The trade epidemic as it pertains to Justin Duchscherer

by StickRat on Aug 15, 2008 4:16 PM PDT Comment 21 comments

Hello A's Nation. I'm new to this site, and am looking forward to posting here. Looks like one of the better boards at SBNation.

Yesterday, in the thread regarding Pirates 3B prospect Neil Walker, I proposed the A's should consider trading for Cal alum Allen Craig. The thread was removed from the mainpage today, and I really am curious to gauge a fan response to the idea; not so much about acquiring Craig, but about the possiblity of trading Justin Duchscherer for such a high-valued, close-to-the majors prospect.

Here is the link to the post from the Walker thread:

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2008/8/12/592094/taj-s-tuesday-trade-target#8123043

It's no secret the A's have staked the future of the franchise on the populace of minor-leaguers acquired for great starting pitchers. Would it surprise anyone if Duchscherer was traded this offseason? Would it be a smart move, or do you all think he is too valuable at this stage, being he is one of the few veteran starting pitchers in the organization?

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My take: There's no way you would have to trade

Duchscherer, or even close, to get Allen Craig. Objectively, Craig is 25, has never proven himself as high as AAA, has modest road stats, and reportedly plays mediocre defense. He would not command one of the A’s “A-level” prospects (Cahill, Anderson, Gio), nor would he command a starter who is leading the major leagues in ERA and opponent’s batting average. To get Craig, the A’s would not have to deal Duke.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 15, 2008 4:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, Craig just turned 24, not 25

Here’s a link to his stats for those who are interested. Looks like a “masher” type, but I don’t know what the Cardinals think of him as a major league prospect, or what A’s scouts think of him. His career hitting numbers certainly caught my eye.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 15, 2008 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think many of us overvalue Duke

Many folks have pointed out that his peripherals in the first half, while quite good, didn’t support his gaudy ERA and oppAVG. I think we’ve been seeing some (non-oaktoon) regression to the mean with Duke over the past couple weeks.

I think other GMs are pretty much aware of this, as well as Duke’s age, health, and IP track record.

I have a strong suspicion that Duke’s on-field performance value to the A’s is far higher than his potential trade value.

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 15, 2008 4:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I sort of agree - he has to regress, as does Cliff Lee

But Duke’s track record is that of a highly effective pitcher who has proven to his critics that he can, in fact, be effective more than once through a batting order.

I don’t even know that he is “regressing” so much as tiring physically a bit – if Ellis hits second base in Toronto, Duke completes 4 shutout innings (in other words, he was pitching great), and his last start was 6.1 IP, 3 ER, which is absolutely fine.

His “true ERA” might be 3.00-3.50 instead of 2.00-2.50, but…3.00-3:50 is dang good for a starter.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 15, 2008 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly right

“regressing” is not the same as “not good” No one is reliably a 2 ERA starter, but Duke’s numbers suggest a top-flight pitcher.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Aug 15, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

true

I’m not at all saying he’s bad — just that, while we at AN may overvalue him, the market likely undervalues him (though I think the age/health/innings issue is pretty salient).

I really doubt that Beane would receive adequate return for trading him this offseason. ’09-10, though, if he “establishes” himself with another season like this …

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 15, 2008 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're right about the regression

and that he’s currently showing something closer to the level of his norm, but I’d disagree with your assessment that we overvalue him. I seriously doubt anyone here was expecting to get the value of the sub-2 ERA pitcher (and if they did, then, yes, they overvalue him). But I do see him as a top of the rotation guy with mid-3 ERA potential who’s value could get a Haren-like haul minus the age and minus the contract factors which is damn good. How much the age & contract impact that value is a little iffy, but he’s still very valuable both internally or in trade.

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by DMOAS on Aug 15, 2008 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say the answer to how much age and contract matter is "a lot"

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Aug 15, 2008 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd argue

that it depends on circumstances and need. If you absolutely need a guy of that caliber, then they matter a little. If you want a guy of that caliber, it means a lot. Trade deadline deals, age and his contract don’t matter as much and mean little. Off-season, a lot.

In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!

by DMOAS on Aug 15, 2008 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Derek Lowe

I wonder if you can compare Duke’s career trajectory with that of Derek Lowe. He came up as a starter with Boston, was brilliant in the ’pen for three years, came back as a starter and was unhittable his first year (21-8, 2.58 ERA in 2002).

Afterward he regressed into a good mid-rotation guy, which he now is with the Dodgers. His ERA since he became a free agent has been: 3.61, 3.63, 3.88 and this year, 4.11.

by richwol1 on Aug 15, 2008 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'd give up a braden/meyer type +

for craig

by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 15, 2008 4:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I would too

I’d also deal Crosby (who would be an upgrade over Cesar Izturis for STL), or Petit (he’s not a long-term answer for Oakland) or Casilla/A. Brown (who I believe are highly replaceable).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 15, 2008 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Petit has a better chance of being a long-term answer at short

than Craig has of being a long-term answer at third…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 15, 2008 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see Crosby as an upgrade over Izturis

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 16, 2008 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh.

Really?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 16, 2008 6:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Package deal

This hypothetical trade proposal would include Craig as the centerpiece of a two- or three-player package for Duchscherer. I certainly wasn’t suggesting a straight-up swap for the two. Duchsherer is an All Star for crying out loud. Billy Beane could surely get a couple sleepers with tons of upside like pitchers P.J. Walters and Mark McCormick.

by StickRat on Aug 16, 2008 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh, and FWIW ...

Taj’s FanPost wasn’t “removed from the mainpage today” — it merely dropped off with the other fanposts getting recommended.

I’m not at all criticizing the posting of this, though — I think it’s an eminently discussion-worthy tangent/discussion.

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 15, 2008 4:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

We already have Allen Craig

and his name is really Jeff Baisley.
Craig: 3B, 6’2", 190 lbs, R/R, 24 year one month old, hitting 303/374/494/867
Baisley: 3B, 6’3", 210 lbs, R/R, 24 year seven month old, hitting 294/376/494/870
Looks like the same guy.

by Hang Man on Aug 15, 2008 4:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting comparison

Two differences do stand out to me, though. One is that Baisley’s performance in 2007 was pretty so-so (.257/.308/.408), and that Baisley is already becoming a “true Athletic” health-wise…

…Then again, Baisley did what he did this year at AAA, not AA, so that’s a tick in his favor.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 15, 2008 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

baisley turns 26 in december

but if healthy he can be an above avg type player, solid defensively

at the very least maybe a sept callup…to show a decent 3b exists in the system

by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 15, 2008 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Craig vs. Baisley

If you mean “guy” — a technical term often used to describe minor-leaguers of enough notable talent to be career minor leaguers — then no, Craig is not the same guy. Craig is a player that swings a very projectable power bat.

I really don’t know much about Baisley, so I am not trying to rank on him. He was however a 22-year old college senior when he was drafted, and he has hit for mediocre power over the past two seasons, while being progressively more dominated by left-handed pitching. By the numbers, it means he’s probably a long-swinger who will get eaten alive by big-league pitching. Just going by the numbers though. Like I said, i know little about him.

by StickRat on Aug 16, 2008 2:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs