You will not find a bigger Orlando Cabrera hater than myself. He's a bum. Not only did I always think he was over-rated, but I have always found myself naturally opposed to the teams he has played for - okay, not the Expos, but I loathed his presence on each of the dreaded Red Sox, Angels, and White Sox. (Red Sox for acting entitled, White Sox for the betterment of sabermetrics, and the Angels for being the Slegna.)

However, I was reading a random thread about Cabrera in which a commenter mentioned that Cabrera had been "lucky" to go to the playoffs with all of those squads. Upon reading this, I had to pause and think for a second, was it just luck or was it possible that despite his reputation as a negative team presence Cabrera might actually improve the players around him?

The following is my attempt at answering this question...

We all know Cabrera went to the playoffs with the Red Sox, Angels and White Sox, So What. These were all good teams that were, with the exception of the 2008 White Sox, expected to contend and by no means was Cabrera even close to the most valuable asset on any of these teams....at least directly.

Still, it is possible that Cabrera somehow caused these teams to perform better than expected. Can we prove causation? Of course not, but if we can demonstrate that Cabrera has consistently played for teams that have beat their projections, well than, that might lend some tangibility to his otherwise intangible qualities. (Look for this post to circulate on ESPN.com shortly)

Going year-by-year, lets see if I can find some half-decent projections and determine any trend...

Unfortunately, the only thing I was able to find is a PECOTA projections table starting from 2003, so if anyone can dig up the Expos projected record versus actual record data from 1999-2002 that would be useful.

But for now, starting from 2003:

In 2003: Expos projected wins 82, Actual wins 83, Error: +1. Cabrera had his best season ever that year, so one could easily argue that he was directly the +1 there.

In 2004: Cabera was traded to the Red Sox for the final 2 months of the season as they made their playoff push. Lets look at both the Expos and Red Sox that year.
Expos predicted Ws: 79, Actual: 67, Error -12
Boston predicted W: 106, Actual: 98, Error -8

In 2005, Cabrera signed with the Angels.
Angels predicted Ws: 83, Actual: 95. Error + 12

In 2006,
Angels predicted Ws: 81, Actual: 89, Error +8

In 2007,
Angels predicted Ws: 86, Actual: 94, Error +8

In 2008, Cabrera signed with the White Sox
White Sox projected Ws: 77, Actual: 89, Error +12

In continuing crude fashion, lets add up the numbers: , +1, (-12 - 8)/2 = -10, +12, +8, +8, +12 = +31/6 = +5.2 Wins over projected on average per season. Notice, I averaged the 2004 negatives since that was only one season, and even then the -10 is probably too harsh because the Expos most likely tanked after trading people away, while no doubt Boston only traded for Cabrera because they were well below their projections at that time and needed a boost.

Anyway, despite the many inherent imperfections with this kind of analysis +5.2 Wins over PECOTA projections for teams that Orlando Cabrera was a part of is pretty large to totally ignore. I'd be interested to find those earlier years Expos projections.

Lets withhold our disbelief for a second and imagine that this truly is some sort of  "O-Cab effect." Just how much would O-Cab be worth to the A's if that was the case? Well right now I believe we project to be around 79-80 Wins. Replace Crosby with O-Cab and that is 80-81 wins. Now, add the O-Cab effect and Oakland would finish the season approximately 86-76 -- shit that would give us a good shot at the playoffs. Not to mention that Cabrera would have a WAR of over 7, worth a market value of about ~$35million/y

Conclusion: O-Cab is bum and I don't want him, but if we sign him for $4 million this is what will make it okay for me.