If healthy Duchscherer will be given every chance to start. But I’m not convinced that his body can handle it.

Gallagher and Eveland will likely be part of the rotation all year. Braden may begin the season in the rotation, but he may not be there all season…and Smith is 50-50, I think.

One of this year’s starters may be traded, as might one or more pitching prospects, during the off season. The A’s really need to trade for some more offense (most likley infielders), and I think they will use their pitching depth to get it.

1 — And as my darkhorse, I pick the Athletics.
2 — growing pains in ‘07, playing young guys.
3 — finished strong at x-y in September as youngsters started to hit stride.
4 — team loaded with smart young pitching, OF talent (optional ERA stat, LongGon highlight clip).
5 — acquired two big bats in winter to fill infield holes (Dunn? Giambi? stay tuned)
6 — Billy Beane gutsy genius. Rebuilt in one year. Blah blah.
7 — A’s are this year’s Rays. May be a year away, but hungry. Don’t bet agi’n Billy.

Duke, Gallagher, Eveland and Smith are proven. Braden is close. Problem is, those guys are probably not good enough to make us serious contenders. We need Gio, Outman, or one of the AA guys to step up into a top of the rotation role, if we are going to have a solid pitching staff again.

Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if we sign an older #3 pitcher to eat some innings for us next year. From the looks of it, the 2010 pitching staff is a lot better, and deeper, than the 2009 version.

Let’s just call the 2009 Rotation “Team Nibble”… The A’s Rotation from 2000 – 2006 had pitchers who were around the plate on a consistent basis (except Zito). The thing that concerns me the most w/ the guys projected to be in the Starting Rotation in 2009 is the tendancy to Nibble and Walk guys.

Here are the BB/9 Ratios:

Duke – 2.28 BB/9 (MLB Rate)
Outman – 4.30 BB/9IP (MiLB Rate)
Eveland – 4.85 BB/9 (MLB)
Smith – 4.05 BB/9 (MLB)
Gallagher – 4.57 BB/9 (MLB)
Braden – 3.64 BB/9 (MLB)
GIO – 3.93 BB/9 (MilB)

Those numbers really concern me going forward. I think Gallagher, Braden, and Eveland’s numbers will improve slightly, but Outman, Gio, and Greg “Nibbles” Smith will probably remain the same for the foreseable future.

So if I’m Billy Beane, I’m trying to package Greg Smith w/ Santiago Casilla and Josh Outman for a Bat.

Which is to say, count on them not being able to contribute, build the team without them in mind, and anything they do deliver on the field is a bonus.

It’s not a stretch to think that an outfield drawing from (TBuck, CarGon, RyRy, Cunningham, MaMur) could hit for a league average OPS.

An infield drawing from (Ellis, Barton, Chavez, Crosby, Petit, Patterson, Hannahan, Suzuki, Pennington) is far more problematic. We need left-side infielders really badly, and all the “big bats” that people talk about are 1B/DH types.

… he’s pitched well for such a young player. Too many walks, sure, but you’d think that figures to get better as he starts to really believe that he’s a major leaguer.

I’m not ready to pencil in Outman for 2009 after 2 starts. But at the very least, it seems as though he should be working as a power arm out of the ’pen.

1) Duke
2) Gallagher
3) Braden
4) Eveland
5) Smith

Not an overwhelmingly sexy rotation, but Gio and the rest of the younger guys could probably use a little more seasoning.

i agree that Gio and some of the younger guys need some more time down in AAA before they make the starting rotation. I like Gio but he isn’t ready yet and I still want to see more from Outman. He seems very talented but we need to see more from him.
I agree with Duke, Gallagher,Braden, Eveland, and SMITH. I think they will be a better rotation then people expect though. I for one don’t doubt Smith. :)

I think there is a good chance, if no pitching moves are made, that we will have an opening day rotation of;

Justin Duchscherer
Sean Gallagher
Greg Smith
Dana Eveland
Josh Outman

But we could have an all new rotation come mid season if prospects are ready and not dealt.

Gio Gonzalez
Trevor Cahill
Brett Anderson
Vin Mazzaro
James Simmons

But the way I see it, there is a very good chance to me that the A’s deal Mazzaro in a package for a bat this off season. He seems like a prime sell high candidate. I could also see them dealing Henry Rodriguez, who is on the 40 man roster already and thus will soon be out of options before long.

The only players I see the team not dealing are the 2008 Draft Class, Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill and Chris Carter. Everyone else in the minors is fair game for the acquisition of another bat or two.

This is partly a response to Colorado Fan’s comment above, but I’ve set it apart because it’s long. I tend to believe that K/BB ratio is the best quick-and-dirty leading indicator of success. If you don’t have either good stuff (high strikeouts) or good control (low walks) it’s hard to be successful long-term.

Here are the major and minor league K/BB numbers for some past and present A’s starters, along with those of our current crop of youngsters:

                                 minors majors
                                  K/BB K/BB

Haren       5.37 3.48
Dukescherer 3.68 3.02
Harden      2.80 2.37
Blanton     4.97 2.06

Gaudin      3.17 1.58
Saarloos    3.18 1.35
Dinardo     2.81 1.24

Braden      4.24 1.87
Eveland     3.25 1.40
Smith       2.94 1.46
Meyer       2.68 1.35
Gonzalez    2.60 1.25
Gallagher   2.56 1.59
Outman      2.03 2.00

Numbers always depend somewhat on context, of course. In this case, minor league numbers will depend partly on how aggressively a pitcher is promoted, and major league numbers will depend on usage (starter vs. reliever) and on how long they’ve been in the league (their ratios will probably improve after their rookie year). Even with that caveat in mind, and also keeping in mind that this is just a few pieces of data, not a real study, a couple things jump out:

1. Good major league starters will usually strike out at least twice as many hitters as they walk, and not-so-good ones usually won’t.
2. K/BB ratio declines from the majors to the minors, pretty much always.
3. The amount it declines can vary a whole lot from pitcher to pitcher, but that isn’t random either. Of the established pitchers I listed, the pitchers with the smallest relative declines (Harden, Haren, and Duchscherer) clearly have better “stuff” than the ones with the larger declines, even to an amateur eye.
4. Of the current group of young pitchers, only Braden and maybe Eveland had good numbers in the minors, and only Gallagher has the kind of stuff that would lead us to expect a moderate, as opposed to severe, decline as he moves from minors to majors. All in all, there’s no one in this group that I’d expect to turn into a real ace, even several years down the road.

With all that in mind, at this point I’d expect to start the season with the same group we saw (when healthy) in the second half this year: Duchscherer, Braden, Gallagher, Eveland, Smith in that order, with Gonzalez and Outman starting in the Sacramento rotation and ready to step in. Longer term, Anderson (5.06 K/BB), Simmons (3.58) and Cahill (2.72) give more reason for hope.

there is def a chance this rotation could improve. There are alot of young guys pitching which is exciting. Obviously I am very high on Greg Smith but I think Gallagher was a good guy to get back in the deal for Rich. I agree that Gallagher has the stuff to skyrocket. I hope so. I really like this kid