Scouting the Young Hitters
At the risk of stepping on Nico's toes, I thought I'd borrow his idea and give my scouting reports on some of the A's young hitters, after he did the same with the pitchers last week. Here goes:
Ryan "Swooney/Good/Bad/But Never Ugly" Sweeney
Really good 4th Outfielder? Average Regular? Potential Superstar?
Sweeney took his lumps during April getting acclimated to being a full-time major leaguer, however since that time he's been one of the more consistent hitters on the team and arguably has been the A's best hitter - at least in terms of batting average - for much of the season. He's also flashed some serious leather , especially in right field, often to his own detriment!
Sweeney's swing is a pretty thing. It isn't long or loopy, it stays pretty level and occasionally he can open up and put a healthy charge on a ball (like he did in Toronto a few weeks back). He's got very quick wrists which really help him let the ball travel far into the zone before he comes through with his stroke. Basically, he's got the ideal contact-oriented, high-average swing. Unfortunately, this type of swing doesn't produce a lot of power, as evidenced by Sweeney's .377 slugging percentage and only 4 homers on the year.
Overall, Sweeney is an interesting case to me. He's got the build of a slugging corner outfielder but the swing (and the results) of an opposite-field oriented, gap-to-gap leadoff hitter (as evidenced by the fact that he hits about 40% of his balls in play to center or left field). He's pretty good at what he does with the bat and he's a great athlete, with good speed for his size, a strong, accurate throwing arm and the ability to play every outfield spot without embarrassing himself. Ideally, he'd be a very good and often-used 4th outfielder on a very good team, however, I see this team relying a little too much on him due to its offensive ineptitude.
One huge plus for Sweeney going forward: this latest DL stint notwithstanding, he's a pretty tough dude that will likely find a way to stay on the field and play through plain. That's certainly a very positive attribute for his chances to improve going forward, but I just don't see him as a future star due to his lack of power.
Daric Barton
It sure seems to me like Daric Barton wakes up every morning, looks at his atrocious slugging and on-base numbers and concludes that during the day's game he is either going to a) work on the OBP by taking every borderline pitch that comes his way in hopes of working a walk, or b) work on the slugging percentage by lifting every hittable pitch in the hopes that his flyballs will catch the jet stream and carry out for a homer. As you can imagine, this strategy has not exactly worked wonders for Barton's overall numbers.
I think overall, Barton is just a really confused kid right now. He is no longer getting the balls-and-strikes calls he got as a minor leaguer against inferior competition and as a result, he's tried to change his approach to become a more aggressive hitter. That's a shame, because Barton's strength is working the count and waiting for his pitch to hit and not forcing the issue.
One thing that jumps out at you when contrasting his batted-ball charts from this season and from last year at Sacramento is that Barton is hitting about 10% more groundballs to the right-side of the infield, and about 20% less fly balls to left and center fields. What that indicates to me is that Barton is pressing or even guessing at pitches, getting out in front of them and not letting them travel far into the strikezone. Since Barton is probably never going to be a homerun-hitter, he will need to get back to relaxing at the plate, letting pitches travel far into the zone (thereby allowing him better reads on balls ans strikes) and then driving balls to left and center and go gap-to-gap. He's shown glimpses that he can do this and also glimpses of an ability to work a favorable count and then jump on a telegraphed fastball. However, he needs to combine those two concepts and do it consistently.
Mychael Urban, in his latest mailbag, makes a good point for all of us that would like to see Barton optioned to AAA ASAP:
What if he struggles at Sacramento, though? Then he might head into Spring Training next year with even more doubt about his ability to hit big league pitching than he'd have if he continues to struggle with Oakland. On the flip side of that, what if he starts to figure some things out in the final five or six weeks? Then he heads for Arizona next February with some confidence.
I understand your frustration, but I see a lot of logic in keeping him in the lineup. The A's aren't going anywhere this year, and the only way to solve big league pitching is to face big league pitching.
I understand that logic and i guess at this point in the season there's no reason to send him down, but if he continues to spiral downhill the rest of the year, the A's have got to consider starting him in the minors next season and looking for alternative long-or-short term options for 1st base.
Travis "Bad Luck" Buck
Lost season? Or lost career?
Buck has only accumulated a little over 100 major league at-bats so far this year due to his various mental and physical maladies. However, due to his track record, relative youth, low-salary and low-trade value I imagine that A's brass still have confidence in him going forward.
There were times last season when Buck looked like a budding star at the plate. I remember being in attendance at a game in Anaheim where he went something like 3-for-4 with an opposite field homer, opposite-field double and a rocket single to center. He was limited by injury even last season, but managed to get close to 300 at-bats and post a very respectable line of .288/.377/.474 line. He also played good right-field defense, provided a little speed at the top-of-the-order and seemed to mature into a team leader as the year progressed and in the off-season. For all of these reasons, I still have faith in Buck.
He began this season looking out-of-sync at the plate and never really got comfortable as the year wore on. When not striking-out, he was rolling over on pitches to the right side of the infield and just making bad-contact overall. After getting sent down not once, but twice, and then sustaining a couple of injuries while in the minors, it is clear that this whole season needs to be completely written-off for Buck. If I were him and the A's, I wouldn't even attempt to get back on the field for the rest of this season for any organized professional game. He needs to relax, go back to the A's complex in Phoenix (where he should be most comfortable environment-wise) and work diligently to get back to the place he was both mentally and physically during the middle of last season.
Like I said, I still have faith in the guy. Going forward, I think the best defense/offense combination in the A's outfield for the next 3-4 years would be Cunningham in left, Cargon in center and Buck in right, with Swooney getting considerable time as 4th outfielder and maybe Denorfia and/or Murton involved in the rotation as well. If Buck can get back to give the big league team 300 at bats per season the next few years at his previous .850 OPS, then he'll still be a very valuable player.
Carlos Gonzalez
5-tool All-Star? Above-average centerfielder? Average regular? Future bust?
I have a hard time getting a read on Cargon's potential. There's no doubt that his tools are off-the-charts, yet I am a bit skeptical that he'll be able to make the adjustments necessary to become a truly star-level player. On the one hand, his 21 doubles are a nice indicator that he's capable of hitting for at least gap power in the major leagues . Also, against right-handed pitchers, Cargon is already an above-average center-fielder, batting .286/.323/.451. His defense, by most measures, has been stellar and he's seems to have answered any questions about whether he'll be able to stick at center for at least the foreseeable.
However, Cargon's struggles against lefties so far in his young career (.189/.211/.257) and his unrefined approach at the plate (65-12 K-BB) are causes for concern and may limit his ceiling in the future. Against lefties, he's got to stay inside on the ball and shorten his swing. When he opens up against them, he's done. A lot of young lefty hitters have this issue early on their careers and self-correct later on, so there's a good chance he'll address this issue at some point. As for the plate discipline...it would have been nice for Cargon to have been able to work on this for a longer of period of time in the minors, since he still needs work on his patience, however, that wasn't possible with the big league team's immediate need.
It's also important to note with Cargon that he's still only 22. He's far from a finished product and even now he seems to be making small adjustment, even though he's been struggling lately (he seems to be seeing more pitches per plate appearance, for one). I imagine that he'll always be quite a bit better against righties than lefties throughout his career, but with a little adjustment, he could become decent against lefties. He'll also probably K a lot as the years go on, but since he already has the skills to hit for a pretty high-average in the major leagues, the plate discipline issue won't bury him since his OBP could be propped up with his average. Overall, I think Cargon will be quite an asset as a strong defensive centerfielder that could hit for a high-average, bop 15-20 homers and steal some bases. annually for the next several seasons.
Kurt Suzuki
The Next Pudge Rodriguez? Or a flash-in-the-pan?
Among the troika of Buck-Barton-Suzuki who many of us considered to be the building blocks of future playoff contenders, I'm almost certain that not many of us would be sitting here in the middle of August believing that Suzuki would be the one leading all three in every offensive statistical category. But it's true.
Suzuki, who has seemed to both act and play like a major leaguer since the outset of the season, is now batting a solid .290/.357/.385. His caught-stealing percentage (35%) and fielding percentage (.994) have both been stellar and he has guided the pitching staff to an overall 3.74 ERA under his watch. He's also been an iron-man behind the plate. For a kid with arguably the toughest job on the team (preparing for opposing batters, guiding a parade of young pitchers through struggles, controlling the running game) he's pretty much done all you can ask of him.
As a hitter, I love Suzuki's approach at the plate. He keeps his head down, sees a lot of pitches, stays level through the zone and doesn't strike-out very often. Urban noted in his latest mailbag that he talked to a scout about Suzuki's future, and the scout mentioned that Kurt could be a regular .300-average hitter that pops about 15 homers a year for several seasons. Those aren't superstar numbers, but they are well above-average for a catcher and when combined with his strong defense and leadership abilities are enough to make Suzuki a potential All-star, in my opinion, in years to come.
In a year full of downers, Suzuki has kind of flown under-the-radar as a pretty big upper and while his emergence alone can't salvage a thoroughly disappointing season, it's nice to know we all won't have to worry about the catching position for many years to come.
5 recs |
91 comments
Comments
Agree with most, except for take on Sweeney...
I think you’ve put a lot of thought into this and have some solid points, but you really think of Sweeney as only a 4th outfielder. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for being realistic, but the guy has hit .290 through 300 at bats in the big leagues, while playing through pain. The first season that he didn’t come up in September. To me, when a guy who’s 23 mind you, can come up and do that, that is a solid hitter. Scouts also project that he will fill into his body and put some power into his swing, so while I’m not saying he will be a superstar or a power hitter, any guy who hits .300 year in and year out for any club is a starter on any club, especially if he can hit with RISP.
As far as your other assessments, I would agree almost 100%, although I think we will see a bit more power out of Cargon than you think, I think he could have a few season of 30-35 homers once he learns to hit the high fastball and the hanging breaking ball.
by stranahanahan on Aug 19, 2008 1:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like Sweeney's skill set a lot...
and do agree that he’d be a good enough regular for this team for a few years, especially with the fragility (both mental and physical) of pretty much every other young hitter on this team. Ultimately, the reason why I see him, in my “perfect” world assessment, as a 4th outfielder, is that if Buck gets his act together and hits like he did last season, then he’s probably a more valuable hitter for the lineup due to his edge in slugging when compared to Sweeney. And I have a sneaking suspicious that Aaron Cunningham will make the Opening Day roster next season and provide some righty-balance to the lineup, leaving Sweeney as the odd man out.
But you know, with Buck still a major wild card, Cunningham totally unproven and Murton and Denorfia pretty much low-upside options, there is a good chance that we’ll see Sweeney in the lineup more often than not, which is not a bad thing by any means.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
by Taj Adib on Aug 19, 2008 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
He’s going to have to develop further to be a starting corner outfielder for a world series contending team. His average is great, but he needs to add either power or patience to get that OPS up to the 800 range if he wants to avoid being a 4th OF once things improve.
As to stranahanahan’s “any guy who hits .300 year in and year out for any club is a starter on any club” point, I couldn’t disagree more. If you add 13 points to Sweeney’s batting average, he’s still at .739 OPS which just isn’t enough.
The positive is that he’s a rookie (and 23) so there’s some reason to believe he’ll develop the ability to draw walks or get XBHs and become a useful corner outfielder. I sure hope he does.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 19, 2008 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When someone says that about batting average,
just reply, “Alex Sanchez.”
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 19, 2008 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't literally mean "any guy"
I’m just trying to make the point that a guy who can hit big league pitching this well in his first pro season should not be thought of at all as a 4th outfielder, especially on this team… Plus I would rather have a guy who hits .375 with RISP (as Sweeney is) and a .750 OBS, than a guy who has a .800 OBS but hits .275 with RISP, your thoughts?
by stranahanahan on Aug 19, 2008 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I don’t really believe that batting average with RISP is definable that way. Most players over their careers hit the same.
Given that, I’d take the .800 OPS every time.
My point, really, is that he has shown he can get a lot of singles. He has shown a relative inability to produce other positive outcomes. If that changes (either walks or power) he has a great batting average to build off of, but if it doesn’t he’s Jay Payton.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 19, 2008 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do agree that a .300 hitter is valuable
and something the A’s sorely lack. Trouble is just that without any slugging, it’s kind of Jason Kendall. With a little slugging, it’s Howie Kendrick (whom I’d like to have). It’s just the question of “.300+ every year” or “.300 in a good year, .260 in a down year”? Mark Ellis hit .316 one year, but…not every year. Polanco? Different story.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 19, 2008 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hear you...
i just see a real gamer every time i watch him play, something tells me he is one of those guys who will do more than just stick around.
by stranahanahan on Aug 19, 2008 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We'll see (and I hope so)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 19, 2008 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A "gamer"? They oughta put that in a commercial...
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 19, 2008 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is Shooty Babbitt available???
He was a real gamer.
by Keystone State on Aug 20, 2008 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great writeup, but again I'll pose the question: Why is Sweeney's age ignored?
Especially since there was a specific mention of CarGo only being 22 and having development and adjustments left to make.
It’s just oddly curious to me that everybody expects Sweeney to be relegated to 4th OF duties as soon as next season, when he’ll be 24.
by mikev on Aug 19, 2008 2:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Just pure power potential.
I’m not altogether relegating Sweeney to 4th outfielder-status, I just think that there is enough data at-hand to reasonably conclude that there is a good chance he will never hit for an ideal amount of power for a corner outfielder. Take, for instance, these numbers into consideration:
Cargon (aged 22) has already hit 10 more extra base hits (26) than Sweeney (aged 23 – 16 XBH) in 20 fewer games and in 33 fewer at-bats. Last season, in his aged-23 season, Buck hit almost twice as many XBH (34) as Sweeney has so far this season in his age 23 year in about the same amount of at-bats.
Granted, we’re talking about single seasons here and those XBH numbers can vary somewhat with BABIP numbers and other factors, but I think it’s reasonable to conclude that a healthy Buck will hit for more power than Sweeney right now and for the next few years while Cargon has more power potential for the future as he’s younger and already out-slugging Sweeney at the major league level.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
by Taj Adib on Aug 19, 2008 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sweeney
has never OPS’d .800 in the minors (besides an 8 game stretch w/ the rivercats this season), and hasn’t done so in the Major’s either. He has a BABIP that is still .336 (down from .350).
Put it this way. Eric Patterson’s track record should probably be considered a wash with Sweeney’s (and that might be generous to Sweeney)
by ohmangoAs on Aug 19, 2008 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If there's anything this season has taught me
It’s that you really never know what a guy can do until he’s done it for 2 or 3 seasons in a row. And even then you still don’t know (ahem…Mark Ellis).
There are always disappointments and surprises when you’re dealing with unknown quantities. Buck, Barton, Suzuki, Sweeny, Gonzales, and Denorfia all give us hope, but they are still, by and large, unknown quantities.
One thing I feel confident in predicting for next season? One of the 3 strengths of the offense (Suzuki, Sweeney, & Cargon) will wind up having a disappointing season. Likewise one of the 3 disappointments (Buck, Barton & Denorfia) will wind up having a strong season. The good news is that if 4 or those 6 guys live up to their hope, we could wind up having a decent offense.
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 19, 2008 2:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nicely said.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
by Taj Adib on Aug 19, 2008 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice work
I really wonder whether there is an added psychological effect for the A’s players when their home park plays so pitcher friendly, kind of a reverse Coors field effect. you start to change your approach when the long fly balls are always caught, and even seem to die quickly during BP, the infield grass plays slightly slow too. Couple that with the feeling on the road that you’d better take advantage of the chances in the more hitter friendly neutral parks and then pressing starts to develop and feed upon itself.
I do hope that the A’s get their new park in the next few years, and that it plays neutral overall.
as for your young five hitters, I still have the most faith that Barton will be a very good major league hitter, but maybe the least faith that he will do that soon and/or with us. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was in AAA for some other club in 2010, gets a mid-season call-up, and winds up crushing the ball, and is one of the better hitters in the league in 2011.
Suzuki indeed has been great, and will be cheaper than he could be because his numbers are depressed by the bad hitting and bad hitting environment in Oakland.
Buck will either be just fine next year, or will be damaged goods, it’s hard for me to see much in between for him. In other words, I think we’ll know rather quickly if he is back or not.
I don’t have much hope that CarGon will make “the leap” to be an elite hitter, but he doesn’t have to be to maintain some value, and his lack of a refined approach at the plate and reliance on skill and instincts, while lowering his ceiling, also means that he is less prone to completely lose it ala Buck and Barton this year.
I honestly have no idea what to expect of Sweeney going forward.
by jakarta on Aug 19, 2008 2:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, Taj - I unexpectedly took this morning off because I
woke up feeling about as spry as Jack Hannahan’s swing is fast, so I’m glad something got posted. Apparently, the A’s really DO make me sick!
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 19, 2008 4:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Disagree a bit on Buck
At this moment I have no clue as to what type of player he will end up. Before this year (and last) he appeared to be be a high average, good power guy. Now he appears very streaky, perhaps injury prone, and in need of a confidence milkshake. That is why he needs to come back up to the majors in September get a few at bats and with any luck he will regain some confidence going into next year/winter ball. Of course this could backfire, but it could next year as well. Better in a lost year to find out if he has the right attitude to move forward and reassert himself.
by jasonlbe on Aug 19, 2008 4:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Your plan makes some sense, IF...
Buck is fully healthy by September callups. At this point, he hasn’t even played in a AAA game for almost a month now and it certainly seems like the combination of his early-season major-league struggles and his debilitating Sacramento injuries have really shook him up. If he’s not healthy nor confident nor in playing shape, sending him up to the majors come September would almost be assuring him of further failure.
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
by Taj Adib on Aug 19, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Has he had too much major league time to qualify for the AFL? I think he needs to play
some sort of winter ball, to get his confidence back.
by theblackpearl on Aug 19, 2008 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice write up.
I would disagree on Sweeney. I see him putting up major power numbers next year after a winter off and spring with the A’s. Just a gut feeling. As long as he stays healthy and stops his diving, although I like his agression.
by A'sfansince1970 on Aug 19, 2008 4:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Same goes for Barton
No more diving
by GusanoQuemador on Aug 19, 2008 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where is this perceived power surge going to come from? He has never hit more than 13 homers in
any minor league season, and everyones favorite punchline has a higher slugging percentage.
by theblackpearl on Aug 19, 2008 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's the build
He’s tall and built fairly well, with a definite ability to put more muscle on his body. He needs to hit the weight room in the offseason. I don’t see any reason Sweeney COULDN’T hit for more power in the future, but it’d probably take a couple years.
"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox
by Gallagher's Watermelons on Aug 19, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh God, PLEASE don't put the idea in the minds of
the A’s S & C staff that Sweeney should hit the weight room. Ask Harden and Chavez what that “pump up, more more more!!!” mentality did for their health.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 19, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, he looks even better in a baseball uniform than Crosby ever did
There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Aug 19, 2008 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: Sweeney power
it’s in the forearms. IMHO, what Sweeney needs to do is just build up more forearm strength, to help out his “quick wrists”. have you seen his forearms? they’re built like a pitcher. and have you ever seen Chavez’ forearms? the dude’s built like Popeye.
by rollierollieOxenfree on Aug 20, 2008 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you are right
that forearms are crucial. i agree completely with that.
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 22, 2008 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i can come up with plenty of instances
where guys didn’t hit for power in the minors but had a build fit for power, saw some big league pitching, worked with some coaches and put it together (hell, Carlos Beltran never hit more than 19 in a season before the majors). than, on the other hand i’ve seen guys hit for huge power in the minors and have none on the majors… you never know with a guy of this kind of his build.
by stranahanahan on Aug 19, 2008 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My takes, in nutshells:
Sweeney – I think fans are too caught up in his strong batting average. 1 hit every 100 ABs is 10 points on the average. Throw in a smidge of worse fortune and Sweeney is a .270 hitter, and put a .270 average on his stats and he is not a good corner OFer offensively. He has to develop power to be more than a “great 4th OFer” and I haven’t seen a swing that would predict it. I think he’s done a terrific job but I anticipate regression, not progression.
Buck - Who the heck knows? His .851 OPS last year wasn’t “respectable,” it was awesome in light of the home park he plays in and the speed he adds to his game. This year, as well as his injury history overall, is just bizarre. This is one case where I can honestly say I have no clue whatsoever.
Gonzalez – I think he’ll be a star in every regard except for possibly hitting lefties, which is a big “except”. If he doesn’t improve his approach and wait longer on pitches instead of starting his swing wondering what pitch he’s swinging at, he will peak as a Hank Blalock level hitter. With his swing and tools, and the fact that he’s doing what he’s doing at age 22, his ceiling is still Beltran – but only if he becomes equally proficient at hitting LHP and RHP, which is highly unlikely. Likely middle ground between Blalock and Beltran? Eric Chavez: plus defender, middle of the order hitter with excellent stats but a dropoff against LHP.
Barton – My take: Immature, stubborn, has flaws that only time (maturity) will fix. His bat is also slower this year, making me still wonder about whether his hand has fully healed (not that an A’s player would play through injury and put up lousy stats). I say back to AAA in 2009 with the message that nothing comes easy – he will hit when he’s 26; don’t know about when he’s 24, though.
Suzuki - I think he’s just flat out better than the scouts thought. He’s smart, doesn’t try to do too much at the plate, just tries to “hit the ball hard to all fields” – which is, IMO, the best approach for consistently hitting well. I agree that he could hit close to .300 with 15 HRs, though the rigors of catching may be felt at the plate over time.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 19, 2008 4:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good takes, Nico.
Sweeney, I see, as a good 4th outfielder because of the whole package. He’s pretty much a 4-tool player, with of course the “power” tool the one missing. I’m not gonna delude myself like so many others thinking that “he’ll hit homers when he fills out”, but I, while I know batting average is overrated, Ryan’s got a track record of hitting for a pretty good average at every place he’s played. I won’t predict that he’ll be an annual .300-hitter, but I think he’s got the ability to be a .270/.350/.420 hitter with 8-10 homers for a couple seasons, which is pretty good for a guy that can play above-average corner OF defense and play a decent center if necessary.
Agree on Cargon, Barton and Suzuki (hopefully Geren will follow through with his commitment and rest him more this year and next).
It’s true it’s probably folly to try to predict anything about Travis Buck’s career. But I do so because last season Buck played in only 82 games of the season and yet he had a very positive effect on the team’s offense. He might always be prone to nagging injuries, but the team doesn’t need him to be the next Miggy in order to improve the offense…
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
by Taj Adib on Aug 19, 2008 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess an interesting distinction with Sweeney
is between hitting .270/.350 and slugging .380, .400, .420, .440, etc. You go from really pretty lame for a corner OFer to pretty darn solid. What is Sweeney’s true slugging pct? Only the crystal ball knows…
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 19, 2008 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heck
I’d like to see the .270/.350 part instead of .270/.317 (his current differential on a .270 average)
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 19, 2008 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In predicting stats, I'm keeping in mind that the Coliseum
lowers batting averages. So .270/.350 isn’t bad in that context, but still needs a slugging pct in the .400s to get me excited.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 19, 2008 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
I’m just saying he hasn’t shown he can produce an OBP 80 points above his BA yet. I hope he can, but he’s only 47 over this year.
"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson
by nevermoor on Aug 19, 2008 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That doesn't really translate.
The higher a player’s BA is, the more walks they need to maintain their BA/OBP differential.
IE:
It’s easier to maintain a .80 BA/OBP differential if you’re hitting .270 as opposed to hitting .300.
by VORP is too nerdy on Aug 20, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On Sweeney and Gonzo
I agree about how quickly the average may deep. One thing to consider is that many hitters who can bat for a high (relatively speaking) average such as a Figgins-type can make up for the lack of power by either extending those bloop singles into doubles and alley way doubles into triples. Not only that, by they can be a terror on the base path as well.
That is something that I am quite certain Sweeney will never accomplish, making his lack of power all the more concerning.
As for Gonzalez, I could see him as J.D. Drew (when healthy) type player, not so much a Beltran. Perhaps he has the power, but I don’t see it as of now.
by Pucking Insane on Aug 19, 2008 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe thats why Beane is buying up all the LHP he can get his hands on.
That way there are less quality lefties to pitch to CarGon. Just a thought
by A'sfaninNC on Aug 19, 2008 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if Beane
thinks that quality LHP are more effective than quality RHP?
by ohmangoAs on Aug 19, 2008 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The one thing that jumpedout at me was the comparison of Cgon to Chavez
In 1999, Chavez’s first true trial with Oakland (454 G in 1998) his BABIP was .261 in 350 AB. In the 6 years subsequent he jumped to around .290-.300 until falling off in ‘06.
Maybe because I like Chavez, but am secretly bitter he didn’t become more. So in hopes of Carlos being a superstar…
In 2008, Gonzalez has a BABIP of .332 in his roughly 250 AB’s. If you look at Gonzalez’s minor league BABIP there’s not much differrence. If his contact rate improves, which we have to assume will, I think we’re looking at a monster. What we hope is he doesn’t have the same plight as Chavez against LHP, and I just don’t think he will….Chavez was always one of those guys you WISHED would be a big timer…but I think we all knew deep down it wasn’t there.
Anyway, BABIP isn’t everything, but it is something when you’re considering a player who in the big picture is still a raw hitter like Carlos is.
"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."
by SwampyD on Aug 19, 2008 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
(45 AB in 1998, not 454 G) yay.
"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."
by SwampyD on Aug 19, 2008 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I pretty much agree with Nico above
Suzuki – he’s just good. He is the type of player who’s going to play at pretty much the same level regardless of the competition. He’s solid, stays inside the ball, has a very level swing, but doesn’t overwhlem you in any aspect. As a result, he won’t necessarily crush terrible pitches, but he won’t be overpowered by really good ones. Defensively, just watch his feet. They’re always under him and his fundamentals are flawless. I think he was underestimated because of his ability to keep things simple.
Barton – He has never impressed me. Here is a guy with a somewhat long swing. He could have immense power if he was longer. He has a leverage approach at the plate, but he’s just not big or strong enough to be that type of hitter. So he looks for walks. Could be an excellent defender, but he’s another JT Snow or Doug Menkewiecz (or however you spell that?) at best. More likely, he’s just alot of hype. I hope I’m wrong.
Buck – Pretty much the same as Barton. He was in the zone for a while last year, and major league pitchers didn’t know low and outside was his power zone. They adjusted and he got lost. He’s a downright bad outfielder, so he better hit the cover off the ball to stick around. Bottom line is that he was never a great prospect and still isn’t.
Sweeney – I’ve been extremely impressed with his defense and arm. I like him. I don’t know if he can really hit like Rod Carew, but that’s who his swing reminds me of. Is he a flash in the pan? I don’t know, but I like what I’ve seen so far.
CarGon – I have no idea what to think. He might be a total bust, but his isolated abilities ("tools") are so impressive that you’ve got to just keep your fingers crossed and hope he becomes a star. I don’t think he’ll be average. I somehow expect him to get appreciably better or worse in the next 15 months. We can hope.
Landon Powell – Don’t give up hope on this guy. He should finally be healthy next year (or maybe sooner.) If he starts hitting, he could be our 3rd baseman!
by iceplant on Aug 19, 2008 5:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Buck
Buck was the top prospect in the A’s organization as recently as a year and a half ago. He skipped AAA entirely and then went on to post an .851 OPS as a 23-year old in his rookie season leading off for most of that season. He also had a perfect (1.000) fielding percentage at three different outfield spots last season, again as a rookie, has posted Zone Ratings of .920+ for the last year in a half at all places on the field he’s played and already had 2 outfield assists in only 26 games this year. So, in my opinion, he’s been both a very good prospect AND a pretty good outfielder in the past year-and-a-half.
But, yeah, he’s had a total lost season. Hard to defend him there…
I'm never gonna do it without the fez on!
by Taj Adib on Aug 19, 2008 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buck never was a great prospect ... very good, maybe ... I'd say "Good" ...
that he was our top prospect speaks to the dearth of talent in the system before the rebuild …
I agree that iceplant is probably drastically underrating his D.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 19, 2008 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buck always *looked* pretty bad in the outfield
Like Byrnes without the sense of fun and adventure: whereas on realizing he’s taken a bad route to a ball, Byrnes exudes “whee!” Buck exudes “aw, crap.”
There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Aug 19, 2008 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The main issue I had with Buck in the OF
is that oftentimes he didn’t actually catch the ball. This was sometimes a problem.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 19, 2008 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He also throws like a girl.
This is yet another reason I think it’s weird that so many posts go the route of “When Buck figures it out and gets back to Oakland and Sweeney becomes the 4th OF”
Sweeney is actually a pretty good defender as long as he’s not in center, and he’s performing fairly well offensively at age 23 after bouncing around the Chisox system.
Buck had an out of nowhere year after skipping AAA completely, and still is yet to play a complete season at any professional level because he’s apparently a delicate little flower.
by mikev on Aug 19, 2008 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Barton's changed his swing. It's a loopy mess right now, but in his call up
last year it was a thing of beauty.
by OldhamA on Aug 20, 2008 3:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
if sweeney or even buck = andre ethier
type hitter…would you take that?
ops in that 825-850 range
15-20hr
avg 280-290
30+ doubles
by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 19, 2008 5:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I still like Buck but
his arm sucks for RF.
If anything Cunningham in CF and CarGon in RF
by Bud Light on Aug 19, 2008 6:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
For a guy with such baseball skills and overall athleticism
I was unpleasantly surprised that Buck wasn’t a better OFer – but I do think he is “ok” and not horrible. His arm is pretty bad, though, so I would agree about LF instead of RF.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 19, 2008 8:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
good enough...
when you got jack cust in left right now it makes Buck seem like a gold glover
by mattman on Aug 20, 2008 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This confirms my point made above.
Buck forgot how to hit this year and can’t stay healthy. The guy has literally never played a full season professionally!
Why do people keep penciling him in as a starter next year? I mean, hell, if he DOES come back and put up an .870 OPS again and play passable defense, that’s awesome because it helps the team. I just don’t see it when comparing him to Sweeney.
by mikev on Aug 19, 2008 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kendall comp?
Does anyone else think that Suzuki will have a career that looks a lot like Jason Kendall’s? Occasional All-Star, high OBP, high AVG, SLG not too much higher than OBP with solid defense.
by wickethewok on Aug 20, 2008 7:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
as long as we get to see Zooks charge Lackey
Im ok with that comparison.
by oakinboston on Aug 20, 2008 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kendall was quite a bit better than that ...
at one point, posting upper .470+ Slg and stealing 20 bags a year … it was in those years that he was an occasional All-Star … lets hope Zooks does not suffer the same kind of catastrophic injury he did.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 20, 2008 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
injuries, plural
IIRC, aside from the Dye-esque time it took him to recover, the ankle didn’t really impact his hitting. It took the mysterious, never-fully-explained (and occurring-at-the-height-of-some-group-behavior-that-spawned-a-scandal) wrist problems that seemed to sap him of all power. And the LASIK apparently reversed his eyesight decline after he recovered from a bad case of cranioporosis.
There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Aug 20, 2008 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cranioporosis
The risk you take when you use your face to block incoming cleats.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
by iglew on Aug 20, 2008 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buck's future
compare these major league stats – uncanny? scary?
a) .368 .445 .288 (OBP, SLG, Avg)
b) .377 .474 .288
A = Charles Thomas, Braves, 2004, 268 AB’s
B = Travis Buck, Athletics, 2007, 285 AB’s
I hope there’s something more to it than “getting the book” on him, but Buck’s AAA year hasn’t been something to drool over this year.
by rollierollieOxenfree on Aug 20, 2008 7:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Travis Buck was actually good in the minors and considered a good prospect ...
that’s a huge difference.
His numbers in Sacramento are actually pretty good, aside from his dearth of power. I expect that he’ll get it together. Two Buck Chuck’s numbers in Sac are ghastly. Buck is also younger.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 20, 2008 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buck was also 2 years younger, in a pitchers park, in a tougher league.
And Buck had something like 70 more plate appearances.
by thejd44 on Aug 20, 2008 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Swing & Miss
Granted it was a small sample, but in 2007 when Barton swung, he missed the pitch only 11% of the time, a good number. This year, he is swinging and missing 20% of the time. It is unusual for a player to have such a discrepancy in consecutive seasons. My own layman’s analysis is that he is taking too many hittable pitches waiting for the "perfect" pitch and that he is overswinging, trying to hit 3 HR with every PA.
Buck is not the sharpest knife in the drawer (and maybe Barton isn’t, either) so he struggled this year when pitchers seldom threw him FBs in the strike zone. His minor league track record, injury-truncated though it is, is strong and indicates a player with real hitting ability but whether or not he can make adjustments is still an open question, IMO.
Gonzalez has obvious strengths and weaknesses and it is likely that, with experience, his weaknesses will become less weak. (That’s weak.) Given his all-around skill set, he does have a legitimate chance to be an impact player.
My 2¢.
by LogicRules on Aug 20, 2008 7:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
2007 was a miniscule sample ...
no swing in results from that small of a sample size should be considered unusual.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 20, 2008 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless Buck swung and missed those results too
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 20, 2008 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buck and Barton
Barton: last year when he was called up, he had quick hands which allowed him to wait on a pitch. This year he looks slow. He has always received alot of walks in the minors, but at the major league level he will not get the calls that he is used to.
Buck: same as Barton on his swing. Last year from Spring on, he was a line drive machine. Agreed, he has had injuries which has slowed his progress, but he needs to show some durability.
It seems that the problems that these two have encountered this season are the same. Is it them or could the guidance given to them in the Spring have messed with their minds?
by bamaA'sfan on Aug 20, 2008 8:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If we have to remember Gonzalez is only 22
We have to also remember that Sweeney is only 23 and Barton just turned 23 last week.
I do like that I was at least right about Suzuki. For some reason, nobody thought he would hit in the majors. I never understood why.
by thejd44 on Aug 20, 2008 11:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Nobody thought Zooks would hit for power ...
so far nobody has been proven wrong.
Zooks had shown good but not great ability to hit for average in the minors and very good on-base skills. That’s a profile that does not offer a lot of room for error. He’s pretty much fulfilling his full potential to hit for average and draw walks — this was largely a best case scenario.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 20, 2008 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Suzuki is going to be more consistent than other A's young uns,
but never much more than he is now – which he doesn’t have to be in order to be outstanding. I see him sustaining a pretty solid average (.270-.290) and maybe hitting 10-15 HRs with a fair number of doubles, but no more than that. More days off could help him a lot over time.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 20, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But a catcher can hit 0 home runs and still be an above average catcher
And it seemed like most people acted like Suzuki was a guy who would stick around as a journeyman backup type at best.
10-15 home runs a season from a catcher who also provides a good OBP and solid defense is pretty freakin’ awesome. He might not be the best in the league, but he’s not a guy you’re desperately trying to replace.
by thejd44 on Aug 20, 2008 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, sure ...
but there was no guarantee that he was going to provide a good OBP and, in almost a full season’s workload for a typical catcher, he only has 7 HRs, so far … 10-15 is hardly a lock …
Like I said, we know more about him now than we did then. If he were batting .250 with 5 home runs, you probably wouldn’t be as happy —but that would have been a totally reasonable outcome.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 20, 2008 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He had a .376 OBP in the minors
He walked a lot. That’s why I didn’t understand why people thought he wouldn’t put up a good OBP. And he has 7 homers with a month to go in his age 24 season. I don’t think it’s unreasonable for him to hit 10-15 every year for the next 5-6 years.
I guess I just don’t see why people weren’t as high on him as I was. So far, he’s doing pretty much exactly what I expected offensively. I am, however, pleasantly surprised with his defense.
by thejd44 on Aug 22, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure ... but if all he can do is walk ...
then he’s Mark Johnson …
You pretty much have to have at least two of the three core skills to succeed in a meaningful way in the majors. It was clear he had one — the ability to get on base via the walk — but if he couldn’t make reliable contact, he had a high strikeout rate in the minors, especially for someone with very little power — and he couldn’t hit for power, well then, he was going to end up washing out like Mark Johnson.
Luckily he has been able to improve his contact skills a bit and, because of that, hit for a solid average. Now that he has done that, great, he’s a good bet to continue to be a solid player. Before he did that, though, there were plenty of reasons to believe he wouldn’t.
It’s not unreasonable to think he might hit 10-15 for the next several years — I didn’t say it was. I said it is hardly a lock.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
by devo on Aug 22, 2008 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the work, Taj
I’m even gonna recommend it.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Aug 20, 2008 1:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You have been too damn agreeable lately. Too much carbon inhaling?
by theblackpearl on Aug 20, 2008 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just got back
I’m not in ass-kicking mode yet.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Aug 20, 2008 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about now?
Now?
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
by Nico on Aug 20, 2008 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
::pokes with a sharp stick::
Come on, get mad! Grrrr!
by thejd44 on Aug 20, 2008 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What the heck?
Isn’t it better that I’m being reasonable and contemplating my responses while refraining from using my now patented crush-their-skulls-with-a-hammer approach? Shouldn’t I try to be a more well-rounded poster, one more considerate to the potential ignorance of my fellow man?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Aug 21, 2008 6:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@
by monkeyball on Aug 21, 2008 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Sweeney's swing is too long
and if pitcher’s start pitching to him inside consistently and hitting they’re spots, he’s never going to hit for power.
But I think there’s a reeeaaallyyy good chance that all of the players mentioned above are going to turn into just about the same type of player. The only player scouts think would put up some good power numbers would be Cargon, and it’s definitely too early to say that he won’t, but when you look at everybody else:
Sweeney, Suzuki, Barton (if and when he realizes his potential), Buck (if and when he gets back) and even Cunningham, they’re all the same offensive type of player. High averages with a good eye who are going to put up 15 to 20 to 25 (max) homeruns with a whole bunch of good defense.
Coincidence? Or is this Beane’s new strategy. Moneyball? I’ll take 9 Sweeney’s all day.
by NateHST on Aug 20, 2008 9:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't everybody talk about how short and compact Sweeney's swing is?
Anyway, 15-20 homers is fine if everybody is doing it and hitting 35-40 doubles, too. That’s sufficient to have a decent offense. If they’re good defenders and the pitching is good, that team will win a lot of games.
by thejd44 on Aug 22, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+2 here!
I’m in the “high avg./obp/mucho dbls/15-20 hr’s from all of those guys club plus great defense and solid pitching” fan club. Gitter dun!
by mrod on Aug 23, 2008 6:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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