A new way to draft
I would like to propose that the A's do something "radically different" in their trading and drafting strategy. This is more applicable to how they draft, as you'll read below.
BB has mentioned that one of the characteristics they look for in their draft picks is good athleticism as evidenced by players who come from stock, ie, have a history of athleticism in the family. Indeed, the recent crop of draftees included one Barfield. Though this family same-name thing isn't an exact science.
However, there is an exact science to predicting one's athleticism - genetics! Thanks to a little company in BB's backyard up here in the bay area, one can now test for the genetic phenotype of muscle performance. All that's needed is a bit of the player's saliva, and whamoo - 3-4 week turnaround as to a better indication of whether the player has the genetics to be a star athlete or not! Ok, maybe the method can't precisely pick out a ManRam or Bonds from a lineup of Emil Browns, but it could narrow the percentages..
From the company's website:
" To date, more than 150 genes have been linked to different aspects of physical performance. One of the clearest associations is seen with a gene called ACTN3 that is normally turned on in a type of muscle fiber used for power-based sports. A single SNP can turn this gene off."
The company's name: 23andme.com (cofounded by the wife of a Google cofounder).
Yes, there's more than just 1 gene corellation with athleticism, and it would be interesting to test all 150, and that may be possible in the future. But for now, a simple $400 test on each participant in the draft class could yield us some serious returns...
To carry out this strategy would entail some degree of negotiation with the player's union, if applied to trades for players already in the system. Though for draftees, it could greatly enhance their draft slot. The proposition for the potential draftees would be to "spit in the cup, and you can likely sign for millions; don't spit, and you'll likely draft alot lower".
I believe adopting this 'draft filtration' method would benefit all parties involved:
1) For the players who never would have made it to the majors, it could save everyone alot of time (those that don't have the gene wouldn't have to waste 8 years in the minors to realize they're not cut from the "special cloth" that will get them up in the majors and stay there).
2) For the FO, it would save alot of $$ and time in not wasting it on fruitless endeavors, and allow them to concentrate on players with a higher likelihood of exhibiting athleticism on the field.
3) Though for the current MLB players, it will result in a higher level of competition in the long-term, it could also result in a smaller number of players entering the majors, suggesting that those already in the league would be more likely to have their careers extended rather than being pushed out by the annual army of promotions from the minor leagues.
Maybe I'm just fantasizing, or bored w/ the A's as they're plodding along... Just thought I'd try to change the future!
[disclosure: while this post isn't intended to be an ad, and I don't work the specific company mentioned, I do work in this field]
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20 comments
Comments
An old way to draft

I'm here to talk about the past.
by 67MARQUEZ on Sep 15, 2008 6:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It will be interesting to see how this pans out in the future,
but I feel like the A’s already greatly emphasize the genetic factor through family ties. I believe the nurture element of this advantage (having a father well aware of the path to the majors and connected in the baseball community) is more valuable than their genetic makeup, but odds are good that they’ll pass the baseline test of physical traits needed for the bigs.
The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.
by rebus on Sep 15, 2008 8:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Genetic scouting
I’m sure in future years all of the major sports will develop some kind of genetic screening for prospects, but in this instance I think it’s a waste of time. Measuring muscle performance is actually one of the simplest and most objective things in any scouting report, whether through sprint times, fastball speed, or power. I think the real value of genetic testing for a franchise will come in the intangibles: polymorphisms correlating with ‘grace under pressure’ (cortisol receptors, etc.), coachability, response/resistance to injuries, aging well, that sort of thing. Nurture is huge, especially with behavioral traits like response to criticism and learning, but adding some data to those very subjective parts of a scouting report will be a huge advantage for the first team that figures it out. It’s still a ways off, but once they have a ‘$1000 genome’, a lot of the barriers will start to fall.
by Doug on Sep 15, 2008 9:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The only problem I have with this
is that plenty of thoroughly mediocre athletes have had long baseball careers. Baseball generally requires a particular skill (extreme hand-eye coordination for hitters, near-perfect repeatable throwing mechanics for pitchers) as a gateway. If you don’t have that, no amount of general athleticism will avail you anything… and if you do, you may be able to skate on less than perfect tools.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 15, 2008 9:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
my bad
I tried to italicize “it could narrow the percentages”, but the formatting didn’t work out…
Anyhows, I agree that a singe gene test may not necessarily give one the entire genetic basis for ascertaining one’s ability to be an excellent baseball player, but it could help filter out those less likely to make it to the bigs. The particular test in mention is for “muscle power”, though the ability to test over 150 other genetic traits linked to other elements of athleticism is just over the horizon… Some of these tests may include hand-eye coordination, for ex.
by rollierollieOxenfree on Sep 16, 2008 12:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that same article
also notes: <see rfloh’s link>
"’But if we find a genetic profile has a useful predictive function, then I prefer to consider how this might be used to positively discriminate’.
Multi-talented athletes only have a short time in which to decide which sporting areas will suit them best, so knowing their genetic make-up could help them make informed decisions about which discipline to focus on."
So my point of using this test as a tool to "positively discriminate’ is reinforced by the article (which was written back in 2003, so I guess I’m the one reinforcing the article’s thesis). And the second paragraph of avoiding wasted time (by players who may not neccesarily exhibit the genetic traits of athleticism) is also highlighted therein.
So in using genetic traits as a filter for the farm system would exclude those not exhibiting the “athlete gene” (note: I’m not referring to any one particular gene, but jsut the genotype associated with the athletic ability phenotype), at the cost of potentially excluding some “superstar” athlete who didn’t exhibit the genetic traits. As the genetic screen hasn’t been back-tested on baseball players, it is indeed a bit murky to start tying 1-1 corellations with 1 gene to “good baseball players”. But we’ll get there…
by rollierollieOxenfree on Sep 16, 2008 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
AN is messing with me at 1am
this is a response to rfloh’s comment below. sry.
by rollierollieOxenfree on Sep 16, 2008 1:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This test is for
muscle fibre isoform type. “Muscle Power” or more correctly the various things that are often lumped in as “muscle power” such as maximal force production, starting strength, explosive strength, rate of force developement, acceleration strength, strength speed, speed strength, does NOT only depend on muscle fibre isoform type. This test does not account for neural factors. It does not account for the reactive ability of an athlete’s muscles AND tendons and ligaments.
Whereas standard real world tests like counter movement jumps, vertical jumps, depth jumps, standing long jumps, triple jumps, 10 yard sprints, 40 yard sprints, include all the various factors.
Why is this test any more useful, than the variety of other real world tests, and the expert observation of scouts and coaches? Especially since tests like CMJs, VJs, etc can be performed at minimal financial cost?
Asides from that testing muscle fibre isoform type is not going to account for a player’s ability to learn and master baseball specific movement patterns. Motor learning / pattern learning is extremely complex. I disbelieve that there’s going to be any test any time soon, that’s going to be able to account for that.
If you disbelieve me, see:
Science and Practice of Strength Training, 2nd ed, Vladimir Zatsiorsky
Supertraining, 6th ed, Mel Cunningham Siff
Strength and Power in Sport, 2nd ed, editor P V Komi. One volume of the IOC Encyclopaedia of Sports Medicine.
Neuromechanics of Human Movement, Roger Enoka.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Sep 16, 2008 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm,
Firstly, how is this any more “exact” than vertical jump tests, counter movement jump tests, 10 yard, 40 yard sprint tests, standing long jump tests, etc? Forget athletic performance, there are far more factors to maximal force production than just muscle fiber isoform type.
There are neural factors to consider. This test won’t determine an individual’s genetic ability with regards to rate coding, motor unit recruitment, synchronisation of motor units.
The nervous system uses 3 options for varying intra muscular force production. Basically,
-recruitment : the order in which motor units are recruited. “Normal” / untrained people cannot recruit all their FT motor units.
-rate coding: the firing rate of motor units
-synchronisation: activation of motor units in a synchronised manner, instead of in an asynchronised manner, as in “normal” people.
Whereas tests like CMJ, VJ, standing long jump to include the various neural factors, the gene tests does not.
Asides from this, baseball players are not runners. This test will not determine a person’s motor learning / pattern learning ability.
Here is a link to a more thorough article describing this test, instead of some company website:
This is the second gene to be shown to confer athletic ability. The first, angiotensin-converting enzyme, or ACE, makes an enzyme which influences how efficiently our muscles burn oxygen, and the rate at which some muscles grow (New Scientist print edition, 23 May 1998).
.
.
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However, this interpretation is disputed by Montgomery, whose team at University College London discovered ACE and now says it has unpublished evidence pointing to a third gene that predisposes for enhanced ph
ACE also has a direct impact on musculature, Montgomery says, because it influences whether “fast” or “slow” muscle fibres are laid down. And like ACTN3, ACE comes in two main inherited forms: the I form that favours endurance and the D form that favours sprinting.
Montgomery dismisses the notion that talent scouts could genetically screen for future elite athletes. “It’s very unlikely there will be one gene that is a major indicator of performance.” He says many factors influence sporting success, including body size, fibre type, metabolic efficiency, lung volume, psychological make-up and sheer application. “It’s easier to go out with scouts and choose kids who are performing well.”
Members of North’s team accept there is something in this. "Being an elite athlete is not entirely dependent on ACTN3. It is still highly contentious whether we can use genetic markers to predict performance at all.
Finally, I don’t understand the focus on muscle fibre isoform types. There are many many factors involved in athletic performance. Why is it that muscle fibre isoform types seem to get so much attention among some?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Sep 15, 2008 10:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
maybe you should gift Billy
a copy of Gattaca on I-tunes…
by buddahead9 on Sep 15, 2008 11:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nah...
Vincent sure could swim, but he never did learn how to hit the curveball
"All managers are losers, they are the most expendable pieces of furniture on the face of the Earth."- Ted Williams
by Gaijin_Suketto on Sep 15, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The times when we pine for the good ole Performance Enhancers
of yore are soon to be upon us.
Just think, soon we can all spit in a cup for our insurance companies, that way we can all save money by not insuring the genetically fallible among us. Employers can screen their employee’s for any undesirable traits. Universities can recruit only the talent with the best chance of showering the school with academic glory.
I can hardly wait.
"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer
by alox on Sep 15, 2008 11:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
{adds "academic glory shower" to AN euphemism dictionary}
cocky whacko @('.')@
by monkeyball on Sep 15, 2008 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
racehorses
1) they already do it with racehorses. search “horse genome project” for more info.
2) in CA, employers can’t genetically screen for undesirable traits – a law a few years back prevents this (The Genetic Non-discrimination Bill).
by rollierollieOxenfree on Sep 16, 2008 1:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
MLB players are racehorses?
Firstly, even if one accepts that the premise that this one gene, and only this one gene, and no other gene, is responsible for muscle fibre isoform type, there’s far more to force production than just muscle fibre isoform type.
Secondly, there’s much much more to performance in most sports than just maximal force production, or rate of force developement.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
by rfloh on Sep 16, 2008 7:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why draft at all? Why not just cook up your players in a crucible?
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 15, 2008 5:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Just clone Jack Cust eight times
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Sep 15, 2008 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I prefer using a Dan Petry dish
cocky whacko @('.')@
by monkeyball on Sep 16, 2008 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But how would you get saliva samples from baseball players?
{looks at dugout}
Oh.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Sep 15, 2008 9:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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