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Catch and Release

Well, this is my first full-length post, so I thought I'd make it about a topic I have strong feelings about:  starting pitching.  It seems that starting pitching has become oblivious to the rest of the league's money system; average starters like Gil Meche get $11 million a year, while elite talents like Sabathia likely will be upwards of $20 million a year (and let's not even mention the Zito deal).  I think it's become possible that pitching as a whole is not worth paying for.  Here's my example:

Say we're talking about Tim Lincecum.  Lincecum, I believe, will NOT be a super two, meaning he has all of next year at a set salary, and then is eligible for arbitration in 2010, 2011, and 2012, and will be a free agent after the season of 2012.  Lincecum's agent has already dismissed the possibility of a contract buying out his arbitration years.  For a pitcher of Lincecum's talent, that's a good move, since he'll be making quite a bit in arbitration, or even in contracts procured before heading to arbitration.

Let's assume that Lincecum increases in ability marginally over the next four years (since he's already really good).  When he hits the market, given the current rate of inflation, and given the number of teams willing to give long contracts to elite talents, I'd have to think the contract would be something like 8 years, $200 million.  That is a BUCKET of money to give to one player.  Now consider the following:  say Lincecum is putting up a 2.50 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and 200 K a year before procuring such a contract.  This contract would cover Lincecum's age 28-36 seasons.  Over this period of time, what are the chances that he ever puts up stats worthy of $25 million a year?  Is 2.50/1.10/200 K even worth $25 million a year?  The best possible baseball move in that case would be for the Giants to trade Lincecum in or right before the final year of his original deal, getting a haul that would likely include at least one, probably two or more very highly-rated prospects, and allowing them to procure seasons of worth at a much lower price than keeping a pitcher around from 28 to 36.  It is FAR more likely that Lincecum would regress significantly at some point in that contract, immediately making it an albatross and a burden on the team's salary cap.

This brings up the point:  is ANY starting pitching worth "paying" for?  Is it EVER worth paying big money for a free agent pitcher?  If I think back on past free agent contracts given to starting pitchers, none immediately come to mind as a good deal for the team signing the pitcher.  Even extending pitchers can lead to problems, such as Chris Carpenter in St. Louis or Curt Schilling in Boston.  No, the point here is that the A's are doing it the right way:  when a pitcher's price tag even STARTS to encroach on being a poor value, trade that pitcher away, and get younger arms with the future ahead of them that you can control at a reasonable price for the next several years.  The problem is that, given this point of view, I am excited by the prospect of Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, et. al. coming up and dominating for the next several years; however, in reality young star pitchers are a Catch-22.  If they are great, they will either cost six arms and 22 legs to keep, or you'll trade them away inside of seven years.  If they suck...well, that's self-explanatory; obviously you'll be disappointed.

In conclusion, I am excited for the coming of our young pitchers, and will enjoy them while they're here, but it's tough knowing the future isn't a bright one when thinking about the future of pitching and its projected contract value in baseball.

 

As a side note, this could all change.  You know what needs to happen?  Once, just ONCE, a star pitcher needs to take a lower contract than he's worth given the current market and rate of inflation.  Other contracts will be based on such a contract, and it would allow the pitching market to regress back toward the mean (otherwise known as reality).  This would be great, but it is against everyone's logic to go against the grain, seemingly more so in baseball than any other sport.  Take a lesson from Gilbert Arenas:

"I looked at like this: There is nothing I can do for my family with $127 million that I can't do with $111 million"

Thanks for reading; let me know your thoughts on the plight of young pitching and the future of baseball!

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Nice post GW

I think you may be on to something there. What I would like to see the A’s do with their new young talent is to keep them around longer than 5-6 years. I’m not saying you overpay for all of them, especially pitchers, but at some point there has to be something that your team builds around. I understand the frustration of many A’a fans and I am optimistic about the future.

However, at what point does the future begin to become the present with sustainability? I sincerely hope the A’s brass is getting the new ballpark deal done sooner than later because otherwise we’re all gonna be looking at the same thing 5 to 6 years down the road.

Specifically, on your pitcher’s salary/future buying/selling…...I don’t think the “big spending teams” will ever truly stop spending so some club is always likely to overpay for a prime free agent pitcher. You would think, though, that in Tim Lincecum’s case, the Giants woukd do everything they could do in their power to lock that kid up for many tears to come.

You’re right, though: If he were to head into his last year before free agency without a new contract/extension then it would make more sense for the Giants to trade him for a megahaul of prospects.

Cheers mate! -M-Rod

by mrod on Jul 26, 2008 5:25 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I would love to see the A's follow the Rays model

of the longish-term contracts they gave to Shields and Longoria. They have both of those guys at a cheap price from the beginning to end of their primes. The A’s lack the elite talent that the Rays have, but even that type of contract for Carlos Gonzalez or maybe Gio/Cahill/Anderson if things go well would make a ton of sense.

That’s what I’d like to see the A’s do: Not more Chavez-type contracts (though I think that was a good contract), but extending promising players early in their careers beyond the 6th year of control.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 26, 2008 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly my comrade

I am hoping that is what the long term plan is for the A’s in their new ballpark era. We’ve got studs, too. It’s just that most of them are pitchers, ya know?

by mrod on Jul 26, 2008 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Longoria contract was ridiculous

...ly smart. You better not whiff on your evaluation of a player if you’re going to do that though. It was brilliantly designed; however, I can’t see him making it all the way through that without demanding a new deal.

by Gallagher's Watermelons on Jul 26, 2008 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent post

One of the best (maybe even the best) FA pitcher signings in recent was…. Tim Hudson. He’s been great, and the contract is not that huge at all, but I guess that’s your point: recent developments indicate that his two-years-younger clone who did the same thing could have made twice as much this past offseason.

In general, though, I agree with you. Hitters are a much better bet in terms of FA signings than pitchers. Pitchers are a lot more injury prone and even starting at a very young age their stuff tends to deteriorate over time, whereas hitters tend to improve up to to their (earlier (I think)) primes and lose value much more slowly.

I would imagine, though, that pitchers of a certain type or types (I don’t know what those would be) could be considered good bets for a big-money FA signing.

To conclude: Gallagher’s Watermelons, you are an excellent addition to AN, and those don’t come along too often!

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 26, 2008 5:26 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think in general

Hitters have a much better history of continuing to improve past their initial contract than pitchers. Hudson’s contract is a deal considering the market, but has he really even been that great for Atlanta? They could’ve gotten similar numbers for almost zero cash by buying Chad Gaudin from Toronto for super-cheap. The same goes for relievers; the Padres got Heath Bell, Cla Meredith, Mike Adams, and Josh Banks for next to nothing. Even if you aren’t getting exactly equal production, what’s more likely to be worth the cash: a $700,000 hitters and a $12 mil pitcher, or a $12 mil hitter and a $700,000 pitcher? I think it’s easily the latter.

And thanks man, I appreciate it. If you post on the ESPN boards, I am Kerpau over there.

by Gallagher's Watermelons on Jul 26, 2008 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

TIm Hudson has been much better than Chad Gaudin

No disrespect to Chad intended, just the facts.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 26, 2008 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are you being serious?

The Braves could have gotten similar numbers from Chad Gaudin in replacement for Tim Hudson?

Hudson’s ERA+ and IP with the Braves, year by year, and yes innings pitched counts too: 120 (192 IP), 91 (218.3), 128 (224.3), 130 (142 and counting).

Except for that one bad year in 2006, during which he still ate innings like a 4th starter, Hudson has been pretty much everything the Braves could have expected out of him, great AND durable.

Chad Gaudin, and Billy Beane before Gaudin was traded, and Jim Hendry now, in their wildest dreams, wouldn’t contend that Gaudin is just as good as Hudson.

You mention that the Padres got their relievers for nothing. Sure, taking a bunch of unknown hard throwing guys, and starting them in the bullpen is usually a good strategy. But relievers are not starters. A guy who might make a good reliever, with one good pitch a 98mph fastball, isn’t going to cut it as a starter. And even the hard throwing strategy is no guarantee of success. The WS tried that in 2007. They picked up cheap hard throwing guys, threw them against the wall, and hoped that enough would stick. None did.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 27, 2008 3:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

One of the best (maybe even the best) FA pitcher signings in recent was…. Tim Hudson.

I don’t know that I’ll ever get over losing Tim Hudson for fertilizer…....

Man, I’m still fucking pissed about that trade! That is one guy the A’s should have held onto but penny-pincher dirtbag Schott knew he was gonna have to pony up some cash to keep Huddy around.

Huddy said something about that in “Aces” at the end of the year (or sometime during his last season) alluding to “They’re gonna have to open their fucking wallets!” .....or something to taht effect.

We miss you Huddy and love ya even more!!!!

by mrod on Jul 26, 2008 5:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Huddy was all of the injury risk Duchscherer is -

still he was still the one out of the “Big 3” I wanted Oakland to keep. I can understand, though, why Billy didn’t take that chance – Dye and Chavez show you why.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 26, 2008 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And this is all in retrospect too...

Zito’s now crap in SF and Mulder appears done in St Louis, but when we all had them, it appeared that, of the three, Hudson was the one who would break down. He was small, he put A LOT of torque on his body, he would get (and I imagine he still gets) so worked up before a start. It seemed like he could likely fall apart while we had him, much less be pitching brilliantly five years later.

If Cust is a "horrible hitter", what does that make Suzuki, Barton, Ellis, Crosby, Hannahan, Sweeney and Gonzalez?--WaddellCanseco
A combination of very young hitters, very poor hitters, and a unicorn.--Nico

by Leopold Bloom on Jul 26, 2008 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He also just went on the DL with a bad elbow, btw -

but his health has been great overall for the Braves.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 26, 2008 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

At the time...

...I felt Mulder was the one with the best chance at long-term success. Hudson seem a little too frail to hold up like that forever and Zito was/is too much of a head case. Mulder seemd strong and consistent.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver

by UncleLeo on Jul 27, 2008 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But

Huddy had grit…............

:(

by mrod on Jul 26, 2008 6:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

As far as your "taking a lower contract" point

It does happen somewhat frequently (the “hometown discount”). In that case players are giving up $$$ for the value of staying in the place they fell comfortable.

Absent some kind of return, however, I doubt you’ll see many voluntary pay cuts. Arenas certainly isn’t an example, as he’s doing a hometown discount in a capped league (so lowering his salary increases the odds he’ll have a semi-competent supporting cast). Also, I doubt there are many of us in the habit of taking less salary than is offered.

Otherwise, I think you’re absolutely right in your main point – especially for the A’s – that it is rarely (if ever) worth paying real money for pitching. The Coliseum, after all, makes average pitchers look good and good pitchers look great.

by nevermoor on Jul 26, 2008 6:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Valuable Starting Pitching ...

“OK, let’s talk about Harden. He is the first pitcher to post double-digit strikeouts in his first three starts for the Cubs, and the third Cubs pitcher since 1953 to reach double-digit K’s in three consecutive starts.”

by solotar on Jul 26, 2008 8:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Just you wait, though...

Funny how Harden is 0-1 with two no-decisions for the Cubs. That wasn’t supposed to happen when he joined a better hitting team. But Marmol probably wasn’t supposed to give up 5 runs in the 9th, either.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 26, 2008 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Question re: "or you'll trade them away inside of seven years."

What’s the average career of a major league player, pitcher or otherwise?

I’m thinking that if the A’s have a set of pitchers who rotate out every 7 years, is that so horrible?

In 2001, the A’s rotation was:
Tim Hudson
Barry Zito
Mark Mulder
Gil Heredia
Omar Olivares

2 of the 5 are out of baseball, Mulder appears to be done (unfortunately) and we’ve seen what’s happened with Zito….and Hudson has looked great 3 of the 4 years he’s been with the Braves but 2006 he had an ERA of 4.86 and looked like it was good that he was gone.

Is having a player for 7 years all that bad? Just a thought.

by Slappyfrog on Jul 26, 2008 9:52 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't understand this at all

Yes, big-money pitcher FAs are often - almost always - a bad deal under the current market conditions.

But … you seem to feel that … some superstar pitcher … should voluntarily take less money than everyone is offering him. Because … why?

You also seem to feel that these current market conditions will always obtain. I would seriously doubt that Lincecum (or any other pitcher) is going to get an 8-year deal at the end of his initial team’s control under the current regime. The. Market. Will. Correct. Itself. (Or. Bud. Will. Collude. With. The. Other. Owners. To. Correct. It.)

And, yeah, {gasp!} pitcher salaries keep going up! {gasp!!!!!} (Mysteriously, so do revenues. And franchise values.) So does the price of a loaf of bread. I don’t think Sara Lee is going to voluntarily, with no economic incentive, going to tell me she’ll take less of my money next year. (Hm. Perhaps I’ll make my own loaf of bread with some expensive red wheat berries I had grown in the Caribbean. And then sell my own loaves. Which seems to sort of be another of your points, but I’m not sure what it has to do with the loaf that I’ve baked and sold to someone else suggesting a discount price for itself when, sure, it’s about to get stale and moldy—but no other loaves are pricing themselves like that and no buyers are insisting on discount pricing like that.)

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 26, 2008 10:43 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You lost me on the bread analogy.

Could you re-explain another way? And I’m not being a smart-ass. I’m truly puzzled.

If Cust is a "horrible hitter", what does that make Suzuki, Barton, Ellis, Crosby, Hannahan, Sweeney and Gonzalez?--WaddellCanseco
A combination of very young hitters, very poor hitters, and a unicorn.--Nico

by Leopold Bloom on Jul 26, 2008 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was the least important part of the post

I kinda threw it in at the end. The main point is that players will continually price themselves out of reasonable budgets. Even though the money does keep going up, how many long veteran pitcher contracts are worth their money? Not many. The list further down on this page lists Derek Lowe and a bunch of Hall of Famers. Everyone even thought Lowe’s deal was terrible when he signed it; it only ended up a good deal because of inflation for the rest of the pitcher contracts.

Basically, the point is that in six years or so, we’ll have Cahill, Anderson, and company in the big leagues, but we’ll probably be already trying to shop them to avoid paying $15 million-plus a year for them.

by Gallagher's Watermelons on Jul 27, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The solution to this isn't to gripe and whine about the greedy players

The solution is to raise the MLB minimum salary to the point where it actually requires teams to put a reasonable amount of money into their team on the field. There’s not much reason at all for the minimum to be under $1 million a year at this point, and it could easily go to twice that without affecting the ability of any MLB team to turn a profit. With things as they stand, the Marlins could make money without drawing a single fan to the park.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 27, 2008 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't follow

I think a better solution would be a “franchise tag” option like the NFL (although not a full cap) so a team could keep one or two players at pretty high salary without buying the 45-50 year old seasons.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Jul 27, 2008 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point PT

I was thinking sorta the same thing…..

by mrod on Jul 27, 2008 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Huh?

What problem would that solve? Is there a problem that needs solving?

All you’ve said here is that teams could afford it, which is probably true, albeit irrelevant. You haven’t given any reason why it should be doubled other than saying there’s not much reason it shouldn’t.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver

by UncleLeo on Jul 27, 2008 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's a solution to the problem of "stars are overpaid, yet teams pay too little of their revenue in salaries"

If you don’t like what the market price of top-end players is, which apparently the OP doesn’t, you have two choices—screw the players with some sort of salary cap scheme, or screw the ownership with higher minimum wages.

I’d much rather screw the ownership…not least because it creates a better on-field product.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 27, 2008 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh.

I’d rather not screw anybody. I don’t see how raising the minimum puts a better product on the field. Seems to me it just raises the minimum, but it’s still the minimum. The marginal and new players don’t necessarily get any better because of it.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver

by UncleLeo on Jul 28, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd much rather increase minor league salaries.

It would be nice if the non bonus babies didn’t have such a hard time financially.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Jul 28, 2008 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Raising the minimum increases the financial rewards of pursuing a baseball career

relative to other sports, thereby potentially attracting more talent into the game.

And as nevermoor notes, raising minor league salaries would do even more in that regard. If a guy sees he can come out of high school and make fifty, sixty thousand a year for a while with a chance at a lot more, he’s going to be a lot more likely to sign on than if you have to sell him on a five-year apprenticeship at slave wages.

Instead baseball takes a penny wise, pound foolish approach—squeezing the most exploitable to feed ever bigger paychecks for the handful of superstars. And the player’s union, which under Donald Fehr’s administration only cares about the superstars, doesn’t say boo.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 28, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm...

...a couple thoughts…

- On the one hand, that does make some sense. More money would make almost anything more attractive, whether it be baseball or cleaning sewers. And there is fierce competition for talented multi-sport players.

- On the other hand, baseball has far more guaranteed contracts whereas football not so much. In football you start to slip and you’re out on your rear end. And basketball has much smaller rosters thus making competition for roster spots far more intense and less likely. I believe the average baseball career is longer than the average football career, though I’m not 100% positive on that point. Baseball, by many objective measures, still seems to be the better (long term) financial bet, all other things such as talent being equal. Yet, inner city kids are still flocking to football and basketball and ignoring baseball, so it’s not just about the money. There’s something else at work here, also. Maybe it’s the “pay your dues” in the minors aspect that discourages players, I don’t know.

- I agree wholeheartedly with nevermoor’s post about minor league salaries, though I didn’t read it from an attracting talent aspect. I read it from a decent livable wage aspect. If anybody is exploited, it’s minor leaguers.

- I’d hardly call a major league minimum salary of $400K exploitation or somehow the union not caring.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver

by UncleLeo on Jul 28, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder, if the A's were to pursue FA SP

if they could market the Colieum effect.

‘Give us your 3 best yrs at submarket rate and benefit from the stronger pitching stats from the Coliseum. After that period, feel free to cash up with some team will to overpay for what will be declining stats.’

by Rickeyfan on Jul 26, 2008 11:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Lincecum will be a Super Two

He did not come up until mid-May of last season.The Giants were not stupid, they got their extra year of control out of him.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 26, 2008 11:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

very insightful...

unlike my post last night. Seven years in baseball is a lifetime. How many 7-year dynasties have you ever seen in baseball. I guess the Yanks come the closest in my lifetime, but pitching comes and goes.

Yes, you might get an ungodly freak, once out of 10 times, who is worth it, but the 3 that fall off a cliff, the 2 that are barely passable, the 3 most fans are happy with… and the Zito… ummm… yes, signing pitchers to big, long-term contracts is a bad idea.

But, I think that’s true of most baseball players. Of course, Giambi was doing okay for the Yanks this year.

But, anyway, this is exactly why I don’t expect Beane to sign Duke or Ellis to an extension. They’re aging, they’re expensive… they’re replaceable.

Foolsh, the most insane regular poster on AN since oaktoon left - salb

by FoolshGame22 on Jul 27, 2008 1:19 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, not exactly replaceable

I’m not sure we’ll have an equally stud 2B soon, and no guarantees on the SP either. But I agree with what you said for the most part.

by ohmangoAs on Jul 27, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Firstly

there’s no salary cap in baseball. This is not MLB.

Secondly, why should a pitcher say “I looked at like this: There is nothing I can do for my family with $127 million that I can’t do with $111 million”?

Do you hear Wolff, or Jeff Loria, or the Nuttings of Pittsburgh say, “I looked at like this: There is nothing I can do for my family with $500 million that I can’t do with $300 million”?

Why should the players take less money if the owners don’t?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 27, 2008 2:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Because unlike owners,

players can be, “Miggied”. Do you really think Tejada would be as insistent on a maximum value contract now as he was back when the Orioles signed him? He’s a competitor who banished himself to second tier teams for the duration of the contract. If your a person to whom competition is meaningful, you would be very careful in pursuing a contract based on its monetary value alone. Unless you are going to sign with huge market teams, you just might be relegating yourself to obscurity.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jul 27, 2008 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

I’ve always used who a FA signs with as one measure of how important winning is to them. Quite often, the difference in money isn’t all that much, yet some players will pick the better team and some players will pick the larger dollar numbers. It’s not always that simple, but many times it is.

I have read, though I forget where, that Tejada regrets having signed with the O’s.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver

by UncleLeo on Jul 27, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

i.e.;

Tony Phillips. He left the champion A’s after 1989 to sign with the 103-loss Detroit Tigers. I always questioned his priorities after that.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver

by UncleLeo on Jul 27, 2008 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fine.

In that case, should you also not use whom an owner signs as an FA as one measure of how important winning is him?

The A’s signed Emil Brown. Should you draw the conclusion that winning isn’t important to them?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 27, 2008 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For those who lack objectivity, sure.

First off, Emil isn’t that bad, regardless of emotional fan frustration.

Second, a team may have differing goals. Some teams don’t really care if they win or not. In the A’s case, this year they weren’t expecting to win, so the signing of a lesser player could have been intended as a top-gap measure to keep the team from totally tanking while the kids learn.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver

by UncleLeo on Jul 27, 2008 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The analogy doesn't work.

Emil was not a big name free agent looking for a job. He was a journeyman ballplayer looking to catch on somewhere. For the A’s, he was merely filler for a temporary hole.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jul 27, 2008 6:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's a different issue

That’s in the same vein as hometown discounts. It’s entirely rational for a player to sign with a very good team for less money because they value the chance to play in October. The player is still making the deal with the most value to them.

What’s irrational (because there’s no salary cap in baseball) is to expect the player to sign with any team for less than that specific team is willing to offer.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Jul 27, 2008 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My point is that, if you're going to judge a player by this standard

you need to judge owners by this standard too.

If you expect players to take less money, then why don’t you expect owners to make less of a profit?

If you judge a player’s desire to win by whom they sign with, then why don’t you judge an owner’s desire to win by the payroll of his team?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 27, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Owners sometimes do

Take on more salary than they can afford to win it all (the Marlins did it twice with great results).

I don’t understand why people are ignoring the distinction between money and value. Every player and owner should maximize their value, but they have complete discretion as to what the components are. If “staying in Oakland” is worth $2M to them, they aren’t being noble taking a $10M A’s contract instead of a $12M Pirates offer.

"There's never enough time to do all the nothing you want" -Bill Watterson

by nevermoor on Jul 27, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Selig was one of thoe owners, IMHO

He always seemed to me as one who felt he won the world series if his P&L margin was the best in baseball.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver

by UncleLeo on Jul 27, 2008 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Then there's Steinbrenner.

I don’t doubt his commitment to winning. Or the Red Sox for that matter.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jul 27, 2008 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just off the top of my head,

a good contract for an FA starting pitcher: Derek Lowe. $36M / 4. For the duration of that contract, year by year ERA+ and IP totals: 114(222 IP), 124 (218IP), 118 (199.3), 111 (129.3 and counting).

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 27, 2008 3:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Impressive detail

for off the top of your head.

by RIPHalsey on Jul 27, 2008 3:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The name was off the top of my head

the numbers obviously needed checking. Otherwise the best I could have come up with was Derek Lowe, around 110-120 ERA+ of around 200IP.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 27, 2008 3:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Funny also

That Lowe’s contract was considered terrible at the time, but looks good now due to inflation around him.

by Gallagher's Watermelons on Jul 27, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux were good FA deals as well.

Also Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, John Smoltz, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina… Not all changed teams, but all cost FA rates. As with position players it’s usually a good idea to spend FA dollars on HOFs or near HOFs, and usually a bad idea otherwise.

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 27, 2008 8:24 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

tim wakefield

The Red Sox have a perpetual $4M team option. For as long as they need Wakefield, they just keep paying him the same rate. And they can just stop anytime they feel like it. That’s a pretty good way to add a league-average starter to the back of your rotation.

by colin on Jul 28, 2008 10:51 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

...and the union hates it.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver

by UncleLeo on Jul 28, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gilbert Arenas

Despite this guy’s quirkiness, he is an awesome talent and a joy to watch. I am a long-time Bullets/Wizards fan and I appreciate how Gil (other than MJ unretiring) has made the team relevant again. Occasionally he will blurt out some non-sense (esp in his blog), but this guy is more rooted to the average fan (aka the guys on the streets) than most superstar athletes do.

Sample:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=c7BKPLcCjPw

by arch on Jul 28, 2008 11:47 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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