A Very Special Staturday: Fiscal sensibility and winning more games
by grover on Aug 30, 2008 12:00 AM PDT
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PrintTalent wins baseball games.
Talent costs money.
The A’s finished last season 10 games under .500 because of a lack of talent, not funding. They spent over $79 million on player salaries alone and then they spent another $3.9 million on bonuses for their 2007 draft class. That’s a minimum $83 million invested directly into the on-field talent, factor in the salaries of the minor league minions and the A’s owners spent over $85 million just to get the guys on the various rosters to show up. The results were completely unacceptable. The big league team finished 76-86 and the farm system ranked as one of the five worst in baseball.
Currently, the A’s are 10 games under .500 (again) and have one of the top three farm systems in baseball. They did this by trading proven big league talent for minor league prospects and re-directing funds towards acquiring highly rated amateur talent. The 2008 Opening Day payroll stood at just under $48 million and the in-season trades of Blanton, Harden and Gaudin shaved about $4.3 million from that original figure. Factor in the April signing of Frank Thomas and the A’s have dedicated roughly $44 million towards the major league payroll, a drop of $35 million from last year yet the on-field results (as of Friday afternoon) are identical.
Trades alone were not what revitalized the farm system, a system which is expected to feed talent to the big league club and grow a new dynasty in the Oakland/Fremont area. This year the A’s spent more then $6.1 million in signing bonuses for their 2008 draft class, including over-slot paydays to seventh round pick RHP Brett Hunter ($1.1 million) tenth round pick Rashun Dixon ($600K) and twenty-eighth round pick Dusty Coleman ($675K). This was huge, and for the A’s, practically unheard of. Signability issues caused these three to fall lower in the draft then their natural talents warranted and the A’s essentially bought themselves a supplimental first and two mid-second round picks that they didn’t have when the draft started. To get a bit better perspective on this, consider that the A’s spent $600,000 MORE in the 2008 draft then they spent on signing bonuses in the 2007 and 2006 drafts combined! On the international front, the A’s made headlines by giving a record $4.25 million bonus to Dominican RHP Michael Inoa; a player the A’s consider a once-in-a-decade prospect. They also signed 5 players out of
All told, the A’s spent $10.5 – $11 million on amateur talent this season. That’s roughly equivalent to what they spent the last three seasons COMBINED.
So what’s next?
The purpose of this rebuild is to make the
The A’s are at an interesting transition point. Over the next two seasons there will only be four critical players eligible for arbitration. (I figure guys like Bowen and Denorfia will go the way of Marco Scutaro before they get expensive.) Of those four players, Duke is currently a year away from free agency and Casilla isn’t eligible until after next season while Street and Cust are both scheduled to get raises the next two years. Matt Murton will also be eligible for arbitration by 2010 but who knows how important he’s going to be? The A’s also owe Crosby and Chavez $16.5 million next year, with Chavez looking at another $12 million in 2010 and a team controlled option at $12.5 million or a $3 million buy-out in 2011. The rest of the roster (as currently constructed) will make less then $450K a head annual through the 2010 season! I’m not the best at trying to determine arbitration figures and the like, but figuring on the high side I have the A’s 2009 payroll at approximately $39 million. I see a golden opportunity to pursue a significant free agent contract even after factoring in the $8 million we’ve set aside to sign amateur talent.
It’s rare that the A’s have the budgetary flexibility to carry two 8-figure contracts but that window will exist through the 2010 season. After that, the young players we’ve seen the last two seasons will be looking for hefty raises and the A’s need to be able to pay them. Fortunately, 2011 is probably going to be Chavez’s walk year so there shouldn’t be a problem. The line-up has several holes in it and adding an impact bat would be a major step in the right direction. Keep in mind though, there isn’t a single bat scheduled to hit the free agent market in the next two off-seasons that could “fix” the A’s putrid offense. Nor can the A’s afford to sign two free agent bats, because it would hinder the team’s ability to retain the players it develops over the next couple years. Fortunately there are eight hitters scheduled to hit free agency in the next two off-seasons who represent a serious improvement over the bats currently in place. The A’s should be able to land one of them if they put out the effort.
Some may argue that going after expensive free agents isn't the way the A's do business. That's been true in the past, but when was the last time Beane dropped $4 million on a 16 year-old Dominican pitcher? The way things were done before no longer work and if you can't adapt you are going to wither and die. The A's have the depth to pull off a major trade that could help the big league roster, in fact there's a plan I'm working on right now that could represent a significant upgrade to the line-up. Having the prospects to pull off such a deal is certainly an asset, but being liquid and having the cash available to add to the talent level of the entire organization is also an asset and one the Beane needs to exploit in the next two off-seasons.
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If you're going to state that there are as many as 8 good FA options in the next 2 years
you should list em-just run their names off for the discussion.
facepalm.jpg
I want to see the list, too
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Aug 30, 2008 1:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I suspect, though, that grover wanted to avoid the debate...
over the specific and focus us on his main point, which is certainly a legitimate one… the A’s have the budget flexibility to add a good free agent bat next year. But, I think he answered his own question… one FA bat won’t fix what’s broke. Unless the A’s sign two, there’s really no point.
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Aug 30, 2008 1:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Incorrect
The A’s can’t afford to sign 2 impact bats through FA, this much is true.
But the A’s do have the depth in the farm system to trade for a good bat that’s still 3 years away from FA.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I would rephrase this
The A’s can’t afford to sign 2 impact bats if their contracts will run beyond 2010.
If they can get Giambi on a 2-year deal, they would be able to afford that. Note, I’m not saying it is or isn’t a good idea, just that making the signing would not force the team to explicitly take economies from the amateur budget.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
That would be the half-assed approach
I feel like I’ve got enough stuff to talk about re: the free agents to warrant a seperate diary. I’m even going to put a poll in the diary!
The monster at the end of this blog.
What is the point in adding bats for 2009??
The die has been cast, the team can’t win the World Series next year either (using the logic that resulted in blowing up the team a year before it was really necessary) so why waste the money?? The pitching starting 2009 will be worse than starting 2008…might as well get even younger….
Do you think the pitching will be ready in 2010?
Let’s assume that the A’s will have a good pitching staff in 2010, wouldn’t it be nice if they could have some offensive support?
I’m advocating going after bats that could be here as early as 2009 but will still be with the A’s in 2010, 2011, 2012 and beyond.
The monster at the end of this blog.
2010
may be a different story…i just don’t think that this off season is the time to worry about adding offense unless it is a proven young player that will also be around for 2010 and beyond. if there is another Josh Hamilton or Carlos Quentin out there…then yes, grab them and take a chance. if it is an expensive older player….no way, those guys are are not that tough to find if you are willing to spend what it takes.
There are elite hitters in baseball
You don’t sign an elite hitter to a 1-year contract unless there are extenuating circumstances involved. Of the guys I’m looking at, there may be one who’d qualify for that exemption and even he is probably going to get a minimum 3 year guarantee.
Ironically, neither Josh Hamilton or Carlos Quentin cost much to acquire. They were unproven players with injury filled track records who suddenly blossomed.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I wouldn't consider Edinson Volquez "not much" re: Hamilton
Unless, of course, you’re talking about his being aquired via Rule 5.
In that case, Johan Santana didn’t cost much to aquire either :D
Hamilton & Quenton...
…are exactly the kind of “up-side” players that Beane likes to find, and is usually very good at finding, but neither really fits the ‘established’ category that we’re talking about here.
Well, now they would, but early this spring they wouldn’t have.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
He's talking about the same guy, circa six months ago
Quentin was a buy-low guy at the time. Now Kenny Williams looks like a genius.
As long as we’re on poker analogies… is KW the Mike Caro of GMs? The “Mad Genius of Baseball”?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Well, he's won some
and lost some. I certainly think the Quentin trade was a jewel and I think the Swisher trade look like Beane bluffed him out of the pot with shit cards.
The Swisher trade?
Look at Swisher’s peripherals.
His BABIP is 256. His LD rate is 21.5, a career high. His HR / flyball rate is a solid 14.5, better than that of 2007, worse than that of 2006. His infield fly rate is around the levels of the previous 2 seasons. His groundball rate is at career levels. His K / BB rates are also around career levels.
Sure, it is possible that Swisher’s true talent BABIP is 256, even though he is hitting the ball (fairly) hard. Alternatively, that low BABIP is mostly flukish, and Swisher will rebound next season.
Also, Swisher has been acceptable defensively in CF this season.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Yeah, Swisher will be fine next year
That’s the rare trade where both teams will have to wait for the long haul to see if it really benefited them or not.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Yes, Quentin...
…the ‘i’ and the ‘o’ are next to each other on the keyboard. It was a typo.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
I wouldn't advocate signing too many one-year contracts for next year...
but it should be fairly obvious that most impact players are not going to sign for one year. The Tigers signed Pudge Rodriguez in 2004; it didn’t pay off until 2006.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Chavez's walk year?
I’m hoping he retires before that.
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
Bite your tounge!
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
lol... actually, I hope he comes back strong next year...
and, hits 35 HR’s and 115 RBI and wins the gold glove at 3rd base. Unlike Nico, I actually want to see Barton at 1st base next year. But, that’s the ultimate A’s optimist in me.
The realist says Chavez probably starts at 1st and Barton is in AAA or traded away for “the next big thing.”
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Aug 30, 2008 1:40 AM PDT up reply actions
I know Chavez has ben pretty bad the past 2-3 years.
But I still believe in him. He was soo good for 4 years. I really believe injuries have sapped him of the last 2-3 years. If he is healthy he will play GG 3rb base, while hitting for an 800+ ops.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
hey, Kotsay's playing CF for the Red Sox...
so, I will discount no possibility. Since I’m certain that Rickey Henderson could bat for a higher average than 95% of the players on this team, I wouldn’t even discount seeing him in the lineup next year.
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
by FoolshGame22 on Aug 30, 2008 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I called for Chavez to retire in 2005
I think my post has been eaten up by the Internet, but at the time I got a tremendous amount of grief from knee-jerk A’s fans who couldn’t see the writing on the wall with this guy. I think King Nico was one of those fans. Chavez will go down as one of the biggest disappointments in A’s history, particularly because it represents NOT signing Hudson or Tejada. The seats are empty in the Coliseum because there is no player continuity and because we have an ownership that has made it clear to everyone that they can’t wait to leave Oakland. Not a recipe for financial success. Beane used to always say: it’s wins that bring attendance. But he’s been proven wrong. It’s not that simple.
I stayed in a flop once when I was drunk and had a 7-2 offsuit
and the flop was 7-2-2.
I am really good at poker.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Yeah, I could see you playing with my buddies
at our regular game……….and then being kicked to the curb after that kind of stunt….(thud!)
;>}
Didn't Chavez hit 2 homers and have over 70 RBI with an over .780 OPS.
Was the writing in invisible ink?
by theblackpearl on Aug 30, 2008 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions
As Beane says
Better to get rid of a player a year early than a year late. Chavez has been spiraling downhill even with barely passable seasons in 06 and 7. But because everyone on the team looks to him as the savior and he can’t match expectations, his underperformance is magnified. We would have been better without him so we could focus on developing real team leaders and finding a solution for third base.
Well that would have been a huge dud of a move ...
We’re all disappointed with the way Chavvy has turned out — but he was a good player in 2006 and 2007, even if not as good as we would have liked.
He’s a disappointment, yes — but when he’s been on the field, he has been an asset. I’ll predict here and now, that he will be an above average player for the balance of his contract with t he A’s. Worth the money he’s paid? I’m not going that far out on the limb. But better than average. Yep.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I still believe if Barton and Buck played lile they can
we would been a crap ton better. A full year of Chavez would help a crap ton too.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
I think I'm in the cvdoug camp on this one...
the pitching is going to be too green next year to contend. So, why go out and spend a lot of money on free agent bats? Sure, if Billy can add a decent veteran bat or two during the offseason, at a reasonable price, go for it. I’m actually pretty sure he will.
But, why spend big money for 2009, a year the A’s are not going to be ready to contend?
Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb
RE: "Spending money is not the same thing as acquiring talent."
You need to tell that to the Giants.
Oh come on
They needed that money for Michael Tucker.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
He spent it all
playing poker with me and my buddies at The Acme Chophouse! Really good guy…….not so good with the cards.
I don't see any harm in signing a bat for 2 or 3 seasons
This off season is the time to do it, so that contract comes off the books as arbitration years hit for some of the young guys. 2009 might be a long shot, but the A’s should consider 2010 and 2011 contention as well because they won’t get better than a high risk player on a cheap/short term deal when payroll escalates.
The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.
Signing the type of hitter I'm talking about
will probably involve a 5 year deal at minimum.
The monster at the end of this blog.
A Free Agent bat would not be for 2009 only. It would likely be a four to six year deal or longer.
So if the A’s plan to contend during those five or six years and a hitter they want becomes available they’d be well served to try to sign him. In my order of preference:
1) Manny Ramirez, Ages 37-41 — he’s an all-time great and he’s likely to only want 4-5 years, not six or seven. He’s’ played on four pennant winners. Also he’s right-handed and works like hell at his hitting. 5 yrs/$100M
2) Adam Dunn (Ages 29-34) — Two Custs are better than one. I’d go as high as 6 yrs/$100M. Can sort of play LF and 1B and is as good a hitter as….
3) Mark Teixeira (Ages 29-36) — the best player on the market this winter, but likely to be way overpriced, as the best players in a weak class often are. I’m guessing 8 yrs/$160M. I wouldn’t do it, but he may be worth that to someone. I’m assuming he’s limited to 1B and can’t play 3B anymore.
I wouldn’t touch Jason Bay (Ages 31-36), Matt Holliday (Ages 30-35) or Pat Burrell (Ages 32-37) with a ten foot pole. Non superstars signed during their decline years are a horrible bet.
Bob Abreu, Carlos Delgado and Jason Giambi aren’t going to be much help in 2010-14, so they’re likely more valuable to a 2009 contender. I doubt Chipper Jones or Vladimir Guerrero are going anywhere.
Since the A’s probably don’t share my love for Manny, the best bet to me would be Dunn.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
Delgado probably won't be an FA.
Mets have a team option: if they pick it up, they pay him $16M, if they don’t they pay him $4M as a buyout.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Don't steal the thunder from my next diary man!!!
But correct in the essentials.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Why do you think Teixeira and Dunn are a better deal than Holliday?
He and Tex are the same age, same career OPS+, Holliday has more defensive value. Dunn is a DH, has a lower career OPS+, and players with his skill set are thought to be more prone to decline. Is the 1 year later that big of a deal?
The A's colors are green and gold.
He's a FA a year later than Teixeira and he'd be a lot more expensive than Dunn.
But you’re right. They’re not that different.
[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 1, 2008 1:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Who pays minor leaguers?
I always assumed that guys on minor league contracts got a check from the minor league team and not the parent club (this could be different for split contract guys).
If minor league teams only have to pay for cost of running a park and their own staff, many of them must be ridiculously profitable.
by thejd44 on Aug 30, 2008 5:24 AM PDT reply actions
The parent club pays the players' salaries.
And yes, many of them are ridiculously profitable.
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
Note To Billy Beane
You were taken in the Hudson trade. Cruz, Charles Thomas and Dan Meyer are not quality players. Time to admit Meyer is a bust and leave him off the major league roster. We’ve seen all he has and it ain’t good enough, even for this squad of less than’s.
Morada Mudshark
by Morada Mudshark on Aug 30, 2008 6:41 AM PDT reply actions
Not true
Juan Cruz is a good pitcher. He never should have been traded for Halsey (and that’s not just hindsight).
Root for the Giants? Not even if they're playing al-Qaeda!
Well, Halsey and Meyer both did get hurt though
I don’t think you can blame Beane for not having the foresight to see that.
"Innings eater? Depends on whether you want delicious innings or burnt, moldy innings. Kirk Saarloos is the Hot Pockets of inning eaters." - Gallagher's Watermelons
by notsellingjeans on Aug 30, 2008 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions
He was league average in 2006
So either 50% of the league “sucks”, or…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Dan Meyer was the #1 left handed pitching prospect in baseball.
- Braves prospect before he was traded. #1 Athletics prospect when he was picked up.
Incorrect
Meyer was never the #1 prospect for either the Braves or the A’s.
The monster at the end of this blog.
There are a half dozen ways I could reply to this...
all of them make me sound like an asshole.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Ok...
some people thought to be expert, e.g. Sickels, had him at #1 for the A’s, so how is that “incorrect”? Is there a fact of the matter that I’m not aware of about these rankings?
The A's colors are green and gold.
Sickels
I don’t remember Sickels ever doing a 1-2-3 listing for his prospects. BA did/does and Meyer was never the #1 guy for either team according to them. So I was leaning towards BA’s slant on things.
The monster at the end of this blog.
He does ...
but I’m too lazy to look it up and verify …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
"Braveity is the essence of wit"
I like honesty better than almost any other trait in a person……even if you do come off sounding like an asshole.
Cheers!
what does this have to do with the topic, really?
that trade was almost 4 years ago. hudson was hurt. hudson is hurt now, for a long time. he was my favorite too, but let it go.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
I can't believe Schott didn't shell out for Tejada!!!
;-)
by Tyler Bleszinski on Aug 30, 2008 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions
:'(
haha
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Might have to raise draft signing budget
With the A’s record being bad this year they will be drafting higher in the first round and some of the early draft signs this year went in the 6 mil area. 8 mil may not be enough.
$20MM for the draft!
Strasberg and Boras announce before the draft that he won’t sign for less than a $16MM bonus, and he falls all the way to the A’s at pick No. 4-5.
These are the irrational hopes I carry.
"Innings eater? Depends on whether you want delicious innings or burnt, moldy innings. Kirk Saarloos is the Hot Pockets of inning eaters." - Gallagher's Watermelons
by notsellingjeans on Aug 30, 2008 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions
And there's my other irrational hope along the same topic of this diary...
That payroll remains right around $40-60 million for the next 3+ years, and then jumps all the way to $100MM in a hurry when
a.) all the A’s wonderful young players are reaching the later stages of arbitration
b.) 26-year-old Justin Upton signs a massive FA deal with us after the 2013 season
c.) We debut a shiny new stadium.
(Lew and Billy, I know you’re reading this. Don’t let me down).
"Innings eater? Depends on whether you want delicious innings or burnt, moldy innings. Kirk Saarloos is the Hot Pockets of inning eaters." - Gallagher's Watermelons
by notsellingjeans on Aug 30, 2008 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions
That's reaching a point at which even I would be willing to pass on him
and I’m about the biggest advocate of over-slot signings that there is here.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Right now the A's are slotted at #9
The 2008 estimated slot at #9 was $2.15 million. Figure 10% inflation, call it a $2.4 million slot bonus next year. That’s only $500K more then the A’s spent this year on Weeks.
Basically all I did was take the $11 million the A’s spent this year and subtracted most of the $4.25 million they spent on Inoa.
The monster at the end of this blog.
#9 and falling?
We could fairly realistically get as low as 5 or 6 … which is getting to the super premium prospects who think they deserve #1 money, despite being drafted #5 …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Enough with the negative waves!
Have someone close to you ram a ray of sunshine up your ass post-haste!
The monster at the end of this blog.
While I am contractually obligated to needle you about saying "we",
I do commend you for using it in a situation where you are describing the team’s suckitude, in contrast to the usual pattern of “we” winning and “they” losing…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
This is off-topic, but newsworthy:
Rotoworld is reporting that Gallagher will come off the DL as soon as he’s eligible on Sept. 5th. That probably means he’ll start that night, next Friday.
With the team’s off day on Monday, that probably means we’ve seen Meyer’s last start, and the other four lefties pitching on normal rest and Gallagher taking Meyer’s place Friday night.
"Innings eater? Depends on whether you want delicious innings or burnt, moldy innings. Kirk Saarloos is the Hot Pockets of inning eaters." - Gallagher's Watermelons
by notsellingjeans on Aug 30, 2008 8:33 AM PDT reply actions
Thank God!
Man, Dan Meyer turned out to be a complete bust. Last night’s performance (or lack thereof) was a total trainwreck!
Oh well, can’t say the A’s didn’t give him ample opportunities to win a roster spot. It’s just really disappointing when you look at it. Basically, the A’s got absolutley nothing for Huddy.
Nothing!
Pretty much agree.
I just don’t see Meyer going anywhere, not even as a good reliever, in the majors. Unless he suddenly comes up with some miracuolous rebound, I’ll be disappointed if he has a spot on the 40-man roster next year.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
Grover, I'm projecting the FA class of 2030...
and I see the A’s throwing down $100 million on your son to shore up the left side of the infield (which I’m just naturally assuming will be barren).
He’s 5 now, right? The math works. He’ll be in line for a big payday. Dad can retire early.
"Innings eater? Depends on whether you want delicious innings or burnt, moldy innings. Kirk Saarloos is the Hot Pockets of inning eaters." - Gallagher's Watermelons
by notsellingjeans on Aug 30, 2008 8:38 AM PDT reply actions
So much for looking at lineage ...
as a sign of future success …
; )
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I'd be all for a splashy free agent signee this off-season or next...
even if the A’s aren’t expecting to contend until 2010 or 2011 if en elite-level hitter in the prime of his career could be locked up for the foreseeable future. However, looking at the free agent lists, there doesn’t seem to be anyone really worth investing in…I’d love to see your “Gang of 8” grover.
Tex might be the closest thing, but we all know him and Boras are not going to settle for Oakland, ditto Manny and his camp.
I’m convinced that the “elite” hitter that we’re all clamoring for will have to be acquired via trade or via the draft, a la Tampa Bay and Evan Longoria.
All that said, I don’t think the A’s should shy away from signing short-term free agents. Some might say that signing say, Jason Giambi for one or two years should he become a free agent this winter, would be a waste of money and would “block” prospects from developing…I say, his presence in the lineup (and in the clubhouse) and his proven ability to get on base and hit for power would do nothing but good for the young team.
I’d even consider lesser “flawed” players like Nomar or Kevin Millar if they’d come really cheap, just to get some sort of veteran into the lineup that can be penciled in for at least a .400 slugging percentage, since most of the “regulars” on this team are having trouble even hitting that benchmark…
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
The list will probably come Sunday
I’m not sure I want to pay the price (in prospects) to trade for an elite hitter.
However, I have my eye on a good hitter with a very good glove that would help a ton.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Eric Chav... wait, no, that doesn't work.
They could do some kind of trade-and-extend with Adrian Beltre, he’s basically a non-injured version of Chavvy.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Just getting Beltre out of Seattle would probably add a win a year for the A's...
since he absolutely rakes against A’s pitching. But I’m not a big fan of him, especially if the A’s were to extend him beyond 2009. Guy has only topped an .800 OPS three times in his career, and one of those was in his infamous walk year out of Los Angeles. Good defender, but if the team is going to hand out the coin for someone, I’d rather have Holliday or even Bay.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
Hm, his Marcel is only about .760...
You may have a point here.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Basically Eric Chavez 05-07, except, presumably, healthier ...
that’s a good player …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
Right now, he's fine
4 years from now, I’m thinking he’ll be over the hill.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
He might be able to be had for a 3 year deal ...
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
No, after 2009.
So that’s another year of wear and tear and another season of declining offensive production. If Seattle is willing to essentially give him away for salary relief (which they have shown no interest in doing with any of their players) then I think he’d be a good pickup for next season only. I would not advise the A’s to pursue him after 2009. There should be much better alternatives available for long-term 3rd base options between now and 2010.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
DId they ever ditch Washburn?
I couldn’t believe that someone (New York, if I recall) was offering to actually give them something in return for him, and they weren’t jumping out of their chairs to give him away… but, well, that’s Seattle for you.
I’m not seeing a lot on the free agent market for 3B, though, I have to say… I mean, Chone Figgins is probably the best guy on the lists for the next 2 years, and he’s not even really a third baseman. Well, no, I guess Chipper Jones is “available.” But who knows if he’ll ever actually hit the market, or indeed if he’ll still be playing actively in 2010. Hate to say it, but Jeff Baisley might well be the team’s best option at this point, assuming Chavez isn’t really able to play third anymore.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
how have the A's free agent signings fared
particularly the more expensive ones? (I’m thinking of Piazza and Loaiza as examples.)
How have their trades of prospects for “win now” players fared? (Ethier for Bradley comes to mind.) That one looked good for 2006 (the second half plus the postseason).
Great diary and analysis, Grover.
Basically, you were writing what I was thinking in regards to signing one free agent hitter and then trading for another. I don’t see why the A’s can’t contend in 09’. If the rotation next year includes a a refreshed and healthy Duke, same with Gallagher, Smith, a more poised Gio, and either Eveland/Braden or maybe even a mid-season call up for James Simmons/ and the bullpen is Braden/Eveland, Ziggy, Blevins, Devine, Street, Casilla, Brown…then why would the pitching not be good enough?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not expecting miracles from this bunch but I have seen good things from all of these guys this year and lived with the bumps and bruises. There is no reason to think that that they won’t be even better next year, especially Gallagher and Gio. But the offense really needs a couple of potent bats to help stimulate the lineup. And if the club has a healthy Chavvy, Sweeney, Buck etc.. and the rest of the youngens continue to grow into solid big leaguers why would this club not be able to contend in 09’?
That’s all I’m saying……….glass half full thing.
I can appreciate a glass half full perspective
The “WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE… FOR REAL THIS TIME!!!” crowd has started to grow wearisome.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I hope you don't think that I'm among the "WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE… FOR REAL THIS TIME!!!" crowd ...
I believe in losing big and winning big. Playing .500 ball is a waste of money and opportunity cost in terms of draft picks …
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
I've slowly come around to this line of thinking, also.
The pitching and defense of the 2009 team should be pretty solid. Not dominant, but like you said, if Duke is healthy and not traded, he’s a legit top-rotation type guy, although kind of fringy at that. But with his bulldog mentality, he’ll do. Smith has shown that he can get hitters out more often than not, Braden has shown the ability to make the adjustments necessary to get outs, Eveland looks like a new man with his new delivery, and Gallagher and Gio both have great stuff that only need more experience and minor tweaking to really blossom. It’s not a rock-solid rotation, but it has the potential to be average-above average.
The 2009 bullpen could be dominant, especially if Street is not traded, with him, Devine, Ziggy and Blevins sharing late-inning duties and Brown, Casilla and even Josh Outman handling middle relief. That’s a strong, young, cheap group. We know the fielders can catch the ball and make most of the plays.
The offense has some potential. Suzuki is a little better than average at his position, Cargon was also before the all-star break and Sweeney can collect multi-hits games fairly regularly and provide a spark at the top of the order. Aaron Cunningham should be ready to roll with the big team to start the season and it seems like he’ll bring a little bit of everything to the 2nd spot in the lineup. The wild cards will be Barton, Chavez, Buck and whomever plays second. If Barton/Buck and Chavez both rebound and get healthy and put up even .780OPs+ seasons with 40 homers between them, then the offense would be significantly upgraded from within simply by maturation. It would be nice to get something out of Patterson, but I’m still not sure what to expect of him yet. Crosby’s terrible, so that’s one confirmed black hole in the lineup.
With so many question marks with the offense, but a solid base of pitching, it only makes sense to add a bat or two to add some certainty to the equation…
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
I'd accept a 780 OPS+ from any spot in the lineup
Heh.
I actually forgot about Outman when I was reeling off all the potential bullpen guys in one of the other threads. The current bullpen is really good, and then it’s backed up by a metric ass-ton of prospects in the minors. Andrew Bailey’s looked like a new man since they moved him to the pen:
35.1 IP 7 R 10 BB 36 K 1 HR 1.41 GO/AO
If there’s one reason why Street SHOULD be traded, it’s that the team has so many relief prospects it doesn’t even know what to do with them. There are at least 5 guys (Devine, Demel, Carignan, Casilla, Rodriguez) who can make a legit case for being termed the “closer of the future,” 6 if you think De Los Santos will come back as a reliever, and several others like the aforementioned Bailey who look like solid setup men. There are 5 or 6 lefties who look like acceptably solid performers.
The A’s should make a concerted effort this offseason to move some of that bullpen depth for prospects (or major leaguers, if anyone’s amenable) in other areas. Depth is wonderful, but you don’t need 20 bullpen pitchers.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
"a metric ass-ton of prospects"
totally fucking awesome!
that gets my vote for QOTM.
I also agree with you in that the A’s should look into trading some of the surplus of arms they have in the pen’. For God’s sakes, Billy:
Bring us a big stick for our boys!
I'm really interested to see Cunningham come September
Yesterday on the pregame show, Dave Forst was talking up the guys in the minors and he mentioned AC and Josh Outman being everything that they had thought of them when scouting the two in trades. He seemed very excited about many of the top prospects in the organization ie; Simmons, AC, Cahill, Anderson, H-Rod, Mazzaro, Cardenas, etc…
It’s the first time I have heard him hint at the fact the ballclub actaully has a surplus of talent in certain areas, while continuing to search for answers where the team is lacking in position players. I’m truly excited about this off-season and I have a feeling that there will be some serious action going on at the winter meetings.
Again I’m with Grover on this one by adding one bat by a FA signing for a couple of years and then making a trade for another.
My vote goes to Jason Giambi returning as the prodigal son DH/1st baseman back up for a 2 year deal, maybe with one year option.
My trade wish would have to be the A’s putting together a package that brings Jimmy Rollins back home to Oaktown. Who it might take to get him here is anyone’s guess but if you’re gonna make a trade for a top notch dude, then go top notch an shoot for the stars! Go A’s!
Here's my question concerning Cunningham
Who’s losing their spot on the 40 man so Cunningham can get promoted?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Keith Foulke
Saarloos or Hannahan.
I hate unproductive outs and the A's are producing them at record production
I forgot about him
NO
He has had too many chances IMO
I hate unproductive outs and the A's are producing them at record production
Not in my mind.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
I think I'm going to do a FP on this soon
Who should get called up and who should get knocked off the 40-man for September callups.
Should go up tomorrow or Monday.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Monday might be too late
The A’s will have already made their move.
There’s an idea, we could all just wait to see what happens rather then speculate on the Internet.
Naaahhh!
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm not expecting major moves Monday, actually
and not just because the A’s dislike alliteration.
Most of the affiliates will be in the playoffs (in fact, if Midland hangs on to a half-game lead over the final 3 days, all four of the full-season ball teams will be), so I don’t expect major changes until their respective runs are concluded.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
They usually do...
…unless the A’s have an immediate need for their own post-season push.
"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds
Sarloos
Hannahan still plays good D so I can’t see him going. Keith Foulke also really makes no sense anymore. The season is over and he is done as well.
There is an article from Scout.com
Billy Owens talking about a future dynasty.
Does anyone have the full article
I hate unproductive outs and the A's are producing them at record production
It's dated August 27th
So, Yes
I hate unproductive outs and the A's are producing them at record production
How on earth did Jesus Guzman not make that team?
You basically can’t hit any better than he did this year…
Maybe there was a minimum plate appearances cutoff and he missed it slightly or something?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
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