2008 1st Round Draft Pick
by LBDirtbags on Jan 19, 2009 5:58 PM PST
84 comments
It has only been 7 months since the 2008 draft and a fair evaluation probably cannot be made for at least 2-3 years but given the strong debut of Brett Wallace I think its fair to at least address the decision to select Jermile Weeks over Brett Wallace.
Potential Rationale:
1) The A's may have been trying to address a particular position of weakness in their minor league system.
2) The A's also may have wanted to pick someone that they knew they could sign. Though Wallace wasn't someone who had outrageous demands.
Is that sufficient rationale to over look a much higher upside?
Cons to selecting Brett Wallace:
1) His position is a question mark. Currently he plays 3rd base, but its unclear how long he will stick there
2) The A's have a couple of guys with similar skill sets and question marks. A pretty clear example is Chris Carter.
Reality:
Brett Wallace may make his debut in the Majors in the upcoming season. He looks like he will be well above average hitter.
Was this move a mistake?
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+1
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
No.
"To this day and dating back 25 years, before every game he plays, Henderson stands completely naked in front of a full length locker room mirror and says, "Ricky’s the best," for several minutes."
by VORP is too nerdy on Jan 19, 2009 6:23 PM PST reply actions
Then it's settled!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yes
Weeks had a lot of question marks coming in as well defensively, as well as offensively. Wallace is a damn good hitter. We need damn good hitters!
Brett Wallace was about as much of a lock to be at least an above average hitter as there was in the draft
even if you adjust for position. He will be .300 35+/100+ for a long time. I’d take that for first base, or a mediocre 3rd baseman
"I think people in this state like BOTH teams," proclaims Nick Aliotti, the Ducks' defensive coordinator. "Except for our hard-core fans, I don't think most Duck fans would have been terribly upset to see Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl."
Another reason he needs to go.
by diehardoaklandfan22 on Jan 19, 2009 6:53 PM PST reply actions
If this was really the case Wallce wouldn't have made it out of the top 5
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's
Id rather have drafted Wallace.
Not to say the Weeks wont be good. Id just rather have Wallace.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
agreed 100%
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
+1
This sums up how I feel about it, too- I’m not specifically against Weeks, and he may well turn out to be a good MLB player, but I’d much rather they had taken Wallace.
by still bills kingdom on Jan 19, 2009 7:19 PM PST up reply actions
I'd say probably a mistake
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
making a case for weeks
at the time, A’s had no big time athletes or potential future leadoff hitters in the farm system.
2b for the future was looking bleak, they had no yet made trades for patterson and cardenas. with the impending free agency of elis
in a very shallow draft with athletes and up the middle players, weeks was on of the best in that draft remaining.
he was a slight over draft but likely wouldnt have gone much later if A’s passed on him. maybe to cards, mets, etc
weeks played high quality baseball in possibly the most competitive conf in college baseball the ACC and isnt far off from the majoprs
A’s saw wallace as a 1b/dh type, with barton, doolittle,carter already at those positions. they liked aaron hicks also, but only as a sp. looking back now, wallace may stick at 3b, but not likely long term. goldstein rated him a 5 star prospect. BA ranked hicks as the twins #1 prospects as an outfielder.
weeks did very good in his short low A stint and may have reached high A if not for the injury.
where do they fit in both cardenas/weeks stay at 2b? maybe make weeks a cf? cardenas to 3b?
To back up your statement
i asked martie lurie this question, and he simply said that the A’s did not want to draft another 1b/dh type of player, the A’s felt wallace wouldn’t hold up at third and that weeks was the best middle infielder available
i do agree on drafting on the basis of talent available, but the A’s feel like they snagged their future middle infielder, and that they did not want a log jam over at 1st
When we played softball, I’d steal second base, feel guilty and go back.
- Woody Allen
by rhymeswithelephant on Jan 19, 2009 7:51 PM PST up reply actions
maybe taking the best prospect offered...
regardless of position?
by Asfan4ever723 on Jan 19, 2009 8:07 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think Weeks and Cardenas are at all redundant
Besides generally needing to have two good prospects to get one, both 3B and 2B are areas of need by 2011-12 and Cardenas appears likeliest to find his home at 3B.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
They are, but eventually...I see 3B
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
I guess - I haven't heard that specifically but it seems possible
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
from bp draft roundtable
Kevin Goldstein (3:15:24 PM PT): SBE (Nashville): KG, tell us a bit more about Royals supp pick Mike Montgomery. Was he the best prep LHP in your mind? Seems like he has the body, arm, and projection scouts drool over.
You nailed it. He’s 6-5 and skinny, but very athletic. Avg velocity now, should find more as he fills out, and he has an above avg. breaking ball and changeup for a teenager. It’s a nice pick.
Kevin Goldstein (3:17:23 PM PT): Mateo (Guaymas, Mexico): Who do you really like that’s on the board here early in round dos?
Melville is the obvious one, but I think somebody soon is going to take Cal righty Tyson Ross. He didn’t perform well, but he’s a big kid with a big arm.
by Asfan4ever723 on Jan 19, 2009 9:20 PM PST up reply actions
my bad this one is on weeks
Kevin Goldstein (3:11:26 PM PT): Kenningolo (SF): Does Weeks have quick enough hands to be a productive hitter in MLB? Does he have soft enough hands to stay at 2B?
Absolutely. He’s going to hit, and he has batspeed power. The hands aren’t the issue with Weeks at 2B — it’s more a positioning and footwork issue.
by Asfan4ever723 on Jan 19, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions
Goldstein LOVES Weeks
To the point where I’m expecting him to rank at least 8th or so on Goldstein’s A’s top 11.
Other evaluators haven’t been as high on him.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
BA had him #9, which I guess isn't technically as high, but it's close
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 21, 2009 9:45 AM PST up reply actions
Well, if you pinned me against the wall
I’d guess he’d be 6th, maybe even 5th on Goldstein’s list. I don’t think he’ll be any lower than 8th.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Also Sickels had him 7th. Looks like you're all in the
same neighborhood.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 21, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
It strikes me as odd that they would suddenly go from drafting for need
to “best player available” in the space of a month, particularly considering that it’s far more logical to draft the best player available and trade for need than the other way around.
I’d assume they traded for Cardenas because they wanted 2 top infield prospects rather than relying on one guy.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I would assume they got Cardenas because that's what the Phillies had
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
The thing is
If Smoak was on still on the board they probably would’ve drafted him instead of weeks
When we played softball, I’d steal second base, feel guilty and go back.
- Woody Allen
by rhymeswithelephant on Jan 20, 2009 2:25 PM PST up reply actions
It couldnt be that they didnt want to draft another 1Bman
Because they were going to take Smoak.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
Smoak
is in a whole other world of talent. He’s the one who got away. =(
A whole other world of talent?
I definitely think he’ll be better than Wallace, but he wont be in a “whole other world”, especially if Wallace sticks at 3rd.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
If Wallace sticks at 3B, the A's probably messed up
I’m assuming the A’s drafted Weeks over Wallace because they don’t feel Wallace will be a major league 3Bman.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
From what I understand ...
Wallace’s chances at sticking at 3rd are less than the chances of Cardenas sticking at short … which are comparable to my chances of landing ________ {insert Hollywood starlet of choice} …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Bea Arthur?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Yeah ... I'd say those odds are appropriately low ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
if weks isnt high end middle infielder....
would made more sense to draft wallace andat somew point trade 1 of our 1b/dhs for a minf
Give it time
look at how many people bashed the trading of Harden. It came out today harden may have a slight tear in his arm. He hasn’t even started throwing yet.
The Weeks picks was a failure just
because he was not the best player available at the time. Getting away from BPA will always burn you in the long run.
Yep
This isn’t the NBA, or to a lesser extent the NFL, where you sometimes draft for need. In baseball you should always draft the best player available (unless you’re sure you can’t sign him).
Exactly.
In a vacuum, Wallace > Weeks. Organizational need should be essentially ignored when you’re talking about a prospect who is, AT BEST, 2 seasons away.
Agree - this is an easy call
You can’t use one of your first picks on some theoretical need that might exist in a few years. That’s what trades are for. If the A’s thought Wallace would be a better player, they were foolish to take Weeks. I don’t know if that’s the case. Perhaps they just made a mistake, assuming at this stage that it was a mistake.
I’m no draft expert, but never really understood the appeal of Weeks. I could be wrong, but would rather have had Wallace.
I disagree on this absolute
I think an organization needs to be realistic about its internal ability to produce players at key positions and if the team feels a MI is almost as good as a 1B/DH type and they NEED a MI then drafting the slightly inferior talent is acceptable.
My problem with picking Weeks is that the A’s had more pressing needs than 2B. Hicks for CF, Martin for 3B (either could switch back to pitching if their bats flopped and pitching is gold) represented players who could have filled more important holes in the organization.
The monster at the end of this blog.
2b was a big need
along with middle infield athletes, speed, leadoff hitters
since they liked hicks only as a pitcher and martin is set to pitch rather than play 3b, maybe a conversion process back to other roles werent going to happen
they had nothing at that position at the time.
by Asfan4ever723 on Jan 20, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
I think the point here
is that if they liked Hicks only as a pitcher, they blew the evaluation (unless he subsequently suffers a downturn with the bat which is not presently foreseen by Sickels, BA, et al).
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Nope... I can't give you that
The A’s had Ellis in place and an interest in bringing him back.
They had a host of prospects (Petit, Pennington, Sellers, etc.) that they could have slipped into 2B if necessary. Now, before you say anything let me acknowledge that if he pans out Weeks will likely be a better offensive player than any of those guys.
At the time of last year’s draft the A’s had nothing in the pipeline at 3B, nothing at SS (aside from the above mentioned guys) and a struggling CarGon in CF. Hicks told the A’s (and everyone else) that his heart was on playing in the OF. Martin wanted to stick to 3B but the Dodgers said otherwise. In both cases the players wanted to try their hand in the field first, with the mound being a fallback option. The A’s preferred Hicks as a SP and 6 months later it looks like they Oops’d! badly on that call.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Think about how many FA options the A's had to fill the 1b/DH hole ...
and compare that to how many they have to fill a bigger hole at MI …
I’ll express it as a ratio:
A lot:Still have BoCro at the top of the depth chart.
It’s looking like filling out the skill positions on the diamond with adequate hitters is going to be a much more significant challenge than it was during the recent era … position adjustments should be adjusted accordingly …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Jan 19, 2009 7:56 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
The problem with your ratio
No way in Hell Weeks replaces Crosby at SS and its not like his arrival suddenly freed up some 2B prospect to move across the diamond.
Although I agree there needs to be some weighing of position in the matter.
The monster at the end of this blog.
No, I know ...
and Wallace wouldn’t be replacing Giambi …
The point is, there are usually plenty of affordable adequate to much better options to fill in 1b/dh …
I’m not sure what the proper term for it is, but for a contending team we should be thinking of replacement talent not as the bottom of the barrel but as available and affordable players.
This off-season, based on that standard, replacement level was Jason Giambi at 1b and appears as if it will be something less than Bobby Crosby. The question then, in assessing Weeks’ and Wallace’s respective values then, we should do so relative to the likelihood and potential magnitude that each will surpass those very different standards …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I guess I'm not following you then
My kid woke me up at 3 AM ‘cause he had a 102 degree fever so my brain’s not at 100%. When I read this it still sounds like you’re trying to make some connection between Weeks and Crosby even after you acknowledge that Weeks can’t/won’t replace Crosby at SS. So I’m missing a step here… care to enlighten me?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Not Crosby himself ... but Corsby's equivalent circa 2010-2012 ...
Wallace will probably see the show sooner than Weeks, which is a point in his favor, but lets put that aside for a moment.
In 2011 (or whenever) lets imagine the A’s look very much like they might if none of the other 1b/2b prospects in the system pan out, with Ellis an aging free agent and Giambi having recently retired after the A’s picked up his option for 2010. The team, thus, has gaping holes at 1b and 2b. In 2011, theoretically, we should be able to fill that 1b hole with a similar player to Giambi for a very affordable price. 2b, however, will likely be much more difficult to fill, similar to SS this offseason, with the best affordable option likely being the equivalent of another team trading for BoCro to fill a SS hole this offseason. That team would likely have to pay about the same amount as this A’s did for Giambi, but would be getting a dramatically inferior player.
The question then, as to who was the better draft pick, is whether the A’s are a better team with Weeks + Giambi equivalent or Wallace + Crosby equivalent.
I don’t have any great opinion on which is more likely to be the case, I just think that many here are failing to adequately consider the relative value in their different positions.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
If Weeks returns next year healthy
He could reek some havoc at the top of a future A’s lineup. To be fair, I love Wallace, and the power is very, very sexy. But Weeks does a whole lot of things very well.
John Sickels (link here) ranked Weeks as the sixth best college hitter (noting he could be anywhere from sixth to ninth depending on various things) and Wallace as the eighth.
I also must agree with what devo said directly above me. The 1B/DH types on the market are plentiful, as Wallace will probably not be an above average 3B for very long, if he even is right now. A second baseman is far more valuable than a first baseman, obviously. That said, I love Wallace and look forward to watching him play out here in the midwest.
Sickels subsequently rated Wallace an A- and Weeks a B
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 21, 2009 9:48 AM PST up reply actions
Yes
But that could have something to do with the fact that Weeks was playing in Low A, and then seriously injured his leg, which is obviously very valuable to the speed aspect of his game. And the fact that Wallace saw time in AA, and pretty much mashed in his first taste of pro-ball.
I’m just saying, all things considered, I think Weeks still has the potential to be more valuable than Wallace in the long run
I think Wallace is more valuable than Weeks
So I guess it could be termed a mistake as I think the best draft strategy is to try to get the best value. Wallace looks to be a great hitter and even with the other prospects that profile the same defensively the A’s could use some great hitters.
That said, I don’t think it was a major mistake. I like Weeks as well and I think he has a chance to be a very good player for us. And as with any prospect comparison there is a chance that going with Weeks over Wallace turns out really well for us.
Weeks over Wallace doesn't bug me, although I think Wallace might end up being a slightly better player
Players are not infinitely fungible— taking a player at a position where he’s very likely to be blocked or to block others is generally a bad idea, because if you’re forced to move a guy, you won’t get full value.
Weeks over Hicks bugs me a lot, however. I’m not particularly optimistic about Weeks’s chance to stick at 2B and if he moves to CF, he strikes me as basically a strictly inferior version of Hicks. Hicks filled a position of need too, and has a much higher ceiling as a hitter. And I suppose if he busted out as a hitter he had the option of converting back to pitcher, a la Matt Bush.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Don't forget Martin
Either Hicks or Martin (CF/3B/SP) would have been preferable to Weeks.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I feel like there were enough questions about Martin's upside with the bat to justify picking Weeks over him
I liked him more as a pitcher at the time myself.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Middle infielders
And pitchers are the most valuable positions right now. Giambi is a better hitter than Wallace will be in the next year or two at least and he cost < 5 million.
RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!
Too early to tell
Wallace has played 54 games with a wooden bat (with a 327/427/530 line). He is 23 years old, and weighs 250 pounds. That is not good. In addition, he appears to be the type of hitter reaches his potential early (because there’s not a ton of athletic ability upon which to develop additional skills).
Weeks has played 19 games with a wooden bat (with a 297/422/402 line). He is a better athlete, whose skills may develop as he harnesses his athletic ability.
In other words, it is WAY too early to tell whether the A’s should have drafted Wallace over Weeks. And, that doesn’t even address the fact that we’ve got Doolittle and Carter in the first-base pipeline (Wallace won’t be a 3B when he’s 30 years old), and that second-basemen tend to be better trading chips than 1B/DH types.
Let’s wait and see…
Wallace isn't likely to be on the team that drafted him when he's 30 years old.
I mean, if the “organizational need” card is going to be played to justify drafting Weeks, it still makes no sense — 3B and SS are equally if not more important needs than 2B, especially considering Ellis was extended for 3 more years at a crazy team friendly contract.
Wallace is likely to see the big leagues in 2009, and have full contributing years in 2010 and 2011. I’m not confident Chavez will be healthy that whole time, so really Wallace (or, rather, Third Base) can be viewed as a greater organizational need than 2B anyway.
Do people now actually believe that Wallace can play 3rd base at the big league level?
Cuz IIRC no one believed that prior to the draft and the best I’ve heard recently is that there is a possibility that he might be able to play it badly (like maybe Ryan Braun badly—although Wallace won’t likely be moved to LF and be average + if he can’t cut it at 3B.)
I actually think he'll be tolerably decent
He made a couple of nifty plays in the CWS— particularly one where he ranged way to his right, caught a ball actually in foul territory, and then threw the runner out at first— that I saw. And while he’s not a burner, he wasn’t unbearably slow, either, compared to say Petey Paramore (though in fairness to Paramore, he was practically hopping from base to base with a hamstring injury).
It is a matter of opinion, though— and by and large I trust the A’s on the issue of defense.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
No more than people actually believe Weeks will remain at 2B, I guess.
I seem to remember the knock on Weeks being that he doesn’t have the softest hands in the world and might not stick in the infield.
Not that there’s anything wrong with converting to, say, center field — right BJ Upton? — but still, if the object was to fill an organizational need at middle infield, it would have been better to pick a sure thing right?
Interesting about Weeks
Last I heard the knock on his defense was his footwork/technique needed work but that his hands, range and arm were all more than adequate. I think this was in one of the chats after the draft.
That was kind of why I’ve been pretty confident in Weeks ability to stick at 2B, if there are concerns about his hands in the field that would be a bit more disconcerting.
Is this really true?
I know there were some doubts prior to the draft about Weeks defense, but not on the level of Wallace where almost everyone was categorically stating he would not be at 3B.
The problem is, there were no sure things
At either MI position, in fact. They simply were not available in that draft class. Last year’s class was a very strange one in that there were a ton of pure hitters and very few players with defensive skill available, especially in the college ranks.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Judging from the Community Prospect list at Sickels's site, that seems to be true of
the minors as well.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 21, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions
I think that represents merely a pervasive misunderstanding of player value
as evidenced by the ridiculous Chris Davis thread.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I think are opinions are about the same on Wallace at 3rd
I don’t think he is Ryan Braun territory because he has been said to have decent hands and pretty good consistency and accuracy with his throws. Wallace’s biggest problem is his size and agility limiting his range and reaction time. Scouts tend to say he is more agile than he looks at first and is thus agile enough to stick at 3rd for now.
The issue is that he is kind of on the edge of the acceptable range, reaction scale. If he bulks up a bit, or slows down due to age or injury, he will likely be ticketed for 1B. I think the question is how long he can maintain his current physical ability with the caveat that almost any deterioration will force him off 3B.
SoCal
I can’t technically be classified as a SoCaler…I’m from Toronto, lived in SoCal during college…and I have moved back to the frozen north for work.
But obviously Go Dirtbags!!
Everytime you use RBI as anything other than an indicator of where a guy is hitting in his team's lineup, another cute snuggly animal dies a horrible death.
Too early to tell anything.
I would love to revisit this question in another two years and see where the two players stand.
I agree that Justin Smoak was the one that got away. And of course he ends up with friggin Texas! Grrrr…..!
does anyone know how to get your signature line to show up below your username?
I updated my profile and I still don’t know what I’m doing wrong. Help?
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