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Duchscherer to White Sox talks heating up

I haven't seen this posted anywhere yet, but I feel it's worth noting:

According to The Score, WSCR-AM 670, talks between the A's and White Sox are "heating up." With Jose Contreras hurt and mostly bad, it looks like the Sox want Duke.

Star-divide

The names being discussed coming back to Oakland: 3B Josh Fields and LHP Aaron Poreda.

The deal has not officially happened, but it was reported as a breaking news bit. It wasn't just a fan calling in with speculation. I would not have posted if I didn't feel that the "rumor" had merit.


For what it's worth, Aaron Poreda was ranked the #3 prospect in the White Sox system behind Gio and DLS by John SIckels. Fields didn't qualify for his rankings, but he probably would've been a top 5 guy. This would mean that in 2 trades, the A's will acquire 5 of the top 6 prospects the White Sox had before 2008.

Aaron Poreda - L/L - 6'6" 240 - 21 years old

This year at A+ Winston-Salem, Poreda went 5-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 12 starts. 46 Ks, 18 BB, 1 HR in 73.1 IP. He was then promoted to AA Birmingham where he's gone 1-2 with a 3.95 ERA in 7 starts. 30 Ks, 11 BB, 3 HR in 41 IP.

Josh Fields - R/R - 6'1" 220 - 25 years old

Last year, Fields proved he belongs in the majors. In his first real time in the majors, he put up an OPS+ of 101, was 7th in ROY voting, and had 23 HR in just 373 ABs. Of course, he also struck out 125 times. The Sox still think Joe Crede is a great player though (and they wouldn't trade him to SF for Dave Roberts), so Fields has been playing in Charlotte all season where he's struggled a bit: .248/.325/.450. He was hurt for a while earlier in the year, but he's healthy now.

Just to say it one more time, this trade, as I type this, has not happened. But whatever "talks are heating up" means, that's what the report said. I couldn't find a link , but if I do, I'll edit the post to include one.

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Bracing for yet another blow.

I’m numb to it by now. I’ll be sad if they trade Bobby…..I’ll have no one left to vent on. That’s all I have l left this season.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jul 24, 2008 2:57 PM PDT reply actions  

I wonder if the blow will be

in the teeth or in the groin this time?

by A'sfaninNC on Jul 24, 2008 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's not the same.

With Bobby, I have a long standing relationship. DFA is just another ship passing in the night.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jul 24, 2008 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Are you saying he was a Titanic mistake?

You prefer a magic trick, instead? Watch me make this pencil disappear.

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 24, 2008 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Where as Bobby is the Lusitania.

I want to fire the damn torpedo myself.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jul 24, 2008 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mixing modes of transportation

Huston is the Hindenburg.

You prefer a magic trick, instead? Watch me make this pencil disappear.

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 24, 2008 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Seems like it's not enough coming back to the A's

for giving up Duke.

My hope is that Beane can persuade Kenny to take Embree, Crosby, and DFA in this deal as well.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 2:57 PM PDT reply actions  

For Duke? Ugh.

In Zonis’ rosterbation thread, I just posted about Fields.

He’s a bad fielder, an OK hitter who strikes out a ton but doesn’t have a high OBP, and he’s got pop.

The return on Duke had better be more than just those two guys.

by mikev on Jul 24, 2008 2:58 PM PDT reply actions  

I like Fields, but I don't love him

And Poreda was #3 in the Sox system (#1 after the trade), but I’m not sure he’s a top 10 pitching prospect in the A’s system. I think Keith Law kept him out of his top 100.

Those are just the names being batted around though. It doesn’t mean those are the guys, and it doesn’t mean those are the only guys. The thing is, the Sox don’t really have much else to give, especially in the way of position players. John Shelby and Jimmy Gallagher don’t do anything for me.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2008 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wouldn't it be wonderful

if there was a PTBNL and his name ended up being Gordon Beckham???

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 3:00 PM PDT reply actions  

Can't happen

Sorry to burst your bubble.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

You are correct

My bubble is burst.

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

+1

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 24, 2008 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

+ 1 more

If they cannot afford Duke then there should be no deal. Just wait and see what a team that really needs him is willing to give to get him. LOL

Charlie Brown GO A'S WIN

by Charlie Brown on Jul 25, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

I read somewhere that the White Sox

may trade O.Cabrera. How about Duke, Embree and Crosby for Fields, Poreda and Beckham.

You prefer a magic trick, instead? Watch me make this pencil disappear.

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 24, 2008 3:04 PM PDT reply actions  

Paul corrected me

and he’s right. Beckham hasn’t signed yet to my knowledge, and a draft pick can’t be traded within a year of signing.

A PTBNL only has a six-month window.

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Damn

You prefer a magic trick, instead? Watch me make this pencil disappear.

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 24, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Your new sigline awesome,

and so was the film. Was anyone else amazed that Dark Knight was rated PG-13 though? Your sig is one of a few squeamish “R” worthy scenes in there. It’s not a warm and fuzzy film.

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

I got a lot of weird looks in the theater because of the pencil trick scene.

Everybody else was gasping in surprise, and I was laughing like a maniac.

by mikev on Jul 24, 2008 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

So was I

it was pretty funny.

'Who's that guy we had to release last year because he robbed a bank?'- Billy Beane
Sean Gallagher is my hero.

by Morgasm on Jul 24, 2008 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

When I saw it, pretty much the entire theater cracked up

But I went to a midnight IMAX opening, so I feel like the crowd was ready for that sort of thing. Not too many families or anything of that sort.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2008 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I laughed pretty hard. There were a few of us.

I generally bemoan the profusion of Mr Sabermetric Sporks in the Scrabble ranks who don't know the meaning or usage of 50% of the words they use. -monkeyball

by JediLeroy on Jul 24, 2008 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think it went as far as it could without getting an R

Dark Knight without Heath Ledger = good. Dark Knight with Heath Ledger = fantastic. I’ve said it before, but that was one of the ten best performances I’ve ever seen. Hell of a way to go out.

You prefer a magic trick, instead? Watch me make this pencil disappear.

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 24, 2008 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

But that's not his last work!

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus is something I really look forward to seeing. Ledger died during shooting of this film, and all of his scenes are supposedly going to be used. In addition, Johnny Depp, Colin Farrell, and Jude Law are also playing the character. I don’t know a lot about the film, but I’ve heard that the character the four play is such that it makes sense to have four different actors doing the part. It should be interesting to say the least.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2008 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have heard nothing about this

Thanks for the information. I am intrigued.

You prefer a magic trick, instead? Watch me make this pencil disappear.

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 24, 2008 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Since you seem to be in the know about Heath

I have a friend who insists that he really attempted to commit suicide and that his family and publicist spun it into this “accidental overdose” thing. What’s your take on that?

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

+1

Terry’s been on a big losing streak. I’m trying not to get my hopes too high for it …

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Gilliam?

Imagine waking up at 2 a,m. and thinking of Bobby on Greyhound somewhere in the Texas wastelands..."Does your little iddy biddy back hurt, Bobby?! Does it, you SOB?!" -Alox

by Leopold Bloom on Jul 24, 2008 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

yep

“Gilliam,” BTW, was my first choice for naming monkeyball jr, but Mrs M put the kibosh on that.

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

So you went with Raymond Luxury Yacht then?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Free Kraut Clemens Lamar Monkeyball

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

(I still think you should've gone with Sex Fruit)

Imagine waking up at 2 a,m. and thinking of Bobby on Greyhound somewhere in the Texas wastelands..."Does your little iddy biddy back hurt, Bobby?! Does it, you SOB?!" -Alox

by Leopold Bloom on Jul 24, 2008 9:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Supposedly

The characters alternate between the real world and different fantasy worlds. The real world scenes were shot with Heath. The green screen scenes had yet to be shot.

by richwol1 on Jul 24, 2008 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Definitely R-worthy.

While the film was extremely dark and disturbing, I do like that message of hope for the inherent goodness of most people.

The scenes where he described his scars were also a little too heavy for PG-13.

I generally bemoan the profusion of Mr Sabermetric Sporks in the Scrabble ranks who don't know the meaning or usage of 50% of the words they use. -monkeyball

by JediLeroy on Jul 24, 2008 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

or, to put a finer point on it, sexuality

The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.

by rebus on Jul 24, 2008 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ehhhhhhh

They pulled back some, like the part when he cut that dude’s mouth and the camera cut away. I would have liked to have seen what Nolan could have done with an R rating.

Great movie, though.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

Cabrera would be traded if they get a 2B

The rumor was that White Sox were looking to trade Cabrera to the Dodgers if they could land a 2B (Brian Roberts), so they could move Alexei Ramirez to SS.

So I suppose you could do Duke + Ellis and do the same thing. According to Chris Dial’s numbers, Roberts has produced 15.6 runs above average (offense plus defense) this year, Ellis was at 13.0, while Cabrera was at 11.4, so Ellis still upgrades the White Sox over Cabrera, assuming that Ramirez really can play SS about as well as he plays 2B.

So if we want to dream about Cabrera being involved, a three-way with the Dodgers would look something like this:
Duke + Ellis to White Sox for Poreda, Fields, Cabrera and more prospects (Jose Martinez or somebody)
Cabrera to Dodgers for even more prospects (maybe LaRoche if you include Fields)

by kenarneson on Jul 24, 2008 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have a hard time believing a league average 2B (Ramirez) could move to SS and still be league average.

But, hey, if that’s what the Sox want to do, no worries from me.

I still think the A’s are overpaying if it’s

Duke/Ellis

for

Poreda/LaRoche/lesser White Sox prospects

I just don’t see it for the Sox. There comes a point where you just can’t keep piling on C, C+ prospects to add value to a deal.

The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.

by rebus on Jul 24, 2008 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow it's Ken Arneson!

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd hate to see Duke go...

and really don’t think this deal gets us much in return

"And sometimes, when it seems like all hope is gone, Life tosses you a special gift of a baseball game" . 7/10/08 BaseBallGirl headline

by LongTimeFan on Jul 24, 2008 3:08 PM PDT reply actions  

Can Beckham even be a PTBNL?

Doesn’the have to wait 6 months until after he signs AND then another 6 months before he can be named in a trade as anything but a PTBNL.

And please just let this be radio babble or at least Street instead of Duke. Fields doesn’t excite me much and Poreda is not the superstar potential bat we need! And since I’ve just typed that, I bet it is true.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by vignette17 on Jul 24, 2008 3:11 PM PDT reply actions  

+1

I’d be okay with Poreda, Fields, and another spec in return for Street. Not Duke though.

by mikev on Jul 24, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Is that because you don't think much of Poreda?

We already know you view on Fields.

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would be pleased to get Poreda,

but since I think Fields is not really worth much of anything, I don’t like the trade Street for (Poreda + some dude + some other dude).

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah

Me three.

"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.

by andeux on Jul 24, 2008 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would hope for another player or two

on top of those original two in the event Duke gets dealt. But thats just me.

by A'sfaninNC on Jul 24, 2008 3:15 PM PDT reply actions  

Don't want to see that happen

Just what we don’t need

Another strike out machine. Hit 23 HR and then goes to minors….......

by Trainman on Jul 24, 2008 3:16 PM PDT reply actions  

Poreda is like the left-handed H. Rodriguez

Big guy, huge fastball, not a whole lot else at this point. But he has plus-plus velocity for a lefty.

Fields is a good buy-low candidate. Thing is, I don’t know that trading Duchscherer would be buying low. I’m not a fan of trading guys to teams with weak farm systems. I’d much rather deal him to a team with a broad talent base like Tampa.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 3:17 PM PDT reply actions  

I agree

And Duke doesn’t have to be traded right now. He’s not a free agent after the season. As with the Harden deal, I think Beane is selling off guys at a time when it’s not totally necessary. I’m all for the rebuilding process, but some of this seems like Beane is panicking and taking less than he might be able to get down the road. For Harden there is the obvious injury risk, so I’ve come to accept that (though I still think the A’s should’ve gotten more). For Duke, why not hold out a little longer?

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2008 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

The one thing I can think of

is if he knows that one of those players is coveted by another team in a potential deal, eg if he could put Poreda instead of Brett Anderson in a Jason Bay package.

Just have to wait and see how things play out, I guess.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Even if that doesn't work

Getting Poreda would make giving up one of the other pitchers a little less damaging to the system.

The sad part is that I can’t really even say “Billy should get more from the White Sox” because they don’t have more to give.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2008 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe he's getting Fields and that Swisher character.

I hear he’s a decent first baseman or somethin. Plays a little outfield too.

by mikev on Jul 24, 2008 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Duke and DLS for Fields, Poreda and Swisher

“You give us our lemon back, we give you yours.”

[Yes, I know this “deal” isn’t close to fair to Chicago.]

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Duke and Street

for
Fields, Poreda, and Swisher…

damn, I might do that one…

"All managers are losers, they are the most expendable pieces of furniture on the face of the Earth."- Ted Williams

by Gaijin_Suketto on Jul 24, 2008 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Now the Sox have a gaping hole

Which could be filled by DFA! Toss him in!

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2008 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

No

It’s too important to me that WE be the ones to DFA him. I’ve been wanting it for too long.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

But that mutes the impact of the DFA

Still, I’d pay good money for the form used to DFA DFA, so there’d still be that (unless MLB does it all electronically, which would be sad/smart of them)

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly

The reason why I don’t like hearing “White Sox” mentioned is that just hearing that puts an immediate cap on how good the plausible return package could be. Same reason why I didn’t want the A’s to trade Haren to the Mets. And frankly, the A’s look like they made out a heck of a lot better than the Twins did in that set of deals.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

They certainly got the better Carlos

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2008 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

PT and other ANers with legal expertise:

Nevermoor posted a very interesting link in another thread, noting that California state law prohibits personal service contracts that are longer than 7 years in length.

Does this apply to professional athletes though? I seem to vaguely recall Magic Johnson signing a 20-year deal at one point (that was eventually re-structured at some point obviously).

I’m curious if a pro baseball team in CA can really only sign an FA to a seven-year deal.

Even more helpful, does anyone have a link to what the restrictions are in other states?

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 3:39 PM PDT reply actions  

per PT's sigline ...

... what about impersonal service contracts?

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Another question....

Are the contracts specific to the state in which the team they sign for plays? Or are they singed under the auspices of MLB, which is headquartered in NY city? How could you trade for a player with an “illegal” contract in your state if they are with specific teams?

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jul 24, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's possible that if you traded for a player with an "illegal" contract

that player could sue and have a judge rule the contract unenforceable beyond the 7-year window. Which would, in practice, give the player an opt-out clause at that point similar to what A-Rod had last offseason.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

So to answer the question....

the contract is signed with the individual team, with that teams state laws as the controlling factor? Seems that there would be an, “unfair” advantage to be had in there somewhere.

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jul 24, 2008 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, you're right

And it would, except that contracts that long are so rare it doesn’t matter (and anyone holding out for 10 years wants Yankees/Red Sox money anyway).

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting.

All California teams were negated from competing for A-Rod’s service when he signed his original deal with Texas?

Seems to me that MLB would enact rules to avoid this sort of conflict. Interesting none the less! Thanks!

"You may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat."--The Boys of Summer

by alox on Jul 24, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

And that scenario is why I keep saying that collective bargaining

and anti-trust exemption probably make it so that that Cal. law does not apply to ballplayers.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

ripeness?

would the court take the case (in years 1-7)? might be void for ripeness. the contract’s only at issue when one party tries to enforce it. So in years 1-7, there’s no issue. After the 7th year, then there’s more likely a case.

*note: not a lawyer, just pretending to be…

by rollierollieOxenfree on Jul 25, 2008 3:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

“Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, my client was fired for smelling bad at work. This clearly violates his riparian rights!”

“Counsel, do you have any idea what riparian rights are? They have to do with water allotments, not B.O…. You’re not really a lawyer, are you.”

“No, just pretending to be.”

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

"My client had his nose chopped off due to the defendant's negligence!"

“Your client’s nose was chopped off? How does he smell?”

“Terrible!”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Me, after reading a Bar essay I should have studied for

Jumps up, sprints out of the room, yelling “I’m a covenant running with the land”

by nevermoor on Jul 25, 2008 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

My take

Is that there would probably never be a case. The player would perform for 7 years, get paid, and then declare he was opting out after year 7 (citing this law). The owner, knowing about the law, would negotiate a new contract.

The only way I see a lawsuit is if the Owner somehow thought the law was invalid and sued for contract damages. The player wouldn’t have to sue to get out of the contract.

by nevermoor on Jul 25, 2008 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

I believe it's within the state

Because one perk to playing for a Texas or Florida club is that you don’t have to pay any state income taxes (unless laws in one of these states have changed recently). If all the players were employed by MLB in the state of New York, I don’t believe this would be the case.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2008 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Income taxes are paid based on where you are employed when you earn the money

So if you work out of Oakland, even if it is for a New York based company, you pay California’s taxes.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 24, 2008 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

what about away games?

I know when I worked out of state, for the same job and same company, just days spent out of state, I had to pay local state taxes, so would the players then have to pay state income taxes in each state they played away games in?

by sypher1504 on Jul 25, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure ...

there’s been some ado about it in the past … but I don’t recall the outcome … when I’ve worked out of state, though, I never paid out of state taxes …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, athletes pay state income tax for away games

Each state has the right to tax income earned in that state. Different states have different rules for how to determine what income is "sourced" in the state. In general, states tend to conform to each other, and there are established standards for allocating professional athletes’ income which most states will accept, but there are exceptions and lots of wiggle room in the details.

The state of residency has the right to tax all income earned by the resident. Most states allow you to deduct income taxed in another state. So, for example, if you live in California and pay tax to New York for games played in New York, California will give you a credit so that you aren’t taxed by both states on the same income. Note that you don’t get a credit for out-of-state income that is not taxed by the other state. So, for example, if you live in California and play some games in Texas, which has no state income tax, California will still charge you state tax for those games.

The problem is that each state can define its own sourcing rules, so if your state of residence defines it more inclusively than the away-game states, you could end up paying taxes in two states on the same income. I don’t know if they still do, but at one time the State of Illinois had regulations declaring that all income earned by an athlete who is an Illinois resident under contract with an Illinois team counts as Illinois income. This was challenged in court (by Sammy Sosa) and the state won. The decision was appealed and I don’t know what happened after that.

Taxability of out-of-state income is a muddy topic generally with lots of lawyerly wrangling, but neither the taxpayers nor the tax collectors bother much with small-time cases. Professional athletes get a disproportionate amount of attention because of the combination of (a) they get big salaries, and (b) it’s very easy for the state to track their whereabouts when working.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jul 25, 2008 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nice

Thanks for the clarification.

by sypher1504 on Jul 27, 2008 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

No state income taxes here

and it shows in the schools! Yay!

Imagine waking up at 2 a,m. and thinking of Bobby on Greyhound somewhere in the Texas wastelands..."Does your little iddy biddy back hurt, Bobby?! Does it, you SOB?!" -Alox

by Leopold Bloom on Jul 24, 2008 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think this goes to the old "anti-trust" exemption

for baseball. I don’t think California law can trump the federal anti-trust exemption given to baseball way back when and confirmed in more recent cases (most notably in the Curt Flood case).

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nope

That’s a different issue entirely. You’re right that CA can’t prosecute MLB for anti-trust violations (for example, acting to preserve their monopoly) but the state can enforce contract law on individual player transactions.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not as convinced as you on this

Collective Bargaining gives employers and employees the right to bargain about certain things, notwithstanding the general applicability of laws. As some of us pointed out below, CBAs cannot generally do away with minimum protections like minimum wage, overtime, rest periods, etc. However, in baseball they frequently do away with general wage and hours laws.

For example, IWC Wage Order 2-2001 (Personal Service Wage Order in Ca) states that all employees must receive paid rest periods of ten minutes for every four hours of work and meal periods of 30 minutes for every 5 hours. In most cases, this is not followed in professional sports in California, especially considering the time they report to the park, warm up, get treatment, etc. Do professional athletes have wage claims based on missed rest periods and meal periods? No because the nature of their employment and the collective bargaining have made it so. I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just saying I think they maybe the CBA can or does deal with this. I’m just not sure.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Perhaps, but I think baseball players are in the group intending to be protected here

Along with movie stars, singers, etc.

You’re certainly right that the breaks/overtime stuff can be opted out of very easily, but I think the nature of sports contracts are exactly in line with the nature of film contracts in that giving a young guy a 15 year contract could force him to work at well below value for the second half of the contract.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

any team Jim Leyland manages should get smoke breaks

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

QoTM

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

You wer setting up the jokes to come, right?

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also, sometimes

Collective Bargaining Agreements can be at odds with statutory laws and regulations regarding employment, although CBAs cannot waive minimum statutory protections like minimum wage, overtime, and rest and meal periods.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

So that's why we have to pay DiNardo more than $8 an hour, right?

No matter how he plays?

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

That only goes one way

The MLBPA could agree to a minimum wage of $4/hour, but federal (and CA) law would trump it. Since the MLBPA agrees to a much higher wage than federal law, however, it is not in conflict.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, it does

It was mentioned at one point in the Zito situation—some experts actually thought he might get an 8-year deal from the Mets or someone else, and that CA teams would not be able to match that.

Just having an antitrust exemption doesn’t exempt MLB teams from other labor laws. They still have to pay their minor leaguers the minimum wage, eg. (Not that they get much more than that.)

I haven’t actually read the law in question, however. It was not passed to apply to sports—it was originally prompted by the desire to regulate the movie and TV industry.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

What about

Steve Young’s contract with the LA Express?

"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.

by andeux on Jul 24, 2008 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

$36MM over 43 years? Am I reading that right?

AN legal team: How was that legal, given the law you cited?

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

annuity

I don’t recall the exact length of Steve’s USFL contract, but it was not of an unusual length. Most of the value of the contract was paid into an annuity, the payments of which begin (began?) at a set date, spanning a fixed term of years. The 43 years reflects the length of the contract plus the term of the annuity.

/also squandering my bar study time on AN.

by bruinhoo on Jul 24, 2008 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Welcome

It sure beats another practice MBE

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

thanks

That is very true, though the state topics/essays are my killer.

by bruinhoo on Jul 24, 2008 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think Steve Young's USFL deal was for 10 years though

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

If that was from 1983 or so,

the law may postdate the contract. (I don’t know. Perhaps someone with Westlaw or something could find that out.)

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

'Scuse me

I have more legal expertise than PT by however many years of law school he has left (even if I’m currently squandering my bar study time on AN).

It certainly does apply to professional athletes, but it doesn’t make the contract invalid. It just makes the contract unenforceable after 7 years. You could, theoretically, do an NFL style deal and sign CarGon to an 8 year $1 billion contract (with the vast majority in the 8th year) and just walk away after 7.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Actually, that would be a bad idea

See below. The employer can’t void the contract, the employee can. I think C-Gon would take the $980 million option on his 8th year.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yep, appears that way

I’d only read the first half of the law.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

I haven't read the law, but I think Billy wrote it terribly

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Having a no trade clause

would be very valuable to a player signing a 10 year contract with a California team - since they’d effectively have a perpetual opt out after year seven - unless they were traded outside of the state.

Could the player opt out and become a free agent mid season?

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 24, 2008 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, if it was just a 10 year deal

No, if it was a 7 year deal followed by 3 1-year player options (at least as I read the statute and with no additional research).

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

The player option and the opt-out

Strike me as always benefiting the player and never the team. Would you guys agree?

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure

But you could say the same about plate appearance incentives or health care. It’s just a part of the “total package” of a player’s contract.

In theory, the presence of a player option in a contract should cause the player to get less salary than he otherwise would, and a team option should cause him to get more salary.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Here's the text of the relevant statute:

2855. (a) Except as otherwise provided in subdivision (b), a
contract to render personal service, other than a contract of
apprenticeship as provided in Chapter 4 (commencing with Section
3070), may not be enforced against the employee beyond seven years
from the commencement of service under it. Any contract, otherwise
valid, to perform or render service of a special, unique, unusual,
extraordinary, or intellectual character, which gives it peculiar
value and the loss of which cannot be reasonably or adequately
compensated in damages in an action at law, may nevertheless be
enforced against the person contracting to render the service, for a
term not to exceed seven years from the commencement of service under
it. If the employee voluntarily continues to serve under it beyond
that time, the contract may be referred to as affording a presumptive
measure of the compensation.

So the employee could voluntarily continue to perform under a long term (7+) year contract but it wouldn’t be enforceable after the 7th year, assuming that the owners and player Union could not negotiate something different. I’m not convinced they wouldn’t be able to waive this, but I would need more info to definitively conclude that.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Labor Code section 2855

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Baseball players aren't exactly the type of employees

in need of minimum statutory protections concerning terms and conditions of employment.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but neither are movie stars

And that’s who the law was passed to protect.

Baseball players are the type of employees who could sign a contract obligating them to perform for less than their market value and thus be damaged.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's what free agency and anti-trust are all about!

It all goes back to anti-trust and collective bargaining and I don’t think it’s as clear cut as you’re making it. See above comment – I’m just not convinced of the applicability of this section of the LC to ballplayers.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fair enough

I certainly don’t have the research on it, so you’re right that I can’t be certain.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Where's the antitrust

issue in this discussion?

"Good or bad, I don't know. This is awesome." ~Nick Swisher

by humdinger on Jul 24, 2008 8:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

"minimum statutory protections"

No, but certain country singers were in need of protection from ballplayers for a different set of those …

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Speaking of Roger

is he going to be prosecuted for that? That’s just wrong if he isn’t.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Depends entirely upon the evidence (I imagine)

I’d never seen it supported by anything more than talking heads.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I guess whatever her name is (or her parents) would have to

somehow cooperate with the authorities, and it sounds like she is too enthralled with him for that.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

statute of limitations = nope

Even if the authorities had sufficient evidence to prosecute, the statute of limitations would have lapsed (if I remember crim law correctly) 2 years after she reached the age of consent, which was several years ago.

by bruinhoo on Jul 24, 2008 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

You can certainly correct me

but I’ve also read within those statutes that collective bargaining agreements are exempt for those sorts of laws.

In search of a new signature. Say something funny and you may see your comment here!

by DMOAS on Jul 24, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's the argument I'm making above

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

You could have an opt-out clause after the seventh year,

like A-Rod’s 10 year 252MM Texas deal. That would seem to cover the provisions of the statute.

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

I understand that Duke's value may not be that great

and maybe getting a team’s best pitching prospect plus a former solid hitting prospect is all he really is worth, but I would be much more content if the blueprint of a Duke deal was the reverse of this one:

top hitting prospect + former solid pitching prospect

"Do you know that the guy really doesn't like baseball all that much?" - J.P. Riccardi

by black beane on Jul 24, 2008 3:48 PM PDT reply actions  

...say, Andy LaRoche and Jon Meloan?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

absolutely

"Do you know that the guy really doesn't like baseball all that much?" - J.P. Riccardi

by black beane on Jul 24, 2008 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly.

Which is why it pains me so much that it won’t happen. It’s making TOO MUCH SENSE for it to be a deal.

by mikev on Jul 24, 2008 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

because colletti

and his front office is tough to deal with

by Asfan4ever723 on Jul 24, 2008 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Isn't the issue with the Dodgers that deals have to be payroll neutral?

It may be just a question of taking Nomar off their hands.

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

If that's the holdup

just take him and release him (or play him, whatever—it’d be a curiosity for the fans, if nothing else).

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

What position is he playing now?

SS? 3B? 1B? He would be better than whoever he replaced at any of those positions (assuming Chavez is on DL).

You prefer a magic trick, instead? Watch me make this pencil disappear.

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 24, 2008 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know...

Probably third for Oakland…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

if the A's received LaRoche and Nomar

Nomar could play first, at least while Barton is coming off injury, and LaRoche could go to third.

The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.

by rebus on Jul 24, 2008 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

LaRoche and Nomar replacing Bankston and Conrad

would at least make the ML roster look a little more like a ML roster.

You prefer a magic trick, instead? Watch me make this pencil disappear.

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 24, 2008 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mia Hamm, Special Assistant to the GM?

Sweet, love triangle!

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

then he could acquire Happ and Bill Hall ...

... after truncating the “ahan” from our third baseman.

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

meloan converted reliever

i’d take poreda

the diference is dodgers if A’s wanted more could offer hu, dejesus, mcdonald, elbert, etc maybe one of their lower minor bats

white sox dont have much of anything , just fringe guys like an egbert, getz, etc

by Asfan4ever723 on Jul 24, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, doy

I’d take Poreda too. But I’d take LaRoche over Fields.

Overall value is similar and the Dodgers trade fits the A’s needs better.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Frankly, it seems to fit the Dodgers needs better as well.

Since they do need a reliever, a SS, and who WOULDN’T want a pitcher like Duke in the rotation

by mikev on Jul 24, 2008 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

So is there a possible three-way deal with CWS and LAD

that could land Laroche and Poreda in Oakland?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Depending on how much Colletti's apparent dislike of LaRoche is real

it could theoretically be as simple as a one-for-one swap.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

What would they get? If Duke goes to the White Sox?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

(That is to say, A’s trade for Poreda and Fields, then trade Fields to LA for LaRoche.)

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

I see - but would the Dodgers

have a need for Fields with DeWitt as much in favor as Laroche is out of favor?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

DeWitt sucks

Maybe Colletti can see it, maybe he can’t. But I can’t see how anyone wouldn’t see Fields as an upgrade offensively.

And if he’s not upgrading there, perhaps he could upgrade their outfield, which currently features Juan Pierre.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm just thinking that a team tied for first place

(and nearly at .500!!!!) is looking to upgrade a current weakness, and so I don’t see them trading for a 3Bman right now when they need a closer, a “good hitter now,” etc.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good Hitter Now sounds like Bay.

They certainly have the prospects to get him. I wonder what the problem is.

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Screw this deal!

If Billy Beane takes those two from the White Sox he’s an idiot!
Duke is worth a king’s ransom and certainly would be worth more to the A’s in the next several years in anchoring a young starting rotation for probably well below market value.

Please, please, please, Billy…........re-sign Duke. Don’t trade our boy Duke~He’s the man!!!!!

by mrod on Jul 24, 2008 4:23 PM PDT reply actions  

Duke is 30, has been on the DL multiple times, and not pitching as well as his ERA suggests

And to those who suggest a rotations needs an older veteran to anchor it, Tampa’s oldest starter (Shields) is 26. And they will likely get younger with Pryce, etc.

You prefer a magic trick, instead? Watch me make this pencil disappear.

by Swooney's Left Foot on Jul 24, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

What does it mean that he's not pitching as well as his ERA suggests?

I have an idea, but what do you mean?

Not to take it out on you but it gets tiring to hear these types of comments. “The Angels are playing better than they should be” “The Angels should have X more losses” “Duke should regress to less stellar numbers” “The A’s should have X more wins.” Isn’t there something to be said for how you are actually performing versus how you “should” be performing?

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty" - every AL Manager to Bob Geren

by oaktownmario on Jul 24, 2008 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not if you're trying to predict future performance

Using Duke’s ERA to predict the rest of his season would be a bad idea. Using his peripherals (which suggest an ERA just north of 3 – of course, still a great ERA) is a better way to estimate future value.

As a way of describing past performance, I see your point. Certainly the 2001 Seattle Mariners were a great team. They won 116 games. That said, no one was too surprised when they regressed to their “expected” level and won only 93 games.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Duke has made his living hearing that

“He’s not pitching as well as his ERA suggests” and “he doesn’t throw hard enough” and “he won’t get through the order a third time” – and all the guy does is get hitters out. Over and over and over. In every role they ask him to perform.

No he won’t continue to post a 1.87 ERA. But he has pitched every bit as well as the ERA suggests, and he is an exceptional pitcher. How much more evidence do people need?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's no disrespect to Duke at all

He has been great so far. There is no reason to believe he will be either as great or less-than-great for the rest of the season.

If I’m trading for him, though, I’m trading for a 3.something ERA pitcher not a 1.8 (since I don’t get retroactive credit for his earlier starts. It’s the same principle as wanting Holliday but not at .950 OPS prices.

by nevermoor on Jul 24, 2008 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

+1

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 24, 2008 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, for starters

it hardly seems implausible to expect Duke to give up his career average BABIP rather than the insanely, unsustainably low BABIP he has given up this year.

Also, for the most part, outfield flies are generic. His HR/FB rate will regress causing him to allow more home runs.

Finally, if you just include the five “unearned” runs from that game where Cust dropped a fly and he gave up 5 more hits in a row, that already bumps his ERA up by near half a run.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

OF flies are generic in stratomatic,

not in Justin Duchscherer’s starts. Watch him pitch – there’s a reason he gets so many routine fly balls that don’t go near the wall. Cutter + command = miss the sweet spot, curve + command = front foot rainmaker.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Again, the least you can do is regress to the man's own career averages

Based on his own career mark, a mark which includes this year’s stats, he should have surrendered 4 additional home runs this season.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

But I fully acknowledge he has to regress

I’m just saying that he has gotten where he is through incredible pitching and that post-regression he is an outstanding pitcher, not just a very good one. He can give up a full run more per 9 IP in the future and have a 2.78 ERA which, as a starter, would have led the league in 2007.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

who said chivalry was dead?

The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.

by rebus on Jul 24, 2008 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

I've never seen Nico go three posts in a row without making a joke

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's only because half my analysis qualifies

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

which half -- the anal, or the ysis?

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

If you're from the midwest,

you’ve probably done the first and then screamed the second to the heavens.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

"Why, sis, why?"

“Now ma, who’s also mah other sister, is gunna keeeeel us!”

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

I miss Stratomatic...

Imagine waking up at 2 a,m. and thinking of Bobby on Greyhound somewhere in the Texas wastelands..."Does your little iddy biddy back hurt, Bobby?! Does it, you SOB?!" -Alox

by Leopold Bloom on Jul 24, 2008 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

You don't have to miss it.

I play face to face with a small group of friends, but I am in 3 other leagues that play using the computer version of the game. Very easy to find computer only leagues that don’t take up too much of your time.

Had the all time greatest Strat-o-matic year in 2006 when I won the World Series in not only my face to face league but also in all 3 of my online leagues. That was an amazing run.

/end strat off topic sidebar

by AsFanInLA on Jul 24, 2008 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

I just went all ten year-old.

Imagine waking up at 2 a,m. and thinking of Bobby on Greyhound somewhere in the Texas wastelands..."Does your little iddy biddy back hurt, Bobby?! Does it, you SOB?!" -Alox

by Leopold Bloom on Jul 24, 2008 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

I just wet my pants too.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, I did that hours ago.

This was more refined…like a shart at a wedding.

Imagine waking up at 2 a,m. and thinking of Bobby on Greyhound somewhere in the Texas wastelands..."Does your little iddy biddy back hurt, Bobby?! Does it, you SOB?!" -Alox

by Leopold Bloom on Jul 24, 2008 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ten-year-olds, Dude

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

what's a pederast walter?

stfu, donny.

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 25, 2008 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

those are two entirely different assessments

And here’s where the stat/scout “dichotomy” is actually relevant.

The scout “he’s not that good” argument (doesn’t throw hard enough, no MLB track record as a starter [despite the fact that he was a starter in the minors]), as you say, absolutely falls apart when applied to Duke.

But the stat argument that his peripherals don’t support his ERA should hold water (though there’s no guarantee it will).

And the stat argument in this case actually refutes the scout argument—because, as nevermoor says, even his peripheral stats are really good (just not as out-of-this-world good as his ERA).

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 24, 2008 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Duke's stat line this year

His game log is amazing. He’s only allowed more than 2 ER in a start once this year. And that one start he allowed a whopping three runs total. Remarkable consistency.

Almost every starters’ ERA has a few ugly 5-6 ER games that hurt them.

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

He got a mulligan on his 5-run game

Courtesy of one John Joseph Cust.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's the same idea as Wins vs. Losses

A pitcher getting a Win is dependant on how well his offense performs. So there is a certain amount of luck and/or outcomes outside the pitchers control when it comes to wins & losses.

Likewise a picher’s hits allowed, which in turn lead to earned runs, depend , to a certain extent, on where his defense is playing, how good his defense is, etc. A line drive right at a center fielder or a a sharp grounder that an infielder has to dive for might not have been caught had the defense not been set up to make the play.

So there are stats out there that indicate exactly how lucky the pitcher is getting and they, for the most part, circle around what a ball does after its put in play. Strike outs completely limit what a ball does in play so that’s a tremendous peripheral stat to look at. Also Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) is useful because over a large sample size the amount of balls that fall for hits after they have been put in play regress to the statistical mean of .290 – .300. Yes even Roger Clemens has a career BABIP around .286. So if you see a guy with a BABIP of .242 (which is what Duke’s is sitting at) then you can conclude that he’s getting a little lucky, especially when you’re only striking out 5 batters per 9 innings.

by GusanoQuemador on Jul 24, 2008 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

The thing to note about Duke is how many of his outs

are lazy, routine fly balls or strikeouts, which are reliable outs, and how few are line drives and sharp grounders, which rely more on luck/superior defense.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

(I love fangraphs)

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

And yet he leads the majors in ERA -

GOD he’s good!

DUCKSHER FOR PREZIDINT!!!!!!

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

you missed a

-cindi

there

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 24, 2008 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

ha, qotm

The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.

by rebus on Jul 24, 2008 7:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Over a large enough

sample, hBIP regresses to a player’s career mean. The problem is a large enough sample is at the very least 5-6 full major league seasons.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 25, 2008 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

true, he has been on the DL

but the difference is he comes off the DL, while others like RH stays there the entire year.

by sf drift king on Jul 26, 2008 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think its about time Billy...

Busts out the old 3-way deal somehow involving the Sox and the Dodgers. If we could give up both Crosby and Duke or Crosby and Street and somehow get Kemp back in the deal…./drool.

by AthleticsReign on Jul 24, 2008 4:41 PM PDT reply actions  

agreed

kemp might be wishful thinking but we should get laroche somehow if we are gonna deal duke away… send street or embree or bocro too but find a 3 way deal to get us laroche

Cust is the new Jaha.

by johnjahafanclub on Jul 24, 2008 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

If we trade Duchscherer and don't have,

after trading Swisher, Harden, Blanton, and Duke, a kick-ass new SS, a kick-ass new 3Bman, or a bonafide clean up hitter then…Oy.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Who (not Hu) exactly is a kick-ass SS?

Hu himself? Escobar? Who (again not Hu) do we want to see at SS for the next five years? I’m not really excited about any of them.

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

There is a serious dearth of good shortstop prospects in baseball right now

Everywhere, I mean. Not just among these few teams.

I mean, who’s the best one out there? Jed Lowrie? He’s nice, but he doesn’t seem like a knock-yer-socks-off superstar type.

I’m still really miffed that the A’s didn’t get Vitters in the Cubs deal.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2008 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly

Petit and Pennington actually look downright attractive when you look at what’s happening with shortstop prospects around the league.

I don’t know anything about Pennington’s D though.

"The painting was a gift, Todd. I'm taking it with me." -Wedding Crashers

by notsellingjeans on Jul 24, 2008 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Solid enough SS defense

Has the tools, tends to rush and make mistakes he shouldn’t.

So sayeth the preseason tomes.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 25, 2008 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

I was thinking (posted above)

that a 3-way could involve Duke to the White Sox and Laroche and Poreda to the A’s. Not sure what pieces would fill that in, though.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 4:58 PM PDT reply actions  

Say No to Fields for Duke Movement

we should be able to get more for the MLB ERA leader than a 25 year old non-prospect who struck out 30% of his plate appearances and only hit 15% line drives in his “breakout” season. The only thing impressive about him are his home runs, most of which came in his home park which is a bigger hr hitters park than oakland.

Cust is the new Jaha.

by johnjahafanclub on Jul 24, 2008 5:12 PM PDT reply actions  

I posted this in the Rosterbation thread...

knowing that I may be submitting myself to Flags and CGVs,

but what about using Ziggy as trade bait?

by oakinboston on Jul 24, 2008 5:28 PM PDT reply actions  

And watch him post a lower ERA for someone else?

No thank you.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

it's a pretty decent idea

i wonder what his value is

"It's not my fault your team's so shitty." -Steve Friend, head coach, Chabot College, to Laney College's head coach, who asked why we scored so many runs after we beat Laney 30-3 in 2006

by flipgatey3 on Jul 24, 2008 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

I doubt Ziggy's value is all that high.

Ziggy, if you’re reading this, I still value you a lot.

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Is that "out of range"?

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

My conclusion: Given the fact that

“Duchscherer to the White Sox” talks are heating up, I fully expect to see Gallagher and Suzuki dealt to the Orioles. Which is why Greg Smith and Rajai Davis will be dealt to the Marlins. Somehow, Carlos Beltran will be ours for 10 minutes.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 6:29 PM PDT reply actions  

As long as he bats at least once in those 10 minutes.

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

The White Sox are interested in Street, yet Duchscherer is the one who might be dealt right now to them?

I think the person who heard it from the WhiteSox mistook “Former Ace Reliever” to mean Duke isntead of Street, and got the rumor wrong.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Jul 24, 2008 7:06 PM PDT reply actions  

Hmm - that sounds about right, actually

Especially considering that Buehrle, Vasquez, Danks, and Floyd are not exactly a weak link for the White Sox.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Poreda is great

I would hate to see Duke leave but Poreda is the real deal. Believe it or not I went to high school with him and the guy is awesome and a workhorse. He has gotten better every year. I don’t want to lose Duke, but Poreda will blow guys away in 3 years, guaranteed…

by stranahanahan on Jul 24, 2008 9:16 PM PDT reply actions  

We didn't mean to rain on your Poreda

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 24, 2008 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

qotm

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think I might do Street for Poreda and Fields

but I’d hope there would be a better hitting prospect I could find.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Jul 24, 2008 9:31 PM PDT reply actions  

I don't really want Fields playing for the A's,

but I’d trade for him to flip him. He needs to be gone within 10 minutes.

When you have a chance to get a guy like Sean Gallagher, you take it!

by WaddellCanseco on Jul 24, 2008 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

One problem with trading Duke to the White Sox

The Pale Hose don’t have the minor league talent to make a trade worthwhile.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 24, 2008 10:39 PM PDT reply actions  

Why is it so hard for us to get hitting prospects?

What happened to young pitching being impossible to obtain?

I mean, Swish for two stud pitchers (at the time, DLS was a stud) was like another day in the park…we didn’t even cherish it.

Now, I’d be ecstatic over Duke for 2 stud hitting prospects, and doubt it will happen.

by ohmangoAs on Jul 24, 2008 10:42 PM PDT reply actions  

CarGon is the only one who would qualify as a stud hitting prospect ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

besides Cust

The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.

by rebus on Jul 25, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

He's no longer a prospect ...

I meant at the time of the trade.

But the answer to your question, with rebus’s aside taken into account, is that the offense sucks (and Ellis would be better if his babip was closer to expected, which it should be over the balance of the season). As a CFer, Sweeney’s offense would be decent. A very solid LD% leading to a high batting average, despite no power to speak of. As a corner OFer, it’s rather poor. Being better than Emil Brown is no achievement.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

As much of a Sweeney fan as I am...

... you’re right. This is why I want the A’s to play him in CF, since CarGon’s bat will supposedly play well at a corner spot. I don’t want to see Sweeney stay in right and get set up for the front office perpetually trying to replace him with a more powerful bat.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thing is, since the A's have both of them,

if Sweeney’s glove is better in RF than it is in CF, and if Gonzalez’ glove in CF is better than Sweeney’s in CF, then why not just start them at positions where they can provide better defense – they still hit exactly once every nine turns, no more no less.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, that's sort of what I'm fearing is going to happen

Because then you have an elite CFer and an underwhelming corner RFer that you’re constantly looking to upgrade. Sort of like what devo is saying below.

Look, I’m not saying that’s not the way it SHOULD be, I’ve just become a fan of the guy and I don’t want to see him get kicked curbside.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

If Ryan Sweeney is starting in a corner position for the A's in 2 years' time,

they will not be a good team—because that means that the outfielders with bigger upside, i.e. Buck and Cunningham, have failed to develop and/or that the team has not acquired a legitimate slugger.

The guy is a classic tweener.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Buck and Cunningham are not really

bursting at the seems with upside…

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

They've got more than Sweeney does

Buck has already hit very well at the MLB level over an extended period. Cunningham only needs to reach—not exceed, just reach—his minor league numbers in the bigs to be a very good player.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sweeney his .296/.350/.452 as a 21-y/o in AAA

I do not at all approve of your method of just looking the highest OPS some player has put up in the minors. There is no reason to think, given that performance of Sweeney’s, that he could not have put up an .884 OPS playing 3/4 in A+ and 1/4 in AA as Cunningham did as a 21 year old. The fact that the Sox rushed him, and he therefore put up lower absolute numbers has to be accounted for. That year of Sweeney’s, and indeed this year, is better than anything Cunningham has done thus far. Cunningham has more power, sure, but his power is hardly fearsome, and his BA (and therefore obp) figures to be a good bit lower than Sweeney’s.

Buck’s HR and triples numbers last year were not sustainable.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, 7 HR

He’ll never do that again…

I have no idea what you’re talking about there. His doubles rate is suggestive of the potential to hit quite a few more home runs than he did in his first season.

As for Cunningham, I make no secret of the fact that I prefer very good numbers at an age-appropriate level (Cunningham has actually been young for his levels, but not as much so as Sweeney) to average numbers at a level for which the player is very young. There’s a reason for that. Guys who are rushed and prove barely adequate at higher levels routinely underplay their potential when they get to the big leagues.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Are Home Runs and doubles

really statisticly tied to eachother? Does one suggest the other and vice versa? Is there any literature on that at all?

by GusanoQuemador on Jul 25, 2008 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Doubles power at a young age

is definitely predictive of HR power going forward.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

is that true universally?

Or is that, per the discussion that’s been going on the last couple days, based largely on 1988-2005 stats?

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I could definitly see doubles from a young guy

turning into home runs with the help of little something synthetic.

by GusanoQuemador on Jul 25, 2008 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's about twice his career rate outside of last year

He can do it at some point, but it wasn’t realistic to expect him to do it this year or next year.

As to that last point, what is the evidence of that? I’ve never heard of that phenomenon. I’m not going to argue, as maybe it’s true, and coming up with some counterexamples doesn’t get us anywhere, but I’m skeptical. Is there some research on that?

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not aware of any quantitative research

although that doesn’t mean there isn’t any. I’ll freely admit that this is a hypothesis that I can’t prove (yet). But it fits what I’ve seen so far.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

So you're saying if Sweeney was destroying AA right now

And not just being pretty good in the majors, you would think more highly of him?

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 25, 2008 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Depends on what you mean by "destroying"

If he was hitting .300/.400/.500 in AA with 18 HR, I would definitely think more highly of his upside.

I don’t want to give the impression that Sweeney hitting in the majors has not impacted my opinion on him at all. It certainly makes it appear that he is more likely to be an effective player for future seasons. (It’s what you might call “building the mean to regress to.”) But hitting more or less like what you’re expected to hit doesn’t make me revise my opinion of your upside upward.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's 23 years old and performing at the big league level.

Cunningham is 2 levels lower and only 1 year younger. Buck, at the same age, apparently has forgotten how to hit.

I’m not saying Sweeney is going to be our own left handed version of Jason Bay, but damn—give the kid some credit for gettin the job done at the ML level already.

If his power was already developed, he’d be the damn ROY walking away and no way in hell would Chicago have given him up in the Swisher trade.

by mikev on Jul 25, 2008 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

If, in the A's front office's estimation, he didn't have the potential to hit as a plus corner outfielder,

they seriously miscalculated on the Swisher trade.

The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.

by rebus on Jul 25, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

They gave up Swisher for two B+ pitching prospects and a throw-in 4th outfielder

Was that a “serious miscalculation”? I guess it depends on what you view Swisher as. I wasn’t amazed by the return for him, but it wasn’t obviously terrible either.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not gonna try to say Sweeney was more than the #3 player (by a ways) in the trade,

but the A’s have to project considerable value from him if they’re going to get even value on Swisher. Swish’s combination of talent and contract is very, very valuable. Worth considerably more than Gio/DLS were. And I felt this way soon after the trade went down, not after the DLS injury.

If Ryan Sweeney was a throw-in (in the A’s opinion), I think the A’s got a raw deal. The pitching prospects were stellar, but they’re not worth Swisher on their own.

If the A’s believe Sweeney has a good chance of sticking as an above average corner outfielder or center fielder (as I believe they believe), then the deal’s about even in my eyes.

The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.

by rebus on Jul 25, 2008 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not really

I thought of Swisher as an “8” (a solid, good player, but not a perennial All-Star). DLS was rated a “9C” (a guy with a 50% chance of being an elite, #1-type pitcher) and Gonzalez an “8B” (a guy with a 70% chance of being a good, #2-type pitcher) in at least one survey I saw.

Do the math. That adds up to more value than Swisher.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think it's that simple.

I mean, TISNSTAAPP, and DLS is very early in the development process. Gio is good and a safer bet, but top hitting prospects are worth considerably more than top pitching prospects.

But I guess a lot of my argument hinges on my Swisher had not peaked with his 2006/2007 seasons. I’m betting you don’t see Swisher ever posting better numbers than those seasons… do you think he’s already peaked?

The 2009 A's draft pick... getting higher every game.

by rebus on Jul 25, 2008 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

No... I think he'll have a season or two better than that

but by and large, I see him as a mid-800s OPS outfielder with a good glove in a corner. Valuable? Sure. Stock your team with 9 guys like that and you’ve got a playoff roster, assuming your pitching isn’t horrible. But he’s not likely to have many truly elite seasons.

When did top hitting prospects become worth “considerably more than top pitching prospects?” If the GMs got together and agreed on that one, no one cc’ed me on the memo.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

PT...

Please remember this guy was ChiSox #1 Prospect only 2 years ago in ‘06.

I normally would agree with you, but I think he’ll pan out as a decent Corner OF. Low power, but OPS will be pretty good.

I would agree that if he’s our best OF in two years time, then we are in serious trouble, but a solid RF or 4th OF would be amazing.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/262878.html

This even has Cunningham further down the list (yes he is younger, but only by a year)

The Stockton Ports pitching staff is better than the Orioles.

by gdub171 on Jul 25, 2008 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's also from before he stagnated in 2007

while Cunningham kicked ass last year.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

true...

but so to write him off after 1 poor season + a pretty good (w/o power) start to his ML career is a bit short-sighted.

I just wanted to show that a lot can happen to nearly any prospect or has-been in a yr. just like you so aptly pointed out with Cunningham.

The Stockton Ports pitching staff is better than the Orioles.

by gdub171 on Jul 25, 2008 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Who's writing him off?

Is it writing off Jacoby Ellsbury to observe that he’s not likely to have too many 20 HR seasons? That Ryan Howard isn’t likely to steal 15 bases?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Buck is fairly tweensome himself

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

And, I should add, so was Cunningham before this season

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

still is...

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, he isn't

because Cunningham is apparently actually capable of playing center field well.

It may be that the A’s can’t optimize his skills, if Gonzalez has center field locked down—but that’s not his fault as a prospect.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Then he becomes the next Ryan Sweeney, per my comment above

A guy who can play CF if necessary but doesn’t wow you with his power at a corner spot. Perpetual upgrade candidate.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cunningham has massively more power than Sweeney does.

Cunningham is actually a player who I would expect to hit 20 HR at the MLB level when he is at the peak of his career. Sweeney is not.

Cunningham can be, not necessarily will be but can be, a 115 OPS+ guy in a corner spot with plus defense or in center with average defense.

Sweeney is a 105 OPS+ guy in a corner spot with solid defense or in center with bad defense. And I see very little reason to believe he is going to move forward from that. He’s Michael Cuddyer with a slightly different skillset.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's 23

There’s no reason to be so convinced that, not only won’t he improve but he’ll be worse.

by nevermoor on Jul 25, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Which defensive metric are you using?

I got BP in front of me, and it’s telling me that Cunningham has only been in the plus side of runs once—in high-A ball. Before that, he’s been decidedly in the minus range, including 8 in left field- left field—in 2006. He’s also apparently destined for LF (according to BP; Baseball America, however, is also unconvinced that he has CF-worthy defense) due to his relatively weak arm.

Sweeney, meanwhile has been around average, including +5 in CF and +6 in RF last season.

By the way, file this under the “I’m bored and want to discuss something” file.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

honest question

Are defensive metrics for the minor leagues (especially the lower you go) at all reliable/projectable?

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

I've never really considered that

Like the mindless drone I am, if BP tells me it’s so, then I believe it.

I don’t see why their metric wouldn’t be accurate for lower levels of play. What it doesn’t do is project, it just grades performance for that year. For what it’s worth, BP predicted that he would +1 in RF this season.

My contention was mostly that Cunningham doesn’t present defensive prowess that is clearly better than Sweeney’s. And in fact, I’d wager Sweeney’s is better, what with his arm strength.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

BP's defensive metric

isn’t really accurate even for the majors. And I’d guess that minor league parks are probably even less standardized than major league ones, which can also be problematic for defensive stats. So I wouldn’t give very much weight (if any) to those numbers.

That being said, I have no opinion at all on the relative merits of Cunningham’s and Sweeney’s defense.

"May a nit suck Cajun geese?" wonders Red. No, we see gnu Jack Cust in a yam.

by andeux on Jul 25, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

For the majors,

Dan Fox’s SFR does appear to be fairly accurate.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 25, 2008 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

The scouting report on Gonzalez

was that he wasn’t really a CFer in the making and I think they were wrong – hopefully they’re wrong on Cunningham too.

I’m not bothered by the problem, because if the A’s can get “three CFers” in the OF like they had in 2006, and if they all hit “well” – whether that means for average, power, OBP, whatever, it should work out great. And it looks like one can reasonably hope for the following to develop, give or take:

Gonzalez: .270/.340 with 25 HR, 40 2B

Sweeney: .290/.360 with 15 HR, 30 2B, 20 SB

Cunningham: .270/.360 with 20 HR, 25 2B, 15 SB

with defense along the lines of Kotsay/Payton/Bradley. Not bad.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

As I pointed out to 74mk the other day,

it definitely appears that the reports on Gonzalez’s CF defense were wrong. He has been outstanding as a center fielder this season. It could be a small sample size fluke, but we can’t tell that until we have a lot more data.

Although that’s unquestionably a good thing, it does have the unintended consequence of making both Sweeney and Cunningham (and Buck, for that matter) more expendable.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

+1

Reading the above comments… I was remembering that we did pretty well with 3 CF’s a couple of years ago. Defense is still undervalued it seems. (It also helps drive up the value of our pitching staff for trades)

The Stockton Ports pitching staff is better than the Orioles.

by gdub171 on Jul 25, 2008 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

To my recollection, the word on Gonzalez...

... is that he’d be fine in CF now, but there were worries that as he got older and filled out, he would lose a step (or 7) and make it unfeasible. If that’s the case, then we really won’t know until a few years down the road.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Which of BP's defensive metrics are you looking at?

Dan Fox’s SFR, or the FRAA stuff?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 25, 2008 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is sad...

... but to be honest, I don’t know. I’m looking at my Baseball Prospectus 2008 book, and the metric is literally just called “Defense.” I read the breakdown of it, and there’s no mention of its creator.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

that's FRAA

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

So you think Sweeney is significantly WORSE going forward than he's doing now?

Paul, that just doesn’t make any damn sense.

It’s one thing to think he’s peaked, it’s another to think this is far better than he’ll ever do again. Nothing about his performance now nor his pedigree suggests that’s a logical thought.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 25, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

What on earth are you talking about?

I didn’t say he was a long-term 90 OPS+ player. What’s your definition of “far better”?

I think he’s basically doing now what he will continue to do for the next 5 years or so. Viz, be average.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

It was not my impression that the defensive difference was that great,

but I could be wrong. I recall some ?s about Cunningham-in-CF at the time of the trade.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I was not as optimistic about it at the time

Since then the reports that I have read have caused me to become more optimistic. Unless I’m misreading things (always possible when you’re looking at subjective reports) he has improved somewhat as a center fielder this year.

Honestly, I don’t think there’s that much of a difference if they’re both in a corner spot, but Cunningham supposedly has more of the fundamentals (reads, jumps, etc) than Sweeney does as a center fielder. Their speed (eg theoretical range) is more or less the same.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Our offense will be better with CarGon in center

and whoever is better than Sweeney in right …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

I assume this is Sweeney

I think we are overrating him bigtime. The BABIP is too high… and assuming some regression, that might drop to a 105 OPS+. Which is good…but not stud.

Also, Sweeney was a reclamation project of sorts (certainly not at the peak of his value when we got him). I’m wondering when we’ll start getting top 100 hitters in bunches (I guess Cardenas and CGon can be analogous to Cahill and Anderson, Sweeney to Eveland)? Sweeney and Eveland have both overacheived.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m very happy with the trades, and glad Sweeney has been so good.

by ohmangoAs on Jul 25, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'd say Sweeney = Smith

Overperforming, does many things well but nothing exceptionally, will regress but will still be above average. (I fear Eveland will regress to below average.)

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

The BABIP is actually more or less exactly what we'd expect, given his LD%

which is very good but not unsustainably high.

An OPS+ of 105 is solid - for a CFer - not for a corner OFer. For a corner OFer it’s pretty piss-poor.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

The consensus is that Sweeney's power will come

If it does, he’ll be a good corner OFer – if it doesn’t, he really won’t because he’s not nearly as likely to hit .320 as he is to hit .280.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

What consensus is that?

I sure don’t think it will. I don’t really think most people here think it will. Sickels, for one, doesn’t think it will. To the extent that there’s a consensus, I’d say it’s the opposite. He could hit for power, but he’d have to radically change his swing, at which point he’d be a different hitter altogether.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

The same old story:

As he gets older and learns to better control the strike zone, he can start pulling pitches and putting a couple more out. We are talking about a 23-year-old kid who’s playing his first full season in the majors. While it’s true that most of the experts don’t have high hopes for his power, it’s not unreasonable to take a wait-and-see approach. Especially when he’s the best all-round player on the team.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

"Consensus" being various A's players, A's coaches,

and opposing players and coaches, who have said this year they believe Sweeney’s power will come as he matures physically over the next couple years. I tend to think that means something, even if I, like you, don’t see it.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Quotes from coaches (especially the A's coaches) are just about the last thing I'd credit

It’s impossible to tell if they actually believe what they’re saying, and it’s not like there’s even the slightest chance that Geren or TVB (or even the FO guys) are going to say “Yeah, we see Ryan as a 5-6 HR guy.”

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, but they don't have to say anything

It appears to be an opinion, among players/coaches inside the organization and outside, that he will develop more power. I don’t know if they’re right, but I know it has been volunteered by enough “on the field”ers that I tend to give it some credence.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

I thought Zonis brought up a good point in the other thread

That this “opinion” that players like sweeney develop power may be a remnant from the steriod era where a ton of players developed power regularly. It might not happen as often these days.

by GusanoQuemador on Jul 25, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

True - his long swing concerns me,

but at the same time he is hitting a lot of line drives that with lift and a little more strength (which could also produce more bat speed) might turn into HRs. I just hope he doesn’t hit the weight room and then the DL, like we’ve seen before.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

So he needs to hit the HGH then

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 25, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, no one's suggesting that we kick him out of the lineup....

He already controls the strike zone well, and I just think, looking at his swing, that he’d have to actually change it, not just “mature.”

Best all-around player on the team so far is Ellis. Sweeney and Suzuki are about even.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think he'll ever hit more than 20 homers in a season

But I don’t see why he can’t be a 45 doubles guy.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 25, 2008 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd take 20 a season

Hell yes I would.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think when people talk about "developing power,"

they mean 20 HR power more than 30 HR power.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

when I talk about "developing power,"

... I’m talking about Lew Wolff.

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

.300 as an A with 20 HR would be pretty sweet

How about we all agree he gets to play every day this year and we’ll see what happens in the future. He’s certainly one of the best hitters in our ‘08 lineup.

by nevermoor on Jul 25, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lew? Really?

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

The scouts were starting to very much question

that it ever would happen.

Also, the idea has been raised before that perhaps the CW’s expectations of added strength were colored by an era that has hopefully been left behind.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thing is,

I don’t think he lacks strength right now. He just doesn’t have a swing conducive to long fly balls. He hardly ever even “barely misses” a HR.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly

It’s not strength he lacks, it’s power - which is not the muscles necessary to put the ball over the fence, but the approach needed to actually execute that on a regular basis.

by Faust on Jul 25, 2008 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Piss poor is way over the top

He’s right around average for a corner OFer this year, and his corner OF D is well above average I would guess. I like the analogy I made awhile back that his upside is good-Kotsay (on offense), which is not so good as far as upside goes, but it would still be good, and I think he’s reasonably likely to achieve it for a few years.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

So you think he's already matched his upside?

Because good-Kotsay was about a 110-115 OPS+..

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 25, 2008 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Don't know about MikeA

but I would answer “yes” to that question.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Really? Because I think in the next couple years he'll be slugging at least 50 points higher

Maybe even more, since I expect him to eventually double his doubles production.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 25, 2008 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Isn't it safe to assume that for Buck too?

If we’re just assuming based on ARL, isn’t it safe to assume that Carlos Gomez is the best center fielder in the AL? Isn’t it safe to assume that Carlos Triunfel is the next Nomar?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

PT is (apparently) having a bad day

I usually agree with him, but between Webb > Feller and Cunningham > Sweeney I’m a bit confused.

by nevermoor on Jul 25, 2008 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cunningham >/ Sweeney

Sweeney has gone a long way to establish that he has the ability to be a high quality mlb 4th outfielder, a marginal starter at a corner or a solid starter in center (in terms of his bat). He has done nothing to suggest he can or will be much better than that.

Cunningham has not done any of that. He has not performed in AAA, much less the bigs. He may never b capable of handling higher levels with the productivity that Sweeney has. He has far more downside than Sweeney. He’s also hitting for power in AA at a level that Sweeney has never hit at any level—given the indication that it’s possible that he may some day be able to match that productivity in the bigs, giving him a greater upside but also greater downside.

As far as Feller v Webb, Webb has a long way to matching Feller’s longevity, but
Career ERA+:
Feller 122
Webb144

Career Best ERA+:
Feller 161
Webb 165

Years w/ ERA+ of 150+
Feller 3
Webb 3

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Clarifying my position--

I entirely agree that Cunningham has a greater downside than Sweeney does. He may be an ineffectual major league player.

(Of course, you could say that about almost anyone who’s never been past AA.)

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

there you go again with your highfalutin' attitude

You do realize, of course, that most of AN has never been past AA, don’t you? Who are you to judge what other AN’ers are capable of?!?

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

[checks dictionary]

Yep, just as I thought AN is past AA.

(There must be a “AN should be in AA” joke in their somewhere)

by AsFanInLA on Jul 25, 2008 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ziggy, of course, being the exception

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Don't forget Trainman

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

precisely

Who needs competence as long as everyone smiles? @('.')@

by monkeyball on Jul 25, 2008 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Career ERA+ = Worthless comparison

As Webb is in peak years, and Feller is hurt by tailing off at the end of his career.

Feller also lost a lot of his “prime” years to WWII, Webb didn’t.

Finally, Feller was throwing more like 300 innings a year than 200, which means he had to conserve effort in low leverage situations far more than Webb does.

If Webb has 12 more healthy dominant seasons and ends with a better ERA+ than Feller, we can talk about it then.

by nevermoor on Jul 25, 2008 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

The point ...

is that in terms of peak value—which is the only legitimate comparison that can be really made at this point, Brandon Webb, by any reasonable comparison is no worse and might very well be better.

To quote myself, “Webb has a long way to matching Feller’s longevity” - there’s no comparison there - but you can’t fault Webb for the era he’s pitching in—they don’t make pitchers differently today, they make managers differently today, but on an inning for inning basis, to this point in his career, Webb has been as good, if not better.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Depends on how you define peak

Webb’s best year was slightly better in ERA+ and K/BB (but with a slightly worse WHIP). Feller also threw 140 more innings – including 31 CG – and finished second in the MVP voting. This is not to fault Webb, but is relevant b/c he can put more effort into each pitch rather than saving himself to get through the game.

If you go beyond a season, it’s very hard to discuss since Feller was otherwise occupied in his 23-25 yo. seasons.

by nevermoor on Jul 25, 2008 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think Buck will still be a quality major leaguer

And I think Sweeney will be an above-average under-the-radar guy. A guy like him who is 23 and hitting tons of line drives is bound to hit more doubles as he matures. That’s pretty simple scouting, I think.

20 HRs might be a bit lofty, especially in Oakland. But 45 doubles isn’t an absurd thought by any means.

I just don’t know why you think he’s peaked, but a guy like Cunningham has so much more room to improve.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 25, 2008 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have never seen anything that suggests that LD rate is correlated with doubles

If it was, Michael Young and Chone Figgins would lead MLB in doubles every season. Magglio Ordonez is a great doubles hitter who has a line drive rate which is not greatly above average.

I think Sweeney has peaked because there isn’t much else he can do with his skill set. He’s not going to hit at Ichiro levels and without radically changing his approach at the plate, he’s not going to go much past Ichiro on power numbers either. The only place I really see room for improvement for Sweeney is his walk rate.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hijacking this part of the thread to reply to stuff above...

... if doubles-turning-into-homers is your jam, both BP and BA make specific mention that Cunningham’s relatively low doubles numbers don’t project to improved HR power in the bigs. Again, pre-’08,

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

I know

They don’t have to, though. He’s already hitting for the kind of power that he needs to in the majors.

He is not likely to turn into an Utley-esque 30+ HR guy, however.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would think that LD rate would be

correlated with doubles when playing on artificial turf. Which if true, makes him a valuable player to the Blue Jays in that Embree for Halliday deal we were kicking around.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, this "peak" talk confuses me

The “peak” years are generally 28-32. I don’t see how the heck we can say this peaked at 23 in his first full season in the majors.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Jeff Mathis appears to have peaked at age 20

in A-ball.

There’s no iron law says a player has to keep improving until his 28th birthday.

In any case, I think “plateaued” would be better terminology than “peaked,” as I don’t think Sweeney is about to start declining either.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fair enough

There are without doubt players you can point to who plateau very early. With the type of athleticism and raw ability Sweeney has to work with, though, I’d like to think that he’d be able to fulfill his power potential—not 30 HR, mind you, but somewhere closer to 20—as he ages and fills out. And gets even more experience at the MLB level.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

I should clarify:

Not “power potential,” but rather the early forecasts of his power development.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

I meant in terms of OPS

I think .820-.830 (distributed more less like Kotsay’s) is his upside as far as OPS. And I definitely think he’s pretty close to his upside as far as batting average. I’d be surprised if he finishes the year over .300 or if he does so next year.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed - I think his upside offensively is

a healthy Kotsay (.300 with 15 HRs, and a fair number of doubles and walks), but that he does not have Kotsay’s defensive ability – maybe he could become to RF what Kotsay was to CF, but I doubt even that. I do think he can be, and already is, a solid RFer, though.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Over the top, yes ...

but comparing him to the average includes a lot of PAs from guys like Rajai Davis, which pulls down the comparison quite a bit. If you compare him to starting corner OFers, which for this exercise, we’ll define with guys with at least 300 PAs, you’ll find that the average corner OF starter had an OPS of .799, compared to which, he is quite sub par offensively.

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

well,

1)He’s pretty much exactly at the median for starting corner ofers.
2)The park factor takes him most of the way from where he is now to .799
3)His eqa is better than his ops/ops+

So, I think if you took the 28 starting corner OFers, he’d be 13th-15th just with offense, and better than average with defense.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

well,

1) he’s 15th of 24 (23 qualified plus Sweeney) in OPS
2) yeah, about half way there
3) that is a pretty sweet eqa …

Yeah, he’s decent … he’s certainly not hurting the team … but if this is really all he has to offer, he’s always going to be someone a competetive time is trying to upgrade …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I definitely agree with that

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

My real concern is that between him, Buck and perhaps Cunningham

we’ll be a tad too well stocked with high end fourth outfielders, but outside of CarGon, nobody who is really an asset as a starter …

I confess, I may have been doing what I often criticize others for in labeling pitchers - the idea that there are only 8 or 10 #1 pitchers out there - no, there are 30, some are an asset, most, not so much.

Similarly, there are 28 starting corner OFers—but only 10 or so that you really want …

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

If there were significant platoon differentials,

you could hope for a Sweeney/Cunningham or Buck/Cunningham platoon to put up the kind of offensive numbers you want in a corner OF spot, with excellent defense. But so far that hasn’t really appeared to be the case.

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

You're overstating your case

A 105 OPS+ for a corner outfielder is average. Positional adjustment for a corner outfielder is -5 runs.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2008 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

see above ...

"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback

by devo on Jul 25, 2008 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

The only reason to trade Duke right now...

... is because with that shiny ERA, his value will never be higher. Ya sell high. This ain’t sellin’ high.

Ryan Sweeney: I probably irrationally embraced him before you did.

by Joey C. on Jul 25, 2008 11:05 AM PDT reply actions  

I'm starting to doubt that this trade happens

Because I think Joe Crede has been, or will soon be, placed on the DL. If that happens, I’d expect Fields to be called up.

Could be a blessing, since I think trading Duke could bring more.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 25, 2008 12:43 PM PDT reply actions  

From mlb.com's transactions page

Chicago White Sox
Placed INF Joe Crede on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to July 22, with back lumbar inflammation; Recalled INF Josh Fields from Triple-A Charlotte

I’d say this deal is pretty much dead at this point.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on Jul 25, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

wheeeeeeeeee

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sobering coda to Sweeney discussion:

XBH/PA:
Sweeney: 5.4%
Kendall: 5.8%

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 25, 2008 5:59 PM PDT reply actions  

GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!!!!

{checks self into institution}

I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal

by Nico on Jul 25, 2008 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

So, after 359 flippin' posts, the answer is ...

“Never mind?”

Really?

The meaning of life is not so much 'found,' as it is 'made.' --Opus

by The Dogfather on Jul 25, 2008 6:31 PM PDT reply actions  

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