As Easy As 1-2-3: The A's Can Shine In '09
I don't know whom the A's will or won't in fact pursue in trades or the free agent market, but that won't stop me from using specifics to make a general point: that the A's are not actually that far from being competitive in 2009 while still "staying the course" on building a solid foundation for 2010-2014. So as the off-season officially begins, here's a sample scenario with which I'd be jiggy:
Part 1
On the free agent market, with the payroll flexibility to make a competitive offer the A's can afford to pursue Rafael Furcal, whose price tag will inevitably be lowered by his May back surgery. I would most certainly jump at the chance to offer sign Furcal to a 1-2 year deal but I also would not shy away from committing to a 4-5 year deal if the medical outlook is strong.
Furcal has already come back from his back surgery to play a few games for the Dodgers and it appears his surgery and recovery were basically successful. He will turn just 31 in October, and he fills needs that are substantial up and down the organization: a SS and a true leadoff hitter. Prior to a down year in 2007, for four seasons (2003-06) Furcal's OPS ranged from .758 to .814, while he averaged 14 HRs and 34 steals in 42 attempts. Then he was off-the-charts good in 2008 before his surgery, proving that 2007 was not the start of any decline (probably it was more a sign that he needed the surgery). If Furcal can come back anywhere near as strong as before, he's worth a lot and if the A's are not splurging for a free agent power hitter like Dunn or Burrell, they can well afford to nab Furcal as a solution to the organizational black hole that has been SS.
Part 2
The A's go after Troy Glaus - yes, a team rebuilding for 2010 on tries to deal for a guy with one year left on his contract. Why? Because Glaus can help give the A's a shot at being competitive in 2009 and there's no saying they couldn't look at a possible contract extension if both parties wanted. Glaus would be a huge addition to the A's lineup and he would be great insurance for the uncertainty about where Eric Chavez will be able to play. Potentially, you could play Chavez at 3B for 75 games and DH for another 60, while putting Glaus at 3B for 75 games and DH for another 80 - with flexibility to give or take on the exact numbers as Chavez' shoulder goes.
The A's have pieces to offer that should appeal to the Cardinals, from Huston Street to a young starting pitcher (be it Eveland, Braden, or - gasp - Mazzaro) to Bobby Crosby, who could thrive in the National League with a new organization, would be expendable if the A's signed Furcal, and who would be an upgrade for St. Louis over the status quo that is Cesar Izturis. I could see a win-win package emerging from those pieces - perhaps it's Street and Crosby that wind up packing for Missouri.
Part 3
Maybe it's overkill, but let's say the A's go one step further and "buy low" on Ryan Garko, a 27 year old 1Bman whose lousy first half in 2008 obscured the fact that for three of the last four half seasons he has been excellent. After batting .289/.359/.483 (.842 OPS) with 21 HRs in 2007, Garko rebounded from a pre-All Star Break thud (.668 OPS) to revert right back to form in the second half (.315/.385/.480, an .865 OPS). Garko also rakes left-handed pitching, slugging .503 and posting a near .900 OPS (.896) for his career.
What would it take to get Garko from the Indians, who have Matt LaPorta and Victor Martinez potentially in the 1B mix, with minor league sluggers Wes Hodges and Beau Mills on the way? Probably not all that much. The Indians' biggest current needs are pitching based, both starting and closing, meaning they should also covet Street (if he's not dealt elsewhere first) and should also be keen on the A's haul of major league ready starters. Perhaps it's a young starter, like Mazzaro, who ends up packing for Ohio.
April, 2009
So let's imagine that after inking Furcal as the one free agent signing, the A's have to part with Street, Crosby, and a promising young starter such as Mazzaro, in order to land Glaus and Garko. Your 2009 A's lineup, with Barton in AAA, Buck and Cunningham in the mix for OF playing time:
Furcal - SS
Cust - LF
Glaus - 3B/DH
Chavez - 3B/DH
Garko - 1B
Sweeney - RF
Suzuki - C
Gonzalez - CF
Ellis or Pennington - 2B
The starting pitching is still set with Duchscherer, Gallagher, Smith, Eveland, Braden, Gio Gonzalez and Outman fighting for five spots, plus Simmons, Cahill, and Anderson on the way. The bullpen is still strong with Devine, Ziegler, and Blevins at the front end, along with other options from those who don't make the rotation.
You're telling me that team couldn't compete in 2009 and still be strong going forward? The A's aren't that far away, folks - you're allowed to get excited.
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Crosby's gone?
Color me elated.
But seriously, I can allow myself to get excited at the picture you’ve painted, and not feel weird about it.
I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on Sep 28, 2008 5:54 PM PDT 0 recs
I'm sure I don't have the exact "tit for tat-ness" down on the trades
(I basically suck at that), but hopefully close enough for folks to get the idea – which is that those three could be acquired without the A’s trading guys they can’t afford to move. I figure they have Street and a younger “non Cahill-Anderson” pitcher to give and still be fine in the short and long term (and Crosby’s a salary dump, not a loss of talent, as far as I’m concerned).
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 6:04 PM PDT
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well, this is obviously the first "hot stove"
season thread.
by OaklandSi on Sep 28, 2008 6:02 PM PDT 0 recs
NO WAY
thats the starting lineup in april 09
chavy and cust are done and those siginings
are a long shot to say the least
Stay calm. I'm a relatively respectable citizen -- a multiple felon, perhaps, but certainly not dangerous
by LosAltosA's on Sep 28, 2008 6:12 PM PDT 0 recs
Oh, darn - I thought I had accurately predicted
the A’s 25 man roster 6 months before spring training. Oh well.
I agree that Cust is done – if the guy can only put up a .370 OBP, an .850 OPS, and hit 33 HRs, he should just retire.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 6:16 PM PDT
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I disagree
But only because he didn’t strickout 200 times. If he had, hasta la bye bye!
by thejd44 on
Sep 29, 2008 11:03 AM PDT
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Right-- haiku are supposed to express simple truths
(Emphasis on the “truths” part.)
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 28, 2008 8:40 PM PDT
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well, he's got the "simple" part down
It's just something we do. It's not something we like. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Sep 29, 2008 9:37 AM PDT
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I don't understand the Furcal love
He’s nothing special defensively and has been a just-ok hitter in the NL for his career (and he’s always played in parks that were either neutral or hitters parks*). I guess he’d be a fine stopgap, but he’s still a guy you look to improve upon. Just being better than Crosby doesn’t make him worth the money he’ll command.
The A’s can do better than a .352 OBP (Furcal’s career mark) at the leadoff position anyway. I’d much rather see the Buck who is putting up a .370 OBP in that spot.
- Sidenote: Does anybody have an explanation for why Dodger Stadium went from being a big-time pitchers park to being a hitters haven over the past three seasons? I actually wasn’t going to make a park factor point in my argument until I looked and saw that Chavez-Ravine has been very kind to hitters recently.
by thejd44 on Sep 28, 2008 6:12 PM PDT 0 recs
Re: His defense
I did a little more looking. Furcal has been very weird defensively as he seems to have improved as he’s aged in a pattern that is very atypical. I don’t think any improvements he’s made will last as he continues to get older, and he’ll go back to being just a slighty-above average shortstop.
by thejd44 on
Sep 28, 2008 6:15 PM PDT
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.271 EqA
That is Furcal’s career mark.
It’s about 20 runs above the average shortstop with the bat.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 28, 2008 6:23 PM PDT
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Perhaps people who underestimate Furcal offensively
don’t adequately account for his speed? It’s not that common for a player to hit 15 HRs and steal 25-40 bases, which is what Furcal has done.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 6:26 PM PDT
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It's possible
Just looking at OPS will give misleading analyses of players who are big basestealers (assuming they aren’t incompetent at it, which Furcal isn’t— his career success is about 78% and he’s improved over time).
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 28, 2008 6:35 PM PDT
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31 year olds don't typically continue to steal lots of bases at an improved rate
Especially in Oakland.
by thejd44 on
Sep 28, 2008 6:44 PM PDT
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I think the climate in Oakland is changing
in regards to base stealing. I feel confident that if the A’s have an accomplished base-stealer they will turn him loose FAR more than they have in the past.
We’ve already seen this some and this year the A’s didn’t really have a true base stealer in the everyday lineup, other than a short stretch of Rajai – who was turned loose – and a short stretch of Patterson, who never got on base.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 6:47 PM PDT
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I think the A's are still unlikely to have many "true base stealers"
but almost all of the outfielders currently on the roster are going to steal 10-20 a year over a full season.
Career highs in steals in the minors:
Sweeney 8
C-Gon 15
Cunningham 22
Buck 11
Denorfia 20
Murton 20
Rajai 57
Other than Jack Cust, all of these guys are competent baserunners.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 28, 2008 7:26 PM PDT
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It's not that I think Furcal is a bad player, it's that I see a 31 yo SS
coming off major back surgery as a big risk — as in a Kotsay sized risk. If you’re talking about a 1 year deal then it’s OK I guess, but not worth getting excited about. If you’re talking about longer than that, then we’ve learned nothing from the Injured Players are Undervalued era.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 28, 2008 8:45 PM PDT
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+1
"Lefty relievers are like the different Mountain Dew flavors. New ones keep appearing, and people are willing to buy, but in the end most of them suck." - Gallagher's Watermelons
by scatterbrian on
Sep 29, 2008 9:46 AM PDT
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If I'm not mistaken
the A’s led the AL in stolen base percentage this year. They did in fact run alot more this year and I think it’s safe to say that the trend will only increase in the future.
by mrod on
Sep 29, 2008 12:02 AM PDT
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I see it a different way
They led in percentage because they don’t run all over the place. They have a lot of good baserunners who can pick their spots, but none of those guys are going to swipe 50 bases.
by thejd44 on
Sep 29, 2008 11:04 AM PDT
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Agreed
However, I still see the A’s leaning towards runnung a little more next year and beyond etc….as long as they have the type of players to get it done. Let’s be honest here, until the team acquires more power, they will need to bleed out runs any way they can.
by mrod on
Sep 29, 2008 4:45 PM PDT
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Unless I'm understanding something wrong
He’s around 25 runs above replacement with the bat. Is the average shortstop really only 5 runs above replacement?
by thejd44 on
Sep 28, 2008 6:43 PM PDT
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The positional adjustment for SS is 11 runs according to MGL and Tango
A .271 EqA over a full season is around 9 RAA (James Loney was 8 RAA this season with exactly a .271 EqA). Hence, 20 runs.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 28, 2008 6:48 PM PDT
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So 1 point of EQA = roughly 1 run?
Because .260 is supposed to be league average. For Loney to be 11 points above average and 8 RAA seems a little strange. I guess I don’t see the use of EQA if it’s that close to 1. What also doesn’t jive then is that the SS EQA in 2008 is .255, which is only 5 points below overall average.
I’m not arguing it at this point, I just don’t really understand how this conversion is working at all.
by thejd44 on
Sep 28, 2008 6:54 PM PDT
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There's a bit of a paradox here because shortstops hit better than second basemen,
yet are also more valuable in the field.
The positional adjustment deals with that problem better than just comparing a player to league-average at his position, because if you just look at players at the same position you end up overcrediting second basemen and undercrediting shortstops.
Without going heavily into the math (which I’m a bit shaky on myself), EqA and RAA are both calculated from the same base stat, Equivalent Runs, which is generated from linear weights. EqA is EqR divided by outs times something (I think it’s a constant). RAA has a similar but, I imagine, more complex calculation.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 28, 2008 7:17 PM PDT
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I see SS at .255 EqA and 2B at .264
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 28, 2008 9:10 PM PDT
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Wasn't looking at this year's numbers, but rather speaking generally
2B were at .264 this year? Really?
Huh. What positions were under .260?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 28, 2008 9:11 PM PDT
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SS .255, C .252, P .102
I think the SS thing changed when A-Rod moved and Nomar stopped playing
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 28, 2008 9:15 PM PDT
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And around the same time, Jeter's OPS dropped from
5.000 to 4.998.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 9:16 PM PDT
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From looking at it I don't see how .260 is avg any more
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 28, 2008 9:17 PM PDT
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You're going to have to ask BP about that; I can't figure it out...
Maybe their league adjustments are off-center this year because offense is down across the board.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 28, 2008 9:18 PM PDT
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Maybe these are "adjusted for all time"?
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 28, 2008 9:19 PM PDT
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That would explain why the expected average number
of complete games is 53.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 9:20 PM PDT
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The same as life expectancy
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 28, 2008 9:21 PM PDT
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Nope. Doesn't look like it.
Mauer is .316 “adjusted for this year” and .317 on the EqA page. I’ll e-mail them.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 28, 2008 9:21 PM PDT
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You think Mauer will answer?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 9:22 PM PDT
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If I ask nicely, why not?
It’s the same principle I use in asking for jobs and dates. Of course I’m middle-aged, unemployed and single.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 28, 2008 9:26 PM PDT
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You need to DEMAND dates
Of course I’m single and subject to several restraining orders.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 9:28 PM PDT
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Goats have attorneys?
And rights?
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 28, 2008 9:29 PM PDT
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Teeth. Very sharp teeth.
Who do you think eats the restraining orders?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 9:32 PM PDT
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Why I love AN:
I ask a serious question about what goes into EQA and RAA and (while it was answered) the thread morphs into more Nico/goat discussion. Yay!
by thejd44 on
Sep 29, 2008 11:06 AM PDT
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Middle aged, unemployed AND
single? So in other words, you’re happy?
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on
Sep 29, 2008 8:41 AM PDT
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Sure, I've nothing to complain about.
Except the A’s offense of course.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 29, 2008 2:02 PM PDT
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The average SS is about 16 RAR with about 700 PA if you look at Hanley.
Hanley 689 PA, 70.1 RAR, 54.0 RAP.
The Boston Combo of Julio Lugo and Jed Lowrie are 17.3 RAR and -0.3 RAP. But Jed played a lot of 3B too.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 28, 2008 8:56 PM PDT
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Dodger stadium
They eliminated a lot of foul territory.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on
Sep 29, 2008 9:28 AM PDT
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I wonder how much
I also wish somebody would do a study on how many extra outs occur in Oakland because of the foul territory. I bet there’s a way to roughly estimate the average foul territory size of the 29 other parks, then see how many balls were hit farther towards the seats and still caught.
by thejd44 on
Sep 29, 2008 11:08 AM PDT
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Don't quote me on this...
But I feel like David Gassko has done a study on Square Footage of Major League ballparks.
It may not be David’s work. But I know I’ve read something along those lines. Anybody familiar with this, or have a link?
"Some of the men didn't wait for the women and children to jump off the sinking ship that is our season." - 67MARQUEZ
by notsellingjeans on
Sep 29, 2008 5:39 PM PDT
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Giambi and Dunn
I like the Furcal and Glaus suggestions. Has anyone figured out approximately how many more wins Giambi and Dunn would have been worth this year over Barton and one of the A’s outfield positions? Giambi, Dunn and Cust would give the A’s three 30+ home run hitters. While it’s hard to know cost, there is a benefit, of course, to not having to give up young pitching to grab another hitter on the market.
by SA on Sep 28, 2008 6:14 PM PDT 0 recs
I'm not so sure a year older Giambi
will get that many HRs without that friendly old short porch. He’s also not everyday 1B material.
by OaklandSi on
Sep 28, 2008 6:16 PM PDT
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Money guys!!!
it’s all about the $$‘s with Beane and the guys you listed are above his payroll amount. Firstly, he’s been burned with the Free Agent market aka Estaban Loiaza…I believe we’re still paying that salary too.
As much as I’d like to see Glaus at 3B, it’s not going to happen. He’s not versitile enough, so if he doesn’t play 3B, you can’t put him at DH because Cust is there, where are you going to put him? The OF!?? OMG!!! And Chavez? ya, he’s outta here!!!! Tell Dave Stewart to take the $35 million dollar contract he negotiated for Chavey and smoke it because that’s about what Chavez is worth…old smoke!
Crosby is gone like a bad piece of crystal…see ya, don’t let the door hit ya where the good Lord split ya! So there’s Pennington spot, I like him a lot…he got a cannon for an arm and he’s fast, more importantly he’s level headed and dedicated to the game. Furcal??? Are you serious? i’d rather have Tattoo from Fantasy Island play SS than Furcal!!!
Ellis…something tells me he’s joining Crosby…to be used as trade bait to beef up the minor league system.
Pitchers are locked….This year hopefully someone wont mess with Braden and tell him he’s going in the pen and the start of the season and just let the boy do his thing…this kid can pitch and he definitely is the leader now in the rotation…can’t wait for that. But Mazzaro??? This guy is at least a full season if not more away from the bigs…this cat needs to learn to pitch at the higher levels…just not ready! You forget Andrew Bailey who is a up and comer but still, just a season away.
Then you have the pen…they look solid….hopefully the other teams won’t figure out the Zigler really only has 1 pitch…the sinker….maybe they did and that accounted for his late season slump, we’ll have to see. But they look solid, Zigler, Devine, Blevins, and Gray. Rumor mill is that they’re working with Gray to “tweak” his motion a bit, to get more movement on his pitches, that should make him a solid set up guy for Zigler. Hate to say it but Houston, we have a problem…he’s being shipped out along with Embree (took his salary in the shorts as well).
I caught the interview with Beane on Fox Sports…he’s really against going into the free agent market…we’ll have to wait and see!
by jerrymcguire on Sep 28, 2008 6:21 PM PDT 0 recs
Oh my.
Bold prediction: Ellis won’t be traded.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 6:23 PM PDT
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Yup.
And if the A’s re-sign Ellis, they can’t turn around and trade him.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 6:27 PM PDT
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But they could do so if he accepts arb.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on
Sep 28, 2008 8:59 PM PDT
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I don't think he cares for roast beef
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 9:04 PM PDT
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Even though I'm not a big Furcal fan
I absolutely would rather have him playing short than anybody from Fantasy Island.
by thejd44 on
Sep 28, 2008 6:45 PM PDT
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but... but...
I coulda swore Ricardo Montalban hit .267 for Peoria in the 3-I League back in 1962…
"All managers are losers, they are the most expendable pieces of furniture on the face of the Earth."- Ted Williams
by Gaijin_Suketto on
Sep 28, 2008 10:02 PM PDT
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we are not still paying for Loiaza
The dodgers are on the bill for that because they took him on waivers last year.
Ellis is a free agent and thus can not be traded.
And its Z-i-e-g-l-e-r.
I could see Huston being traded to several teams and I think that Glaus could be a good target.
Who are Houston and Zigler?
"First Zito and now DJ? The Giants are like A's landfil." - a paraphrase of Since72.
Also, Todd Linden has a .231 lifetime average and a 66 career OPS+, chill Linden fans.
by Athletics fan and runner on
Sep 28, 2008 6:39 PM PDT
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they are on the A's in the Bizarro world
as have been such stars as Millhouse and Hardin
by OaklandSi on
Sep 28, 2008 6:47 PM PDT
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All of whom play on Fantasy Island,
where Furcal is king and Cust never stricks out!1111
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 6:48 PM PDT
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Is that the world in which we swept the reds in 90?
Gosh, I am so bitter today. I love A’s baseball and I have to go through a whole winter without it.
We're screwed. Do what makes you human. For me it is running, being a dad and husband, and rooting for the A's.
by Athletics fan and runner on
Sep 28, 2008 6:50 PM PDT
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huston traded to several teams
how would that work, do they each get him for one day of the week?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on
Sep 29, 2008 12:45 AM PDT
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body parts
The tigers get his right leg, the mets get his torso, Cleveland gets his left leg, and so on. As long as his right arm ends up in the NL I think that we will be ok. I would be willing to send his head to any number of posters here on AN so they can admire his face.
We're screwed. Do what makes you human. For me it is running, being a dad and husband, and rooting for the A's.
by Athletics fan and runner on
Sep 29, 2008 6:00 AM PDT
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I'll come back to this post later
I just wanted to point out that according to the data Cesar Izturis outperformed Crosby as a big league SS. Izturis’ EQA was 1 point lower than Crosby’s but his defense, according to Runs Saved and RZR give Izturis the edge. In fact, RZR has Izturis much higher then Crosby.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Sep 28, 2008 7:25 PM PDT 0 recs
Crosby's potential, though, if a team believes that
a fresh start might elevate his performance (which I actually think is a real possibility) is still higher – meaning that he should reliably be “the same or better” than Izturis.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on
Sep 28, 2008 8:14 PM PDT
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one-year swings in defensive stats
Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the general consensus that, in order to get an accurate picture of a defender from advanced stats, you really need to look at a multiple-year sample of whichever set of data is being analyzed? And isn’t, therefore, a one-year glance at a particular advanced defensive stat not necessarily going to be true?
I mean, I’m not opposed to the notion that Crosby’s range might be shrinking. And I’m as eager to be rid of him as anyone. I’m just not convinced that he’s definitively dropped off as much defensively as some claim.
It's just something we do. It's not something we like. @('.')@
by monkeyball on
Sep 29, 2008 9:41 AM PDT
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It takes about three times as long for defensive stats to converge as offensive ones
so raw RZR, etc is the equivalent, over a full season, of two months’ hitting stats.
I don’t know if BBTF’s OPD is regressed to the mean or not. It seems possible given the relative “sanity” of the fielding run totals, but I just don’t know any of the methodology that’s involved in the stat.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 29, 2008 11:08 AM PDT
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I'm not sure I buy that
I understand why it’s said (fewer chances), but I think there is a lot less noise/luck involved in fielding a ball that can skew the results.

