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A Different Look at Sean Gallagher

Tiny by ACB on Comment 245 comments

 

Hi, I'm visiting from Cub land and thought I would give our view of the best piece you guys got in this trade. Personally, I cant believe some of the stuff I've read here today about how Gallagher sucks ect ect. Some of these opinions even backed with his W-L and ERA. This is A's land- the home of Moneyball and it surprises me that people cant realize the guy is 22 and if you watch him you can see pretty quick he is going to be special. But enough about judging by your eyes take a look at his minor league #'s. His career down there is much better than another more famous Cubs pitcher a Mr. Carlos Zambrano and they both broke into the major league at a similar age. How many prospects dominate the minors at a young age for every level and then make the bigs? The kid isnt Tim Lincecum but writing him off as a 5th starter at the age of 22 is just plain stupid.

A cubs blog wrote a piece awhile back that is about Gallagher and his career and breaking down one of his performances pitch by pitch. You can take a look if you want but its kind of long.

Basically, I think you guys did get a good young pitcher and I would have much rather have traded Vitters than Gallagher. Pitchers who make to the bigs this early (with justification) are hard to come by and you guys are going to be pleasantly surprised with him imo.

Anyway, enjoy your new pitcher because he is a good one and hopefully the trade works out for both teams.

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Pitchers who make to the bigs this early (with justification) are hard to come by and you guys are going to be pleasantly surprised with him imo.

Hey I know two guys like that. Their names are Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin.

I only have a signature because I recognize everyone else by their sigs, not their usernames..

by lmaozedong on Jul 8, 2008 10:14 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hey

all i’m saying is that Gallagher is a good pitcher and the #’s back me up. I didnt say Harden and Gaudin suck or anything

by ACB on Jul 8, 2008 10:19 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You see, what we're really mad about isn't that it was Rich Harden for Gallager, Murton, Patterson and the .220 Catcher

its that Gaudin was included! Gaudin, we all believe at least, is as good as Gallager, and was the ideal pitcher to replace Harden in the rotation once he was traded. He was only in the Bullpen because everyone besides Blanton was pitching very well and there wasn’t enough room, and the AN Consensus is that Gaudin is better than Blanton.

If it was Harden for the package, we’d be dissapointed but content, but with Gaudin included its a fleece for the Cubs.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Jul 8, 2008 10:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

5 years

of gallagher for 1.5 of harden alone would be a steal for the A’s. Murton and Patterson and Donaldson are prolly for Gaudin. personally I think Murton sucks but Patterson was supposed to be a 2B but got moved to the OF after we landed DeRosa and drafted Tony Thomas. If you move him back to 2B he will be a decent starter there.

by ACB on Jul 8, 2008 10:29 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Except if he moves to 2B, he'll probably end up on the DL

after suffering mysterious wounds that resemble a unicorn horn…

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Jul 9, 2008 12:17 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

fun...

the Cubs-oriented people seem to think Murton sucks, and a lot of the A’s-oriented people think that the Cubs have mistreated Murton and he has the potential to shine in the laid-back atmosphere in Oakland.

Personally, I wish the trade was Harden for Gallagher and Murton and keep the other guys. We’ll miss Gaudin a lot.

"All managers are losers, they are the most expendable pieces of furniture on the face of the Earth."- Ted Williams

by Gaijin_Suketto on Jul 9, 2008 10:28 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

murton

hits more weak grounders han any OF i have ever seen.

by ACB on Jul 9, 2008 10:49 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you never saw our old friend Ben GIDP Grieve, did you?

...one Japanese woman standing in the lobby surrounded by Red Sox fans turned to her companion and said, "These Boston people are awful." -Slusser

by stormtown on Jul 9, 2008 11:32 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You sure you're not thinking of Kendall?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 9, 2008 11:33 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He did have a few...

most notably Kurt Suzuki’s big league debut. Which the A’s lost to the Astros in extra innings when Kendall couldn’t throw out a runner at home (natch).

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 10, 2008 9:18 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's easy to be a critic

When you have Soriano and Fukudome

Somewhat harder when you have DFA getting regular playing time

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 11:00 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not a doubter

I like Gallagher. After cooling off, I think Gallagher will end up being alot better than people think. I also think he’ll impress against the Angels on Friday.
I think!

"That Crosby kid, as well as that Chavez guy, suck." - my Grandfather
Currently Listening: Kanye West - Graduation; In Flames - A Sense of Purpose.

by Morgasm on Jul 8, 2008 10:23 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As

a guy who has seen every inning Gallagher has pitched this year I can give you a rough scouting report

His fastball is by far his best pitch. It runs from 92-95 and tops out at 96. He can locate to both sides and gets both NL and AL teams to swing through it. Where he gets into trouble is leaving his slider and curve up in the zone. Lou really liked the kid but his one gripe was that when Gallagher gets ahead he wouldnt throw his breaking stuff down and away but would try and throw them down the middle and at this point neither pitch is good enough to do that.

He works well in pressure situations and has always been labeled a “competitor” for whatever thats worth.

by ACB on Jul 8, 2008 10:28 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree,

I’ve watched him all year longalso and have nothing to add to your very good scouting report ACB. This is one Cubs fan who is sad to see Gallagher go. He is going to win a lot of ballgames in his career and I wish him and the A’s all the success in the world. Watch Patterson too for he is going to be a fine ballplayer. Billy Beane is no fool…. he has his eye on the future.

"My favorite umpire is a dead one."
-Johnny Evers

by MiCubsFan on Jul 9, 2008 5:42 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd be shocked if Patterson plays more than 50 games with the A's

And most of those will probably Rajai-style pinch running appearances.

The guy can’t hit and can’t play defense. He only stays here if Ellis is traded and they need a stopgap until they can get an actual major leaguer to play second.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 9, 2008 11:50 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

On what do you base the claim that Patterson can't hit.

It certainly isn’t statistics.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Jul 10, 2008 8:26 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Starting Rotation

ACB, Thanks for chiming in. Our starting rotation is in a yearly state of flux & with Gallagher we just got younger. We are very fortunate with the ascent of J. Duke, Eveland & Smith. Gaudin has been our defacto long relief / fill-in guy. He was good insurance & gave us some depth. Harden has complained of a “dead arm” his past two starts, with the velocity of his fastball topping out at 91, compared to the consistent 97 MPH he was throwing earlier. Unless he’s just winded & his arm springs back, he might be headed back to the DL.
IMO, Gallagher is going to be pleasant surprise for us. No issues, he just lacks consistency & experience. I believe our pitching coach ; Curt Young is going to like what he sees. I would have been happy to just get Vitters & Gallagher for Harden & Gaudin. The other three / Murton, Patterson & Donaldson remind me of fillers.
I honestly believe Beane & Forst thought this was the best they could do. This appears to have been discussed between the Cubs & the A’s for the past month. I also believe he does these trades so other GM’s aren’t afraid to deal with him. Your Cubbies got the better end of this trade. Beane is setting up another deal for down the road. We will miss Harden & Gaudin. We wish them the best.

by alpine26 on Jul 8, 2008 11:01 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What happened here?

It is disappointing to read all the uninformed reactions here to a deal like this. The expectations were lofty to say the least. AN’s unseemly love for Gaudin is amusing as well. The overall tone of posters here complain about Beane acquring too much pitching?? Wha? I don’t think that has ever been a problem for a ML team. I’m no fan of Beane and don’t bleed Green and Gold anymore, but as a Baseball fan, this is clearly a good deal for both sides. Harden will be so pumped pitching in front of rabid Wrigley fans, his arm will burst off. He will enjoy a celebrity lifestyle he could never imagine in Oakland. I enjoyed reading your in-depth pitch by ptich on Gallagher’s stuff. I think we got quality in all four players, especially Patterson who fills an important post-Ellis role. Again, Harden will be pumped and Chicago is going to love this guy.

"We're Menudo," -BB

by eshock on Jul 8, 2008 11:04 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

except

that patterson is already 25 and can’t play defense.

but i see what you are saying. kinda.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 8, 2008 11:55 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and except that Harden's arm already has burst off...

...multiple times…

"All managers are losers, they are the most expendable pieces of furniture on the face of the Earth."- Ted Williams

by Gaijin_Suketto on Jul 9, 2008 10:30 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The moment Harden hits the DL

this deal will look good. It will happen before Sept 2009, probably before Sept 2008.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 9, 2008 10:33 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But how good will it look, really?

I wouldn’t trade Gaudin for Gallagher straight up. I think Patterson and Donaldson are useless throw-ins.

So basically the Cubs would have gotten Gaudin for Gallagher and Murton. I dunno, that seems about even to me. I don’t think people realize how good a healthy Gaudin is.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 9, 2008 11:51 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i'm sorry

but that’s nonsense.

Please take a deep breath and think about what you’re saying.

Donaldson was drafted a year ago, and had great success last year. He’s a real prospect.

In no universe would the Cubs trade Gallagher for Gaudin straight up.

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 12:00 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Exactly.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 9, 2008 12:12 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And I wouldn't trade Gaudin for Gallagher straight up

Why are you overvaluing Gallagher and undervaluing Gaudin so much.

Donaldson is 22 and can’t hit in A ball. He’s set to repeat the league next year, at age 23, unless he has a huge second half for (I’m guessing) Kane County. A 23 year old at Kane County isn’t much of a prospect, I don’t care when he was drafted.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 9, 2008 12:27 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What has Gaudin even done?

Gaudin is 26. Gaudin has a track record only slightly better than Gallagher in the majors.
you can’t project much improvement in Gaudin- What you see is what you get- He’s had 3 years to develop in the majors, and more in the minors before that.

Gallagher is 22(!) I can’t believe you cite age as a factor when dismissing Donaldson, and then in the same breath, compare a 26 year old with a volatile track record to a 22 year old who spent 80 innings in AAA and broke into the majors at 21.

You’re a smart guy, I like your posts…try to step back for just one second. Gallagher was in the BA top 100, and he’s a solid, young, reasonable upside pitcher.

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 12:53 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, he pitched 200 innings last year

the first half he was fantastic, the second half he was hurt and (predictably) not as good.

He was also misused by Tampa and Toronto.

by mikev on Jul 9, 2008 1:25 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's 23 at Kane County because he was drafted out of college

As to his struggles, I see your cynicism and raise you “small sample size”

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 12:57 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're the one over/undervaluing

Gallagher is 22 and is projected to be a lock in the starting rotation. He is a perfectly fine #5 currently and has been projected anywhere in the 2-4 range. Gaudin hasn’t had a full starting job except last year, and he put up very similar numbers to Gallagher’s numbers this year. The pitcher-friendly park effect of your ball park pretty much cancel out the NL-AL differences and Wrigley is a hitter’s ballpark. Gallagher is worth much more than Gaudin because he has a reasonable chance to become a #2 starter and is at worst a 3/4. He is pretty much a lock to definitely be in the starting rotation in his career. Gaudin isn’t a lock at age 26

by ecbc on Jul 9, 2008 1:06 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It has for the A's,

given that our extraordinary pitching can’t win when the offense gets shut out.

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Jul 9, 2008 12:19 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

QOTM Nominee

In the “I Need to Go Cry Now” Division.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 9, 2008 2:52 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thank you, ACB

I trust what you’ve seen as a Cubs fan watching his progression, and from what I’ve read online about him so far, this looks like a good trade for us.

Harden would have been gone after next year, and unless we’re on track to win the WS this year or next, plus his injury history, why not pull the trigger on this deal?

I think Gallagher will put up very good numbers in Oakland. It is A LOT tougher to pitch in Wrigley than the Colesium.

His fastball is 90-95 and he can paint the black with it. He has an excellent curveball as well. His change up is coming along.

I think this is a very nice pick up for the A’s rebuilding process.

2009:
Duchscherer
Eveland
Smith
Gallagher
Cahill
Anderson
Gonzalez

So many options!

Simmons is continuing to develop as well. Fausto De Los Santos, super talented, will be working his way up the chain, as will Inoa.

Wow….

by BillMoresi on Jul 8, 2008 11:05 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You forgot..

HRod.. Mazzaro…Leon…Italiano..

Pitching is set.

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on Jul 8, 2008 11:28 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also, Inoa.

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Jul 9, 2008 8:57 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know-a.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jul 9, 2008 9:37 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Blanton

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 9, 2008 10:08 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

fautino

not fausto. but good list, even better with the guys syphon added

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 8, 2008 11:56 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

fautino? fausto?

Faustino?

"All managers are losers, they are the most expendable pieces of furniture on the face of the Earth."- Ted Williams

by Gaijin_Suketto on Jul 9, 2008 10:33 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can we get some infield talents please

i mean we got all this young talented pitching but wheres the SS and 3B prospects Chavez is getting brittle and Crosby just isnt what we thought he would be….....

Maybe Billy is planning on trading this young pitching talent for young hitting talent maybe…..

In Billy I trust!

Brandon Marshall is a BEAST!!!!

by TommyTSlice on Jul 8, 2008 11:34 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thank you ABC

I appreciate the post and the link to your blog about Gallagher.

by jamesc on Jul 8, 2008 11:38 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Here's my problem with Gallagher:

The A’s have him already. Except his name is James Simmons and he has plus-plus control instead of average control.

I can’t figure out how Gallagher fits into any putative A’s rotation from 2010 on as more than the fifth starter. He’s a luxury commodity (a solid fifth starter) for a team that can’t afford one.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 8, 2008 11:43 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Actually, let me correct myself

The abysmal PECOTA forecast is another problem.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 8, 2008 11:46 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep

That’s what scares the crap out of me

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 6:16 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why

Why is PECOTA so down on Gallagher? Too many walks?

by Colorado Fan on Jul 9, 2008 8:21 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dunno

PECOTA is a complex projection system (note: no guarantee it’ll be accurate) that uses other players’ performance to project the future.

All I can say is that it hates him.

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 8:28 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re

I can’t remember where I read this, it was months ago, but I recall that PECOTA supposedly doesn’t like Gallagher because of his wretched control in AA, and because of his stocky build. I hope I’m not confusing him with somebody else, but that’s what I recall.

Anyway, I’m not worried about it. PECOTA is based on similarity scores, and it’s not going to account for things like Gallagher getting the benefit of Oakland’s coaching, or being able to learn in such a forgiving environment. The A’s have done a lot with guys far less talented than Gallagher. This is a kid who throws hard, struck out a lot of guys in the minors (and is doing well in the bigs), didn’t give up a lot of hits, and was very very good in preventing home runs. His control has also been well above average save for his first stint in AA. Whatever I think of the deal overall, I’m excited by this kid. I think he has a real chance to be the best pitcher in the rotation by the second half of 09.

by 31Boots on Jul 9, 2008 9:00 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

like what?

have you seen the kid, btw?

by 31Boots on Jul 9, 2008 9:16 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Like the rest of the pitchers will be worse than Gallagher

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 9, 2008 10:09 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if PECOTA "weighs" his physique ...

... then the fact that he’s dropped 35 pounds should mitigate their downer of a projection.

... arousing men to burst the chains under which monkeyish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 9, 2008 9:46 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Weight

his stocky build is a thing of the past. Over the off season he got hooked up wtih a nutrition company by Kerry Wood. Whatever diet they use it works as Wood, Soto and Gallagher have all dropped 20 + pounds and raved about it

by ACB on Jul 9, 2008 9:58 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, let's hope he introduces it to the A's

Specifically, Joe Blanton.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 10:00 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Soto

thinks its the reason he suddenly became a super talent. He was too heavy to turn on the inside pitches and he started with the company in 2007 when he destroyed AAA

by ACB on Jul 9, 2008 10:03 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Krukow called him

“the real deal!”. I can’t stand him on telecasts but the man does know pitching and you have to respect that.

Also, yesterday, I heard Jim Hendry on the radio stating that he “absolutely did not want to part with Gallagher, but Billy was not gonna budge and insisted that Sean be part of the deal. So I finally had to pull the trigger because wee really wanted to get Rich Harden to Chicago.”

That’s what my ears witnessed…...

by mrod on Jul 9, 2008 10:03 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PECOTA hates virtually every pitching prospect

It basically assumes that not only will no pitcher improve after age 22, but that pitchers will fall off bit by bit each year after that due to injury risk.

The same thing goes whether it’s Kershaw, Jurrjens, Gio, Smith, or Bailey.

by Danny on Jul 9, 2008 12:35 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PECOTA is down on a *lot* of young pitchers

Look at the forecast for Chad Billingsley and then tell me how much weight you’d give it in your analysis of Billingsley.

I’m a huge fan of PECOTA, but it does have it’s limitations…it’s forecasts are not gospel.

Parental Advisory - Explicit Content

by Jivas on Jul 9, 2008 1:06 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess Billy is going with the..

Never have to much pitching. This frees him up to deal someone for a bat or insurance for some prospects that dont work out.

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on Jul 9, 2008 12:00 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you might

have a wealth of SP now but things happen, people dont pan out, injuries occur, beane might use some as ammo when he is ready to make a run.

i would think after all these years you guys would have faith in beane, god knows i would love to have him working for us.

it will be interesting to see how this deal works out and hopefully it does for both squads- but you cant pigeonhole Gallagher as a 5th starter when he hasnt thrown 100 IP in the bigs as a 22 year old.

by ACB on Jul 9, 2008 7:57 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's got a point

Instead of having to trot out Jason Windsor, Shane Komine, and Lenny DiNardo after an inevitable injury to our starting 5, we can now trot out Dallas Braden, Kirk Saarloos, Lenny DiNardo, Dan Meyer…

Oh, shit.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 9, 2008 2:55 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

heres my opinion

of what u guys got:

gallagher--dependable #3 starter
murton-at his best .305 hitter with 15 hr’s,65-70 rbi’s, 180 hits, avg at best defense
patterson-bad attitude,over value’s himself-maybe a descent 2b!!
donaldson—anyone’s guess

Dear SBnation, We need our own server here at BCB seeing how its became very slow due to enormous amounts of traffic. P.S. Impeach Bud Selig!!!

by cubsluver22 on Jul 8, 2008 11:52 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And you think that's a good return

for a guy who is a top 5 talent in baseball, but injury prone, and ANOTHER guy who will be at least as good as Gallagher in the NL?

by mikev on Jul 9, 2008 7:46 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Question

Will Rich Harden start more or less than 20 games this season? I think it’s funny that everyone is so confident of Rich Harden’s health now that he’s gone. We get none of these guys if/when Harden goes down again this season. Gaudin was the Insurance Policy to secure the deal.

by Colorado Fan on Jul 9, 2008 8:25 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The 2 best players in the trade went to Chicago.

Obviously Chicago thought Harden was healthy enough to make the deal.

by mikev on Jul 9, 2008 8:28 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think there's no question Gallagher is more valuable than Gaudin

And I’m fairly down on Gallgher.

He’s got a ton of service time left, and Gaudin isn’t exactly a super-star

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 8:31 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Neither is Gallagher.

He’s basically a league average NL pitcher (101 ERA+)

Move him to the AL, and even being helped by pitching at the Coliseum I think he’s the 5th starter on the team this season, and it’s not likely that he beats out guys like Gio, Cahill, or even Smith and Eveland next season either.

by mikev on Jul 9, 2008 8:44 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Right

And he’s 22 and basically free (unlike Gaudin)

If you can get the same stats from a younger cheaper pitcher, the latter is more valuable.

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 8:50 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not a fan of the trade because I thought we had excellent chances this year

But Gallagher will be better than Gaudin.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Jul 9, 2008 8:58 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They have almost exactly the same career WHIP

And although Gallagher played in the NL, Wrigley is one of the most hitting friendly parks in baseball so his ERA is almost certainly higher than it would have been if he pitched here all year.

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 9:05 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gaudin > Gallagher

You can make an argument based on age and cost, but not actual perforamnce. Gaudin is a better pitcher in a tougher league. What’s so tough to grasp about that?

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 9, 2008 11:56 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tougher league yes, but easier situation

Wrigley Field is one of the worst places to pitch in MLB, and the Cubs don’t have our defense. This more than cancels out the league change effect.

Also, value includes age/potential/control/and salary.

Gaudin’s ERA is better, his WHIP isn’t. He hasn’t been good out of the bullpen.

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 12:03 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, Gaudin should be the Cubs' #3 starter

They’re not using him right by putting him in the bullpen.

Gaudin’s WHIP IS better, or are you looking at his numbers from when with Tampa and Toronto and including that?

It’s possible that the park effects will cancel out the better league. Gaudin is still, at worst, equal to Gallagher in talent. And that’s what I’ve been talking about the entire time. He doesn’t make enough to make some sort of salary argument.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 9, 2008 12:32 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BUT GALLAGHER IS 22

for all we know, he’s going to add some velocity,

or at minimum, in 3 years, don’t you think he’s going to improve his control?

Put it this way- Dan Johnson hit better than Barton has, but we all know the Barton is the better player to have on your roster.

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 12:55 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I meant career MLB WHIP.

They’re within a hundreth.

If Gaudin is equal to Gallagher in talent, Gallagher is WAY more valuable because he is younger/cheaper/more projectable. If Gaudin is a little better today, Gallagher is still more valuable overall.

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 1:00 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You are only talking in terms of right now

Right now he’s doing better. If where Gaudin is now is close to what he’ll do in the future, there is no way that you could say Gaudin>Gallagher.

by ecbc on Jul 9, 2008 1:15 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

look down the road

Gallagher looks to be at least a 4 starter down the road with 2 potential. Gaudin certainly hasn’t shown that.

Gaudin also plays in a very pitcher-friendly ball park.

by ecbc on Jul 9, 2008 1:12 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gaudin at 26 > Gallagher at 22

Ok fine. This trade didn’t make the ‘08 A’s any better and that should be ok because Beane is still building. But if you think that Gallagher has already topped out at 22 then I think you’re sorely mistaken while Gaudin has probably hit his peak. It wouldn’t suprise me if Gallagher surpasses Gaudin by next year but by 2010 Gallagher will most definately be the better pitcher of the two.

by methodrampage on Jul 10, 2008 9:20 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Right Now

You are right, Harden and Gaudin are better players RIGHT NOW. I’m just not sure what you do w/ a guy like Harden, especially during a rebuilding season. Everytime out, you have to hold your breath that the guy can stay healthy w/ limited pitch counts / limited innings.

Piniella and the Cubs are in for a rude awakening (IMO). Harden has electric stuff, but if used right, he very seldomly will get his team past the 6th inning.

by Colorado Fan on Jul 9, 2008 8:33 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He won't start 20 games with the Cubs because there aren't enough games left

He already has 13 starts this year, so I’m gonna say he’ll definitely start 20 total.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 9, 2008 11:55 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re

If Gallagher ends up a dependable #3 and Murton has an .850 ops, then yeah, it’s a good haul. Personally not bullish on Murton. Also can’t imagine Beane likes him that much, regardless of reports, if he’s not going to immediately take the place of Rajai or DFA. There was reportedly quite a bit of interest in Murton over the last year, particularly in the last year. Wouldn’t be shocked to see Murton paired with one of the young pitchers to get someone like Kouzmanoff.

by 31Boots on Jul 9, 2008 9:04 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I Really Hope......

......that this trade does work out well for both sides. However, I’m going to heartily boo Gallagher and Murton if they get off to rocky starts in Oakland, especially if Harden is blowing them away in Chicago. Also, I agree that Gaudin is kind of overrated, especially on this site. Remember he finished two games under .500 as a starter last year. Gallagher and Murton better impress quickly or they are going to have to be those rare players that are booed by the home crowd.

by may7 on Jul 9, 2008 5:01 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if you're going to make a point

i’d do it without using a meaningless stat like his record.

and are you really going to heartily boo a 22 year old if he doesn’t impress quickly? yikes.

by oakinboston on Jul 9, 2008 5:57 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

Booing 22 YOs who happened to be traded here is weak sauce.

"You know, a long time ago being crazy meant something. Nowadays everybody's crazy."

-Charles Manson

by kaweahkaweah on Jul 9, 2008 7:32 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed

It’s not his fault if he’s not Rich Harden. The guy is going to be under enough pressure as it is with everyone expecting him to replace an ace.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 8:04 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And that wouldn't be the case if Beane had gotten some type of prospect in the deal

Ryan Sweeney didn’t have the replacing Swish pressure because everybody was focused on the prospects. I don’t know if that had anything to do with him relaxing and hitting the ball, but it couldn’t have hurt.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 9, 2008 11:57 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Murton Headed To Cats, Not A's

The original blogger was confused… Murton is headed to Sacramento. When Mike Sweeney comes back from the 60-day DL, one of the players now on the 40-man roster will probably be DFA’ed, exposed to waivers for an outright assignment to Sacramento or placed on irrevocable waivers… Chris Denorfia has to be wondering whether this trade means that he will be the one. If someone wanted Emil Brown for their big-league roster, perhaps he’d be the one to go instead of Denorfia.

by muscatel on Jul 9, 2008 6:58 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

DFA gets traded (unlikely) or DFA'd

By the end of the ASB. That’s my prediction (and fervent hope)

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 6:59 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

glass half full

Despite living in Chicago, I don’t follow the Cubs at all and haven’t heard anything about Gallagher until yesterday. But it seems like there is plenty of room for optimism here.

Sean Gallagher | Gio Gonzalez

So Sean is a few months younger than Gio. He pitched only about 70 innings total in AAA (PCL) between his age 21 and 22 seasons, but the numbers look pretty good and I can see why the Cubs would have rushed him up to the majors. Both Sean and Gio struck out roughly 1 batter per inning in AAA but Gallagher has a substantially lower walk rate. Maybe I missed it, but I don’t think we have a lot of people running around this site saying that Gio’s ceiling is a #5 starter.

Let’s see what happens when Sean Gallagher moves to a more spacious home park with an excellent infield defense behind him.

by colin on Jul 9, 2008 8:12 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PECOTA

I should say that I don’t have a Bpro subscription, so I haven’t seen this PECOTA forecast that is supposedly awful. Anyone care to supply the basic details?

by colin on Jul 9, 2008 8:13 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and one more thing

I’ve heard the caveats about Minor League park factors being really unreliable, but I don’t know anything about the Iowa Cubs, so I looked up BBTF’s 2007 minor league park factors. According to this, Iowa is a significanly better hitter’s park than Sacramento. And, as I mentioned above, they’re both PCL, so you’ve got the same general run-scoring environment.

Ok, that’s all. I’m not saying that Gallagher is going to be an ace, but there is room for optimism here.

by colin on Jul 9, 2008 8:19 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The PCL has 2 conferences

which play each other for only 32 games a season.

It’s inaccurate to speak of a single environment in the PCL, as there are actually two (the part that’s in the middle of the country is more hitter-friendly, I believe).

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 9:13 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

good to know

I was struggling with the idea of a team in Iowa playing in the Pacific Coast League. I guess the name still doesn’t make sense, but at least my intuition was correct that the Rivercats don’t usually travel to the midwest for games.

by colin on Jul 9, 2008 12:33 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The story of the PCL

is a long and rather interesting one. It was once independent and almost a third major league, with players routinely moving back and forth from PCL teams to MLB teams.

Then it was absorbed, lost its unique aspect as the best league in the West when the Dodgers and Giants moved, and had a bunch of farm teams added to it in absurd places like Iowa and New Orleans.

The wikipedia page is informative.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 1:02 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kinda depends.

Colorado Spring, Albuquerque, Salt Lake, Las Vegas, tend to be hitter’s parks, in some cases crazy hitter’s parks.

Parks like Memphis, New Orleans, Oklahoma, Omaha, Nashville, tend to be neutral or pitcher’ parks.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 9, 2008 12:54 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Besides

Iowa, West Tennessee, the AA club, also plays in a slight hitter’s park.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 9, 2008 9:20 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I posted it a the end of the second trade thread 
Year 	 	IP 	H 	BB 	SO 	HR 	GB% 	BABIP 	Stuff 	WHIP 	ERA 	PERA 	EqERA 	
2008 (age 22) 	121.0 	127 	62 	89 	16 	45% 	.299 	1 	1.56 	4.98 	5.24 	5.18 	
2009 (age 23) 	110.0 	119 	51 	81 	16 	45% 	.303 	-2 	1.55 	5.23 	5.30 	5.44 	
2010 (age 24) 	105.3 	114 	48 	78 	16 	45% 	.303 	-2 	1.54 	5.19 	5.28 	5.40 	
2011 (age 25) 	78.7 	86 	34 	60 	10 	46% 	.314 	1 	1.52 	4.93 	5.14 	5.15 	
2012 (age 26) 	90.0 	100 	40 	70 	12 	45% 	.315 	-1 	1.55 	5.20 	5.33 	5.41 	
2013 (age 27) 	71.7 	78 	31 	53 	10 	46% 	.305 	-2 	1.52 	4.85 	5.13 	5.05 	
2014 (age 28) 	51.0 	54 	20 	40 	6 	46% 	.306 	2 	1.44 	4.53 	4.80 	4.73

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 8:22 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Year WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 22) 1.56 4.98 5.24 5.18 9.1 4.1 5.8 1.1 7.9 1.6 1.6
2009 (age 23) 1.55 5.23 5.30 5.44 9.4 3.7 5.9 1.2 4.5 1.0 1.3
2010 (age 24) 1.54 5.19 5.28 5.40 9.4 3.6 5.8 1.3 4.2 1.0 1.1
2011 (age 25) 1.52 4.93 5.14 5.15 9.5 3.4 6.0 1.1 5.5 0.9 1.1
2012 (age 26) 1.55 5.20 5.33 5.41 9.6 3.5 6.1 1.2 3.4 0.7 0.9
2013 (age 27) 1.52 4.85 5.13 5.05 9.4 3.5 5.9 1.2 5.6 0.8 1.1
2014 (age 28) 1.44 4.53 4.80 4.73 9.2 3.1 6.2 1.1 7.2 0.7 1.2

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 8:23 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Err, Let me try that again, with formatting 
Year 	 	WHIP 	ERA 	PERA 	EqERA 	H9 	BB9 	K9 	HR9 	VORP 	WXRL 	WARP
2008 (age 22) 	1.56 	4.98 	5.24 	5.18 	9.1 	4.1 	5.8 	1.1 	7.9 	1.6 	1.6
2009 (age 23) 	1.55 	5.23 	5.30 	5.44 	9.4 	3.7 	5.9 	1.2 	4.5 	1.0 	1.3
2010 (age 24) 	1.54 	5.19 	5.28 	5.40 	9.4 	3.6 	5.8 	1.3 	4.2 	1.0 	1.1
2011 (age 25) 	1.52 	4.93 	5.14 	5.15 	9.5 	3.4 	6.0 	1.1 	5.5 	0.9 	1.1
2012 (age 26) 	1.55 	5.20 	5.33 	5.41 	9.6 	3.5 	6.1 	1.2 	3.4 	0.7 	0.9
2013 (age 27) 	1.52 	4.85 	5.13 	5.05 	9.4 	3.5 	5.9 	1.2 	5.6 	0.8 	1.1
2014 (age 28) 	1.44 	4.53 	4.80 	4.73 	9.2 	3.1 	6.2 	1.1 	7.2 	0.7 	1.2

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 8:25 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why?

Why are the numbers so bad? Is it because of the walks?

Haren (Age 24) – Minor League Stats:

474.2 – IP
3.15 – ERA
8.77 – K/9
1.13 – WHIP
1.63 – BB/9
0.89 – HR/9

Gallagher (Age 22) – Minor League Stats

481 – IP
2.77 – ERA
9.02 – K/9
1.24 – WHIP
3.52 – BB/9
0.49 – HR/9

by Colorado Fan on Jul 9, 2008 8:28 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Most likely.

A walk rate that bad against minor leaguers is bound to get even worse against big leaguers.

by mikev on Jul 9, 2008 8:29 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

walk rate

His walk rate is inflated by his first 86 innings in AA. And he corrected it the next year, and it was the only time, including the last 170 innings at AA, AAA, and the bigs that the walk rate has been poor. It’s an outlier. His walk rate otherwise was slightly less than 3/9, which is good.

Keep in mind guys that PECOTA will look at him differently now that he’s lost all the weight (I assume).

by 31Boots on Jul 9, 2008 9:34 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, Like I said above, there's no way to be sure

But they do a “player profile” giving percentile ranks in five categories. These are his:

K: 35%
BB: 5%
ISO: 55% (opponent’s isolated power)
BABIP: 45%
GB/FP: 55%

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 8:30 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Haren, by contrast, is:

90 / 85 / 55 / 60 / 65

So I guess the reason is that they don’t think Gallagher is above average in many area’s (except controlling HRs and getting groundballs) and that he has awful control.

I don’t know how much “say” the player profile has in the stat projections, but it certainly supports control being a concern

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 8:34 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good god

5%?

Christ, Gaudin probably has a better percentile rank than that. And his control is terrible.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 9:15 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep

Gaudin is 68 / 20 / 60 / 58 / 75

But it could well be that the weightloss and a larger sample will change Gallagher’s for next year.

Keep in mind they only run these during the off-season

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 9:37 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

paul

he had one bad spell of control his entire career.

pecota is wrong in this case and its just a projection system anyways, its not perfect

by ACB on Jul 9, 2008 10:01 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Comparing John Danks to Gallagher is interesting

Yes, I know that Danks is a LHP while Gallagher is a RHP.

PECOTA also projected that Danks would suck, also PERAs and EqERAs in the high 4’s and low 5s.

Danks and Gallagher had somewhat similar K / BB rates in the minors. Gallagher, 482 Ks, 188 BBs, in 480.2IP. Danks, 439 Ks, 157 Bbs in 427 IP. Danks was better, and pitched in more hitter favouring environments. Both were young for their levels.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 9, 2008 9:40 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know about them

I just thought Danks would make an interesting comp. Like Gallagher, young for his levels. A K rate and a walk rate that is prett similar to Gallagher’s. Both pitched in fairly similar hitter friendly environments in the high minors: AA, AAA.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 9, 2008 1:21 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Watching Danks the other day,

he reminded me a lot of what Dan Meyer was supposed to be: A lefty who topped out at 93MPH or so with a good slider and command of his change – a “power arm with finesse”.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 9, 2008 1:36 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

thanks

I made it all the way to the bottom of the first trade thread, but not the second.

by colin on Jul 9, 2008 8:26 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Krukow's take

This morning on KNBR, Krukow said that in Gallagher, the A’s were getting the “real deal”. He raved about him. As for Harden, he said that when 100%, he has the best stuff etc. BUT, he doesn’t want to take the hill unless he’s 100% and that until he grows up and is willing to oitch when he’s not 100% and gives a team 240 innings, he is a giant risk.

by bamaA'sfan on Jul 9, 2008 8:30 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

as soon as i hear "grows up and willing to pitch"

I vomit. It’s like Krukow is jealous he never had Harden’s stuff so he is establishing his own personal dominance over Harden to show how even though Harden had better stuff, Krukow was the better pitcher, etc.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Jul 9, 2008 9:03 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know this is not going to go over well with anyone ...

... but the fact that Krukow is saying this makes me for the first time think that there may be something to the “Harden is a wuss” argument.

Krukow is a clown, and certainly is invested in the old-school “rub some dirt on it, meat!” mentality, and I wouldn’t even dispute that there’s some degree of envy in Krukow’s opining on Harden, but the man really knows about pitching.

... arousing men to burst the chains under which monkeyish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 9, 2008 9:51 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Krukow is a clown, but

I can’t stand him during broadcasts, but in the morning, pre-cocktail time, he says things that actually coherent and make a lot of sense. I doubt that he is envious of Harden. Kruk took the mound every 4th day and had a long career. Jury is still out on Rich.

by bamaA'sfan on Jul 9, 2008 10:10 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Honestly, "playing through pain" is macho bullshit.

How many times have we seen a player suddenly suck for awhile, called for them to benched only to find they have a hidden injury/are “playing through pain”? How’d that work out for Dan Meyer hiding an injury? Or Tim Hudson’s pitching through maiming? How many young arms get blown out in college because winning is more important than health?

One moment I really respected Zito was when he asked to come out of the game because he knew he was DONE. It’s about knowing yourself and realizing that sucking “for the team” is stupid.

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Jul 9, 2008 10:27 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I 99.99% agree with that

And I’ve been one of the most vocal defenders over the past 3 years of Harden’s right and responsibility to himself to not let the team bully him into playing when he’s not healthy.

But you know what? Throwing a ball nearly 100 mph is a profoundly unnatural and damaging act. Every single MLB pitcher experiences pain - often a great deal of pain - without there necessarily being anything intrinsically “wrong” with their physiognomy. There’s a reason that virtually every time you see a starting pitcher interviewed between 10 and 120 minutes after they leave the mound, that they’re swaddled in ice and ace bandages.

... arousing men to burst the chains under which monkeyish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 9, 2008 10:39 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's the classic question

“Are you hurt or are you injured”

I’ve seen no indication that Harden was merely hurt instead of injured, so there’s no reason to attack him for his DL stints.

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 11:03 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And Harden is certainly part of

the “every single MLB pitcher” group that pitches through the every day aches and pains – certainly in the last couple of starts, when his velocity was down and he said his arm felt tired, and also, almost as certainly, in every single other start he’s made, since as you say throwing 100 MPH is inherently hard on the body. He’s also known as something as a workout warrior – in fact, I seem to recall some of the previous criticism here was that might be spending too much time in the weight room – which would also seem inconsistent with someone not willing to work through pain.

There’s a difference, as you obviously agree, between pitching at “95% health” and pitching at “70% health.” The former is something that pitchers just have to do sometimes. The latter is dumb, both for the player, who is risking more serious injury, and for the team, which ends up getting a crappy performance out of it.

It seems to me that Harden has simply had a series of injuries that are serious enough to put him in the “shouldn’t be pitching” category but not serious enough to require surgery (and, yes, I would also agree that there’s a good chance it will happen again). Sometimes it really is that simple. I don’t understand why other people seem to find that wildly improbable.

"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.

by andeux on Jul 9, 2008 11:06 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

true, true

There’s also, of course, the team-doctors-say-you’re-fine/your-own-doctors-say-you’re-fine/but-you-know-there’s-something-wrong cases, such as Dotel, where he insisted and insisted and insisted there was something wrong with his arm despite all medical evidence to th4e contrary—and lo and behold, when they finally opened up his arm at Dotel’s insistence, there was indeed something wrong with his arm.

I have by no means crossed over into the Harden’s-a-wuss camp. I am no longer immediately 100% dismissive of it, though.

... arousing men to burst the chains under which monkeyish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 9, 2008 11:30 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The thing with the Harden's

activities in the weightroom though is what exactly is he doing in the weightroom. If he is spending his time in the weightroom pumping up his tits and arms, and sculpting his abs, yeah, he’s a workout warrior, it also doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s willing to work through pain.

Pumping up your arms, sculpting your abs, on machines, is much less painful than doing the exercises that actually benefit most athletes: squats, deadlifts, snatches, cleans, hyperextensions, rows, all with heavy free weights. Ie, exercises that work, that kill, your ass, thighs, lower back. hips, back,

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 9, 2008 11:49 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+a million

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 9, 2008 11:50 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Every single athlete competing

at a reasonable experiences “pain”. If you aren’t in some pain, you’re not training hard enough.

But, the thing is, there’s really no freaking way an outsider can tell at all whether an athlete is being overly sensitive. At all. Even coaches and managers, will have trouble making a correct assessment, in a team sport like baseball, where the coaches / trainers / managers are in a somewhat adversarial relationship with the player, ie, they work for the team, not the player, thus, the player sometimes has an incentive not to be completely truthful.

And given the long tradition of baseball players being too manly and macho, I lean towards Kyli’s position.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 9, 2008 11:43 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

competing at a reasonable level.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 9, 2008 11:50 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree with that as well. :)

While I normally feel comfortable railing about things I’m not qualified to rail about in regards to A’s health, questioning a player’s self-analysis of the existence of an injury is just something I’m not comfortable doing.

The A’s seem to have no qualms about running out guys who are injured to the point of NEEDING DL time. The mess that is Eric Chavez’s career is the prime example to me—he’s been injured HOW MANY YEARS, to only now be out for surgery? He could have not sucked these past few years, and possibly had an easier recovery? Why is it a player has to physically have a limb hanging off before receiving treatment?

Between the pressure from management, fans, and the players themselves, it’s difficult for me to see a player be completely unwilling to play through normal, day-to-day pain without receiving some serious shunning from his teammates. Or an Urban article with “unnamed sources”. Or having his Canadian citizenship revoked for a failure to live up to hockey-related ideals.

It’s not like Harden takes brief little jaunts to the DL. I guess I don’t feel like his history of injury indicates that it’s the average “Ha ha, you’re a pitcher” sort of daily pain and not the “Oh shit, your oblique just fell out, someone staple it back on” Tim Hudson school. I just don’t see anything that says, “Hey, he’s faking it!” other than frustrated comments.

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Jul 9, 2008 1:54 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Strictly Hypothetical: Early Opportunity vs. Long Term Rewards

A thought that was inspired some time ago by Harden’s seemingly delicate nature and the time of his tenure with the A’s: What if Harden’s reluctance to pitch through any sort of physical discomfort is his own diabolical, evil-Canadian genius means of artificially limiting his innings pitched and early wear-and-tear on his greatest asset in an effort to save himself for huge paydays and greater longevity post-arbitration/Oakland? The A’s have an excellent rep for the development and promotion of pitchers at a young age, virtually ensuring early exposure to MLB experience & salaries, and rewarding the most promising of the group early with security through their arbitration years – Blanton excepted. That said, the A’s have also have shown a willingness, nay encouragement, to let relatively young guys shoulder 200+ IP work loads year-in and year-out only to ship them off for fresh blood and continued organizational relevance when their economically "useful" years are coming to a close.

Now imagine you’re a young Rich Harden at the end 2004 – you’ve just started 31 games, and pitched nearly 200 innings in your first full year of major league ball. You also just witnessed Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson running themselves into the dirt for a team that refuses to negotiate extensions with free agents, or will trade you with two years remaining on your bargain contract in calculated moves for prospects or draft picks. You’ve got the kind of golden arm that is historically abused early and often by former middle-infielder/managers – and you’ve just earned yourself guaranteed multi-million dollar/multi-year security at the ripe old age of 23. You hail from a nation with universal healthcare, and despite your own reports of your puck-handling skills, you managed to avoid mangling your mug by pursuing a career in hockey. At what point do you say, "Fuck it. Because I’m good enough, I’m smart enough and doggone it, people like me. Well, not everybody. But that’s their problem. And your problem." To avoid becoming another Mark Mulder/Kerry Wood/Mark Prior/Sandy-freakin’-Koufax, you set yourself on cruise control for 3+ years, only to turn it on in the last couple of years of your contract to re-establish your own market value – fully secure in the knowledge that some asshole in New York/Chicago/LAAAA/ San Francisco will set you up for life, AFTER you’ve freed yourself from the shackles of indentured-Moneyball-servitude.

I know this theory has it’s share of flaws, namely the desire to win, the team aspect, the fact that jocks typically aren’t that calculating or smart, – but you would think that in the Project X environment that is the Oakland A’s clubhouse – sooner or later one of these monkey’s is going to wise up and refuse to play your goddamn radioactive video game.

by elhefe on Jul 9, 2008 7:18 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

nope

this has cost Harden a fortune.

if he had remained healthy, he’d get more money that santana. 25M a year for 5 years wouldn’t be overstating it by much.

As it stands, he’ll probably get 12M a year, tops. Maybe more if someone’s a fool, but definitely nowhere near as much as he would healthy.

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 8:04 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"Maybe more if someone’s a fool..."

I more or less agree with you, but the possibility that there may be a fool out there was kind of my point. Harden is given the opportunity to reestablish himself this year with a killer postseason in the one of the country’s largest market, and is locked up for a 7 million dollar option next year. IF he fulfills his promise in the next two years on that stage, and somehow his value isn’t stupid high when he reaches free agency, he could likely push it through the roof by taking the type of deal one year deal Seattle gave Jeff Weaver and succeeding.

Further, Major League GM’s don’t value Harden that high right now when it comes to giving up boatloads of promising young talent. But my presumption is that his injuries are overblown/mental/calculated (I don’t recall him going under the knife at any point), and if he leaves the spectre of injury/weakness behind him for the next year plus and gets the Joe Morgan "Proven Winner’ stamp o’ approval in Chicago – at least two GM’s (or their overbearing, impulsive, publicity seeking owners) will be lined up for his services.

by elhefe on Jul 10, 2008 9:55 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I can't help but notice that...

...everyone keeps saying that “Major League GMs don’t value Harden.” Sounds like something a small-market team should be valuing.

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Jul 10, 2008 10:09 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

time will tell

when he reaches free agency!

by elhefe on Jul 10, 2008 10:13 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I strongly suspect

that Rich Harden has acted for the good of Rich Harden, rather than the Oakland A’s franchise, on quite a number of occasions.

I’m sorry, I do not like him, and this is why. I don’t believe he has consistently made a good faith effort to fulfill the terms of his contract. He basically went on strike last September, which more or less scuttled any prospects of trading him in the offseason.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 8:57 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How dare you use the word "faith"?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 9, 2008 9:59 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The problem with that hypothetical

Rich Harden for Sean Gallagher, Murton et al.

If posters on AN, or on BBTF, or McC, or LL were MLB GMs, your plan might work. The problem is that MLB GMs for the most part appear to value guys like Rich Harden not too much.

Look at the contracts that Johan Santana, or Carlos Zambrano signed. If Harden had been healthy the last couple years, he could easily have gotten those contracts. With his health record, do you think anyone is going to give him a huge contract?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 10, 2008 12:20 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sinker?

In this scouting report there’s a mention of a sinker. I didn’t see this much at all last Thursday when Gallagher faced Lincecum. Seems like he’s gone away from it to emphasize the four-seamer and slider/curve. Perhaps it’s time to go back to the sinker?

by vertig0 on Jul 9, 2008 8:37 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

he doesnt

throw a sinker

for pitch f/x data you might want to try harry pavaldis who does that for the cubs

by ACB on Jul 9, 2008 10:18 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My take:

If Rich Harden pitches another five games this season, I’ll be shocked. He’s already starting the slide over the last few games. If that’s the case, this deal is golden.

In Gaudin, we’ve got a pitcher who is good, most definitely, but I can’t see him ever being better than he is right now. And will hitters start to figure him out over the coming year?

In the prospects, Gallagher is decent, no question – but I see him and Gaudin as a wash, frankly. Gaudin is Gallagher in a few years, Gallagher gives us a few more years of arby time.

Which means we’re talking Harden for a 2nd round pick (Donaldson), an OF who can cover second base (Patterson) and an OF who, if given a chance, hits a solid .300 with a little pop (Murton) – basically, another Buck.

A hurting Harden for Buck, a 2nd rounder and infield cover? Hm… okay, sure. Why not?

After all, in a few weeks time, Harden’s price may well drop to zero.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jul 9, 2008 9:46 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that's about my perspective on it, too

I think Beane realized that Harden’s value probably peaked about a month ago (when the Cubs first started inquiring, according to Hendry), and that while his value had plateaued or even dropped slightly the last week, it was about to plummet off a cliff. Now was pretty much the time to move, for whatever deal he could get.

... arousing men to burst the chains under which monkeyish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 9, 2008 9:54 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Damn

I had a huge post all typed out basically saying the same thing you did and you beat me to it. Gallagher = Gaudin. Solid back fo the rotation guy with the ability to pitch in the pen if needed. And Gallagher has a little more upside.

Murton, Patterson & Donaldson is the haul for Harden. I see this as a fair trade. Its nothing more than that: Fair. Is it AWESOME for the A’s? Probably not, but maybe. Is it AWESOME for the Cubs? Considering Harden’s health issues, I’d again say probably not, but maybe.

by wordfromthewise on Jul 9, 2008 10:04 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You guys are both wrong

Gallagher is far more valuable than Gaudin

He’s much younger, proven able to post a decent ERA in a super hitting friendly stadium (same career WHIP as Gaudin, who has benefited from the Coliseum/A’s defense). Oh, and he saves us $1.5M this season alone (more in the future as Gaudin’s salary explodes)

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 10:09 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agreed on all points except the $1.5M

Unless that savings is specifically being channeled into player development/acquisition (of which there’s no guarantee), that money goes straight into Crywolffisher’s hedge fund against the prolonged RE downturn.

... arousing men to burst the chains under which monkeyish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 9, 2008 10:14 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't want to waste my time and money

so that Lew Wolff has a wealthier lifestyle. I’m not rooting for Lew to buy another Mercedes. I really don’t care. I only care about the money if it’s pumped back into the A’s, in a visible manner. Putting more money into promoting Fremont doesn’t count.

by richwol1 on Jul 9, 2008 11:40 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You mean like, for example, making the biggest LA free agent signing ever?

Can we really be furious about a lack of investment in the team so soon?

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 11:48 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, that's not what I mean

What I mean is that it’s the A’s decision to spend money or not spend money, to set a budget, to pocket the difference. I think it’s great that the team spent the money on Inoa, and I have no problem if the money goes toward development.

I do have a problem with the owner using the money to “increase his financial stability in a downturn,” which basically means pocketing it.

by richwol1 on Jul 9, 2008 11:57 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ah, fair enough

I think we’ll probably reap the benefits of a low payroll this year in the future (there’ll probably be off season FAs we get excited about) but yeah the salary savings in this trade is meaningless if the GM just pockets it.

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 12:06 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If the *GM* just pockets it, I think that's embezzlement.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jul 9, 2008 7:56 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What if the GM is also a part owner?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 10, 2008 12:20 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Or part monkey?

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jul 10, 2008 3:25 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes we can.

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Jul 9, 2008 1:57 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good luck with amateur ball.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jul 10, 2008 3:25 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Whatever he does with the money, it's still saved

And since this deal saves us $8M (and counting) I’d be shocked if it doesn’t either make us a FA player in the off season or allow us to make more splashy international signings.

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 10:20 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

2008 Payroll

Does this deal bring total current payroll under 40M??!

I can’t believe the payroll Beane has shedded since Aug. ‘08 – Loaiza, Haren, Swisher, Scutaro, Kotsay, Harden, Gaudin – And at the current moment, it looks like the extra money is being spent in the D.R. (Michel Inoa, Robin Rosario, etc.)

Does anybody have Signing Bonus Figures for signing D.R. & Venezuelan Prospects?

Inoa – 4.5M?
Rosario – 600K?

by Colorado Fan on Jul 9, 2008 10:39 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rosario was 350K

I dunno, I mean, you can’t really match up one thing with another. Maybe he uses the Gaudin money to sign Brett Hunter. Or maybe he was going to sign Hunter anyway and uses it to buy a new yacht. We really have no idea.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 11:11 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, man ...

... and then in 2011 he’s just gonna sell the yacht off to the highest bidder for a bunch of dinghies. Eff you, Beane!

... arousing men to burst the chains under which monkeyish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 9, 2008 11:31 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wouldn't be shocked.

People seem to continuously expect that the cost-cutting moves will result in some sort of splashy offseason action that rarely actually occurs.

"This must be heaven," he says.
"No. It's Oakland."

by Kyli on Jul 9, 2008 1:58 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And maybe someday down the road

When the economy is booming again, he’ll take a little money out of the henge fund for an extra bullpen arm. There’s no guarantee with anything Crywolffish

by wordfromthewise on Jul 9, 2008 10:24 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Seems like the fan worry about Gallagher is so typical -

He has poor major league stats – just as Eveland did when he was brought up young and raw, just as fricking Mark Mulder and Rich Harden did their rookie seasons – because he’s 22. And people worry this will translate into his stats when he’s 25 – it won’t. And PECOTA doesn’t like him? Beane and the A’s outstanding scouting department like him, real people who know pitching and have seen him pitch (e.g., Krukow) like him. PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass. Prediction: Gallagher will be a solid #3 starter for the A’s. Not bad at all.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 9, 2008 10:33 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

New sig line.

Been needing one for a while, and it sums up perfectly how I feel about Gallagher.

"PECOTA can pretty much kiss my ass."-Nico

by jeepers on Jul 9, 2008 12:08 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Abe Pecota was great in Taxi.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jul 10, 2008 3:27 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FWIW, Geren on yesterday's pre-game radio show said ...

that when the team was flying to Chicago last week, pitching coach Curt Young was watching video of the White Sox to prepare for the upcoming series when the opposing pitcher’s stuff made him take notice and say, “Who’s that?”

Yup.

It was the Cubs’ Sean Gallagher.

Mocha Almond Fudge

by Ice Cream on Jul 9, 2008 11:07 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's the part I feel many fans are overlooking:

The A’s really like Gallagher. Look at the guys they’ve gotten whom they “really liked” even when the numbers/scouting reports weren’t so impressive: Gaudin, Cust, Duchscherer, Ellis (in retrospect, shouldn’t Damon have “been included in the Ellis deal,” not the other way around?).

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 9, 2008 11:29 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Was he wearing tight pants?

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jul 10, 2008 3:28 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So

can anybody give me some info on Gaudin? I know he is a sinker slider kind of guy but any other info would be cool

by ACB on Jul 9, 2008 11:41 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

he's a slider slider slider slider slider guy

but he can hit like 91-93

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 9, 2008 11:58 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's actually moved away from the sinker this year

for reasons that I don’t really follow. It may have to do with moving to the bullpen. It’s bettered his control at the expense of his ground ball rate.

When he’s on, he’s pounding the bottom of the zone with low-90s with a plus slider and an average changeup to lefthanders. When he’s off, he elevates the ball and gives up home runs.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 12:03 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Though, to be fair...

..he’s usually on.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jul 10, 2008 3:29 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Was just listening to Charley Steiner's XM show

Apparently he talked to someone in the A’s FO, specifically not Beane and not named otherwise, and I guess the A’s were just thrilled to be able to trade Harden for any value at all. Whoever it was Steiner talked to said it’s been weighing heavy on the minds of the A’s FO all the way back to last season, when they wanted Harden to pitch in September to showcase his health, and he refused.

by 31Boots on Jul 9, 2008 12:02 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh Larry Davis, you devil!

The secret origin of the Oakland A’s rumor-mill…

I am Ray Fosse's man crushes for Clay Wood and Jason Kendall.

by franks a lot on Jul 9, 2008 12:10 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm so sick of this Gaudin = Gallagher crap

If we tried to trade Cahill, Anderson, or even Mazzaro for a guy who had been a long-man/poor starter with half a good season a year ago, people would scream. Gallagher has had one mediocre stretch in the Majors, and one stretch of control problems in AA, and people just ignore all the upside?

PT compared him to Simmons earlier- This shows how crazy this conversation has gotten. Gallagher has so much more upside than Simmons its not even funny. 4 MPH more on his fastball, and a nasty Curve. Simmons is a great prospect, but HE is someone you should project to be a 4 or 5 starter. Casting Gallagher as a #5 misses the point entirely. He may not reach his upside(depends on how his control holds up), but it looks like #2-3 starter status is reasonably possible.

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 12:45 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Either Gallagher is throwing 96-97 now

or you just confused Simmons with Jason Windsor.

Every report I’ve seen on Simmons has him in the same 92-94 range that Gallagher is. Maybe 1 MPH slower at most.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 1:05 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There was a goofy report on MLB.com when he came out...

that had him at 92-94, but I don’t recall ever seeing a game report having him touch 94. Seems to sit at 89-90. I’m a huge Simmons fan. I like him way more than Gio, and think he has the potential to be a very solid #3 or better, but there’s no reason to pretend he’s something he’s not.

by 31Boots on Jul 9, 2008 1:26 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

See below

for my misplaced response.

Gist: Multiple 2007 reports say 88-90.
I haven’t seen anything saying he’s added velocity recently.

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 1:30 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think that's right...

especially since reported velocity’s tend to be overstated in the minors, and I don’t recall anyone having Simmons at 92-94.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 9, 2008 1:48 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Simmons = polished

They’re the same age, and Gallagher is 2 levels ahead. Give him time.

Also, Gallagher has better stuff, so while he will never have Simmons control, he can get away with it more often. He needs to improve his control, but he doesn’t need to (nor can he) be Simmons-esque

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 1:32 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Realistically...

...Gallagher should be throwing in AAA for another six months polishing his stuff.

That he’s not, and has played in the majors early, makes it tough to compare him to a kid who only has AA stats.

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jul 10, 2008 3:31 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You base that on what?

His 4.5 ERA?

He’s proven he can hang in an easier league (but much harder stadium). I’d be surprised if he pitches in the minors again (unless, of course, there’s an injury rehab in his future)

by nevermoor on Jul 10, 2008 5:53 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Off topic slightly, but this thread is current...

Looking over Murton’s career stats, what the hell did the Cubs do to him? Called up in ‘05, then played a full season in ‘06, and in both performed pretty well for a rookie. Then in 2007 he started down in AAA? Called up after 40 games to finish the season with the Cubbies, THEN starts 2008 in AAA too? What was the story with all that movement?

by dscel on Jul 9, 2008 1:21 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Murton

plays LF and after 06 we signed a pretty expensive LF and blocked him

by ACB on Jul 9, 2008 1:25 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They signed Alfonso Soriano

after 2006, Kosuke Fukudome after 2007.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 9, 2008 1:28 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well...

I’ve never seen him live, so I can’t be 100% sure.

Baseball America had this pre-draft report-


47. James Simmons, rhp

School: UC Riverside. Class: Jr.
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 215. Birthdate: 9/29/86.
Scouting Report: Simmons was a high school teammate of San Diego’s Josh Romanski, a sophomore lefty and the Toreros’ No. 2 starter. Simmons has been UC Riverside’s ace since his freshman season in 2005, when he won at Oregon State but was academically ineligible at midseason. He followed a good sophomore season by dominating the Cape Cod League last summer, posting a 1.18 ERA. Simmons has worn the label of ace even more comfortably as a junior, winning a much-hyped duel with Cal State Fullerton rival Wes Roemer in late April, when he pumped up his fastball to 93 mph. Usually, Simmons sits at 89-90 mph, but he commands the fastball better than anyone else in college baseball in 2007. Scouts give him 60 or even 70 grades (on the 20-80 scale) for his command. He pitches off the fastball, both a sinking two-seamer and firmer four-seamer, and works all quadrants of the strike zone. Some scouts don’t like his secondary pitches as anything but fringe-average, but his slider and particularly his changeup find some takers. His slow curveball needs significant improvement. His toughness and above-average makeup endear him to all scouts. Simmons will go as high in the draft-and as far as a pro-as his fastball command takes him.


Also:
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/tracker.jsp?mc=simmons
88-92 in this report, albeit 2007

http://www.capecodbaseball.org/News/news2007/BarnPatriot/BarnPat_15BJun07.htm
also cites 88-92, but probably based on the same report

http://dailylancer.blogspot.com/2007_03_01_archive.html
89-90 in this report

Do you have anything more recent saying he added velocity? I haven’t seen it.

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 1:28 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Grrr...

This was supposed to be in response to PT 3 posts above. I Fail

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 1:29 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is there any reason you didn't bold the sentence right before the 89-90?

Simmons has worn the label of ace even more comfortably as a junior, winning a much-hyped duel with Cal State Fullerton rival Wes Roemer in late April, when he pumped up his fastball to 93 mph.

by mikev on Jul 9, 2008 1:29 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The issue is where he sits

I could cite the reports where Gallagher hits 96. Also, this is the only report I saw that even suggested he’s touched 93. That’s one game they’re citing- could easily be a generous gun.

I suspect that Simmons can hit 93, but I bet his control isn’t as good at that level.
I’m just speculating here though.

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 1:34 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Simmons profiles a lot like Blanton

Around 90MPH most of the time with exceptional fastball command. Given that Blanton can be a bit volatile and that Simmons’ “makeup” gets rave reviews, it seems like Simmons has a chance to be even a little better than Blanton – and that would make him a solid #2 major league starter.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 9, 2008 1:38 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well...

Depends on what you think of Blanton.

I’m beginning to think Blanton is exactly what he was projected to be. A very good, innings-eating 4th starter. The only thing that makes his line awesome and in line with 2-3 starter status is the coliseum, I think.

The Coli makes 5-6th starter types (Eveland, Smith) into 3-4th starters, Blanton into a #2.

This brings up a really really good inefficiency to exploit. Rather than trading minor league arms for minor league bats, we should allow each of our prospects to come up, benefit from the coli, and then trade them for higher value.

We could really inflate the value of our prospects by letting them establish themselves as “ML-Quality” starters, and then trading them.

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 1:47 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's true that Blanton's home/road splits are significant

He did win 14 games/year for a low-to-medium offense team, though, partly due to getting deep into games and partly due to pitching “well enough to win” most of the time. Whether he’s been a #2 or #3 (from 2005-07) in a neutral park is an interesting question.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 9, 2008 1:58 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not really

He was a #3 in 2005, a #5 in 2006, a #2 last year, and has been a #4 this year. That’s centering below #3, not above it.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 2:03 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

this would be my impression as well

and true talent wise, it’s looking like #4 is a good number, with the coli pushing him a nudge up.

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 2:51 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To be honest, no, I don't

I may be guilty of wishcasting. Or maybe it was just spring-training optimism.

That said, people are wishcasting Gallagher too—his average FB is 92.4 MPH. So it looks like he’s more like 2 MPH faster than Simmons.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 1:33 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's fine

I’m just going with what I read. I haven’t seen any of them. Where did you get the avg FB #? FanGraphs?

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 1:35 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ja

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 1:35 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

From half of John Jaha?

Cool.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 9, 2008 1:39 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ha

... arousing men to burst the chains under which monkeyish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 9, 2008 1:44 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To be fair

1/4 of Jaha is still more than an average person in size.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Jul 9, 2008 2:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I was thinking the same thing

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 3:01 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why be fair to John Jaha?

Notes From The Nat has a new home: http://www.natnotes.com

by Ozzz on Jul 10, 2008 3:34 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also

92.4 average is very good. ~~ top 20% of SPs. 2 mph in the average is a lot, and I’d bet good money that Simmons will average 89.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 9, 2008 1:54 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree

the point of this was that there is a substantial difference in Simmons’ upside vs. Gallagher’s

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 1:59 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe we can trade Embree to a contender

for 2 MPH.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 9, 2008 1:59 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Haha

if you consolidate skills, MLB would be an interesting place-

“we’ll trade you Mazzaro to add 2 MPH to Cahill’s FB”

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 2:00 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well, shit, if that's the way it works ...

... we should have traded a prospect or two for some extra hit points on Harden.

... arousing men to burst the chains under which monkeyish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 9, 2008 2:44 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe

Simmons is young enough to still be a bit projectable. He was very young for a college draftee (20 and 9 months).

We’ll see, I guess. If the Rivercats make the AAA playoffs again, he’ll probably be pitching for them.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 2:02 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not down on Simmons

Great command at 89 is fine, and I wouldn’t be too surprised if he has a better career than Gallagher, but he has much less upside.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 9, 2008 2:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Simmons is throwing great in AA...

If that translates to AAA I think Simmons could be a better version of Blanton. And thats pretty good.

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on Jul 9, 2008 2:16 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re

Man, I see this comparison a lot and it gets me worked up every time. Not because it’s not apt, but because Blanton has off speed stuff on an entirely nother level than Simmons. I really really really wish Blanton would at least experiment with giving up the pitch to contact notion and get a lot more aggressive with the breaking stuff and the four-seamer. I know Macha used to berate him any time a breaking ball got hit (remember the Overbay grand slam), but it just feels like Blanton could be more than he is if he wasn’t so conservative. It’s especially aggravating when the conservative approach isn’t just middling, it’s poor.

Anyway, just a stray thought that’s been in my head for a while.

by 31Boots on Jul 9, 2008 2:27 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Apparently I'm much more pessimistic about control as a "learned skill"

than most people.

When I see a guy with poor control, I don’t assume that his upside includes being able to fix that.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 3:03 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm curious

has anybody tried to study that before?

I’m not saying it’s a question that anyone could dig up the data for. You sort of need to be an actual baseball organization and make a concerted effort at teaching control, then review the results somewhere down the line. But, of course, in Moneyball, they contrast power and plate discipline, with results suggesting that you can add power but that hitters don’t usually learn to lay off bad pitches. Any similar info for BB/9 and K/9, or other pitching stats?

by colin on Jul 9, 2008 3:48 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think it's sort of a corollary to the idea of "There's No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect"

Because almost always what you see is basically what you get.

The exceptions would be pitchers who learn new pitches or change their delivery/mechanics, or the ones who have the ability to pitch in the zone but lack the confidence and then learn the confidence to succeed in the majors (Moyer/Maddux).

Sorry, I don’t have a study for you, but I’ll bet there is one…

Jeremy was safe. He jumped over the tag.

by mrrickyg on Jul 9, 2008 4:23 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Unless you can find some way

to control for variables like the coaches involved, how would it be capable for anyone to do anything kind of study on this? Or on power and plate discipline too.

If a player fails to develope a particular skill, whether it be power, plate discipline, control, command, a breaking pitch, whose do you blame? The player? The coach(es)? The fact that that skill supposedly can’t be learnt? Who gets the credit for Jose Reyes changing from a hacker who’s plate approach was to swing at anything that came near him to a hitter with good plate discipline? Who gets the blame for Sean Burroughs completely and utterly failing to develope power?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 10, 2008 12:37 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, his control isn't terrible,

and certainly it can be improved marginally.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 9, 2008 7:11 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have been skeptical as well

But take a look at Vince Mazzaro’s stats this year compared to last. I read somewhere that it was because he gained better control of his fastball.

Procrastinators unite....tomorrow

by muffinpryde on Jul 10, 2008 8:03 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

exactly,

but the same point still point still applies to Gallagher

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 2:53 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gallagher is more than a year older than Simmons

He’s running out of projection at this point. Particularly with his body type.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 3:04 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Technically 9 months

December 85 for Gallagher, September 86 for Simmons.

but your general point might be true, although the weight loss for Gallagher is encouraging

by ohmangoAs on Jul 9, 2008 3:55 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Must have missed the "1" in "12"

That does make a (small) difference.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 9, 2008 4:12 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re

http://tinyurl.com/5z779k

Blanton has some of the highest swing and miss percentages on his curve and slider amongst all starting pitchers in baseball. Simmons off speed stuff is typically described as average or slightly above (even seen his change described as “fringey”.) His strength is fastball command.

by 31Boots on Jul 9, 2008 3:40 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Untill you can get Pf/x Data on Simmons

thats all just speculation.

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on Jul 9, 2008 4:06 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

SPECULATION??

On a BLOG????

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 9, 2008 4:27 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It crazy I know!

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on Jul 9, 2008 4:35 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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