some of the A’s young arms for a good young hitter. I like several of the FAs but for various reasons (which you summarized) none of them sound like the way to go.

If our June 1st-round pick is in the top 10, it’s protected and the team losing the type-A gets a supplemental-round pick, right?

Because we’d need to take losing a 1st-rounder into account when thinking about depleting our farm system for one of these guys.

Since I think his body type makes him a good bet to stay healthy and productive for years, I settled on Bay.

He has club options for both 2009 & 2010 at a modest 8.25 & 10 million.

I’m sure the Rays would probably opt to sign Crawford. How does it work if the A’s traded for Crawford, would those club options transfer over?

Crawford is only 27, and while he doesnt fit the injury free bill (at least this year), he has tons of upside. Since you said you don’t care about position, he would be my pick. His speed is obvious, but he still has quite a bit of pop. He posted .800+ OPS seasons 3 years prior to this season.

He would be a risk though on the injury front.

I think of the group you identified, grover, he’ll probably require the least amount of total money to retain his services and probably has the most reliable (not the best, or the least likely to decline, but most reliable) projection over the next 3 years (i.e., before Carter and anyone else with power make it up).

Tex, as you pointed out, is going to require massive amounts of guaranteed money, and will surely get it, from the Angels, Orioles, or a third party (Mets?). Burrell may likely both outproduce Manny over the next 3 years, but he’ll require a lot more money/years, and as you say, Philly may push hard to keep him. Dunn I almost voted for, in the thought that he might remain undervalued on the market, but I have a feeling his “undervaluing” on the trade market the last 2 years may have more to do with Cinci’s methods and demands in marketing him.

I’m opposed in principle to signing Vlad, because he will break down the instant he leaves the proximity of the magic Flintstones boulders. Holliday I’m not sold on, Bay will likely be extended by the Sox this year or next before hitting FA, and Ankiel’s too much of a wild card (pun intended).

That said, I don’t think Beane will actually sign any of these guys. (I’m guessing Manny actually ends up in … SF.)

I’m not sure what your rationale for insisting that I defend that assertion is though.

Another interesting note about Burrell is that he has Bay Area ties – he attended Bellarmine College Prep in San Jose.

Another argument in your favor is that, if we look even farther into the future, the ‘11 class (headlined by Scott Kazmir) doesn’t come close to equaling either ’09 or ’10 for hitters.

And although some people like ‘12 (Fielder, Francoeur, Ryan Howard, Zimmerman), I wouldn’t want to invest long term in those guys for the kind of dollars they’ll garner.

‘13 (assuming they don’t sign extensions): B.J. Upton, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young.

I loved your research and commentary. I personally voted “other”, because I hope they save their cash to make a ~$150MM or more investment in Justin Upton in ’14 or Travis Snider in ’15. Those guys will hit free agency at 26 years old, with their entire peaks in front of them, just as A-Rod and Vlad did.

I hope the team keeps payroll at 40-60 million for the next few years and saves money to splurge all the way to 100 million for Fremont, when Cahill and co. are in their prime.

So that would put Barton at DH, and unless Cust is gone, that makes our outfield too crowded.

And if Cust is gone, I don’t think he would have enough protection in the lineup. You could just pitch around him

earlier this year. But didn’t Beane already get rid of the guy who tore up the post game spread?

Teixeira- If he’s getting a 7-10 yr deal, no. Tex is Scott Boras’s prize gem this offseason.

Manny- Would he even come to Oaktown? He’s an attention whore, pure and simple. If he would, I’d like him. Not at more than 16-17MM/yr and no more than 3 yrs with an option for a 4th.

Burrell and Bay- Not impact enough to warrant their potential contracts IMHO.

Holliday- Borass client; will be looking for 7+ years.

Dunn- I like that idea. Put him at DH. You’re also not paying for defense when paying for Dunn, unlike Teixeira/Holliday.

Vlad- Ew.

Would you guys agree that, philosophically, Beane tries to put the best defensive team possible on the field in recent years?

I think the A’s value defense more than most teams. I think the A’s are less likely than other teams to put a guy like Ty Wiggington at third even if he’s a train wreck just to get a 20 home run hitter in the lineup. The team prefers to have good defenders that give their pitchers confidence, even if it means the offense suffers as a result. The defense and the pitching staff rank highly, and the offense doesn’t.

This impacts FA signings too. Several elite FAs are bad defenders, and even if they switch to DH, who knows how they’ll respond to that? Some players really dislike being a DH and hit better when they’re playing a position in the field. But if they’re in the field, they’re playing poor D.

Personally, if Dunn is relatively affordable and is willing to commit to never, ever, ever taking the field, I’d have no problem DH’ing Dunn and starting Cust in LF. Let all the other low-SLG OFs fight it out for CF/RF/4th/5th slots, warehouse the others in Sacto, and trade anyone who either puts up an uncharacteristic (and not projectable to be sustained) midseason power spike.

I mean, OPS is OPS is OPS, and outs are outs are outs. And if Dunn is undervalued on the trade and FA markets, then Cust surely would be even more so. Signing Dunn and getting rid of Cust (yes, Dunn is better than Cust; but Cust is astonishingly cheap, especially for his OPS:$ ratio) seems kind of arbitrary and pointless to me.

If you’ve got private e-mail I may want to find out what other forms of kink you’re in to.

Furcal. Why is he not in the mix? I would love to have an accomplished 30 year old switch-hitter who plays plus defense, and I’d love any excuse to punt Crosby into the next county and beyond. His surgery might make him affordable to the A’s in a way he would ordinarily not be. Shouldn’t Furcal at least be in the conversation?

A very preliminary list includes:

Derrek Lee (9/6/75)
Aramis Ramirez (6/25/78)
Victor Martinez (12/23/78)
Jorge Cantu (1/30/82)
Austin Kearns (5/20/80)
Carlos Pena (5/17/78)
Kevin Youkilis (3/15/79)
Garrett Atkins (12/12/79)
Brad Hawpe (6/22/79)
Joe Mauer (4/19/83)
Jermaine Dye (1/28/74)

A lot can happen between now and when these guys hit FA.

Otherwise, I say, hey, if you are going to throw all your money into the pot, you might as well get someone good. But if you can’t get the best guy for $30 million, then grab two for $15. The problem is that almost all the guys you list are in the Outfield, and thats the one place on this team where we have offensive depth, besides the annual first base trials and tribultions.

So I say go for Mark Teixiera. He can hit in the AL, he can play good defense, and he is young enough that he probably will not kill you early in the contract. If you can’t get Tex, grab 2 of Bay, Ankien and Holliday.

none of these guys are guys I’d like to sign bc of either years or money. i really hope someone else becomes a viable option to sign that can bolster offense…i hear barry lamar is still around.

for the “big bat” this off-season or likely even next – most of these guys are flawed and will be overpaid anyway. We traded for Carlos Gonzalez, who could develop into an impact bat and we traded for Cunningham, Sweeney, Cardenas, and Carter, one of whom is likely to excel as a big league hitter. Getting them when they’re younger and not great yet is a cheaper and safer approach.

I can see Billy taking fliers on Giambi or Furcal as short-term solutions that won’t break the bank or over-commit for too long. I don’t see shelling out 50-100 million for these guys.

Why sign vets to block young guys when they come up?

If I had to choose, I’d say Bay, but I’d prefer to wait for everybody to develop.

I doubt very much that he doesn’t re-sign with Boston. If Ankiel actually hits the market, he’d be my second choice …

FA 2010, also might be easy to acquire from Balt for cheap talent, $8 mil a year, still leaves lots of room for maneuvering.

this week that they may “gut the team” because they’re frustrated with their inability to rebuild successfully. They have some players that would interest me, from Billy Butler (sign Russell Branyan and have an awesome DH platoon) to DeJesus (dang, another OFer!) to Alex Gordon (at worst a heck of an upgrade over Hannahan) and so on.

So a few weeks ago, Nico asked the rhetorical (well, to us fans at least, as the FO likely doesn’t operate on a “democracy rules” sort of principle) question of how to add a hitter. Just to note: I mentioned Manny then….

Link

And I’ll stick with it still. If you’re going for someone to really pull the team going fw, there’s no greater FT-type of threat (and FT’s done, so forget keeping him around) than ManRam. He’s going to be costly, no doubt, but he could be the type of player who “builds a ballpark”. Convenient to have come 2011. So make 2009-2012 (ManRam’s 37-40 years) playing time worth it. To my knowledge (though limited it may be), there’s no other team with a pending ballpark coming on-line soon, so this should “force” the A’s hand to obtain a “celebrity” player to carry us through the new ballpark era.

To show what a good/schizophrenic lawyer I can be, I’ll also argue against myself: Wolfe already said the business model of keeping around old men for the DH celebrity role at high prices (read: Piazza’s contract), isn’t going to continue into the future. This suggests ‘we’ might start off the career of a Doolittle or Carter as a DH. This would be the cheap way out, albeit more risky.

If we are assuming Ellis is gone, isn’t Hudson an improvement? only a bit worse in defense, and for sure an offensive improvement (greatly)
will his recent injury make his deal similar to ellis? same age, i dunno about you but i would welcome a guy like hudson.
I’m sure many will respond with their OPS example because it seems to be the one stat everyone swear by, but the guy is a solid and consistent player. look at his stats the last 5 years and they are almost identical, with some improvement each year…

What do they do when Cardenas is ready? Weeks?

and weeks maybe of, or 3b. i’m just thinking of filling a hole this offseason, neither is within 2 years, so what if we give him 3 or 4 with an option, those guys will be hitting their stride.
just a thought.
i would for sure like to see him

I’d rather give 4 years 40 mil to Adrian Beltre.

A run saved on D is just as good as a run scored on O, and there are none better at that than Beltre. Coupled with an .800 OPS bat and he’ll only be 30 (though I question that a bit) and this public perception that he hasn’t lived up to his contract lowering his value and you have the makings of a good FA signing.

The A’s VORP (considering the A’s possible replacements at 1b or OF) dictates the need for a 3B much more.