Offensive Offense: changes for next year.
I was reading Wollf's comments the other day when he said that we were going to add a big bat in the offseason to our lineup and it got me thinking. So, I started digging to see where our offense could use some improvements or if we even need to add a big bat. We might be able to address this issue internally.
There is no denying that the A's were terrible offensively this season. Crosby (.242), Ellis (.233), Cust (.229), Hannahan (.218), and Barton (.216) were all in the bottom seven in BA for the AL this year. Collectively, largely because of the infield, Oakland placed last in just about every offensive category.
So what does all this mean? We need to make some improvements. As it appears for next year, Barton will be starting at first base. Ellis will most likely be replaced either by Pennington, or Patterson. Crosby will most likely be the starting at short and Hannahan will hopefully be replaced by anyonet, but probably Pennington.
Do we want more offense or worse defense? Barton has had issues at first, Penington/Patterson will be worse than a gold glove caliber Ellis. Crosby remains the same, and I'm not sure how Pennington's glove or _____ will be compared to Hannahan at third who has had a good year defensively.
Do we want worse defense to make up for the anemic offense? Does worse defense hurt our pitchers, or does more offense give them confidence? I realize that we have many young pitchers who would like good defense, but if we can't score any runs then we are sure to lose anyways. Greg Smith had 14 games with 2 runs or less of offensive support this year. How much pressure does that put on a young pitcher?
I think that we should start Barton in AAA next year so that he can gain confidence, and bring him up in the year when he shows he can hit Major League pitching on a consistent basis. With the offensive logjam, maybe we could have Sweeney/Cunningham/Chavez play first until Barton returns? I don't know if they have played first before, but we could try them out for a while.
As much as I like Ellis, I don't think he's in the plans for the future. We should start Patterson and see what he can do there until Cardenas is ready to take over. Patterson will be a butcher compared to Ellis, but I think that his projected offense, with regular at bats would have to be better than Ellis this year. Besides, there is no way of knowing what will happen to Ellis' career after his shoulder injury.
I know that some people are against this, but I would like the A's to sign Furcal. I'm tired of seeing Crosby on the field and hearing his poor/entitled attitude. I know that Furcal had back injuries this season, but he won't even cost a draft pick due to the amount of time that he lost this year. Crosby (.972) and Furcal's (.967) defensive fielding percentage are very similar, and we would get another burner on the base paths, seeing as we have been running a lot more lately.
At third, I would love to see the A's trade for Ian Stewart. I don't think that getting Encarnacion or Kouzmanoff would be good enough. If we're going to be serious about making a run for contention, then we will need top talent. Duke/Street for Stewart/prospects should be more than enough to make that happen. They want a front line starter and aren't looking to retain Fuentes. With Devine getting a save today, it appears that he is being groomed as the future closer. If any trade doesn't happen, then start Pennington. It has become painful to watch Hannahan at the plate.
With all of these position changes, there is no way that we would have the same sad offense we had this year. Look, despite all that we have gone through this year, we still have the third best ERA in the AL, 4.18. If we can start averaging more than 3.99 R/G, even make it to middle of the pack, we could definitely make a run for the playoffs next year.
Furcal SS
Patterson 2B
Sweeney LF
Suzuki C
Cust DH
Chavez/Pennington/Sweeney 1B
Gonzalez CF
Buck RF
Stewart/Pennington 3B
This was my first post. What do you think? Feedback?
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49 comments
Comments
Feedback
Your analysis is promising, but you’re sort of guessing at a lot of things that you don’t have to guess at and so your position is not as strong as it could/should be.
It’s quite correct that the infield is the cause of the A’s offensive woes, but you should use a stat other than batting average, be it OPS+, BRAA, or EqA. As it happens, Barton, Hannahan, Ellis and Crosby are largely horrible in those stats as well.
You say Patterson likely projects better than Ellis for next year. We won’t get new projections for next year for some time, but you can use a combination of this year’s projections (many can be found here) and in-season Marcels (found here, partly courtesy of AN’s own salb918) to take a guess.
For fielding, you really need to use something other than fielding percentage, which is just a bad/misleading stat. Zone Rating (found here) and RZR (found here) are a good start if you’re making a stats-based argument.
All of those links will take you to Mark Ellis’s stats, but if you kick around the same sites you can find similar stats for whichever player you want to look up.
I’ll dig into the substantive arguments you made some more when I have more time.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 21, 2008 11:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ian Stewart
I understand why Stewart’s name keeps popping up in these discussion but you are totally incorrect in your assesment of what it would take to acquire him via a trade. The Rockies want to trade a vet so they can play Stewart full time next year, that means any trade offer is going to have to blow the Rockies out of the water before they’ll part with him.
Duke is a good pitcher, but he’s a year away from FA and he couldn’t finish the season because of his hip. Sure, the Rockies could use another SP but they have Francis, Cook and Jimenez ready to go next year so it’s not like the rotation is a gaping hole. Yes, Fuentes is probably hitting the road but at the start of the year the Rockies decided to make Corpas their closer, there’s no reason to assume they wouldn’t be willing to do it again in 2009. Plus, Street has battled injury and the fact that he’s lost the closer’s job. Street’s trade value isn’t exactly soaring.
Duke and Street are unlikely to be the centerpieces in a deal to acquire Stewart.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Sep 21, 2008 11:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Six cost-controlled years of Ian Stewart is far more valuable on the trade market than 1 year of Duke and 2 years of Street.
"Some of the men didn't wait for the women and children to jump off the sinking ship that is our season." - 67MARQUEZ
by notsellingjeans on Sep 22, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't want to be a jerk
But I stopped reading the fanpost when, in the second paragraph, batting averages were used to prove the offense was bad.
by thejd44 on Sep 22, 2008 9:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I still need to do my "Jack Cust Apology" fanpost
In a likely futile effort to finally convince people that he’s a pretty good player.
by thejd44 on Sep 22, 2008 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even more confusing is that a lot of the same people think Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn are good
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 22, 2008 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea about Ryan Howard.......
Who wants his 45+ homers and 130+rbi’s a season, thats not something the A’s need.
by pbra17 on Sep 22, 2008 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's not saying Ryan Howard is bad,
he’s saying that the people who think Jack Cust is bad don’t think the same thing about Ryan Howard.
They’re basically the same player except that Howard is marginally better and plays in a much friendlier ballpark to hit in.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 22, 2008 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes. To me they're all very good hitters, and not that different from each other.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 23, 2008 5:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
People do think Dunn sucks
As for Howard, it’s amazing how much of what passes for baseball analysis is just garden-variety racial stereotyping. Howard can’t possibly be a TTO guy, he’s black!
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 22, 2008 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure I've ever heard anybody say anything of that sort.
by mikev on Sep 22, 2008 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course they don't SAY it
Openly expressing racial stereotypes will get you fired, unless you’re Joe Morgan, who cannot be fired for any reason.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 23, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless they're about white people ... then it's pretty much fair game ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Sep 23, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He also has an extra 30-40 points of batting average for his career ...
a portion of that is probably ballpark related but it’s a pretty clear reason why he’s thought of differently than the other two …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Sep 23, 2008 12:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"and hearing his poor/entitled attitude"
The hell?
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
by salb918 on Sep 22, 2008 12:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
From what I've heard from Crosby ... it kind of sounds like he's suffering from depression ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Sep 22, 2008 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know my depression is triggered by Bobby Crosby being in Oakland green
Is it possible that Crosby’s depression is tied to him being in Oakland green?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Sep 22, 2008 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think there's a good chace a change would do him well ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Sep 22, 2008 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't care what a trade does for Crosby
I’m going to be selfish here and concentrate on the bliss I will experience once he’s gone.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Sep 22, 2008 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well you asked ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Sep 22, 2008 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I asked if Crosby was sharing the same cause as my depression...
him being in Oakland. I don’t care if he gets happy when he leaves, just that he leaves.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Sep 22, 2008 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So ray of sunshine grover is no more?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Sep 22, 2008 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've never been a ray of shine where that rat fuck bastard has been involved
How long have I been waiting for the day that Crosby darkens Oakland’s doorstep no more?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Sep 22, 2008 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow ... you stepped it up a notch ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Sep 22, 2008 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Spent most of my morning at the DMV
What makes it even better is I have to go back.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Sep 22, 2008 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You should do what I'm about to do ...
have a beer … or three …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Sep 22, 2008 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No drinking tonight
The wife’s away on a work trip and I’m minding the kid. It would be perfectly reasonable to have a beer (emphasis on the singular) except I’m completely paranoid about drinking and single parenting.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Sep 22, 2008 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the problem is that too often drinking leads to single parenting ...
I think you’re safe on that front …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Sep 22, 2008 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
qotm
well played sir. Granted, he set it on a platter, but it was still a nice finish.
"Some of the men didn't wait for the women and children to jump off the sinking ship that is our season." - 67MARQUEZ
by notsellingjeans on Sep 23, 2008 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How is Barton supposed to show that he can hit Major League pitching while in AAA?
You think Pennington is a viable option at 1b?
Batting average is a very, very limited way to measure offense. Jack Cust, for instance, was the team’s best offensive player this year, despite that poor batting average.
Batting average, at least, has some limited value, fielding percentage, on the other hand, is basically worthless.
Ian Stewart is overrated — he only looked decent this year because he plays half his games in Colorado and enjoyed an absurdly high BABIP.
Furcal could be a decent pickup — but alone he won’t do much.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Sep 22, 2008 1:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Grover's plan of trading the farm for Zimmerman isn't sounding that far-fetched now.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 22, 2008 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about my plan for converting Barton to third base???
by mikev on Sep 22, 2008 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
isn't baisley the plan at third base next year?
from what i gather, he can field, and he’s got a decent bat with some pop
by guy incognito on Sep 23, 2008 2:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How Barton can show he's "MLB-ready" in AAA:
I understand your point Devo, but I’d argue that Barton will have at least proved he’s more ready than he is now if he goes back to AAA and puts up a .900 OPS-or-better season.
In ’07, he was an .800 OPS guy in AAA. In ’08, he was inadequate at the big league level, and OPSed sub-.650.
So…if he spends ‘09 in AAA and OPS’s .900-..950, then I’m going to argue that we’ll be able to say, entering the ’10 season, that “Yeah, ’10 Barton will be better than ’08 Barton was”.
"Some of the men didn't wait for the women and children to jump off the sinking ship that is our season." - 67MARQUEZ
by notsellingjeans on Sep 23, 2008 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that wasn't supposed to be in bold
but it’s amazing how much impact it can have to add emphasis to the least important part of the sentence, especially when the sentence itself is already unimportant.
What an idiot.
"Some of the men didn't wait for the women and children to jump off the sinking ship that is our season." - 67MARQUEZ
by notsellingjeans on Sep 23, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not too worried about him ...
He’s 23 years old, has been basically league average (park adjusted) over the first 500 ABs of his career, despite a well below normal BABIP. Add 40 points to his career Slg and OBP and we’d just be writing his Ks off as inexperience and trying to justify a not quite deserved ROY Award.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Sep 23, 2008 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm aware that a few hitters can consistently out-perform a typical BABIP...
Is the reverse also true? Are there some hitters who, year in and year out, consistently under-perform the league-average BABIP?
Anecdotally,^ I don’t feel like I’ve seen Barton get robbed much. The picture of a Barton contact-out that I have in my mind is the lazy fly ball, with not nearly enough power to be a gapper or go over the wall.
^(which is my phrase for, “This utterly worthless observation I’ve made should be taken with a truckload of salt, and is begging to be refuted with actual data and insight from someone in the know.”)
"Some of the men didn't wait for the women and children to jump off the sinking ship that is our season." - 67MARQUEZ
by notsellingjeans on Sep 24, 2008 12:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely, it is true ...
but Barton had an average to good line drive rate, which is the most important indicator of where a player will fall on the babip spectrum.
It’s possible that Barton is abnormal, but unless or until he shows it over the course of several full seasons, we have to regress more or less all the way to the mean for our expectations/projections …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Sep 24, 2008 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But how do we regress his diving/swimming skills?
"Some of the men didn't wait for the women and children to jump off the sinking ship that is our season." - 67MARQUEZ
by notsellingjeans on Sep 24, 2008 1:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't that be diving/headstand skills?
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 24, 2008 2:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My observation with Barton is that many of last year's
stinging line drives became this year’s soft line drives – looping liners to the OF, soft drives on the infield, etc. Your BABIP on line drives is going to be lower this way, which in turn predicts a much lower BABIP in general.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Sep 24, 2008 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Murton
I don’t understand why everyone seems to have written this guy off in Oakland? His career numbers (even after his awful season last year) would have put him at the top of most A;s offensive categories . As a cubs fan I can attest that the guy is a natural hitter. Whenever he sees regular at bats. He puts up solid avg/obp/slug. I definately think he needs to start over at least Buck. Just because he is a superior hitter/power guy. Unfortunately this year didn’t show it. I have a feeling there was something going on. i.e. hidden injury/confidence issues.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
by aaronb on Sep 23, 2008 7:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There weren't "hidden injury/confidence issues" with Buck, too?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 23, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the A's would be willing to trade him back to the Cubs if they wanted him
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 24, 2008 2:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When the guy got regular at bats, he was an above average Major league hitter. He fell in Lou’s doghouse and got sporadic PT. It casued him to tank. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. The guy can rake.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
by aaronb on Sep 24, 2008 9:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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