Andrew Brown as starter?
The A's are most likely gonna concentrate on improving its offense for 2009, and our current pitching roster will most likely see very little change. Right now, I'm projecting that we will have 3 southpaws in our starting rotation for 2009: Gio, Eveland, and Smith to complement Duke and Gallagher. Braden will most likely be considered as well.
I'm not a big fan of having 3 lefties in the rotation, especially 3 merely average ones. The team will get killed when facing offenses with right-handed power such as Yanks, Bosox, Tigers, or Rangers. This is why I'm proposing to use Andrew Brown as our starter. When healthy, Brown posted up similar bullpen numbers to Duke before he became a starter. He has a great fastball and is a strikeout pitcher. He has been hit by the injury bug over the last 2 years and perhaps, putting him on a fixed 5 day rotation will help him.
With the emergence of Zigler, Devine, and to a certain extent, Blevins, there is little use for Brown in the BP. He has a great arm and should be given a chance to start, just like Duke. Heck, we really got nothing to lose in 2009, anyway.
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49 comments
Comments
Might be interesting
He’s been strictly a reliever in the majors and minors since 2005, but he was a starter before that. Didn’t last particularly long in his starts on average, though – 26 starts in 2004 and only 122 innings pitched. That’s not even 5 a game.
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by Flashfire on Sep 9, 2008 10:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's an interesting concept
There are points both in favor and opposed.
In favor, he has the pitch mix of a starter. He has four pitches, which might help him get through a lineup multiple times. And as noted, he’s started before.
Opposed, his command is somewhat suspect, which is usually a problem for starters. Relievers tend to produce more than starters anyway, so he probably wouldn’t post a sub-4 ERA. Also, he has to get on the field before he can do so as a starter… which means he has to recover from this shoulder problem, whatever it is.
I think it’s something the team should at least consider, but it wouldn’t put me out (or surprise me) if they do so and decide it’s not realistic.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 9, 2008 10:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The shoulder problem seems like the biggest obstacle...
to pitching at all, let alone starting.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 9, 2008 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see it, and I don't understand the rush of people trying to convert Relievers to Starters right now
We already have a lot of starting pitching prospects in the Minors-we don’t really need anymore. In AAA next year we’ll already have Mazzaro, Outman, Cahill, Anderson and Simmons starting, who could all make it to the majors mid season if things break right for them. At the Major League level, we already have Gonzalez, Eveland, Smith and Gallagher in the rotation.
facepalm.jpg
by Zonis on Sep 9, 2008 10:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't say Gonzalez is guaranteed to start the season in Oakland next year at all
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Sep 10, 2008 12:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if anything, Braden is more deserving than Gonzalez is of a spot at the moment.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Sep 10, 2008 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
IMO
Gio is not going to be a starter come the beginning of the season unless his spring is phenomenal. Clearly, with braden’s recent success he has set himself up to at least compete not just for the no. 5 spot, but possibly the 3 or 4 spot. This is not me saying Braden is going to be amazing or anything, I just believe that’s the position he has put himself in. Duchsherer (barring trades) is the clear cut no. 1, and then from there it’s maybe Eveland? I believe with his success since coming back he has shown that he has made the necessary changes. Smith probably is pegged at 3, then Braden or Gallagher? I don’t know, the thing is that Gonzalez is clearly not ready yet, there is no way around that. Give him a real half season or so in Sacto and then bring him up.
Anyone know how the coaches like to line up the staff? If there are 3 lefties, do they like to go L-R-L-R-L or could we go with a righty, three lefties, and then a righty. In reality, it really doesn’t matter if done this way, other than the fear of having all three lefties in a three game series against a team that is stronger against them.
by stranahanahan on Sep 10, 2008 12:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Braden's Era in 9 starts: 3.42
better than everyone but Duke. I know it’s a small sample size but he has also pitched 7+ in 3 of those, and if not for leaving early on Friday because of whatever it was, he most likely would have gotten in at least 7. I think he has shown that he is at least as valuable right now as Smith or Eveland…
by stranahanahan on Sep 10, 2008 12:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I can't help but find it amusing
that a guy who is essentially doing the same exact thing he’s been doing since he first got called up last year (viz, being a very slightly below average lefthanded pitcher) is suddenly getting praise from… well, almost everyone, actually, where a few weeks ago his name was practically a swearword around these parts.
People really need to stop looking at superficial numbers like ERA so much, especially for very young and inexperienced players.
Incidentally, while looking through my post archive and feeling smug about how early I noticed that Braden is actually not horrible, I notice that I have used the word “Braden” in 85 posts. That’s sort of scary.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 10, 2008 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was before he found another 4mph on his fastball, wasn't it?
by mikev on Sep 10, 2008 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, if by 4 you actually mean 0.8
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 10, 2008 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a big difference
2007: 1.62 WHIP, 6.72 ERA, .840 OPAA (72 2/3 IP)
2008: 1.33 WHIP, 3.72 ERA, .733 OPAA (67 1/2 IP)
by boilerdan on Sep 10, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, now stats that can determine if he's been lucky
He’s still a fly ball pitcher, though slightly less so than last year (not enough to account for a 3-run difference in ERA), which makes his 39 Ks in 67 1/3 IP more meaingful. Ziggy’s low K totals don’t mean as much because he gets tons of ground balls/double plays (and some of his IP are made up of double plays when other pitchers’ guys were on base). So Braden doesn’t get ground balls and doesn’t strike people out. He’s actually striking out less than last year (but also walking less).
It looks like Braden has benefitted from good defense. And that’s fine. Maybe he can be a #5 starter type. But he certainly isn’t good unless you’re comparing him to Dan Meyer.
by thejd44 on Sep 10, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely not staking the future on Braden
But I think there is much more to hang a hat on in 2008 vs. 2007 – yes, a solid #5 – every team needs one, not many teams have one. It’s not just the stats – I also watch games. He’s better this year.
by boilerdan on Sep 10, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
2007: 6.84 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 2.12 K/BB, .355 BABIP, 8.3% HR/FB, 56.4% LOB, 4.50 FIP
2008: 5.19 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 1.77 K/BB, .287 BABIP, 7.7% HR/FB, 75.4% LOB, 4.36 FIP
He. Is. The. Same. Pitcher.
Particularly once you account for the fact that he was K’ing and walking more guys because there were so many extra baserunners because his BABIP was so high.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 10, 2008 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems to me he's doing better at getting out of jams this year...
…if you look at the % LOB.
There’s your big difference.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Sep 10, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's become a gamer.
He learned how to buckle down. Get the big out. He’s learning how to win.
by mikev on Sep 10, 2008 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
%LOB is not really a repeatable skill
It’s one of the “big three” indicators that a guy is lucky or unlucky, along with BABIP and HR/FB.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 10, 2008 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever the case, like I said that's one of the big differences that has affected...
…other numbers like ERA. Leave more guys on and that’s the story.
Never said it’s repeatable or not, but at the same time there’s something to be said with getting better at preventing runners from scoring.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on Sep 10, 2008 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's an opinion, not a fact. seriously, why include that stat to make your point if you're going to say it doesn't count once others disagree
by stranahanahan on Sep 10, 2008 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
... it IS my point
My point is that his luck-based stats have changed a TON, and his skill-based stats have barely budged.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 10, 2008 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
show me proof that these are luck based skills
by stranahanahan on Sep 10, 2008 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
For BABIP, just go read “Moneyball.”
For LOB, read this. LOB has a very minor correlation with xFIP, which you can also look up at THT. Thing is, Braden’s xFIP is virtually the same as it was last year.
No more than a tiny fraction of the improvement in LOB% can be chalked up to better skill. The rest is regression to the mean, of the most banal and basic sort.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 10, 2008 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i get your point
i have not read moneyball, to be honest. but, can you honestly say that the difference between a 6 something era and a 3 something era in this specific case in purely based on luck?
i don’t believe that a 20% increase in runners left on base is purely left to luck. i respectfully disagree this time, but at the same time agree to some of your points.
but you seem to shy away from the point made of making better pitches in difficult spots. do you completely disagree that he is learning where to attack hitters and where to stay away from putting a fastball down the middle?
also keep in mind that i am focusing on his stats since he started starting, which would make each of these stats significantly better than his 2008 season as a whole, each one of them i believe. obviously things were worked on when he went back to aaa and he has improved. yes, some of these stats are down, he’s striking out less batters, but maybe therein lied some of his problems, braden doesn’t have great velocity on his pitches, and while he struck out batters at great rates in the minors, he might have learned that he can’t do that in the majors.
i would be interested to see not how these stats such as LOB % or BABIP relate to the league average, but pitchers of similar style to Braden to see if that makes any difference.
that aside, if Braden’s current “luck” continues, wouldn’t you like to see him in the starting rotation?
by stranahanahan on Sep 11, 2008 1:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I think he probably should stay a starter regardless
Worst-case scenario, I don’t see how he’s any worse than a good (relatively speaking) #5 starter, so unless the A’s actually have 5 better pitchers he’s worth playing.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 11, 2008 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The short sentences are effective
To me.
At least.
Runs Please. A lot of them. The rest of the season. Thank you.
by One won lost won on Sep 10, 2008 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you are clearly
ignoring all the factors i and others have cited and think that whatever stats you have are right in every single instance. braden is winning games as a starter with a worse offense and arguably a worse if not similar defense than last year.
point is, you can show all the fancy stats you want it doesn’t make a difference if the guy continues to win games and give up a significant amount less runs than last year. if suddenly braden starts giving up more runs with the same stats than your point is made and i agree, but of the stats you have there are still 2 that prove why he has been a better pitcher this year:
2007: .355 BABIP
2008: .287 BABIP
you can’t argue that is a significant difference from last year, that is a big difference. also, keep in mind that he started the year as a reliever with the a’s and had some poor outings, so i can bet you that it’s closer to .275 or lower as a starter.
secondly:
2007: 56.4% LOB
2008: 75.4 % LOB
again, a significant drop off from last year and a big reason why he is winning more games and giving up less runs.
Not. The. Same. Pitcher.
This proves my point that the he is just learning how to pitch in the big leagues and is choosing his spots better. Maybe this is because of Suzuki’s game calling, who knows? but the point is, this is not the same pitcher and its because of what he pitches where and when.
Are you at least understanding my point? Would you agree he is at least put himself in a position in the starting rotation for your 2009 Oakland Athletics?
by stranahanahan on Sep 10, 2008 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 10, 2008 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a fighter not a lover...
but maybe you guys are both right.
PT’s main point seems to be that BABIP is usually based on luck. While stranahan is noticing that for whatever reason less runners are getting around to score. I think the problem with BABIP is it disrespects guys like Duke who make a living off guys hitting their pitches, poorly.
Maybe this is what Braden is learning. Also, with runners on base, if a pitcher can simply execute his pitches he still has a shot. We have seen how hard it is to get them around. If Braden is not getting flummoxed once guys get on base that could make a huge difference. I’d be totally happy if Braden could give us two or thee Gil Herediaesque seasons. (good Gil)
They're called RUNS for a reason.
by connie mack on Sep 10, 2008 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
im a lover
but one person is definitely wrong.
by oakinboston on Sep 11, 2008 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry... I seize any opportunity to use that graphic
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 11, 2008 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmmmm....
well first of all, i was just saying that Braden has pitched himself into a position to have a good chance at a spot in the rotation come next year. and i’m not throwing era around like it’s a golden number, but i’m simply making a point that it is down, in fact about half of what it was last year as a starter. i would find it amusing if you think that means nothing. I also find it amusing if you think era means nothing, because there is a difference between a pitcher with an era of 6 and one of 3.5, quite a difference.
and i think that it’s quite an assumption to say the guy has “essentially doing the exact same thing”, when how could you possibly know that unless you have watched his every start and analyze where he’s pitching what and in what counts, etc. Just because a guy has the same pitches at the same velocity one year to the next can really mean nothing.
take a closer look at where he’s locating pitches, how he handles certain hitters.
i’m in no way saying braden is the a’s white light or anything, but don’t pawn me off as some idiot because i cite a stat that you think is useless especially in young pitchers.
all i’m saying is that braden has significantly outpitched gio and gallagher, and has maintained good stats (not great) over a few starts.
by stranahanahan on Sep 10, 2008 1:28 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I thought this was a good idea last year
but isn’t there a glut of pitchers waiting in the wings now?
Let's have our Piazza and eat the Cust too - SPWC
by closetasfan on Sep 10, 2008 6:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Surplus of starters
The A’s do need a right handed starter but Brown would need some time in the minors to stretch out his arm and see if he can be a starter again. Looking at next years rotation of Braden, Smith, Duke, Eveland, and Galagher with Gio, Anderson, mazzaro, and Cahill looking in and Simmons close it will be hard for Brown making it. That said I look for Duke being traded in the offseason for a power hitter. I see a starter(duke or eveland) with street and (barton or Buck) for either Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder.
by Arcman on Sep 10, 2008 8:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Howard has too many strickouts.
Love him, but him and Cust in the same lineup would be brutal.
I see the future. I see cake.
by Blicks on Sep 10, 2008 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want to see Cust, Dunn, Howard back to back
Not only would they homer their way to victory most of the time, but they might walk the bases loaded!
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 10, 2008 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and it would give the traditional media one team on which to focus all of their anti-Moneyball hate
which has to be a good thing in the name of efficiency
by jdr on Sep 10, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ideally, Street is traded.
A pen of Ziegler, Devine, Outman, Blevins, Brown, and Casilla with Embree and Foulke gone. Brown stays in the pen, he’s coming from an injury and the last place the A’s need to put him is in the rotation.
I see the future. I see cake.
by Blicks on Sep 10, 2008 9:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He'll have more value on the trade market than any of the other relievers?
I dunno, I’m just guessing at why it would be “ideal”
I mean, ideal would be the Mets wanting Embree for David Wright.
by mikev on Sep 10, 2008 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
now we are giving up too little
somewhere there’s a happy medium
by jdr on Sep 10, 2008 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what if Embree shaved Nico's goat?
cocky whacko @('.')@
by monkeyball on Sep 11, 2008 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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