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Taj's Tuesday Trade Target: Dan Uggla

Recent whisperings out of South Florida indicate that the Marlins will be "open for business" this winter as they face the possibilty of having to add significant payroll next season if they wish to retain all their players. The guy projected to cost the team the most in his arbitration-raise is slugging 2nd baseman Dan Uggla, who is likely to recieve a $4.5 million salary bump in his 1st turn through arbitration. Now, $5 million is still a bargain for a guy with Uggla's skill set, but the notoriously-thrifty Marlins might look to cash him in this winter while his value is at an all-time high.

Star-divide

The A's, on the other end of the ledger, have some financial wiggle room, a nearly ever-present need for a right-handed slugger, a presumed opening at 2nd base next season and enough prospect depth to presumably make a strong play for someone of Uggla's caliber. I say Beane should at least test the waters for Uggla.

Dan's shortcomings are well-known: he's kind of a butcher in the field and he strikes out a lot. However, whatever runs he gives up in the field, he makes up for with the bat. He's pretty much a lock to hit 25+ homeruns and slug close to or over .500. He takes a few walks here and there, but he's much more power than he is patience. He's also under club control for the next three seasons in his age 29, 30 & 31 seasons, so he's very much in his prime.

What would it take to land Uggla? I don't really have an idea. Slugging, All-Star 2nd basemen don't exactly grow on trees, however Dan is not without his faults. He's still damn valuable though. I'm not really that familiar with the Marlins or about what their needs/roster issues are. Everyone can use pitching, though, say maybe the package would start with South Florida-native Gio Gonzalez. Then maybe you could include a live bullpen arm like Casilla or even Henry Rodriguez and maybe thrown-in a decent infield prospect like Petit. I think a Gio/H-Rod/Petit package would get the tires rolling.

If the A's were to nab Uggla and then sign Jason Giambi for a season or two, the A's offense would dramatically improve for 2009-2011. A possible lineup:

1. R Sweeney - RF

2. A Cunningham - LF

3. J Giambi - DH

4. D Uggla - 2B

5. E Chavez - 3B

6. K Suzuki - C

7. C Gonzalez - CF

8. D Barton - 1B

9. B Crosby - SS

That lineup, with speed and contact skills at the top and power and patience in the middle, would likely score a lot of runs. Gio + H-Rod + Petit would be a lot to give up, but for a slugger in his prime that plays a position where the A's have an immediate need, you are going to have to pony up a bit. Gio is a great prospect but he's somewhat redundant in an organization flush with medium-cieling lefty starters, and he'd certainly be marketable for the Marlins. H-Rod has a great arm, we all know that, but his prospect stock has taken a hit now that it seems like he is going to be relegated to bullpen duty. Petit would be a nice utility-infielder but his loss isn't catastrophic with Patterson and Pennington in the fold. He could immediately step into the shortstop position for the Marlins, which would allow the Fish to move Hanley Ramirez to 2nd and thus improve their defense.

Worth pursuing? Terrible idea?

 

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I would love

to have Uggla on our team. We definitely have the resources to get him, but I have a feeling that we are intent on building our minor league more. I’m not so sure if Beane will leverage much on the system as of yet. Not until we can contend again.

by asyouwish33 on Aug 26, 2008 11:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

"..intent on building our minor league more."

interesting but i think we already have our share of AAAA players, and I’m willing to ship some of them out to bring in a Dan Uggla. No guarantees that all of BB’s moves won’t turn into different variations of the Hudson deal. If Uggla’s avail, we get him period.

by sf drift king on Aug 28, 2008 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This seems sort of obvious

but… the Marlins aren’t loking for AAAA players for Dan Uggla, they’re looking for future All-Stars.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 28, 2008 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

but..

according to reports, teams have been calling BB asking to trade for a number of our AAAA prospects.

by sf drift king on Aug 29, 2008 11:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade one for three AAAAA prospects!!!

I hear Huston Street has done a ton of research on this.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 30, 2008 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Marlins typically dump their stars...

but don’t do so for nothing. I’d even throw Eveland into the mix, though I suspect that the Marlins maybe looking for hitters as they have good young affordable pitching.

Who wouldn’t want Uggla? However, I think we should look for a corner infielder (perferably 3B) to build around. If Uggla’s D gets any worse won’t he have to move to 1B or LF? I’d rather send pitching prospects for Garrett Atkins or something like that.

"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra

by brenarlo on Aug 26, 2008 11:04 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you on Atkins

I would absolutely love to see him in green and gold, but last i heard the rockies are more likely to part with holliday than they are Atkins, who I’m pretty sure in sunder team control for at least another year or two, (correct me if I’m wrong). But, I would take either… or Pujols, let’s trade the farm for Pujols!

by stranahanahan on Aug 26, 2008 11:21 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think they'd trade either in the right deal.

Also, Atkins is playing a position where they’re overcrowded.

"I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did." -Yogi Berra

by brenarlo on Aug 26, 2008 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Atkins

He should be playing 1B everyday, even when Helton is healthy. The Rockies should try to unload Helton + Cash this offseason.

by Colorado Fan on Aug 26, 2008 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I read somewhere

that Atkins would cost about 20 million over the next 2 years

by HRH on Aug 26, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have a hard time taking seriously any rosterbation that has Chavez starting at 3B

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 26, 2008 11:23 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I thought

getting to third was out of the question during rosterbation

"Their batters are patient to the point that it's annoying." -Ryan Franklin

by Helloooo 1st on Aug 26, 2008 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno 'bout you, but if I'm rosterbating, I'm dreaming of getting all the way home

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 26, 2008 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Uggla is as bad defensively as I've heard, I don't like the idea of him on this team

Too many pitchers on this team need infielders who don’t trip over themselves when trying to field a ground ball. Uggla’s offensive value will be greatly diminished if he’s -20 runs defensively.

And, of course, you have to take away half a win for moving to the AL. And he’s moving to a park much more friendly to pitchers (well, it ranges from slightly more friendly to much more).

I think the A’s would have to give up too much to get a guy who probably won’t help them as much as the current offensive numbers would indicate.

by thejd44 on Aug 26, 2008 11:24 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

What you said re: A's pitchers

Guarantee someone like Brad Ziegler won’t be as effective with Dan Uggla in the field.

I like Uggla, but I don’t know that Oakland would be the right fit for him.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Aug 26, 2008 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd rather just resign Ellis for 3 years

It probably doesn’t cost any more salary wise and his offensive downfall this year has a lot to do with luck. His LD% is up, GB% up a tad and FB% down a bit, IFH% up yet his BABIP is .249, almost 50 pts below his career average. Some of this is tied into a ridiculous 25% IFF (I guess he’s been getting under the ball too much and popping it up?), but he’s still been unlucky.

When you take O + D into account Ellis may be > Uggla, and if not I think its pretty close, and we wouldn’t have to give up talent for Ellis.

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by iamawesomer on Aug 26, 2008 11:25 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I thought Ellis had a ridiculously high percentage of fly ball outs this year

I’m pretty sure somebody posted something about that a few weeks ago.

Either way, I’d take Ellis for 2 years plus a team option for a third.

by thejd44 on Aug 26, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fly ball outs maybe

This is probably due to his popping up so many in the infield. But his overall % of fly balls being put into play is down 4% from last year. But flyballs in general aren’t going to go for hits much if they’re not homers. From Fangraphs:

BABIP by Type (2007):
Fly Balls – .15
Ground Balls – .24
Line Drives – .73

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by iamawesomer on Aug 26, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm, interesting

From watching Ellis, I haven’t gotten the feeling that he’s been unlucky. It seems like he’s hitting a lot more weak pop ups than usual. Could just be a perception thing though.

by thejd44 on Aug 26, 2008 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Personally I love Uggla, all he does is mash

But he’s basically Cust with a few more homeruns.
Question: Think Cust would see better pitches if he had some protection like Uggla does? Well you know… pitches he can (should) actually make contact with.

I also don’t think the A’s will bring in Giambi because at this point, I don’t think Chavez can play a whole season at third base, having to throw it across the diamond. What you might be able to do though, is bring Big Frank or even Sweeney (but not both) back and let Chavy and Barton split time at first base and DH, with Chavy occasionally playing third.

Only then, we wouldn’t have Cust in the lineup very often if Cunningham gets to play, which I bet he will. The A’s are too crowded with DH’s that don’t play positions well (Cust, Thomas, Sweeney, throw in Chavez) so I don’t think Giambi will be brought in when we have cheaper options already in the system or willing to sign for cheap.

by NateHST on Aug 26, 2008 11:44 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Uggla would hit more home runs in Oakland/the AL

And he walks a lot less than Cust.

And there’s really no such thing as protection. This has been proven. What does matter is guys getting on base in front of a hitter.

by thejd44 on Aug 26, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're Saying...

That having a better hitter behind you doesn’t influence the aggressiveness of the pitcher facing you? Say for instance.. the better hitter doesn’t increase the percentage of 3-1 fastballs you’d see to 3-1 breaking balls?

I have to say.. that even if you produce some sort of “proof (ie spreadsheets)” for this theory… I’m probably still not gonna buy it..

A's Fan in Philly

by Duby on Aug 26, 2008 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Same - it's just common sense

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 26, 2008 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ah.........can you say

Jeff Kent hitting in front of Barry Bonds the year he won MVP? That most definitely counts as “protection in a lineup”.

Uggla sould work as a full time DH and backup 2nd baseman or outfileder. Full time at 2nd base just scares the Bejesus out of me……!

by mrod on Aug 26, 2008 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK

The proof is out there, but it’s pointless to attempt it if you believe as an article of faith that protection exists. The Bible says (or, at least, implies) that the value of pi is 3. I’m not going to bother with a mathematical proof that that’s hogwash if you tell me that your faith states that pi is 3. (Although I will probably mock you. Fair warning for any pi=3 believers out there.)

The evidence for clutch hitting is much, much stronger than the evidence (or rather lack thereof) for protection. That’s saying a lot, because the evidence for clutch hitting ain’t much.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 26, 2008 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was Texas or another Southern state

where the legislature voted to enact a law, making the value of π to be 3.000.

"You can take all the sincerity in Hollywood, place it in the navel of a firefly and still have room enough for three caraway seeds and a producer's heart."
Fred Allen

by One won lost won on Aug 26, 2008 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, it was Indiana, I believe

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 27, 2008 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep ...

in 1897 … it only passed one house and never became law …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Aug 27, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

protection

I think protection might be one of those things that could be anecdotally true but doesn’t really matter so much in practice. Not that I actually believe that. For multiple reasons, but to get into it let’s say the anecdotes are true and you do see more fastballs in front of a good hitter than you would otherwise. The numbers don’t support this theory, but it is the central tenet to the protection theory so let’s go with it for now.

To start are we really absolutely sure that ML pitchers necessarily locate their fastballs better than their curveballs? A pitcher who has so much trouble locating their curve that they can’t throw it when behind in the count probably doesn’t have great control of their fastball either, so it may not matter anyway. For that matter, is it really better as a hitter to get a fastball than a curve? Hanging breaking pitches are much easier to hit than a good fastball. If you’re facing a pitcher who is so unsure of where his stuff is going that he won’t throw a curve with a good hitter coming up, you’ve got to think that the chances of him hanging one are pretty high too. Maybe you want to get that curveball. For that matter, pitchers can’t automatically throw their fastballs for strikes, which is the crucial part of the protection theory, that you’re going to get a fastball for a strike and you jump all over that. And even if they could, no pitcher is going to sit there grooving fastballs to Joe Average because Manny Ramirez is hitting behind him, because Joe Average isn’t really average – he’s one of the best hitters in the world and you can’t groove fastballs to anybody in the majors except Bobby Crosby. But let’s say Fred Average the pitcher does anyway … what we have to consider now is the flip side that Fred Average’s fastball is a pretty great pitch. It comes in at 90 and has more movement than any of us have ever faced. So even if Joe is waiting for it it’s still pretty damn hard to hit. And Fred’s got eight fielders behind him, probably half of which are amazing, trying to catch the ball if you do hit it. And even if you do give up that base hit to Joe, you’ve still got roughly a 70% chance to get Manny out. Those odds aren’t bad. Why risk throwing Joe a bunch of stuff he might rake when you’re still more likely than not to get Manny out regardless? Throw Joe your best pitch (which might be the fastball anyway) and then throw them again to Manny. What else are you going to do?

I think this is where, anecdotally, the protection theory begins to break down. Even if there are a bunch of pitchers out there who are so lacking confidence in their breaking pitches that they can’t throw them behind in the count with a good hitter coming up, it might not really matter. The assumption is that behind in the count w/ good hitter coming up = a fastball is coming = the batter is going to/has a better chance of getting a hit. This might not be true (the numbers say it isn’t true). And even if it is, the effect might be so small that it doesn’t make any difference. After all, how many times during the year is Joe Average at the plate with a 3-1 count and Manny Ramirez behind him? 30? 40? A few more? A few less? Is 50 PA with a slight advantage on one or two pitches in the AB as compared to a regular AB enough to make a huge statistical difference over a year’s time? And is it even an advantage for all the reasons above?

Most likely I think the situation doesn’t really come about b/c you don’t see many pitchers in the majors who have to abandon everything but the fastball when they get behind in the count. Those guys are all in the minors and their name is Henry Rodriguez. (I joke, I joke. Sort of.) I think it’s more likely that ML pitchers throw everything as hard as they can at everybody because everybody in the majors is dangerous. Some more so than others but they’re all the very best hitters in the world.

by jdr on Aug 26, 2008 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's much harder to spot a curveball ...

where it’s going is less predictable, no matter how good you are.

Take Barry Zito, for example, the break on his fastball has a standard deviation of 1.08 inch — his curveball, though, has a standard deviation of 3.08 inches. It’s just the nature of the pitch.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Aug 26, 2008 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the more that I think about this

pitchers throw their fastball 70% of the time at least anyway. Probably even more often when they’re behind in the count. So even if you’re getting protected and they’re throwing more fastballs so it bumps up to 80 or 90%. I don’t see how it would create a huge advantage to get a fastball slightly more often when you’re likely getting a fastball anyway.

The logic of protection is weird to me – seems like it should be the reverse of the commonly accepted wisdom. The protection thing says that pitchers are worried about the hitter(s) before Manny getting on base because Manny might drive them in. So the result is a pitching strategy (fastballs down the chute!) that actually results in those hitters getting on base MORE often (i.e. having a great year)? That just seems bizarre to me – if protection really existed I would expect that the guy hitting in front of Manny would have a worse year than expected, because pitchers would be throwing the kitchen sink at them trying to keep them off the base.

by jdr on Aug 27, 2008 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think clutch hitting could be better examined if somebody would come up with a good definition of a clutch situation

Protection, on the other hand, is pretty simply defined and is therefore a lot easier to investigate. As I stated (and as you’ve backed me up), it’s been proven to not actually provide a benefit in a player’s production.

by thejd44 on Aug 26, 2008 9:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

so, you abstain from protection?

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 27, 2008 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I believe in π true outcomes

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 27, 2008 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's funny ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Aug 27, 2008 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Bible does not say, nor imply that ...

It gives measurements of a cauldron that don’t quite add up … that’s a far cry from making any claim that pi = 3.00.

In just one of long, long stream of examples of the bible and science actually having a heck of a lot in common — if you take the time to think it through rationally — it turns out that the inner circumference of this giant cauldron, which was made about 3,000 years ago, would have been more or less exactly 30 cubits.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Aug 27, 2008 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

and the cauldron used to have a nice pour spout, until Al Davis came along ...

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 27, 2008 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So that would make Al Davis Nebuchadnezzar

and Lew Wolfe Zerubbabel?

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Aug 27, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

didn't the Niners used to play in Nebuchadnezzar Stadium?

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 27, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any Giambi begot Hatteberg

who begot DJ. And DJ begot Daric who begot staples in his head…

"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty

by 5Aces on Aug 28, 2008 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

so the entire destiny of faith

is in reality an example of rounding down a number?

"Camelot sure fell apart, didn't it?"-Steve McCatty

by 5Aces on Aug 28, 2008 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Taj you have Cust not listed on your lineup

Did you trade him? Did you cast him off? That’s a question in need of answer for this scenario. Cust/Giambi, while Giambi is probably a better player would still come at a significantly higher price tag. You can put him at 1B and help him teach Barton what to do. Of course then that might degrade his development a bit.

by jasonlbe on Aug 26, 2008 11:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Cust / Uggla

If we had both those guys in our lineup we’d be looking at 400+ K’s over the course of a season. I think you can justify one power guy with huge K numbers but not 2. IMO. I would rather have Uggla. He pays a traditionally low power position, he strikes out less, he hitss for more power and a higher average. True, he walks less also.

Baja been here

by bajablue on Aug 26, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's get Dunn too

We could really set some records

by HRH on Aug 26, 2008 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What bothers me about this post is "IMO"

When something has been statistically proven, why do people still hold a belief that goes against the evidence and simply say that it’s their opinion? Why do people assume that saying it’s an opinion justifies having a wrong belief? bajablue, not trying to jump all over you but this is something I’ve wondered for quite some time.

Ignoring all other arguments, it’s entirely possible for a team to have Uggla and Cust and all their strikeouts and not only be good, but be a very good offense that wins a whole bunch of games. They’ll just make a lot of their outs via the K, and many fans will not enjoy watching that team as they win games.

by thejd44 on Aug 26, 2008 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Shit, they were just talking about this on the broadcast last night

The Marlins have over 1100 strikeouts (strickouts?) this year. Their offense is much better than Oakland’s overall despite that ridiculous K rate (it’s like 8-9 Ks per game).

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 26, 2008 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's have more power than anyone on this team by a wide margin

so I’d love to have him. Heck, I’d rather stick him at DH and ditch Cust.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 26, 2008 12:19 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

that'd be a really foolish solution ...

… if only because Uggla’s going to be so much more expensive than Cust, for only a marginal performance upgrade.

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 26, 2008 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I question how much of an offensive upgrade he would be

The only real benefit, I guess, is that he’s right-handed power. Dan Uggla 2008 EQA: .299, Jack Cust 2008 EQA: .296. I don’t think that even qualifies as marginal.

by thejd44 on Aug 26, 2008 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was giving Uggs the benefit of the doubt, to counter my natural procustean bias

He does have gaudy double totals, and a significant AVG advantage over Cust.

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 26, 2008 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was my thinking.

He’s right-handed, and he’s more a more useful part in the event Patterson falters.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Aug 26, 2008 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Uggla is not a second baseman

If you’re getting him, you’re effectively getting him as a 1B or DH. Certainly his defense is going to be bad enough that his “fielding adjustment” (positional adjustment plus how many runs a guy is above or below average relative to his position) is going to be abominable no matter where you stick him.

If you’re going to get a 1B/DH, why not just get Giambi, or Burrell? The only difference between them and Uggla is that Uggla pretends to play a defensive position and they don’t.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 26, 2008 4:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

plus he'll cost a lot more than he's worth

Because his perceived value (All Star 2B who hits HRs) is much higher than he’s worth because he’s so terrible with the glove. The Marlins aren’t dumb – they may dump their good players but they always get quality prospects in return … that’s why they always have good players to dump. If they decide to trade him somebody’s going to ante up – he won’t go cheap. He seems like a pass to me.

by jdr on Aug 26, 2008 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have to agree that the A's are constructed such that

middle infield defense is crucial – power (at LEAST “doubles power”) is also crucial, so the A’s may have to find that power at other positions (3B, 1B, LF, DH). I’d love to have Uggla, but not at 2B – which unfortunately is the position he “plays”.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 26, 2008 5:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Don't like getting Uggla

especially giving up prospects to get him.

With Ellis still around (via FA) and E-Patt MLB ready I don’t think 2nd base is an organization weakness. Especially w who I consider the Heir apparent in AA in Adrian Cardenas(no he isn’t a SS) and a 1st rounder just drafted in low A Jemile Weeks.

My target and I may do a post is Kevin Kouzmanoff. SD has a replacement ready in Chase Headley(#1 prospect) cutting his teeth in LF. SD wants to slash payroll and we have what they need young pitching. Plus Kouz is cheap another year and when he starts to become expensive the A’s should be starting to contend. I would think Vince Mazzaro/H_Rod/Murton would get it done. None would drastically effect the farm and Kouz would definitely help the A’s.

Since I think Chavy and Barton both still have “value” you can rotate the 3 at 1st/3rd/DH along with Cust (at DH and LF).

I am against going after a blockbuster giving up any of the top talent when the A’s really arent going to compete for a few years.

OF CarGon/Sweeney/Cunningham/Buck/Cust/E-Patt(if needed)
3rd Kouz/Chavy/Pennington
SS Crosby/Pennington
2nd Patterson/Pennington
1st Barton/Chavy/

by Bud Light on Aug 26, 2008 5:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

why does everyone here love Kouzmanoff so much?

I see a 27-year-old who’s blah with the bat. Does he have some fabulous defensive skills that I’m not aware of?

by jdr on Aug 26, 2008 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

He’s a league-average third baseman who is sort of cost controlled.

That has some value, but not to a team that’s trying to build a plus lineup.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 26, 2008 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you might be overrating Patterson as a 2B option

Hopefully not, but his 2B skills haven’t impressed me and for a guy predicted to hit major league pitching he swings and misses an awful lot.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 26, 2008 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Everybody here knows I'm way, way down on Patterson

But I think this is a fair, objective statement about his future in the lineup: Although he’s had limited major league performance, that performance has not been good enough to pencil in a guy at his age for a starting job.

That doesn’t mean he won’t figure it out. It just means that counting on him to perform when he not only hasn’t done it, but has been given some (limited) chances and failed is a bad idea.

by thejd44 on Aug 26, 2008 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wouldn't Say love Kouz

But he will come relatively cheap fills a need a provides 25 HR pop and is cost effective.

I agree PT that the 3 would be a little much but Mazarro wouldn’t get Kouz straight up. Mazzaro/Buck or Murton probably would.

However to get a SEXY guy like Holiday would require a Cahill/Cardenas/H-Rod type package and whats the point? The A’s won’t contend next year and Holiday will be gone. Kouz is a cost controlled player who fills a need and won’t require a huge bounty.

I did like Taj’s other canidate in Neil Walker as he could probably also be had for a somewhat minimal package like say Cardenas (both bottom 100 prospects).

Anyway the biggest need could be filled in the 2009 draft GRANT GREEN – SS USC. If the A’s keep up the 2nd half pace they should be able to land him and then Kouz and Green could fill the right side in 2011 and beyond.

Just my 2 cents …

by Bud Light on Aug 26, 2008 6:43 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

25 HRs?

This year he’s 27 (and so theoretically at his peak) and he’s hit 19 in 502 ABs. That’s a lot of ABs for the 124 games he’s played … and reason why is because he has only 17 walks for a whopping OBP of .310. Yikes. He may hit 25 in a year in his career but it ain’t gonna be pretty.

Personally I don’t understand why we’d trade anything of value for anybody if we’re sure we’re not going to compete in 2009. What’s the point?

by jdr on Aug 26, 2008 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cardenas is so much better than Neil Walker, it's not even funny

Cardenas will be a top 25 prospect on BA’s end of year ranking. Neil Walker will not even sniff the top 100.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 26, 2008 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Would there be mandatory hugglas when he made a mistake?

by justarebelheart on Aug 26, 2008 6:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I would start investing in hugglas

Because we’d be using a lot of them.

by jdr on Aug 26, 2008 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rather than start a new diary I'll just post by Tuesday Trade Target Thoughts here

The A’s have a serious lack of talent at the hot corner, at all levels really. With reports saying Eric Chavez might be done at 3B, Jack Hannahan having a turrible offensive season (his defense is actually pretty good but not nearly enough so to make up for the offensive offense) and no true 3B prospects in the minors (Chris Carter is most likely not a 3B and while I think Jeff Baisley deserves a shot the 40 man roster is full right now, though personally I would send Duke to the 60 Day DL at this point and shut him down), the A’s should be looking to acquire a 3B for the future.

I’ve seen some people (for many different teams) clamor for Kevin Kouzmanoff of the Padres. Personally I think he’s not a very good fit, his 3.3 BB% and 20.9% are pretty bad each individually, and when you combine the two in one player results in a putrid .16 BB/K ratio (last in the majors). He’s also no great shakes on defense, most of the metrics agree he’s below average. At 27 years old he’s probably already in his peak stage, and if this is it, pass.

Another name that pops up a lot is the Rockies Garrett Atkins. A career .300 hitter, he appeals to many A’s fans who’ve probably forgotten what a .300 hitting 3B looks like (at least those who value AVG too highly, which unfortunately is still probably too many). I think people may be remembering Atkins 2006 (which was outstanding) offensively, and not focusing on the past two years where his ISO-P has gone from .228 to .185 to .165 this year and his ISO-OBP has dropped from .080 to .066 to .052, which isn’t very impressive. Atkins also makes Kouz look like a whiz defensively, Atkins was an awful – 29 by Dewan’s +/- last year -15 by Chris Dial’s DRS and was -12 by Dewan this year before being moved to 1B where he’s already -7. Turning 29 in December, he isn’t likely to improve, so pass again.

Enter the 3B I’d like to go after, the Royals Alex Gordon.

Coincidentally, while looking his news up I just learned that Gordon has been shipped to the DL with a torn right quad. I still would like to go after him and think it may be even easier now with this injury.

Gordon was the 2nd overall pick in the 2005 draft by the Royals. All he did in the minors was live up to that billing, starting out 2006 in AA and hitting .325/.427/.588. He was rewarded with the #2 prospect in baseball tag by Baseball America (really #1, Daisuke Matsuzaka shouldn’t count in my opinion) and #1 by Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein. These accolades helped him break Spring Training with the big league team, and Gordon was expected to step in and become a star.

He didn’t. Gordon ended up hitting .247/.314/.411 with an ugly 7.0% BB% and 25.2% K%. Most people expected him to go “Brauning” on the league (as an aside I think Gordoning sounds cooler, so nice going there Alex messing that one up) but Gordon failed to live up to the hype.

The 2008 numbers showed improvement for Gordon in almost all facets. Hopefully people don’t focus on the AVG difference of only .007 (his name is Gordon, Alex Gordon) and instead look at the whole line of .247/.349/.420. He’s upped his walk rate to 12.2, and his pitchers per plate appearance is up to almost 4 (3.94). He’s hitting more flyballs but not many popups or HR (8.0 IFFB, 8.5 HR/FB%). And that power has been to all fields as Hit Tracker shows:

Gordon doesn’t come without his faults though. I’ve used defense to bash Kouzmanoff and Atkins plenty earlier, and Gordon’s isn’t much better. Rany Jazayerli thinks that Gordon may be done as a 3B, which obviously isn’t very useful to the A’s with 1B and OF aplenty in the system. At only 24 years old though, I think Gordon may still be able to stick at 3rd, especially if his bat picks up like it looked like it might be.

He also may be eligible for Super Two Arbitration, though I think his DL stint and sub-par numbers will prevent that from happening. And even if it did, it may be a plus as the Royals don’t like spending a lot of money unless they’re handing out big Free Agent contracts to Gil Meche and Jose Guillen.

That being said, I have no idea what the A’s would have to give up to get him. I’d put Anderson and Cahill off limits, but everyone else is up for discussion including multiple players with regards to prospects. I’d even think about dangling Carlos Gonzalez and seeing what bites since the A’s do have plenty of OF talent, though I don’t like a one for one swap of those two and the Royals would have to sweeten the deal.

#1 prospects are #1 prospects for a reason, and they don’t all come into the league on fire (remember when BJ Upton was struggling? Doubt people are unhappy with that one now, unless they’re infatuated with hustling). That’s why I’d like to see Alex Gordon in an Oakland A’s uniform next year.

Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's

by iamawesomer on Aug 26, 2008 7:43 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think this is realistic ...

but he is definitely not going to be a Super-2. He will have exactly 2 years of service time after this season. Super-2 status is based solely on MLB service time. Time spent on the DL counts towards that service time.

I don’t think it is realistic because the Royals would effectively be selling very low on him — he is injured and has been something of a disappointment to this point in his career but has been touted as the future of the franchise. I don’t see it as making sense for the A’s to pay fair value for him, either, since there’s a very reasonable chance that he would just be added to the 1b/dh logjam …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Aug 26, 2008 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I can't see the Royals moving Gordon at this point

They’ll only get offers based on what he’s done in the ML even though he is/was once a great hitting prospect. As long as he’s cheap they’ll keep him around and see if he can get back to where he was.

by jdr on Aug 27, 2008 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kinda beside the point

But this is probably Duke’s best chance in his career to win an ERA title. Shutting him down on a team going nowhere is downright cruel.

by richwol1 on Aug 28, 2008 2:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Problem w Gordon is

Why would the Royals trade him?

Moose is good but he is in Low A ball. Teahan could slide back but he isn’t very good either.

Reason Atkins/Kouz are being said is that both teams have #1 prospects ready to take over 3rd base.

I personally don’t want Atkins solely cause he is a FA after 2009 and the A’s are playing beyond 2009.

PT – I am a huge Cardenas fan(he is the future 2nd baseman IMO) but no way he is a top 25 prospect. 50-75 yes

by Bud Light on Aug 26, 2008 8:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Moustakas isn't that far away

And they just moved him to 3rd. If they have to move Gordon off 3rd he loses a lot of value, whereas if they were able to trade him now as a 3B he’d be much more valuable. If they’re sending him to 1B they have Hosmer and Butler as better offensive options for the future, and I’m not sure Gordon will cut it well in the OF. Why not trade him then for an OF that will + pitching help?

Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's

by iamawesomer on Aug 26, 2008 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Carlos Gonzalez should be off limits, IMO

He’s going to be better than Gordon and has star potential – which few current A’s have.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 26, 2008 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why do you think Carlos Gonzalez should be off limits?

I’m still not sure whether he’s Reggie Jackson or Felix Jose.

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 27, 2008 4:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look, thejd44, I'm not going to qualify everything with,

“understanding, of course, that any time a lopsided offer comes your way you might make a trade of a player you normally wouldn’t consider moving…”

Yes, WaddellCanseco, Gonzalez could be Reggie Jackson or Felix Jose – if I’m saying he should be “off limits,” which one do you suppose I think he might be closer to…? Basically, I think he will be a very good player, possibly a star. I’m not too bothered by his “I have to pull everything!” 2 for 43 slump. Canseco had an 0 for 40 his rookie year; Carlos is 22 and he figures stuff out pretty quick.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 27, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Felix Jose wasn't bad for a couple of years with the Cardinals.

In any case I wasn’t asking which one you believed Carlos would be closer to, I was saying that I don’t think he should be off limits.

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 28, 2008 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be more worried about Atkins's suck rate holding constant

Seriously, his career has already peaked, and his peak is a league-average player. I’d rather sign Casey Blake.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 27, 2008 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

BA's midseason rankings had him at like #22

and he’s done nothing at all to disprove that in the second half.

He is going to be in the top 25. You can argue with their methodology, and they do have a woody for guys who hit for high averages and don’t strike out, but that he will be ranked high on their list is not a disputable fact.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 27, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure it is - it's in the future

BA’s future rankings are currently conjecture/opinion, and thus disputable. Once he’s ranked in the top 25, it will be fact.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 27, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I REALLY Like the Alex Gordon

We could probably get him for some pitching talent (Gio, Simmons) and some other throw ins. They have Moose already and hosmer for the outfield and butler for first and Gordon’s stock is down. It’s the perfect time to snatch him up. That was a good one imo.
I also like Andy Laroche. His stock is down with his current struggles, but I think he has the power, patience, and average to have an impact at third base.

The A’s really need to make a play for one of these two this year.

by HarbirD on Aug 26, 2008 10:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

For all the good things I hear about LaRoche,

he has failed in several big league cups of coffee now. He’s been…consistent.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 26, 2008 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And he also just got traded

You gotta think the Pirates will keep him around for a while. They just moved their best player for a package he headlined. They won’t punt for a while.

by jdr on Aug 27, 2008 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pursuing Uggla isn't a terrible idea

Just… not a good one.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Aug 27, 2008 8:55 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

what about Ian Stewart

You think the A’s can put together a package to get him over to Oakland, or is he off limits?

by webgem101 on Aug 27, 2008 11:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Start with Carlos Gonzalez

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 28, 2008 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I live in S. FL and I do follow the Marlins.

To the question of what they need, Kevin Gregg may walk this year, so a closer is a need as well as middle/late in bullpen help. They are losing patience with Hermida in RF and they really need a starting catcher. Strenghts, SS, LF, SP (they have a very good starting rotation that is meshing and will only get better, depending on injuries of course) 1B and 3B. Uggla is popular here as well, but that has never stopped them from letting good players go (kinda like the A’s).

The swinging (and missing) A's of 2008!!

by OakFaninFL on Aug 28, 2008 9:42 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Why are they losing patience with Hermida?

Isn’t he, like, 23? And, you know, really good? The only bad thing I see about him is that his games played is a little low… is he injury prone? Terrible at defense?

Shit, I’d take him…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 28, 2008 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's been injury prone ...

I’d take him too …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Aug 28, 2008 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why not... he'd look good on the A's DL

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Aug 28, 2008 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Better than Mike Sweeney ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Aug 29, 2008 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well....

This is coming from the inside. When Willingham was ready to come off the DL, the first person they said would lose playing time was Hermida, because he was not performing well offensively. I guess at the time when Uggla, Cantu, Hanley and Jacobs (for Jacobs it was HRs only) where hot, Hermida was in a fog. He has been slow to get it going and his BA is not where they would like it to be. Plus his plate discipline is not the best either.

I really do not understand it either. I would love to have him playing in OAK too.

And to Devo’s point, add the injury factor in as well.

The swinging (and missing) A's of 2008!!

by OakFaninFL on Aug 28, 2008 2:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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