Double the Recap, Double the Fun (does not apply to today's games)
We had to watch these awful games, so all you have to do is read the recaps. Since Louis and I both had games, we both wrote recaps. Enjoy! They're FOR SURE more fun than the games were!
baseballgirl
Shockingly, in the first game of the twin bill, A’s managed to do something that they haven’t done much this second half: compete in a game where their starting pitcher was less than sharp. Of course, in true A’s fashion, ‘competing’ means ‘taking the game all the way to extra innings and losing in the tenth instead of the third’, but what can you do? And why does bonus baseball turn up at the most inopportune times, such as game one of a long three days of baseball.
Dana Eveland pitched an uneventful first couple of innings, but ran into trouble in the third, as the Royals put two runners on with one out, and then allowed another infield hit to load the bases. The Royals, who apparently can hit with runners in scoring position, wasted no time driving in two runs courtesy of Billy Butler, another run courtesy of a wild pitch, and the last run on yet another hit. When all was said and done, the A’s were down 4-0 before the third inning was completed.
The downside of playing a possible five games in three days is that you sometimes have to leave a struggling pitcher out there to get hit (especially in the first game), and the A’s did just that. But instead of getting pounded further (see: Meyer, Dan), Eveland turned it around after escaping the third, and despite giving up ten hits on the day, the 4-spot in the third would be the last runs he would give up; helped, no doubt, by his zero walks and five strikeouts, and several outs made on the basepaths by the Royals.
In an interesting move (keeping in mind that the A’s are playing the first game of a double-header with another one looming Saturday), despite Eveland’s relatively low pitch-count, he was pulled after the sixth (and 83 pitches) and Huston Street came out of the ‘pen in the seventh to continue his audition for a future closer role. He pitched two scoreless innings, allowing only a single hit and recording a pair of strikeouts, and looked good doing it. Joey Devine and his super-sparkly ERA pitched a perfect ninth, but an error by Bobby Crosby led to the walk-off Royals’ victory in the tenth, handing Devine his first loss of the year.
You might ask how the A’s managed to score the four runs to pick up their struggling starting pitcher and send the game to extras in the first place, but surprisingly (and with a little help from a Royals error), the A’s had a “big” inning in the fifth, as Patterson singled with one out, Sweeney reached on the error, Crosby singled in one run, and Cust doubled in two.
Daric Barton homered to tie the game in the sixth, but in another interesting decision by the bench, was called on to bunt a runner to second in the eighth. Had the game mattered, I would have questioned this move to no end. Barton is the hottest hitter on the A’s, by a long shot, and in my opinion, his at-bat was wasted on a sacrifice bunt, especially when it brought up the bottom of the lineup.
The A’s did not score again, and after the error opened the door in the tenth, the Royals seized the moment, and the game, 5-4.
The second game started out as you might expect if you knew Dan Meyer was going to be pitching. He allowed eight runs; seven of them earned, and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning. Anyone surprised? He was followed by Saarloos, Embree, Foulke and Blevins as the A’s tried to mount a comeback. (Stop laughing.)
On the other side of the mound, Davies threw a hundred and one pitches over his five innings, but held the A’s to a single run; an RBI double by Ryan Sweeney. The A’s mounted two more threats later in the game, but couldn’t pull off the sheer quantity of runs that they needed. Sweeney duplicated his earlier effort in the seventh, bringing in Pennington and Davis on another RBI double, and Barton knocked Sweeney in with a sacrifice fly. In the ninth, off the Royals’ sixth pitcher (they would use seven total), the A’s were able to get two more runs home via a Cust double and a Barton ground-out, but the six runs were just a tease, since they gave away nine. This team is terrible.
Bottom line: The A’s go down in a sweep today, and a sweep of the series, and now limp into Baltimore to face a team that is playing as badly (if that’s even possible). It will be the series that both sides just try not to lose.
We can only hope for better times.
louismg
In the 1950s and 1960s, Ernie Banks personified the love of baseball with his perennial smile and pledge to "Let's Play Two!" during his time with the Cubs. But over the last few decades, the number of scheduled double headers has virtually been eliminated, with teams wanting to maximize every fan dollar and potential television revenue. With today presenting the opportunity to witness such a rare event, I was hopeful we could see the A's capitalize on their unrequested day off, and snare a pair from the Kansas City Royals. But it was not meant to be. One game was lost late, and the other, lost almost immediately, but in the end, they both counted the same, as the A's dropped the contests 5-4, and 9-6, in a game that, to be honest, really wasn't that close.
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The A's fell 1/2 game behind Baltimore with this sweep -
so I guess in a sense the A’s will “win either way” over the weekend.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Sep 4, 2008 8:48 PM PDT 0 recs
That's depressing
So, bring on Bonds! Or, not... then, bring back Langerhans!! -One won lost one
by baseballgirl on
Sep 4, 2008 8:49 PM PDT
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Quick question:
Why is Brooks Conrad being greeted by a homeless heroin addict, and has anyone seen Travis Buck?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Sep 4, 2008 8:51 PM PDT 0 recs
He still looks a little out of it
And it looks like he missed the forearm bash. Okay, I lied. He looks a lot out of it.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
by DMOAS on
Sep 4, 2008 10:29 PM PDT
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Know what I don't like about that picture?
Grass stains on the front of Travis’ jersey. He needs to work more on his NOT-diving catches.
Ray: "How fun is it to be up here playing in the Big Leagues?"
Gio: "It's *SUPER* fun!!!"
by Poppy on
Sep 5, 2008 7:38 AM PDT
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another question
Why are the Rivercats now Orange and Black?
If you’re not lying, i recommend seeing a doctor. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Sep 5, 2008 9:44 AM PDT
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It's people!
The orange and blacks unis are made from people!
Wait, what?
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on
Sep 5, 2008 10:42 AM PDT
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The parent club is dying! Don't you see!!!
You have to tell them, Leopld-TELL EVERYONE!!!
This came on TCM a couple of weeks ago and I recorded it on the TiVo. Since then I have been torturing the family-as soon as someone gets and walks a step or two away from the TV they get to here Chuck Heston at his overacting best.
I even threatened to run it on a loop at a party we were having, but then Mrs. Aces reminded me that I am the only one 1) old enough and 2) that much of a pop culture moron to actually know and care about what soylent green is…
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
by 5Aces on
Sep 5, 2008 11:21 AM PDT
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No.
You get back in there and you tell her, FiveAces! You tell her, “People know, damnit—they know!”
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on
Sep 5, 2008 11:28 AM PDT
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The first half of the season
seems so very distant
by SwisherThresher on Sep 4, 2008 8:51 PM PDT 0 recs
Gallagher was relieved in the Rivercats game
by “Anderson” – is that Brett? (He has given up 4 hits and 2 ER in 1.2 IP.)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Sep 4, 2008 8:52 PM PDT 0 recs
I think so
He was listed on their roster earlier today.
by thejd44 on
Sep 4, 2008 8:53 PM PDT
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What's sad is that the A's scored 4 and 5 runs in the two games
And still lost both.
by thejd44 on Sep 4, 2008 8:52 PM PDT 0 recs
5 runs (6, actually) is moot when Meyer is pitching.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on
Sep 4, 2008 9:00 PM PDT
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Oh, I stopped watching. They got a 6th?
Well, yes, that’s true. I’ve been in support of giving Meyer every opportunity, but he just can’t do it. I guess the silver lining is the A’s found out in games that don’t matter.
Once Gallagher or Duke come back, I assume Meyer is the guy who doesnt start anymore. I’m ok with that. I would like to see them try him as a lefty specialist though.
by thejd44 on
Sep 4, 2008 9:04 PM PDT
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Exactly - the A's needed to use this time to find out
conclusively about Meyer, who had actually been pitching quite well in AAA for 5-6 weeks prior to his first callup. Now I feel good about them dropping him from the 40-man roster, which they will probably have to do.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 4, 2008 9:22 PM PDT
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Yep
He’s ended all doubt.
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
by Flashfire on
Sep 4, 2008 9:49 PM PDT
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I can't pinpoint exactly when it was...
…that I decided Meyer wasn’t going to make it. Just after his last start or the one before that. But, seriously, this guy is showing me nothing.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on
Sep 4, 2008 10:05 PM PDT
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I just don't understand why they aren't doing the same thing with Pennington
by thejd44 on
Sep 4, 2008 10:26 PM PDT
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What, dropping him from the 40-man roster?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 5, 2008 12:33 AM PDT
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I assume he means playing him until he proves he can't play.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 5, 2008 2:28 AM PDT
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Yeah, I assumed that too, but it was funnier to pretend I didn't
For better or for worse, I think Pennington has a 40-man slot wrapped up, unless he is beyond awful with the bat. A guy who can PR and play any position is fairly useful— hell, it explains why Willie Bloomquist still has a job…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 5, 2008 9:33 AM PDT
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Only thing better is a LH pitcher with a pulse.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on
Sep 5, 2008 9:37 AM PDT
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I think I heard on the pre-game
That this is the longest string of consecutive games the A’s have ever gone (Oakland or KC) without scoring 6 runs, it’s been 30-something straight. Irrelavant. Uninspired. Yes the first half seems like a such a distant memory.
Baja been here
by bajablue on
Sep 5, 2008 7:28 AM PDT
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Meyer's last stand
Well we know one thing after tonight is not to waste a 40 man space on Meyers for next season. The A’s should take him off now and send him down to Sacramento. Atleast they know no other team would pick him up.
by Arcman on Sep 4, 2008 9:31 PM PDT 0 recs
No! Sacamento is actually playing for something!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 4, 2008 9:33 PM PDT
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Meyer will stay until the end of the season, but probably in the pen.
Especially with Duke probably out for the season.
I see the future. I see cake.
by Blicks on
Sep 5, 2008 7:55 AM PDT
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Meyer's Last (Lemonade) Stand

Made With Meyer Lemons
Enjoy the game
by DCinWC on
Sep 5, 2008 9:09 AM PDT
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Awesome
That was exactly my first thought when reading “Meyer’s Last Stand” as well!
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
by oblique on
Sep 5, 2008 10:18 AM PDT
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When I heard "Meyer's Last Stand"
I thought of paraphrasing a Bill James quote that was in Moneyball (which I started rereading to remember what fun baseball can be)
Meyer needs more starts the way Custer needed more Indians, or the way the Indians needed more Custers.
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
by 5Aces on
Sep 5, 2008 11:24 AM PDT
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The Stockton Ports made a nice comeback.
They were down 6 – 2 and in the bottom of the 7th they have the lead, 7 – 6, from a solo HR by Chris Carter.
by Coffee13eans on Sep 4, 2008 9:50 PM PDT 0 recs
Sweet - Brett Anderson got hit kind of hard for Sacramento
(4 IP, 6 hits, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K) but oh well. He’s 20.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 4, 2008 9:56 PM PDT
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Even Cy Young lost a few.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on
Sep 4, 2008 10:02 PM PDT
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Yeah, but they were all 1-0 complete games
I generally bemoan the profusion of Mr Sabermetric Sporks in the Scrabble ranks who don't know the meaning or usage of 50% of the words they use. -monkeyball
by JediLeroy on
Sep 4, 2008 11:49 PM PDT
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That fact that the organization feels comfortable using him in the AAA playoffs is a good sign
Even if he struggles a little.
It’s sick to think he’s only 20. Even if he spends all of 2009 in AAA and doesn’t get a real chance to pitch with the A’s until 2010, he’s way, way ahead of the game.
by thejd44 on
Sep 4, 2008 10:26 PM PDT
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Ooooh. Was that HR number 40 or did I miss that one?
by danmerqury on
Sep 4, 2008 10:09 PM PDT
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Unfortunately, postseason minors stats don't "count"
You basically have to remember they happened to pay any attention to them.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 5, 2008 12:34 AM PDT
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Damn!
We sure could use his power up here on the big squad………..soon, my friends……..soon.
by mrod on Sep 4, 2008 10:44 PM PDT 0 recs
I don't think we'll see Carter up before 2010
and even then probably a midseason callup.
As for Meyer I’m all for letting him stick for the rest of the year in the rotation. Either
A. he pitches better and figures it out, showing himself worth a roster spot next year.
or
B. he sucks and the A’s lose all his games and improve the A’s draft pick
win-win imo.
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's
by iamawesomer on
Sep 4, 2008 11:23 PM PDT
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Go Raiders!
That is all.
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Sep 4, 2008 11:24 PM PDT 0 recs
Glass half full?
A’s now in #9 draft position, only 3.5 games back from #4 position!!!!
Baltimore 63 76 .453 22.5
Oakland 63 77 .450 23
Cincinnati 62 78 .443 24
Atlanta 61 80 .433 25.5
Kansas City 60 79 .432 25.5
San Francisco 60 79 .432 25.5
Pittsburgh 59 80 .424 26.5
Seattle 54 85 .388 31.5
San Diego 54 86 .386 32
Washington 54 87 .383 32.5
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
"any fan that wants us to do that is going to be disappointed because that just isn’t us."
by ST on Sep 4, 2008 11:49 PM PDT 0 recs
i'm hoping the a's end up with the #5 or #6 pick
a high draft pick, but more wins than the giants and mariners.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on
Sep 5, 2008 12:28 AM PDT
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Looks like Pittsburgh is eminently catchable. They'll really have to work to catch Seattle.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 5, 2008 2:30 AM PDT
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The rest of the way.....
After Baltimore, the final games are: Texas – 7 (they have literally embarrased us every series this year, maybe 2 wins here?) LA of Fullerton – 3 (should lose them all as we have only played well against them this year in Anaheim) Detroit – 3 (pitching is bad, but their offense is waaaaaay better- maybe 1 win here) Seattle – 6 (they have been terrible all year, however, their offense is still better and the A’s are a mere 7-6 against the M’s. Possibly 3-4 wins here). So, if we win only once against Baltimore this weekend then we are looking at maybe 7 or 8 wins at best the rest of the year. I think they need to do worse than 70 wins to get a top 6 draft pick, so I guess we have to hope for Cinci, Atl, KC, and Pit to do well the rest of the way. We just helped ourselves big time by getting swept by the Royals, so that’s a good start, no?
Gonzalez, De Los Santos, Anderson, Cahill, Simmons...the best rotation in baseball....in, uh 2010.
by J Mack on
Sep 5, 2008 8:45 AM PDT
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I have tickets for all three games against Texas
the Tuesday 916 games agaisnt the Angels, and the final home Friday and Sunday against the Mariners..
by OaklandSi on
Sep 5, 2008 9:07 AM PDT
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This rebuilding job ...
better be the best one ever. Because being forced to watch this team is brutal.
Seriously, what the organization is putting on the field right now is not major-league caliber baseball … if Beane and Co. are going to ask me to be patient and watch really, really horrifically embarassing baseball, then this team better be playing like the ‘27 Yankees in a couple seasons.
I’ll give ’em a pass for now, but putting a minor league caliber team on the field and then explaining it away as “rebuilding” only lasts so long.
I needed a team so I wouldn’t turn into one of the eighty million pink hat-wearing Bud Light-drinking mulleted idiots at Fenway.
by Vacafan on Sep 5, 2008 7:00 AM PDT 0 recs
+1
Because the fall has purposely been so far, the expectations are that much higher. No more of this be competitive and the post-season is a crapshoot crap. I want to see a WS title or two.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on
Sep 5, 2008 8:02 AM PDT
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Sadly
I think the team was over-achieving in the first half, both Smith and Eveland were having success, Harden started looking good, they were winning games. this season should have actually been A LOT worse. and next season projects no better. I hope the theory is a piece meal rebuilding takes longer than a wholesale rebuilding and the end results are better.
Enjoy the game
by DCinWC on
Sep 5, 2008 9:06 AM PDT
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Except that...
…for the most part, the pitching has still been pitching well enough to win more games than the team has of late.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on
Sep 5, 2008 9:35 AM PDT
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Except the post-season IS a crapshoot.
The A’s could go 162-0 and still be pretty likely to lose in the playoffs. 100-win teams don’t win the World Series as often as they “should.”
by thejd44 on
Sep 5, 2008 9:07 AM PDT
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I don't really buy the crapshoot theory...
…at least not to the extent that some use it. I think it has become a crutch for some.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on
Sep 5, 2008 9:33 AM PDT
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Either you have no understanding of the laws of probability,
or you choose to believe in divine intervention countervoking it. No offense, but I really have zero tolerance for people “not buying” reality.
There is literally no other explanation for anyone not believing the postseason is a crapshoot. The statement is factually true. I mean, the entire f***ing point of the postseason is to be a crapshoot. It’s obviously far more logical to decide the championship based on the regular season, but that’s not nearly as exciting.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 5, 2008 9:41 AM PDT
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Only one team can win it all, obvsiously...
…and usually all the teams in the post-season are very good teams, so of course there’s no way for all the good teams to win all the time. Duh! Hence my “not to the extent that some use it” verbiage.
What do you think? Do you think that a team can maximize their potential for success… IOW: build a team in a specific way… for the post-season? Or, do you really think it matters not one whit?
The A’s M.O. of late has been to build for the regular season specifically, i.e. station-to-station, walks, hope for a single big inning, pitching, etc., and they haven’t exactly been secretive about that. In the post-season things like manufacturing runs, speed, and taking an extra base, have more impact than they do over the course of a long regular season, precisely because there isn’t time in a short series for things to even out like they would in a long regular season. As a result, by choosing to not build teams that are capable of taking advantage when opportunities arise, the A’s have chosen to place themselves at a disadvantage for post-season success, hence the “crutch” of trying to sluff it off as a “crapshoot”. Hey, if we didn’t plan appropriately for the next step, and didn’t expect anything, and are happy with almost making it, we can still feel good about ourselves, because, ya know… we didn’t actually say we thought we could win it all.
Does that mean they’ll never win. Of course not. It just means they have to overcome some self-imposed barriers to do so. Or hope that divine intervention goes their way. Maybe that’s the “crapshoot” they’re talking about.
The whole thing reminds me of disclaimers at the end of weight-loss infomercials:
WE HAVE DEVELOPED THE BEST PROVEN WEIGHT-LOSS AID EVER!!! WE’LL SHOW YOU THREE PEOPLE WHO HAVE LOST 200 LBS IN SIX MONTHS USING OUR PROGRAM!!! (Your results may vary)
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on
Sep 5, 2008 10:41 AM PDT
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to follow your closing metaphor ...
… you seem to be advocating that, instead of a sensible Beanean built-for-the-sustainable-long-haul eat-less-and-exercise-more lifestyle, people should instead prepare their lives along the lines of wrestlers purging to make weight under extreme circumstances.
If you’re not lying, i recommend seeing a doctor. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Sep 5, 2008 11:14 AM PDT
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I wrestled in high school
and, this one time, I came in (surprise!) above weight the day-of. I exercised so vigorously to make weight, I had literally no energy left for the match. I needed steroid or amphetamines in the worst kind of way.
I see a deranged rabbit, on fire, cowering away from a vagina. I await the results of the Rorschaschererer. -Nico
by Leopold Bloom on
Sep 5, 2008 11:30 AM PDT
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Except that the postseason is still the same game.
You can’t really build a team for the postseason. What’s the difference? Unless they add a fifth base in October, or move the fences 50 feet in, it’s still the same game. Mathematically and statistically, everything holds. “Taking advantage when opportunities arise” means just as much in the regular season as it does in the postseason. Playing smallball and “manufacturing runs” has the same exact chance of winning you a game in June as it does in October.
The only way you can really “build for the postseason” I can think of is having 3 aces and 2 Dan Meyers in the rotation as opposed to 5 decent pitchers, and that only works because the postseason schedule allows for carrying a three-man rotation.
by danmerqury on
Sep 5, 2008 11:17 AM PDT
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The difference is time.
In the regular season, if a few things don’t go your way, it’s generally lost in the vast length of the season itself, and is usually made up for somewhere. Maybe even 4 months later. The bloop single, stolen base and passed ball that cost you a game in May might be offset by your own double-steal in September, as an example.
In a short series, what happens now has an impact now, and you may not get a chance to “correct” it at a later date. If Frank Thomas gets a bloop single, he ain’t stealin’ nothin’. Unless somebody walks or hits, he’ll never be in scoring position.
If you have somebody like a Rajai Davis or Eric Patterson on the roster, though, you can PR for FT, and suddenly you have a threat to make something happen in a close game… and that one game game may be the difference maker in the short series. We’ve seen it happen several times this season alone. The only difference being those were just regular games without the immediacy.
I don’t think you can build a team for the post-season specifically. My point is that there can, and should, be a little forethought along those lines and that some balance would be in order for when the post-season comes.
Patience and relying on walks is great, but again in the post-season you’ve put yourself at a disadvantage. One, the pitchers tend to be better and less likely to fall for it, and two, managers aren’t going to leave an ineffective pitcher in as long as he would in a long season. It’s more than random chance, it’s people reacting to the immediate situation, and you need to be able to counteract accordingly.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on
Sep 5, 2008 12:28 PM PDT
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Yeah that whole patience and walks thing totally failed for the Red Sox in the postseason
oh wait…
Its a damn crapshoot.
Just mathematically, say you think one team is a 3:2 favorite over the other (which would be huge). so the odds of team A (the favorite), winning a game is .600, and the odds of team b winning is .400.
In a 5 game series, the underdog can win in 3, 4, or 5 games.
The odds of them winning in 3 games is (.400)^3, or .064.
The odds of them winning in 4 games are (.4)^3 x .6 × 3 or .1152 (they lose one game, the first, second, or third, which is the 3 in the equation).
The odds of them winning in 5 games are (.4)3 x (.6)2 × 6 or (lose games one&two, one&three, one&four, two&three, two&four, or three&four) or .13824
So, a 3:2 underdog wins a 5 game series .31744 or almost 1/3 of the time. Pretty damn often if you ask me.
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's
by iamawesomer on
Sep 5, 2008 1:48 PM PDT
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And a 3:2 favorite is frigging enormous in the context of playoff baseball
That’s loosely (the math is really more involved than this but I see no reason to go off on an extended rant) an advantage of one run per game, or 16 wins over a full season. So if you have a 100-win juggernaut going up against a pansy 84-win team that limped in from a weak division, you’d expect the bad team to win 1/3 of the time.
I mean…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 5, 2008 2:01 PM PDT
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Please point out where I said...
…or even implied… that anything was absolute.
Can you point me to the 31.7% of the 3:2 underdogs that won a 5 game series and the 68.3% of underdogs that lost a 5 game series?
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
by UncleLeo on
Sep 5, 2008 2:20 PM PDT
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There are hardly ever any 3:2 favorites
It’s hard to point it out when it doesn’t happen that much.
My point was that mathematically a huge underdog is going to win a 5 game series 1/3 of the time. I mean just look at the past two playoffs, none of these were 3:2 situations (maybe STL vs DET) but the underdog still won.
07
CLE beating NY, AZ beating CHI
06
OAK beating MIN, STL beating SD, then STL beating NY, then STL beating DET
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by iamawesomer on
Sep 5, 2008 4:15 PM PDT
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On the one hand it makes sense...
…that a huge favorite would win most of the time. But in a sense doesn’t that confirm that the better team wins most of the time, rather than confirm random chance?
What happens if the difference between the favorite and underdog is less distinct? Does it get closer to 50/50?
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by UncleLeo on
Sep 5, 2008 7:05 PM PDT
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All of these arguments have been trotted out, and imploded, on numerous prior occasions
If smallball had a beneficial effect, smallball teams would win more often in the playoffs. They don’t. If drawing walks had a negative effect on your chances, teams that drew lots of walks would lose more often. They don’t.
There are literally only three things you can do in the postseason, in order of importance:
1. Get lucky.
2. Be good at baseball.
3. Have very good top starters and top relievers.
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by PaulThomas on
Sep 5, 2008 2:09 PM PDT
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