The 6 Man Rotation (& roster, post AS break)

by BillMoresi on Jul 4, 2008 3:56 PM PDT Comment 31 comments

I know it's unconventional to use a six man rotation, but the A's would have a few great reasons to use one after the All Star Break:

Harden, Duchscherer are both "injury prone"
Smith, Eveland are young and approaching walls in innings pitched that often derail their productivity towards the end of the season & affect the following year (see Gaudins stellar season last year meet September)
With the thought that Blanton may be traded, our only sure starter, Gaudin would most likely step back into the rotation & would need his innings monitored like Smith & Eveland.

I would like to see Blanton traded at some point, and I think he will be. For now, I'm going to use Gaudin in the rotation, assuming Blanton is traded (if he's not, Gaudin would remain in the bullpen with Blanton assuming his spot)

My starting 6:

Rich Harden
Greg Smith
Justin Duchscherer
Dana Eveland
Chad Gaudin
Gio Gonzalez

I know Gio hasn't had the season we were hoping for at AAA, but he's only 22 years old. Eveland didn't have a stellar season at AAA last year, either, and he's been very solid at the Major League Level. Gio has high upside IMO, and has better pure pitches than both Smith/Eveland. It'd be nice to get his feet wet for the 2nd half of 2008, but I'm probably rushing him.

Our bullpen could also use a youth movement as well. Foulke / Embree should both be trade bait for prospects or outright released.

Our bullpen:

Dalls Braden (long reliever)
Andrew Brown
Joey Devine
Santiago Casilla
Brad Ziegler
Huston Street (closer)

Blevins hasn't pitched well at the major league level(albeit in limited experience), and he also hasn't been used starting recently. I would rather see Braden called up and serve as the long man. Brown / Devine / Casilla / Ziegler could make a formidable bullpen for the 7th & 8th innings.

While I like the idea of Ziegler used as a set up man, I would caution using him in the 8th inning only. Due to his amazing ability to produce ground balls, he would be VERY useful at any point late in a game where a starter/reliever is in a jam and we need a double play, or the ball kept in the infield. You need to get to the 8th inning with a lead and sometimes that is more important than Ziegler not pitching merely because it wasn't the 8th inning.

I would rather have a more fluid bullpen, where you can call on the hot hand in certain situations, over having defined rolls. It has worked VERY effectively for Tampa Bay this year.

Our non-pitching roster:

Catchers

Kurt Suzuki
Rob Bowen

Designated Hitters

Frank Thomas

Outfielders

Ryan Sweeney
Carlos Gonzalez
Travis Buck
Jack Cust
Rajai Davis

Rajai Davis should primarily be used as a pinch runner for Frank Thomas or Jack Cust, or a defensive replacement late in games.

I like the outfield of Sweeney / Gonzalez / Buck, with each of them getting an off day once a week and Cust playing. Frank could also take ocasional off days with Cust at DH. Next year, Cust could assume full time DH duties.

Infielders

Daric Barton
Mark Ellis
Bobby Crosby
Donnie Murphy
Gregorio Petit

I think Mike Sweeney should be traded/released. I like his at bat, and at this point, like him over Barton, but if Barton is the 1B of the future, he needs the at bats.

Emil Brown should be released as well; he is taking at bats away from young outfielders who need them.

I'd rather have Murphy play 3B the rest of the year than Hanahan, or fill in for third when Chavez needs days off, which at this point will be a lot.

Petit can backup for Ellis / Crosby.

Having only 5 infielders isn't conventional, either, but four of the five infielders are generally 2B/SS, who are great athletes and could transition well to 1B/3B, if needed.

Cust also needs to be utilized at 1B. He's got to be as good (and as bad) at first as he is in the outfield. I can see him playing first when Barton needs rest.

With Cust utilized in the outfield, at DH and at 1B, he can still get a lot of at bats. Cust hitting in front of Frank Thomas and getting a lot of fastballs would be a great situation.

As you can tell, I'm heavily in favor of the youth movement. I don't believe we have veterans whos value is remarkably above that of our youth where they warrant eating the innings (Brown, Sweeney, Foulke, Embree). I also don't think it would hurt our chances of catching the Angels, or making it competitive.

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Keep Gio in AAA

He isn’t ready.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Jul 4, 2008 4:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

His stats don't suggest it

That’s for sure.

I’m just giddy about his stuff and his potential.

by BillMoresi on Jul 4, 2008 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, I think he's been fine

His ERA isn’t much over league-average for the PCL, most of the damage has come in high altitude environments (the AL has none of those) and he’s still King guys at a great rate while keeping the walks, if not to a minimum, under control.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 5, 2008 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

6 is a good idea with the lack of off days and extra road games Post allstar

but why rush Gio? Also Cust at First is not an option or the A’s would have tried it already. they are most comfortable with him in the OF and there probably not going to do anything funky. Its also time to send Barton down to regain his confidence. We need the extra offense one way or another to make a run and he’s had his shot this year. they have been patient enough. Im all for the youth movement also. All the veterens except Thomas can be cut loose one way or another to make room for the youth movement

by TheLC on Jul 4, 2008 7:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't like a 6-man rotation, simply because

all you do is get less out of Harden and Duke if they ARE healthy, while losing a reliever (and even if you don’t feel Gaudin is used enough, as I don’t, someone has to be the long-man so someone ELSE has to get under-used if Gaudin goes into the rotation).

The only way it works, IMO, is if you have 6 quality starters and no closer, and the pitcher whose day it is to throw in the bullpen serves as the “closer du jour”. Which is innovative, but doesn’t really come up very often since few teams have 6 good starters and those that do don’t usually happen to lack a closer.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 4, 2008 8:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Ordinarily I'd hate the idea of a 6-man rotation

But under the current circumstances I’d consider it, at least for those 20-games-in-20-days stretches we seem to catch in the busy part of the year.

The special circumstances that make this a plausible idea? Well, Smith, Eveland, Harden, and Duchscherer are all on pace to blow past – way past – their previous IP totals. Smith and Eveland are young, while Harden and Duke have serious medical issues in their all-too-recent past. As for Blanton – well, a longer rotation means fewer starts for Blanton, and that also seems to be a positive right now.

by Faust on Jul 4, 2008 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, apart from the one the A's are in right now

I believe there is only one other 20-game stretch this season.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 5, 2008 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well... the other option

is to keep duke & harden on a 5-man pace and keep everyone else on a six. Whoever is “next” in line serves as a long man, if needed, and if they are, they skip their turn while only moving up a guy from a sixth or seventh day to a 5th or 6th day which isn’t short rest. It keeps the 3/4 guys who probably should be watching their innings count fresh by giving them the occasional extra rest, keeps someone available as the long man without completely wasting them (see Gaudin) and gives you options to mix and match against opponents. Not saying they should or ever would do this, but it does have it’s advantages, but that also assumes that the extra rest wouldn’t screw up the routine of those guys and make them ineffective which is really the major concern of a six man.

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by DMOAS on Jul 4, 2008 9:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I was going to mention the "routine" issue -

plus the fact that if you slot guys in the way you describe, you won’t have someone available in long relief each game, which you absolutely need. All for what? To swap Smith and Eveland and Blanton for Gaudin sometimes?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 4, 2008 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not that I recommend the above

but while you won’t have a guy on his 5th/6th day fully rested as a long man, you will have a guy on his 3rd/4th day capable of giving you 4/5 innings or less of relief you expect to get out of a long man. That being said, while I was a fan of the 6 man rotation earlier, I think with the effectiveness of both Duke & Harden it’s a bad idea. If we were relying on only on of them with 5 guys of the blanton/eveland/smith/gaudin caliber I could see a case made, but with 2 guys clearly dominant when they pitch, you may want to give them an extra day here and there to keep them fresh and healthy, but you want to keep them in the most ideal position to succeed and that’s throwing regularly every 5th day.

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by DMOAS on Jul 5, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to go all PT on this, but wow

You suggest we should go to an unorthodox rotation (which does make some sense because we currently have 6 good starters) AND trade away one of our starters.

You suggest we should call up a kid who is clearly not confident enough in his stuff to succeed consistently at AAA and plug him into this rotation.

You suggest we should sit our best hitter (Cust) about half the time.

I think these are very bad ideas.

I do, however, completely agree with getting Brown and Hannahan off the roster.

by nevermoor on Jul 4, 2008 9:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

wait what

so disagreeing with someone’s idea is “going PT on someone”?

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 6, 2008 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, but I had the same reaction to this post's idea as PT often expresses

by nevermoor on Jul 6, 2008 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe

“react with incredulous dismay that a (presumably) informed adult could possibly express such an inane idea” is what he means by “going PT on someone”...

I don’t actually think this idea is that inane, although there are probably better ways to work around the innings problem than a per se 6-man rotation.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 6, 2008 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

right, exactly

I think it’s merited here. Especially as to limiting Cust’s playing time so severely

by nevermoor on Jul 7, 2008 6:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Usually during a week, there are 6 games. I suggested playing him 5. Once a week spelling in for Buck / Sweeney / Gonzalez, once a week spelling in DH for Thomas, and once a week for Barton 1st.

He would give young guys rest, only be exposed in the outfield 3x a week and would also have an off day once per week, which he obviously would PH at some point in the game.

I do not think it’s “insane” to give most regulars, especially young guys, one day off a week.

That is what the Mets plan to do for Reyes & Wright. Manuel spoke to rejuvinating them. I agree with him that young guys need extra rest.

Now Cust is an extremely valuable hitter when hes hot.

How valuable is he when he goes 0-4 with 3 K’s? He does that VERY often when he’s not hot. Now I’d rather see him K than ground into a double play, but please explain how 0-4 with his lack of defense helps our ballclub when hes not on fire?

I do not find my suggestion that radical, other than assuming Frank Thomas will be back & assuming Cust could play 1B if he can play LF.

I in fact find it more “insane” my proposition for a 6 man rotation.

by BillMoresi on Jul 7, 2008 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good lord, that is a weird bug

Re the actual idea: Cust can’t play first base. It’s just a non-starter as a concept. He is really, really bad at fielding ground balls—worse than he is at fielding fly balls, which is hard to believe.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 7, 2008 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

not to mention footwork

... arousing men to burst the chains under which monkeyish ignorance and superstition had persuaded them to bind themselves ... @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 7, 2008 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seriously? That is insane. He is horrible at defense!

Although, I must say, his outfield play has improved. He’s now a below average defender, upgraded from severely below average defender.

Well that would change my thinking on the whole playing time for Cust… ff we’re still in contention, and especially with no other big bats in the line up, Custs bat needs to be in there.

by BillMoresi on Jul 8, 2008 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

IF we went with a 6 man rotation

it wouldbe because Blanton wasn’t traded, and we decided to move Gaudin back to the Rotation, giving us a rotation of;

Harden
Duchscherer
Smith
Gaudin
Eveland
Blanton

But if you do trade Blanton, you just go with a 5 man with Gaudin in the rotation.

As for the offense, we really do need an upgrade.

If we want to get to the playoffs this year, we need upgrades at;
Outfield
Outfield
First Base
Third Base

With Chavez out, Thomas taking forever to come back, and Barton sucking, we really do need upgrades at all four positions. Cust can either DH or play OF, depending on which is acquired.

It might make a lot of sense to sign Barry Bonds and have him DH till Thomas gets back, then move him to Left Field and Cust to Right. It’d be a sketchy Defense, but not the worst that the A’s had ever had.

We could try to go for Jason Bay, who I think would be a nice addition. Though the person I’d like the most would be Grady Sizemore.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Jul 5, 2008 12:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You know who I'd like playing center?

Vintage Willie Mays.

Pipe dream, you say? Hey, it’s as likely to happen as them getting Sizemore.

If you need four upgrades to get to the playoffs, you’re not going to the playoffs and it wouldn’t be worth it if you did. Which is admittedly kind of my take on the current situation, but whatever. Better off just sticking with the guys who are already out there and praying that they improve/don’t regress.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 5, 2008 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What "routine?

I think it is relevant to point out that because of the numerous off days the A’s have had in the first part of the season that our starting pitchers have worked on 5 days rest relatively frequently. For example, Harden’s last start was only his 3rd this year on 4 days rest. From this it would appear that the starters are no more likely to be on a 4 or 5 day “routine” so far this year.

by Larry E on Jul 5, 2008 10:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

T-Buck

I would think that if he was ready to play every day for the A’s, he’d be on the MLB roster right now.

by EddieVegas_NRAF on Jul 5, 2008 11:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

At this point it may be best for him at AAA with Gonzalez & Sweeney playing so well.

Cust/Brown are both seeing a lot of time in left field.

When Frank Thomas returns, Cust will see a TON of time in left field.

For the sake of innings, it makes sense for this season that 1 of the 3 will have to be at AAA, although I’d love to watch that young outfield now. I know offensively we need Thomas & Cust in the line up, though.

by BillMoresi on Jul 5, 2008 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gaudin.

didn’t hit a wall last year. he was pitching through an injury and that’s why there was such a difference between his first and second half numbers. if Smith and Eveland stay healthy, there’s a good chance they could continue to pitch well until the end of the season IMO.

"Ryan [Sweeney] has got the perfect baseball body..." -Mike Sweeney

by Christine on Jul 5, 2008 11:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/scorecard/08/30/brushback.pitchers/index.html

Example of the “rookie wall”

162 games in such a short time period is a LOT of games, and even pitching “only” 34 of those is a ton to ask a young guy who has not thrown these kinds of innings.

I believe all of the innings may have played a role in Gaudins injuries. In the article, it discusses Liriano and the reasons for his injury.

Some pitchers can handle the innings right away, but it’s a rarity. Kerry Wood & Mark Prior were both pushed too fast and neither one of them has recovered. It’s the reason Joba was pushed slowly into the rotation. Most young arms CANNOT suddenly take the jump in innings, nor should they be expected to.

This 2nd half will be a big concern on my part watching Eveland & Smith continue to pitch every 5 days. The first half there were a ton of off days, but the 2nd half will not be the same. I hope we go to a 6 man rotation for their sake.

Harden & Duke are the same way, they aren’t used to pitching a ton of innings, either. Harden already has a “dead arm”.

We should be very concerned about the starters and their innings.

by BillMoresi on Jul 5, 2008 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, for Gaudins first 4 seasons combined – 159 TOTAL innings pitched (with a max of 64 IP in ‘06)

In 2007 – 199 innings pitched

He did very well the first half, as we all know, and I for one felt he deserved a spot on the All Star team.

He began to unravel in the 2nd half. Yes, he dealt with injuries & yes it wasn’t smart to conceal them, but for all we know they were due to the workload. It is very demanding on your body to pitch every 5 days and to suddenly triple your workload in one season is A TON to ask of anybody. I think it was a combination of innings and injuries, with a very likely cause of his injuries being his workload and his body adjusting to it, that caused his 2nd half last year. Look at his september stats alone, I believe he started 6 times and was 0-5 with an ERA above 6 (this is off the top of my head, though – I know it wasn’t pretty, whatever it was)

by BillMoresi on Jul 5, 2008 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wrong

The cause of his injuries was a broken bone in his foot, which then altered his delivery so that he injured his hip.

Also, you need to count minor league IP as well as major league IP (it’s not like guys aren’t throwing hard down there). Last year was not out of line with Gaudin’s prior workload. It may not have been wise to have him make such a sudden jump in one year, but his arm had handled comparable innings loads in the past.

The A’s handled Gaudin execrably last year but the reason for that was that he was pitching hurt, not that he was pitching tired.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 5, 2008 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gotcha

Well a broken bone in the foot sure doesn’t sound innings related! Nor does a hip problem altering your delivery to deal with the foot issue.

Thanks for clearing up my injury concerns.

While Gaudin may have had a second half due to injuries and NOT innings, I still believe that the conventional wisdom that many young pitchers DO hit a wall in innings is often true (& often leads to injuries).

by BillMoresi on Jul 6, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think this discussion is academic

Because i believe that shortly after the AS break Harden will go the Cubs (or Mets or Phillies) and Gaudin will slide into rotation with Gonzalez waiting in wings if any of the remaining 5 go down. Now if the team wins every game this week I reserve the right to change this forecast, but i do believe the Sabathia trade will force the hand of at least one other NL club, with harden the best prize remaining. Beane will get just about what he wants somehow—and if the A’s are somehow still in contention – don’t be surprised to see him flip a prospect or two for a big bat somewhere by July 31—a la 1999.

by windyfelix on Jul 7, 2008 10:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs