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Trade Analysis

A brief analysis of the trade.  I don't like it.

The four players we got:
Matt Murton - http://tinyurl.com/6nxlks
Sean Gallagher - http://tinyurl.com/5co9lr (Minors: http://tinyurl.com/5vokzw)
Eric Patterson - http://tinyurl.com/58hmwe
Josh Donaldson - http://tinyurl.com/58w9dv

Cubs Top 10 Prospects, February 2007: http://tinyurl.com/5u3c79
Cubs Top 10 Prospects, November 2007: http://tinyurl.com/58lqcq

The two players they got:
Rich Harden - http://tinyurl.com/6gahqn
Chad Gaudin - http://tinyurl.com/625mo7

Breakdown of Cubs players:

The Cubs players have little Major League experience, so I'll go into their stats a bit more.

Murton is old (26) and only batted .250 this year in limited plate appearances.  Also, wrigley is a big-time hitters park, so his decent numbers from last season we're probably inflated.  He was a #1 draft pick in 2003 - out of college - and still hasn't made enough of an impact to stick in the majors.  That is a problem.

Gallagher, Patterson and Donaldson all mate the Cubs Top 10 prospects in at least one of the above reports, but never higher than #5.  Of the three, Gallagher is the only one with significant Major League experience, pitching 73.3 innings over two seasons.  He posted a 4.5 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP.  Very underwhelming.  Basically, if this guy lives up to his potential he might be almost as good as Gaudin.  If he doesn't then he's a back-of-the-order guy or a career AAA pitcher who fills in when guys get injured.

Patterson is 25 and has solid minor league numbers.  Last year he batted .297 with 14 HR and 28 Doubles in 516 ABs.  But he also posted a 1.6 K/BB ratio.  He's got the most upside of the whole class, but how many slightly above-average outfielders do we need?  It's already crowded enough as it is.

Donaldson was drafted out of college, so he's already 22 and still in Class A.  Where he batted .223 in 229 ABs.  Overall (between Rookie League, Low Class A and Class A) he's batted .271 with a 1.4 K/BB ratio.  Not impressive.

Breakdown of A's Players:

Rich Harden - Cy Young stuff if he stays healthy.  Which he has except for 4 weeks this season.
Chad Gaudin - Excellent starter who can also pitch in relief.  He's an excellent #4 starter and a pretty good #3.


In terms of absolute value, I think the Cubs got the better of the deal, if Harden stays healthy.  If he falls apart, then the trade is even in terms of absolute value.  But it's still a bad trade for the A's.  Why?  Because we don't need the value we got.  We have great pitching.  We have awful offense.  We already have a bunch of cheap, average or slightly above-average players filling out our roster.  All we've done is add more of the same.  We'd have been better off getting one or two really outstanding prospects than these guys.

 

0 recs  |  Comment 21 comments

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Yikes.

Murton’s almost 1,000 career AB’s isn’t considered more experience than 73 innings from Gallagher?

This is pretty knee jerk stuff.

by Emmett89 on Jul 8, 2008 8:02 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I said, “of the three” (patterson, donaldson, gallagher, Gallagher is the one with the most ML experience. I wasn’t including Murton, as I had already discussed his stats (since he is by far the most experienced of the four).

by raphael on Jul 8, 2008 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

only thought is beane is going to flip some of the pitching for a bat. i’m okay with trading harden (though i think he may have finally gotten over the injury issue – for a guy who hasn’t really pitched in 2 years, having a dead arm period in july is not shocking). i’m also okay with trading gaudin. but i just don’t think we got anything remotely fair in return. maybe a #4 starter (though he’s very young, and billy obviously knew what he was doing in getting smith and eveland, two guys nobody thought would be this good). murton’s not bad – but he’s probably just a little above-average. same with patterson. but neither are spring chickens. donaldson has played bad so far, but who knows, he’s pretty young (though old for A ball). basically, we got, at best, a couple decent players. that’s not bad, but considering what we gave up, that’s not very good. admittedly, the market for harden may have been pretty bad, but i dunno, i might just keep him and gaudin if nobody offered more than this miniscule haul.

by guy incognito on Jul 8, 2008 8:07 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

you are being pessimistic on gallagher

he is 22

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 8, 2008 8:27 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

PECOTA hates Gallagher

5+ eqERA with a 1.5 WHIP

I’d say there’s good reason to be pessimistic.

by nevermoor on Jul 8, 2008 8:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

the guy is 22

and it’s not like this trade is for RIGHTNOWOMG.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 9, 2008 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

40 Man Roster

Looking at the 40 man roster on the A’s site, I see Gallagher appears but Murton and Patterson do not? Since our roster is at 38 with Gallagher as of this writing I am assuming both Murton and Patterson will need to be added. Also, do we get an roster space exception for Mike Sweeney, who was transferred to the 60 day DL?

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=oak

by Playball on Jul 8, 2008 9:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

60-day DL = no longer on 40-man

I read (either from Slusser or CBS) that Murton will start in AAA, but that’s got to be a polite way of saying we’re trying to trade DFA before we, well, DFA him. Murton is a HUGE upgrade over DFA.

by nevermoor on Jul 8, 2008 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Huge?

C’mon, we’re talking platoon outfielders here. A little perspective, s’il vous plais.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 8, 2008 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Murton doesn't have to be a platoon

He has a .770 OPS against platoon. I think he’s an every day starter for us as long as Cust has the DH.

DFA, however, was garbage.

by nevermoor on Jul 8, 2008 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm hoping

Hoping a lot. There is now no excuse WHATSOEVER to have DFA on our team.

by nevermoor on Jul 9, 2008 6:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't like the timing of the trade

Unless…. something is up.

Such as Beane knows Harden is probably done for the year very soon. OR there is another trade or two coming.

If neither the timing was terrible. I see no reason to trade Harden RIGHT NOW (unless one of the two things mentioned above was true).

First off, why not hold out a little linger and see if the Cubs up their offer.
Second, why not get another start or two out of Harden. A big game with the Angels this weekend. We could have sent him out there one last time at home.
Third, the organization is desperate to get people to the games. An announcement like this during one of the last few homestands of the month will probably hurt the gate.

I am not going to argue about making trades for future or the merits of the guys we got. I will say that for what we got there was no reason to rush.

However, the reasons mentioned at the start of the post for trading right now might be true.

Anyway GO A’s!!!!

by Yellowhorse on Jul 8, 2008 9:17 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Also, everyone expects Brown to be gone.

Why not Davis? I guess Thomas is not coming back as soon (this could be a reason Beane thought against making a run at the post-season in 2008). Why do we need Davis as a PR?

Also, Cust will probably just be a DH without Thomas, thus the need to use a defensive replacement for Cust is void.

NEither Brown nor Davis is great but I think Brown is better than Davis

by Yellowhorse on Jul 8, 2008 9:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Davis still gives you PR

And he’d be used as a defensive sub for Murton in a Murton/Sweeney/CarGon OF

Murton deserves the “better than Cust” scant praise, but he’s not a gold glover.

by nevermoor on Jul 8, 2008 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Corrected for you....
Rich Harden – Cy Young stuff if he stays healthy. Which he has except for 4 ~7 weeks this season past 3 years.

"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."

by ST on Jul 8, 2008 9:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

its too early to tell

when friday comes and the new kid gets a chance to shine for the A’s fan than i will jump to my conclusion.
but as of right now looking at this trade i think we shoulda gotten more from the cubs

by Wreckonized on Jul 9, 2008 12:22 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Cubs fan

I’m not a minor league expert, but I do keep tabs on the 20 or so top prospects in the Cubs organization. There’s a lot of wrong reporting about these prospects, both optimistically and pessimistically. This is basically what I’ve read about the Cubs prospects from scouting reports and numbers and such.

Gallagher

He’s 22 and basically the Cubs top pitching prospect (Donald Veal is close by with more potential but less refinement). He’s been notched as anywhere from a 2-4 starter. Most reports say he’s somewhere in the spectrum of a 3-4 starter, but #2 is definitely in the realm of possibility. He can definitely be a solid 5 starter currently for many ball clubs. He is obviously the centerpiece of the deal.

Scouting Report from 2006

Murton

Murton is a 26 year old who is blocked in the organization. He has shown an on base ability but limited power. He had a solid year in his first full season as a major leaguer in 2006 at age 24 with a line of .297/.365/.444. However, he has been shunted since then, and with Fukudome and Soriano in his only playable positions, RF and LF, he has to be a 5th outfielder. But by no means is he a 5th outfielder. Reed Johnson is only above him because of the hole we have (had if Edmonds continues) in CF. The last few seasons have been full of irregular playing time. He is a fourth outfielder at worst and could be a solid, but not stunning corner outfielder at best. He could be a fine outfielder if he gets a chance. He is definitely major-league ready at this point.

Patterson

He is a former top prospect but has a lot of question marks. There is no doubt the potential is there, but he has to overcome many question marks if he does. His defensive position is a bit muddled. There has been word that he is not defensively sound at 2nd base and he tried out the outfield for the first time in the very beginning of the year. His bat is not enough to hit for a corner spot so his positions will probably have to be either 2nd base or CF. As I said, there are questions at 2nd base and he has only started CF this year. Offensively, his question marks are also there, though there are fewer. His plate discipline needs to be improved. He has potential, but now at age 25, he’ll soon be too old to be a prospect. If he could reach his full potential, he could be all-star caliber, but don’t get your hopes too high. He is major league ready as a bench player, which it looks as if he will be successful at that, if worst comes to worst.

Donaldson

Donaldson was the 48th pick of the 2007 draft out of college. He lit up Short A Boise in his first full pro season, boosting him into the top 10 of the Cubs mediocre farm system, pretty much the top catching prospect for the cubs beginning the season (not counting Soto). He is known as an offense first catcher but has struggled badly so far in 2008. Defensively, he has flaws because he is a converted catcher from 3rd base. He has good instincts and is a fast learner, but still needs more experience in the catcher’s position. While he is struggling this year, his upside certainly is high as an offensive catcher threat. He certainly displayed that threat last year in Short A Boise. Developmentally, he is not near the big leagues. He’s basically an upside guy.

better Scouting Report from 2007

by ecbc on Jul 9, 2008 4:32 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

very informative

(Formerly Nobody Girl)
"We are a complete freak show." -- Billy Beane

by day-to-day on Jul 9, 2008 5:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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