When Losing Pays Off - Steven Strasburg

by notsellingjeans on Aug 11, 2008 12:07 AM PDT Comment 37 comments

For our NBA fans out there, do you remember the 1996-97 season? The Spurs suffered season-ending injuries to David Robinson and Sean Elliot and tumbled all the way to a 20-62 record.

I'm sure it was a miserable time for their fans - similar to what many A's fans are feeling right now. But the Spurs ended up receiving the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, and fortunately, that was a great year year to have the No. 1 overall, because there was a consensus No. 1 overall pick that year, a franchise-changer: Tim Duncan, perhaps the last great four-years-of-college player. Duncan has since led the Spurs to four titles and been named to 11 all-NBA teams.

It's an admittedly far from perfect analogy, for an elite basketball player can have a greater impact on his game than a baseball player can to be sure. But what I'm getting at here is that the A's of '08 are spiraling toward a top-5 pick in next year's draft themselves, and there just so happens to be a guy who might be the consensus No. 1 overall pick in next June's draft as well.

As the Spurs of 1997 can attest (or the Rays with David Price in '07), that's a good time to have the No. 1 overall pick - not in a Kwame Brown year, but in a Tim Duncan year. When the stats and the scouts and all 30 franchises agree that this guy's as close to a sure thing as it gets.

The 2009 MLB Draft might end up being a year with one of those consensus No. 1 players - Steven Strasburg of San Diego State.

And since it appears A's fans will inevitably be watching sub-.500 baseball for the remainder of the year, I thought it would be fun to look at something a little more tangible than our usual "we'll get a top-10 pick next year." That thought is more inspiring than picking at No. 12 and taking Jemile Weeks, but it'd be more interesting if we could actually put an exciting name, face, and stats to it.

So, who exactly is this elite amateur talent that might be procured with a top-3 A's draft pick next year? Strasburg is a 6'5", 215-pound righty who dominated the NCAA this year as a sophomore for the Aztecs. His fastball has reportedly reached 99 and his slider is equally dominant. One great indicator of his talent is the fact that he's the only amateur on the USA Baseball Olympic roster.

Here's a video link to Strasburg's 23 strikeout game earlier this season, and here's a short article that Dave Cameron of fangraphs wrote about him earlier this year.

Not only does Strasburg have the tools, but he measures up better than anyone in the country statistically, too. As I'm writing this, unfortunately the SDSU athletics website is down, so I can't access the stats I'd like to and I'm going from memory. (Perhaps someone can help me out in the comments with the official numbers from '08 and '07). But we're talking about an unheard-of-for-Divison I-baseball ERA of 1.74 in a full season as a starter, better than 10 K's per nine innings, and only 16 walks (IIRC) in an entire season! That's Mark Prior at USC-type dominance...and Strasburg did this in only his sophomore year.

I realize many ANers might be thinking, "We already have enough pitching! We need a an elite hitter!" But if Strasburg stays healthy and dominant in '09 and emerges as the next David Price - a consensus No. 1 overall - I think any team would be thrilled to have him. When a consensus No. 1 comes around, it's probably best to take him and let the positions sort themselves out later, even if you're stocked at that position. Just ask the Spurs.

Anyways, something to discuss during the down times. Looking at an actual, tangible, terrific player who could one day be in an A's uniform is a hell of lot more exciting for me than some vague, fuzzy concept of a top-10 pick next year.

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Pitching

Although I agree we have enough pitching, what you can never have enough of is elite pitching.

We’ve all seen what having three ace caliber pitchers on a staff can do, and also the return they can bring if for whatever reason you can’t retain them. I think if you find a guy that will be an almost sure future ace you do whatever you can to get him, whether that be paying an international free agent an all time high signing bonus or sacrificing your first round pick.

Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.

by Threepwood XX on Aug 11, 2008 12:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I realize many ANers might be thinking, “We already have enough pitching! We need a an elite hitter!” But if Strasburg stays healthy and dominant in ‘09 and emerges as the next David Price – a consensus No. 1 overall – I think any team would be thrilled to have him.

No. Many ANers are thinking “what on earth makes you think the A’s will get one of the top 3 draft picks this year.” They are thinking: “what is the point of this article, given that the A’s chances of landing Strasburg are in the realm of 0%?” They are thinking, “some lucky team, not the A’s, will land Strasburg, who is a great pitcher.” What on earth is the point of this article? Strasburg is the consensus #1 pick. Ok, you saved someone from looking that up…

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Aug 11, 2008 12:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Sometimes there is a signability issue, and a number 1 falls

to a number 5. There is always the Boris factor. So, you never know, the A’s might have
a crack at him.

Mike O'Dowd

by Mikko O on Aug 11, 2008 12:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

what about the Natasha factor?

And does Mike Mussina have anything to do with their dastardly machinations?

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 11, 2008 7:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I realize that's what you are thinking Mike, and I understand it

But some people will be interested to read about Strasburg, for the reasons posted in the article. Unlike a vague concept of a future top-5 or top-10 pick, he’s tangible, and fun to hope for.

I think you’re mimicking of Mikko below might’ve been an attempt to mock him (if not, I do apologize), but he makes a valid point. Wieters fell to No. 5 just last year and he was better than the fifth overall talent.

It’s also too premature to say that Strasburg is the consensus #1 pick. He may be, by June ‘09, and that’s the word that I used in my article. He’s worth writing about now because of what he’s accomplished so far. A minor injury or mediocre performance could knock him down a few slots easily, and put him in the range that you and xbh and many others expect the A’s to be drafting.

I personally think the A’s may be drafting pretty close to No. 1. They’ve won 3 of their last 22 games, and the remaining August schedule is still brutal. I think they may end up finishing in the bottom 3, and I don’t think they’ll finish better than fourth. I realize bottom 3 would require the Padres, Nationals, or Mariners to play much better the rest of the way, but two of those three were considered playoff contenders entering this season. An August-September rally isn’t out of the question for them. Unfortunately, neither is a continued stretch of horrible baseball for the A’s.

"Innings eater? Depends on whether you want delicious innings or burnt, moldy innings. Kirk Saarloos is the Hot Pockets of inning eaters." - Gallagher's Watermelons

by notsellingjeans on Aug 11, 2008 6:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes strasburg could drop a few slots due to injury or bad performance. but he could also drop to like #20 or out of the first round for those same reasons, couldn’t he?

two of the padres, nationals, and mariners were considered playoff contenders by who, you? BP had them at 79, 73, and 76 wins.
also, those are just the bottom 3 teams, the a’s would also have to do worse than the orioles, royals, indians, pirates, reds, rockies, and giants. that’s 10 teams. again, it could happen, but what do you think the probability of that is?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Aug 11, 2008 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

so, what you're saying is ...

... Beane should have kept Harden and Blanton, traded pitching prospects for Manny and LaRoche, the A’s could have won the World Series, and we still could have gotten Strasburg?

Damn yoo Billee Bean!!!

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 11, 2008 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you mean hardin?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Aug 11, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK,

yeah, I was too harsh there.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Aug 11, 2008 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sometimes

when times are tough a pitcher (pun intended) of yummy kool-aid is just the thing to make you feel better. my complaint about the “plan” starts with the same question…”what are the chances?” if we are going to dream, why not dream big???

by cvdoug on Aug 11, 2008 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strasberg is a hell of a talent

I covered the Aztecs last year (Strasberg’s freshman year), and the coaches have had nothing but praise for him. Because the entire rotation got drafted, they bumped him up to the rotation and he was dominating game in and game out. He was one of the leaders in the country in ERA, as I recall.

by JLaff on Aug 11, 2008 12:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's a guy that seems like an A's pick...

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Dustin-Ackley.shtml

OMG OBP MONEYBALL

"A’s baseball….It’s almost better than a stick in the eye." ~ alox

by Gallagher's Watermelons on Aug 11, 2008 1:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah

except he plays first base and has no power. hey, sounds like daric barton

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Aug 11, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do he and his average both take unfortunate dives?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 11, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

rimshot

by flipgatey3 on Aug 12, 2008 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

what is the point of this?

what are the chances the a’s finish with a worse w-l record than the mariners, nationals, AND padres?

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Aug 11, 2008 1:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Sometimes there is a signability issue, and a number 1 falls

to a number 5. There is always the Boris factor. So, you never know, the A’s might have a crack at him.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Aug 11, 2008 1:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

damn, meant as reply to xbx

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Aug 11, 2008 1:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Aug 11, 2008 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's all very interesting, but

you will never get me to root for the A’s to lose.

Even if on Sept 28, the A’s and Mariners are tied for last place in the majors, I will still root for the A’s to win and settle for the #2 draft pick.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Aug 11, 2008 1:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm a bad fan

..cause in that scenario, I’d take the loss. As long as Ziggy pitches his 60th straight scoreless inning.

I generally bemoan the profusion of Mr Sabermetric Sporks in the Scrabble ranks who don't know the meaning or usage of 50% of the words they use. -monkeyball

by JediLeroy on Aug 11, 2008 2:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not a chance the A's Sink this Low

This is a fanstasy post. Strasberg is the consensus number one pick. The A’s are not as horrific as the Mariners. The M’s are even behind the Nationals for the number one pick.

Strasberg will not slip past the M's because even a blind squirrel can find some nuts, and the M's are blind, and stupid, but not THAT stupid.

by hokecole on Aug 11, 2008 8:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What might be more exciting than pining for Strasberg,

knowing he’ll actually be snatched by someone else, is to look at who are five really appealing matches for the A’s who might fall as far as #8-#10 or so – wherever you think the A’s might wind up. Is there a slugging 3Bman who might be a “fast track” candidate? Is there a SS with plus defense who can also hit for average? Is there a LaPorta-type masher whose lack of defense might scare teams away but who has .300/30/100 potential?

I’d be interested in seeing such a list so I can follow those guys as the draft unfolds and decide who I’m rooting for to be drafted when.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 11, 2008 10:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Aug 11, 2008 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

why are you attacking notsellingjeans?

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 11, 2008 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because I want jeans and he's not selling them.

I especially want Jean Tenace and Jean O’Petralli.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 11, 2008 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Would that qualify as a Jean-On-Jean Offense?

There were a lot of stupid, long confusing words that I’m sure normal people don’t use. @('.')@

by monkeyball on Aug 11, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Many people are saying this is a fantasy post

But nothing can top this one:

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2008/7/20/575122/the-final-sell-off-how-the

by RLangford on Aug 11, 2008 11:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What about the one where we acquire

Jose Lima’s wife, Jamie Kotsay, and a bimbo to be named later, all for the rather average-looking Chris Carter? Think of it this way: With this deal, if I’d be happy just to hit ONE homerun.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 11, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can live with watching sub-.500 baseball the rest of the season...

...as long as there is at least reasonable hope it’s building toward something better in the future, but I’m not up for watching .200 baseball for the rest of the season.

"If I've got baggage, he's got a whole set of Louis Vuitton." ~ Milton Bradley on Barry Bonds

by UncleLeo on Aug 11, 2008 12:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I've been watching .100 baseball for the past few weeks

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 12, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lookout Landing and the Strasberg debacle

I’ve got some connections around San Diego, and from what has been passed to me (and that is as much info as I can safely mention, without friendship repercussions) I think Strasberg has his heart set on playing for the Padres, much like John Elway did not want to play for the Colts as the Colts’ number one pick. He plays for “Mr. Padre” Tony Gwynn and his favorite player is Jake Peavy. He grew up in Santee (I think) and has lived in San Diego his whole life, and it is not as if he’s looking for the money to buy his parents/mom a house, as someone from Backwoods, Mississippi might desire to do. Money is a lesser motivator in this case. So far… (I’m not sitting at their kitchen table 8^d).

Whenever the Mariners are losing, the LL denizens write “Strasberg!!” to attempt to salve their wounds. In my opinion, I would NEVER like that kind of attitude to infect the Athletics AN site. When I rebutted one of those “Strasberg!” messages, saying he’d skip the draft before the Mariners got him, that he wants the Padres, I was told to “knock it off” or get banned. Twice!

Am I banned?? Who knows? As of today all I know about LL is that it is okay to insult someone personally, like JI did to me, and continue on their foul-mouthed ways. But, say something that breaks into their fantasy…”banned!”

Reality: Yesterday is gone, and the future never gets here.

Whatever is happening game day, in my opinion, let’s stick with that game, and never, EVER, consider the “happy” consequences of losing. The future is only that. The future. And may not arrive…

“You want to make God laugh? Tell him your plans!”

just read this Wayne Estes story:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wayne_Estes

"I never predict anything, and I never will." Paul Gascoigne, English footballer

by One won lost won on Aug 11, 2008 3:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

well he’ll probably get his wish, the padres may be even worse than the mariners.

whether you turn out to be right or not, it’s a bit thuggish for LL to threaten you with a ban if you were explaining why that may be the case as opposed to saying that just to be a troll.

hopefully jeff or someone else from lookoutlanding will comment on this…

A's v Giants "is kind of like the difference between going to see the Ramones and going to see the Bee Gees. A's fans will go see the Ramones." -BB 07/27/05

by xbhaskarx on Aug 11, 2008 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's what really happened, from an LL poster.

This person posted a couple of times on one of our threads that Strasburg would sooner skip the draft than sign with the Nationals or Mariners. (I am an M’s and Nats fan, FWIW.) It was done purely to be antagonistic, without any of the context he is now providing, and the same post was repeated several times a la spam.

Moreover, it is utterly preposterous. “One won lost won” is apparently so tuned into Strasburg’s thoughts on this matter that he can’t even spell his name correctly. Additionally, the idea that Strasburg would refuse to sign as the #1 draft pick, and thus lose the massive signing bonus and fasttrack career path and risk the chance of falling significantly the next time around, is absurd. Utterly absurd. Nobody expected the Padres to be anywhere NEAR to having a chance to pick him #1 in 2009 – they were one game away from the playoffs last year – and the idea that anyone would be planning on this contingency is a laughable bit of retrospective logic. Strasburg will go where he is drafted to go. “But oh noes!” you say, “the Mariners and Nationals are horrible franchises? Who would ever want to sign with them?” Don’t be foolish: this never stopped the Rays’ #1 draft picks from signing with them.

In summary, “One won lost won” was an ignorant poster posting a theory that he could not possibly have believed in – because it is so facially absurd that nobody could advance it save in bad faith – and he did so in a forum where he was guaranteed to provoke an angry response. The only reason he posted it was to make us feel bad, to piss in the figurative beer we were drinking to console ourselves. In point of fact, he didn’t even GET that much of an angry response: a couple of posters made fun of him and that was that. It’s amazing that he still cares about this, but I’m glad I have the opportunity to set the record straight.

"Maybe Chief has to go and grab somebody from his neck and throw him into the wall."

by esoteric on Aug 11, 2008 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...I've carefully considered both sides

and concluded that I don’t really give a s—-.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Aug 11, 2008 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is a valid position.

"Maybe Chief has to go and grab somebody from his neck and throw him into the wall."

by esoteric on Aug 11, 2008 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strasburg's numbers

(The San Diego State athletic website is back up again, apologies for not having these in the article).

Here are his freshman year stats, when he allowed 4.4 hits per 9 and had a 47/15 K to walk ratio in 37 relief innings.

And here are his full stats from his sophomore year in ‘08, in which he started 13 games, pitched 97.1 innings, boasted a 133-16 K to walk ratio, and allowed only 61 hits.

And here’s his player bio from the team website.

"Innings eater? Depends on whether you want delicious innings or burnt, moldy innings. Kirk Saarloos is the Hot Pockets of inning eaters." - Gallagher's Watermelons

by notsellingjeans on Aug 12, 2008 1:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs