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Important (mentally) to provide pitchers with offensive support?

The decision to trade for Matt Holiday is still one that bothers me today, though at this point that horse has been flogged to the point that I can't be bothered by it.

 

Or can I?

 

Today Tim Kurkjian wrote an article on ESPN, discussing how the A's have largely closed the gap with the Angels during the off-season, and are now poised to be competitive for the division in 2009.

What struck me about this article is the emergence of a common theme I get from Beane's quotes regarding the A's moves this offseason: the importance of improving the offense so that pitchers don't feel as much pressure in winning games.

The major need the A's addressed was their offense. Last season, the A's were last in the major leagues in slugging percentage (.369) and batting average (.242), second-to-last in on-base percentage (.318), 27th in runs scored (4.01 per game) and 25th in home runs (125). They had only one player with more than 13 home runs (DH/outfielder Jack Cust hit 33). They had no one with as many as 78 RBIs -- the Angels had four guys with at least 78 RBIs.

 

Beane laughed and said, "4.01 runs per game? That seems a little high. You'd better check those numbers … obviously, it was critical that we address that for the young pitchers. You don't want them going out there thinking that they have to pitch a shutout.''

It seems like every time I see a quote from Beane regarding the Holliday trade or Giambi signing, this issue of protecting the pitcher comes up.  Previously, I'd kind of written off Beane's statements about this subject as typical "safe answer" blather.  That is, Beane can't say, "We traded for Holliday because our numbers show us that we are vastly superior to the Angels and we are going to run away with the f*@#ing division this year!" because if that doesn't happen he looks like an idiot.  Similarly, Beane can't say, "we sold high Gonzales.  The guy can't take a walk to save his life, and his defense is not as wizard as y'all think."  But Beane can say he made the trade to protect his young arms.  Hard to argue that.  So the question is, to what extent should I believe him?

 

There are a lot of things to consider here:

Do pitchers really "go for the shutout" if they don't have good offensive support?

If they do, does it really matter?  Does it mean they are a bigger injury risk for trying harder?  Or does it limit development by not allowing youngsters to experiment with their approach?

Will Anderson/Cahill/Mazarro even be up in time to feel the benefit of Holliday in the lineup?

Poll
How big of a factor was "protecting the pitcher" in the A's off-season moves this year?
A non-factor. Beane is just giving the safe answer.
8 votes
A small factor. The prime reasons were different (run at division etc), but it's still a consideration
35 votes
A large factor. The young guys risk their development if they have a turkey offense
28 votes
It was the primary factor in the Holliday trade and/or Giambi signing
14 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 45 comments

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I think it's important

Ideally a pitcher shouldn’t be thinking “I have to pitch better because I don’t think the offense is going to help me much” but it’d be better for them to feel less pressure in that they can get away with a minor mistake or two if the bats pick them up.

At the same time, a pitcher who’s a leader can say “Don’t worry, guys. Just get me a couple runs and I’ll make it work.”

Sometimes you run up against a guy who just shuts your offense down but once in a while you do see a pitcher who seems to be bitten by the offense somehow scoring more runs for every other guy on the staff but him.

Especially if they’re going to have the starters they’re shaping up to go with this season, they absolutely need an offense that’s going to give them more room to go through some growing pains without it always coming at the cost of a chance to win.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Jan 19, 2009 1:46 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

basically the pitchers don't have to feel that they have to strike everyone out, which could lead to more walks

beane wants the pitchers to let the ball get put in play. He knows the defense will take care of it.

"It's like déjà vu all over again." -yogi berra

by Cheezombie on Jan 19, 2009 1:50 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

can't the pitching coach just tell the pitchers that?

just playing devil’s advocate here, but though I understand your point, I don’t think the logical conclusion is to sign Holliday and Giambi

Save Rajai Davis

by oakinboston on Jan 19, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Curt Young can tell them that, but they won't necessarily believe it.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Jan 19, 2009 2:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, just think about how WE felt watching games the last couple years

once the other team scored a run, it was, or at least felt, like we were already defeated. Therefore, the pitchers HAD to try for shutouts, because there was no faith in the offense to score.

Doctor Baron Van Evil Satan

by Zonis on Jan 19, 2009 5:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Personally

I think a better defense is more important for a pitcher’s confidence.

Typically, young pitchers come up through the minors playing in front of bad defenses and try to strike everybody out for the first year or so. They settle in when they realize that a good defense behind them will make the plays that aren’t being made in the minors.

But it’s also good for a pitcher to know that he doesn’t have to be perfect every fifth day, that the offense will score runs either way, for the team to win. Most of this is pretty obvious. I think the moves were mostly made to upgrade the offense for the fact that it was woeful rather than the pitchers development, but I’m sure all of this factored in Beane’s decision, obviously.

by NateHST on Jan 19, 2009 2:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I agree with all of the above

I also think Beane wants to surround his young players with a few established MLB players with phenomenal work ethic.

Cust, Holliday, and Giambi all are extremely dedicated to training and (seemingly) very mature in their approach to baseball as a job. Those are good examples for young, good looking guys who probably have lots of temptation to go out and party, play video games and chase women excessively (Buck, Barton, Sweeney, etc.).

Seeing a 38-year-old ex-MVP with 100MM in the bank who still works harder than most teammates is probably a good thing for the 22-26 year-olds. And it means even more if he’s actually still good (Giambi/Holliday vs. Mike Sweeney).

I also think there’s a negative long-term psychological effect that comes with losing 90-100 games. I like knowing that they’re perpetually trying to put a competitive team on the field – it probably helps make going to work better for the players. I used to be of a mind that, if the A’s weren’t going to make the playoffs, I figured they might as well lose as much as possible and get the best possible draft pick. Now I feel like that would do more harm than good.

Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.

by notsellingjeans on Jan 19, 2009 2:09 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Giambi is *very* dedicated to his training...

jokes aside, Ive noticed this tendency by Beane for years, to trade for/sign guys who are known for their work ethic.

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Jan 19, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

"Those are good examples for young, good looking guys who probably have lots of temptation to go out and party, play video games and chase women excessively (Buck, Barton, Sweeney, etc.)."

Barton’s only chance to score is if the lifeguard fell into the pool!

Although, him playing video games might put him at risk for carpel tunnel syndrome. :/0

by mrod on Jan 20, 2009 8:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's a non-factor

He’s being personable. I’d be shocked if it played any significant role in his decision-making process.

All he’s doing is framing the issue (filling gaping holes on the roster with better players) in a way which doesn’t insult the guys on the 2008 team, or at least doesn’t do so directly.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jan 19, 2009 2:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I agree

I was trying to think of examples where lack of run support hurt a pitcher’s development and couldn’t think of any. These days, with the de-emphasis on W-L records, I don’t even think that’s a factor any more. I mean, it’s nice to take a little pressure off but I suspect in the main, it’s pretty unimportant.

I think there were three reasons for the Holliday trade and Giambi signing - the first is to create an atmosphere of potential contention. If the Angels come down to Earth and A’s pitchers fulfill their potential, the hitting will be there. The second is to serve as a bridge to the next generation of hitters, to remove the possibility that they (Carter, Doolittle, Cunningham) would be called up prematurely in order to fill gaps in the line-up - also, in this regard, to allow Cust, Sweeney, Buck and Barton to play to their strengths and allow Holliday and Giambi carry the hitting load, if need be. The third is to put more butts in the seats, in terms of both season tickets and in-season attendance.

by richwol1 on Jan 19, 2009 5:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know, richwol1 -

One thing you want a young pitcher to learn how to do is “limit damage,” e.g., when you have second and third and nobody out instead of trying to escape entirely (which might mean going for the strikeout and then walking the bases loaded to set up a DP), go ahead and pitch to contact, maybe trading one run for minimizing the chance for a big inning.

When you have a lineup behind you capable of hitting a 3-run HR, capable of putting up a 4-spot, capable of scoring more than 1 run more than 75% of the games…it’s going to feel different to a pitcher than when that first or second run allowed seems like the kiss of death.

In other words, you want a young starter to feel like if he goes 7IP and gives up 2ER he has put his team in position to win, not to feel like if he gives up two runs he has probably lost the game.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 19, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

One example

of a young pitcher being effected adversely by a lack of run support last year was Greg Smith. The 1 run per game of support he got had him constantly trying to paint the corners instead of just coming right at the hitter.

by jdub69 on Jan 19, 2009 6:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

also

his lack of skill also caused him to try to paint the corners constantly.

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Jan 19, 2009 7:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not so sure

there’s a lack of skill where Smith is concerned. I think he’s a pretty decent young pitcher who will only get better.

by jdub69 on Jan 19, 2009 8:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

ya i should have clarified

its a lack of stuff that makes him nibble

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Jan 20, 2009 12:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

although I’d define it more as lack of “talent,” since I don’t think there’s anything the matter with his mechanics or preparation. He just doesn’t have plus stuff.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Jan 19, 2009 10:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You seem to be assuming a lack of poise and teachability on the part of the pitcher in question

I also have major problems with the notion that “pitching to contact” is ever the right thing to do in that situation. I suppose it might reduce the batter’s odds of drawing a walk, but it substantially INcreases his odds of getting a base hit.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Jan 19, 2009 10:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nico, maybe...but probably not...

While I agree that the situation changes if there’s no possibility of your team scoring runs, I don’t think it changes the trajectory of a pitcher’s development, in the long haul. In fact, one could argue that this kind of situation and pressure is exactly what a young pitcher needs to deal with if he’s going to have success in the long term because he’d be learning to pitch under pressure.

by richwol1 on Jan 21, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I personally think it is part of that large area that is considered “unknowable” or “luck”, much like clutchness in hitting.

Every guy is different, and for some, the added pressure of a bad offense might tip the scales from “good” to “okay”, or “average” to “bad”.

Of course you’d need a gppd psychologist to figure out how it applied to each guy, and even then it wouldn’t be 100%.

by chri5 on Jan 19, 2009 9:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Calling Harvey Dorfman!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 19, 2009 9:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd mostly agree

I wouldn’t entirely discount the psychological pressure a pitcher might feel because of having a crappy offense behind him (though I’d guess that it’s lower than the pressure he’d feel with a crappy defense behind him), but I think it’d be shrinkingly low even if it exists.

This offensive-support-alleviating-psychological-pressure is, methinks, yet another example (STRICKOUTS!) of fans projecting their own mentalités onto players.

A B -3X = Swedish girls like chocolate @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jan 20, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

well, i would guess

that statistically, pitchers lose most of the games in which their offense has been shut out in. I could be wrong though….
(yes, that was sarcastic. but an interesting discussion nonetheless)

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft

by harendaman365 on Jan 19, 2009 3:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think this is an interesting discussion point

and one which goes into the nebulous category of “non-stat based intangibles” like leadership, clubhouse presence, etc. – some will argue these are feel-good pluses that don’t affect actual player performance or wins and losses, while others will argue that the difference is felt everywhere, even if to a relatively small degree compared to ability and talent.

My official position is that we’ll never know – but I lean towards believing that some of these intangibles DO make a difference and that even Beane and Co. factor them into their decisions to some degree.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 19, 2009 5:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I do recall

you mentioning this point once or twice in game threads last year.

I do find these intriguing, like “do hitters relax when they’re ace is on the mound”?

Figure the best to answer these questions are the players themselves.

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Jan 19, 2009 6:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Must...not...comment...on..."they're/their"...

Ziggy did agree, the other day, to answer a Q&A about intangibles between now and the start of the season, but we’ll see if it actually comes to pass. I’m not going to count on it but I will construct a few questions and send them along with hopes he can find the time to offer a quickie player’s perspective before he gets swamped with baseball-related commitments.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 19, 2009 6:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That is my second time this week!

What (or who) has gotten into me?!

Other than that, thanks. Would love to hear Ziggy’s (or any other player’s view).

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Jan 20, 2009 7:20 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The main way in which this is different

is that pitching is the least reactive thing in baseball. Hitters hit (or don’t) what’s thrown to them. Fielders field (or don’t) what’s hit to them. But pitchers start each pitch from scratch. In theory, it could be like bowling. When pitchers are really on, they say that they feel like they’re playing catch with the catcher. Hitters never say that they forgot someone was pitching to them.

Pitchers really do have the time to think everything through on every pitch, for better (Greg Maddux) or for worse (Barry Zito).

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Jan 19, 2009 6:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In theory, the catcher can eliminate this

(“I’ll put down the sign and the target, you throw the ball”), but in practice I don’t think it’s quite that simple.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 19, 2009 6:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And even if the catcher gets the pitcher to do that

he could still overthrow whatever the catcher happens to have called.

Another point here about starters is that, unlike hitters, they spend most of every game sitting around thinking about (a) their last game, or (b) their next game, but not being able to get up and do anything about it. Bad run support could affect a pitcher not only during a game, but on all his off-days, as well.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Jan 19, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And in December!

How many pitchers have probably bought the wrong Xmas present for their daughter due to bad run support?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 19, 2009 7:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ask Ziggy that one.

Wait, does he have a daughter?

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Jan 20, 2009 7:21 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of offense.

Adam Dunn’s Price Might Be Falling
By Drew Silva [January 19 at 5:11pm CST]
Chico Harlan of the Washington Post spoke with an agent Monday who believes Adam Dunn “will get a max of $5MM per year” this offseason.

“Anything more than that and I’d be surprised,” added the unnamed agent. Dunn is reportedly still seeking a four-year, $56MM deal. Harlan notes that there are no big market teams in the running and he’s highly unlikely to get those desired figures. “That’s why Dunn just might end up in Washington, the one team that unequivocally wants the guy,” the report concludes.

The defense at 1B and RF would take a hit, but would be solid otherwise. He would give us an in his prime, very affordable slugger for the post-Holliday period and at say, 3/21, would leave some room to add pitching if that is indeed Beane’s plan. We would be lefty and K heavy, but we would also have a lot of OPS and tons of power in the middle of that lineup.

by JPShark on Jan 19, 2009 5:27 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Wait, am I reading correctly that you're saying $5mil per year?

If so, why would the A’s need to offer 7? And if so, I’d say do it regardless of current need – you might need a new LFer in 2010, you might need a new DH in 2010, and at that price he’s so valuable in a future trade you’ll never be stuck with him if you don’t want to be. But I can’t believe his price will fall that far.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 19, 2009 5:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Right

If he would take $5 mil per year, offer him 10 years at $3 mil per, maybe he’d take that! I mean, since we’re talking crazy and all.

"All your baserunner are belong to Greg Smith" ~ walk off bunt

by Philip Christy on Jan 19, 2009 5:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, no matter how "undervalued" he is,

no perennial 40-HR hitter in his prime is going to go for $5mil/year. There’s just no way.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 19, 2009 6:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey i'm just going by what the article stated.

If you would have told me guys would be taking the amount of money/years that they have been earlier in the offseason I would have told you that you were crazy. The market for these types of players is way, way down.

The reason I would offer $7mil a season is simply that it’s going to take a little something extra to convince Dunn to leave the NL and come play in Oakland. It’s been said before that he would like to stay in the NL. So you pay a little extra (still much less then what a player of his caliber would normally net) and land another huge offensive force and insurance policy for when Holliday likely leaves. Barton spends the season in AAA or is dealt. Dunn can see time at all of DH/1B/LF while Cust will see time at DH/OF and Giambi at 1B/DH. Obviously the defense will be bad at 1B and one of the corner outfield positions but like I said, the rest of the defense will be solid and the offense will be stacked. I would have never even thought of something like this two months ago, but I also didn’t know how bad this market would be two months ago.

by JPShark on Jan 19, 2009 7:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I would sign Dunn for 3/21 or 4/24 in a heartbeat,

stash Barton at AAA for a year if need be and know that Dunn will replace Holliday, Giambi, or Cust. You’re only looking at taking a double-hit on defense for one year and in that year your offense is plenty good to make up for it. It’s just too good a deal to pass up, IMO.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 19, 2009 7:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well

it’d be almost impossible to sign him now, unless Beane trades Barton, cuz where the hell are you gonna put him? It woulda been a way better idea to sign Dunn than Giambi, but now that Giambi’s signed, there are just too many 1B/LF/RF/DH types on the team.

Of course, if he really cost on $5 mil per year it might be worth it, but that’s a ridiculous price.

"All your baserunner are belong to Greg Smith" ~ walk off bunt

by Philip Christy on Jan 19, 2009 5:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you either put Barton at AAA,

or you put Dunn at SS. :-)

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 19, 2009 5:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Chavvy and Ellis will get to everything anyway

Plus, Dunn is pretty big. Chances are a few grounders a game might just bounce off him.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Jan 19, 2009 6:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe I'll fungo a few ideas his way

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jan 19, 2009 6:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If Dunn actually cost that little,

I’d have no compunction about signing him and just releasing Giambi…

Like others, I can’t really believe that. He made $13M last season, yeah? And I never heard that called an overpay.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Jan 19, 2009 10:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I write off "intangibles" as much as anyone here

but I think it’s very possible that the lack of an offense will cause young pitchers to press and “overpitch”, losing effectiveness and stunting development.

by Josh Deletchi on Jan 19, 2009 8:39 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

"If Dunn actually cost that little, I’d have no compunction about signing him and just releasing Giambi…"

Okay, first, that statement makes no sense whatsoever. I would hope that you were speaking in jest.
 Second, you think Billy Beane signed Jason Giambi for 5 million so he could throw it away? Even if Dunn “was” signed to a contract, you mean to tell me you’re gonna be okay with letting a potential 30 jacks, 90 rbi’s, 100 walks, great obp% & slugging pct%, in Giambi, just walk out the door? Why? because…..you think he sucks defensively? Or you just don’t like the guy? What is it?

I’m sorry, usually your posts are very thoughtful and provocative but this one does nothing of the sort. :(

by mrod on Jan 20, 2009 9:00 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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