Mychael Urban's Take On Giambi Return
by jasonlbe on Sep 15, 2008 3:57 PM PDT
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PrintWhat are the chances of Jason Giambi coming back to Oakland as a free agent?
--James R., Richmond, Calif.
About the same as Rickey Henderson batting leadoff for the A's next year. About the same as Vince Cotroneo reporting to Spring Training next season with an Afro. About the same as Billy Beane ever saying, "You know what? That was a bad trade I made." No chance.
Not sure if you all have seen this yet. Figured it was realtively interesting since it seems that a good percentage of us were kind of hoping for a return for Giambi, and a return to "power ball." Had to throw that reference in there, since this years motto of "100% baseball" is kind of lame. What like it's 85% baseball and 15% soccer. I even liked "they're young, buth they can play" better. Either way that is just a bit of a minor rant. I find this kinda too bad if true, since Beane alway seemed to like Giambi and he would seem to be once again a great fit on a young team maybe ready for another rise in the near future.
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Production
The guy is one of the more productive hitters in the league this year, with an OPS sitting at .885. Thats good for 15th in the AL, sandwiched between Jim Thome & Grady Sizemore. The A’s just don’t sign free agents that hit like that period
the problem is
that he hits a lot of those dingers into the short porch at Yankee Stadium. No short porch + no stud juice = a lot of warning track flies to right…
"All managers are losers, they are the most expendable pieces of furniture on the face of the Earth."- Ted Williams
-.5
you lost me at “no stud juice”.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
I agree
Because he’s almost certainly back on the HGH
by thejd44 on Sep 15, 2008 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions
the problem is
Giambi’s most useful to a 2009 contender, which the A’s are not.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
And that is why the Yanks are looking to resign him from what I hear.
Charlie Brown GO A'S WIN
by Charlie Brown on Sep 15, 2008 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions
True
But if the A’s signed him and another bat then they’re look more and more like contenders.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Sep 15, 2008 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
OK, let's say they sign Giambi and Dunn
They demote Barton to AAA and play Cust or Dunn in LF. They still have black holes at 2B, 3B, and SS. CF could go either way with Carlos or Davis. With Sweeney you have a pretty bad defensive OF left to right. Does that really look like a contender?
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 15, 2008 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Exactly, and every year is different
so you can’t say “Beane doesn’t do x” so readily. Right now the A’s could really use a couple stopgap impact players until some very young guys (like Carter and Cardenas) are ready. Giambi and Furcal seem like two players you might get relatively affordably on short-term deals.
Furcal – SS
Cunningham – LF
Cust – DH
Giambi – 1B
Suzuki – C
R. Sweeney – RF
Chavez or acquisition – 3B
Gonzalez – CF
Pennington – 2B
That team couldn’t compete with our starting pitching and bullpen?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
No. I mean sure, anything's possible under the canopy of the sun, but
I don’t see Furcal as anything more than a low upside lottery ticket and you still have black holes as 2B and 3B.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 15, 2008 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess we see Furcal differently
Also, while I’m skeptical as to whether Chavez can, or should, play 3B next year, I believe (and I know I’m in the minority) that he can come back to hit well (e.g., .250/.350, 20 HR, 35 2B) if he is pain-free. (My main concern about 3B is that playing 3B will reduce the chances of him staying pain-free.)
That lineup looks pretty decent to me behind a plus pitching staff – which the A’s should have.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Sure, Chavez is an outstanding player if he's pain-free. But he isn't pain-free.
Furcal has a career 96 OPS+. Yes that’s legions better than Crosby, but he’s not a franchise talent even at his best. Coming off a major injury, he’s hardly at his best.
The key isn’t signing a good player to replace Barton, who may be just fine himself. They key is Carlos raising his OPS+ from 70 to 110, and making trades to solve 2B, SS and 3B. I guess I’m OK with one of Patterson or Pennington but only if that’s by far the worst player in the lineup.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 15, 2008 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions
OPS+ is significantly underrating Furcal's offense
You really need to use a more rigorous stat for these purposes, especially when a guy has a long track record. His career EqA is .271. In a full season he has generally been around 10 runs above average, before adjusting for position.
I’d guess he’s at least a three-win upgrade from Crosby, maybe closer to four.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I'm not impressed
The AFLAK duck is probably a 1.5 win upgrade over Crosby.
The monster at the end of this blog.
It seems like the Aflac duck would have trouble
finding a glove that fits…
Does he just knock the ball down with his wing? Or swallow it, then spit it at first base?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Nah
the Aflac duck is a black hole at short stop, but you can’t throw a strike to him to save your life and you can’t touch him on the base paths. He just hovers in the air until you get away from the base of choice.
In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!
That's what they say at the film festivals
“Affleck? Duck!”
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I heard he can really wing the ball around....
but offensively, all he does at the plate is hit fowl balls.
"If you lived in the now, you'd be home by now."
In today's politically correct world,
goosing is no longer considered appropriate.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Looking at your lineup in OPS+ terms, I'd guess something like:
Furcal/Crosby/Petit — 90
Cunningham/Buck — 120
Cust — 130
Giambi — 120
Suzuki — 100
Sweeney — 100
Chavez/Baisley/Hannahan — 90
Gonzalez/Davis — 90
Pennington — 90
I made 90 the minimum, but we all know from 2008 that it can get a lot worse. That’s still a bad offense.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 15, 2008 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe so
but it’s worth noting that if he’s right, the average OPS+ of that lineup is 104.5…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
So the key is to get everyone to at least replacement level!
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 16, 2008 2:59 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm with you on this one Nico
However, just as important is……dare I say it?
“Health”. But, boy, that lineup works for me Haas!
The only thing I might argue with is 2nd base. I think there is still a small, very small chance, but a chance none the less that Beane might re-sign Ellis to a 1 year deal with incentives and an option year. I know, I know…..he is having surgery on his shoulder. But, everybody thought he might never play again the first time he got seriously hurt so who knows??
I will say that Pennington is intriguing because he cna switch hit, has a good arm, and seems to know what he’s doing out there with his glove. Oh, and he is pretty damned quick on the base paths! Go A’s!
A healthy Furcal would be nice
but shouldn’t we be more cautious buying low on injured players? Or do we have low expectations for 2009, where the potential reward would be worthwhile.
I see '09
As being a lot like ‘06. We could buy low on a couple of players and if everything breaks right we’re looking at playoffs again. The younger players mature enough, and the pitching staff keeps it together. We’ll see.
"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin
by Helloooo 1st on Sep 18, 2008 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Michael Urban
Is right about as often as George Bush, so you gotta take everything he says with a grain of salt, the guy is a tool.
Michael Urban didn't write the piece, though
Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog
Way to misspell the name of the guy you're trashing, pbra17
Very nice.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Muphry's Law strikes again!
Well, some sort of variation on it anyway.
And yes, I did mean to write “Muphry’s.”
by thejd44 on Sep 15, 2008 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions
would that be..
“whatever did go wrong, could go wrong”?
by rollierollieOxenfree on Sep 16, 2008 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Muphry’s Law is an adage that states that “if you write anything criticizing editing or proofreading, there will be a fault of some kind in what you have written”. – Wiki.
It’s different here, since pbra17 wasn’t criticizing Urban’s grammar or anything of that sort, but it applies to some extent because he made an obvious error while he was talking about somebody else being wrong.
by thejd44 on Sep 16, 2008 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
The Yankees have a $22M club option on Giambi for '09
That’s a lot of money, but has anybody come out and said they’re for sure not picking up that option? I think talk of Giambi is silly when he’s not actually guaranteed to be a free agent.
by thejd44 on Sep 15, 2008 11:02 PM PDT reply actions
I dont think the Yankees pick that up.
With Nady staying next year they dont have the room. Also they have a decent 1B prospect that could play a decent 1st. Also Posada will prob play 1st a decent amount next year. There just no room for him.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
Who is their 1B prospect?
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 16, 2008 3:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Juan Miranda
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
with a name like that, he's gotta be right-handed ...
… and defended by shifting all your infielders to the left.
cocky whacko @('.')@
I figure he only hits well when the pitcher warns him where the pitch is going
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Personally, I'd love to see both of those moves
While I’m wishcasting, I’m sending Barton to the Fall League (and/or encouraging him to play winter ball) to get work in at 3B; if it doesn’t work out, it doesn’t work out, and he returns to 1B. With the upgrades of Giambi and Magglio, presumed return to form of Barton, and presumed continued blossoming of merely two out of the group of Cunningham/Sweeney/Patrol Craft/Buck/Rajai/Not-Corey, I think the offense could sustain carrying Petit and Pennington at SS/2B — and maybe even Hannahan at 3B (though an upgrade there would be good).
cocky whacko @('.')@
Works for me. I could see something like this next year, assuming Davis is playing like he has recently
So, something like this:
C1 Suzuki
1B Giambi
2B Pennington/Petit
3B Barton
SS Pennington/Petit
LF Cust/Cunningham
CF Davis/Cargo
RF Magglio/Sweeney
DH Giambi/Cust
{drool}
Counterintuitively, with that lineup next year, the rotation would be the weak link on the team.
cocky whacko @('.')@
I'd call the defense the weak link with that lineup
by thejd44 on Sep 16, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
that's some excellent D up the middle
Yeah, we’d lose some (ok, a fair amount) on the corners IF/OF, but we’d also have redundancy and defensive swaps (and potential platoons) galore.
cocky whacko @('.')@
The A's are 1 for 1 in World Series years in which the Series is interrupted by an earthquake
They can’t lose!
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
First of all
Magglio no chance, sadly.
Cargo over Davis. Sweeney in right, Cunningham over Cust. Honestly I have a feeling that Crosby will be back at Short, and I feel that is a wise move.
I hope Barton can learn to play 3B but I don’t think so. I hope they sign Giambi, but after seeing what Urban said I’ve lost all hope. However, Beane did say that he will try to get into the free agent market but I don’t think that happens.
2010 can't come soon enough
I think there's a decent chance Detroit cuts their payroll and trades either Magglio
or Sheffield. Unfortunately it’ll probably be Sheffield.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 16, 2008 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Nico's lineup
Considerin those two players together could perhaps be had for around 20 mil. I don’t see it as all too bad of a gamble. Who knows perhaps last year’s mirage could become reality. And this time around we would have some extra cannons.
I'm not sold on trading for Mags
He is a good offensive player but his defense is for shit and I’d rather have an outfield that featured Cunningham, Cc-Gon, Sweeney/Buck, and then Davis with Cust being your 5th-6th emergency outfielder. There’s too much promise in the young guys to trade for someone like Ordonez unless you want to put him at DH. Cust will do fine if he has a Giambi and other said hitters in a healthy lineup. Otherwise, I don’t see where an Ordonez fits in.
not a single one of our outfielders projects to OPS at Maggs' level, even if he declines slightly
Also, Cust has already “done fine” with the dross surrounding him.
cocky whacko @('.')@
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