In all likelihood, Matt Holliday will actually be the OBP King of the A's next year. Its certainly not a lock, but given that of our 3 sluggers, Holliday is the youngest (turns 29 in 4 days) and given that his OBP has been steadily increasing year-to-year:

.349....361...387....405....408 last season

It is somewhat likely that this will decrease in Oakland, but if so not by much. Looks like ~400 is about the peak anyway, which makes sense for his age.

Now then, lets shift our attention to the likely runner-up - Cust or Giambi?

I am not asking who is a better player, or even how well either of these guys does next season, but rather I simply want to take a heat-check on ANers and see who thinks Giambi will have a higher OBP than Cust next season or vice versa (assuming relative health)...

Jason Giambi just turned 38 years old, Jack Cust turns 30 in a few days...(side note: I love that all of the power in our lineup was born in January, random). Time = advantage Cust, but that doesn't necessarily mean his OBP will reign supreme in '09.

Lets look at the relevant past, Giambi's last several years of OBP:

2005: .440
2006: .413
2007: .356 (injuries 83 G)
2008: .373

As for Cust:

2007: .408
2008: .375

So, both players were able to get on base at very similar rates last season and both players also declined from "established" norms, which on first thought one could easily attribute Giambi's decline to age while Cust's is less clear.

In my limited depth of expertise, I first look to BABIP to reconcile the trends. Looking first at Giambi's BABIP we can plainly see that while his BABIP was well below average last season, it has consistently been below average (it was average in 2005) since 2002 , the year after he signed with the Yankees. Perhaps we can attribute this to Giambi getting homer happy in the Bronx and forgetting about the all-fields approach? Or perhaps HGH just isn't as good as the real thing.

When I look at Giambi's decline - specifically 2008 - I notice that he is almost the exact same hitter he has always been in the Bronx, except for one thing. While his average, HR power, and strikeout numbers have remained fairly consistent, in 2008 he drew far less walks than normal. Why? I have no idea. What does it mean? You tell me. There is still a lot of good in this data though. Last year, Giambi still had power, remained within a consistent BABIP, and still K'd at established rates. Despite walking less, he still drew 76 BBs, so Im optimistic going forward. Factors against Giambi include age, park factors, lineup protection, but there is also the Oakland hitting success factor working for him, and of course the added MOJO factor.

Turning to Cust for a second, his BABIP is more concerning. It looks to me like Cust had the exact same season in 2008 that he did in 2007 except that his BABIP regressed from well-above average to just slightly above average. Hopefully Cust's true talent is somewhere in between the two rather than just MLB average or even below-average like Giambi. Anyway, it does lead me to conclude that Cust probably won't be getting back towards a .400 OBP anytime soon.

So, what say you AN? Who will have a higher OBP next season, Cust or Giambi? And also, does anyone think that either will actually have a higher OBP than Holliday?

Personal unfounded OBP projections:
Holliday: .409
Giambi: .385
*Hopes to find Travis Buck here*
Cust: .372