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AN Visits with Minor League Expert John Sickels

SportsBlogs Nation is really fortunate as we have John Sickels writing the best minor league blog on the Web in Minor League Ball.  Sickels does excellent work at that blog and I suggest you make it part of your daily reading.

I figured it was a great time to check in with him since that's what most of us A's fans have done with 2008, and that's look forward to 2009 and beyond.  Oh and make sure you pick up Baseball Prospect Book 2009 when John releases it next year.  It will be chock full of A's prospects.  Hope you enjoy.



Blez:  - The A's got Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher and Josh Donaldson back for Rich Harden and out of all of the Billy Beane deals in recent years, this one seems to get the most heat.  You gave Patterson a B, Gallagher a B and Donaldson a B.  You're also a notoriously hard grader so a B is a very good prospect.  What do you think the A's ultimately will have to show for a pitcher who couldn't stay healthy?

John Sickels:  Well I like Gallagher a lot, he has been a personal favorite for some time. He is erratic, yes, and he needs to get his walk rate down closer to what it was in the minor leagues, but as long as he remains healthy I still think he's going to be a solid number three starter, an inning-eater type. Patterson isn't really a .195 hitter, I think he's more of a .260-.270 hitter with flashes of power and good speed. He's not terrific but he should be useful. I might have stuck with him a bit too long as a Grade B prospect. Donaldson was having a bad season before the trade, but seemed to get back on track at Stockton after it. Granted, that's a better place to hit than the Midwest League, but still, the Cal League is a level higher than the Midwest League and at least some of the improvement is real. I'd rate him a Grade C+ right now. If everything pans out, they will have a number three starter, a speedy guy who can cover a couple of positions, and power hitting catcher.  

Blez:  Many minor league experts talked throughout the year about the A's young pitching in their system as being the envy of all of baseball.  Of Cahill, Anderson and Mazzaro, which do you think can make the jump right into the rotation next year?

Sickels:  Tough question. I like Cahill and Anderson better than Mazzaro at this point since they have been more consistent. I suspect that Anderson will be ready the soonest, but that Cahill will end up as the best pitcher of the group in the long run. Mazzaro was great in the Texas League obviously but got hit around in the PCL. That's hardly damning of course, but I'm not quite as sold on him given the entirety of his track record. I want to look at more scouting reports as I write my book before I grade him.      

Blez:  Are you higher on Sean Doolittle now?  You gave him a B- in this year's Prospect Book due mostly to his lower batting average.  He was up over .300 this year. 

Sickels:  I was actually more worried about the lack of power in his first look at pro pitching in 2007 than I was about his batting average. He slugged .560 in the Cal League, but reverted to .388 in the Texas League with much worse strike zone judgment and a high strikeout rate. I might go with Grade B now, but I haven't decided yet.

Star-divide

Blez:  Aaron Cunningham is getting a shot with the A's now after a very, very good year in the minors.  You gave him a B- as well but called him a personal favorite.  Where do you think he projects now?

Sickels:  Yeah, I have liked Cunningham for awhile now and would raise his grade to a Grade B. I think that power is going to be an issue for him in the short run, but in the long run he should be something like a .280/.340/.450 guy, with some speed, which isn't superb but is certainly quite useful.    

Blez:  Several A's fans think that the A's rushed Carlos Gonzalez and even Gio Gonzalez and both have kind of crashed and burned.  Do you think that organizations risk long-term psychological damage to these players by calling them up a little too early?
 
Sickels:  Of course they do. It's always a risk when you promote a guy. But both Gonzalezes are still young, and if you are going to succeed in the majors, you have to have emotional resiliency. But I don't know if these guys were really promoted too fast, especially Gio, who had two years of Double-A under his belt and 22 starts in Triple-A. It was time to see what he could do, the decision to promote him was correct. You could say that Carlos needed more Triple-A and I'd agree with that probably.

Blez:  Chris Carter hit only .259 at Stockton, but he just mashed down there.  He had 39 home runs and slugged .569.  The good news is that pre-all star he hit .242 and after he hit .277.  What's your opinion of a comparable for Carter and do you think he's going to progress quickly with that kind of pop?

Sickels:  Well I wrote about Carter on my blog recently. I'm more worried about the very high strikeout rate than the batting average, which can be somewhat flukey as you know. The fact that he draws walks helps. We will know more after we see how he handles Double-A breaking stuff. He has shown the ability to make adjustments before and he's very young.  
 
Blez:  I'm not sure how much you follow the big clubs because you're so focused on the minors, but the A's were counting on the progression of Daric Barton and Travis Buck this year and Barton hasn't shown much until just recently and Buck had a lost year.  Is there anything you notice that Barton is doing differently at the big league level?  Buck looked like a completely different player this year.  Any insight you can offer on these guys?
     
Sickels:  I haven't seen enough of them in person to judge at this point. You and your readers would know more than I would. Buck's injury problems would have to be a factor I would imagine, and Barton is still young enough to grow substantially.

Blez:  Adrian Cardenas seemed to be a good acquistion for the A's as a possible replacement for a could-be-departing Mark Ellis (although I think that would be a big mistake with so many pitchers who throw sinkers coming through the organization).  Your major criticism of him seemed to be his glove.  Did you get a chance to see him this year and if so, what did you think?

    
Sickels:  I haven't seen him this year but will in the Arizona Fall League and can tell you more then. A Texas League source told me that Cardenas looked very good defensively, and he didn't make many errors this year, so on paper anyway it looks like he's really improved.

Blez:  What did you think of the A's draft?  Any shining stars or hidden gems we should keep an eye on and did you like the first pick of Jemile Weeks?

    
Sickels:  I don't have a problem with Weeks. It might be a slight overdraft and Brett Wallace would certainly look like a good pick at this point, or Aaron Hicks, but Weeks does a lot of things well and he should come quickly. The rest of the draft looks pretty solid, although I'm not a huge Tyson Ross guy. I like Jason Christian a lot and thought he was a steal in the fifth round.

Blez:  Have you seen Michel Inoa pitch yet and if you have, what do you think?  Do you think it's wise to spend that kind of money on a 16-year-old pitcher?
     
Sickels:  No, and no. How often do guys like that pan out? Remember Jose Pett? Ricardo Aramboles? I know all about the hype of Inoa and the scouting reports are wonderful, but people get all excited about these kids and most of the time they burn out or get hurt. I'm less paranoid about high school pitching than I used to be, but  there is a huge difference between an 18 year old and a 16 year old.  

Blez:  You didn't much like Mazzaro last year, giving him a C.  Are there still things you'd like to see him improve on?
      
Sickels:  Well I want to see him pitch well in Triple-A. I mean, you have to love what he did at Midland, but it was so much different than the rest of his career, really out of context, that I want to make sure he can sustain it. The improvement in his control was very notable this year, but now he has to show that he can dominate more consitently.
      

Moving up a level can play havoc with a guy. Look at what happened with Craig Italiano this year; dominant in the Midwest League, then horrible in the Cal League. I saw Italiano early in the year for Kane County and he looked terrific, was really in gear with his combination of stuff and command, but it fell apart for him against better competition. I root for Italiano actually, given the injury adversity he's been through. I got to talk with him some this spring and he's a very interesting guy.

Blez:  What do you think of Henry Rodriguez now that he's kind of gone through major ups and downs this year?  Reliever or starter?

Sickels:  Probably a reliever in the long run. And a good one.    

Blez:  Finally, who would you rank as the A's best hitter in the system right now and the best pitcher?

Sickels:  Ask me again after I write up the Athletics system for my book. At this point I really don't know. They have so many people who would have to be considered. The turnaround in this system has been remarkable, through trades and the draft, that to do the question justice would take some time. Let's do this again after I write the Athletics up.

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+1

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Sep 15, 2008 7:29 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I have to disagree with him over Inoa

Is it a low-probability lottery ticket? Sure. But it only looks like “a lot of money” when you look at it in the funhouse-mirror context of Latin American signings, which are almost bizarrely cheap compared to Major League ballplayers.

$4.5 million will buy you one year of David Eckstein. That is really, really not very much. If Inoa has even a 10% chance of becoming a quality MLB starter, he’ll be a better value than Eckstein and it won’t even be close. Even a couple of mediocre seasons as an innings-eating 5th starter will basically pay off the investment.

I haven’t actually done the math, but I suspect that I would have applauded the decision to sign him for up to at least $6 million and possibly as high as $10 million.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 15, 2008 10:20 AM PDT   0 recs

You should do the math, and then make a FaNpOsT about it.

I’ve always thought it was really interesting how “overspending” for these guys, as well as going over slot in the draft, is beneficial in relation to (over) paying for free agents.

I mean, I pretty much understand it, but most of the posts you’ve made about it are all over other random dia… fanposts. You should roll it all up into one.

by mikev on Sep 15, 2008 10:50 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You're right.

There has been a lot of random diarrhea around here lately.

The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.

by rebus on Sep 15, 2008 11:07 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I believe the term you're looking for is logorrhea

[/1999 National Spelling Bee champion]

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 15, 2008 11:28 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You mean the likely AL rookie of the year?

"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL

by oblique on Sep 15, 2008 5:06 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

QOTM

cocky whacko @('.')@

by monkeyball on Sep 15, 2008 5:28 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I was going to say something similar

$4 million is a lot of money, but looking at it in context, as you did with Eckstein, it is a drop in the bucket in the big-picture, and it has potential to pay dividends. Will Inoa most likely not live up to the hype? Probably. If he theoretically signed with the Yankees, because we were too skeptical, and thrived to high-predicted standards? We would all be soo pissed that we missed out.

So why not?

witty remark

by dtownmbrown on Sep 15, 2008 4:55 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, being "paranoid about high school pitchers" makes a lot more sense

when you’re dealing with draft picks. AFAIK, there was no tradeoff with the Inoa signing — we either got him for that bonus, or the owners kept the money.

"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s

by Nick on Sep 15, 2008 6:05 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Well the question is whether they'd have been better off drafting someone like Melville

instead of Paramore, or getting an older prospect from Taiwan or something like that.

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 15, 2008 6:33 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

That assumes, wrongly, that there is a fixed budget for amateur signings

The team has made it fairly clear that, these days, they’re spending money on guys they perceive as “worth it.” It’s not “sign Inoa or sign Zach Elgie,” it’s “sign Inoa or have $4.5 million in the general fund.”

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 15, 2008 7:24 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

No business has an unlimited budget for anything.

I’m not sure of your point here.

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 16, 2008 2:51 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I cannot think of any way in which I could make that more explicit

General budget, not specific budget for each of a bunch of different little activities.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 16, 2008 10:53 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The more I look at the A's system, the less enthusiastic I am about it

at least at higher levels, on the offensive side.

I have good expectations for Chris Carter, I like Aaron Cunningham and I still believe in Travis Buck.

But Doolittle and Cardenas both concern me-doing rather poorly at Double A Midland, and Weeks got injured very quickly.

Spencer and Donaldson bloomed after being acquired, but can they keep it up? And Corey Brown is striking out a hell of a lot.

Where I am excited is in the lower minors about guys like Dixon, Leyja, Coleman and Christian.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Sep 15, 2008 10:23 AM PDT   0 recs

Blez: Several A’s fans think that the A’s rushed Carlos Gonzalez and even Gio Gonzalez and both have kind of crashed and burned. Do you think that organizations risk long-term psychological damage to these players by calling them up a little too early?
 
Sickels: Of course they do. It’s always a risk when you promote a guy.

You could say that Carlos needed more Triple-A and I’d agree with that probably.

blame of the game: zonis

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Sep 15, 2008 10:51 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Nice.

I think we need a “facepalm.jpg” post now.

by VORP is too nerdy on Sep 15, 2008 10:57 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm slightly worried about Christian

His power tailed off at the end of his time at Vancouver. But he is super young for a college draftee. So, as with all 2008 draftees, next year will be the year we find out more about him. Also, I really want to see Dixon and Leyja progress. I almost say they should start in KC just so we get to see a full season out of each. But the MWL is a notoriously pitcher’s league and you don’t want to hurt their confidence by rushing. It’ll be interesting to see how the A’s handle it.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Sep 15, 2008 11:01 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm on record as advocating that the A's take it easy on those guys

Leyja apparently has a lot of work to do defensively, and Dixon struck out a lot in his first partial season. There just isn’t any reason to rush them up. They’re so far from the majors that the “needs” of the MLB club are totally irrelevant to their development.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 15, 2008 11:33 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Here's why I'm not especially worried about Doolittle and Cardenas

1. They each posted very solid numbers over the full season,
2. They were both young-to-very-young for the levels they played at this year, and
3. While they (especially Doolittle) appeared to wear down at the end of the season, they both have very limited experience with playing seasons of this length (and Doolittle had the same thing happen last year).

I’d be troubled if they made no progress next season at AA, but that’s kind of obvious; no progress from any prospect is a bad sign.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 15, 2008 11:40 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Do the A's have any players

that project to be better than average? Any potential all stars?

How about a trade proposal! Duschererererer and Huston for Josh Hamilton!

Let's have our Piazza and eat the Cust too - SPWC

by closetasfan on Sep 15, 2008 12:03 PM PDT   0 recs

No one "projects to be better than average,"

essentially.

There’s an awfully big difference between a “potential all star,” of which the A’s have quite a few, and someone who “projects to be better than average,” of which there are maybe 10 in the entire minor leagues.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 15, 2008 12:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

So the proper question might be:

Are there any of those 10 guys in the A’s system?

by GusanoQuemador on Sep 15, 2008 12:41 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

probably not, but anderson and cahill are fairly close for 20 year old pitchers.

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Sep 15, 2008 12:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

before the trade deadline...

I tried to make the Duchscherer for Hamilton trade rumours happen and no one was down. where were you then! sheesh :)

"Ryan [Sweeney] has got the perfect baseball body..." -Mike Sweeney

by Christine on Sep 15, 2008 8:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

It's great he's interested in doing this again after the A's write-up.

The A’s seem to have good pitching talent and a bunch of potentially useful parts among position player prospects. I’m wondering whether that recipe is going to work without going after big time free agents. It’s pretty hard to trade for top end young players these days.

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Sep 15, 2008 3:14 PM PDT   0 recs

Apropos, since this is sort of the "current prospects thread"

BA ranks the top prospects of the AZL Rookie League.

Link

And some commentary from the chat, on Nino Leyja:

Bill Mitchell: Let’s take an A’s question. Leyja was very close, another guy who I really wish I could have included. He did very well for a 17-year-old. Good hitting skills, good hands and the quickness to play all three infield positions. I didn’t rank him as highly as other middle infielders because, to me, he profiles as more of a utility player at the big league level. I hope he proves me wrong, because I like the kid and will be watching him closely.

And on Rashun Dixon:

I’m very high on Dixon. Yes, he just turned 18, not 21. He is a physical specimen but still very raw. What wasn’t included in his scouting report is his character and makeup; manager Ruben Escalera graded him as 200% —- very coachable and willing to learn. He could be the guy that five years from now we’ll be wondering why he wasn’t ranked #1.

Bill Mitchell: One more question on Dixon because I like talking about him. He’s 6’2", 210 pounds right now with 4.1 speed to first base (extremely good for a right-handed hitter). He may even get bigger, yet still not lose that “wide receiver” speed. That’s very athletic, so I’ll agree with you without analyzing the rest of their system.

Can they loan him to the Niners during the offseason?

On Inoa:

Bill Mitchell: I sure hope so because that means I’d get to watch him in AZ all summer instead of having to go to Vancouver or Kane County. I’m just disappointed that he’s not coming to Instructional League and I have to wait until next March to get my first look at himn.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 15, 2008 7:42 PM PDT   0 recs

{blinks}

6’2" 210# at 18?

Jiminy Jillikers.

cocky whacko @('.')@

by monkeyball on Sep 16, 2008 9:47 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Speaking of same chat

I thought this was an interesting comment..

Q: Sean Doolittle from virginia asks:
whats your take on my younger brother Ryan, should he stay on the mound or hit like me?

 A:
Bill Mitchell: I didn’t get to see Doolittle until late in the season and didn’t review him with his manager, so I can’t comment too much on his pitching OR his hitting ability. However, he’s been invited to Instructs, so that means that the Athletics see something in him.

"He's pretty nasty," Gardenhire said. "The last pitch to Harris, we went and watched it, it's on the black. It cut the outside corner of the plate, the tip of it, and that's pretty nasty."
(Ron Gardenhire on Brad Ziegler)

by catfish hunter on Sep 15, 2008 8:14 PM PDT   0 recs

It's not actually Sean Doolittle...

Impersonating athletes or coaches and then posing chat questions in the first-person is a too-cute-by-half meme which is common to these things.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 15, 2008 8:49 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I know - for a while there I was really

believing that Ziggy himself posted on AN and pitched for Oakland. Boy did I feel dumb when I learned it was really louismg who pitched all those scoreless innings.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Sep 15, 2008 9:23 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Strange

For a while there I thought you were Cindi. Little did I know it was the other way around.

In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!

by DMOAS on Sep 15, 2008 9:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

So it WAS you

that posted this?

My head hurts.

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Sep 16, 2008 7:03 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Enjoyed the read

I'm here to talk about the past.

by 67MARQUEZ on Sep 16, 2008 7:06 AM PDT   0 recs

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