But with the emergence of Cunningham setting up a possible Cunningham-Sweeney-CarGon OF in ‘09 (talk about awesome defense), DH may be where Cust gets his at-bats next year.

I love Frank, and the fact that twice he’s signed league-minimum contracts to play for the A’s. But he won’t be happy if he has to take on a reduced role due to ineffectiveness, and at 41, he’ll be more and more likely to have bouts of ineffectiveness. He’s also practically guaranteed to log some DL time.

The nice thing about cost-controlled players vs. FA signees is that, in general, the young guys are probably less entitled and excited to be there, so you’re a little bit less likely to have Sheffield-in-Detroit or Thomas-in-Toronto problems related to playing time. If corner OF-DH-4th-5th OF turns into a battle royale between Cunningham-Sweeney—Cust-Murton-Patterson-Buck-Gaetti-Davis, that could be a good thing, and it would provide some decent platoon/defense opportunities. Unlike a free agent, there’s the added flexibility of being able to option the losers of that derby down to AAA, or subsequently yank up the hot hand.

for up to 5/$100M

OK, as much as would love it, and it makes sense to:

1) Create a buzz while the Giants are down

2) Take the pressure off the younger guys—Barton, Buck, Carlos

3) Get one of the all time greats, not some pseudo “undervalued” loser—Loaiza, Kendall, you know the list (Did I mention how sick I am of the word “undervalued”?)

4) Get someone durable, and surprisingly low risk, compared to Burrell (at least according to PECOTA)

5) He’d fit into our budget.

....I don’t think it’s likely to happen. In which case I’d pass on FAs.

I’m opposed to Furcal and Glaus because of their injury histories and age, unless Furcal comes on a one-year deal, but I doubt he will. I’m against McPherson because his stats are a mirage. 39 HR and 17 2B screams park effects to me.

Barring Manny I’d rather go with our in-house OF options - Buck, Carlos, Cust, Sweeney, Cunningham - than anyone on that list.

I’d rather deal with SS and 3B through trades - Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Wood, Wilson Betemit - than any of those guys.

If they’re in contention in July, I’d try and get Matt Holliday for prospects - Simmons/Mazzaro/Eveland/Smith, Carignan/Demel/Lansford/Italiano, Sweeney and Doolittle/Sulentic - or some such package, obviously less if they can manage that. Don’t touch Cahill, Anderson, Carter or Henry.

So for me it’s Manny or bust.

I’d love for the A’s to offer him a major league contract this offseason. Pretty darn impressive year, even though he’s failed in MLB before.

Someone with more time on their hands could do a more thorough analysis, but I think the A’s are unlikely to be competitive next year, so the only FA’s that might make sense are:
1) Cheap gap fillers who will get at bats while we let our young studs mature in the minors- see Brown, Emil
2) Long-term solutions where we lack options in the minors for 2010+

Looking at the list of hitters, there are likely some of type 1, but I don’t really see any of type 2. For type 1, maybe Blake, McPherson, Crede, or Helms if we don’t think one of our recently acquired 2nd Basemen can’t handle 3rd.

Given the sad state of our pitching rotation, it might make sense to risk some money on a starting pitcher. While it seems every FA pitcher automatically bombs, there are a few #3/4 types who could help us eat some innings if their price doesn’t explode – Wolf, Od. Perez, Looper. If you think these guys are not any better than anything we already have, then it doesn’t make sense. But if you think they have some upside for 2010/2011 when we’re competitive, it might be worth the gamble.

Of course, we could open the checkbook and sign Sheets or Sabathia to anchor the rotation with all the young kids. Given all the young kids, our core payroll will likely be low for a long time (all those overslot bonuses add up, but don’t close the $30MM gap that has opened up since last year). I don’ think it will happen, but it would be fun.

is that there is waaaay more money than talent out there right now. We are going to see some absolutely ridiculous sums of money thrown around this year and I just dont see the A’s being a part of it for multiple reasons. The first being that there just flat out aren’t many guys worth throwing a bunch of money at. Despite the injuries, Furcal is still the best shortstop on the market and is going to get paid. With the exception of Dunn and Tex, all of the impact bats available are on the wrong side of 30 and are all going to want (and get) long term deals. The second reason is that we still dont know what holes need to be adressed.

Is Daric Barton still in our long term plans at 1b?
Is Eric Chavez’s career at 3rd over?
Do we bring Frank Thomas back?
Do we risk blocking someone like Cunningham by sigining an outfielder?

So basically, we know we need a shortstop and maybe a 1B/OF.

We’re better off waiting a year when we have more money off the books (Goodbye Crosby!) and have a better idea of what we really have.

If we are to make a splash this year however, I personally would make a hard push for Dunn. He is a middle of the order bat the likes of which we havent had in a while, and at 29 is still relatively young. He can play OF or 1B depending on which prospect succeeds or fails and his price may not be too ridiculous assuming there are other GM’s out there who feel the same as J.P. Ricciardi. We also wont lose our 1st round pick as its likely to be protected at the rate were going. That pipe dream aside, I think Rocco Baldelli is an intriguing low risk, high reward possibility. Give him a Thomas-esque incentive laden deal and see how he does. I also would be all for signing Barry Bonds. I know many dont agree, but I also know the man can hit, and the A’s can’t. If we landed Bonds on a one year deal, signed Dunn to play 1B, and brought back Frank, we could have a lineup of:

RF Ryan Sweeney
C Kurt Suzuki
LF Barry Bonds
DH Frank Thomas
1B Adam Dunn
3B Eric Chavez (Hopefully)
CF Carlos Gonzalez
SS Bobby Crosby
2B Eric Patterson

I know this aint likely to happen, but we could conceivably have this awesome lineup to go with our phenomenal pitching staff and still have a payroll under $60 million. Chavez slides over to 1st and Dunn to left when Bonds or Thomas needs a day off. Everyone’s healthy and happy. Including the fans. I could deal with all of Bonds’ BS if I got to see that lineup everyday. And who knows? There might be a few more people sitting next to me at the ballpark that want to see it too.

No doubt we desperately need a third baseman who is major league material (and who can stay off the DL for more than 2 weeks) and a shortstop who can hit. I would stay away from any broken down, worn out end of career veteran and concentrate on the young and available. Yeh, I know- Lewis Wolf won’t part with the duckies to get anyone of any major talent, so we’re stuck looking for the hidden gems. My advice- don’t bring Thomas back and tell Cust to go sell used cars somewhere. Give every rookie in our farm system a chance to prove themselves and and go with the youth.

brian giles back when beane coveted him: impressive hitter.
brian giles no longer on steroids: average hitter.

we know how Beane has craved a right-handed bat for a while now

Let’s fix that:

we know how Beane AN has craved a right-handed bat for a while now

What is this bizarre righty fetish?

Because I think a lot of teams won’t enter the bidding since they’ll make like the AN trolls and say “TOO MANY STRICKOUTS. He hits .233?!? He SUKCS”

If he actually gets expensive I don’t like him as much but I see the rare opportunity for an elite offensive performer at relatively bargain prices. If we could get him for like 5/65 or something I’d be thrilled. If it requires 7/125 he’s not my horse any more.

Who I think Beane will actually sign: Kent/Garciaparra

We are rebuilding and trading away players like HRod, Mazzaro and Sweeney for someone over 30 is not going to happen. Beane could have traded for Rasmus when he traded Harden but the Cards wanted Sweeney and Beane wouldn’t give him up. I think Beane likes the nucleus of players he has now and will try to upgrade on 3B and maybe even SS.

Every time I read these articles I wonder what BB thinks. Many don’t like Crosby or our current replacements for SS or even 2B but I have a feeling that BB figures one of the bunch he has in AAA and AA will fit in at both positiions.

So, how do we trade for a quality young 3B and maybe a good SS as a throw in. In the offseason we will still have Duke to dangle, sounds like a fishing story with your dangling duke. Anyway, the most likely to go in a trade are current older veterans not the guys BB has just traded for.

...cheering Frank Thomas over Barry Bonds.

And even if Frank only plays in 1/3 of the games, I think having him in the clubhouse is an immense help for the young guys. Now, we just need to figure out who inherits the rebar.

I could see Beane signing Juan Rivera (Angels) and/or Jason Giambi to a FA Deals. Rivera could platoon w/ R.Sweeney / Buck / Cust. Giambi as insurance for 1B/DH. Otherwise, I just don’t see Beane sticking his nose into large FA deals in October/November of 2008.

Juan Rivera

There’s really nothing in the A’s recent history to suggest that signing an impact-type free agent would even be a consideration. If this were the tail end of the rebuilding process, say 2010, then maybe, but even then I’d be doubtful. Signing anybody of that caliber for 2009 would be a waste of money for 2009 as the team would not be in a position to benefit fully… to hear many who buy into the rebuilding schedule hook-line-and-sinker tell it.

The A’s (Beane’s era, give or take) has been to sometimes try and retain their own impact-type free agents, i.e. Chavez, Dye, Giambi (didn’t re-sign, but they did try), etc., and to fill holes inexpensively with declining players who may still have a good year or two left in them.

Keep the money until we really need an impact player, and then go out and actually get one that matters. Not many of those names are too impressive. When you think about it, if Buck comes back and he’s healthy and Barton can get the monkey off his back and hits even halfway to his potential, the A’s will probably still be able to compete next year even with Hannahan and Crosby swinging lead pipes.

in the same lineup…..though it would be interesting to see how many times all three homer or walk or strike out in the same inning. They’d be the TTOakland A’s or something. The problem would be that all three in a lineup means Cust and Giambi are wearing gloves. Besides, Giambi strikes me as overspend type of free agent, where the risk and sentiment won’t justify the reward. So I say stick with Cust and bring back Frank.

I’m also not a fan of overloading a lineup with the patient hitters. Part of what made A’s teams successful in the past was the mix of patient and aggressive hitters in the lineup. Now it’s almost like the A’s have developed a walk-first mentality, and I wish they were a little less selective with runners on base.

I’d like to see the A’s make offers to Crede and Furcal. It’d be nice to once again have a legit lead-off hitter who can piss off the opposing battery. And it would be nice to have a 3B who can provide 20-30 homer power from the right side.

Mazzaro - 3.42 (counting both Midland and Sacramento)
Simmons - 4.66

Fun with MLE ERALF (supposedly the same as DIPS) from Baseball Prospectus (Regular Translation)

Mazzaro - 4.15 (Midland only)
Simmons - 4.89

OK Mazzaro’s HR/Fly probably isn’t sustainable, and this may turn out to be a career year for him, but there’s still a lot to recommend him over Simmons.

If SS Furcal could be got for 1-2 years i say get him. Trade B Crosby if needed but Frucal until this year has been healthy for his career. In the spirit of the E Brown signing this year I would bring in OF B Giles, to satatify Beanes desire to get him and provide a leader for the younger guys (but he should be tested for drugs once a week the entire year). Plus if it would help get B Giles cheaper sign 2B Marcus Giles to a minor league deal and see if he has anything left and as insurance for the departure of Ellis, who i think will be back so he can be a part of the extended winning that the A’s are building towards. These signings would be decent and up grade several areas for the A’s. Also these players could be coming off the books about the time the A’s are reall