now. Hamilton, Davis, Cruz, Kinsler, + possible impacts from Michael Young, Hank Blalock, awesome Catching prospects….off-chance to be the highest scoring offense in baseball.

2) Apparently, the word on Sheets is that most teams are holding back not because of the elbow injury he suffered at the end of last season, but because it is believed his shoulder is in really bad shape. Smoltz had shoulder problems last year and he was able to pitch, what, 30 innings before shutting it down?

www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.

by ChadGod on Jan 20, 2009 11:28 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

First I've heard that his shoulder is a concern

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jan 20, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

i say go for him

win win… short contract for a HIGH ceiling pitcher. (if he stays healthy he’s top 15 pitches in mlb and an ace)….
helps us be a real contender this year, gives anderson, cahill etc 1 more year to develop

sheets, duke, gallagher, eveland, gonzalez seems like a good rotation to me w/ all we have in minors

by Warriors510 on Jan 20, 2009 1:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Looks like Billy is not looking for outside help in pitching department

From A’s site today

So a few words of caution to any A’s fans still hoping to see the likes of Ben Sheets, Tom Glavine, Jon Garland, Pedro Martinez, Randy Wolf, Paul Byrd, Freddy Garcia, Kenny Rogers, Andy Pettitte or even Mark Mulder in white cleats when pitchers and catchers report to Phoenix on Feb. 14:

Don’t hold your breath.

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090120&content_id=3751788&vkey=news_oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak

IMO, I see Anderson, Cahill etc up here either before AS break or sooner.

One way or the other, we should hope to score many, many runs as with the current pitching we are going to need them. It’s not pretty as currently projected. It will not be hard to see Cahill and Anderson pitching better than some of these. Just hope they don’t rush them before they are somewhat ready.

by Trainman on Jan 20, 2009 4:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

So, if Billy isn't going to spend money on a starting pitcher

then is he gonna add another bat somewhere? I think he should, just as insurance. The staff is still largely green and will need all the help they can get for the offense putting runs on the board.

by mrod on Jan 20, 2009 4:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs