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Beating a Dead Horse

I've been doing alot of reading here this year and almost no posting.

I was thinking about this season and found that perhaps the best gauge for my '08 fandom is how long it is taking me to watch a Tivo'd A's game.

Pre All Star I was watching every inning of every game. Probably investing a couple of hours on each game. I now find myself (yesterday is a good example) starting the recording and moving through it on the fastest fast forward ( I watched Gio's first inning though). The game took about 15 minutes to "watch".

My 12 year old son's reaction to the A's is another gauge. Early in the season he'd ask if the A's won, what the Angels did, and how many games behind we were. That morphed into "did the A's win". Now he just asks "another loss?".

I've been trying to explain Beane's strategy to him--and I've managed to get him excited about Gio and Carlos and to a lesser extent Patterson and Pennington. He now also knows about Anderson, Cahill, Carter, Mazzaro etc.

We've gone to a couple of River Cats games.

But, none of this really addresses just how bad this season has become.

The A’s lost their 10th consecutive series on Sunday, tying an Oakland record set in 1979.

Since the All Star break, Oakland is 5-23, a winning percentage of .179, putting the team on pace for the worst second half ever. The 1943 Philadelphia A’s went 15-61 in the second half, a winning percentage of .197.

If we continue to start Braden and insist on continuing to reinforce to Dan Meyer that he is less than a Major league pitcher, if we continue to try to find some magic in Jack Hanahan's swing, to bat Jack Cust 3rd or 4th, to trot Emil Brown out there as a "cleanup hitter" etc. my finger will remain firmly on the fast forward button--in fact, if I could find a faster speed for it.....

 

 

 

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I am sure that will change in the next 25 or so games

Every day is just a little worse than the previous, that means every day is the worst day of my life.

by shooting4life on Aug 18, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This fanpost has nothing to do with violence or farm animals

How disappointing.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 18, 2008 12:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Please tell me you only abuse a very specific area of your farm animals

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Aug 18, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Manely

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 18, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be fair

I don’t think we should just DFA over the age of 28 and trot out the Rockhounds to face the opposition. If we head the prospects right now (for the most part) they won’t be ready, their confidence could be shattered or built up prematurely. A lot of these guys probably have mechanics to work on, and need to work their way up the ladder facing better pitching/hitting and see if they can still cut it. Just because they have the tools doesn’t mean they’re ready for the show.

There’s a few old sayings that’s said about good prospects: “He has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues,” “He just has to face major league pitching” etc. You get to that point after you show sustainable success at AAA, and nowhere below. Daric Barton, Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Sweeney are applicable to these statements. Chris Carter, Brett Anderson,and Trevor Cahill still have a lot left to prove, so they need to work their way up.

In the meantime, we have to field a major league ballclub. What happens if we DFA all these guys and the Angels suddenly go 3-22? Obviously it’s extremely improbable, but then suddenly the Texas Rangers stand alone and we look like idiots. This season would be awkward anyway if we called these guys up, since they also would be at a 250 EQA and an ERA above 4.5.

Obviously this is a lost season, but lets not rush guys that aren’t ready. We have some proven major leaguers that deserve their due, and until the kids are ready, we just need to hold our breath.

rebuildingseason.blogspot.com

by Rebuilding Season on Aug 18, 2008 12:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I know this idea doesn't really support the freedom of speech

But we really should all just ignore any fanpost that talks about Jack Cust like he hasn’t been the best offensive player on the team this year (and, for that matter, last year). I just can’t take people still not getting it.

by thejd44 on Aug 18, 2008 12:35 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

By the same token, shouldn't we ignore

any comment talking about fanposts about Jack Cust?

Not to mention: comments like mine about those.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 18, 2008 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

Consarnit.

rebuildingseason.blogspot.com

by Rebuilding Season on Aug 18, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cust has been our best offensive player

The keyword in that sentence is “our”. I mentioned Cust batting 3rd or 4th as symptomatic of our team’s bad performance, not as a criticism of Cust. On a good team Cust would bat in the lower part of the lineup. And, while Cust has been our best offensive performer his overall numbers, when looking at the AL as a whole, are somewhere between average and below average. To date, there are 79 AL players who qualify for consideration for the batting title. Here are Cust’s ranks among them:
BA: 73rd of 79
OBP: 16th of 79
SLG: 38th of 79
OPS: 32nd of 79
His 85 walks and 153 strikeouts lead the league.
RBI: T46th of 79
HR: T12th of 79
2B: T75th of 79
R: T54th of 79

Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. Billy Martin

by Steve in Napa on Aug 18, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

oUr!?

does cUsT play for yOU?!

[rants incoherently]

by oakinboston on Aug 18, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's funny, because I would take that as a sign to bat Cust leadoff

and not lower down in the order.

Despite his ability to get on base and hit the long ball, he’s not driving in runs. He’s a wasted commodity in the middle of the lineup. He has the best OBP on the team and also happens to be the best hitter on the team. Shouldn’t he be the one getting every plate appearance possible?

"Do you know that the guy really doesn't like baseball all that much?" - J.P. Riccardi

by black beane on Aug 18, 2008 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Being the best offensive player on the A's right now isn't much to be proud of

Relative to what Cust did last year, he’s considerably worse overall. That should be his measuring stick at this point along with how he stacks up against the rest of the league.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Aug 18, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe the team sucking worse around him

has something to do with his decline in production (RBI’s etc). I mean I could be wrong I could be I could be

"The two of them deserve each other. One's a born liar, the other's convicted."

by SwampyD on Aug 18, 2008 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know people are harping on RBI but I don't think he's had a lot of great chances to drive in runs...

…compared to the rest of the team. He’s not hitting particularly well w/ RISP, either.

I’m talking more about his power numbers, walk to strikeout ratio, etc. Last year he struck out about 1.5 times per walk. This year it’s 1.8. 22 homers? Nice, but he only has 11 doubles. The OPS+ is what everyone defending him is going to look at to say he’s actually having a very good year, but actually watching him proves otherwise. AVG, SLG, OBP, OPS – they’re all down.

Without all those walks, he’d be a marginal player. They really elevate the OBP.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Aug 18, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

[Head Explodes]
Without all those walks, he’d be a marginal player. They really elevate the OBP.

Without all those home runs, no one would know who Henry Aaron is. Without all those shutouts, Nolan Ryan would be just another successful pitcher. Without all those walks, Barry Bonds wouldn’t have had the best offensive season in the history of baseball.

Fact is, Cust earns all those walks (and always has). They’re an important part of the way he contributes to a team. Yes he’s having a worse year than last year (last year he was one of the best in the league) but he’s still good.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Aug 18, 2008 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Regarding RBI Opps

Baseball Prospectus has a number of valuable statistics regarding this, at
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=398888 that help. Let’s look at a few examples:

Cust has had the 2nd most chances to score people, according to Plate Appearances with Runners on base, he has 208 compared to Bobby Crosby’s 216.

He is third in total Runners On Base with 283, compared to 284 for Ellis and 319 for Crosby.

He is far down the list unfortunately in OBI%, 18th, with .11307, behind such RBI machines as Rajai Davis, Donnie Murphy, and Eric Patterson (Disingenuous I know because of small sample size, but still funny.) He is also better than only Hannahan and Denorfia at plating Runners on 2nd base, and is 18th on the team at plating runners on 3rd.

These stats speak a little to how anemic the A’s offense is though, since Crosby only ranks 52nd in the MLB in Runners On Base (Justin Morneau leads that category with 408) and 73rd in Plate Appearances with Runners on Base (Cust ranks 86th.)

So a few thoughts in conclusion:

1) Cust does get a lot of RBI opportunities for this team, but not compared to the rest of the league. However, he is not the best at plating these runners, and if we’re determining batting order strictly by OBI, perhaps those shots would be better put to use by Ryan Sweeney (.163337 OBI) Emil Brown (.16045 OBI% [I know, this will bring about a lot of grumbling) and Bobby Crosby (.13793 OBI%)

2) Cust obviously does not hit the ball often, which is required to bring runners in. So where do we bat a man that hits the home run or is otherwise station to station? Stat guys like to point to the idea that, statistically, you’re best off playing your highest OBP guy leadoff, and maybe there’s more to it here as well. If your best OBP guy isn’t actually very good at batting others in (other than himself with solo home runs) than perhaps he is best served at the top. It’s not like the A’s run a lot anyway.

3) Just because he doesn’t plate runners as well as he should, it does not mean he’s not a a very good hitter. He does get more chances than the average teammate, and there’s not much knowing how well the others would do since most of the other guys are rookies without much reliable data (you could do this for Brown, M Sweeney or Thomas, but there isn’t much debate to be had there.)

rebuildingseason.blogspot.com

by Rebuilding Season on Aug 18, 2008 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think one of the key things that tells me something about a hitter who walks a lot is...

…is he good enough to convert a lot of those walks into hits and just get so many walks because of how good his eye is?

With many hitters, that answer is definitely yes. Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Ichiro Suzuki. Just to name a few, those were all guys who didn’t strike out a lot for starters. Some of them walked more than others and had seasons where they got a lot more walks than usual, but all of them had excellent eyes at the plate.

Gwynn usually only walked about 50 times a season but that’s because he was too busy getting 200+ hits every year. He COULD have walked a lot more if he wanted to. Same with Suzuki, same with Brett, who probably had the best power of the players I mentioned.

I know this isn’t entirely fair to Cust because he’s a power hitter first, guy-who-looks-for-walks second, pure hitter a distant third, and the people I’m pulling out of my hat are all Hall of Fame types, but I’m mainly giving some examples of players who could have walked a lot more if they wanted to.

I think what stands out with Cust the most is he’s either looking to hit a home run or walk. There aren’t many hitters who would probably say one of their highest priorities when they step into the box is to draw a walk. Pretty clearly, Cust is not the type of hitter who’s good enough to convert walks to hits. He can get the walks and he’s great at doing that, but if a team NEEDED him to actually NOT walk and instead DO something with the pitch, he’s not the right guy for that.

There are some cases where teams will pitch around him because the A’s have no other threats to go deep, but it’s nowhere near a Barry Bonds type of thing. He was very tough to strike out where Cust is very easy to strike out.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Aug 18, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cust is not as good as Barry Bonds (or Gwynn)

But are you really suggesting he doesn’t have a good eye?

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Aug 18, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not at all

Cust has a great eye. He just doesn’t have the ability to maximize it as a hitter, which is a big part of why he whiffs so much.

I’d bet it’s pretty uncommon for someone to lead the league in both walks and strikeouts.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Aug 18, 2008 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think what happens with Cust is that

he walks a lot due to several factors at once:

1. He has a good eye
2. Pitchers know they can’t center a fastball to him
3. Pitchers have to throw him a lot of offspeed pitches to him

So you have pitchers stopping Cust from getting a lot of hits by throwing fastballs on the corners and a lot of junk – which is a recipe for walks when you’re facing a hitter who doesn’t chase a lot of bad balls.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 18, 2008 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Flashfire -- you hit the nail on the head!!

 "Pretty clearly, Cust is not the type of hitter who’s good enough to convert walks to hits. He can get the walks and he’s great at doing that, but if a team NEEDED him to actually NOT walk and instead DO something with the pitch, he’s not the right guy for that.

There are some cases where teams will pitch around him because the A’s have no other threats to go deep, but it’s nowhere near a Barry Bonds type of thing. He was very tough to strike out where Cust is very easy to strike out."

I would agree with the Cust supporters that he hasn’t had many chances to drive in runs this year — I would also agree that Cust is a decent player that would actually be very good hitting down in the lineup on a team other than the A’s (IOW, one that can hit) — and many of you insist that all the stats prove that OBP is most conducive to winning ballgames.
But Jack Cust walking twice a game does very little to help the A’s. And when there’s a man on second and third with one out? We don’t need a friggin’ walk. (And we REALLY don’t need a K) — we need a guy to make contact. Because usually, simply making contact will score the run.
Personally, I’m amazed whenever a pitcher walks Cust. Just throw strikes … sure, he’ll beat you occasionally … but usually he’ll strike out. If Jack Cust were on another team, he sure as hell wouldn’t scare me when he came to bat, that’s for sure. He’s not that good a hitter. He’s got a great eye, but he’s not that good a hitter. And there is a difference.
I still think a walk is more the pitcher doing badly than the hitter doing well.

I needed a team so I wouldn’t turn into one of the eighty million pink hat-wearing Bud Light-drinking mulleted idiots at Fenway.

by Vacafan on Aug 18, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just wish more people could accept this

Cust is very good at getting on base, but there’s more to it than just stopping there. It’s HOW you get on base and what you do when you DON’T get on base that’s just as important, if not more.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Aug 18, 2008 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually how you DON'T get on base is almost irrelevant

(although it doesn’t feel that way). It’s one of the more surprising results of the sabremetric movement.

How he gets on base is, of course, very important. If he hit for a higher average, his already good numbers would quickly become super-star level.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Aug 18, 2008 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What I mean there is in the kinds of situations Vacafan is talking about

If Cust is in an RBI situation then it definitely does matter if he strikes out instead of hitting a sacrifice fly or even a ground ball that gets a run in. If he has a runner at second with less than 2 out, obviously it’s more productive for him to move the runner over if he can’t drive him in, but he isn’t doing that by striking out. That’s not a problem that only Cust has on this team, though.

At the same time, even when he does walk in some situations it’s almost worse than getting a hit because it often brings up someone who’s less of a threat offensively. Where a single would’ve scored a runner from second or third, at least when there’s an open base, the walk keeps them where they are.

It’s about the contact part of being a hitter. Cust is not as good at that as others are, including some on the team. That’s why in an RBI situation I actually feel better with someone like Suzuki or Sweeney at the plate. I have more faith in their ability to put the ball in play when the team needs it.

In his time with the A’s, Cust has 190 walks against 185 hits, and that’s coming from someone who’s only been walked intentionally twice this year, twice last year. That’s another stat that’s got to be unique. You don’t often see a hitter with more walks than hits that isn’t the result of a ton of intentional walks.

Change just 40 of those walks into hits and I think you’d see someone who’s much more feared at the plate. Of course, a few less strikeouts would help as well.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Aug 18, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree that he's less useful than an "empty ba" type player in some situations

But they’re rare.

I also certainly agree that he’s a unique player (and one who wouldn’t have gotten a shot 15 years ago b/c his BA is low).

It’s also certainly true that hits are better than walks.

If we’re in a place where we need a single, I agree with you that I’d rather have Suzuki or Sweeney. I think in the end we’re basically agreeing and saying Cust is mis-used as a #4 hitter.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Aug 18, 2008 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty much, yeah

I even think the leadoff experiment would be worth trying, especially the rest of the season.

I guess the main problem I have with all this is based on semantics. He’s the best offensive player on the team based on the OBP, SLG and OPS, but I wouldn’t consider him the best hitter on the team because I believe that factors in actual hitting ability others are better at even if they don’t have the power or on-base numbers Cust does.

In a sense, Cust’s fortunate he’s as good at drawing walks as he is. If he wasn’t, he’d be Jack Hannahan with power.

Last of the Ninth - Photography Site / jamesvenes.com - Blog

by Flashfire on Aug 18, 2008 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

cUsT!

Let’s look at how Cust has really improved as an outfielder. Given that he was a born DH, his play has really improved over the season from crazy liability to can-of-corn. He breaks back on balls better than forward, but that is really a judgment call and far safer than dive and miss. As for his batting, in looking at his stats he is not so different as last year. Its just that with NOTHING else going on in the lineup his strickouts stand out more. It depends on how you view his role, if you watch just one of his at bats, you know he is an all or nothing hitter, with a good eye for the strike zone. And will probably put up similar numbers each season. Cust is not the problem, The patient approach of the A’s is taking a beating, as other teams are throwing strikes, knowing this team really isn’t so good at getting on base. Is that the hitting coach? Team philosophy? Bad hitters? FIRESALE? or just the way the ball rolls? When things go bad it’s too easy to look for the GOAT, and Cust is not the GOAT.

Enjoy the game

by DCinWC on Aug 18, 2008 1:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The patient approach is the problem

because the hitters are not good enough to able to take strikes and have a good at bat.

If we had more good hitters then obviously it would be much better. This team is not built for Billy’s philosophy.

You need 3 or 4 sluggers.

Cust would be fine down the order with a couple of big bats in the middle but the one issue I have with Cust is that he may get on base more than anyone, he hits way more homers than anyone but he is lousy with RISP. Many times he has runners on and they throw whatever they want at him and he becomes an out.

His average with RISP is much worse than his average without RISP. That is something he needs to address.

Hopefully next year we have a couple of better (batting average) hitters ahead of him.

I hate unproductive outs and the A's are producing them at record production

by Trainman on Aug 18, 2008 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My sentiments have been pretty much the same the last 6 weeks...

…I just don’t find myself caring to watch as much. If I miss a game… eh… I’ll check later to see how bad the damage was.

"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds

by UncleLeo on Aug 18, 2008 5:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

My take on the batting order

I think we should try Cust second. I’d put the guy that has the best combination of OBP and SB potential in the first spot. That gives that guy a decent shot at a steal with Cust up, since Cust obviously isn’t likely to hit the ball. At this point that’s probably Mark Ellis, though a case could be made for Sweeney if he’s healthy. I also think having Frank Thomas behind Cust enhances the chances that Cust isn’t pitched around strictly to get to the next hitter. Overall here’s what I’d try (I’m going to pretend Sweeney’s healthy for the sake of this lineup):

2B Ellis
LF Cust
DH Thomas
RF Sweeney
C Suzuki
CF Gonzalez
SS Crosby
1B Barton
3B Hannahan or whoever

"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox

by Gallagher's Watermelons on Aug 19, 2008 12:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox

by Gallagher's Watermelons on Aug 19, 2008 12:05 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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