Beane's latest moves testing faith
Like most of you, I believe Billy Beane knows what he is doing. He's a genious -- except for the Hudson trade, right? Even that deal might turn out with Meyer now in Oakland and Hudson's career in jeapardy due to elbow injury.
Still it's hard to stomach that the A's had a pretty nice season going midway before he continued blowing up the team. The A's have quickly become the most unwatchable team in majors.
Recent trades make no sense. No top prospects. I mean how many 2nd basemen do the A's need? Murton, Patterson -- these are not hot young prospects. This whole quantity over quality is difficult to believe in. Is he just throwing a bunch of slop against the wall and hoping some of it sticks?
I've been thropugh lean years with Mitchell Page, Wayne Gross and Dave Kingman -- those teams sucked, but they scored some runs and were entertaining. If the A's are going to stink for a few years I say move in the fences and load up the line-up with all-bat no glove guys. At least entertain us.
In the end Beane's plan will probably work out, but it's not fun right now.
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Comments
prospects
gallagher with his great minor league track record at 22, hopefully will be good.
murton/patterson may be useful mlb ready players, but i doubt cubs miss them
donaldson may have regained his status as a top tier catching prospect.
beane was willing to throw in gaudin, just to get gallagher who cubs kept untouchable.
cardenas is a top 30 type prospect, he’s the caliber prospect you want deals built around. for a struggling blanton thats the best they were able to do. the issue is he’s a bit further away and nor at a huge position need. if he was able to show that he’s a capable ss/3b, that would take care of one need over the next 6 yrs or so.
outman/spencer werent really names we heard about at all. but seem interesting prospects. if only they couldve tricked phillies in adding jason donald SS for embree, they declined. for results on the blanton deal is maybe 2 yrs away to judge that deal. compared to the cubs deal, weve seen 3 players but give it some time. though it looks worse now since harden/gaudin are dominating
by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 5, 2008 8:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No, it's not fun now, but keep the faith
Too much is being made of “Beane’s moves” because of an important coincidence of timing: Beane traded Harden and Gaudin and then Blanton, and right about the same time the A’s embarked upon a hellish 2-16 stretch, which makes it look like Beane “blew up the team.” That perception is mostly incorrect, however.
What’s changed, really? Two things, primarily: Braden is taking Blanton’s starts, for one. That’s pretty much been a wash, since Blanton wasn’t pitching well and Braden hasn’t been awful. On the other hand, Gallagher has not been as good as Harden, but how much is that worth, really? Maybe two games so far, if that? (After all, Harden probably loses to Halliday yesterday too, because the A’s offense scored one measly run – and remember that Harden’s relatively short starts left considerable room for things to go bad after he left the games.) So maybe Beane’s move turned a 4-14 skid into a 2-16 skid, at worst. Either of those skids would be sufficient to end the team’s postseason hopes. Some will point to the psychological effects of the trades, but I don’t have much patience with those kinds of arguments, and even if I did, there’s no plausible way psychology can account for the vast difference between 2-16 and some acceptable record: 2-16 reveals some serious weaknesses. This team had a bad offense, several important injuries, some pitchers that were due to regress a bit and who also had some looming fatigue issues as they approached career IP highs, and a brutal second-half schedule. The A’s were walking a tightrope and due for a tumble (which I’m sure has a lot to do with why Beane felt able to make the moves he did – while it wasn’t impossible the A’s could have somehow kept dodging bullets and stayed in contention all year, the odds weren’t good enough to justify interrupting the master plan).
The last few weeks have been painfully ugly and disspiriting, and they followed two big Beane trades – but despite appearances the ugliness has been only to a quite small degree a result of those trades.
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 8:52 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Oh come on, Harden would never lose to Halliday 2-1
(Except he did, earlier this year.)
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 5, 2008 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
halladay
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 5, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've always thought he used an upper-case H
;-)
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's humble
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 5, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There was probably a psycological effect
When you trade away your most exciting pitcher and your opening day starter, I can see the team losing a little confidence over all.
If we hadn’t traded away those players, we would have continued to play exactly how we had been playing over the previous 3 months: .500 baseball. Was that good enough to make the playoffs?
Yes we were sitting at 8 or 9 games over .500 when we made the trade. But that was due to the month of April when the team led the league in RISP, while their team average sat a good 100 points lower. They were getting lucky.
So the A’s brass took a look at the team, decided they had probably used up all the luck they were going to get in one season and they went back to their plan. That plan, as Billy clearly stated in the off-season, was to rebuild the right way. Do it completely and thoroughly.
The A’s decided they could either hang on to a .500 season, and keep the fans relatively happy or truly gut the team, fill some gaps in future plans and make sure they rebuild the right way, fans be damned. I for one think we’ll be praising Billy for doing what he did, 2 years from now.
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 5, 2008 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
only problem is
we couldn’t quite gut the team. crosby, embree et al are still here.
good post though, i wish more people would realize this instead of talking about how they miss RICH HARDIN!!!1
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 5, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
so that's where you put the "i" you took out of "Halliday"
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
killing me
i think i have about 30 posts out of whatever i have saying “it’s harden, not hardin”
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 5, 2008 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
wish i heard this opinion more often
by oakinboston on Aug 5, 2008 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1 from me as well
I don’t want to jinx it or anything, but you are in the midst of a prodigious run of comment awesomeness, analagous in baseball terms to Bob Gibson in June of ‘68, or Barry Bonds in September, 2001.
by 74mk on Aug 5, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
(golf clap)
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Aug 5, 2008 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Recent trades make no sense. No top prospects. I mean how many 2nd basemen do the A’s need? Murton, Patterson—these are not hot young prospects. This whole quantity over quality is difficult to believe in. Is he just throwing a bunch of slop against the wall and hoping some of it sticks?
how is cardenas not a top prospect? or is it that he’s too old at 20?
donaldson (1.108 OPS, Dec 1985) and spencer (1.210 OPS, Jan 1986)... are they not hot enough or not young enough?
patterson has a 1.005 OPS, gallagher is 22…
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 9:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
billy beane: braindead GM throwing prospect slop against walls nightly
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harden trade.
I’m not sure I understand the urgency in the deal. It’s still early, but so far in losing Harden the A’s got two players in return who have yet to prove they can stay in the big leagues. Gallagher seems decent enough so far, but he doesn’t seem to have near the stuff that Harden does, and I’m not sure he will ever outperform Harden unless Harden is on the DL. This goes without saying Beane just tossed in Gaudin. Harden had another year left, so it’s not like there was a lot of urgency. If his value wasn’t high enough to warrant a better return, then maybe he would have been affordable to re-sign for another 2-3 years. Given the time left on Harden’s contract I think you have to wait until you get a better return. Otherwise if a team is not going to overpay for him, why not just wait until the offseason when there are more possible suitors with a wider variety of prospects to work with. I guess the obvious response is that Harden could get hurt and lose value. Regardless, does anyone think Patterson and Murton are going to still be with the team in 2 years making a big impact? The offense still lacks a power hitting corner outfielder, and future 3B, and SS. Trading away Harden was probably the best shot at filling these voids, but none of that happened.
What about Barry?
"Barry who?" Forst said, and I felt like I was in the middle of a knock-knock joke.
by KMoAsFan on Aug 5, 2008 9:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The urgency
1. Harden looked like an injury was imminent
2. Harden has a $7M club option for next year that Beane would have had to make a really tough decision on.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and he's still going 5 or 6 innings
in most starts
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 5, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Surprisingly, I actually agree with most of this
Well, not the part about Harden signing a cheap extension. Harden did not, as far as I can tell, particularly care for Oakland and he thought that he wasn’t injury prone. That doesn’t add up to a bargain-price extension.
That said, I really didn’t see what the urgency was. None of the players the A’s got back project as star players and the team wasn’t starved for depth options at corner outfield or SP. I understand that Harden’s value was probably going to decline when he injured himself again, but sometimes it’s worth taking a gamble where you know the odds are against you because the payoff is high enough. If a full healthy season from Harden would have commanded a superior SS or 3B prospect (not that there are a lot of those right now… bear with me here) then I think the A’s should have held him.
Now, it may be that his value in trade was just irreparably damaged by his injury record and the A’s were never going to get a good return for him. Certainly the fact that they got more for Blanton suggests that GMs put a premium on durability. But if they could have gotten an elite prospect, I think they should have tried, even at the acknowledged risk of having him implode and getting nothing.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
- some writer said a few months ago that harden would only bring the a’s back one top prospect, because GMs worried about his durability.
- unless some GM says “hey, i was willing to trade a lot more for harden!” i’m going to assume beane took the best deal available.
- i like gallagher/patterson/donaldson/murton more than i like(d) harden’s chances of staying healthy all season after watching his final few starts with the a’s.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I'm reasonably sure it was the best deal available at the time
and, as I said, I fully agree that Harden’s chances of making it through a season uninjured were lousy.
The best analogy I can come up with is that Beane had a lottery ticket with a 15% chance of winning $100 and he sold it for ten bucks.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the thing
Slusser reported after the Harden trade that Beane had only spoken to Hendry! It sounds like he didn’t even elicit offers from other teams.
by faninphilly on Aug 5, 2008 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i doubt that
a lot
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 5, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think she did say that, though
The thing is, everyone in baseball knew Harden was available. You aren’t going to get a better deal cold-calling teams that haven’t bothered to express an interest in Harden. Everyone who was willing to give anything realistic had surely made their interest known to Beane.
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i haven't seen the article
or even looked for it, but i don’t see how beane would only talk to one team about a guy who had interest going. that doesn’t seem like the way he operates
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 5, 2008 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beane doesn't call teams to offer players
He “mentions they’re available” in the media and sees what happens.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
regardless
it doesn’t add up to me that he would talk to one team.
by the way, calvin and hobbes…best comic ever
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 5, 2008 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yes and no
The Cubs were interested early in Harden, thus they were the only party Beane was talking to at the time. If Beane had been willing to hold on to Harden until the July 31st deadline drew closer he would have received more offers.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Aug 5, 2008 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure they tried
But there’s not much you can do when people you’re negotiating with say ‘no’.
I for one think that they are higher on Gallagher than people think. Others know more about prospects than I do, but I’d be curious to see how Gallagher ranked say, 2 years ago in the Cubs system. I get the sense that people were as high on Gallagher as they were on Haren at his age.
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 5, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I think that they are higher on Gallagher than people think."
I agree with this. The Olney post-trade article made it quite clear that Beane wasn’t just accepting whatever package of goodies was out there, but was specifically targeting Gallagher as the main component of the return. Part of that may have been not giving up on the current season (getting a MLB-ready pitcher back), but part of it was probably their own evaluation of Gallagher, and the value of the trade largely depends on how correct that evaluation turns out to be. If Sean Gallagher turns into Dan Haren redux, people will stop yelling about how we got ripped off in the Harden trade. If he struggles for a couple of years and drops out of the mix, then it won’t look like we got much value for Harden.
For what it’s worth, I didn’t like the trade either, but I’ve since kind of reconciled to it because I can see the logic used and I’m willing to wait and see how Gallagher turns out.
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was exactly my reaction
“Wow, we traded Harden. We must have been blown away by someone.”
“Who are these guys (at least we got Murton)?!?”
“PECOTA says Gallagher sucks”
“OMG the sky is falling”
“Oooo, apparently we really like Gallagher, Donaldson is better than his numbers this season, and we have Ellis insurance. I get it.”
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, except "getting it" for me wasn't necessarily agreeing with it
But I think Patterson is never going to produce much above replacement, Murton seems to have lost it, and I’m not sure I see Donaldson in the major league future because I really like Suzuki. And I wouldn’t trade Harden for Gallagher straight up.
Still, there’s obviously logic behind it. I just don’t agree with the apparent assessment of some of the players.
by thejd44 on Aug 5, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Donaldson was the second highest rated hitter last year
among catchers, and he just recently started playing some again at his old position: 3B. Does that help you feel better? It does me.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 5, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind
Haren wasn’t exactly dominant his first couple years with the club.
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 5, 2008 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
i think we would take a 14-12 season from gallagher next year or whatever it was
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 5, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a non sequiter
I mean, the Mariners were higher on Horacio Ramirez than people thought. Turned out “people” were right on that one.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yea well those "people"
did not include any one named Billy Beane, one of the best evaluators of pitching talent in the game.
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 5, 2008 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really get what you mean by non sequiter in this context
Surely the A’s merit more of an assumption of competence in their evaluations of pitching talent than the Mariners do, and that’s implicit in wormburner’s post?
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention the fact that one mistake
hardly proves that teams should stop trusting their player evaluations.
by ohmangoAs on Aug 5, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more thing....
...which is that with Gio, Simmons, Cahill and Anderson all within a year of getting to the Majors, and with Eveland and Smith still learning (as of the trade) at the MLB level, what was Beane doing trading for another not-quite-ready starter, even if his potential is higher than the “experts” say it is? Not to mention the fact that along with Harden, Beane traded the man who would’ve replaced either Harden or Blanton in the rotation, and someone who would be, looking at where we are today, the #2 guy in the rotation, Gaudin. As for Murton and Patterson - neither are MLB-ready at the moment, and with the prospects of an extension for Ellis in the offing, both are essentially superfluous.
It was a trade meant to get some kind of “value” for a trading piece, a philosophical idea that is, I think, irrelevant when you’re talking about a special talent like Rich Harden.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Harden deal was just a salary/health liability dump
It is the only thing that makes sense because we traded and ace for a couple of jokers
"the A's need more quality preembreetive pitching" ~monkeyball
by OptimistPrime on Aug 5, 2008 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Optimism Fail
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 9:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You're getting more cryptic as you get more laconic
I didn’t get this one.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it would have made sense if i had left this thread.
that was the plan, but i just couldn’t stop…
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Someone on ESPN Board posted that Gio is starting Thursday
I am not sure that is official, I am thinking they read in Rotoworld that he is a strong candidate.
Sure would be nice for him to get some early runs and build his confidence with a victory. This will be the one bright spot of the second half.
On another note:
Since the AS break I notice we have scored 45 runs which is 66 runs less than the leading team (30 of 30)
Our team ERA is over 5.
Seeing this, it is amazing we have won 2 games. There should be a penalty for being bad like deducting 1st half wins. (LOL)
I hate unproductive outs and the A's are producing them at record production
by Trainman on Aug 5, 2008 10:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
My new pet peeve: bashing Billy Beane for the Hudson trade
this basically sums up my point:
The distinction between decision and outcome is still not clear for most people. When someone makes an investment, and then loses money, he often says that he made a bad decision. If he would make the same decision again if he did not know how it would turn out, then he would be more accurate in saying that he made a good decision and had a bad outcome.
—Ronald Howard, Professor of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University
it’s fine if you want to say the outcome of the trade is bad (and are you saying that as loudly now that Huddy is having TJ surgery?)
But to imply that trade was a poor decision at the time it was made, is at the very least highly debatable, or, imo, just plain wrong.
by oakinboston on Aug 5, 2008 10:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
oops, reply below
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The distinction between [at bat] and outcome is still not clear for most people. When someone [takes a big swing], and then [strikes out], he often says that he [had a bad at-bat]. If he would [take the same swing] again if he did not know how it would turn out, then he would be more accurate in saying that he [had a good at-bat] and had a bad outcome.
—Ryan Howard, Professor of Slugging, Philadelphia Phillies
I don’t know why I did this, it just amused me.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Howard's a plagiarist
Jack Cust, Professor of Slugging, Oakland A’s
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 5, 2008 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cust is merely an Asst. Prof. -- he doesn't have tenure yet
... and, yes, Beane’s likely to replace him with a TA before he gets in front of the tenure committee.
This is the highest-known density of gorillas that's ever been found. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Aug 5, 2008 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 5, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you kidding? Cust OWNS the school
The Jack Cust Academy of Hitting
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 5, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
my huddy trade joke fell flat...
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 10:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I liked that joke
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on Aug 5, 2008 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and, hey,
don’t judge a joke by it’s outcome. If you employed all the proper methods of humor but no one laughed, you should limit the recriminations.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on Aug 5, 2008 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
QOTM
Greed and fear cause over-reactions in both directions. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Aug 5, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i was considering posting something similar
but considering the mourning tone of that post I decided to let the fans grieve in peace.
by oakinboston on Aug 5, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know the chances of Harden getting hurt are very good, but watching him just
dominate with the cubs while Gallagher has just completely sucked for the A’s is hard.
by Erin6 on Aug 5, 2008 10:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think half your posts are
hatred towards Gallagher?
by buddahead9 on Aug 5, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The team is not losing because it does not have Harden and it certainly is not losing because it does not have Blanton ...
This team is losing because the offense is atrocious. Adding back Harden probably gives the team an extra 1-2 wins, relative to where they are. Adding Blanton probably does not add any. Would you feel better if the team were 55-56 and a mere 14.5 games behind the Halos? If the current streak were 4-14 instead of 2-16?
Again, the problem is not the pitching—it is the fact that the team has scored only 2.7 runs per game over the last 18.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 10:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think they are losing like this because they don't have Harden, but if you are going to
trade away a pitcher like him, you expect to get more back in the trade, and IMO the A’s got completely screwed over in that trade.
by Erin6 on Aug 5, 2008 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh ... he got a decent haul ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree. Especially since he threw in Gaudin as well.
by Erin6 on Aug 5, 2008 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We'll have to agree to disagree ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gaudin wasn't just a throw in...
...without him the deal doesn’t get done. He’s insurance for the Cubs if/when Harden self-destructs. Could Beane have gotten more? Maybe, but I think it’s still too early to tell whether or not we got screwed by this deal. It seems like A’s managment is pretty high on Gallagher just as the Cubs were and some of the other guys could surprise in the system just as Harden did when he was coming up.
Or they could all be crap.
On the other hand, you have different fingers.
by Streams Of Whiskey on Aug 5, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gaudin is worth considerably more than being "Harden insurance"
And that’s the gripe most have with giving him up.
by thejd44 on Aug 5, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guys who complain about their roles/playing time
aren’t usually around very long. Just sayin’...
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 5, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is the main issue for the A's fans that don't like the deal
Gaudin to some people is “considerable value”. To me, he’s really not all that valuable. I see nothing about Gaudin that’s better than what we can get from, say, Braden, but the deal gets done with Gaudin and not with Braden. Complaining about your role won’t get you very far, either.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Aug 5, 2008 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saying "the offense is atrocious" is a bit strong, don't you think?
Teams have won World Cups scoring less on average than the A’s have.
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So by your standard
Only the 49ers have an atrocious offense?
[heavy sigh]
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hanging out with BB a bit too much?
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the majority of AN's view on the Harden trade is this:
The trade was necessary and had to be made at some point before Harden was re-injured. Gallagher is a good to very good pitcher with potential to be a star. Murton is a good buy low candidate if we were looking for cheap upgrades to our outfield. As a replacement for DFA, he’s fine but not someone major we would trade for. Patterson is a good but not great prospect, who’s getting old and has not succeeded in the majors. Another buy-low candidate. Donaldson, at the time, was a throw-in. We would have been consenting but not ecstatic with Harden for those four guys, as Gallagher looked like the only great chip.
For Gaudin to be thrown in, we wanted one more stud prospect. We wanted Vitters, possibly at the extent of Patterson/Murton. If we didn’t get that stud, we could send a guy like Braden as the “insurance” on Harden.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Aug 5, 2008 11:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If you think Gaudin could be the difference between Patterson/Murton and Vitters
I think you have a seriously exaggerated view of Gaudin’s value. And I liked Gaudin.
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder why you undervalue a 25-year-old pitcher who
is not only versatile, but over the past three years has been well above average.
by thejd44 on Aug 5, 2008 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not undervaluing him at all
But in saying that Gaudin should be worth upgrading from Patterson/Murton to Vitters, you’re actually asserting that Gaudin was worth more than Harden himself – because the Cubs weren’t offering Vitters for Harden.
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gaudin was actually pretty terrible in 2007
And his WHIP in 2006 was 1.45. I don’t see anything special.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Aug 5, 2008 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Slight caveat
He did pitch injured for a while.
by sec119 on Aug 5, 2008 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Donaldson was more than a throw-in ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I only know about prospects what you, grover, PT, et al. tell me ...
... but I have a very steal-Ellis-from-the-Royals-as-a-”throw-in” vibe from Donaldson’s inclusion in the deal.
This is the highest-known density of gorillas that's ever been found. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Aug 5, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I definitely see him as a throw-in
Both he and Spencer seemed like fliers on theoretically talented guys having bad seasons.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Philosophical Point
This is the second year in a row that Billy Beane has made a key midseason move, after which the team fell apart. Last year the A’s were holding it together until Bradley went, then whoosh, in the toilet. This year, it was combination of the Harden and Blanton trades (no matter what one thinks of the quality of either trade). I don’t think it was a coincidence, despite all the comments about the cruddiness of the team’s offense.
I have some problems with stat-guy arguments because I don’t trust a number of the more complex statistics, but I can go with them. I have a huge problem with two philosophical holes in their arguments, holes that have no basis, statistical or otherwise, for existing.
The first hole is the idea that anything that is not quantifiable does not exist. Thus, “clutch” doesn’t exist. Thus, “intangibles” don’t exist. Thus, “clubhouse cancers” don’t exist. I have a problem with this one, but not within this thread.
The second hole is the idea that the ONLY thing motivating a player is his personal career, with the attendant idea that team spirit doesn’t matter, success breeding success doesn’t matter, depression doesn’t matter, any motivation other than personal greed doesn’t matter. A player is a professional and always tries his hardest, no matter the circumstances. People only play for themselves and their families, what the team does doesn’t affect them because it’s irrelevant to their psychological motivation. Thus, the A’s were bound to fall apart whether the trades happened or not and it’s just luck they played better before the trades.
There is ABSOLUTELY NO reason to buy this argument. There is no statistical reason, there is no psychological reason. The Diamondbacks and Rockies played over their heads all last year, and went to the playoffs. Many teams have played over their heads because of the motivation of getting to the playoffs.
My own feeling: Beane, as an objectivist/libertarian (based on comments from Michael Lewis), buys this philosophy. It is not in his make-up to think that the trades destroyed the team and the team’s chances, just has it’s unlikely for him to believe that his Bradley dump last year had any psychological effect on what happened subsequently.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 11:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wait, you're arguing that clubhouse cancers exist
and then you’re saying that the team tanked after trading Bradley?
Those statements seem mutually exclusive.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
cancers shouldn't be treated preemptively with domineering, colonizing Western medicine
Getting rid of Bradley was like using toxic chemotherapy to poison the entire body.
Beane should have used a more holistic, homeopathic treatment.
He should have signed Bonds.
This is the highest-known density of gorillas that's ever been found. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Aug 5, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, actually
Yes. Signing Bonds might well have motivated the entire team to perform better, no matter how difficult the guy might be. I used the examples of Manny and Bonds just because they’re assumed to be clubhouse cancers. It’s possible that someone like Sidney Ponson might have a more negative effect on a team, particularly on the days he’s pitching. Or not. Like I say, I’m not in the clubhouse.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope, I'm not
I’m arguing that any given player COULD affect how a team performs, not that he does or does not. It’s pretty obvious that in the context of how the A’s did with Milton Bradley on the team, he was not a clubhouse cancer in that his personality did not negatively affect how the team performed, and that in fact, his quality as a player overcame whatever negatives he might have had in the clubhouse. This could also be true for Manny and Bonds, or not. I’m not in the clubhouse, I’m not working with these people.
But to assume that personalities play absolutely no difference, under any circumstances, in how people perform is just psychologically wrong. That’s my point.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bradley ...
okay, let’s test this hypothesis.
2007 A’s before Bradley DFA
.739 OPS
4.37 r/g
2007 A’s after Bradley DFA
.749 OPS
4.68 r/g
Whoops …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously the Bradley departure mortally wounded the souls of the pitching staff
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
kinda like how the hitters were devastated to lose joe “opening day starter” blanton
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, let's look at a less specific measure rather than a more specific one
Perhaps it will blur reality!
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if anything we should look at the most intangible measure. how was the team’s heart before and after?
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've put a call in to Dr. Earl Holloway
It’s been ringing for hours. I’m a bit worried, actually.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 5, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So your thesis then has evolved to the Bradley trade ...
causing Danny Haren to post a 4.35 era post DFA, compared to 1.78 pre DFA …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bradley leaving caused Haren's BABIP to go up 100 points
Man, he must have been an AWESOME outfielder.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I always thought he covered a lot of ground
Especially when he beat Crosby to all those ground balls.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think these attempts to disprove it are any more persuasive than the original argument
They tanked right after the Bradley dfa. Was it out of demoralization? Maybe. I don’t think so, but maybe. I don’t think various before/after numbers are particularly relevant. They made several offensive upgrades in the second half (Kendall, Crosby being hurt, Hannahan being better than Chavy). Not clear what the point of those numbers is. Certainly they would have scored more runs with Bradley, but that’s not even the issue.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on Aug 5, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The issue - according to richwol - is we DFA'd Bradley and the team tanked
PT et al are showing that the team tanked because, well, the pitching got a lot worse. The point about Haren’s BABIP is the most obviously issue-related one because it shows a huge shift in luck.
Basically there is a correlation but not a causation, and I think the posts have made that pretty clear.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correlation
Does not mean causation and it also does not mean there was no causation.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
But the reasons for the correlation (as explained above) make it pretty clear
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, no, they don't explain going into a tailspin
right away, other than in a tautological way. That’s something you can’t prove either way, and it’s a matter of how plausible you think it is or how big an effect you think it would have. Most of us don’t find plausible, but I don’t think citing various stats (particularly if what we’re talking about is the period right after the dfa) is very helpful.
The A's colors are green and gold.
by mikeA on Aug 5, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay ... how about this ...
The downturn started a week and a half before Bradley was DFA’d. The pitching staff had already started pitching like crap, having allowed 5.56 runs per game over the previous 9 games. There’s no correlation.
The team managed to win 5 of 9—but that was thanks to some stellar offense, no thanks to Milton Bradley, who was injured.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Psychological Effect
The offense may have been putting in the extra effort because they felt help was on the way. Or not. That’s why you can’t measure the effect of certain moves because it’s the reasons why people act the way they do aren’t always clear.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that last sentence was incoherent. sorry.
Let me try again. Holding it together until the cavalry comes to the rescue was certainly a possibility. When the cavalry didn’t come, the center didn’t hold. This year, the cavalry was Frank Thomas - but when Harden, Gaudin and Blanton were traded, the team was no longer strong enough for anyone to come to the rescue. Psychologically, that’s devastating.
My guess is that they’ll all get over it, and the team will play better, but it’s too late for 2008.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The center already wasn't holding ...
the team had lost 6 of 9 leading up to the Harden trade, scoring a paltry 3.1 runs per game.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
much unlike now, since they've "given up"
since the ASB they’ve only scored 2.8/game.
And don’t give me none of your sample size either. Harden on the team was worth 0.3 runs / game to our hitters’ motivation.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay ...
Whatever …
The loss of a player who was universally disliked and had been injured virtually the entire season caused the team’s motivation to falter, which manifested itself in the offense not drastically over performing for the balance of the season to make up for declines from a pitching staff that had been performing over its head to that point …
Fine … that makes a ton of sense, really, it does.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Careful Devo
Anything’s possible. And it’s just his opinion.
Also, I think it’s well established that the A’s have the psychological resiliency of five year olds (unless, of course, you consider that they’ve reached the pinnacle of one of the most psychologically challenging professions in the world and are therefore probably able to perform whether or not “the cavalry is on their way”)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The thing about intangibles
Is that, if they exist, they’re not really “intangible.” Or more precisely, their effects would not be intangible.
When someone hauls out one of these arguments, like for example “If you acquire an ace like so-and-so to lead your staff, it makes all the other pitchers better,” the fact is, it’s testable. The fact is, even the people making the “intangibles” arguments don’t really think the intangibles are completely intangible – they think the intangibles result in wins. And wins are statistics. So you can look for all comparable instances of teams acquiring aces like so-and-so and see if his rotation mates exceeded their otherwise expected production, and whether the team won more than it would otherwise have done. If something doesn’t leave any trace in the numbers, then generally, for all intents and purposes, it really doesn’t exist (and hence it’s truly “intangible” in the sense that there’s nothing there that can be touched – if I’m correct in thinking that the Latin roots mean literally “untouchable”). If “clutch” exists, then it results (by definition) in more wins and better numbers at critical times – it can’t possibly exist without leaving its traces in the numbers. (Clutch is still a debated issue even in “stathead” circles, but it’s clear that even if it does exist, it does so to a much weaker extent than most people imagine.)
I don’t know if anyone’s studied the psychological effects of midseason trades, but I would venture that these are just the kinds of things that are rarely if ever found to have much effect. The fact is that the A’s could have gone either way and there would have been a ready-made narrative just waiting on the shelf to explain it: If they tank, it’s because management gave up on the season! If they take off, it’s because they rallied together to meet the challenge of those who didn’t believe in them! A big event like the A’s trades can be (and will be) used to “explain” whatever happens next. And when that is the case, you need to look at those explanations with a very conservative eye.
We humans are hugely predisposed to strongly associate correlation with causation, because causation is a type of correlation although the reverse need not be true. This can result in a lot of wrong conclusions if we’re not careful.
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what you don't seem to realize is that the act of counting something turns you into a robot
In fact, inscribing an accounting of an event into any sort of durable, archivable, transmissible medium robotocizes you.
Those who merely oppose statistics are ameliorist quislings who will be the first ones up against the wall when real men overthrow the machines without using any symbolic language whatsoever.
This is the highest-known density of gorillas that's ever been found. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Aug 5, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I saw all that in a movie once...
and btw, the Ameliorist Quislings might make a great name for a band…
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or the children of a submarining MLB pitcher...
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
by oblique on Aug 5, 2008 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't it be that merely observing and calculating the stats
change the numbers themselves?
Of course, this study would say that we should tell the hitters we are observing them, and maybe we would get a temporary improvement.
"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty
by 5Aces on Aug 5, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Freddy Riedenschneider
...They got this guy, in Germany. Fritz something-or-other. Or is it. Maybe it’s Werner. Anyway, he’s got this theory, you wanna test something, you know, scientifically-how the planets go round the sun, what sunspots are made of, why the water comes out of the tap-well, you gotta look at it. But sometimes, you look at it, your looking changes it. Ya can’t know the reality of what happened, or what would’ve happened if you hadden a stuck in your goddamn schnozz. So there is no ‘what happened.’ Not in any sense that we can grasp with our puny minds. Because our minds… out minds get in the way. Looking at something changes it. They call it the ‘Uncertainty Principle.’ Sure, it sounds screwy, but even Einstein says the guy’s on to something.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That sounds like a scientist version of Tony LaRussa
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, larussa did attend law school
Well, the best, the money-is-no-object best, for a criminal case, any lawyer would tell you Freddy Riedenschneider. Out of Sacramento. ‘Course, I don’t know how you’re fixed for money.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That reminds me of those youtube vids about quantum physics
where the molecules act differently simply because they are being observed.
by mikev on Aug 5, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why quantum computing is so cool
100% guaranteed security at all times with no effort.
(Also, can break any currently existing security algorithm in seconds)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good points
You’re right that any narrative can be created to “fit” the circumstances that happen thereafter, and in fact, it’s really easy to find cause and effect where none exists, or to create cause for an effect that already exists. The variables are too great.
But in the case of the Harden/Blanton deals, when three of your top pitchers are traded within, what, a one-week period, it sends a message to the team. How the team responds to the message is unknown, and you’re right, the A’s COULD have taken off at that point —not likely, but possible -- in which case people would be calling Beane a genius on two fronts.
There are countless examples in baseball when a single event (going back to the story of a harmonica incident on a New York Yankees bus in 1964 and before) changed the course of a team’s season. Was there really a cause and effect? Would things have changed? Are we creating fictional scenarios to tie into a specific change in behavior?
What I do know is this: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. And assuming that by “fixing” it, you do NOT change the outcome, one way or another, is wrong.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lots of things affect outcomes, I grant you, some more clearly than others
And just about everything has some effect, however small.
But the A’s are 16.5 games behind right now (oof – hadn’t checked that for a while). What do you think the psychological effects are worth, of all that? Two games? I could buy that that’s possible. Twelve games? Not a chance in the world – there’s no way at all that psychology trumps talent to that massive a degree. If it did, these intangibles wouldn’t be intangible at all – the effects would hugely evident (thus “tangible”) by even cursory study of the plethora of teams that have undergone such midyear trades.
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another possibility is that the A's were going to tank either way,
because they weren’t that good and weren’t going to get healthy fast enough, so Beane decided to tank one way rather than another.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 5, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
another possibility
is the a’s have a really tough schedule post-all star break this year, as certain people said many times back in the spring.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he was right
and they sure tanked.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay ...
1. On the clutch/intangibles argument - I’m fine with the idea that there are things that are difficult to measure the actual act of. Sure, maybe Captain Charisma helps the Yankees win more than his tepid offense and frigid defense would lead us to believe … maybe those intangibles are not measurable in and of themselves. That’s fine. But assuming it is the case - wouldn’t those intangibles lead to a measurable result - more runs scored and/or more wins? Right? And if they don’t - maybe they still exist, but if they don’t result in wins, who cares? Just because something is intangible does not mean that it does not exist—but if it does not lead to the team winning, thus becoming measurable, it does not matter.
2. This is a pure straw man. Of course players are human and subject to to human emotions that affect their play. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of this year’s team felt let down seeing two key members of the rotation traded away while the team was still ostensibly in contention. This could very well lead to diminished play. In fact, the team has gone 6-17 while scoring a pathetic 3.1 runs per game. Billy Beane knew that he was giving up on this season when he made the trades. For better or worse, he was okay with that. I would be shocked if last year’s team, though, felt that way about losing Bradley. For one, he was, by all accounts, extremely unpopular. On top of that, he had only played 19 games to that point of the season.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One explanation
...is that teams can hold it together and play over their heads for a limited period of time if they feel help is on the way. Bradley was that help, and it is certainly possible he wouldn’t have made a difference, and the team would have still tanked. And he was very unpopular.
What we know is this: the team tanked last year after Bradley was dumped. The team tanked this year after the two trades.
Is it a straw man to suggest that there MIGHT be a correlation, in either or both cases? The A’s played listlessly after the Bradley trade last year. The A’s are playing listlessly today. Once again, getting back to my original thesis: psychology plays a role in how people behave, and team psychology plays a role in how players play. To assume that the only motivating factor is a person’s self-interest (which is what many of the stat folks argue) is, I think, untrue.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that "stat folks" make any assumptions whatsoever
about people’s motivating factors, let alone that those are confined to self-interest. I know I don’t; I think most ethical/psychological reductions of motives to “self-interest” are specious. It’s not necessary to impute motivations to measure results.
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't describe our play now (or then) as listless
I would describe it as bad.
I don’t think there is a single member of the team not giving all the effort he should on the field. Who do you think is Manny-ing it?
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one is "Manny-ing it."
But everyone seems to be playing down a notch. That extra effort doesn’t seem to be there.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know it seems that way
But it’s only because they can’t hit to save their lives. It’s hard to put in “extra effort” popping out to the shortstop.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's there.
The problem is that most of the players aren’t as good as the ones they’re playing against.
by mikev on Aug 5, 2008 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's an Iron Law of Baseball
(if you’ll excuse the pomposity of that) that teams that are bad look listless, and above all that teams that aren’t hitting look listless. You can’t do much cheerleading when there’s no one on base, and when everybody’s trudging back to the dugout after failing to check their swings on balls in the dirt. Without a few positive kernels to coalesce around, baseball energy (and thus the appearance of effort) just can’t manifest itself.
by Faust on Aug 5, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, in both cases, the team was already in the process of tanking before the player in question was dumped ...
but please, show me one instance ever where a “stat folk” has argued that the only motivating factor is a person’s self-interest. Just one … ever … please.
The numbers were referencing your “holes”. The straw man is that stat folks argue that the only motivating factor is a person’s self-interest.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a Straw Man
It’s an observation, and not across the board. But it’s something that I’ve seen on the FJM site, it’s an argument that seems buried in the snide comments of Monkeyball and nevermoor. And I suspect it’s something Billy Beane believes simply because I know a little of his political views through Michael Lewis. I do think it’s something that’s buried, under the surface, in a lot of the stat guy arguments, particularly those that dismiss “intangibles” because “these guys are professionals, and they know instinctively that if they play badly, it will hurt their careers.” Ergo, other psychological reasons don’t exist.
If I’m wrong about that, then so be it. But that’s the way it looks from here.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, so ...
1.
it’s an argument that seems buried in the snide comments
is a far cry from
which is what many of the stat folks argue
2. Monkeyball is hardly a “stat folk”
3. BB is a smart guy and virtually anyone with half a brain has, at this point, discarded the idea that people are only motivated by self interest.
4. The statement:
"these guys are professionals, and they know instinctively that if they play badly, it will hurt their careers." Ergo, other psychological reasons don’t exist.
does not follow, because anyone logical would realize that rational thoughts, like knowing that their play will affect their pay does not necessarily square with emotional responses to the roller coaster of a baseball season.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 6, 2008 2:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Quick answers before this whole thread disappears
1.I can’t say how many times I’ve read the “These guys are professionals…” blah blah blah.
2. Monkey passes himself off as such, and his comments indicate that.
3. BB, according to Lewis, is a staunch libertarian. His generation of libertarians (early to mid 40s) are huge Ayn Rand fans. That’s Rand’s philosophy.
4. Well, yeah. Anyone logical. That’s why I find the entire idea absurd, and why you’re convinced it’s a straw man. What I’ll say to you is this: Rather than object so strenuously to this as a straw man argument, keep your eyes open and see whether it bubbles up in articles and comments you’re reading. Maybe I’m just reading the wrong people.
by richwol1 on Aug 6, 2008 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
2. Hunh?
There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Aug 6, 2008 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he doesn't seem to know you very well ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 6, 2008 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
so because some third party used the nebulous term “libertarian” when describing beane, he must believe people are motivated ONLY by self interest.
and because professional baseball players are professionals (fact), psychological factors aside from self-interest don’t exist.
okay, thanks for clearing that up.
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 6, 2008 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Umm ...
1. What does “these guys are professionals …” without any other context have to do with it? And, anyway, is it usually “stat folks” that say it … sounds more like something Joe Morgan would say to me …
2. No, he doesn’t.
3. I’ll take your word for it that ML thinks BB is a staunch libertarian. I’m sure you’re right, though, that the entire demographic of that political philosophy can be summed up by one author … because I know I never have any disagreements at all with mid to late 20s progressive Democrats …
4. I’m convinced its a straw man because you have not been able to offer a single tangible example of the phenomenon existing. I mean, I’ll keep my eyes open …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 6, 2008 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that makes no sense on so many different levels that it's making my head hurt
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 6, 2008 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In response to #1
Last year a White Sox fan friend of mine was raving about how awesome the acquisition of Darin Erstad was. This was around early May when the Sox had a good record and Erstad was doing ok by his standards. His argument was that his hustle, energy, grinder mentality, and whatever other nonsense attributes are given to the guy caused the team to be better.
So I asked him which White Sox players were playing better because of Erstad’s “intangibles.” I asked if Jermaine Dye was making more plays in the outfield or if somebody else was hitting better just because of the Erstad aura. And he admitted that, no, that didn’t seem to be the case. So then I said that, hey, say Jermaine Dye is inspired by Erstad’s whatever-it-is and tries extra hard in the outfield. He hustles a little more, might dive for a ball instead of letting up and playing the single, etc. I said say all that about Erstad is true: How much does it help the team? How many extra plays is Dye or somebody else making? One per week, mabye? Again, I’m giving every benefit of the doubt here because it helps my point. Say the Sox make one extra play per game, whether it’s a defensive play or a hustle play on the bases or whatever. How many extra runs do they get from it? How many extra wins? Estimate all that in your head and then consider this:
Does all that overcome the fact that Darin Erstad really, really sucks at actually playing baseball?
Laying out the argument like this actually convinced him that while Erstad might be fun to watch, he might be popular, and he might even get the guys to try a little harder, that sort of intangible is pretty tangibly not helping the team win games.
by thejd44 on Aug 5, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I "get" trading off 25-year-old players for 20-year-old players, but
we need power hitters. Not many teams win without power at 1st, 3rd, catcher, or corner OF spots. I would have rather received 1 good power-hitting prospect in each deal than get a bag of redundant “goodies” in each.
by BlueMoon on Aug 5, 2008 11:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The 2007 Boston Red Sox ...World Series Champions and all that ...
featured a 16 HR hitter, 21 HR hitter, 20 HR hitter and 11 HR hitter at their corner spots …
The Rockies matched that with 17, 25, 36 and 29 … but were aided by the thin air of Coors field—if you neutralize them it’s pretty comparable.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
The 2007 Red Sox had a .879, .843, .881, and .795 OPS from the corners (and a 1.066 from their DH).
The 2007 Rockies had a .928, .853, 1.012 and .926 from the corners.
How many guys in the Harden/Blanton trades will match any of those totals (besides Drew’s .795)? Cardenas maybe, but he might be more comparable to Pedroia’s .822 or Tulo’s .838. Murton? I doubt he ever does again. Patterson? I have my doubts. Donaldson? He’s probably the next best bet, but I want to see longer than a 20 game hot spell before I declare him Victor Martinez. Spencer? Same as Donaldson.
Again, to be fair, the Rockies’ stats will be inflated because of Coors and the A’s the opposit (I probably should have used a park-adjusted measure, OPS+? Well, too late now). Saying those teams didn’t have power though is silly.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
by vignette17 on Aug 5, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about just to say the A's don't need a lot more of it is silly?
Lacking a true leadoff hitter/base stealer or a slew of .300 hitters only accentuates the need for power as a weapon. All teams need power; the A’s especially do right now.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 5, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remember that Angels game...
a few weeks ago where Wolff was sitting in the Angels press box talking about how he wanted to build our franchise just like the Angels? Maybe he pleaded with Beane to field a team and build a farm system of multiple Chone Figgins like players.
But really, I remember a quote in Moneyball, I think it was actually by Sandy Alderson who said something like “Ideally every player in the lineup should at the very least be a HR threat.” I’m not exactly sure how you can quantify that, but I know that looking back to 2001 I think Damon was the only starter with less than double digits in HRs. In 2000, I think every position player had double digits in HRs. Much of the same in 1999, as well. It was a different era for sure, but to give this team some legitimacy for the future Beane has got to strike some magic somewhere. I noticed he wasn’t GM when they drafted many of those power hitters that came into their own in Giambi, Tejada, Chavez, or Grieve. He actually wasn’t even GM when we traded for Matt Stairs, but he at least kept him. Anyhow, point is, eventually Beane is going to have to track down a John Jaha or Matt Stairs type hitter to give the A’s some power in the lineup, even if the guy is only around for a year or two.
The nagging part of this for me is that by getting rid of Harden and Blanton they have yet to acquire that guy. The bright side is that I guess there is still plenty of time for him to find one if this team is not going to compete until 2010.
What about Barry?
"Barry who?" Forst said, and I felt like I was in the middle of a knock-knock joke.
by KMoAsFan on Aug 5, 2008 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jack Cust
..fits that description. Frank Thomas fits that description. I suspect the only reason there aren’t more is because they may not exist, or be available.
by richwol1 on Aug 5, 2008 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, CarGon could well become that guy
Carter could well become that guy
Adam Dunn (who is every bit that guy) could well become an A.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Sandy Alderson who presided over the clubhouse where every position player magically did become a homerun threat?
This is the highest-known density of gorillas that's ever been found. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Aug 5, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They were good, don't get me wrong ...
but each and every one of the Red Sox got a disproportionate share of their OPS from OBP—less so for the Rox but its still there … on either team, only Holliday and Hawpe were in the top 35 in Slg% and they were aided tremendously by their home park.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Catching is typically not a position where you look for a power hitter
In fact, any legitimate offensive production (and Suzuki is a legitimate offensive player) is bonus.
by thejd44 on Aug 5, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beane used the A's best trading chips
to aquire a couple pitching prospects, a back-up outfielder, poor-hitting catcher, a 2b/of, another second baseman (after using top draft choice on a 2b ) when the A’s best player might be a 2b in Ellis.
It is hard to see the plan here. Maybe someone out there gets it.
by BlueMoon on Aug 5, 2008 1:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
brilliant player evaluation and analysis
A+
A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05
by xbhaskarx on Aug 5, 2008 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Mark Ellis is the A's best player
This team is a 65 win team, at best.
by thejd44 on Aug 5, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hogwash
Mark Ellis is reliably 3 wins above average—he’s been that for the last four seasons. That is a really, really good player.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too many strickouts
Next!
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
stop trolling and go away
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 5, 2008 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the catcher is a pretty damn good hitter ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 5, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One thing's for certain...
Billy Beane no longer has any clue at all as to what he’s doing.
by jdub69 on Aug 5, 2008 8:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, certain
Absolutely, 100% positive. There cannot be any other explanation for what the A’s are doing except that the GM has gone insane. Not only is it the most likely scenario, the very eloquence of its logic in and of itself rules out all other possibilities as anything but figments of the imagination.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2008 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
If only jdub69 had given 110% with his post,
then he could have been 110% certain.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 5, 2008 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I read it and got my troll picture url out
But the guy has almost 600 comments. Sometimes you just have to shake your head and move on.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 5, 2008 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I take it you disagree with me.
Well, I’m sorry if I offended anyone but, the guy is completely lost. He doesn’t believe in keeping around quality offense and now he doesn’t even believe in keeping around quality pitching or defense either. I don’t want to the same old money shortage excuse. If you’re going to own a big league team (Lew Wolfe) then put some money in it and get (or keep) some prime-time players or get your big ego out of the business.
Beane has put the blandest team on the field in recent memory. At least keep a competitive team on the field while “re-building”. He’s a quitter and it has rubbed off negatively on many fans and players. He doesn’t mind losing for a couple of years and has supplied us with a supremely un-entertaining team. Somebody once said “show me a good loser and I’ll show you a loser”. Ladies and gentlemen I present to you… Billy Beane.
by jdub69 on Aug 6, 2008 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So would you be happy with the team ...
if it won between 80 and 90 games every year for the foreseeable future, made the playoffs about half the time and was consistently bounced in the first round?
Serious question, maybe you would be.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 6, 2008 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What offensive talent don't we keep around?
Swisher? Would you really undo that deal?
Dye? He chose to move on
Tejada? We thought Crosby was the guy (as did everyone else)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 7, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You posted this after my reply below so I will sum up.
The answer to the question “What offensive talent don’t we keep around?” is: Giambi, Tejada, Thomas, Dye, Pena, Byrnes, Ethier, Bradley, Guillen, Durazo, Stewart, Payton, and to a lesser extent Hernandez, Kotsay, and Scutaro.
It’s not just that we don’t keep offensive talent around. It’s that we never get anything in return for letting it go.
by jdub69 on Aug 7, 2008 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok
Giambi: We made a VERY good offer, he wanted to go to NY.
Tejada: We had Crosby, who everyone and their mother thought was the next big thing (and was the AL ROY).
Thomas: A bargain at $1M, not so much at $8M.
Dye: We made an offer about the same as Chicago’s, he made his choice
Pena: Traded (with Bonderman) for Ted Lilly, was several years away from a productive season
Byrnes: Traded for Kennedy/Witasick
Ethier: Traded for Milton Bradley
Bradley: DFA after off-field incident
Guillen: Was always a half-season rental (Durham too)
Durazo: Never quite panned out
Payton: Empty BA, BAL offered him more money than he’s worth
Stewart: Empty BA, would be an upgrade to DFA but isn’t really offensive talent.
In short: We have a lot of players passing through (hitters and pitchers) and we almost always get good return. Some on this list (Giambi) we kept because we needed him that season and tried to re-sign unsuccessfully. As far as “we never get anything in return” Sweeney/Gio/DLS are the newest members of the A’s who beg to differ.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 7, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look at that list.
The fact is that Beane let All of them go for no return. Every one of them.
Giambi: offered to stay and play for less. Beane stalled, made no real effort and he bolted.
Tejada: offered to stay and play for less. Beane told him during the season – we won’t be making you any offer.
Thomas: Should’ve paid him the $8M. I’m not lookng for a “bargain”. If a billionaire isn’t willing to pay players what they’re worth the get outta here.
Byrnes: Traded for Kennedy/Witasick. That qualifies for no return.
Ethier: Traded for Milton Bradley, and then released Bradley after great post-season for no return less than a year later.
Bradley: DFA after off-field incident. No return.
Guillen: Was always a half-season rental. Should’ve made an effort to keep him.
Durazo: Never quite panned out. Batted over .320 his last season with the A’s. Beane hates players that lead the team in batting average (see below). Let go for no return.
Payton: Led the team in batting average, then let go for no return.
Stewart: Led the team in batting average, then let go for no return.
I also previously mentioned that the Haren trade and Swisher trade were ok because we got good returns for those – Sweeney, Gonzalez, etc. so your argument falls short there as well.
by jdub69 on Aug 7, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love the cherrypicking
It’s not just that we don’t keep offensive talent around. It’s that we never get anything in return for letting it go.
We got fantastic returns for swisher, therefore your “never” is flat out wrong.
Giambi made no such offer. He was strictly mercenary, as proven when Beane did agree to his no-trade clause and he still bolted.
Kennedy was a very useful arm for several years, Witasick sucked. That’s not no return (especially considering how overrated Byrnes is). Ethier netted us Bradley, who was important in a post-season run. That’s not no return either.
As far as our decisions not to re-sign, Payton/Stewart are not good corner outfielders. Both are empty batting average (think Sweeney, but without any potential for improvement). Guillen would not have been an asset going forward. Frank Thomas wouldn’t just have been “not a bargain” but “a disastrous signing.” If you want proof, ask the Jays if they’re happy with that contract. As far as Durazo, you’re wrong. He hit .237 in 41 games in 2005 after that great 2004, and has failed to make a MLB team’s roster since. He failed to pan out.
The only one that hurts is Tejada, because we would have been better with him (and we could – as you note – have signed him). Unfortunately, we had to choose between him and Chavez. We got a bad outcome from the decision, but the decision making process was right.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 7, 2008 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It wasn't cherry picking, it was an "in addition to".
I’ll concede “never” was to strong. How about 96 times out of 100 we get no return – that would be more accurate.
Giambi did indeed make an offer during the season to get a contract extension at a reduced rate – so, you’re wrong about that.
Kennedy being very useful is a bit of a stretch. You’re wrong there as well.
Ethier for Bradley would’ve been a good return but, as previously stated, Beane then let go of Bradley the next year for no return. Therefore, Ethier equals almost zero return. We surely don’t have anything to show for him this year.
The empty batting average theory of yours holds no credence and doesn’t even deserve a rebuttle.
You’re also grossly wrong when you say “Guillen would not have been an asset going forward. Frank Thomas wouldn’t just have been ‘not a bargain but "a disastrous signing."
You’re “cherry picking” of Durazo is correct. You got me on a technicality but ultimately the same “no return” result exists. I should’ve stated that in his last full season with the A’s he led the team in hitting and then was let go after he was injured the next season – again for no return.
At least you agree losing Tejada hurts.
Your getting off point here. The original statement was that “Beane doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing” and “He doesn’t believe in keeping around quality offense and now he doesn’t even believe in keeping around quality pitching or defense either”. And that statement still holds true no matter how you paint it.
It has clearly been shown here that he gets rid of players before they hit their prime because the A’s ownership is too cheap to pay the players what their worth. If your going to own a big league team then treat it like your running a big league team. I have no sympathy for billionaires who cry poor and want to move the team to Fremont with a pathetic (shoot for the stars here guys) 32,000 seat stadium/shopping mall idea.
To sum up. Keep the star players, and, as a last resort trade them for equal or greater value. Something Beane hasn’t done with any regularity.
by jdub69 on Aug 7, 2008 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let me get this straight
Beane “doesn’t believe in keeping around quality offense” because when we have had special offensive talent (Giambi/Dye/Tejada/Chavez) he has made a serious attempt to keep each of them except Tejada – and that was because he chose Chavez.
You can’t seriously blame Beane for getting no return on Durazo, since he imploded after one good year (and we KEPT him after that good year).
You also can’t seriously say there was no return for Ethier, since Bradley was a key in the 2006 ALCS run.
As far as Frank Thomas, he was good – but by no means special last year and has missed more than half the season this year while posting slightly above average numbers when plaing. Signing him to a big contract would have been a disaster.
If you don’t understand empty batting average, I think I’m done arguing player evaluation with you. Jay Payton, for example, hit .296 with us. That’s nice, but his OPS/SLG was .325/.418 which is ugly. He almost never walked (22), and almost never got an XBH (125 singles, 32 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR). That gives him an OPS+ of 94 (it’s been in the 70s since that season) and makes him an absolutely AWFUL corner outfielder even though he almost hit .300.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 8, 2008 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beane should've made a real attempt...
to keep Giambi, Dye, and Tejada. Not some phony half-assed attempt.
Durazo would’ve been better than Barton to this day.
Ethier will be around for many more quality years as will Bradley and we have neither.
Thomas was worth the 8 million we could’ve gotten for last year and that is not a big contract.
Payton, Durazo, and Stewart led the team in batting average and Beane got rid of them. None of them were great but leading the team in batting average is a death sentence when Bene is your GM – that’s all I’m saying about that.
Beane has lost it.
by jdub69 on Aug 12, 2008 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, so ...
Giambi has been a terrible return for the price for the Yankees … remember when they were trying to send him to the minors?
It appears that BB had the money to choose one out of Chavvy and Miggie ... clearly he would have been better off going the other way - but given what he knew - Miggie’s likely age and possible steroid use as well as BoCro coming up behind him, as well as the fact that Chavvy was better than Miggie at the time the decision had to be made, it’s hard to fault him for that choice, despite the way it worked out.
Eric Byrnes would not be an upgrade on any either Cust or Sweeney …
Neither would Andre Ethier ... though we did get a pretty significant return for him.
Clearly Milton Bradley leaving was not a purely baseball decision. There’s also a huge question of whether he would be performing this way in Oakland. It seems to me that he has a tendency to have a good, healthy first season in every new city …
With Jermain Dye coming back from injury and Eric Byrnes starting to come into his own, there wasn’t room for Guillen. I think Anaheim’s experience with him suggests that non baseball concerns would have likely made keeping him untenable, as it was with Bradley.
Erubiel Durazo has not played in the Majors since we let him go because he was very seriously injured, the year AFTER he batter .320. There was no chance of getting a return for him, especially since he was a free agent and suffered a career ending injury.
Jay Payton 1.) sucked and 2.) was a free agent who was badly over paid to continue to suck for Baltimore. He would not be an upgrade on this team.
Shannon Stewart 1. sucked, 2.) was a free agent and 3.) wasn’t good enough to get a Major League contract. He would not be an upgrade on this team.
The Bradley issue is different because it was not based on baseball concerns. We don’t really know what was happening behind the scenes, so it’s hard to evaluate it.
Even with the benefit of hindsight, the only player that we should have kept was Tejada and even there it is hard to criticize the process that led to that decision.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 7, 2008 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Giambi stayed in Oakland...
he would’ve been way better than anyone we’ve had since.
Eric Byrnes had a huge year and would’ve been better year last season in Oakland than Stewart – we could’ve used him last year and this year in place of Emil Brown.
There was room for Guillen when he was let go. 4 or 5 good outfielders should be the norm.
I understand the Durazo injury thing but we could’ve given him a shot last year after a solid spring and maybe wouldn’t ave been any worse than what we currently ave in Barton. Although I do think Barton may become a good player eventually.
The point with Jay Payton, Shannon Stewart, and Durazo, whatever your opinion of them is that if you lead the eam in batting average it is a death sentence for you with Beane as GM.
Bradley should’ve been kept – he is an all-star player this year and was good when he was let go for nothing.
We should’ve kept Tejada, Giambi, Dye, Thomas, Bradley, Byrnes, Guillen, Pena, Scutaro, and probably others too.
by jdub69 on Aug 12, 2008 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No man,
... I don’t care for mediocrity, not sure where you got that? I would be happy if we put a team on the field that had a chance to win the World Series this year, and, every year in the foreseeable future. I’m not happy that we’re now the worst team in the league and I’m not happy if we make it to the first round of the playoffs and get consistently bounced… been there, done that. I want to win it all, now, and every year after it.
I couldn’t be more serious!
We should’ve got Manny for Gaudin and Cust. That would’ve been “genius”. The Dodgers gave up far less to get him. Other moves like that as needed would be nice too! I don’t like consistently giving up, and/or, throwing away players for some fictional future that has been promised for years now.
You have to have all-stars on the field, it gives everyone confidence knowing that there is equal (or better) talent on your team and players raise their game because of it and play their key roles. Harden was the kind of impressive player that makes the rest of the team believe in itself and raise the level of their performance. Just as Thomas was that kind of player in 2006.
I don’t have to mention the tens of other star players that Beane let go for nothing, do I (well just a few: Giambi, Tejada, Hudson, Thomas, and Dye. Plus, to a lesser extent, Ethier, Bradley, Guillen, Durazo, Stewart, Payton, Kotsay, Scutaro, and on and on)? I leave Zito and Loaiza off the list for obvious reasons plus Damon and Rogers because they’re pussies who didn’t want to play in Oakland.
I liked the Haren trade because we only gave up one pitcher and got a good return and still had pitching depth (which didn’t last long once Beane went crazy). Same goes with the Swisher trade (good return).
So, to review. I want to develop AND KEEP great players and trade for super-stars as needed to win the world series every year. DEAD SERIOUS.
by jdub69 on Aug 6, 2008 11:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You know there's a team that's a perennial world series contender
Oh, wait, no there isn’t.
You may be DEAD SERIOUS, but what you want is not possible (even for well-run teams with $200M payrolls)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 7, 2008 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not true. You only have to look right here in Oakland to find perennial world series contenders.
Oakland from 1971 thru 1975 and Oakland from 1988 thru 1992. Great teams made great runs and won it all 4 of those years. Also, more recently, see Yankees, Red Sox and Braves who seem to challenge often.
by jdub69 on Aug 7, 2008 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
4 years is "perrenial"?
In this case we just finished being perennial WS contenders from 2000-2006, so you should be happy. We’ll be back a lot sooner than 2019 too, which is nice.
Adding Manny to this team wouldn’t have put us in contention anyway.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 7, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your math is very wrong. More like ten years (ok nine - can't count 1991).
Contenders doesn’t mean winners. I’m sure you know that. I’m happy about 2000 to 2006 but not satisfied because we were close and could’ve made a trade or two in a few of those seasons to actually get to the world series.
Just admit that Billy Beane has done nothing to earn the monicker of “Genius”. You have to actually win to earn that title. Plus he’s meddlesome and his baseball philosiphies are ridiculous. Station to station ball, don’t steal or hit and run, get walks and wait for the homerun, these are not the way to win in this league.
Manny would’ve been a big step in the right direction but that wasn’t the point of that original statement now was it.
by jdub69 on Aug 7, 2008 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think $200m + smart management ...
is going to keep Boston very good for a very long time …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 7, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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